Market Positioning and Pricing Analysis - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/0e6df6b9501/87ba1a0b-337f-4ac4... · 2017-03-09 · Construction Details – 2015-2016 Rehab The

EXECUTIVE HOUSE APARTMENTSJeffersonville, IN

Market Positioning and Pricing Analysis

EXECUTIVE HOUSE APARTMENTS

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INVESTMENT

OVERVIEW

Aaron JohnsonVice President InvestmentsLouisville, KYDirect (502) 329-5920Mobile (502) [email protected]

Disclosure – Aaron Johnson is also one of the owners of Executive House

PROPERTY OVERVIEW


PROPERTY OVERVIEW

Louisville has become the new investment target due to its high rent growth, strong job formation, and impressivedowntown expansion (New YUM Center, 2 new bridges, Hotels, Medical expansions, etc.) This property ispoised to grow from that stature.

Executive House Apartments offers quality living in a very convenient location, located in a quiet neighborhoodacross the river just minutes from downtown Louisville. Located in Jeffersonville, Indiana these apartments lieclose to new retail developments and the main Louisville downtown economic drivers. The newly completedbridges over the Ohio River (Dec. 2016) opened up new paths to downtown Louisville, and brought a newpotential pool of higher income tenants. Average rents for 1BD units this close to downtown average $690.

Half of the Executive House apartments (the 810 Building) were completely rehabbed in 2016 (Details on nextpage) $500,000 was spent to tear out and completely change the character of the units - from new kitchens andremoving walls, to adding washer/dryers.

All tenants pay personal electric. The 810 building residents also pay their water & sewer.

PROPERTY OVERVIEW

� Beautiful Park and Playground a Block Away� Recently Rehabbed� On Site Parking� Washer / Dryers in half of the units� Close to Downtown Louisville

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Construction Details – 2015-2016 RehabThe 810 building was completely rehabbed down to the bare studs. The insulation, drywall,electrical, HVAC system, cabinets, fixtures, doors, and windows were replaced or remodeled.Interior walls were removed to open up the kitchens as well as individual stackable washer dryerunits were added to each apartment. Each apartment was separately metered for both electric andwater usage. Flooring was replaced with ceramic tile and vinyl plank flooring for durability as wellas longevity. The plumbing in this building was replaced with high performance flexible water lines.The HVAC systems were replaced and designed to be high efficiency units that would decrease theoverall utility costs for tenants. The below grade units were completely waterproofed with a lifetimeguarantee. These units were also expanded to accommodate additional square footage and extrabedrooms. The roof was replaced with a 30 year three dimensional shingle that has a separatefirewall in the middle of the building. The rehab for this building alone was well over $500,000.00.All major components and mechanicals were replaced in this building to reflect today’s buildingstandards.The 811 building has also benefited from rehab to the majority of the building with each unitreceiving a high efficiency HVAC system. Several of the units were completely rehabbed down tothe studs while some of the units received a cosmetic rehab with new paint, carpet, appliances, etc.The hallways were completely tiled in ceramic and all fixtures were replaced. The below grade unitswere waterproofed with a lifetime guarantee. Several units have been rehabbed upon tenant turns.All units are scheduled to be rehabbed when the units are vacated. $236,000.00+ has been spentin overall renovations to date.

2015 – 2017 REHAB DETAILS

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FINANCIAL

ANALYSIS

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS


RENT ROLL SUMMARY

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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS


OPERATING STATEMENT

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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS


CURRENT PRICING

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PRICING DETAIL

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MARCH2017

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MARKETOVERVIEW

MARKET OVERVIEW


Louisville Metro

Market HighlightsCentralized location� Approximately 60 percent of U.S. cities are within a one-day drive of the metro.

Major distribution center� Louisville’s strategic location in the country has made it a hub for the logistics and

distribution industries.

The Derby� Every year, attention is focused on Louisville when it hosts the Kentucky Derby,

the most acclaimed horse-racing event in the world.

LOUISVILLE

The Louisville metro comprises seven counties in north-central Kentucky and fivein southern Indiana. The Ohio River passes through the region, providing a wideand vast flood plain, surrounded by hilly terrain at the metro’s perimeter. TheKnobs region, in southern Louisville, hosts the Jefferson Memorial Forest and islargely undeveloped. With few natural barriers to limit outward expansion, themetro has recorded 21 percent population growth since 1990.

Geography

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MARKET OVERVIEW

Interstates 64 and 65 run through Louisville, while I-71 has its southern terminus there. All three of thesehighways intersect just east of downtown, in an area referred to as “Spaghetti Junction.” I-264 and I-265 arebeltways for Louisville motorists, and construction has begun on more bridges to span the Ohio River and linkthe cities of Louisville and Jeffersonville.

