Market Report: Vehicle Acquisition Trends in European ... · PowerPoint Sponsor. Ferrari 308 GTSi QV. Pontiac Firebird Trans Am. PASSENGER CAR MARKETS AROUND THE GLOBE. Shares of

Market Report: Vehicle

Acquisition Trends in

European Fleet

Management

Marc OdiniusManaging Director

Dataforce GmbH

PowerPoint Sponsor

Ferrari 308 GTSi QV

Pontiac Firebird Trans Am

PASSENGER CAR MARKETS AROUND

THE GLOBE

Shares of the of global Total Market 2018

33%

21%

18%

1%

86 mio. car sales

33%

21%

18%

1%

Shares of the global True Fleet Market 2018

15 mio. new car

registrations 36%

15%

2%

11%

Passenger car markets in comparison

10.6% 30.3%27.5%7.7%

AustraliaEU-15*ChinaUSA

*EU-15: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy,

Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

True Fleet share 2018

SwitzerlandAustria

SwedenNetherlands

PolandBelgium

TurkeyArgentinaAustralia

MexicoSpain

RussiaCanada

ItalyBrazil

FranceUnited Kingdom

GermanyJapan

USAChina

Volume

Passenger car markets in comparison

16.4%12.8%2.0%

AustraliaEU-15*USA

*EU-15: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy,

Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

Share of Dealer Registrations in 2018 Percentages

12.8%

19.9%

0% 25%

USA

Denmark

Belgium

United Kingdom

Finland

Spain

Italy

EU-15

Switzerland

Netherlands

Poland

France

Czech Republic

Australia

Austria

Germany

10.6%

China

Share of Dealer registrations by countryPassenger car registrations 2018

12.8%

16.4%

19.9%

0% 25%

USA

Denmark

Belgium

United Kingdom

Finland

Spain

Italy

EU-15

Switzerland

Netherlands

Poland

France

Czech Republic

Australia

Austria

Germany

Dealers‘ Total Market Share

16.6%

26.8%43.0%

29.5%

0% 20% 40%

Maximum dealership registration ratio from one

brand inside the Top 10

321

182

684

0 700

Dealer registration volume (in thd.)

Markets in comparisonTop 10 True Fleet Brands

Top 10

Market Share83,0%

Australia

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

74,0%

USA

No. of

brands

share >

0.5%

26

69,4%

EU-15

No. of

brands

share >

0.5%

28

51,0%

China

No. of

brands

share >

0.5%

40

No. of

brands

share >

0.5%

21

Markets in comparisonTop 10 True Fleet Brands

Top 10

Market Share

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

74,0%

USA

No. of

brands

share >

0.5%

26V

W

BM

W

MER

C…

AU

DI

FOR

D

SKO

DA

OP

EL

REN

A…

SEA

T

VO

LVO

FIA

T

VW

FOR

D

AU

DI

MER

CED

…

BM

W

JEEP

PEU

GEO

T

REN

AU

LT

TOYO

TA

PEU

GEO

T

REN

AU

LT

CIT

RO

EN VW

FOR

D

MER

C

BM

W

AU

DI

TOYO

TA

FIA

T

No. of

brands

share >

0.5%

19

83.3% 84.2%69,3%

No. of

brands

share >

0.5%

23

No. of

brands

share >

0.5%

24

Germany FranceItaly

ALTERNATIVE FUEL TYPE

DEVELOPMENT

What are the chances for success?

Market shares of fuel typesPassenger car registrations 2018

75%

24%

Private

45%

53%

True Fleets

Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid CNG/ LPG



39%

52%

True Fleets

66%

26%

Private

Development of Diesel in DetailPassenger car registrations since January 2016

Total Market True Fleets Private

68%

48%

38%

23%

49%

32%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan/ 16 Jul/ 16 Jan/ 17 Jul/ 17 Jan/ 18 Jul/ 18 Jan/ 19

