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Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce: Perceptions of Both Wives and their Husbands
Elyse Jennings University of Michigan
Population Studies Center Research Report 12-760 June 2012
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 1
ABSTRACT
We know little about what causes divorce in contexts outside of the West. This paper focuses on marital dissolution in a rural, agrarian context of Nepal that has recently experienced a great deal of social change. Marriage in this context is highly valued, with far-reaching significance for not only the husband and wife but also for their extended families. Marital dissolutions due to separation or divorce have been very rare until the recent past. Furthermore, women have few opportunities to be independent, and therefore have disincentive to dissolve their marriages. I explore the factors influencing marital dissolution in this South Asian setting, comparing these factors to Western influences on divorce. I then focus on the influence of marital discord, using unique, couple-level data with measures of three types of discord (disagreements, criticisms, and abuse), as self-reported by each spouse. Results reveal that (1) many of the factors that influence marital dissolution in Western contexts play a similar role in this context, (2) wives’ reports of discord have an important influence on the odds of marital dissolution across types of discord, while husbands reports of disagreements and abuse, only, have a significant influence, and (3) the influence of wives’ reports of discord is independent of their husbands’ reports of the same.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 2
INTRODUCTION
Divorce is prevalent in many societies throughout the world (Goode 1993). Even in
settings where divorce has been relatively rare until the recent past, it is on the rise. Nepal is such
a setting, where marriage maintains great value amidst rapid social changes and amidst the
increasing prevalence of divorce. Nearly every young Nepali person marries, which
automatically exposes them to the possibility of experiencing marital dissolution. From Western
contexts we know that the economic consequences of divorce are particularly detrimental for
women (Holden and Smock 1991; Smock, Manning, and Gupta 1999). There is good reason to
expect these consequences to be even more detrimental for women in South Asian contexts
where there are fewer opportunities for their economic independence. Furthermore, the value of
marital unions is tied to the entire family—not just the wife and husband (Bennett 1983; Fricke
1986; Gilbert 1992; Ghimire et al. 2006)—extending the consequences of dissolutions to many
people. These factors combine to make the study of rising divorce in South Asia a high scientific
priority.
This paper investigates the factors that influence marital dissolution in a rural, agrarian
part of Nepal. The context provides the unique opportunity to explore whether the factors related
to divorce in Western settings are relevant even in a place where divorce is still very rare. Given
the drastically different social circumstances, I expand upon Western theoretical frameworks for
understanding divorce and investigate the additional factors that may influence divorce in this
rural South Asia setting. Next, I examine whether martial discord has an influence on divorce
that is independent of these relevant factors. Specifically, I investigate whether wives’ and their
husbands’ own reports of discord individually and independently influence the likelihood that
their marriage will dissolve, across multiple types of discord.
Detailed, couple-level measures of experiences both outside of the home and within
marriage are unusual, and even more unusual are independent reports of each spouses’
perceptions of and experiences with discord. The Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) of rural
Nepal provides these rare measures, allowing the investigation of the influence of these factors
on couples’ subsequent 13 years of marital dissolution. In the following paragraphs, I outline the
theoretical framework that guides this investigation.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 3
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Because divorce has rarely been studied outside of Western settings, we must rely largely
on what we know from past research in the US and other Western settings in identifying
potential predictors of divorce in South Asia. While experiences such as education, work
experience, length of marriage and fertility within marriage are likely to play important roles in
marital longevity across settings, rural Nepal is a setting with particular cultural practices that
may also influence marital dissolution.
In this section, I describe the marital practices in this rural Nepalese setting. I then outline
the predictors of marital dissolution that Nepal is likely to share with Western contexts, and the
additional factors to take into consideration due to the marital practices specific to this setting. It
is important to consider the potential for these factors to influence marital dissolution as we turn
to the possible independent influence of marital discord. In this next section, I discuss how
different types of discord can lead to marital dissolution. Even more important, spouses’
individual perceptions of these different types of discord may lead to independent influences on
marital dissolution. The theoretical framework concludes with a discussion of why each
spouses’ perceptions are expected to affect couples’ likelihood of dissolving.
Marital Dissolution in Rural Nepal
In any given setting, married couples’ likelihood of dissolution is related to the meaning
and value of marriage among that population. In rural Nepal, the high value of marriage is
indicated in its universality and early occurrence. The age at first marriage between 1990 and
1996 was 17.6 for women and 21.9 for men, with over 98% of men and women married by their
early 30s (Yabiku 2005). Marriage is especially important for the gendered division of labor
within households, as women are responsible for certain tasks both in the field and in the home
(Allendorf 2007). Less than half of Nepali women in the CVFS had work experience outside of
the home before marriage (29% as of 2008), although more women work for wages during
marriage (44% of women who were married for at least 5 years in 2008).1 Work experience is
intertwined with religious and cultural practices. For example, wives of lower caste groups more
often work outside the home, out of necessity, than wives of upper caste groups (Acharya 1994;
Bennett 1983; Cameron 1998; Stash and Hannum 2001). As another way of maintaining the
1 These numbers represent women’s first marriages among those ever married as of 2008; 3654 women had ever been married in 2008, and 3344 had been married for at least 5 years.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 4
prestigious status of their caste, these upper caste women are also under more strict rules of
obedience to their husbands and in-laws (Bennett 1983), although wives of all groups are at a
power disadvantage in the household (Allendorf 2007; Allendorf forthcoming; Jayaweera 1997).
Thus, marriage is an important, valued institution which involves well-defined norms and
customs.
Not surprising among a population that places a high value on marriage, marital
dissolution in this setting is very rare (Parry 2001). Just as with other aspects of social life in
Nepal, the practice of marital dissolution is based on Hindu customs. Hindu code historically has
not recognized marital dissolution, but many groups of Hindus have practiced dissolution
nonetheless (Holden 2008; Parry 2001). This practice has been more common among lower
caste, marginalized groups, while it has been extremely rare for the upper castes (Holden 2008).
In many circumstances, marital dissolution does not necessarily involve the legal system, and
often involves separation without a subsequent divorce (Parry 2001).
