12
March 2017 Activity Snapshot One-Year Change in One-Year Change in Closed Sales Median Sales Price 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Monthly Indicators + 14.7% + 8.3% - 14.7% One-Year Change in Changes in methodology were implemented in October 2012 to provide a more accurate count of inventory and related metrics. Due to MLS purging rules, activity before 2008 cannot be updated and therefore shifts in the trendlines may occur. Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of Original List Price Received We can comfortably consider the first quarter to have been a good start for residential real estate in 2017. There was certainly plenty to worry over when the year began. Aside from new national leadership in Washington, DC, and the policy shifts that can occur during such transitions, there was also the matter of continuous low housing supply, steadily rising mortgage rates and ever- increasing home prices. Nevertheless, sales have held their own in year-over- year comparisons and should improve during the busiest months of the real estate sales cycle. New Listings increased 4.0 percent to 17,333. Pending Sales were up 15.0 percent to 13,330. Inventory levels shrank 14.7 percent to 35,337 units. Prices continued to gain traction. The Median Sales Price increased 8.3 percent to $195,000. Days on Market was down 13.2 percent to 66 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 22.2 percent to 3.5 months. The U.S. economy has improved for several quarters in a row, which has helped wage growth and retail consumption increase in year-over-year comparisons. Couple that with an unemployment rate that has been holding steady or dropping both nationally and in many localities, and consumer confidence is on the rise. As the economy improves, home sales tend to go up. It isn't much more complex than that right now. Rising mortgage rates could slow growth eventually, but rate increases should be thought of as little more than a byproduct of a stronger economy and stronger demand. Homes for Sale A research tool provided by the Georgia Association of REALTORS®. Residential real estate activity comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums combined. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures. Activity Overview New Listings Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory

Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

March 2017 Activity Snapshot

One-Year Change in One-Year Change inClosed Sales Median Sales Price

23456789

101112

Monthly Indicators

+ 14.7% + 8.3% - 14.7%One-Year Change in

Changes in methodology were implemented in October 2012 to provide a more accurate count of inventory and related metrics. Due to MLS purging rules, activity before 2008 cannot be updated and therefore shifts in the trendlines may occur. Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime.

Pending SalesClosed SalesDays on Market Until SaleMedian Sales PriceAverage Sales PricePercent of Original List Price Received

We can comfortably consider the first quarter to have been a good start for residential real estate in 2017. There was certainly plenty to worry over when the year began. Aside from new national leadership in Washington, DC, and the policy shifts that can occur during such transitions, there was also the matter of continuous low housing supply, steadily rising mortgage rates and ever-increasing home prices. Nevertheless, sales have held their own in year-over-year comparisons and should improve during the busiest months of the real estate sales cycle.

New Listings increased 4.0 percent to 17,333. Pending Sales were up 15.0 percent to 13,330. Inventory levels shrank 14.7 percent to 35,337 units.

Prices continued to gain traction. The Median Sales Price increased 8.3 percent to $195,000. Days on Market was down 13.2 percent to 66 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 22.2 percent to 3.5 months.

The U.S. economy has improved for several quarters in a row, which has helped wage growth and retail consumption increase in year-over-year comparisons. Couple that with an unemployment rate that has been holding steady or dropping both nationally and in many localities, and consumer confidence is on the rise. As the economy improves, home sales tend to go up. It isn't much more complex than that right now. Rising mortgage rates could slow growth eventually, but rate increases should be thought of as little more than a byproduct of a stronger economy and stronger demand.

Homes for Sale

A research tool provided by the Georgia Association of REALTORS®. Residential real estate activity comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums combined. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.

Activity OverviewNew Listings

Housing Affordability IndexInventory of Homes for SaleMonths Supply of Inventory

Page 2: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Activity Overview

Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017 Percent Change

Key metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.

New Listings 16,671 17,333 + 4.0% 43,275 + 3.1%

Pending Sales 11,594 13,330 + 15.0% 28,858 32,407 + 12.3%

41,956

+ 8.7%

Days on Market Until Sale 76 66 - 13.2% 80 68 - 15.0%

Closed Sales 9,749 11,179 + 14.7% 23,240 25,256

+ 8.8%

Avg. Sales Price $222,835 $239,107 + 7.3% $216,118 $231,414 + 7.1%

Median Sales Price $180,000 $195,000 + 8.3% $174,500 $189,900

Inventory of Homes for Sale 41,444 35,337 - 14.7% -- --

Months Supply of Inventory 4.5 3.5 - 22.2% --

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 2

+ 1.1%

Affordability Index 220 194 - 11.8% 227 200 - 11.9%

Pct. of Orig. Price Received 95.2% 96.0% + 0.8% 94.5% 95.5%

--

-- --

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

3-2014 3-2015 3-2016 3-2017

Page 3: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

New Listings

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 16,605 15,704 +5.7%

May 2016 16,214 15,469 +4.8%

June 2016 16,968 15,610 +8.7%

July 2016 14,399 15,510 -7.2%

August 2016 14,490 13,668 +6.0%

September 2016 13,436 12,741 +5.5%

October 2016 12,337 12,363 -0.2%

November 2016 10,118 9,728 +4.0%

December 2016 8,101 8,220 -1.4%

January 2017 12,625 12,135 +4.0%

February 2017 13,317 13,150 +1.3%

March 2017 17,333 16,671 +4.0%

12-Month Avg 13,829 13,414 +3.1%

Historical New Listings by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 3

A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.

