Market Commentary 29Apr12

8/2/2019 Market Commentary 29Apr12

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Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Primary Support

Its still possible that this market makes another nominal high, but the

recent decline from 1422 looks severe enough to make that idea a long

shot. 1338 looks like an extremely important technical level for the bulls

to maintain. A break below 1338 would look very ominous. As it stands,there is a strong probability that weve seen the highs for 2012.

1202

a

b

c

g?

e

d

f

i?

h?

( B )z

REPRINTED from 4/22/2012


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S&P 500 ~ Daily with Primary Support

Shocker! The S&P 500 double bottomed comfortably above key support and putin a nice rally last week.

The longer term wave counts and structure continue to suggest were at or very

close to the end of this large (B) wave. But, it makes much more sense to enterthe short side of this market only after getting a confirmation of a break down.From just the rally off the 1202 low, the market has failed to break even a previouslow. Why bother shorting it until it does? That said the 1440 level, as highlightedon previous reports, looks like strong resistance. So, I would be initiating shorts infront of that level (1425-1440) or I would short on a break down below 1338.Everything in between looks like a no mans land.

1202

a

b

c

g?

e

d

f

i?

h?

( B )z


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S&P 500 ~ 20 Min. Chart

I dont like to look a charts on this small of time scale normally. But, here Im trying to examine the

nature of the decline from top. Unfortunately, its ambiguous. It looks more like a seven-leggedcorrective move lower, but I can see how someone might want to label it an impulse down. The

bounce back from the lows looks extremely corrective in nature--bulls should be worried about thelook of that sideways/choppy move. This whole pattern strongly suggests another leg down coming

on the S&P 500.

[1][a]

[2][b]

[3][c]

[4][d]

[.1]

[.2]

[.3][e]

[.4][f]

[.5] of [5][g]

[e]

[b]

[a]

[d]

[c]

REPRINTED from 4/22/2012 - WRONG!We did a get leg down but nothing assignificant as I thought it would be.


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S&P 500 ~ 60 Min. Chart

Im not sure what the proper degree labeling should be here and the count from the 1357 low can go either way. This is just astab at what the very short term structure might be. On thing is for sure, the move down from 1422 was NOT a classic impulse,to the chagrin of classic Ellioticians. Theres no sign of peaking action to this market, so a full probing of theshort term resistance area 1408-1414 seems in the offing to begin the week.

[a]

[b]

[c]

[d]

[e]

[f]

[g]

[e]

[b]

[a]

[d]

[c]

If this is an expanding triangle, the e-wavemust exceed the top of the a-c trendline.

Daredevile longs/bulls should probably run astop loss at 1392 for any short term long

positions.


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U.S. Dollar Index - Monthly

Im overdue for a Dollar Index Update. The next update will begin with an examination of the much larger picture. I cannot give aprecise count to this Monthly chart (yet), but a few things stand out to me from a pattern recognition basis.

1) The last three CYCLE legs were corrections, therefore were dealing with a big Triangle; 2) The two waves down were very sharp and severe and theyve lacked capitulative bottoms;

3) The bottoming action has been more whipsaw/grinding in nature. The bottoming in looks remarkablysimilar to the bottom of the wave. [FRACTALS BABY!]

< A >

< B >

< C >?

< D >?


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DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or

may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-

DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT

TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

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Market Commentary 29Apr12