The unique customs and prevalence of marital dissolution require the consideration of
setting-specific theory in studying factors that may influence marital dissolution. Age at
marriage, length of marriage, spousal coresidence, and marital fertility are likely to depress
marital dissolution, as they do in Western settings (Bumpass and Sweet 1972; Becker, Landes,
and Michael 1977; Cherlin 1977; Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan 2003; Morgan, Lye and
Condran 1988; Morgan and Rindfuss 1985; South 2001; Thornton and Rodgers 1987; Waite,
Haggstrom and Kanouse 1985; Waite and Lillard 1991). However, wives’ nonfamily experiences
may exert a unique influence in this setting, where experiences and behaviors are highly
gendered and there has recently been rapid social change. For example, the influence of wives’
education is typically found to increase divorce in Western settings (Heuveline and Poch 2006;
Kalmijn, Graaf and Poortman 2004; Teachman 2002), but education may reduce the likelihood
of divorce in this setting. There is a common belief that wives’ education will facilitate a better
marriage, as conveyed by one 25 year old Nepali woman: “A couple should be educated. If a
wife is educated then she can understand her husband and there can be a good understanding
between them.”2 Wives’ work experience may also increase divorce, as this kind of experience
may lower the cost of divorce and increase wives’ autonomy (Oppenheimer 1994; Thornton
1985). 2 The quotes in this paper come from qualitative interviews conducted by the author in Chitwan, Nepal in the Fall of 2010.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 5
Additional factors, unique to this setting, may influence marital dissolution. First, it is
typical for parents and other relatives to arrange the marriages of youth, although it is becoming
more common for young people to choose their own marriage partner (Ghimire et al. 2006;
Niraula 1995). Participation in spouse choice may increase couples’ likelihood of dissolving, as
this indicates autonomy and a value on independent decision-making. Second, Nepalese families
practice patrilocal residence. Thus, most women move into her husband’s natal home upon
marriage. Women who live a greater distance from their natal home have less access to the
support from their family and many of their friends (Dyson and Moore 1983). Without proximity
to their natal home and the social and economic support it can bring, women may be less likely
to consider divorce as an option (Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan 2003). Third, farmland
ownership is highly relevant in this economy that largely relies on subsistence agriculture
(Shivakoti, Axinn, Bhandari, and Chhetri 1999). Women in landless households tend to work
outside their home for compensation (Cameron 1998), eliminating some disincentive to divorce.
Furthermore, land ownership is an indicator of the household’s socioeconomic status, and a
woman may be less inclined to leave a household that has more wealth.
Marital Discord
Discord within marriage is a strong predictor of marital dissolution in Western contexts.
Not only do measures of discord collected through observational methods demonstrate this, but
measures collected by survey items also demonstrate it (Amato and Rogers 1997; DeMaris 2000;
Gottman 1994; Matthews, Wickrama, and Conger 1996). However, in a context in which divorce
is rare and stigmatized, we might not expect marital dissolution to be as sensitive to marital
discord. On the other hand, it is likely that these rare marital dissolutions occur for relatively
drastic reasons. For example, instead of dissolution occurring due to a general lack of emotional
fulfillment (Amato and Hohmann-Marriot 2007; Riessman 1990), marital dissolution may
require more frequent or drastic discord as perceived by at least one of the spouses.
Frequent marital discord can lead to a growing dissatisfaction for the partners involved,
which can cause them to consider alternatives to remaining married. For example, a person who
endures frequent marital discord may grow dissatisfied and begin to consider their prospects for
living independently. If they feel that those prospects are preferable to remaining in the marriage,
they may leave their spouse. Similarly, a person who grows dissatisfied with their marriage due
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 6
to frequent discord may seek alternative romantic relationships. Evidence from the US clearly
demonstrates people are more likely to leave their marriage if they have or perceive alternatives
to their current spouse (South and Lloyd 1995). Through these mechanisms, marital discord may
lead to marital dissolution.
Disagreements, criticisms, and abuse are three types of marital discord that each entail a
particular level of severity, which can influence marital outcomes. Disagreements and criticisms,
being verbal types of discord, may be less severe and have a lesser impact on dissolution than
physical abuse. Physical abuse may be a powerful reminder of an unhappy marriage and may
provide the victimized spouse with greater incentive to seek marital dissolution than verbal
discord. However, spouses experiencing physical abuse may face more obstacles in leaving the
marriage than spouses experiencing verbal discord. Wives, in particular, may fear heightened
physical repercussions in seeking an escape from an abusive husband (Anderson 2007;
Kirkwood 1993; Naved, Azim, Bhuiya, and Persson 2006; Strube and Barbour 1983), depressing
their likelihood of experiencing dissolution. On the other hand, a wife in this situation may
garner more support from her natal family in seeking to dissolve her marriage as a result of this
severe form of discord (Eldar-Avidan and Haj-Yahia 2000; Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan
2003; Kunz and Kunz 1995). So, discord is likely to increase couples’ odds of dissolution, but
there are also reasons to expect that wives who are hit by their husbands may be less likely to
experience marital dissolution.
The nature of the measurement of these three types of discord can play a role in how they
influence dissolution. In the CVFS data, used in the analyses below, disagreements are measured
as a more mutual type of discord, with each spouse potentially being involved in a similar way.
When reporting on the frequency of disagreements in a marriage, wives and husbands are
reporting on shared experiences. When reporting on criticisms and abuse, on the other hand, they
are reporting on their individual experiences with the role of victim. While spouses with shared
experiences of discord may have similar motivations to dissolve the marriage, spouses in the role
of victim may have motivations that are unique from the perpetrating spouse.
