Marine Reserves Neg

8/9/2019 Marine Reserves Neg

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Case



Solvency Core



1NC Solvency FrontlineStatus quo solves hard and fast – 1.8 billion dollars in funding,

recent summit doubled reserves, the US isnt !ey, and "bama

doesnt need Congress for anything – this #ost$dates all

relevant solvency evidence%ogan &$1' [Ben, Environmental News Network, ARKive.org, June 19, 2014,

!ver "1 Billion #le$ge$ to #ro%e&t 'arine (a)itats,*+tt-)log.arkive.org20140/int+enews1)illionle$ge$torote&tmarine+a)itats 3

"ver (1.8 billion has been #ledged )5 various arties at t+e 6!ur !&ean7 2014summit , an$ roosals +ave )een ma$e to $ou)le t+e amount o8 rote&te$ marine+a)itats aroun$ t+e worl$. 6!ur !&ean7 2014 )roug+t toget+er lea$ers 8rom)usiness, government an$ a&a$emi& institutions, an$ N!s 8rom over 0 &ountriesto $is&uss +ow e&onomi& $eveloment an$ o&ean &onservation &an )e re&on&ile$.

:+e o&eans are e;tremel5 imortant 8or +umans, generating more t+an <0 er&ent o8 t+e o;5gen we )reat+e,

a)sor)ing e;&ess &ar)on $io;i$e, an$ rovi$ing a sour&e o8 8oo$ an$ in&ome 8or millions o8 eole worl$wi$e. )he

summit concentrated on several !ey themes in ocean conservationincluding sustainable *shing, marine #ollution, and ocean acidi*cation .#er+as one o8 t+e most signi=&ant announ&ements at !ur !&ean was #resi$ent!)ama7s intention to e;an$ an$ &reate new marine reserves in t+e #a&i=& !&ean,w+ile Kiri)ati announ&e$ it will e;an$ its alrea$5 vast #+oeni; >slan$s #rote&te$Area . >8 imlemente$, these #ro#osals +ill more than double the total area of

legally #rotected oceans. #resi$ent "bama said in a vi$eo to arti&iants at !ur !&ean,

-m going to use my authority to #rotect some of our nations most

#recious marine landsca#es. 'an5 o8 t+e worl$7s =s+ sto&ks are )eing =s+e$ at unsustaina)le

levels, an$ it is t+oug+t t+at aroun$ ?0 er&ent o8 t+e worl$7s =s+eries are overe;loite$. :+e !ur !&eansummit aime$ to e;amine t+e stes =s+er5 management aut+orities nee$ to take tore$u&e, an$ ultimatel5 en$, over=s+ing an$ to mitigate a$verse ima&ts on t+e)roa$er marine environment. >nitiatives roose$ at t+e summit aim to end all

over*shing on marine *sh stoc!s by /0/0, t+roug+ a series o8 measuresin&lu$ing in&rease$ transaren&5 in allo&ating =s+ing rig+ts, toug+er en8or&ement o8 legislation an$ enalties 8or illegal =s+eries, elimination o8 e;&ess &aa&it5 in =s+ing@eets an$ minimising )5&at&+. :o t+is en$, resident "bama has announced acom#rehensive ne+ national #rogramme on seafood traceability and

o#enness w+i&+ will allow &ustomers in t+e nite$ tates to ensure t+at t+eirsea8oo$ +as )een +arveste$ legall5 an$ sustaina)l5 . A$$itionall5, t+e nite$ tateslaun&+e$ t+e 6mCis+7 artners+i, w+i&+ will rovi$e mo)ile $evi&es to smalls&ale=s+eries in $eveloing nations wit+ as $esigne$ to a&&ess market an$ weat+erin8ormation an$ ensure a&&urate an$ eas5 &at&+ reorting. Nor+ay also #ledged

more than (120 million to #romote *shery management and develo#menta)roa$, in&lu$ing a new resear&+ vessel to train =s+eries e;erts an$ managersaroun$ t+e worl$. Signi*cant advances have been made in addressing

marine #ollution from land$ and ocean$based sources, )5 in$ivi$uals an$lo&al &ommunities at t+e regional an$ glo)al s&ale, alt+oug+ mu&+ more nee$s to )e $one. !ur!&ean 2014 +as 8a&ilitate$ t+e $eveloment o8 initiatives to re$u&e total nutrient

http://blog.arkive.org/2014/06/in-the-news-1-8-billion-pledged-to-protect-marine-habitats/






ollution in t+e o&ean )5 20 er&ent an$ to signi=&antl5 re$u&e t+e inut o8 $e)risinto t+e marine environment )5 202<. :o +el a&+ieve t+is, Norwa5 will allo&ate u to "1million 8or a stu$5 on measures to &om)at marine lasti& waste an$ mi&rolasti&s .A$$itionall5, t+e nite$ tates announ&e$ t+e :ras+ Cree 3aters rogramme, w+i&+aims to sto waste an$ $e)ris 8rom entering t+e o&ean t+oug+ sustaina)le ro$u&t

$esign, in&rease$ material re&over5 an$ re&5&ling, an$ a new nationwi$e wasterevention et+i&. ue to o&ean a&i$i=&ation, our o&eans are aro;imatel5 ?0 er&ent more a&i$i& t+an

)e8ore t+e in$ustrial revolution, an$ t+e o&ean7s &+emistr5 is &urrentl5 &+anging 10 times 8aster t+an at an5 ot+ertime in t+e ast <0 million 5ears. 'an5 organisms will not )e a)le to a$at to t+e &+anges wit+in t+eir +a)itat,

w+i&+ will negativel5 ima&t )ot+ )io$iversit5 an$ t+e &ru&ial servi&es t+at t+e o&eans rovi$e us. >nitiatives torevent 8urt+er in&reases in o&ean a&i$i=&ation were $eveloe$ at t+e !ur !&eanssummit, w+i&+ aim to re$u&e &ar)on emissions an$ monitor o&ean a&i$i=&ation on aglo)al s&ale. Nor+ay announced that it +ill allocate over (1 billion to &limate&+ange mitigation an$ a$atation assistan&e in 201<. :+e nite$ tates resente$new ro%e&ts to meet t+e &+allenges o8 o&ean a&i$i=&ation an$ marine ollution inA8ri&a, Dentral Ameri&a, an$ t+e Dari))ean , as well as &ontri)uting "/40,000 tosuort t+e !&ean A&i$i=&ation >nternational Door$ination Denter in 'ona&o.