Most air traffic in Louisville is handled at Louisville International Airport, which houses the UPS Worldport globalair hub. Additional air service is provided by Bowman Field and Clark Regional Airport. CSX, Norfolk Southernand regional carriers operate freight rail service. On the Ohio River, the McAlpine Locks and Dam assistmaritime shipping. More than 50 million tons of cargo pass through the locks annually. Regional transportationin and around Louisville is offered by the Transit Authority of River City (TARC), which operates the area’s busnetwork.

Infrastructure

The Louisville Metro is:� 100 miles from Cincinnati� 115 miles from Indianapolis� 175 miles from Nashville� 260 miles from St. Louis

Airports� Louisville International Airport� Bowman Field and Clark Regional Airport

Major Roadways� Interstates 64, 65, 71, 264 and 265� U.S. 31, 42, 6 and 150

Rail� Freight – CSX and Norfolk Southern� Regional Freight – Paducah and LouisvilleRailway and Louisville and Indiana Railroad

Ports� Port of Louisville

Louisville is home to nearly 1.3 million residents residing within Indiana’s Harrison, Washington, Clark, Floydand Scott counties, as well as Kentucky’s Jefferson, Spencer, Oldham, Trimble, Meade, Nelson, Shelby,Hardin, Larue, Bullitt and Henry counties. Louisville in Kentucky is the region’s largest city with more than617,400 citizens, followed by Jeffersonville, Indiana, which has 46,000 residents.

Metro

Largest Cities in Metro by PopulationLouisville 617,400

Jeffersonville 46,000

New Albany 37,200

Jeffersontown 27,300

Clarksville 22,000

St. Matthews 17,800

* ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; U.S. CensusBureau; Experian

LOUISVILLE


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MARKET OVERVIEW

Although the region’s economy has been historically dominated by the shippingand rail industries, contemporary Louisville boasts a well-diversified economyfocused on advanced manufacturing, logistics, life sciences and healthcare,among other industry sectors. The metropolitan area is headquarters to threeFortune 500 companies, including Humana, Yum Brands and Kindred Healthcare.In recent decades, the area has attracted numerous medical and healthcareorganizations. Louisville’s downtown medical research campus draws some ofthe nation’s top medical talent.

In line with the metropolitan area’s legacy in the transportation industry,Louisville’s economy still benefits from being centrally located in the UnitedStates. It is within a one-day drive of 60 percent of U.S. cities. The UPSWorldport global air-freight hub at Louisville International Airport makes theregion an important player in global shipping and logistics. Automotive andappliance manufacturing are also part of Louisville’s economic fabric, as is thespirits industry. In addition, roughly one-third of all bourbon is produced in thearea.

The Louisville economy is accelerating, with the region’s gross metropolitanproduct on the rise. GMP is forecast to grow by approximately 3.1 percent thisyear. Local retail sales will continue to increase this year, expanding by 4.5percent. This figure is slightly below the national average of 5.4 percent.

Economy

LOUISVILLE


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MARKET OVERVIEW

Louisville has evolved from a transportation- and logistics-dominated employment landscape to a more diversified economy. Still, some of the most important employers inthe metropolitan area are in transportation services. UPS’ central hub at Louisville International Airport provides a dynamic shipping and distribution industry to the region.UPS alone employs more than 20,000 workers. Additionally, Amazon is rapidly expanding operations in the Louisville metro.

The metropolitan area’s lively healthcare industry is also a major source of Louisville residents’ income. Numerous private hospitals and health insurance providers aboundin the region. Humana, Northern Healthcare, KentuckyOne Health and the Baptist Healthcare System comprise some of the largest local names in these industries. Humanaitself provides more than 12,000 regional jobs. The continued expansion of Louisville’s downtown medical research campus will likely attract an even greater presence ofhealthcare firms into the area.

Among the metro’s 75,900 jobs in manufacturing, many stem from automotive and household appliance fabrication. Ford Motor Co. employs approximately 9,000 workersat its Kentucky Truck Plant and Louisville Assembly Plant. Meanwhile, another 6,000 local manufacturing jobs are provided by GE Appliances in Louisville, which has beenpurchased by Electrolux.