While this section has considered the influence of marital discord on marital dissolution
generally, the following section considers the potentially independent influence of each spouses’
perceptions of discord.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 7
Wives’ and Husbands’ Experiences and Perceptions of Discord
Likely more important than the frequency of discord in marriages are the perceptions of
the spouses that endure that discord. The individual spouses in any marital union have their own,
individual perceptions of the experiences they share as a couple. These perceptions might be
congruent, or they might be distinct. In fact, even if there is one objective truth in these
experiences, each spouse may internalize these “truths” in different ways. For example, there is
evidence that wives and husbands hold distinct perceptions of how their marriage was formed
(Bernard 1982), the amount that each spouse contributes to the housework (Hochschild and
Machung 1989; Kluwer, Heesink, and Van de Vliert 1996; Smith, Gager, and Morgan 1998;
Wilkie, Ferree, and Ratcliff 1998), the intensity of discord (Amato and Rogers 1997; Benin and
Agostinelli 1988; Gottman 1994; Matthews, Wickrama, and Conger 1996), and—in the case of
marital dissolution—what caused their marriage to fail (Stewart et al. 1997). By extension, we
might expect wives and husbands to hold separate perceptions of discord in their marriage, and it
is these perceptions that are likely to be important influences on whether they choose to dissolve
their marriage.
These perceptions of discord held by the two spouses can have independent influences on
marital outcomes, even if they are very similar. For example, wives who perceive frequent
discord may be just as likely as their husbands who perceive a similar frequency of discord to
decide that dissolving their marriage would be desirable. On the other hand, a wife perceiving a
high frequency of discord may be more likely to endure the discord than her husband, since
women have fewer opportunities after a divorce (Strube and Barbour 1983). In the former case,
we would expect that both spouses’ perceptions of discord have an influence on the marital
outcome. In the latter case, we would expect that husbands’ perceptions of discord have more
influential impact on the outcome of the marriage.
Husbands in this setting are especially likely to influence marital outcomes. They tend to
hold a great deal of power in relationships, relative to their wives (Bennett 1983; Chapagain
2006). Research on couples in the US has found that husbands’ perceptions of unfairness and
disagreements are more predictive of dissolution than wives’ perceptions (Sanchez and Gager
2000). In Nepal, there are reasons to expect that the influence of husbands’ perceptions will be
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 8
even stronger than in the US, relative to wives’ perceptions. Men have liberties that women do
not, such as the means to own land and to remarry. Women face greater stigma in remarriage and
impaired economic prospects compared to men (Holden 2008), presenting a situation in which a
married woman is dependent on her husband for livelihood and has few or no other marital
options. Thus, husbands may face fewer obstacles than wives in seeking marital dissolution. If
this is the case, then we might expect husbands’ perceptions of discord to independently
influence couples’ likelihood of marital dissolution.
Although husbands in Nepal have greater power in marriage than wives, wives may have
greater incentive to seek dissolution from a discord-ridden marriage. Wives, unlike husbands, do
not have the option of remarrying before a dissolution. Although polygamy has been illegal in
Nepal since 1963, it is still practiced in many parts of the country (Deuba and Rana 2001). As a
result of this practice, a husband is able to bring a second spouse into the home as an alternative
to a discord-ridden marriage and an alternative to facing stigma due to divorce. However, in this
part of the country, polygamy in which the wife takes multiple husbands is nonexistent. Hence,
wives’ perceptions of discord may be expected to have a greater impact on marital dissolution
than husbands’ reports.
There are other reasons to expect that wives’ reports will have an independent influence.
Nepal has seen recent legal advances in women’s rights. For example, women have gained the
right to file for divorce and the right to request custody of their children (Guanle 2001; The
Women’s Foundation of Nepal). Women have also made some advances in the ability to be
independent post-divorce. For example, although it is not yet a common practice, women have
gained the right to inherit or own land (Acharya et al. 2007; Gilbert 1992; Allendorf 2007).
Additionally, the recent social changes, discussed above, have allowed women more access to
human capital via the spread of education. With these various advances, the obstacles to divorce
may be diminished and women may be motivated to dissolve their marriage in the case of
frequent discord. So, wives’ reports of marital discord can have an important influence on
marital dissolution, and this influence may be independent of their husbands’ reports.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 9
DATA
The Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS), conducted in rural Nepal, provides rare
couple-level data on spouses’ experiences and perceptions of marital discord. The data collection
began with the fielding of a baseline survey of 72-minute, face-to-face interviews in 1996. The
CVFS interviewed all household members, aged 15–59 and their spouses (even if outside this
age range or living elsewhere), of every household in 151 sampled neighborhoods. The data are
ideal for studying spouses’ perceptions of relationship dynamics, as baseline interviews were
conducted with 1633 married couples. Special care was taken to interview spouses
simultaneously in two different locations to enhance the independence of their responses. These
parallel and independent data from married couples allows for the unique ability to link
respondents’ reports of marital discord to reports made by their own spouses.
Following the 1996 baseline interview, monthly interviews were conducted with the
original respondents, as part of a household registry that began in 1997. These monthly
interviews collected information on family and life events such as marriage, fertility,
contraceptive use, separation due to marital discord, and divorce. For this registry, one member
of the household is interviewed each month and asked to report on the experiences of all
household members. I use reports of marital discord from the 1996 baseline interview to predict
marital dissolution with 13 years of data from the household registry.
The sample I analyze includes all women aged 14 to 31 in 1996, who were in their first
marriage, and whose husband was also interviewed in 1996 (n=683 couples). My analysis
follows the couples’ monthly hazard of marital dissolution for 162 months. I study couples in
which the wives were age 31 and under in 1996 because the experience of marital dissolution is
very rare and infrequent for women above this age range in the subsequent 162 months.3 Thus,
the rates of experiencing marital dissolution are higher for this group of couples, maximizing the
opportunity to examine the consequences of marital discord for dissolution. Even in restricting
the sample to those couples experiencing the highest rate of dissolution, the rate is low: 5% of
the 683 women experienced marital dissolution in the 162 months of observation. Such a low
rate of events might be expected to produce nonsignificant results in the associations between the
independent measures and marital dissolution.
3 Eight out of 504 women above age 31 experienced dissolution in the 162 months.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 10
MEASURES
Dependent Variable
I operationalize the concept of marital dissolution by combining the events of marital separation and divorce. This is a common approach among authors who study this topic, as there often is a legal lag in the time from separation to divorce (Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan 2003; Morgan and Rindfuss 1985; Morgan, Lye, and Condran 1988; Martin and Bumpass 1989; Schoen 1992; South 2001). In Nepal, similar to the US, marital separation and divorce are two distinct concepts: separation is commonly understood by people in Nepal as “chhuttiyera baseko”, while divorce is understood as “sambandha bichhed”. Combining separation and divorce into a single type of event allows me to pinpoint the time that the marriage was first disrupted, instead of the time point at which the legal process was completed. This is especially important in a setting where couples often do not bother with the legal system, and where separation often occurs without divorce.
