Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Market Developments3Q 2016
Data source: IHS Fairplay
(Production in CGT)
Europe
Japan
South Korea
China
RoW
1990 2000 2010 2015 2018
Evolution of Shipbuilding Capacity
Data source: Clarkson, European Commission
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
New orders
Deliveries
Quelle: IHS Fairplay 08/2016
2016: Projection based
on 1st HY
12,4% 3,4%
Global Shipbuilding Development in 1.000 GT
GDP / trade growth elasticity changing
6
5.China Shipbuilding Employment
553
374
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.6
1,000 persons
With the adjustment of the shipbuilding market, the employment of shipbuilding
industry has been declining since 2011.
Till the end of Jun. 2016, the employment of China shipbuilding industry was about
374 thousands, fell by 32% compared with the 2011 peak of 553 thousands.
Data Source: CANSI
Shipbuilding Employment & Wage
- The number of employees and wage level of the industry in Korea had been in upward trend except the year 2009, but this trend is likely to decline in the years to come due to ongoing industry restructuring.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016.1H
Thousands
Subcontractors Technical & Skilled Workers
Engineers Management &
Administration
(Thousand
Workers)
Average Monthly Wages in Manufacturing
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.
2Q
CAGR : 4.4%
(Thousand
KRW)
Shipbuilding Employment Trend
* Note : As of end of each year (KOSHIPA members only) * Source : Korean Ministry of Employment & Labor
-3-
8
Workforce in SAJ
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Staff Factory Worker Subcontract Worker % of Subcontract Worker (right axis)
as of April
2016
Staff 9.8
Factory Worker 13.5
Subcontract Worker 31.0
Total 54.3
(1,000 persons)
Source: SAJ
Shipyard Employment & Turnover in Germany
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Um
sätz
e in
Mrd
. €
Bes
chäf
tigt
e in
10
00
Employment
Turnover (in current prices)
ab 2007 Beschränkung auf Betriebe ab 50 Beschäftigte (bisher 20 Beschäftigte)
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Darstellung: VSM
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Value of New Contracts (in US bn $)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2013 2014 2015 3Q 2016
KOREA
CHINA
EUROPE
JAPAN
RoW
Source: Clarkson
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
Data source: IHS Fairplay
• Total global investment from Jan to Oct = 26 bn $ • 12.9 bn invested on new Cruise ships
Data source: Clarksons
Relative Development of Marketsegments
19.01.2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014 2015 2016 Hj.1
Ind
ex 2
01
3=1
00
Tanker
Bulker
Container/Dry Cargo
Passengerships
NCCV
Datasource: IHS FairplayIndex based on new ordersin CGT
= Non Cargo Carrying Vessels
Data source: Clarksons
Data source: Clarksons
Data Source: X-rates
Data source: Meps.co.uk
Thank You!
More info: www.seaurope.eu
TRADE
TTIP: Negotiations of the Jones Act
• 15th Round of EU-US Negotiation
• To be noted.
• Consolidated version of market assessment of different business segments in the context of TTIP negotiations
• Comments
• ECORYS’ Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment (TSIA) final Interim Technical Report on TTIP
• Comments
• US elections: quid nunc?
International WG on Export Credit
• Next steps?
EU-South Korea • South-Korean state subsidies
• Suggestions for Board discussion on 17.11.2016
• OECD WP6 and South-Korea• SEA Europe position at WP6 on 2 December 2016• Input to 6 questions raised by DG Trade • Answer to question from South Korea• Actions and/or positions expected from the European
Commission towards South-Korea during the WP 6 meeting on 2 December 2016.
• IMF Working Paper • Discuss findings
• Draft inception report of the evaluation of the EU South Korea FTA implementation• SEA Europe position
EU- China • Shipbuilding Dialogue
• Suggestions for discussion items
• EU-China Investment Agreement negotiations • Next steps
• Market economy status of China• Implications • Next steps• Meeting in EP
• Outcome of the 6th EU China High-level Economic and Trade Dialogue• To be noted
ANTI-DUMPING DUTIES ON IMPORTS OF CERTAIN CHINESE STEEL PRODUCTS
• Commission anti-dumping duties
• Impact for our industry
• Commission Communication towards a robust trade policy for the EU in the interest of jobs and growth
• Discuss content + possible SEA position
• Commission proposal
• New proposal issued on 9.11.2016
COMMISSION PROPOSAL – DUAL USE
• Comments on content of the proposal
• Next steps
AOB
• CETA
• SEA Europe meeting with trade experts
• TiSA
• SEA Europe strategy paper on trade issues
• Other topics of interest?
MEETINGS IN 2017
THE END