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Marine15
What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared
Bernard Salt
3 May 2015
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Disclaimer
These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a generalnature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should acton such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particularsituation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has notsought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No relianceshould be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed inwriting by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral orwritten form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in thispresentation have been formed on the above basis.
Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies anduncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG orany other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to changewithout notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions.
Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way fromreliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party’s sole responsibility. Thepresentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendeesand is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG’s prior written consent. KPMGaccepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in thispresentation.
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
How much debt is too much debt?
Source: Based on IMF Fiscal Monitor October 2014 Statistical Table 8 data & IMF World Economic Outlook Database October 2014 data; KPMG Demographics
Net Debt per cent GDP 2015 for countries over US$200 billion GDP * excl those not reporting Net Debt eg China & Russia
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
%
Norway (+215%)
Australia (-17%) Greece(-166%)
New Zealand (-27%)
US(-81%)
• 37 countries• GDP at least US$200bn• No data for China & Russia
UK(-85%)
Sydney
Melbourne
Hobart
Adelaide
Perth
Darwin
Brisbane
Canberra
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Australians have always been driven by lifestyle
Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014
WINNERS
LOSERS
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
23 years of continuous economic prosperity shapes a nation and its people … creates a culture of aspirational consumerism
Source: ABS Catalogue 5206.0 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product; KPMG Demographics
Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from September 1959
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Sep-
1959
Mar
-196
0Se
p-19
60M
ar-1
961
Sep-
1961
Mar
-196
2Se
p-19
62M
ar-1
963
Sep-
1963
Mar
-196
4Se
p-19
64M
ar-1
965
Sep-
1965
Mar
-196
6Se
p-19
66M
ar-1
967
Sep-
1967
Mar
-196
8Se
p-19
68M
ar-1
969
Sep-
1969
Mar
-197
0Se
p-19
70M
ar-1
971
Sep-
1971
Mar
-197
2Se
p-19
72M
ar-1
973
Sep-
1973
Mar
-197
4Se
p-19
74M
ar-1
975
Sep-
1975
Mar
-197
6Se
p-19
76M
ar-1
977
Sep-
1977
Mar
-197
8Se
p-19
78M
ar-1
979
Sep-
1979
Mar
-198
0Se
p-19
80M
ar-1
981
Sep-
1981
Mar
-198
2Se
p-19
82M
ar-1
983
Sep-
1983
Mar
-198
4Se
p-19
84M
ar-1
985
Sep-
1985
Mar
-198
6Se
p-19
86M
ar-1
987
Sep-
1987
Mar
-198
8Se
p-19
88M
ar-1
989
Sep-
1989
Mar
-199
0Se
p-19
90M
ar-1
991
Sep-
1991
Mar
-199
2Se
p-19
92M
ar-1
993
Sep-
1993
Mar
-199
4Se
p-19
94M
ar-1
995
Sep-
1995
Mar
-199
6Se
p-19
96M
ar-1
997
Sep-
1997
Mar
-199
8Se
p-19
98M
ar-1
999
Sep-
1999
Mar
-200
0Se
p-20
00M
ar-2
001
Sep-
2001
Mar
-200
2Se
p-20
02M
ar-2
003
Sep-
2003
Mar
-200
4Se
p-20
04M
ar-2
005
Sep-
2005
Mar
-200
6Se
p-20
06M
ar-2
007
Sep-
2007
Mar
-200
8Se
p-20
08M
ar-2
009
Sep-
2009
Mar
-201
0Se
p-20
10M
ar-2
011
Sep-
2011
Mar
-201
2Se
p-20
12M
ar-2
013
Sep-
2013
Mar
-201
4Se
p-20
14
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
MenziesWhitlam
Fraser
Hawke
GST GFC
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australia is now an Anglo-Mediterranean-Asian-Indian fusion culture
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
United Kingdom1.0 million1
New Zealand617,0002
China447,0003
India397,0004
5 Philippines225,000
Vietnam223,0006
Italy202,0007
South Africa176,0008
Malaysia154,0009
Germany129,00010
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
New acronyms for our newest tribes
PUMCINS …→ Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs
…NETTELs ←Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life
KIPPERS …→ Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings
…LOMBARDS←Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead
Source: KPMG Demographics
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Population hotspots cluster on the coast … we should be a boating nation!
