Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & …ptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/emstockbndcur.pdfSeptember 25, 2017 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies Yardeni

Market Briefing:Emerging Markets

Stocks, Bonds, & CurrenciesYardeni Research, Inc.

September 25, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

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Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

September 25, 2017 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.yardeni.com

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EM MSCI In Dollars & Local Currencies 1Stock Markets: Americas 2-3Stock Markets: Asia 4-7Stock Markets 8-9US$ Forex Rates: Americas 10US$ Forex Rates: Asia 11Fragile Five 12-13Emerging Markets Bond Yields 14-15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

16009/25EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES

Local Currency

US Dollars

Source: MSCI.

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Figure 1.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018500

1000

1500

2000

500

1000

1500

2000

9/25

EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX*(US$)

* Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines,Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.

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Figure 2.

EM MSCI In Dollars & Local Currencies

Page 1 / September 25, 2017 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.yardeni.com


Figure 3.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

9/25

EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI(US$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9/25

ARGENTINA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9/25

BRAZIL MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

1000

2000

3000

9/25

CHILE MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2000

4000

6000

8000

9/25

MEXICO MSCI

200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

2000

9/25

PERU MSCI

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Stock Markets: Americas



Figure 4.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

9/25EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI(local currencies)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

10000

20000

300009/25ARGENTINA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1950000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

9/25

BRAZIL MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

9/25

CHILE MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910000

20000

30000

40000

500009/25MEXICO MSCI


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

1000

2000

3000

4000

9/25

PERU MSCI

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Stock Markets: Americas



Figure 5.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

EM ASIA MSCI(US$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

9/25

CHINA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

9/25

HONG KONG MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

SINGAPORE MSCI


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

200

400

600

9/25SOUTH KOREA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

9/25TAIWAN MSCI

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Stock Markets: Asia



Figure 6.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

400

600

800

1000

9/25

EM ASIA MSCI(local currencies)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

9/25

CHINA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

9/25HONG KONG MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

9/25

SINGAPORE MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

200

400

600

800

9/25SOUTH KOREA MSCI


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

9/25

TAIWAN MSCI

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Stock Markets: Asia



Figure 7.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

9/25

INDONESIA MSCI(US$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

THE PHILIPPINES MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

600

9/25

MALAYSIA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

200

400

600

800

9/25

INDIA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

100

200

300

400

500

9/25

THAILAND MSCI


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

50

100

150

200

250

9/25

PAKISTAN MSCI

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Stock Markets: Asia



Figure 8.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2000

4000

6000

8000

9/25

INDONESIA MSCI(local currencies)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

15009/25THE PHILIPPINES MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

MALAYSIA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

9/25

INDIA MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

100

200

300

400

500

6009/25THAILAND MSCI


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

PAKISTAN MSCI

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Stock Markets: Asia



Figure 9.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

2000

9/25

RUSSIA MSCI(US$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

100

200

300

400

9/25

ISRAEL MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

2000

9/25

POLAND MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

300

500

700

900

9/25

TURKEY MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

9/25

HUNGARY MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

9/25

EGYPT MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

9/25

CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

SOUTH AFRICA MSCI

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Stock Markets



Figure 10.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

2000

9/25

RUSSIA MSCI(local currencies)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

9/25

ISRAEL MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

9/25

POLAND MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

50000

100000

150000

200000

9/25

TURKEY STOCK PRICE INDEX

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

9/25

HUNGARY MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

1000

2000

3000

4000

9/25

EGYPT MSCI

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

15009/25SOUTH AFRICA MSCI

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Stock Markets



Figure 11.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1922

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

9/25

MEXICO(Peso/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194.6

4.1

3.6

3.1

2.6

2.1

1.6

1.1

.6

.1

9/25

BRAZIL(Real/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920

15

10

5

0

-5

9/25

ARGENTINA(Peso/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

9/25

CHILE(Peso/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

9/22VENEZUELA(Bolivar Fuerte/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193600

3200

2800

2400

2000

1600

1200

9/25

COLOMBIA(Peso/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

9/25

PERU(New Sol/$)

200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International.

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US$ Forex Rates: Americas



Figure 12.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198.4

8.0

7.6

7.2

6.8

6.4

6.0

5.6

9/22

CHINA(Yuan/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

9/22

MALAYSIA(Ringgit/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

9/22

SOUTH KOREA(Won/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1916000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

9/25

INDONESIA(Rupiah/$)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975

65

55

45

35

25

9/25

INDIA(Rupee/$, inverted scale)

200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1945

40

35

30

25

9/25

THAILAND(Baht/$)

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US$ Forex Rates: Asia



J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-150

-100

-50

0

50

-150

-100

-50

0

50FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: FRAGILE FIVE(percent change)

Turkey (-98.6)

India (-18.9)

South Africa (-57.2)Indonesia (-38.3)

Brazil (-53.7)

Latest data thru: 09/25/17

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.

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Figure 13.


-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60MSCI PRICE INDEXES: FRAGILE FIVE(US$, percent change)

Turkey (-35.3)

India (28.9)

South Africa (-11.7)Indonesia (-3.8)

Brazil (-23.1)



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Figure 14.

Fragile Five




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60MSCI PRICE INDEXES: FRAGILE FIVE(local currencies, percent change)

Turkey (28.5)

India (53.2)

South Africa (38.8)Indonesia (33.0)

Brazil (18.3)



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Figure 15.

Fragile Five



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

9/25

10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES(percent)

Philippines (4.59)

Hong Kong (1.63)

India (6.62)

Malaysia (3.90)

Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 16.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

2

4

6

8

0

2

4

6

8

9/25


Thailand (2.24)

Singapore (2.12)

South Korea (2.27)

Taiwan (1.02)


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Figure 17.

Emerging Markets Bond Yields



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

9/22


Brazil (4.10)

Chile (4.30)

Colombia (6.49)


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Figure 18.

Emerging Markets Bond Yields



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Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & …ptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/emstockbndcur.pdfSeptember 25, 2017 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies Yardeni