3nforcement isnt !ey – "bama e4ecutive authority solves the

a5 and +ill chec! against future issues

-N &$// [#rivate >slan$ News, News Network, June 22, 2014, A- !)ama

#romises to ou)le t+e 3orl$7s 'arine Reserves,*+tt-www.rivateislan$news.&om2014%un22usao)amaromisesto$ou)let+eworl$smarinereserves 3

#resi$ent Bara&k !)ama +as romise$ to &reate t+e worl$7s largest marinerote&te$ area '#A F in t+e &entre o8 t+e #a&i=& !&ean G +ith or +ithout the hel#

of the 6e#ublicans. #resi$ent !)ama +as t+is week announ&e$ +is intent to

&reate t+e worl$7s largest 'arine #rote&te$ Area '#A F w+i&+ G i8 su&&ess8ul Gwill seet+e sur8a&e area o8 t+e worl$7s marine reserves $ou)le in siHe w+ilstsimultaneously #utting an end to illegal *shing #ractices wit+in t+e mu&+maligne$ region. As reorte$ on :ues$a5 wit+in :+e 3as+ington #ost, t+e rote&te$ area willstret&+ over +uge swat+es o8 t+e &entral #a&i=& region, e;an$ing an e;istingrote&te$ Hone G t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$ 'arine National 'onument G 8rom22<,000 kmI to an in&re$i)le 2 million km I an$ taking in eleven islan$s an$ atollsalong t+e wa5. Announ&ing t+e $e&ision at t+e tate eartment7s !ur !&ean &on8eren&e, resident"bama s#o!e at length not only about his #lans to use his e4ecutive

authority in order to e4#and the e4isting marine #rotected but also about

ne+ strategies aimed to better #olice the area around the aci*c 6emote

-slands for signs of illegal *shing activities . :+e #resi$ent7s environmentala$visor, Jo+n #o$esta, tol$ %ournalists at :+e 3as+ington #ost t+at t+e marine&onservation initiative is lanne$ to &ome into 8or&e towar$s t+e en$ o8 5ear,8ollowing t+e &omletion o8 a u)li& &onsultation erio$ w+i&+ is &urrentl5 s&+e$ule$8or t+e summer o8 2014. :+e welltime$ $e&ision G announ&e$ %ust weeks a8ter t+enite$ Nations Environment #rogram $e&lare$ t+e worl$7s o&eans , islan$s an$ lowl5ing states to )e a matter o8 utmost imortan&e G 8orms a ma%or statement o8intent 8or a government w+i&+ +as so8ar $one ver5 little to a$$ress o&eanrelate$



environmental &on&erns. )he decision to create this ne+ 7 has been+armly received by environmentalists the +orld over. Emil5 3oglom, vi&eresi$ent 8or &onservation an$ oli&5 at t+e !&ean Donservan&5, sai$ in astatement t+at !)ama7s announ&ement s+ows t+at t+e #resi$ent is turning +isattention to +is Blue ega&5,* w+ereas Bet+ owel o8 t+e !&eana &onservation

grou $e&lare$ t+e move to )e a +istori& ste*.

3ven if theyre right about enforcement, its functionally

im#ossible – its a question of available technology, not

funding

US- &918$ >A, 2014 !)ama7s !&ean- 3ill An E;e&utive !r$er ave t+e Ailing

ea,* June 1t+, Availa)le online at +tts-usia.&om20140/o)amaso&eanwillane;e&utiveor$ersavet+eailingsea, A&&esse$ /2/14F

L2,000 miles o8 oen o&ean. :+at7s a lot o8 sa&e to atro l. !ne mig+t sa5 it7simossi)le to eMe&tivel5 en8or&e t+e new restri&tions over su&+ a vast area o8 t+eremote sea . iven t+e range o8 mo$ern auati& ra$ar an$ t+e in@u; o8 satellite imager5, one woul$ assume

en8or&ement s+oul$n7t )e too $iO&ult. (owever, we +ave to take into a&&ount t+e &ase o8 '(?L0.3it+ all o8 our mo$ern te&+nolog5, we &an7t even =n$ a %um)o %et t+at +as )eeneuie$ wit+ $evi&es se&iall5 $esigne$ to )e 8oun$. >8 we &an7t =n$ a wre&ke$lane t+at wants to )e 8oun$, +ow are we going to lo&ate oa&+ers w+o $on7tEvi$en&e oints to t+e 8a&t t+at t+ere aren7t enoug+ resour&es to atrol or rote&t t+ee;isting )oun$aries o8 t+e san&tuar5 . >t is not un&ommon 8or 8oreign vessels to )eillegall5 =s+ing in t+e rote&te$ Hone w+en t+at &ra8t &an &at&+ a +al8 a million$ollars7 wort+ o8 tuna in a 8ew $a5s. :+e5 will $isregar$ t+e laws. atelliteimager5 an$ ra$ar works in t+eor5, )ut t+ese te&+nologies +ave )een in use t+ere8or over two $e&a$es an$ $oes little to sto illegal maritime a&tivit5. Even i8 a ra$aror satellite $oes i&k u a =s+ing vessel several +un$re$ miles awa5, it woul$ )e$a5s )e8ore a atrol s+i inter&ets it. Even wit+ t+e 8astest, +ig+est range+eli&oters &an onl5 @5 a)out ?<0 nauti&al miles )e8ore nee$ing to re8uel . 'ostla&es woul$ )e out o8 range unless we want t+ese air&ra8t to $ro 8rom t+e sk5 en route.

