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7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
1/24
MARKET PULSEOctober 2015
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7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
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Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.
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7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
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LASTTRANSACTION
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7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
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More thanHalf AreSelling atoraboveAsking Price
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
27%
47%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
J a n - 1
4
F e b
- 1 4
M a r - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
M a y - 1
4
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y - 1
5
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
Over Below At
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SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
5/24
BuyersAre Paying aSmaller Premiumover theAskingPrice WhenComparedtoSeptember
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
8.4%
11.0%
8.9%
0.0%2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Average
5
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
6/24
PercentagesPaidBelowAskingPriceWas the Highestsince Dec 2014
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12%-13%-11%-11%-11%-11% -7.0 -11% -9.6 -11%-10%-12%
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SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
7/24
MarketRemainedCompetitiveasTwo-thirds of Properties Received MultipleOffers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
51%
63% 64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
J a n - 1
4
F e b
- 1 4
M a r - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
M a y - 1
4
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y - 1
5
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
7
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
8/24
NumberofOffers ReceivedWasthe Highest inSixMonths
0.00.5
1.0
1.5
2.02.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
J a n - 1
4
F e b
- 1 4
M a r - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
M a y - 1
4
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y - 1
5
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
2.3 2.4
3.2
Average
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?
8
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
9/24
One-third ofPropertiesHadTheir Listing PriceReduced, the Highest in the Last 12 Months
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
33%
27%
32%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y - 1
5
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
9
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
10/24
AlmostHalfofBuyerswerePreviousRenters,Highest since March 2014
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
31%
41%
48%
10
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
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Sellers Becoming Renters Remained Flat
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18% 18%18%
11
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
12/24
Share of First-time Buyers Increased
Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?
29%
34%31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%25%
30%
35%
40%45%
J a n - 1
4
F e b
- 1 4
M a r - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
M a y - 1
4
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y - 1
5
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
% First-time Buyers Long Run Average
12
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
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International BuyersRose for theSecondMonth
Q:Was the buyer an internationalclient (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
7.6%7.0%
10.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
J a n - 1
4
F e b
- 1 4
M a r - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
M a y - 1
4
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y - 1
5
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
% International Buyers Long Run Average
13
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
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MajorityPurchases are Primary Residences
Q:What was the intended use of the property?
77%
62% 66%
16%
28% 23%
0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%
70%80%90%
100%
J a n - 1
4
F e b
- 1 4
M a r - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
M a y - 1
4
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y - 1
5
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
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SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
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MARKETCONDITIONS
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7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
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REALTORSContinued toReceiveFewer FloorCallssince the PeakinApril2015
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
F e b
- 1 4
M a r - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
M a y -
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y -
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
Last MonthDown Flat Up
16
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
17/24
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsSlowing Down
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%50%
60%
70%
F e b
- 1 4
M a r - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
M a y - 1
4
J u n - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
A u g - 1
4
S e p - 1
4
O c t - 1
4
N o v - 1 4
D e c - 1 4
J a n - 1
5
F e b
- 1 5
M a r - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
M a y - 1
5
J u n - 1
5
J u l - 1 5
A u g - 1
5
S e p - 1
5
O c t - 1
5
Last MonthDown Flat Up
17
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
18/24
Open HouseTrafficContinuetoDip, Partly Due toSeasonality
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
Down Flat Up
18
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
19/24
Auctions Declining
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-1
Down Flat Up
19
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
20/24
AllCashPurchasesContinuetoDecline, asHomePricesRemain onanUpwardTrend
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
41%
35%
25%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
40%45%50%
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15
Down Flat Up
20
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
21/24
Four of FiveREALTORSBelieve MarketConditions
will Either Improve or Remain theSame in 2016
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
18%
51%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Worsen Same Improve
21
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
22/24
Why REALTORSExpectMarketConditions toWorsen
Prices are nearly as high as they were justbefore the last crash
Gap between seller expectation and buyeraffordability
Loan requirements becoming more andmore stringent
Election years seem to cause more uncertainty
Q:Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
22
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
23/24
REALTORSAreConcernedAboutAffordabilityandInventory
23
2%
5%
2%
4%
6%
9%
12%
16%
21%
22%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
No Concerns
Other
Policies & Regulations
Housing bubble
Rising Interest Rates
Lending & financing
Slow down in economic growth
Home prices overinflated
Lack of Inventory
Decline in housing affordability
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public
24/24
What are REALTORSSaying?
We are in a bubble again Alameda
Multiples are down, though still prevalent Los Angeles
There seems to be more distressed sales with reversemortgages - Madera
Lack of water has stopped future development in its tracks San Luis Obispo
Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?
24