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MARKET INSIGHTS:NEW DEVELOPMENTS,WHAT TO CONSIDER, ANDTOP QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Our Speakers
HostJim ArmstrongMarketing Director, Fidelity InvestmentsJim Armstrong is a marketing director in Fidelity’s Personal Investing division. In this position, he creates educational content for workplace participants to help with retirement planning and other financial wellness topics. Formerly, Jim distinguished himself as an Emmy-winning journalist, spending 17 years as a television reporter for network affiliates around the country.
Special guest panelistsRyan Viktorin, CFP®Vice President, Financial ConsultantRyan Viktorin has worked as a financial advisor for 12 years and joined Fidelity in 2013. She works with high-net-worth families in the areas of retirement planning, legacy planning, tax minimization, and investment strategy. Ryan tries to maintain an in-depth understanding of the financial markets while working to effectively simplify and communicate complex financial concepts. She truly enjoys helping her clients understand their financial picture so that they can securely and efficiently reach their goals.
Denise ChisholmSector Strategist, Fidelity InvestmentsDenise Chisholm is a sector strategist in the Equity and High Income division at Fidelity Investments. In this role, Denise is responsible for the research of portfolio construction strategies combining sector-based mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Prior to assuming her current responsibilities in April 2013, Denise held multiple roles within Fidelity, including research analyst on the megacap research team, research analyst on the international team, and sector specialist.
A Recession, Bear Market, and Response Unlike Any OtherUnemployment Claims Spiked to Historic Levels in MarchInitial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (state programs, weekly avg., in thousands)
Stimulus Measures to Offset the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Have Been UnprecedentedImpact of Global Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus, February & March 2020
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Central Bank Liquidity
Fiscal Stimulus Total
$Billions
% of GDP
$Billions
% of GDP
$Billions
% of GDP
U.S. $1,500 7.0% $2,756 12.9% $4,256 19.8%
Eurozone $1,100 8.3% $480 3.6% $1,580 11.9%
Japan $126 2.4% $184 3.6% $184 3.6%
UK $387 14.1% $38 1.4% $425 15.5%
China $1,153 8.0% $111 0.8% $1,264 8.9%
Others $406 – $1,416 – $1,948 –
Total $4,672 5.4% $4,984 5.8% $9,655 11.1%
Sources: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, Cornerstone Macro, as of March 31, 2020.
Health Care Stocks Look Healthy
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Health Care Relative Valuation as Measured by FCF Yield
The Health Care Sector Appears Inexpensive Based on Free Cash Flow
High FCF Yield Has Increased the Sector’s Historical Odds of Outperformance
Historical Odds of Outperformance (NTM), 1985–Present
57%
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AllPeriods
FCF Yieldin Top Quintile
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Health care sector analysis is based on the largest 3,000 U.S. stocks by market capitalization. Health care outperformance is measured relative to the Russell 3000 Index. NTM means next 12 months. FCF yield in top quintile represents 20% of the historical periods studied. Sources: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, as of March 31, 2020.
Recent Investor Fear Has Resembled the Global Financial Crisis
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Valuation Spreads Have Jumped in Recent Weeks Amid UncertaintyAverage Valuation Spreads
Investors Have Also Rotated Quickly Into Defensive SectorsCyclical Sector Minus Defensive Sector Cumulative Relative Performance (Average, Equal-Weighted across Sectors)
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Valuation spread measured as an equal-weighted average spread of trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-book (P/B) ratio, forward P/E ratio, and price-to-free-cash-flow (FCF) ratio of the top 3,000 U.S. stocks by market capitalization. Sector analysis based on the top 3,000 stocks by market capitalization relative to the Russell 3000 Index. Cyclical sectors: communication services, consumer discretionary, energy, financials, industrials, materials, real estate, technology. Defensive sectors: consumer staples, health care, utilities. Source: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, as of Mar. 31, 2020.