)urn – marine reserves ma!es *sh less intelligent – theyre

easier to catch and are less +eary of #eo#le

3cology :lobal Net+or!, 1/ ;1191<91/, 3asy Catch "ut of the 6eserve,

3cology :lobal Net+or!, htt#=99+++.ecology.com9/01/91191<9marine$reserves$ma!e$*sh$naive9, accessed &9/891>, %:?

Big =s+ t+at +ave grown u in marine reserves $o not seem to know enoug+ to

avoi$ =s+ers arme$ wit+ sear guns waiting outsi$e t+e reserve. :+e latest resear&+)5 an Australian team working in t+e #+iliines into t+e eMe&ts o8 marine reserves +as

8oun$ t+ere is an une;e&te$ win$8all awaiting =s+ers w+o o)e5 t+e rules an$rese&t reserve )oun$aries G in t+e 8orm o8 )ig, inno&ent =s+ wan$ering out o8 t+ereserve . :+ere are lent5 o8 reorts o8 =s+, )ot+ a$ults an$ %uveniles, moving out o8reserves an$ into t+e surroun$ing sea. (aving grown u in an area w+ere t+e5 wererote&te$ 8rom +unting, we won$ere$ +ow naPve t+e5 woul$ )e wit+ regar$ toavoi$ing $anger 8rom +uman s,* sa5s Craser Janu&+owski(artle5 o8 t+e ARD Dentre o8

https://usia.com/2014/06/obamas-ocean-will-an-executive-order-save-the-ailing-sea/


http://www.ecology.com/2012/06/14/australia-announces-worlds-largest-marine-reserve-network/

http://www.coralcoe.org.au/



http://www.ecology.com/2012/06/14/australia-announces-worlds-largest-marine-reserve-network/




E;&ellen&e 8or Doral Ree8 tu$ies at James Dook niversit5. :+e answer is- rett5 naPve.

E$u&ate$ =s+ normall5 turn tail an$ @ee w+en a $iver arme$ wit+ a sear gunaroa&+es wit+in =ring range o8 t+em. :+e t5i&al @ig+t $istan&e is usuall5 %ustover 8our metres,* +e e;lains. (owever in our stu$ies o8 marine reserves in t+e#+iliines, Qanuatu an$ #aua New uinea, w+ere sear=s+ing remains a ma%or wa5 o8

+arvesting ta)le =s+, we $is&overe$ t+at reservereare$ =s+ were mu&+ less war5 an$allowe$ eole to get mu&+ &loser. )he *sh are literally more catchable. :+eteam stu$ie$ =s+ a&ross t+e )oun$aries o8 marine reserves 8rom 200 metres insi$e t+erote&te$ areas to 200 metres into t+e =s+e$ areas. :+e5 use$ un$erwater markers an$measuring taes to measure t+e 6@ig+t initiation $istan&e7 o8 =s+ targete$ lo&all5 )5 sear=s+ers. :+is in$i&ates +ow &lose a skin $iver &an aroa&+ to a large =s+ )e8ore it $e&i$es to

turn an$ @ee. :+e5 8oun$ t+at target =s+ living in =s+e$ areas were t5i&all5 mu&+warier o8 $ivers, an$ took @ig+t at $istan&es a metre or two 8urt+er awa5, t+an onesliving wit+in t+e reserve. :+e5 also esta)lis+e$ t+at t+e 6naivete ra$ius7, w+ere)5 more&at&+a)le =s+es sill out o8 t+e marine reserves e;ten$e$ 8or at least 1<0 metres 8rom t+e)oun$ar5. :+e team7s =n$ings suggest t+at =s+ers are more likel5 to &at&+ =s+ t+at stra5 outo8 t+e reserve, an$ so imrove t+e lo&al =s+ +arvest. :+is ma5 +el =s+ers )e&ome more

suortive o8 marine reserves. JD7s r Ni&k ra+am, a &oaut+or on t+e stu$5 sai$ t+at int+ese arts o8 t+e o&eans, sear =s+ing was still ver5 mu&+ a)out survival 8or +umans an$utting 8oo$ on t+e 8amil5 ta)le. o it is imortant t+at lo&al =s+ers 8eel t+e5 are $erivingsome )ene=t 8rom +aving a lo&al area t+at is &lose$ to =s+ing, or t+e5 ma5 not rese&t it,*

r ra+am sai$. :+is in8ormation is also use8ul in tra$itional reserves w+ere =s+ingis ta)oo most o8 t+e time, )ut t+en t+e5 are oene$ 8or =s+ing )5 village el$ers %usta 8ew $a5s a 5ear.* 'r Janu&+owski(artle5 sai$ t+at on t+e 8a&e o8 it, t+is work suggestst+at marine reserves &an la5 an imortant role in utting more =s+ on t+e ta)le o8 lo&al&ommunities in t+ese troi&al lo&ations G as well as &onserving overall =s+ sto&ks an$relenis+ing t+ose outsi$e t+e reserve.