Employers

LOUISVILLE


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Major Employers #EmployeesUnited Parcel Services 22,080Humana Inc. 12,500Norton Healthcare Inc. 11,389KentuckyOne Health Inc. 6,000Ford Motor Co. 12,990GE Appliances 6,000The Kroger Co. 4,626Baptist Healthcare System Inc. 4,995Catholic Archdiocese of Louisville 2,263LG&E and KU Energy LLC 2,211

* ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; BLS; Moody’sAnalytics; Experian

Sources: Greater Louisville Chamber of Commerce, 2016

MARKET OVERVIEW

The Louisville metropolitan area provides a total of 650,000 jobs and over the last five years, nonfarmemployment grew at an annual pace of 2.2 percent. Through 2020, annual employment gains are expected toslow slightly to 1.5 percent.

Trade, transportation and utilities is the largest major employment sector in Louisville, accounting for 21percent of all jobs, or nearly 139,000 positions. This segment of employment is expected to grow 1.1 percentannually through 2020. Education and health services comprises the second-biggest share of local jobs with89,200 positions, or 14 percent of total metro employment. Jobs in this field are forecast to increase 2.6percent annually over the next five years. The professional and business services, and the government sectors,each contribute another 13 percent of employment. Louisville is also a major manufacturer of both automotivecomponents and electrical appliances. Jobs in manufacturing represent 12 percent of regional payrolls.

Through 2020, jobs in construction are projected to post the most robust growth of all major employmentsectors, at an average of 4.1 percent expansion each year. All employment sectors are forecast to grow overthe next five years and nine of 11 of them will grow in excess of 1.0 percent annually during this time.

Labor

* ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS, Moody’sAnalytics

LOUISVILLE


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MARKET OVERVIEW

PROPERTY DESCRIPTIONMARKET OVERVIEW

LOUISVILLE

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MARKET OVERVIEW

The Louisville metro has a population of nearly 1.3 million residents, a figure that grew roughly 14 percent from 2000 to 2015. Over the next five years, the metropopulation is expected to expand at a pace of 4.0 percent, adding a total of nearly 50,900 people.

The population in Louisville is slightly older than the national level. The metro’s median age, at 38.7 years, is above the U.S. median of 37.5 years. This older and moresettled workforce has helped boost Louisville’s homeownership rate above the national average. In the metro, roughly 68 percent of residents own their own homes,compared with just 64 percent nationally.

The Louisville median household income stands at $52,400 annually, slightly below the U.S. median of $56,100 per year. That said, the metro median income is rising. By2019, the Louisville median income level is forecast to be nearly $60,000 per year.

Although Louisville’s education attainment levels fall below the national average, these figures are trending higher. Currently, 26.4 percent of residents 25 or older have alsoearned at least a bachelor’s degree, and 10 percent have earned a graduate or professional degree. The continued attraction of young professionals to Louisville’s growingmedical community will help boost these numbers in the coming years.

Demographics

LOUISVILLE

* ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; AGS; Experian;Moody’s Analytics; U.S. Census Bureau


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MARKET OVERVIEW

The Louisville metro offers residents a wide array of entertainment and cultural amenities. The most famous is the Kentucky Derby, which annually attracts horse-racingenthusiasts and visitors from all over the world. The Derby itself plays a large part in Louisville’s culture, and both Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby Museum areopen to the public year-round.

Other popular museums in the metro include the Louisville Slugger Museum and Factory and the Frazier History Museum. Visual arts can be found at the Speed ArtMuseum, which houses works by some of the world’s most famous painters. Louisville is also home to a number of renowned estates and historical houses. LouisvillePalace, Conrad’s Castle, Locust Grove and the Belle of Louisville steamboat are all popular attractions. The metro also provides a multitude of performing arts options. TheLouisville Ballet, Louisville Orchestra, Bourbon Baroque, the Kentucky Opera and other organizations stage events across the city, from the Actors Theatre of Louisville tothe Kentucky Center and Brown Theatre. The metro also has a vast independent music scene. The Louisville Zoo and Renaissance Fun Park are both popular attractions forchildren. Additionally, nature lovers can spelunk in the region’s widely popular Louisville Mega Cavern, and hike or bike the many miles of trails.

Louisville prides itself as one of the best college sports towns in the world. The NCAA’s University of Louisville Cardinals are a major source of entertainment for residents,and the metro’s other sports options include teams in minor league baseball to indoor soccer.

* ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; NationalAssociation of Realtors; Moody’s Analytics; U.S. Census Bureau

Quality of Life

LOUISVILLE


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MARKET OVERVIEW

PROPERTY DESCRIPTIONMARKET OVERVIEW

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MARKET OVERVIEW


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LOUISVILLE METRO AREA

Large Supply Influx in LouisvillePressuring Vacancy Rate, Trimming Rent Growth

Demand growth will ease as pipeline empties. A year of transition is in store in the Louisville marketduring 2017. Developers will step up efforts and raise completions to a cycle high this year, coinciding witha projected slowdown in hiring. A substantial rise in the vacancy rate is likely metrowide, one year after a16-year low was recorded, and rent growth will moderate from the nearly 6 percent pace recorded during2016. Projects comprising more than 1,500 units are on tap in Central Louisville and the northeasternsection of the city. The vacancy rate in these areas ended last year in the low-4 percent range but appearslikely to rise notably during 2017, potentially prompting the more frequent use of concessions. The comingyear will test the limits of demand for upper-tier rental housing in the urban core.

Local investors shifting focus, expanding searches to other neighborhoods. Although the Louisvillemarket may have peaked last year, the still-strong performance outlook and attractive yields shouldmaintain buyer interest. Local investors who are intimately familiar with the nuances of the market will adjustsearch criteria, with some favoring the suburbs over downtown Louisville and popular East Endneighborhoods. Areas with minimal near-term deliveries and more seasoned rental stock could presentopportunities for investors in Class B/C complexes, where strong workforce housing demand is maintainingvacancy of less than 4 percent. These assets will trade at cap rates from the mid-6 percent to the 8 percentrange, depending on location and access to transportation. Out-of-state investors are also active in themetro, drawn by an average cap rate of 7 percent. Investors seeking to trade out of more costly markets tocapture potentially higher yields and add geographic diversification to their portfolios will continue to scourthe metro. Assets in the East End or adjacent to major employers including hospitals and universities willelicit interest.

*Estimate ** ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; BLS; CoStar Group, Inc.

MARKET OVERVIEW


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LOUISVILLE METRO AREA

2017 Market Forecast

A large increase in vacancy prompted the decrease in Louisville’s rankingthis year.

Employers will add 9,000 workers during 2017. Expansions in healthcareand additions to retail staffing underpinned a gain of 13,000 jobs last year.

The pipeline contains 2,500 apartments scheduled for delivery throughout2017, up from the 1,200 rentals delivered in 2016.

Higher completions propel a jump in the vacancy rate to 4.9 percent in2017. A decrease of 90 basis points to a historical low of 3.5 percentoccurred last year.

This year’s projected gain raises the average effective rent to $858 permonth but trails the increase posted last year of 5.9 percent.

Several projects will open during 2017, creating an opportunity for out-of-area investors seeking to geographically diversify portfolios.

* Estimate ** ForecastSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc.;Real Capital Analytics

NMI Rank45, down 7 places

Employmentup 1.3%

Construction2,500 units

Vacancyup 140 bps

Rentup 4.0%

Investment

PROPERTY NAME

MARKETING TEAM


DEMOGRAPHICS

Source: © 2016 Experian

Created on January 2017

POPULATION 1 Miles 3 Miles 5 Miles� 2020 Projection

Total Population 9,607 70,623 221,791� 2015 Estimate

Total Population 9,648 70,060 221,394� 2010 Census

Total Population 9,369 67,996 215,387� 2000 Census

Total Population 9,598 66,414 218,663� Daytime Population

2015 Estimate 15,373 158,176 339,324HOUSEHOLDS 1 Miles 3 Miles 5 Miles� 2020 Projection

Total Households 4,243 32,003 98,340� 2015 Estimate

Total Households 4,236 31,466 97,463Average (Mean) Household Size 2.12 2.07 2.15

� 2010 CensusTotal Households 4,101 30,563 94,600

� 2000 CensusTotal Households 4,291 29,851 95,181

Growth 2015-2020 0.17% 1.71% 0.90%HOUSING UNITS 1 Miles 3 Miles 5 Miles� Occupied Units

2020 Projection 4,243 32,003 98,3402015 Estimate 4,584 34,224 108,297Owner Occupied 2,150 15,107 50,014Renter Occupied 2,087 16,358 47,449Vacant 348 2,758 10,834

� Persons In Units2015 Estimate Total Occupied Units 4,236 31,466 97,4631 Person Units 40.82% 42.26% 39.62%2 Person Units 30.93% 31.04% 31.57%3 Person Units 13.95% 13.04% 13.42%4 Person Units 8.43% 8.24% 9.07%5 Person Units 3.78% 3.44% 3.88%6+ Person Units 2.12% 1.98% 2.45%

HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME 1 Miles 3 Miles 5 Miles� 2015 Estimate

