Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Mines & Money December 2013
The way forward for the industry… the need to refocus on long term value creation
Value creation is driven by exploration success and reserve growth…
Valu
e
Time
exploration discovery
production
development
valuation?
market pays a premium
Brownfields
exploration:
further
discovery market pays full value
Gold price driven by supply and demand?...
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Mine Production Net Official Sector Sales
Scrap Hedging Supply
Implied Disinvestment Gold price
World gold supply tonnes Gold price US$/oz
Source: BMO 2013
Current Au price
Market capitalisation of the mining sector does not signal value creation…
Source: Scotiabank September 2013
US$ billion 2 250
2 000
1 750
1 500
1 250
1 000
750
500
250
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ 190B Precious: $ 20B
$ 1.9T Precious: $ 200B
$ 2.1T Precious: $ 360B
$ 1.1T Precious: $ 190B
Diversifieds / Base metals Precious metals Other (Royalty coys, diamonds, uranium, potash, lithium etc)
$ 660B Precious: $ 135B
A decade long bull market and global gold mine production…
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gold Production Gold Price
Tonnes produced US$/oz
Creating value for all stakeholders through discovery and development is a long term game…
-500%
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
3500%
4000%
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
Gold NEM KGC IAG GG GFI EGO AUY AU ABX RRL
2002 2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Randgold Resources
Share price performance
Gold price
Gold Price
US$/oz
Share performance
%
Despite increase in global exploration budgets new gold production has not been replaced since 2000…
0
10
20
30
50
70
80
90
40
60
Moz US$m
3 year average
potential
production in
new
discoveries
Grassroots
+ 75% of
late stage
budgets
0
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
1997 2011 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 98 99 00 0
Source: Metal Economics Group 2012
3 year ave production
potential from discoveries World gold production) Exploration budgets
Industry used the revenue margin to maintain reserves…
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Reserve Design Price Gold Price
US$/oz
Reserve design price vs gold price
Source: Scotiabank September 2013
The gold majors’ reserve assumptions diverged once gold broke US$1000/oz in 2010…
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2007 2009 2010 2011 2012
Kinross Newcrest Goldcorp Randgold Gold Fields
Harmony Newmont Anglogold Barrick
Randgold
Source: Barclays 2013
US$/oz gold
Gold industry…grade is key driver of base cost per ounce
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Reserve Grade Mining Head Grade
g/t
Reserve Grade vs Mining Head Grade
Source: Scotiabank September 2013
Total industry input costs increase circa 150% over 12 years…
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Diesel
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cyanide
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Steel balls
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Lime
US$ US$
US$ US$
Grade input costs and legislation are main drivers of cost inflation…
Less than 5% of BMO Research Universe gold production
has all-in-costs below spot
Cash cost AISC After Tax AISC All-in-cost
AIC
AT-AISC
AISC
CASH
3000
2000
1000
0
2500
1500
500
10 20 30 40 50
2013 E costs US$/oz
Source: BMO 2013
Cashflow from ops and capital US$B
BMO Research universe gold stock free cashflow…
Source: BMO 2013
0
40
20
-20
0
-40
40
20
-20
0
-40
Free cashflow US$B
Cashflow from operations Capex Free cashflow
2002 2005 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2004
SE Asia
Russia Central Asia
Canada
USA
Geology is the key driver in finding world class gold deposits…
Americas - 628
2.2Boz / 0.5g/t
Africa - 222
1.4Boz / 1.4g/t
Europe / Central Asia - 247
0.9Boz / 0.8g/t
Australasia - 268
1.3Boz / 0.6g/t
Total global gold resources – 1 465
5.8Boz / 0.6g/t
Source: Metals Economics Group – includes all global assets with >500oz contained Au
Central America
Australia West Africa
Central Africa
South Africa
South America
Alaska
Project selection…a key step in determining value creation
Does it apply principally to gold?
Have we identified and understood the country risks?
Does it fit our values?