)hey cant solve – the environment is terminally dead due to

inevitable coral reef destructionR!ER @6A@U6B , L1?1/an e&ologist, $oes resear&+ in resour&e

management at Australian National niversit5,A 3orl$ 3it+out Doral Ree8s , New Sork :imes, +tt-www.n5times.&om20120L14oinionaworl$wit+out&oralree8s.+tmlagewante$TallUVrT0AK#F

>:7 ast time to tell t+e trut+ a)out t+e state o8 t+e worl$7s &oral ree8s , t+e nurseries o8 troi&al&oastal =s+ sto&ks. :+e5 +ave )e&ome Hom)ie e&os5stems, neit+er $ea$ nor trul5alive in an5 8un&tional sense, an$ on a tra%e&tor5 to &ollase wit+in a +umangeneration. :+ere will )e remnants +ere an$ t+ere, )ut the global coral reef ecosystem +ith its storehouse of biodiversity and *sheries su##orting millions of the

+orlds #oor +ill cease to )e. !ver=s+ing, o&ean a&i$i=&ation an$ ollution are us+ing &oral ree8sinto o)livion. Ea&+ o8 t+ose 8or&es alone is 8ull5 &aa)le o8 &ausing t+e glo)al &ollase o8 &oral ree8sW toget+er, t+e5

assure it. :+e s&ienti=& evi$en&e 8or t+is is &omelling an$ uneuivo&al, )ut t+ereseems to )e a &olle&tive relu&tan&e to a&&et t+e logi&al &on&lusion X t+at t+ere isno +oe o8 saving t+e glo)al &oral ree8 e&os5stem . 3+at we +ear instea$ is an air)rus+e$ view o8

t+e &risis X a view en$orse$ )5 &oral ree8 s&ientists, amli=e$ )5 environmentalists an$ a&&ete$ )5 governments.

Doral ree8s, like rain 8orests, are a s5m)ol o8 )io$iversit5. An$, like rain 8orests, t+e5are ortra5e$ as e;istentiall5 t+reatene$ X )ut salvagea)le. :+e message is- :+ere is 5et

+oe.* >n$ee$, t+is view is e&+oe$ in t+e &onsensus statement* o8 t+e %ust&on&lu$e$ >nternational Doral Ree8


http://www.ecology.com/2012/03/01/rising-seas-threaten-low-lying-coastlines/

http://www.ecology.com/2012/04/05/knock-effects-coral-reef-fishing/



http://www.ecology.com/2012/03/01/rising-seas-threaten-low-lying-coastlines/





5mosium, w+i&+ &alle$ on all governments to ensure t+e 8uture o8 &oral ree8s.* >t was signe$ )5 more t+an 2,000

s&ientists, oO&ials an$ &onservationists. )his is less a cons#iracy than a sort of

institutional inertia. overnments $on7t want to )e )lame$ 8or $isasters on t+eir wat&+,

&onservationists aarentl5 value +oe over trut+ , an$ s&ientists o8ten $on7t see t+eree8s 8or t+e &orals. @ut by #ersisting in the false belief that coral reefs have

a future, +e grossly misallocate the funds needed to co#e +ith the fallout

from their colla#se. 'one5 isn7t sent to stu$5 w+at to $o a8ter t+e ree8s are goneX on w+at sort o8 e&os5stems will rela&e &oral ree8s an$ w+at oortunities t+erewill )e to nu$ge t+ese into rovi$ing eole wit+ 8oo$ an$ ot+er use8ul e&os5stemro$u&ts an$ servi&es. Nor is mone5 sent to reserve some o8 t+e geneti&resour&es o8 &oral ree8s )5 trans8erring t+em into s5stems t+at are not &oral ree8s.

An$ mone5 isn7t sent to make t+e e&onomi& stru&tural a$%ustment t+at &ommunities an$ in$ustries t+at $een$ on

&oral ree8s urgentl5 nee$. De have focused too much on the state of the reefs

rather than the rate of the #rocesses !illing them. !ver=s+ing, o&ean a&i$i=&ation an$

ollution +ave two 8eatures in &ommon. Cirst, t+e5 are a&&elerating . :+e5 are growing )roa$l5in line wit+ glo)al e&onomi& growt+, so t+e5 &an $ou)le in siHe ever5 &oule o8$e&a$es. e&on$, t+e5 +ave e;treme inertia X t+ere is no real rose&t o8 &+anging

t+eir tra%e&tories in less t+an 20 to <0 5ears . -n short, these forces areunsto##able and irreversible. nd it is these t+o features acceleration

and inertia that have blindsided us. !ver=s+ing &an )ring $own ree8s )e&ause =s+ are one o8

t+e ke5 8un&tional grous t+at +ol$ ree8s toget+er. etaile$ 8orensi& stu$ies o8 t+e glo)al =s+ &at&+ )5 aniel#aul57s la) at t+e niversit5 o8 Britis+ Dolum)ia &on=rm t+at glo)al =s+ing ressure is still a&&elerating even as t+e

glo)al =s+ &at&+ is $e&lining. !ver=s+ing is alrea$5 $amaging ree8s worl$wi$e , an$ it is setto $ou)le an$ $ou)le again over t+e ne;t 8ew $e&a$es. !&ean a&i$i=&ation &an also )ring $own

ree8s )e&ause it aMe&ts t+e &orals t+emselves. Corals can ma!e their calcareous s!eletons

only +ithin a s#ecial range of tem#erature and acidity of the surroundingsea+ater. @ut the oceans are acidifying as they absorb increasing amounts

of carbon dio4ide from the atmos#here. Resear&+ le$ )5 !ve (oeg+ul$)erg o8 t+e

niversit5 o8 Yueenslan$ s+ows t+at &orals will )e us+e$ outsi$e t+eir temeraturea&i$it5 enveloe in t+e ne;t 20

to ?0 5ears, a)sent eMe&tive international a&tion on emissions. 3e +ave less o8 a +an$le on ollution. 3e $o knowt+at nutrients, arti&ularl5 nitrogenous ones, are in&reasing not onl5 in &oastal waters )ut also in t+e oen o&ean. :+is &+ange is a&&elerating. An$ we know t+at &oral ree8s %ust &an7t survive in nutrientri&+ waters. :+ese &on$itionsonl5 en&ourage t+e mi&ro)es an$ %ell5=s+ t+at will rela&e &oral ree8s in &oastal waters. 3e &an sa5, t+oug+, wit+somew+at less &ertaint5 t+an 8or over=s+ing or o&ean a&i$i=&ation t+at unstoa)le ollution will 8or&e ree8s)e5on$ t+eir survival enveloe )5 mi$&entur5. :+is is not a stor5 t+at gives me an5 leasure to tell. But it nee$s to)e tol$ urgentl5 an$ wi$el5 )e&ause it will )e a $isaster 8or t+e +un$re$s o8 millions o8 eole in oor, troi&al