Following previous research on divorce in Asia (Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan 2003), I focus on dissolution of first marriages. Later marriages are especially non-institutionalized in this setting (Cherlin 1978; Holden 2008; Parry 2001). Additionally, Western literature demonstrates that remarriages are likely to have significantly different causes and are prone to a greater likelihood of dissolution than first marriages (Becker et al. 1977; Bramlett and Mosher 2002; Cherlin 1978), indicating that remarriage is selective of a different type of people than the universe of first marriages. Furthermore, first marriage in Nepal is an event that nearly everyone experiences (Yabiku 2002), while remarriage is very rare: only about 11% of ever married women ages 40 and older in 2008 had been married more than once.
The measure of dissolution comes from the household registry data, in which one member of the household reports on the divorce and separation experiences of all household members. I use 162 months of data on marital dissolution to operationalize the monthly hazard of marital dissolution in discrete time. The discrete time approach yields results similar to a continuous approach because the incidence of marital dissolution in any one month is quite low, but the discrete time approach allows the avoidance of making any parametric assumptions regarding the distribution of the underlying baseline hazard (Yamaguchi 1991). The measure of marital dissolution is coded as 0 for every month the woman is married and 1 for the first month in which the woman is separated or divorced, after which they cease to contribute to person-months of exposure to risk of marital dissolution. Widowhood is treated as a competing risk, so that women whose husbands die cease to contribute person-months to the hazard.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 11
Table 1: Descriptive Statistics for First-Time Married Couples with Wives Ages 14-31 in 1996
Measure Mean Standard Deviation Minimum Maximum
Marital dissolution (proportion) 0.05 0.21 0.00 1.00 Frequency of Disagreements Wives’ report 1.80 0.70 1.00 4.00 Husbands’ report 1.80 0.73 1.00 4.00 Frequency of being Criticized Wives’ report 1.65 0.68 1.00 4.00 Husbands’ report 1.56 0.66 1.00 4.00 Ever Hit by Spouse Wives’ report 0.13 0.34 0.00 1.00 Husbands’ report 0.03 0.16 0.00 1.00 Nonfamily Experiences Wife’s educational Attainment 3.83 4.04 0.00 14.00 Wife ever worked for wages 0.43 0.50 0.00 1.00 Marriage Characteristics Wife’s age at marriage 16.85 2.47 9.00 28.00 Wife’s level of spouse choice 2.11 1.69 1.00 5.00 Husband’s level of spouse choice 2.97 1.78 0.00 5.00 Length of marriage (months) 93.22 55.61 1.00 253.00 Coresidence 0.71 0.45 0.00 1.00 Fertility Experiences Number of children born 2.08 1.44 0.00 7.00 Characteristics of Marital Home Household owns farmland (khet or bari) 0.80 0.40 0.00 1.00 Distance from wife’s natal home 2.82 0.58 1.00 4.00 Wife’s Demographics Brahmin/Chettri (upper caste) 0.48 0.50 0.00 1.00 Dalit (low caste) 0.12 0.32 0.00 1.00 Hill Indigenous 0.16 0.36 0.00 1.00 Terai Indigenous 0.24 0.43 0.00 1.00 Cohort age 14-23 in 1996 0.46 0.50 0.00 1.00 Cohort age 24-31 in 1996 0.54 0.50 0.00 1.00
Total couples in sample 683 Total experiencing marital dissolution 35
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 12
Independent Measures
Couple and individual experiences. I will first investigate the influence of nonfamily
experiences, marital characteristics, fertility experiences, characteristics of the marital home, and
wives’ demographics on marital dissolution. Nonfamily experiences includes wives’ education,
coded as the number of completed years of education as of 1996. In this setting, education is
expected to decrease marital dissolution via a greater tolerance for unhappy marriages, though
US research indicates that the opposite effect is also possible (Heuveline and Poch 2006;
Kalmijn, Graaf and Poortman 2004; Teachman 2002). I also include wives’ work as an indicator
of nonfamily experiences, coded as a dummy variable to indicate whether the wife ever worked
for pay as of 1996.
Marriage characteristics include wives’ age at marriage, the length of the marriage,
coresidence, and level of spouse choice. Age at marriage and length of marriage may reduce
dissolution through similar mechanisms of greater maturity at marriage (Morgan and Rindfuss
1985) and a reduced acquisition of new information about a partner that could lead to dissolution
(Morgan and Rindfuss 1985; Becker et al. 1977). Wife’s age at marriage is coded in years, and
length of marriage is coded in months since the month of marriage. Spousal coresidence can also
play an important role in marital relations in this context, where men often leave their families
temporarily to earn money in a separate location (Williams Forthcoming). Coresidence is coded
1 in the months that the wife is living with her husband and 0 in the months that they do not live
together. These monthly time-varying measures are each lagged by one month. Level of spouse
choice may increase the odds of dissolution via increased independent choice and a decreased
value on family norms. This variable is coded on a scale from 1 to 5, from having no choice of
their spouse (1) to having complete choice (5)4. Because spouses within the same marriage may
have experienced different levels of spouse choice, I investigate measures as reported by both the
wife and the husband.
Couples’ fertility experience is operationalized as their number of children, coded as a
time-varying covariate to indicate the total number of children (both sons and daughters) that the
couple had in each month, and lagged by one month. Marital fertility should decrease the
likelihood of dissolution, since children raise the cost of divorce (Waite and Lillard 1991). In
4 Refer to Ghimire et al. (2006) for complete description of this coding.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 13
fact, fertility may have an especially strong influence in this setting, where joint custody is much
less common and children have a direct economic value for the many households that rely on
subsistence agriculture (Cain 1977; Karki 1988).