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Disciplined Investing Can Be Challenging
Source: Fidelity Investments, December 29, 2017.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The S&P 500® is a market capitalization–weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. S&P and S&P 500 are registered service marks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services, LLC.
How Market Volatility Can Trigger Emotional Reactions
Source: Fidelity.com, April 19, 2020. The security mentioned herein is not necessarily a holding invested in by Fidelity. References to specific securities should not be construed as recommendations or investment advice. The statements and opinions are those of the speaker, do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity as a whole, and are subject to change at any time, based on market or other conditions. This screenshot is provided for illustrative purposes only.
Cyclical Sectors Often Led Following Recession Troughs
Overall, Cyclical Sectors Have Outpaced the Market in the Six Months after Recessionary LowsHistorical Odds of Sector Outperformance Following a Market Trough, 1970–2019
Financials, Real Estate, and Consumer Discretionary Have Performed Best Following Market BottomsAverage Relative Returns Following a Market Trough,1970–2019
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Sector analysis is based on the largest 3,000 U.S. stocks by market capitalization relative to the Russell 3000 Index. Datainclude the seven recessionary market trough from 1970 through 2019. Recessions as defined by NBER, representing 10% of the periods studied. Sources: NBER, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, as of March 31, 2020.
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71% 71%
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-6.4%
-2.4%
9.3%
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-3.8%
2.6%3.7%
6.5%
-5.6%-8%
-6%
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Target Asset Mixes
The purpose of the target asset mixes is to show how target asset mixes may be created with different risk and return characteristics to help meet an investor’s goal. You should choose your own investments based on your particular objectives and situation. Remember, you may change how your account is invested. Be sure to review your decisions periodically to make sure they are still consistent with your goals. You should also consider any investments you may have outside the plan when making your investment choices.Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
MARKET INSIGHTS:NEW DEVELOPMENTS,WHAT TO CONSIDER, ANDTOP QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Information provided in this document is for informational and educational purposes only.
Information presented herein is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may change based on market and other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its affiliates. Fidelity does not assume any duty to update any of the information.
To the extent any investment information in this material is deemed to be a recommendation, it is not meant to be impartial investment advice or advice in a fiduciary capacity and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for you or your clients’ investment decisions. Fidelity and its representatives may have a conflict of interest in the products or services mentioned in this material because they have a financial interest in them and receive compensation, directly or indirectly, in connection with the management, distribution, or servicing of these products or services, including Fidelity funds, certain third-party funds and products, and certain investment services.
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Diversification does not ensure or guarantee against loss.
In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Lower-quality fixed income securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer.
Stock markets are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, economic, or other developments. These risks may be magnified in foreign markets.
Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies.
The health care industries are subject to government regulation and reimbursement rates, as well as government approval of products and services, which could have a significant effect on price and availability, and can be significantly affected by rapid obsolescence and patent expirations.
Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Nothing in this content should be considered to be legal or tax advice, and you are encouraged to consult your own lawyer, accountant, or other advisor before making any financial decision.
The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization–weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent U.S. equity performance.
Russell 3000 Index is a market capitalization–weighted index designed to measure the performance of the 3,000 largest companies in the US equity market.
The CFP® certification is offered by the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. (“CFP Board”). To obtain the CFP® certification, candidates must pass the comprehensive CFP® Certification examination, pass the CFP® Board’s fitness standards for candidates and registrants, agree to abide by the CFP Board’s Code of Ethics and Professional Responsibility, and have at least three years of qualifying work experience, among other requirements. The CFP Board owns the certification mark CFP® in the United States.
Before investing in any mutual fund or exchange-traded fund, you should consider its investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus, an offering circular, or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.
Personal and workplace investment products are provided by Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, member NYSE, SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917.
© 2020 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.
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MARKET INSIGHTS:NEW DEVELOPMENTS,WHAT TO CONSIDER, ANDTOP QUESTIONS ANSWERED