&ountries like >n$onesia an$ t+e #+iliines w+o $een$ on &oral ree8s 8or 8oo$. -t +ill also threaten the

tourism industry of rich countries +ith coral reefs, li!e the United States,

ustralia and Ea#an. Countries li!e 7e4ico and )hailand +ill have boththeir food security and tourism industries badly damaged. An$, almost ana8tert+oug+t, it will )e a trage$5 8or glo)al &onservation as +ot sots o8 )io$iversit5are $estro5e$. 3+at we will )e le8t wit+ is an algal$ominate$ +ar$ o&ean )ottom,

as t+e remains o8 t+e limestone ree8s slowl5 )reak u, wit+ lots o8 mi&ro)ial li8esoaking u t+e sun7s energ5 )5 +otos5nt+esis, 8ew =s+ )ut lots o8 %ell5=s+ graHingon t+e mi&ro)es. >t will )e slim5 an$ look a lot like t+e e&os5stems o8 t+e #re&am)rian era, w+i&+ en$e$ more

t+an <00 million 5ears ago an$ well )e8ore =s+ evolve$. Coral reefs +ill be the *rst, butcertainly not the last, maor ecosystem to succumb to the nthro#ocene X

t+e new geologi&al eo&+ now emerging. :+at is w+5 we nee$ an enormous reallo&ation o8 resear&+, governmentan$ environmental eMort to un$erstan$ w+at +as +aene$ so we &an reson$ t+e ne;t time we 8a&e a $isaster o8t+is magnitu$e. >t will )e no )a$ t+ing to learn +ow to $o su&+ e&ologi&al engineering now.





/NC 3nforcement Not Gey"bama solves both regulatory and enforcement concerns and

the US isnt !ey – all the a5 does is anger *shing lobbies

6oc! &$/> [Ro&k o8 t+e Doast, June 24, 2014, !)ama #rooses Bol$ E;ansion o8

#a&i=& !&ean 'arine an&tuaries,*+tt-www.ro&ko8t+e&oast.&om20140/24o)amarooses)ol$e;ansiono8a&i=&o&eanmarinesan&tuaries 3

aun&+ing a )roa$ &amaign to a$$ress signi=&ant maritime issues su&+ asover=s+ing an$ ollution, on June 1L #resi$ent !)ama announ&e$ t+at, )5e;e&utive or$er, +e inten$s to make a vast stret&+ o8 t+e #a&i=& !&ean t+e worl$7slargest marine san&tuar5XoM limits to =s+ing, energ5 e;loration an$ ot+era&tivities . :+e a$ministration also lans to &reate a me&+anism to allow t+e u)li&to nominate new marine san&tuaries oM .. &oasts. :+e roosal, w+i&+ will takeeMe&t later t+is 5ear, &alls 8or t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arine National 'onumentto e;an$ 8rom a)out L,000 suare miles to almost L2,000 suare miles. :+e

$esignate$ o&ean area en&omasses a remote, unin+a)ite$ region a$%a&ent to islan$s an$ atolls &ontrolle$ )5 t+e

.. an$ e;ten$s u to 200 nauti&al miles oMs+ore 8rom t+ese territories. :+e roosal 8a&es t+eo)%e&tion o8 t+e .. tuna @eet t+at oerates in t+e region. to ?Z o8 t+e annual.. tuna &at&+ is &aug+t in t+e western an$ &entral #a&i=&. 3+en t+e #a&i=&Remote >slan$s 'arine National 'onument was &reate$ )5 #resi$ent eorge 3.Bus+ in 2009, sort =s+ing was e;emte$ to &ounter in$ustr5 oosition. -f the#rotected area e4#ands , recreational *shing interests +ill #robably see!

to retain the e4isting e4em#tion to avoid setting a #recedent, even t+oug+ sort

=s+ing a&tivit5 in t+e e;anse is s&ar&e. A u)li& &omment erio$ t+is summer will rovi$e t+e eartments o8Dommer&e an$ >nterior wit+ uto$ate in8ormation on t+e level o8 &ommer&ial a&tivit5 in t+e area an$ make an5

ne&essar5 mo$i=&ations. :+e otential e;an$e$ area woul$ in&lu$e a =ve8ol$ in&rease int+e num)er o8 rote&te$ un$erwater mountains, +alt tuna =s+ing, an$ s+elter$oHens o8 se&ies o8 marine mammals, en$angere$ sea turtles , as well as a variet5o8 s+arks an$ ot+er re$ator5 se&ies, an$ rote&t some o8 t+e worl$7s most ristinean$ )iologi&all5 ri&+ marine e&os5stems . As art o8 t+e a$ministration7s in&rease$ 8o&us on maritime

issues, the resident +ill also direct federal agencies to develo# a

com#rehensive #rogram to *ght seafood fraud and the +orld+ide blac!$

mar!et *sh trade, and review o8 stes t+e .. &an take to sto# illegal *shing, w+i&+$oes untol$ $amage to marine e&os5stems an$ to &oastal nations aroun$ t+e worl$.!)ama +as also )een a$vise$ to &onsi$er e;an$ing t+e )or$ers o8 t+e monumentsBus+ &reate$ in t+e Nort+western (awaiian >slan$s an$ t+e 'arianas :ren&+. "ther