-19 %-points

-18 %-points

-16 %-points

The Development of HybridsPassenger car registrations

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

True Fleets Private

The Development of BEVsPassenger car registrations

True Fleets Private

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



39%

52%

True Fleets

66%

26%

Private


75%

24%

Private

45%

53%

True Fleets




39%

52%

True Fleets

66%

26%

Private

Fuel type sharesTotal Market registrations 2018

56.6%

93.9% 94.0%

65.4%

36.1%33.2%

59.5%

7.3%

0%

100%

Petrol Diesel Alternative


94%

True Fleets

94%

Private



78%

13%

True Fleets

96%

Private


Total Market Volume of Hybrids and BEVsTotal Market registrations 2018

0

1,200,000

Electric Hybrid

0

500,000

True Fleet Volume of Hybrids and BEVsTrue Fleet registrations 2018

Electric Hybrid

BEV Models Ranking 2018Share of total True Fleet BEV Volume

17.4%

SMART FORFOUR

HYUNDAI IONIQ

SMART FORTWO

JAGUAR I-PACE

TESLA MODEL X

VW GOLF

TESLA MODEL S

BMW I3

NISSAN LEAF

RENAULT ZOE 28.1%

TOYOTA MIRAI

HONDA CLARITY

KIA SOUL

BMW I3

NISSAN LEAF

TESLA MODEL X

TESLA MODEL S

CHEVROLET BOLT

CHEVROLET VOLT

TESLA MODEL 3

EU-15 USA

4,303

TOYOTA MIRAI

HONDA CLARITY

KIA SOUL

BMW I3

NISSAN LEAF

TESLA MODEL X

TESLA MODEL S

CHEVROLET BOLT

CHEVROLET VOLT

TESLA MODEL 3

BEV Models Ranking 2018True Fleet Volume

13,718

SMART FORFOUR

HYUNDAI IONIQ

SMART FORTWO

JAGUAR I-PACE

TESLA MODEL X

VW GOLF

TESLA MODEL S

BMW I3

NISSAN LEAF

RENAULT ZOE

EU-15 USA

Detailed look at Tesla within BEV segmentTrue Fleet passenger car registrations, share of BEV volume

EU-15 USA

2014/Jan 2015/Jan 2016/Jan 2017/Jan 2018/Jan 2019/Jan

0%

75%

2014/Jan 2015/Jan 2016/Jan 2017/Jan 2018/Jan 2019/Jan

Model S Model X Model 3

Total PC market registrations for EU-15Passenger car registrations – Tesla Models

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

TESLA MODEL 3 TESLA MODEL S TESLA MODEL X

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

RULES & REGULATION - POLITICS

What do we need for success?

OFFERING


MINDSET


RULES & REGULATION - POLITICS


2040

203020302040

2040

2040

2025

2030

2030

Bans of Petrol and Diesel Sales

Amount of worldwide climate lawsExamples of countries introducing Petrol and Diesel sales bans

EV Regulations and Sales SubsidiesExcerpt of countries

- Clean vehicle

rebate

- Federal Tax

Credit

Exemptions for zero-

emission vehicles

affecting acquisition, tax

benefits ownership,

company cars

- Exemptions from 25%

VAT (purchase and

leasing)

- no charges on toll

roads

Governmental and

municipial purchase

subsidies (major

subsidy cuts of 50%

from January 2019)

Number of charging stations

67,000

300,000

1,000

125,000

OFFERING


1.6

1.8

2.02.1 2.1

2.32.4

2.4 2.5

1

2

3

Powertrain study 2018: Ratings of BEVsAnswers of German Fleet Managers

Driver‘s

acceptance

Operational

costs

Charging

duration

Charging

management

Acquisition

costs

Charging

infrastructure

Model

diversityRangeCar

convenience

A BLUEPRINT FOR ALTERNATIVE FUEL

TYPES?

SUVs

http://www.google.de/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwix9ou7tMfTAhWLcBoKHch-A2cQjRwIBw&url=http://www.motortrend.ca/en/news/2017-motor-trend-suv-of-the-year-introduction/&psig=AFQjCNEQstrZYTLsoEnsGS3-GbDCwqqUzg&ust=1493477791015391

The development of SUV’s market shareUSA passenger car registrations, Total Market

0%

50%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SUV

PC CompactPC Medium

PC Small

Pickups

PC Medium-LargeMPV

TOTAL MARKET

The development of SUV’s market shareUSA passenger car registrations, True Fleets

0%

50%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SUV

PC CompactPC Medium

PC Small

Pickups

PC Medium-LargeMPV

TRUE FLEETS

The development of SUV’s market shareEU-7 passenger car registrations, True Fleets

0%

50%

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

SUV

PC Compact

PC MediumPC Small

PC Mini

PC Medium-LargeMPV

The development of SUV’s market shareEU-7 passenger car registrations, True Fleets

26 2722 22

85

136

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

SUV PC Small PC Compact PC Medium

Number of models with alternative fuel typesEU-7 True Fleet registrations, registration volume > 100 per month

0

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 until 2024

Electric Hybrid PHEV

75 new

BEV

models

MINDSET


What range is sufficient for you to go electric

1) Up to 200km

2) 201-300km

3) 301-400km

4) 401-500km

5) 501 +km

6) Not at all

Minimum range of BEVsAnswers of German Fleet Managers within powertrain study 2018

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 160 310 450 600 800

Range in km

1. 15% of respondents satisfied

with a range upto 250 km

2. 50% would be satisfied with

range of upto 400-500 km

3. 80% pleased with range up to

600 km 1.

