Mark D. Myers, PhDVice Chancellor for Research

Akureyri, IcelandOctober 9, 2013

An Integrated Approach to Oil Spill Research for the Offshore Arctic

Arctic Energy Summit 2013

Key Drivers That Will Effect Future Oil and Gas Development

1. Future Demand and Price World economy, non OCED and general growth

2. Energy Endowment Oil and gas are where you find it!

3. Development Technology Conventional and Unconventional Resources

4. Access to resourceChallenging environments, infrastructure and geopolitics

5. Environmental risk Particularly wrt oil spills and water (policy, technology

and investment)

USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Assessment

Circum-Arctic Non-Petroleum Resources

Lawson BrighamAMSA 12 August 2008

Diverse Sources of Spill Risk Needs Diverse Response Capacity

Crowley Marine

Anchorage Daily News, 21 Sept 2011/14 Nov 2012

Tugboat runs aground on Alaska Peninsula, stranding crew and barge. ADN : November 14, 2012

Highly complex interplay of physical, chemical, biological and social processes.

Peeling Back the Onion – Understanding the Ecosystem

is Dead

In the Arctic Stationarity - the concept and practice that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability

Dramatic Change in Sea Ice ExtentRapid ecosystem change

Increased access to energy, hard minerals and fishery resourcesIncreased shipping, tourism, and community access

National Snow and Ice Data Center

Photo by Mikhail Kanevskiy

Permafrost Thaw

Trends of decreasing sea ice and increased open-water fetch, combined with warming air and ground temperatures, are expected to result in higher wave energy, increased seasonal thaw, and accelerated coastal retreat along large parts of circum-Arctic coast.

photo Susan Flora, BLM

photo Cameron Wobus, CIRES

Coastal Erosion National Petroleum Reserve Alaska

USGS

Research Tracks Research Outcome

Targeted Observing System

Integrated Modeling and Data Assimilation

Data Dissemination (ERMA Framework)

Food Webs

Shoreline Cleanup and Assessment

Communities, Policy and Infrastructure

Mitigation

Detection

Impacts

Prevention

Improving Environmental Security & Oil-Spill Response Through an Integrated Coastal Observing System

Remote sensing* (km-scale): Coastal environments & infrastructure, ice hazardsCoastal radar* (sub-km scale): Vessel & ice tracking, ice dynamics & potential disaster responseAerial surveys (including UAVs), ice & sub-ice sensor systems*Local knowledge*: Potentially important role for disaster responseIntegration of data streams, GIS-based decision support systems*Leveraged through integration & assimilation of existing coastal observing system resources supported by NSF, DHS, and NOAA

Eicken, Petrich, Mahoney, et al.; www.sizonet.org

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Oil Trajectory Modeling inIce-Covered Waters

MonitoringPredicting

ProductsDaily to weekly forecasts for spill response and planning

Modeled oil-spill trajectories based on key spill scenarios for EIAs and risk assessments

Assimilation ofdata from the monitoring program into forecast model

Evaluate the capability of current state-of-the-art sea-ice models to predict oil-spill trajectories

Identify key research areas to transition models to operations

Regions Covered By High-Frequency shore-based, surface mapping radars (Open Water Season)

Coastal AK: NO Power Grid!

UAF built and tested an autonomous power system (wind, solar, & biodiesel).

System: proven, flexible, portable & arctic-proof. Can support other sensors.

The Future?8 radar-RPM systems can cover Beaufort and NE Chukchi (40,000 n.mi.2)

(Supported by: BOEM, DHS and AKDCED)

Coastal Radars map surface (upper 1 m) currents:

- hourly- over broad areas (~175 km) at

6-km resolution- real-time access via the Web- easily understandable- cost effective

To guide open-water response to marine spills (and other purposes).

Shore-based power available

~4MHz

Funded by:BOEMRE, Shell, and ConocoPhillips

9/25

9/26

9/27

9/28

Large temporal variability too…

Winsor, UAF, 2013

SFOS/UAF Autonomous Remote Technology Lab

Operates three Webb Slocum Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) gliders.

Non-propelled, autonomous, quiet, low-power, long-endurance specific AUV up to ~ 3-month missions using lithium batteries.

Two-way, real-time Iridium satellite communication mission change on the fly + relay data to scientists, numerical models and decision makers.