countries are also creating marine reserves. :+e Britis+ government is movingto rote&t t+e area aroun$ t+e #it&airn >slan$s in t+e #a&i=&, an$ t+e small #a&i=&islan$ o8 Kiri)ati lans to &lose an area roughly the siHe of California to&ommer&ial =s+ing )5 5ear7s en$. :+e #resi$ent7s roose$ a&tion is a huge ste#for+ard for the ocean ,* sai$ Cran&es Beine&ke, #resi$ent o8 t+e Natural Resour&ese8ense Doun&il NRD F. E;an$ing t+ese rote&tions will rovi$e a sa8e +aven 8or&oral gar$ens, seamounts, an$ t+e ri&+ waters t+at suort +un$re$s o8 se&ies o8=s+, sea turtles, giant &lams, $ol+ins, w+ales an$ s+arks, &onserving t+em 8or8uture generations. )his re#resents a commitment to the !ind of bold action



needed to restore the failing health of our ocean, on w+i&+ we all $een$,an$ &ontinues t+e )iartisan tra$ition o8 o&ean rote&tion. 3e +oe it sets t+e stage8or taking similar a&tion to rote&t ke5 areas o8 our o&ean aroun$ t+e .. an$ t+eworl$.*



/NC -m#ossible to 3nforce3nforcement fails$$ too strict and its more li!ely to be violated Bra;ton D. avis, re$ . 'oretti, L200LEn8or&ing . 'arine #rote&te$ Areas,5nt+esis Reort, National !&eans an$ Aeronauti&s asso&iation, National 'arine#rote&te$ Areas Denter, niversit5 o8 out+ern Dali8ornia, Baru&+ >nstitute 8ormarine an$ &oastal s&ien&es, reg is as >' s5stems &ontra&tor 8or N!AA an$ t+e'arine #rote&tive Area Denter+tt-marinerote&te$areas.noaa.gov$8u)li&ationsen8or&ement.$8AK#

A num)er o8 aut+ors +ave $es&ri)e$ t+e nee$ 8or regulations to )e $eveloe$ in amanner t+at 8a&ili tates en8or&ement utinen, Rieser, an$ auvin 1990W aure&1999W Nielsen an$ 'at+iesen 2000F. A&&or$ing to t+ese stu$ies, regulations s+oul$)e as &omati)le wit+ e;isting =s+ing atterns an$ ra&ti&es as ossi)le . >n severalanis+ =s+eries, nearl5 all =s+ers reorte$ t+at ra&ti&al $iO&ulties limite$ t+eira)ilit5 to &oml5 wit+ regulations Nielsen an$ 'at+iesen 2000F. >n a$$ition, t+emore restri&tive a regulation, t+e greater t+e in&en tive is to violate utinen,

Rieser, an$ auvin 1990F. >t t+ere8ore aears imortant t+at manag ers anti&iatet+e imme$iate e&onomi& ima&ts o8 new marine rote&te$ area regulations !rtiH2001F. Ne;t, regulations s+oul$ )e internall5 &onsistent, as well as &onsistent wit+t+e oli&ies o8 ot+er relevant agen&ies ermer 2001F. 'as&ia 200?F 8oun$ t+at&lear, easil5 un$erstoo$, an$ easil5 en8or&ea)le regulations were ositivel5&orrelate$ wit+ '#A er8orman&e. Regulations s+oul$ also remain sta)le over timein or$er to maintain awareness utinen, Rieser, an$ auvin 1990FW ho+ever, a

tradeo5 e4ists bet+een stability and the Ie4ibility needed for ada#$ tive

ecosystem management (anna 199F. Cinall5, Nielsen an$ 'at+iesen argue t+atregulations s+oul$ )e er&eive$ as &re$i)le, an$ t+ere8ore must eit+er )e$emonstrate$ to a&+ieve results t+roug+ erio$i& rogram evaluations or must )e

)ase$ on t+e e;erien&es an$ knowle$ge o8 t+e =s+ers t+em selves Nielsen an$'at+iesen 2000F. Kueran an$ utinen 199F suggeste$ t+at it ma5 also )e &riti&alt+at =s+ers er&eive t+e )oun$aries o8 &lose$ areas as reasona)le an$ aroriate.Curt+er, it ma5 )e imortant to avoi$ se&i=& re$etermine$ targets 8or t+e aerial&overage o8 8uture '#As $uring '#A lanning, su&+ as =8t5 er&ent o8 t+e areas+oul$ )e set asi$e 8or )io$iversit5 reservation* Agar$5 an$ ot+ers 200?W avisan$ oeH 2004F. everal aut+ors note$ t+at it is euall5 imor tant t+atmanagement goals )e sta)le, &re$i)le, &omati)le wit+ e;isting ra&ti&es, an$&onsis tent )ot+ internall5 an$ wit+ ot+er regulations. Evi$en&e suggests t+ater&etions o8 '#A man agement goals &an var5 signi=&antl5 )etween stake+ol$ergrous uman, +ivlani, an$ 'ilon 1999W Bro$5 199/F, an$ t+at t+ese $iMeren&es

ma5 in@uen&e er&etions o8 t+e legitima&5 o8 management institutions.