19541 Sydney 1,8632 Melbourne 1,5243 Brisbane 5024 Adelaide 4845 Perth 3496 Newcastle 1787 Hobart 958 Wollongong 919 Geelong 72
10 Launceston 4911 Ballarat 4812 Toowoomba 4313 Rockhampton 4114 Townsville 4015 Ipswich 3916 Bendigo 3717 Broken Hill 3118 Canberra 2819 Blue Mountains 2320 Kalgoorlie 23
20141 Sydney 4,8412 Melbourne 4,4403 Brisbane 2,2754 Perth 2,0215 Adelaide 1,3056 Gold Coast - Tweed 6147 Newcastle - Maitland 4318 Canberra - Queanbeyan 4239 Sunshine Coast 297
10 Wollongong 28911 Greater Hobart 21912 Geelong 18413 Townsville 17914 Cairns 14715 Greater Darwin 14016 Toowoomba 11417 Ballarat 9918 Bendigo 9219 Albury - Wodonga 8820 Launceston 86
20501 Sydney 7,6882 Melbourne 7,6703 Perth 4,6334 Brisbane 4,1885 Adelaide 1,7976 Gold Coast - Tweed 1,2257 Canberra - Queanbeyan 7228 Newcastle - Maitland 5889 Sunshine Coast 503
10 Wollongong 38411 Townsville 34012 Geelong 30113 Greater Hobart 26514 Cairns 22515 Greater Darwin 20916 Toowoomba 19717 Mackay 19318 Ballarat 18119 Bendigo 16120 Rockhampton 142
Population figures expressed in ‘000s
Source: KPMG; based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; relevant State Government planning authorities
2014-502,8473,2302,3582,16749261129116520695
1211178678698394897356
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Even small fast-growing towns tend to be coastal
Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2014 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in AustraliaSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Elle
nbro
okM
elto
nK
arra
tha
Gla
dsto
ne -
Tann
um S
ands
Bus
selto
nO
cean
Gro
ve -
Poin
t Lon
sdal
eB
unbu
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acch
us M
arsh
Torq
uay
War
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l - D
roui
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- Clif
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Sprin
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bour
neG
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eral
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ighf
ield
sEm
eral
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Geo
rges
Bas
in -
Sanc
tuar
y Po
int
Sydn
eySu
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ne C
oast
Alb
any
Bris
bane
Dar
win
Bal
lara
tC
essn
ock
Yepp
oon
Gol
d C
oast
- Tw
eed
Hea
dsTo
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Ben
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Port
Mac
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ieD
ubbo
Bat
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edon
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Mac
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Her
vey
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Bow
ral -
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agon
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erry
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ctor
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bor -
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agga
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wel
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- M
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tral
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Bal
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Brid
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Har
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War
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Mar
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ough
Fors
ter -
Tun
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- M
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Cam
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ount
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ston
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roke
n H
illW
anga
ratta
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algo
n - M
orw
ell
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idal
eA
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urni
e - W
ynya
rdTa
ree
Mou
nt Is
aPo
rt A
ugus
taLi
smor
eC
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Moe
- N
ewbo
roug
hG
rafto
nK
algo
orlie
- B
ould
er
PerthDarwin
Brisbane
Canberra
Melbourne
SydneyAdelaide
Hobart
1. Ellenbrook2. Melton3. Karratha4. Gladstone-Tannum Sands 5. Busselton
6. Ocean Grove-Pt Lonsdale7. Bunbury8. Bacchus Marsh9. Torquay10. Warragul-Drouin
100. Kalgoorlie-Boulder99. Grafton98. Moe-Newborough97. Colac96. Lismore
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Water-based leisure and boating has relevance to all age groups
2004-2014: 3.6 million (19.9m to 23.5m)
-50,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
2014-2024: 4.2 million (23.5m to 27.7m)
Kids & teenagers
• Surfing• Canoeing/kayaking
Families
• Houseboats• Fishing
Mature adults
Prestige boats
Active retirees
Cruises
20s
• Socialising• Jet skis
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Water-based leisure activities are part of the Australian lifestyle
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Sports and physical activities participated in by Australians by sex in 2013 - 2014 Population (‘000)
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Squash / RacquetballHockey (indoor and outdoor)
Canoeing / Kayaking / Dragon boat…Horse riding / Equestrian activities / Polo
FishingLawn bowlsSurf sports
PilatesIndoor soccer
Outdoor cricketMartial arts
Australian Rules footballDancing / Ballet
Bush walkingYoga
Basketball (indoor & outdoor)Netball (Indoor and outdoor)
Outdoor soccerTennis (indoor and outdoor)
GolfCycling / BMXing
Swimming / DivingJogging / Running
Fitness / GymWalking for exercise
Males Females
Water
Water
Surf
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australians are dividing the lifecycle into ‘thirds’
0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Child Adult Old1934
Child Teen OldAdult1974 71
Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetired2014
Adult82
63
Change in life expectancy over 80 years in AustraliaSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
From Boomers to Xers and Ys … and finally to Zeds
Source: KPMG Demographics
Forgotten generationWrong place … wrong timeNo workplace guiltAngsty about Ys
XGENERATION
■ Born 1965 – 1982■ Today 32 – 49
HierarchicalIndulged their kidsDepression era parentsSandwich generation
BABYBOOMERS
■ Born 1946 – 1964■ Today 50 – 68
YGENERATION
Special … bubble-wrapChaotic connectionEntrepreneurialsDisappointed generation?