Characteristics of the marital home include a measure of the amount of farmland owned
by the marital household and the distance of the marital home from wives’ natal home. Amount
of farmland is coded as a dummy variable, so that a value of 1 indicates that the household owns
either khet or bari land—the two types of farmland, each used to for growing different types of
crops. Distance of the marital home from the wives’ natal home is coded on a scale of 1 to 4,
where a value of 1 indicates that the wife lives with her parents; 2 indicates that she lives in the
same village as her parents; 3 indicates that she can reach her parents’ house in one day; and 4
indicates that it takes her longer than one day to reach her parents’ house.
I also investigate demographic characteristics. First, ethnicity is extremely important in
all aspects of social life in this context. Ethnicity is complex, multi-faceted, and related to both
caste and religion in Nepal (for detailed descriptions of the different ethnic groups, see Bennett
1983; Cameron 1998; Fricke 1986; and Guneratne 2002). Upper Caste Hindus tend to be most
strict about following Hindu customs (Bennett 1983; Stash and Hannum 2001). For example,
upper caste girls are married at particularly young ages in order to ensure their purity for their
husband (Bennett 1983; Niraula and Morgan 1996). Thus, couples of these high caste groups
may endure especially intense pressure for their marriages to succeed and may perceive great
difficulty in remarrying. Other ethnic groups have less strict marital customs to adhere to (Fricke
1986; Cameron 1998) and, thus, face fewer obstacles in dissolving their marriages. Wives’
ethnicity is coded as four dummy variables: Brahmin/Chettri (or upper caste Hindus), Dalit (or
low caste Hindus), Hill Indingenous, and Terai Indigenous.5 6
Second, the rapid and recent social changes in this Nepalese context give younger cohorts
broader exposure to Western perspectives about marriage and divorce than older cohorts. With
divorce becoming more prevalent (Goode 1993; Thornton and Lin 1994), younger cohorts are
exposed to the option of divorce and may be exposed to more positive attitudes toward divorce.
Furthermore, younger cohorts of women are exposed to more education, as discussed above. 5 Because the number of women in the Newari ethnic group that fit the sample restrictions is very small (N=38), and very few experience dissolution (N=2), I do not include those of Newar ethnicity in the sample. 6 Note that while these ethnicity measures are based on wives’ ethnicity, nearly all couples in the sample have intra-caste marriages.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 14
Greater education and exposure to Western perspectives can increase the spread of new ideas
about individual independence in the family (Axinn and Barber 2001; Ghimire et al. 2006).
Together these mechanisms may increase the susceptibility of younger cohorts to experiencing
marital dissolution. Wives’ age cohort is coded into two dummy variables, to indicate whether
the wife was between ages 14 and 23 in 1996 and whether the wife was ages 24 to 31 in 1996.7
Marital discord measures. Next, I will investigate the effects of reported disagreements,
criticisms, and abuse within their marriage with three different survey items. First, I use a
variable indicating spouses’ perceptions of the frequency of disagreements . This variable comes
from a survey item asking “How often do you have disagreements with your (husband/wife)?
Frequently, sometimes, seldom, or never?” Second, I use a variable indicating frequency of
being criticized. This measure comes from a survey item asking “How often does your
(husband/wife) criticize you? Frequently, sometimes, seldom, or never?” I code each of these
two measures so that a value of 1 indicates “never”, 2 indicates “seldom”, 3 indicates
“sometimes”, and 4 indicates “frequently.” Third, ever hit by spouse is measured with a survey
item that asks “Has your (husband/wife) ever hit you?” with response options “Yes” and “No.”
This variable is coded 0 for “no” and 1 for “yes.”
Table 2 displays the correlations of spouses’ reports within types of discord. Although
correlations for reports of criticisms and abuse are displayed, there is no reason to expect that
these measures should be strongly correlated: spouses are reporting on their own experiences.
Perceptions of disagreements, on the other hand, are based on spouses’ individual reports of the
same experience. However, the correlation between husbands and wives’ perceptions of
disagreements is low, at r=0.23. Not surprisingly, the correlations of reports of criticisms and
abuse are even lower, at r=0.15 and r=0.04, respectively, with the correlation of reports of abuse
being insignificant at p<.05. We might also expect the different types of discord to be strongly
correlated. While consistently significant and positive, these correlations are not exceptionally
high. The highest correlation exists between disagreements and criticisms, at just under r=0.50
within spouses.
7 Analyses were also performed on a sample that excluded spouses that were not currently living together in 1996. The influence of discord in these analyses are similar to those discussed below.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 15
Table 2: Pearson’s Correlation Coefficients Across Spouses’ Reports of Different Types of Discord
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Disagreements 1. Wives’ perception of frequency 1.00 0.23*** 0.48*** 0.15*** 0.31*** 0.09* 2. Husbands’ perception of frequency 1.00 0.18*** 0.49*** 0.17*** 0.10* Criticisms 3. Wife criticized by husband 1.00 0.15*** 0.31*** 0.04 4. Husband criticized by wife 1.00 0.10* 0.13*** Abuse 5. Wife ever hit by husband 1.00 0.04 6. Husband ever hit by wife 1.00
*p<.05 **p<.01 ***p<.001
ANALYTIC METHOD
I use discrete-time multi-level event history analysis and logistic regression to model the
risk of marital dissolution, with person-months of exposure as the unit of analysis (Peterson
1993). The analysis is based on monthly measurement indicating whether the respondent
experienced marital dissolution. I use the following logistic regression equation:
Where p is the probability of marital dissolution, )1( p
p−
is the odds of marital dissolution,
a is a constant term, β is the effect of independent variables within neighborhoods (n), and X is
the value of these independent variables. Individuals (i) who are exposed to the risk of marital
dissolution are defined as females who are married to their first husband. I discuss the results as
odds ratios, which is the anti-log of the coefficient. These odds ratios can be interpreted as the
amount by which the odds are multiplied for each unit change in the respective independent
variable. If the odds ratio is greater than 1, the effect is positive and if the odds ratio is less than
1, the effect is negative. I employ one-tailed tests of significance in these analyses, with the
exception of the measures of education and physical abuse, which are the only measures for
which expectations are not necessarily unidirectional.