2.

3.

Which fuel type share in 10 years?Answers of German Fleet Managers within powertrain study 2018

4%

5%

11%

13%

31%

23%

13%

CNG / LPG

Fuelcell

Hydrogen

Hybrid

BEV

Diesel

Petrol

CO2 SCENARIOS

Regulation of CO2 emissions

123

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Reality 2018 (Case Study Germany: average CO2 by market segments)

95g CO2

Target 2021

True Fleets Private

Short-Term Rental Dealerships/ Manufacturer

Characteristics of the

market:

- About 60% diesel

share in True Fleets

- Decent share of

Medium cars,

Executive cars,

SUVs

2021 CO2 targets and current values for

Germany

FCA91.1

91.7

Renault-Nissan92.1

92.6 Ford93

94.3 VW96.3

100.3 Daimler100.7

103.5

JLR132

95

140

Hyundai-Kia121

118PSA117

124

Toyota101

122

BMW124

131

Volvo135

164

80

100

120

140

160

180

CO2-target 2021 Current CO2

− EU Average 95 g/km

NEDC

− Penalty: 95 Euro per

gram and registered

car

− OEM target depending

on average vehicle

weight

Diesel down, SUVs up with 2018‘s fuel type sharesCase Study Germany

95

120

80

90

100

110

120

130

2018 2019 2020 2021

1.2%

1.4%

1.3%

PHEV

Hybrid

BEV

∑ 3,9%

14% electrificationCase Study Germany

95

116

80

90

100

110

120

130

2018 2019 2020 2021

4.0%

6.0%

3.5%

PHEV

Hybrid

BEV

∑ 13,5%


95

113

80

90

100

110

120

130

2018 2019 2020 2021

5.9%

7.9%

4.6%

PHEV

Hybrid

BEV

∑ 18,4%


95

109

80

90

100

110

120

130

2018 2019 2020 2021

7.8%

13.6%

5.6%

PHEV

Hybrid

BEV

∑ 26,9%


95

101

80

90

100

110

120

130

2018 2019 2020 2021

11.5%

24.9%

8.6%

PHEV

Hybrid

BEV

∑ 45,0%


95

80

90

100

110

120

130

2018 2019 2020 2021

11.5%

26.7%

13.6%

PHEV

Hybrid

BEV

1.2%

1.4%

1.3%

PHEV

Hybrid

BEV

Now

Target

WHAT IF ALL CARS WERE BEV?

What if all cars were BEVs

- 115 mio tons CO2

- 281 k tons NOX

+ 90.000.000.000 kW/h

= 90 TerraWatts

What does 90 TWh get you?

You could power 1,363,636,363 of the latest

Samsung TV for a year !


You can power 750,000,000 of the latest LG

washing machines for a year !


Or we could send Marty McFly back to the

future 74,380 times

Additional powersources for 90 TWh

20,642

29,844

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

3,708,543

1,640,000

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000

13

104

0 50 100 150

51

98

0 50 100 150

Needed Existing

Annual electricity consumption (TWh)

4090

597

196

91

90

2

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

USA 2017

Germany 2017

2015 total renewable energy production

2010-2015 renewable energy growth

45 Mil. BEVs

1 Mil BEVs

LAST SLIDES I PROMISE

Confidence of consumers and the industryEU confidence indicators

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19

Consumer Industry

True Fleet keeps high level of volumeEU-7 passenger car registrations

0 3,500

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Further potential in fleetEU-7 passenger car registrations (2012 = 100)

118114

126135

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

True Fleets Private Market

Rentals (Short-Term) Dealer & Manufacturer

Which fuel type share in 10 years?Answers of German Fleet Managers within powertrain study 2018

4%

5%

11%

13%

31%

23%

13%

CNG / LPG

Fuelcell

Hydrogen

Hybrid

BEV

Diesel

Petrol

Thank You

Marc OdiniusCEO, Dataforce

[email protected] +491639538000

Looking forward to touch base

Title

PowerPoint Sponsor

Documents

Market Report: Vehicle Acquisition Trends in European ... · PowerPoint Sponsor. Ferrari 308 GTSi QV. Pontiac Firebird Trans Am. PASSENGER CAR MARKETS AROUND THE GLOBE. Shares of