"bamas #lan doesnt solve – region is uninhabited and doesnt

need #rotection

:oldenberg 1> JSuHanne, US environment corres#ondent, "bama to e4#and

marine reserves and crac! do+n on seafood blac! mar!et, )he :uardian, Eune

1K, /01>, htt#=99+++.theguardian.com9environment9/01>9un91K9obama$oceans$marine$reserves$leonardo$dica#rio, accessed &9/&91>L



But t+e move was in some wa5s s5m)oli&. Be&ause t+e islan$s are unin+a)ite$,t+ere is ver5 little =s+ing in t+e area !)ama rooses to rote&t, an$ no in$i&ationmining or $rilling is imminent. (owever, s&ientists sa5 )igger marine san&tuariesare easier to en8or&e an$ allow more se&ies to re&over. 'ore t+an ?<0 s&ientistst+is week signe$ on to a letter to t+e 3+ite (ouse urging !)ama to e;an$ marine

san&tuaries to u to 20Z o8 ea&+ o&ean region un$er &ontrol."ne$siHe$*ts$all strategy fails for reserves – turns the case

Norse et al., Coun$er an$ D+ie8 &ientist o8 'arine Donservation Biolog5

>nstitute, <

[Elliott A., E&ologi&al o&iet5 o8 Ameri&a, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Vo. 1 No. 9 p495-502, !arine "eserves# $he %est &ption 'or &(r &ceans)*

Novem)er 200?, +tt-alum)i.stan8or$.e$umanus&ritsmarineZ20reservesZ20t+eZ20)estZ20otionZ208orZ20ourZ20o&eans.$8 , '

'ost '#A literature )egins wit+ a litan5 o8 t+e 8ailures o8 =s+eries management an$

'#A a$vo&ates +ave o8ten use$ t+e =s+eries management )ene=ts o8 '#As as ama%or selling oint. '#As &an onl5 )ene=t t+e 5iel$ o8 manage$ se&ies i8 t+ese&ies is over=s+e$ an$ i8 t+e movement rate o8 t+e sawning oulation is lowenoug+ relative to t+e siHe o8 t+e '#As t+at sawning oula tions &an )uil$ uinsi$e t+em. +i 2002F oints out t+at t+ese two &ir&umstan&es are rat+erunusual. !nl5 ?0Z o8 t+e ma%or =s+eries in t+e are &lassi=e$ as over=s+e$, an$8or most o8 t+ose se&ies t+e movement o8 a$ults is great enoug+ t+at onl5 large'#As woul$ +ave mu&+ eMe&t. in&e &urrent 5iel$ o8 =s+eries is over 0Z o8 itsotential 5iel$ (il)or et al. in ressF, t+ere is little room 8or '#As to in&rease =s+5iel$s. Cor '#As to )e eMe&tive in in&reasing sustaina)le 5iel$ 8or a se&ies, t+esiHes o8 t+e rote&te$ areas must )e &are 8ull5 mat&+e$ to t+e movement o8 t+at

se&ies. >8 t+e '#As are ver5 large relative to movement, t+en 5iel$ is re$u&e$)e&ause t+e =s+ are lo&ke$ u. >8 t+e '#As are too small, t+en t+ere is insigni=&ant)uil$u insi$e t+e reserves. No attern o8 '#As will )e otimal, or even suita)le, 8orall se&iesW +aving $iMerent areas &lose$ 8or $iMerent se&ies woul$ rovi$e )etter5iel$ an$ &onserva tion )ene=ts t+an )lanket '#As. u&+ areas are stes 8or war$in t+e management o8 =s+eries )e&ause t+e5 re&og niHe t+e nee$ 8or satialmanagement, )ut t+e5 are ver5 )lunt tools an$ we &an $o mu&+ )etter t+an onesiHe=ts all networks i8 our o)%e&tive is to ma;imiHe sustaina)le 5iel$. Rat+er t+an)roa$l5 imroving =s+eries 5iel$s, a network o8 '#As mig+t imrove 5iel$ in a 8ewinstan&es. '#As must )e integrate$ into t+e =s+eries management s5stem. >t iseasil5 $emonstrate$ t+at a$$ing an '#A to a =s+er5 regulate$ )5 &at&+ uotas will

generall5 reuire t+at t+e uota )e re$u&e$. 3+ile a$vo&ates argue t+at '#As willin&rease =s+ 5iel$s #>D! 2002F, t+e5 rarel5, i8 ever, $o t+e uantitative workne&essar5 to $etermine +ow regu lations will nee$ to &+ange w+en an '#A is ut inla&e

http://palumbi.stanford.edu/manuscripts/marine%20reserves%20the%20best%20option%20for%20our%20oceans.pdf






7ulti#le challenges to solvency – mis#lacement, ignoring non

#rotected areas, and alt causes

Norse et al., Coun$er an$ D+ie8 &ientist o8 'arine Donservation Biolog5

>nstitute, <

[Elliott A., E&ologi&al o&iet5 o8 Ameri&a, Frontiers in Ecology and the EnvironmentVo. 1 No. 9 p495-502, !arine "eserves# $he %est &ption 'or &(r &ceans)*

Novem)er 200?, +tt-alum)i.stan8or$.e$umanus&ritsmarineZ20reservesZ20t+eZ20)estZ20otionZ208orZ20ourZ20o&eans.$8 , '