( )( )∑+=
− inin XBa
pp
1ln
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 16
RESULTS
Couple and Individual Experiences
Table 3 presents results from the analysis investigating the common predictors of divorce across contexts, and the unique factors expected to exert important influences in this context. Although the rate of marital dissolution is low among this sample, the influences of the independent measures on marital dissolution are large and significant. In fact, many of the same influences on divorce in Western contexts are also relevant in this rural Nepalese context. For example, wives’ educational attainment decreases marital dissolution, similar to some research in the US (Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan 2003; Martin and Bumpass 1989), and women’s work experience has the expected influence of increasing dissolution (Ruggles 1997; South 2001). In this setting, wives with greater educational attainment may have less tolerance for dissolution (Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan 2003). Wives who have experience with working for pay, on the other hand, may perceive greater access to financial independence and less need to remain married (Oppenheimer 1994).
Furthermore, couples with more children are less likely to dissolve, just as in the US (Waite, Haggstrom and Kanouse 1985). In this Nepalese setting, too, children raise the cost of divorce. In fact, people’s attitudes in both settings are especially negative toward divorce when children are involved (Waite and Lillard 1991; Thornton and Young-Demarco 2001). For example, one Nepali woman stated that: “The condition of the children would be very bad. It would be very good if they could live with their parents. When their parents get divorced the children miss one of their parents: either their mother or their father. They lose 50% love and care of their parents.” Additionally, there is evidence that length of marriage—a strong predictor of divorce in Western contexts (Becker, Landes, and Michael 1977; Morgan and Rindfuss 1985; South 2001)—depresses dissolution in this setting: when excluding the effect of fertility from the model (not shown), couples of longer marital duration are revealed to have lower odds of dissolution. There are also a few additional factors, beyond the common influences in Western contexts, that are revealed to influence dissolution (Table 3). Characteristics of the marital home have a strong influence in this context, with both farmland ownership and distance from wives’ natal home decreasing couples’ odds of dissolution, as expected. Wives living in households with farmland are less likely to have worked in on the farmland of others’ for pay and have less incentive to dissolve their marriage. Additionally, wives who do desire to dissolve their marriage may reap greater social support from friends and family if they live closer to their natal home.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 17
Yet, although upper caste Hindus were expected to be the least likely to dissolve their marriages, relative to other ethnic groups, this is not the case. Instead, couples in which the wife identifies as Terai Indigenous ethnicity are significantly less likely to dissolve relative to couples in which the wife identifies as upper caste Hindu. However, age cohort operates as expected, with couples in which wives belong to the younger cohort being much more likely to experience marital dissolution relative to couples in which wives belong to the older cohort. Younger women have had more exposure to Western perspectives about divorce, making them more aware and accepting of the option of marital dissolution.
Table 3: Hazard Estimates of Marital Dissolution: Odds Ratios from Logistic Regression
These results are based on 162 months of data. Multi-level models, by neighborhood. Brahmin/Chettri and Newar are reference categories for caste. T-ratios are shown in parentheses. † indicates two-tailed test, otherwise one-tailed tests are used. *p<.05 **p<.01 ***p<.001
Nonfamily Experiences
Wife’s educational Attainment † 0.88*** (-3.40)
Wife ever worked for wages 1.86* (2.18)
Marriage Characteristics
Wife’s age at marriage 0.92* (-1.99)
Wife’s level of spouse choice 1.14* (1.79)
Husband’s level of spouse choice 1.01 (0.08)
Length of marriage (months) 1.00 (-0.09)
Coresidence 0.16*** (-8.41)
Fertility Experiences
Number of children born 0.52*** (-5.48)
Characteristics of Marital Home
Household owns farmland (khet or bari) 0.56* (-1.83)
Distance from wife’s natal home 0.61*** (-3.21)
Wife’s Demographics
Dalit (low caste) 0.75 (-0.64)
Hill Indigenous 0.77 (-0.78)
Terai Indigenous 0.11*** (-3.72)
Cohort ages 14-23 in 1996 1.33 (0.77)
N (person-months) 99126 N (persons experiencing marital dissolution) 35
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 18
Marital Discord
Now we turn to marital discord and the investigation of whether spouses’ reports of
marital discord have an influence on marital dissolution. I have uncovered important influences
on marital dissolution in Table 3, and I now investigate whether marital discord, as reported by
both spouses, has an influence independent of those important factors. Table 4 displays the
results from logistic regression analyzing the influence of disagreements on the odds of marital
dissolution. Model 1 reveals that wives’ perceptions of the frequency of disagreements in their
marriage are strongly associated with marital dissolution. For each unit increase in wives’
perceived frequency, the odds that the marriage will dissolve increases by 73%. Model 2 reveals
a similar influence of husbands’ perceived frequency of disagreements: every unit increase in
perceived frequency increases the odds of marital dissolution by 60%. Moreover, as revealed in
Model 3, both wives’ and husbands’ perceptions maintain important independent influences. Net
of their husbands’ perceptions, wives’ perceptions of disagreements increases the odds of marital
dissolution by 59%, while husbands’ perceptions increase the odds by 49%, net of their wives’
perceptions. So, each spouses’ perceptions of disagreements in their marriage has an influence,
in the expected direction, on their likelihood of dissolution. Furthermore, the influences of each
spouses’ perceptions maintain strong influences independent of one another.
Table 5 displays results of wives’ and husbands’ reports of having been criticized or hit
by their spouse. As shown in Model 1, couples in which wives report being more frequently
criticized by their husbands are 73% more likely to dissolve for every unit increase in frequency.
However, husbands’ reports of being criticized do not have a significant influence on couples’
odds of dissolution, as indicated in Model 2. These findings hold in Model 3, where both
spouses’ reports are accounted for: wives’ reports of being criticized by husbands maintain a
strong influence in increasing dissolution, net of husbands’ reports of being criticized. Whereas
both spouses’ perceptions of disagreements have important influences on dissolution, husbands’
reports of being criticized by their wife do not have an independent influence on dissolution.
