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8/3/2019 Market Mirrors Trend Changes
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COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
ANANTH J ACHARYA
www.appliedelliottwave.com
TREND CHANGES & CONTINUATIONTREND CHANGES & CONTINUATIONIN FINANCIAL MARKETSIN FINANCIAL MARKETS
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AN ELLIOTT WAVE APPROACH
An original solution to the oldest problem of the world Financial markets.
To my knowledge no person has so far explained this trend changing behavior of the
Financial Markets and I am presuming that this is the first time this is being presented to the
world.
SYNOPSIS
This study is aimed at finding patterns which indicate trend change from Up to Down and vice
versa in the World financial markets. The premise for the study has been my then 13 year old
daughter's observation (in December 2005) of how the markets appear to change the trend.
Her observation, while being very elementary and simplistic, appears to answer a question
puzzling the world for hundreds of years.
Over 500 charts of Stocks, Indices, Commodities and Forex, were analyzed in different time
frames. 1 Minute, 15 Minute, 1 Hour, Daily and weekly charts have been taken for the study
and the rule appears to hold true on all time-frames and across the different markets
examined. The only criterion has been that the markets be highly liquid, traded with very high
volumes and reflect mass participation.
It appears that the rule is satisfied each and every time, and across all the charts
analyzed, and across all time frames. There has never been once that the rule was
found to be incorrect.
RULES AND BASICS
The Wave Principle is Ralph Nelson Elliott's Discovery. Elliott discovered thirteen patterns of
directional movements or wave that occur in the markets and are repetitive in form. These
waves link together in specific ways to form larger structures of the same pattern, and they
link together again to form larger structures of the same pattens and so on.....
Elliott identified two modes of wave or pattern development. Motive and Corrective. Motive
waves have a five wave structure and corrective waves have a three wave structure or
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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variations thereof.
THE ESSENTIAL DESIGN
The image above illustrates the essential design (Robert Prechter). Observe waves (1), (3),
(5), (A), and (C) are composed offive waves ormotive waves and waves (2), (4) and (B) are
three wave structures orcorrective waves.
While traditionally it is accepted that motive waves do not always point upwards and
corrective waves do not always point downwards, a very simple observation was missed for
decades.
My daughters observation was very simple and profound. She observed that after each five
wave motive pattern, there appeared a three wave pattern, which is followed by another five
wave pattern and so on........ till such a time that a five wave pattern is followed by another
five wave pattern, which is the only pattern when the market changes trend from up to down
and vice versa. In other words the market only changes trend when a 5 wave structure
is followed by another five wave structure.
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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So by inference and logical conclusion, a three wave structure is a continuation pattern
and a five wave structure is a trend changing pattern. While this was the most elementary
observation, the truth of this observation gets highlighted and a verification that this indeed is
the case is startling. However before proper application of the rule an understanding of the
motive and corrective waves is paramount.
RN Elliott enumerated thirteen patterns, but for brevity and application we need to concern
ourselves with only eight patterns; Three patterns of motive Waves, and five patterns of
corrective waves as enumerated below.
MOTIVE WAVES
The three motive waves are 1. Leading Diagonal (LD) 2. Impulse (IM) and 3. Ending Diagonal
(LD)
1. LEADING DIAGONAL (LD): The Leading diagonal is composed of five waves which are in
itself internally composed of 5, 3, 5, 3, 5 waves respectively. The figure below illustrates the
Leading Diagonal
Note how each of the motive waves within the Leading Diagonal are also five wave structures
and the corrective waves to the motive waves are three wave structures. The Leading
Diagonal whenever it appears begins a larger wave within which it is nested. This rule is of
particular interest to us, as the motive wave immediately after a trend change is either a
Leading Diagonal or a Impulse (IM) explained next.
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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2. IMPULSE (IM): The most common motive wave is an Impulse. In an impulse, wave 4 does
not enter into the territory of wave 1 and wave 3 is never the shortest of 1, 2, and 3. Note that
the motive waves within the impulse are also five wave structures and the corrective waves
are made up of three waves. Several other guidelines are also used based on the principlesof Elliott Wave Theory.
The above figure illustrates the a standard Impulse.
3. ENDING DIAGONAL (ED): The Ending Diagonal is also a motive wave, that occurs in the
fifth wave position when the earlier impuse wave has is swift and furious and longer than
expected. The figure below illustrates Ending Diagonal in the fifth wave position of a motive
wave.