$200,000 or More 0.97% 1.85% 3.15%$150,000 - $199,000 0.63% 1.52% 2.25%$100,000 - $149,000 4.74% 7.39% 8.67%$75,000 - $99,999 8.37% 9.81% 9.50%$50,000 - $74,999 20.64% 18.08% 16.72%$35,000 - $49,999 17.43% 14.95% 13.63%$25,000 - $34,999 11.95% 11.04% 11.07%$15,000 - $24,999 14.35% 14.07% 13.43%Under $15,000 20.90% 21.26% 21.57%

Average Household Income $46,059 $52,762 $59,383Median Household Income $37,129 $38,353 $38,937Per Capita Income $20,931 $24,490 $26,686POPULATION PROFILE 1 Miles 3 Miles 5 Miles� Population By Age

2015 Estimate Total Population 9,648 70,060 221,394Under 20 21.63% 21.67% 23.48%20 to 34 Years 21.75% 25.55% 24.50%35 to 39 Years 6.91% 6.72% 6.35%40 to 49 Years 13.45% 12.76% 12.27%50 to 64 Years 22.56% 20.62% 20.27%Age 65+ 13.70% 12.70% 13.15%Median Age 39.78 36.96 36.51

� Population 25+ by Education Level2015 Estimate Population Age 25+ 6,969 49,722 151,558Elementary (0-8) 4.00% 3.68% 3.16%Some High School (9-11) 11.13% 10.68% 10.51%High School Graduate (12) 36.43% 29.85% 26.49%Some College (13-15) 26.65% 23.07% 22.86%Associate Degree Only 6.62% 6.72% 6.32%Bachelors Degree Only 10.00% 15.99% 17.66%Graduate Degree 4.14% 9.25% 12.14%

� Population by Gender2015 Estimate Total Population 9,648 70,060 221,394Male Population 50.87% 50.21% 48.96%Female Population 49.13% 49.79% 51.04%

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IncomeIn 2016, the median household income for your selected geography is$37,129, compare this to the US average which is currently $54,148.The median household income for your area has changed by 21.55%since 2000. It is estimated that the median household income in yourarea will be $42,496 five years from now, which represents a changeof 14.46% from the current year.

The current year per capita income in your area is $20,931, comparethis to the US average, which is $29,638. The current year averagehousehold income in your area is $46,059, compare this to the USaverage which is $77,468.

PopulationIn 2016, the population in your selected geography is 9,648. Thepopulation has changed by 0.52% since 2000. It is estimated that thepopulation in your area will be 9,607.00 five years from now, whichrepresents a change of -0.42% from the current year. The currentpopulation is 50.87% male and 49.13% female. The median age ofthe population in your area is 39.78, compare this to the US averagewhich is 37.55. The population density in your area is 3,067.70 peopleper square mile.

HouseholdsThere are currently 4,236 households in your selected geography. Thenumber of households has changed by -1.28% since 2000. It isestimated that the number of households in your area will be 4,243five years from now, which represents a change of 0.17% from thecurrent year. The average household size in your area is 2.12 persons.

EmploymentIn 2016, there are 6,640 employees in your selected area, this is alsoknown as the daytime population. The 2000 Census revealed that50.51% of employees are employed in white-collar occupations inthis geography, and 50.64% are employed in blue-collar occupations.In 2016, unemployment in this area is 8.41%. In 2000, the averagetime traveled to work was 20.00 minutes.

Race and EthnicityThe current year racial makeup of your selected area is as follows:76.68% White, 16.32% Black, 0.13% Native American and 0.91%Asian/Pacific Islander. Compare these to US averages which are:70.98% White, 12.77% Black, 0.19% Native American and 5.25%Asian/Pacific Islander. People of Hispanic origin are countedindependently of race.

People of Hispanic origin make up 4.10% of the current yearpopulation in your selected area. Compare this to the US average of17.53%.

PROPERTY NAME

MARKETING TEAM


HousingThe median housing value in your area was $95,825 in 2016, comparethis to the US average of $185,104. In 2000, there were 2,317 owneroccupied housing units in your area and there were 1,974 renteroccupied housing units in your area. The median rent at the time was$394.

Source: © 2016 Experian

DEMOGRAPHICS

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Executive HouseJeffersonville, IN Submarket in Louisville, KY MSA

Disclosure – Aaron Johnson is also one of the owners of Executive House

Offices Nationwidewww.marcusmillichap.com

Aaron JohnsonVice President InvestmentsLouisville, KYDirect (502) 329-5920Mobile (502) [email protected]

Documents

Market Positioning and Pricing Analysis - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/0e6df6b9501/87ba1a0b-337f-4ac4... · 2017-03-09 · Construction Details – 2015-2016 Rehab The