New Listings

14,98716,671 17,333

2015 2016 2017

March

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

39,51341,956 43,275

2015 2016 2017

Year to Date

+ 3.1%+ 11.2% + 4.0% + 6.2%+ 9.2% + 14.9%

Page 4: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Pending Sales

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 11,881 10,538 +12.7%

May 2016 12,082 10,262 +17.7%

June 2016 11,453 10,263 +11.6%

July 2016 10,275 10,017 +2.6%

August 2016 10,303 9,399 +9.6%

September 2016 9,270 8,389 +10.5%

October 2016 8,809 8,581 +2.7%

November 2016 7,847 7,254 +8.2%

December 2016 6,874 6,587 +4.4%

January 2017 8,845 7,539 +17.3%

February 2017 10,232 9,725 +5.2%

March 2017 13,330 11,594 +15.0%

12-Month Avg 10,100 9,179 +10.0%

Historical Pending Sales by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 4

A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.

Pending Sales

10,12811,594

13,330

2015 2016 2017

March

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

25,97928,858

32,407

2015 2016 2017

Year to Date

+ 12.3%+ 14.5% + 15.0% + 11.1%+ 20.9% + 25.7%

Page 5: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Closed Sales

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 10,075 9,358 +7.7%

May 2016 11,397 9,923 +14.9%

June 2016 12,213 11,048 +10.5%

July 2016 11,147 11,028 +1.1%

August 2016 11,283 9,898 +14.0%

September 2016 10,087 9,130 +10.5%

October 2016 9,122 8,570 +6.4%

November 2016 8,555 6,916 +23.7%

December 2016 9,216 8,914 +3.4%

January 2017 6,602 6,214 +6.2%

February 2017 7,475 7,277 +2.7%

March 2017 11,179 9,749 +14.7%

12-Month Avg 9,863 9,002 +9.6%

Historical Closed Sales by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 5

A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.

Closed Sales

8,7929,749

11,179

2015 2016 2017

March

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

20,87523,240

25,256

2015 2016 2017

Year to Date

+ 8.7%+ 10.9% + 14.7% + 11.3%+ 29.1% + 21.5%

Page 6: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Days on Market Until Sale

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 70 78 -10.3%

May 2016 59 73 -19.2%

June 2016 57 69 -17.4%

July 2016 55 67 -17.9%

August 2016 55 69 -20.3%

September 2016 58 71 -18.3%

October 2016 59 73 -19.2%

November 2016 60 74 -18.9%

December 2016 65 78 -16.7%

January 2017 68 82 -17.1%

February 2017 71 83 -14.5%

March 2017 66 76 -13.2%

12-Month Avg* 61 74 -17.6%

Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 6

Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.

Days on Market

* Average Days on Market of all properties from April 2016 through March 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

8376

66

2015 2016 2017

March

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

8680

68

2015 2016 2017

Year to Date

- 15.0%- 8.4% - 13.2% - 7.0%+ 1.2% + 3.6%

Page 7: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Median Sales Price

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 $187,000 $176,000 +6.3%

May 2016 $195,000 $185,000 +5.4%

June 2016 $198,000 $187,000 +5.9%

July 2016 $200,000 $185,000 +8.1%

August 2016 $190,000 $180,000 +5.6%

September 2016 $187,000 $177,500 +5.4%

October 2016 $186,218 $173,748 +7.2%

November 2016 $188,000 $175,000 +7.4%

December 2016 $188,625 $176,900 +6.6%

January 2017 $182,900 $167,500 +9.2%

February 2017 $186,500 $172,500 +8.1%

March 2017 $195,000 $180,000 +8.3%

12-Month Med* $190,000 $179,000 +6.1%

Historical Median Sales Price by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 7

Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

Median Sales Price

* Median Sales Price of all properties from April 2016 through March 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