Unique, high-resolution (vertical and horizontal) surface-to-bottom data coverage.

SFOS/UAF Autonomous Remote Technology Lab

Operates three Webb Slocum Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) gliders.

Non-propelled, autonomous, quiet, low-power, long-endurance specific AUV up to ~ 3-month missions using lithium batteries.

Two-way, real-time Iridium satellite communication mission change on the fly + relay data to scientists, numerical models and decision makers.

Unique, high-resolution (vertical and horizontal) surface-to-bottom data coverage.

2010 Mission accomplishments: AUVs can successfully navigate large portions of the Chukchi Sea 65-day total glider missions using two Webb Slocum gliders >3,000 vertical hydrographic profiles >800 km of glider transects

UAF is the only academic entity operating joint glider/HF radar programs in the Arctic.

Oil Spill Monitoring Prince William Sound Technology Evaluation (Conoco Phillips

and BP)• Objective: Understand how small-unmanned aircraft can contribute to environmental cleanup operations associated with an oil spill

• Partners:– Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation– US Fish and Wildlife– Environmental Protection Agency

Prince William Sound AirspaceAeroVironment Puma Aircraft

BP’s Aeryon Scout

Meeting the Arctic Challenge

Unmanned Bering Sea Operation, May 2009

• UAF scientists successfully

overcame these challenges to obtain

high-resolution imagery for an ice

seal survey.

Lack of infrastructure:

• No runways• No cell phones

Harsh conditions:

• Icing potential• Low visibility

Ice Profiling LIDARDeployed by NASA in Greenland and Svalbard Norway

• Partnership with University of Colorado

LIDAR

Color Visible

SAR

Other Payloads•Ball Experimental Sea Surface Temperature (BESST) Radiometer:•Resolution: ±0.5 K (uncooled)

•BP Deepwater Horizon • SST from BESST

Miniature Meteorological Dropsondes: Wind speed and

direction Relative humidity Pressure Temperature

as a function of altitude (~ 5m vertical resolution)

Hyperspectral Imager:400-900 nm Up to 240 spectral bins<1 m spatial resolutionPush broom deployment for image cube generation

R/V SikuliaqLaunched October 2012 - Operational 2014 Seward Based Length 261, ’ 45 day endurance, ice strengthened 20 Crew, 26 Science

Managed and Operated by UAF - Supported by: NSF

Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Modeling

- High-resolution meteorological model developed

- Performs well year-round- Hindcasting studies underway- Forecasting capability

Wind Speed Wind Direction

Courtesy of Zhang and Zhang; UAF International Arctic Research Center and Arctic Supercomputer Center. Supported by BOEMRE.

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Oil in Ice:Measurement & Simulation

• Cold lab experiments & numerical modeling of oil entrainment & movement through ice

• Goal: Inform oil-spill response in coastal ice settings; improve oil-in-ice detection & modeling of ecological impacts

1

0

Po

rosi

ty

Food and Cultural Security

Toxicity of Dispersed Petroleum to Arctic Species

Species selected based upon role in the pelagic food web of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

Toxicity tests conducted on ANS crude oil:u Chemically dispersed (COREXIT 9500) u Mechanically dispersed ANS crude oil

Copepod (Calanus glacialis) Sculpin (Myoxocephalus)Arctic cod (Boreogadus)

Characterize food webs prior to spills

Use post-spill assessment to gage impact and monitor recovery

Engaged Research Community at UAF: Identified 40 Research Scientists studying topics from Anthropology to Zooplankton

COMMUNITIES

Some Components of an Enhanced Arctic Oil Spill Response Capacity

Building a Vibrant and Sustainable Future Requires

Research.

Environment

Economy

Human Health and Other Societal Values

• Integrated and authoritative data and technical means including long-term integrated data bases with near real time data

• Better models and decision support tools

• An integrated perspective to make wise decisions

• The best management techniques including effective adaptive management

Although you can learn much from the outside the conditions in the Arctic have

important differences that need to be considered

• Geology• Physical geography• Ecosystems and rate of ecosystem change• Culture • Infrastructure and access• Climate and weather• Data – depth, breath, and length of record

Rapid adaptation of new and emerging technologies, stronger partnerships and data fusion, and improved modeling, forecasting and planning can be achieved!

Questions?