Couples in which wives report more frequent criticisms from their husbands, however, are
significantly more likely to dissolve.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 19
Table 4: Hazard Estimates of Marital Dissolution: Odds Ratios from Logistic Regression of Spouses’ Perceptions of Disagreements
These results are based on 162 months of data. Multi-level models, by neighborhood. Brahmin/Chettri and Newar are reference categories for caste. T-ratios are shown in parentheses. † indicates two-tailed test, otherwise one-tailed tests are used. *p<.05 **p<.01 ***p<.001
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Disagreements
Wives’ perception of frequency 1.73*** (3.91)
1.59*** (3.14)
Husbands’ perception of frequency 1.60*** (3.22)
1.49** (2.87)
Nonfamily Experiences
Wife’s educational Attainment † 0.88*** (-3.21)
0.89*** (-2.78)
0.90** (-2.63)
Wife ever worked for wages 1.62* (1.69)
1.59 (1.52)
1.55 (1.51)
Marriage Characteristics
Wife’s age at marriage 1.15* (1.98)
0.91* (-0.91)
0.91* (-2.12)
Wife’s level of spouse choice 1.15* (1.98)
1.16* (1.89)
1.17* (2.17)
Husband’s level of spouse choice 1.00 (-0.05)
1.03 (0.33)
1.00 (0.01)
Length of marriage (months) 1.00 (-0.12)
1.00 (0.08)
1.00 (0.00)
Coresidence 0.15*** (-8.83)
0.16*** (-7.74)
0.15*** (-8.47)
Fertility Experiences
Number of children born 0.53*** (-5.33)
0.51*** (-5.14)
0.52*** (-5.25)
Characteristics of Marital Home
Household owns farmland (khet or bari) 0.64 (-1.39)
0.51* (2.00)
0.59 (-1.58)
Distance from wife’s natal home 0.63** (-3.04)
0.63** (-2.83)
0.63** (-2.95)
Wife’s Demographics
Dalit (low caste) 0.71 (-0.78)
0.88 (-0.28)
0.80 (-0.50)
Hill Indigenous 0.76 (-0.82)
0.78 (-0.67)
0.77 (-0.76)
Terai Indigenous 0.09*** (-4.09)
0.12*** (-3.32)
0.09*** (-3.78)
Cohort ages 14-23 in 1996 1.40 (0.93)
1.10 (0.23)
1.24 (0.56)
N (person-months) 99126 99126 99126 N (persons experiencing marital dissolution) 35 35 35
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 20
Table 5: Hazard Estimates of Marital Dissolution: Odds Ratios from Logistic Regression of Spouses’ Reports of Being Criticized or Abused
These results are based on 162 months of data. Multi-level models, by neighborhood. Brahmin/Chettri and Newar are reference categories for caste. T-ratios are shown in parentheses. † indicates two-tailed test, otherwise one-tailed tests are used. *p<.05 **p<.01 ***p<.001
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Criticisms
Wife criticized by husband 1.73*** (3.70)
1.69*** (3.43)
Husband criticized by wife 1.25 (1.54)
1.11 (0.07)
Abuse
Wife ever hit by husband † 2.99*** (3.58)
2.97*** (3.37)
Husband ever hit by wife † 2.32 (1.63)
2.31 (1.62)
Nonfamily Experiences
Wife’s educational Attainment † 0.88*** (-3.30)
0.88*** (-3.30)
0.88*** (-3.25)
0.91** (-2,39)
0.88*** (-3.16)
0.91* (-2.25)
Wife ever worked for wages 1.69* (1.81)
1.73* (1.93)
1.64* (1.69)
1.92* (1.95)
1.81* (2.01)
1.88* (2.12)
Marriage Characteristics
Wife’s age at marriage 0.91* (-2.13)
0.92* (-1.84)
0.91* (-2.05)
0.92* (1.95)
0.92* (-1.79)
0.92* (-1.75)
Wife’s level of spouse choice 1.13* (1.71)
1.15* (1.93)
1.14* (1.74)
1.15* (2.00)
1.09 (1.04)
1.10 (1.23)
Husband’s level of spouse choice 1.02 (0.28)
0.99 (-0.20)
1.01 (0.16)
1.01 (0.20)
1.02 (0.27)
1.03 (0.37)
Length of marriage (months) 1.00 (-0.05)
1.00 (-0.10)
1.00 (-0.06)
1.00 (-0.11)
1.00 (-0.18)
1.00 (-0.20)
Coresidence 0.16*** (-8.37)
0.16*** (-8.46)
0.16*** (-8.34)
0.15*** (-8.69)
0.16*** (-7.87)
0.15*** (-8.14)
Fertility Experiences
Number of children born 0.52*** (-5.26)
0.52*** (-5.51)
0.52*** (-5.24)
0.52*** (-5.37)
0.52*** (-5.04)
0.53*** (-4.96)
Characteristics of Marital Home
Household owns farmland (khet or bari) 0.61 (-1.50)
0.56* (-1.79)
0.60 (-1.51)
0.59 (-1.61)
0.53* (-1.93)
0.55* (-1.74)
Distance from wife’s natal home 0.68** (-2.35)
0.62*** (-3.10)
0.68** (-2.35)
0.63** (-2.91)
0.62** (-2.94)
0.64** (-2.68)
Wife’s Demographics
Dalit (low caste) 0.84 (-0.38)
0.83 (-0.43)
0.88 (-0.28)
0.66 (-0.94)
0.81 (-0.46)
0.70 (-0.77)
Hill Indigenous 0.85 (-0.47)
0.83 (-0.56)
0.88 (-0.36)
0.82 (-0.57)
0.89 (-0.33)
0.95 (-0.14)
Terai Indigenous 0.09*** (-3.94)
0.11*** (-3.60)
0.10*** (-3.84)
0.13*** (-3.35)
0.12*** (-3.39)
0.15** (-3.07)
Cohort ages 14-23 in 1996 1.25 (0.59)
1.31 (0.71)
1.24 (0.56)
1.16 (0.39)
1.30 (0.67)
1.15 (0.34)
N (person-months) 99126 99126 99126 99126 99126 99126 N (persons experiencing marital dissolution) 35 35 35 35 35 35
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 21
Table 5 reveals similar results for physical abuse: wives’ reports of ever having been hit have a very strong influence on marital dissolution, although husbands’ reports of the same do not have a significant influence (Models 4 and 5). Holding husbands’ reports constant, wives’ reports maintain this very strong influence: couples in which wives’ have ever been hit are nearly three times more likely to experience marital dissolution. Just as is the case with criticisms, physical abuse as reported by wives, but not their husbands, significantly increases couples’ of dissolution.8
CONCLUSION
This paper has investigated the factors influencing marital dissolution in the rural, agrarian setting of southern Nepal, where marital dissolution is still a rare phenomenon. Particularly, I focus on marital discord as a factor influencing dissolution. I find that marital discord across three types increases couples’ likelihood of marital dissolution, and this influence is independent of the influences of other relevant factors. Both husbands’ and wives’ reports of discord have important influences on couples’ odds of dissolving. In this setting, where divorce is rare, the factors that influence marital dissolution in contexts where divorce has long been common are also important. For example, education, wives’ work experience, and number of children operate similarly in this context as they do in Western contexts (Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan 2003; Martin and Bumpass 