$171,385 $180,000$195,000

2015 2016 2017

March

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

$165,000$174,500

$189,900

2015 2016 2017

Year to Date

+ 8.8%+ 5.0% + 8.3% + 5.8%+ 12.8% + 13.8%

Page 8: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Average Sales Price

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 $234,967 $220,673 +6.5%

May 2016 $239,640 $232,046 +3.3%

June 2016 $242,627 $237,636 +2.1%

July 2016 $245,159 $235,394 +4.1%

August 2016 $236,426 $227,505 +3.9%

September 2016 $229,869 $220,316 +4.3%

October 2016 $232,378 $215,282 +7.9%

November 2016 $234,654 $218,332 +7.5%

December 2016 $234,180 $221,916 +5.5%

January 2017 $225,122 $210,540 +6.9%

February 2017 $225,464 $211,888 +6.4%

March 2017 $239,107 $222,835 +7.3%

12-Month Avg* $235,831 $224,099 +5.2%

Historical Average Sales Price by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 8

Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

Avg. Sales Price

* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from April 2016 through March 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

$214,536 $222,835$239,107

2015 2016 2017

March

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

$207,251$216,118

$231,414

2015 2016 2017

Year to Date

+ 7.1%+ 3.9% + 7.3% + 4.3%+ 10.3% + 9.8%

Page 9: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Percent of Original List Price Received

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 95.9% 94.8% +1.2%

May 2016 96.0% 95.2% +0.8%

June 2016 96.3% 95.3% +1.0%

July 2016 96.1% 95.3% +0.8%

August 2016 95.6% 94.7% +1.0%

September 2016 95.4% 94.4% +1.1%

October 2016 95.3% 94.3% +1.1%

November 2016 95.1% 94.3% +0.8%

December 2016 94.8% 94.0% +0.9%

January 2017 95.0% 93.9% +1.2%

February 2017 95.3% 94.3% +1.1%

March 2017 96.0% 95.2% +0.8%

12-Month Avg* 95.6% 94.7% +1.0%

Historical Percent of Original List Price Received by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 9

Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties soldin a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.

Pct. of Orig. Price Received

* Average Pct. of Orig. Price Received for all properties from April 2016 through March 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

94.2% 95.2% 96.0%

2015 2016 2017

March

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

93.8% 94.5% 95.5%

2015 2016 2017

Year to Date

+ 1.1%+ 1.1% + 0.8% + 0.7%+ 0.3% 0.0%

Page 10: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Housing Affordability Index

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 212 229 -7.4%

May 2016 204 219 -6.8%

June 2016 204 212 -3.8%

July 2016 202 211 -4.3%

August 2016 213 219 -2.7%

September 2016 215 225 -4.4%

October 2016 219 229 -4.4%

November 2016 206 226 -8.8%

December 2016 199 224 -11.2%

January 2017 202 230 -12.2%

February 2017 204 231 -11.7%

March 2017 194 220 -11.8%

12-Month Avg 206 206 0.0%

Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 10

This index measures housing affordability for the region. For example, an index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

Affordability Index

233220

194

2015 2016 2017

March

100

200

300

400

500

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

242227

200

2015 2016 2017

Year to Date

- 11.9%- 5.6% - 11.8% - 6.2%- 2.1% - 2.8%

Page 11: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Inventory of Homes for Sale

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 42,403 44,998 -5.8%

May 2016 42,822 46,399 -7.7%

June 2016 44,033 47,706 -7.7%

July 2016 43,819 48,471 -9.6%

August 2016 43,283 48,077 -10.0%

September 2016 42,707 47,563 -10.2%

October 2016 41,551 46,273 -10.2%

November 2016 39,611 44,393 -10.8%

December 2016 36,530 41,523 -12.0%

January 2017 35,478 40,514 -12.4%

February 2017 35,133 39,957 -12.1%

March 2017 35,337 41,444 -14.7%

12-Month Avg 40,226 44,777 -10.2%

Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 11

The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.

Homes for Sale

43,716 41,444

35,337

2015 2016 2017

March

35,000

37,500

40,000

42,500

45,000

47,500

50,000

1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

- 5.2% - 14.7%+ 6.0%

Page 12: Market Activity for the 10marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/.../GAR_MMI_2017-03.pdfActivity Overview Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 3-2016 3-2017 Percent Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017

Months Supply of Inventory

Prior Year Percent Change

April 2016 4.6 5.5 -16.4%

May 2016 4.5 5.6 -19.6%

June 2016 4.6 5.6 -17.9%

July 2016 4.6 5.7 -19.3%

August 2016 4.5 5.5 -18.2%

September 2016 4.4 5.4 -18.5%

October 2016 4.3 5.2 -17.3%

November 2016 4.1 5.0 -18.0%

December 2016 3.7 4.6 -19.6%

January 2017 3.6 4.5 -20.0%

February 2017 3.5 4.4 -20.5%

March 2017 3.5 4.5 -22.2%

12-Month Avg 4.2 5.1 -17.6%

Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month

Current as of April 16, 2017 Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 12

The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.

Months Supply

* Months Supply for all properties from April 2016 through March 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

5.5

4.5

3.5

2015 2016 2017

March

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017

- 18.2% - 22.2%- 8.3%