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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Ending Diagonals are of particular interest to the study. As observed from The Essential
Design and The Complete Cycle, a motive wave lies on either side of the apex or the nadir at
each of the market turns. The ending motive wave can be either an Ending Diagonal or an
Impulse.
The motive wave preceding the apex or the Nadir can be either an Ending Diagonal or
an Impulse and is followed either by an Impulse of a leading Diagonal.
This throws up several successful trading and profit opportunities in the market as thrown up
by this study.
CORRECTIVE WAVES
The five corrective waves we need to concern ourselves with are 1. ZigZags (ZZ) 2.Double
ZigZags and Triple ZigZags (DZ & TZ) 3. Flats (FL) 4. Double and Triple Sideways (D3) and
5. Contracting Triangles (CT)
1. ZIGZAG (ZZ): A ZigZag is a three wave pattern, that is made up of a motive wave followed
by a corrective wave which is once again followed by another motive wave.
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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The Zig Zag is one of the most common Elliott wave pattern seen in the market. At the very
basic level all three wave corrective patterns are made of ZigZags.
2. DOUBLE ZIGZAGS (DZ): Zigzags sometimes occur twice, or three times in succession,
and never more. In such cases each ZigZags is separated by a 'three wave corrective.
producing what is called a Double ZigZag or Triple ZigZag (TZ) The following figure illustrates
the Double ZigZag. Addition of another corrective and a ZigZag would make it a Triple ZigZag.
3. FLATS (FL) A Flat is another three wave correction and is the most common pattern after
the ZigZag. The first two waves of the Flat correction are correctives themselves and the third
wave is a motive wave. Thus the three waves of a Flat are 3-3-5.
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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The figure above illustrates a common Flat. Variations do exist but it is not relevant to this
study.
4. DOUBLE SIDEWAYS (D3): Similar to Flats. The Double Sideways or (sometimes Triple
Sideways) is two (or sometimes three) corrective patterns strung together by with a joining
three wave pattern.
These are labeled W-X-Y(-XX-Z). All the patterns are corrective in nature. The following
pattern illustrates the Double Sideways pattern. Triple Sideways patterns are quite rare.
5. CONTRACTING TRIANGLE (CT): Triangles unfold in a sideways pattern as five waves and
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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subdivide into 3-3-3-3-3. A temporary balance of forces causing a sideways movement thats
associated with decreasing volume and volatility.
A very simple observation here pertinent to our study is the simple differentiation between
Motive and corrective waves.
Motive waves move the farthest possible distance in the shortest possible time and within
them do not have many overlaps between waves 4 and 1. Corrective waves however labour
slowly and appear to cover the same price territory again and again producing numerous overlaps in the same price territory. Motive waves are mostly linear movements and correctives
are mostly a 'mess' and often difficult to count. A thumb rule is If you cannot count it, it is a
correction.
WAVE DEGREE
All waves may be categorized by relative size or degree. Every Elliott pattern is, in itself the
building block of a larger Elliott pattern, which again is a bding block of yet another larger
Elliott pattern and so on. Each subsequent larger Elliott pattern is called of one higher degree.
This five waves of one degree next within a motive pattern of one larger degree and these five
together form one wave of the larger degree and so on.
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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The following picture ' The Complete Market Cycle' (Robert Prechter) illustrates this behavior
clearly and this afford us the best tool to identify market turns.
THE COMPLETE MARKET CYCLE
The figure above illustrates a complete market cycle and which also lays bare why simple
concept, which was instantly apparent to a 13 yr old child, eluded most of the Elliott wave
scholars for a long time.
Note how waves (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(A)(B)(C) all end in motive waves and also begin with motive
waves. Also note how waves 1(circle) and 2(circle) also end in a motive and start in a motive.
While it appears that motive waves appear everywhere, every time a motive wave is followed
by a motive wave of the same degree, markets change trend, but only for that degree.
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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Let us now move ahead to the real market charts and real market observation of this trend
changing and trend continuing pattern...........
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. The Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter (www.elliottwave.com)
2. The Major works of R.N. Elliott by Robert Prechter. (www.elliottwave.com)
3. Practical Elliott Wave trading strategies by Robert Miner (www.dynamictraders.com)
4. Applying Elliott Wave Profitably by Stephen Poser (www.poserglobal.com)
COPYRIGHT 2010 ANANTH J ACHAYA www.appliedelliottwave.com
http://www.elliottwave.com/http://www.elliottwave.com/http://www.dynamictraders.com/http://www.poserglobal.com/http://www.elliottwave.com/http://www.dynamictraders.com/http://www.poserglobal.com/http://www.elliottwave.com/