■ Born 1983 – 2000■ Today 14 – 31
Parents results-orientedYouth in straitened timesHighly educated, globalPragmatists … fixers
ZGENERATION
■ Born 2001 – 2019■ Today 0 – 13
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
There has been a shift in the Australian economy towards knowledge workers
Hea
lthca
re&
Soc
ial A
ssis
t.
Prof
essi
onal
/Sc
ient
ific/
Tech
.
Publ
ic A
dmin
&
Saf
ety
Acc
om &
Foo
d
Adm
in &
Sup
port
Min
ing
Educ
atio
n &
Trai
ning
Art
s &
Rec
reat
ion
Fina
ncia
l &In
sura
nce
Oth
er S
ervi
ces
Ret
ail T
rade
Who
lesa
le T
rade
Ren
tal/h
iring
&R
eal E
stat
e
Info
Med
ia &
Te
leco
ms
Man
ufac
turin
g
6 years February 2009 – up 1.4m (9.4m – 10.8m)
Elec
tric
ity/G
as/
Wat
er &
Was
te
Agr
icul
ture
/For
estr
y &
Fis
hing
Tran
spor
t/Pos
tal/
War
ehou
se
Healthcare & Social Assistance
Professionals & Sciences
EducationAccommodation
& Food
6 years February 2015 – up 1.0m (10.8m – 11.8m)
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Con
stru
ctio
n
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
The Australian boat building and allied services industries are changing
Industry 2011 %Port and Water Transport Terminal Operations 6,574 46% Includes ports & freight, water passenger terminal, ship
mooring, wharf operation
Scenic and Sightseeing Transport 5,469 21% Includes charter fishing boat operation, hovercraft operation, airboat operation
Shipbuilding and Repair Services 6,260 14% Ship building
Water Passenger Transport 1,623 4% Boat charter, lease or rental, ferry operation (boat & passenger), water taxi
Marine Equipment Retailing 2,580 -15% Boat retailing, boat trailers, marine accessories, outboard motors, yachts, nautical/sailing accessories
Boatbuilding and Repair Services 6,044 -28% Boat building (canoes, dinghies, jet boats, motorboats, sailboats, yachts) & repairs
Occupation 2011 %
Boat Builder and Repairer 2,691 -33%
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Source: KPMG Demographics
Where are the opportunities in 2015
Australia is a first-world nation that has enjoyed an era of unparalleled prosperity ...that has converted into an interest in leisure boating1
The Baby Boomers have passed through ‘peak boating’ over the last 20 years… the challenge will be to engage their Gen Y children2
Most of the Australian population is located near water and has a predisposition towater-based leisure … boating should come naturally to this community3
Boat building is shedding jobs in Australia and the scope for new marinas islimited … demand for trailer boats and ramps must increase as must the boatimporting business
4
The challenge is to remain connected with a boating or water-based offer to allage groups and especially the 20-Something Gen Ys!5
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Introducing the Gold Coast bachelor hot spot
Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census
“Golf Club of Love”
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Reedy Creek2.41:1
Surfers Paradise1.85:1
Burleigh Golf Club
© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMGInternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
@bernardsalt
Bernard Salt Demographer
linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt
+61 3 9288 5047
www.bernardsalt.com.au
@bernardsalt
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