Will we have active management participation
Will it enhance our partnering network
Does it diversify our geographical exposure?
Does it have a reserve potential greater than 3 million ounces of gold?
Does it have the potential to be + 250 000 oz per year producer
Can we move it up the value curve?
Does it have the potential to be in the lowest total unit cost quartile?
Can it produce an IRR in excess of 20%?
Does it have a payback of less than 5 years?
Is it accretionary to our share value?
Feasibility studies and due diligence… another critical step towards value creation
Feasibilities draw on in house skills in geology, mining, metallurgy, HR and logistics, while
pulling in experts in mine design, costing, environment, plant and infrastructure design
Orebody drives the
mine and plant design
Orebody quality determines
capital capacity
Geological and geotechnical
models determine the mining
method
Upfront trade off studies
required for principal concepts:
Open pit vs Underground
Decline vs Shaft
UG mining methods
Metallurgical domains are geologically
driven
Geometallurgy drives metallurgical
testwork
Representativity of samples critical
Plant designed for bulk ore type
Feasibility must pass key filters of
GOLD, CRITICAL MASS and VALUE
to advance to next stage
Shaft
Open pit
Declines
Orebody
Discovery to development… a key variable to consider
0 5 10 15 20
Kibali
Gounkoto
Tongon
Yalea
Gara
Morila
Mean
Gold price…a critical assumption in modelling returns
US $/oz
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
1971
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
1985
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
1999
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
2013
3 year average US$ 1 538
10 year average US$ 1 039
15 year average US$ 799
5 year average US$ 1 421
Capital cost estimates… a critical value driver
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Initial capital estimate Final updated capex
Source: Scotiabank
US$ B
Size does count...What is world class?
Assume a project with the following characteristics
Total cash cost : US$ 900 / oz
Upfront capital : US$ 500 million
Ongoing capital : 3% of total cash cost
Annual production in base case : 200 000 ounces
Base case Gold Price of US$ 1 600 / oz
Three scenarios considered for this project
1 million ounce deposit
3 million ounce deposit
10 million ounces deposit
The impact of negative changes in the gold price on returns are less severe in the case of larger deposits
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Project Gold Price Sensitivity - IRR
P1 : 1M oz P2 : 3M oz P3 : 10M oz
IRR
Gold price US$ / oz
Impact of feasibility input costs on IRR with different reserve basis…
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
P1 : 1M oz P2 : 3M oz P3 : 10M oz
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
P1 : 1M oz P2 : 3M oz P3 : 10M oz
IRR
Increase in cost
Project Grade / Recovery
Sensitivity - IRR
Operating Cost Variance
Sensitivity - IRR
IRR
Negative grade / recovery movement
Value per share is the key driver of TSR…. reserve oz and grade/share
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Reserves Moz Resources Moz Reserve oz/share
Oz/share Million ounces Grade g/t
4
3
2
1
0
Grade
Grade
Reserve oz/share
Building a link between capital, governments and labour…a partnership philosophy!
Mining
Companies
and
Investors
Employees
and
communities
Governments
NGO’s and
Regulators
Provide enabling
platform for business
Provide or incentivise
development of
infrastructure
Mining code conducive
to fiscal and legal
stability, and good
governance
Responsibility of
mining companies:
Responsibility of
Governments:
Attract first world finance
Guard against exploitation of equity markets at expense of host country
Deal honestly and transparently with governments
Create jobs
Transfer skills
Support local suppliers
Have meaningful social responsibility programmes
Disclaimer…
Competent persons:
COMPETENT PERSONS: Yalea and Gara mineral resources from Loulo were calculated by Mr Abdoulaye Ngom, an officer of the company, under the
supervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Loulo 3 and Baboto mineral resources from Loulo were
calculated by Mr Ivan Doku, an independent consultant, and reviewed by Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person.