1989; Morgan, Lye and Condran 1988; Ruggles 1997; South 2001; Waite and Lillard 1991). This paper has also revealed some additional, setting-specific influences on marital dissolution: farmland ownership of the marital home, distance of the marital home from wives’ natal home, and ethnicity. Upper caste Hindus have historically practiced relatively stricter marital customs, leading to the expectation that this high value placed on marriage would put couples of this ethnic group at a relatively lower odds of dissolution. However, each ethnic group was empirically revealed to have a lower likelihood of marital dissolution than upper caste Hindus. It may be that the significant political changes that took place in Nepal in the 1990s (Williams et al. Forthcoming), in addition to the rapid social changes (Ghimire et al. 2006; Axinn and Yabiku 2001), have led these upper caste groups to loosen their strict customs. This interesting and unexpected finding requires further investigation.
8 In a model estimating the influence of both spouses’ reports of verbal discord, not shown here, husbands’ perceptions of disagreements and wives’ reports of criticisms maintain significant influences. When adding spouses’ reports of abuse to the model, only husbands’ reports of disagreements maintain a significant influence across types of discord.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 22
Even while accounting for these strong influences on marital dissolution, spouses’ reports
of marital discord have independent influences on marital dissolution. The finding that spouses’
perceptions have distinct influences on a variety of outcomes, including divorce, is not new
(Allendorf 2007; Amato and Rogers 1997; Glass and Fujimoto 1994; Gottman 1994; Wilkie,
Ferree, and Ratcliff 1998). However, this investigation reveals that Nepalese wives’ perceptions
of discord may in fact have greater influence than US wives’ perceptions of discord. While
husbands’ perceptions of disagreements seem to be the driver of marital dissolution in the US
(Sanchez and Gager 2000), both wives’ and husbands’ perceptions of disagreements have a
powerful influence on dissolution in this South Asia context.
In fact, Nepalese wives’ reports across three types of discord have an important influence
that is independent of their own husbands’ reports. Due to the limited liberties available to
women—as compared to men—it is especially encouraging to find that the significance of
wives’ reports is not eliminated when accounting for their husbands’ reports. Women in discord-
ridden marriages are in particularly precarious situations because they can face financial hardship
in dissolving their marriage (Holden and Smock 1991; Smock et al.1999), but remaining married
can have its own negative consequences for their emotional and, sometimes, physical well-being
(Naved et al. 2006; Finchman, Beach, Gordon and Osborne 1997). Women are more likely than
men to be victims of physical abuse, both in this sample and more globally (Johnson and Ferraro
2000), so the obstacles to marital dissolution for wives (compared to husbands) can be especially
significant. Given the difficulty for women in becoming self-sufficient and independent, it was
expected that many women would endure a discord-ridden marriage (Yount and Li 2009).
However, the findings in this paper reveal that women in these precarious situations are in fact
more likely to experience marital dissolution than women who report lower levels of discord in
their marriage. Women may be developing more routes to independence via the rapidly changing
legal and social context (Holden 2008; Gilbert 1992), allowing them more ability to escape
discord-ridden marriages.
Husbands’ reports of discord also exert a significant influence in the indicator of
disagreements. This strong influence of husbands’ perceptions is not unlike findings from the US
(Sanchez and Gager 2000). As expected, husbands appear to have a great deal of influence on
dissolving discord-ridden marriages, though not across as many types of discord as wives.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 23
While this paper has revealed important factors influencing marital discord in rural
Nepal, there are also some limitations to this investigation. First, the data do not reveal which
spouse initiated the marital dissolutions that we observe. For example, it may be the case that a
wife reports that she is frequently criticized, but her husband may ultimately choose to end the
marriage as a result of frustrations related to his criticisms of his wife. Second, there are many
types of discord that can be measured, beyond the three types provided in the CVFS data
(DeMaris 2000; Gottman 1979; Porter and O’Leary 1980). Yet, these three types have important
influences on marriage in this context, suggesting that it would be valuable for future surveys in
South Asian contexts to incorporate these and other types. Despite these limitations, this paper
contributes significant new findings regarding divorce in a non-Western context.
South Asian families are likely to face growing instances of marital dissolution. The rapid
social changes that much of South Asia has been undergoing (Ghimire et al. 2006; Axinn and
Yabiku 2001; Hirschman and Teerawichitchainan 2003; Thornton and Lin 1994) provide women
with tools to build a career, and with exposure to the idea that they do not have to be subordinate
to men. The obstacles to dissolution that women have faced in the past, and still face in the
present, may be breaking down. In fact, empirical evidence demonstrates that people change
their behavior as the social setting undergoes changes (Axinn and Barber 2001; Axinn and
Yabiku 2001; Ghimire et al. 2006; Williams 2009). So, there is reason to expect more couples to
choose to dissolve their marriages, and women may increasingly make this decision, themselves.
Marital Discord and Subsequent Divorce 24
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