Market Commentary 10JUN12

7/31/2019 Market Commentary 10JUN12

1/7

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index Daily - Head and Shoulder Bottom?

I began this update with an older idea--that any realized head and shoulder developments would benon-classical and a little messier than we would like to see. In that light, please observe the

potential huge head and shoulder bottom in the U.S. Dollar Index. The target of this pattern, if theneckline breaks and holds, would be 90+. It would be a significant move that would severelydamage the U.S. Stock market. Its a move that would likely coincide with headlines like: Spanish

Sovereign Debt Default or Greece Exits Euro.

LeftShoulder*

RightShoulder

Head

Neckline

* The Left Shoulder of this pattern is whatwould make this H&S a little odd as it was

formed within a larger down leg.

-a-

-b-

-c-

-d-?

-e-?

Weve been thinking

the pattern off the lowswas a triangle. At thispoint it would have tobe an expanding

triangle. Gulp.

REPRINTED from 5/20/2012


2/7


Dollar Index Daily - Head and Shoulder Bottom?

A few weeks ago, the H&S development was highlighted and it continues to play out. Thetarget of this pattern is 90.50, so its an idea that must be respected. The pattern off the lows

continues to look like an expanding triangle, which means were the midst of a powerful e -wave higher. If that is the case, the market should not be able to see any meaningful

pullbacks--both to satisfy the requirements of the H&S idea and to fit the

character of an expanding triangle e-wave.

LeftShoulder*

RightShoulder

Head

Neckline

-a-

-b-

-c-

-d-?

-e-?

90.50


3/7


Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support

The risk/reward opportunity in the DXY strongly favors buying any pullbacks and stayinglong. The whole 81.65 - > 80.49 zone should be considered solid support, with 81.65aligning with the breakout/neckline.

-a-

-b-

-c-

-d-

-e-

Ignoring all the Wave parlance.At a minimum, we have a nice

trend channel in place: higher highs and higher lows. Assume thetrend is bullish until the trendline breaks.


4/7


S&P 500 ~ Daily Line on Close

The orthodox Elliot Wave community is abuzz with the idea that we witnessed an impulsive five wave move down. On the intra-day chart (60 min) its not that convincing because there are no clear impulsive formations on the three legs down. However, whenwe just pull back and look at the daily line on close, theres little to argue about. It does look like a true impulse down. The requiredelements are all present: 1) an extended third wave; 2) equality between the first and fifth waves; 3) alternation between the secondand fourth waves--the second wave was larger and more complex than wave four.

Id give this a 75% chance of being an impulsive waveformation from the top. This market will meetserious resistance into 61.8% retracementregardless.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Daily RSI Divergence was theharbinger of the hop.


5/7


S&P 500 ~ 120 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance

This market, at least in the very short term, has a little something everybody. The bounce from the 1260 area wasimpressive enough that it should set the stage for more sideways/higher price action. Daredevil bulls shouldconsider 1305/1292 as first and second levels of resistance. My bias is to be neutral this market with an eye

toward scale up selling into the 1344 -> 1365 zone.

LeftShoulder?

RightShoulder?

Head?


6/7


Gold Daily Line on Close

We will start paying more attention to gold in the weeks ahead. While gold has suffered a huge correction from the loftyheights, this price pattern should be a little disappointing to gold bears. Its a massive slab of congestion since the peak--not usually a bearish signal. At this point, it looks like a market merely resting before launching higher. We had

previously thought this was a large triangle developing but that case no longer fits. The count below is my best guess at

the pattern--that were 65% done with a triple combination of some kind.I will take a longer look at Gold for next weeks update.

-a-

-b-

-c-

w

x

-a-

-b-

-c-

y

x?

z?


7/7

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or

may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-

DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT

TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Documents

Market Commentary 10JUN12