Faraba mineral resources from Gounkoto were calculated by Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Tongon mineral
resources were calculated by Mr Mamadou Ly and Mr Babacar Diouf, both officers of the company, under the supervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an
officer of the company and competent person. Morila mineral resources were calculated by Mr Adama Kone, an officer of the company, under the
supervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Kibali mineral resources were calculated by Mr Ernest Doh, an
officer of the company and competent person. Morila open pit resources were calculated by Miss Paula Oligive, an independent consultant, under the
supervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Gounkoto mineral resources were calculated by Mr Fredrick de
Bruin, an independent consultant, under the supervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Mr Johan
Kleynhans and Mr Rodney Quick are members of SACNASP and both have sufficient experience in the style of mineralisation and types of deposits
under consideration and the activity which they are undertaking as competent person as defined in the 2004 addition in the ‘Australasian Code for
Reporting Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves’.
The Loulo, Tongon, Morila and Gounkoto open pit mineral reserves were calculated by Mr Shaun Gillespie, an independent consultant and competent
person and member of SAIMM. Kibali open pit mineral reserves were generated by Mr Nicholas Coomson, an officer of the company and competent
person and member of AusIMM. Loulo underground reserves were calculated by Mr Mamou Toure, an officer of the company, and reviewed by Mr Mark
Odell, an independent consultant and competent person and practising professional engineer. Massawa mineral reserves remain unchanged from last
year and were calculated by Mr Onno ten Brinke, an independent consultant and competent person and member of AusIMM, and reviewed by Mr
Rodney Quick, an officer of the company and competent person. The Kibali underground mineral reserves were calculated by Mr Tim Peters of Piran
Mining and reviewed by Mr Dan Donald of Mine RP, both independent consultants and competent person and members of AusIMM. All competent
person have sufficient experience in the style of mineralisation and types of deposits under consideration and the activity which they are undertaking as
competent person as defined in the 2004 addition in the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore
Reserves’.Cautionary note to US investors: The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) permits mining companies, in their filings
with the SEC, to disclose only proven and probable ore reserves. Randgold uses certain terms in this report such as ‘resources’ that the SEC does not
recognise and strictly prohibits the company from including in its filings with the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any parts of the
company’s resources will ever be converted into reserves which qualify as ‘proven and probable reserves’ for the purposes of the SEC’s Industry Guide
number 7.
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussed
in this presentationare forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the US
Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements
with respect to the future price of gold, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the realisation of mineral reserve estimates, the timing and
amount of estimated future production, costs of production, reserve determination and reserve conversion rates. Generally, these forward-looking
statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as ‘will’, ‘plans’, ‘expects’ or ‘does not expect’, ‘is expected’, ‘budget’,
‘scheduled’, ‘estimates’, ‘forecasts’, ‘intends’, ‘anticipates’ or ‘does not anticipate’, or ‘believes’, or variations of such words and phrases or state that
certain actions, events or results ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘would’, ‘might’ or ‘will be taken’, ‘occur’ or ‘be achieved’. Assumptions upon which such forward-looking
statements are based are in turn based on factors and events that are not within the control of Randgold Resources Limited (‘Randgold’) and there is no
assurance they will prove to be correct. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may
cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Randgold to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such
forward-looking statements, including but not limited to: risks related to mining operations, including political risks and instability and risks related to
international operations, actual results of current exploration activities, conclusions of economic evaluations, changes in project parameters as plans
continue to be refined, as well as those factors discussed in Randgold’s filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the ‘SEC’). Although
Randgold has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking
statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such
statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly,
readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Randgold does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements herein,
except in accordance with applicable securities laws.
CAUTIONARY NOTE TO US INVESTORS: The SEC permits companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proven and probable ore
reserves. We use certain terms in this release, such as ‘resources’, that the SEC does not recognise and strictly prohibits us from including in our filings
with the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any parts of our resources will ever be converted into reserves which qualify as ‘proven
and probable reserves’ for the purposes of the SEC’s Industry Guide number 7.
