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The Global Harvest Initiative and Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute
Present:
Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry:Building Resilient Agroecosystems
March 20, 2013#water4food
UNL-WFI -GHI World Water Day Panel Briefing, Washington DC, March 20, 2013
The Drought of 2012-2013
Mark Svoboda, ClimatologistMonitoring Program Area LeaderNational Drought Mitigation CenterSchool of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln
Standard Rainguage
Standard Rainguage
– New Nebraska Rainguage
Missouri River Mainstem SystemAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IA
Million Acre-Feet
U.D.
L.D.
L.Q.
U.Q.
Median
10%
90%
75%
25%
50%
Historic Drought Periods
2012
2011
Courtesy: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha, NE
2012 Drought RecapWarmest year on record for the Lower 48 states, beating 1998 by 1˚F
Every state in the contiguous U.S. had above-average annual temperature19 states had a record warm year26 states Top 10 warmestWarmest March and July on record for the U.S.
15th driest year on record for the U.S.Driest since 1988NE and WY driest years on recordUSDM peak of 65% U.S. in drought during September
2012 was the 2nd most extreme year on record with 11 disasters costing $1B or more, second only to 1998
2012 Drought Impacts
Economic loss estimates$35 billion, Aon Benfield
$50 billion, Morgan Stanley
$77 billion, Purdue University economist
Crop indemnities: $12.4 billion as of January 25th
Estimated to increase to $20 billion
2011 the previous record with $10.8 billion
State indemnities ($ billion): Illinois (1.8), Iowa (1.4), Kansas (1.2), Nebraska (1.2), Texas (1.2)
Crop indemnities ($ billion): corn (7.8), soybeans (1.6)
– 15
2012 U.S. Drought Reports by Sector
Looking ahead in 2013….
Seasonal Forecasts
Final Drought 2012-2013 Thoughts
2012-13 Fall and Winter none-too-kind for most thus far!U.S. (contiguous) has seen a 14% decrease in areal drought coverage since its peak (65%) last September, but we still have 51% of the U.S. in drought heading into Spring as compared to 30% last year this timeMost improvement seen in the Southeast and eastern Corn BeltGreat Lakes very lowSnow pack in the Rockies is a big concern (MO Basin)So, recent storms have helped, but…..
Spring rains will be critical for soil moisture recharge (grain/forage prospects tied to this)No buffer/carryover coming into 2013, unlike 2012…will be living rain event to event much earlier…heat waves likely again if below-normal soil moisture recharge takes place
Mark [email protected] Drought Mitigation Centerhttp://drought.unl.edu
Photo: Cimarron County, Oklahoma
Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, late June, 2008
The Global Harvest Initiative and Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute
Present:
Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry:Building Resilient Agroecosystems
March 20, 2013#water4food
