Market Commentary 4Mar12

8/2/2019 Market Commentary 4Mar12

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Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

It still looks like the wave down from 81.78 has further to develop -- it does notlook like a completed wave form at the 78.10 low. So, were likely seeing anexpanded flat -b- wave. It would not be a surprise to see the market rally to themid 80s before taking a larger leg down. 80.53 would be the 61.8% retrace of theproposed -a- wave and 138.2% of (a) = (c), a nice target for an expanded flatcorrection.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

a

b

c81.78

- a -

- b -(c)

d

(a)

78.10

(b)


2/6

Gold ~ Weekly Continuation

Whenever a market meanders through a well-defined trendline as if it didnt evenexist, its typically a sign of a triangle development. Thats what Gold did in thecircled area. So, were going to stick with this idea--if its a triangle, it will be either aneutral triangle that ends near the a-wave bottom or it will be an expanding trianglewhere the d-wave high will exceed the b-wave peak and the e-wave will break belowthe c-wave low. An expanding triangle would be quite the whipsaw.


a

b

c

d

e

COPIED from 2/26/12


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4/6

Gold ~ Daily Continuation

The tighter stop at $1,761 served the longs well in terms of loss avoidance. That level now becomes primary resistance asgold dropped like a stone last week. It did manage to hold the 38.2% of the entire advance but it seems like the yellow metalis just in the beginning stage of a multi-week correction that should take it down to $1,626 or lower.


a

b

c

d

e

1,761 = resistance


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S&P 500 ~ Current Rally with Weekly Support

As the Talking Heads sang Same as it ever was... The market continued its grind higher. Oneinteresting thing to observe is that the S&P 500 is struggling a bit to get back to the upper endof the trend channel--this is usually a signal of a market thats losing its energy. Bulls/Longsshould raise stops yet again because when this channel breaks, it should be fairly violent,a la the Gold market his week.

Consider using 1352 and 1337 for first and secondlevels of support. 1337 would be a 23.6% retrace ofthe entire last move--a level that also aligns with priorshort term support.

This would be support area on a breakdown.


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DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may ormay not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING ATTRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

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Market Commentary 4Mar12