'arine &onservation lags )e+in$ terrestrial &onservation in 8un$ing, s&ien&e, an$imlementation. :+e sluggis+ness wit+ w+i&+ we +ave &ome to 8o&us on marine&onservation is ine;&usa)le. (owever, t+ere is some a$vantage to not )eing =rst. >narti&ular, we &an learn 8rom t+e su&&esses an$ 8ailures asso&iate$ wit+longstan$ing s5stems o8 arks an$ wil$li8e reserves on lan$. As we ra&e toesta)lis+ '#As, we s+oul$ ause to &onsi$er t+e 8ollowing ten lessons t+at aregleane$ 8rom our e;erien&e wit+ terrestrial &onservation. \ :errestrial arks +aveo8ten )een lo&ate$ in t+e wrong la&es t5i&all5 t+ose t+at are o8 little e&onomi&value &ott et al. 2001F. Cor e;amle, in t+e we +ave man5 national arks inareas o8 snow an$ ro&k, wit+ lit tle ro$u&tivit5 or )io$iversit5. >8 we take a similararoa&+ to marine &onservation, an$ la&e '#As w+ere oliti&al 8or&es oMer t+eleast resistan&e, we will en$ u wit+ an ill$esigne$ reserve network. \ 'an5suose$l5 rote&te$ terrestrial areas are in 8a&t no more t+an aer arks, inw+i&+ a la&k o8 en8or&e ment results in oa&+ing, illegal logging, an$ even min ing.En8or&ement will ro)a)l5 )e an even greater &+al lenge in t+e marine realm. \lo)al &limate &+ange is real an$ reresents a serious &+allenge to t+e $esign o8an5 reserve network. #arks t+at are =;e$ in sa&e t+ere8ore risk )e&oming o)solete.Dlearl5, &onsi$eration o8 resilien&e in t+e 8a&e o8 &li mate &+ange s+oul$ )e a arto8 an5 lan 8or '#As 3est an$ alm 200?F. \ >nvasive se&ies are t+e greatestt+reat to terrestrial reserves, )ut +ave not =gure$ rominentl5 in $is&us sions o8marine &onservation. (owever, invasive se&ies o8ten $ramati&all5 alter marinee&os5stems im)erloM 2000F. 'arine reserves will reuire as mu&+ rote&tionagainst nonin$igenous se&ies as against +arvest or ot+er +uman $istur)an&es. \All too o8ten, terrestrial &onservation +as 8o&use$ on &olle&ting long lists o8 se&ies,wit+ little attention ai$ to t+e maintenan&e o8 &riti&al e&ologi&al ro&esses. >nterrestrial s5stems t+ese ro&esses in&lu$e natural $is tur)an&es su&+ as =res an$@oo$s. >n marine s5stems t+e5 &oul$ in&lu$e 8res+water inuts an$ re&oloniHation8ollowing large $istur)an&es su&+ as +urri&anes. 3+ereas a relativel5 small areama5 &ature man5 se&ies wit+in its )or$ers, it usuall5 takes a mu&+ larger area to

rote&t e&ologi&al ro&esses. \ !n a relate$ note, a m5oi& 8o&us on t+ea&&umulation o8 long lists o8 se&ies wit+in t+e smallest ossi)le area )io$iversit5+otsotsF &an 8ail to rote&t t+e $iversit5 o8 e&os5stems an$ e&os5stem servi&esD+ristensen 200?W Kareiva an$ 'arvier 200?F. A 8o&us on se&ies rote&tion willt5i&all5 lea$ to a ver5 $iMerent allo&a tion o8 &onservation eMort t+an woul$ a8o&us on t+e &onservation o8 e&os5stem $iversit5. Bot+ se&ies ro te&tion an$e&os5stem rote&tion s+oul$ )e &onsi$ere$ in lans 8or marine &onservation. \Dorri$ors an$ &onne&tions )etween terrestrial reserves are wi$el5 em)ra&e$ in







t+eor5, )ut oorl5 $o&umente$ wit+ $ata im)erloM et al. 1992F. :+e samemismat&+ )etween t+eoreti&al aeal an$ emiri&al suort is evi$ent in marine$is&ussions o8 &onne&tivit5. Be8ore rus+ing to invest in marine &orri$ors, we s+oul$await some &onvin&ing evi$en&e o8 t+eir eMe&tiveness. \ :+e e&ologi&al status o8 t+ematri; in w+i&+ terrestrial reserves are em)e$$e$ &an )e as imortant as t+e

integrit5 o8 t+e arks t+emselves ail5 1999F. >t ma5 )e imossi)le to a&+ieve our&onservation goals i8 we 8o&us too narrowl5 on marine reserves to t+e negle&t o8 t+esurroun$ing +uman$ominate$ lan$s&aes an$ seas&aes. \ 3i$eranging se&iessu&+ as &ari)ou, salmon, an$ migrator5 )ir$s +ave ose$ se&ial &+allenges to &onservation lanners in terrestrial settings roves 200?F. :+ese same &+allenges willal5 to t+e man5 wi$e ranging marine se&ies, an$ will reuire a mu&+ more&omli&ate$ strateg5 t+an %ust networks o8 )io$iversit5 reserves. \ No naturereserve s5stem &an )e sustaina)le wit+out also making sure t+at lo&al +umanoulations are ro vi$e$ 8or NDE 1992F. :+is rin&ile will &ertainl5 +ol$ 8or&oastal =s+eries, w+i&+ man5 lo&al &ommuni ties rel5 on 8or liveli+oo$ an$ 8oo$.'u&+ is ma$e o8 t+e uniue &+allenges ose$ )5 marine &onservation. 3+ile marines5stems +ave e;traor$inar5 )iologi&al nuan&es, man5 o8 t+e lessons learne$ 8romter restrial &onservation will surel5 al5 euall5 well in a marine setting. :+e&riti&al $iMeren&e )etween marine an$ terrestrial &onservation +as less to $o wit+)iolog5 t+an wit+ t+e oli&5 &onte;t an$ oliti&al %usti=&ations use$ w+en arguingt+at marine areas s+oul$ )e set asi$e as reserves. e&i=&all5, a$vo&ates o8 '#As&ommonl5 argue t+at t+e sillover o8 =s+ 8rom wit+in t+ese areas &an su lement+arvest in surroun$ing Hones, an$ +en&e rovi$e a winwin &onservation toolrote&te$ )io$iversit5 an$ greater +arvestF. 'eanw+ile, on lan$, no one asks t+atterrestrial rote&te$ areas ro$u&e a surlus o8 wil$li8e t+at sills over an$ suortssurroun$ing +unting &ommuni ties. #er+as we s+oul$ t+ink a)out '#As in t+esame wa5 we t+ink a)out terrestrial arks siml5 as se&ure +avens 8or )io$iversit5.

:+e real &+allenge 8or marine &onservation ma5 well lie in t+e management o8 nonreserve areas, w+i&+ we risk negle&ting in our 8on$ness 8or '#As.

6eserves fail – alt causes

llison et al, eartment o8 ]oolog5, '8

[ar5 3., E&ologi&al o&iet5 o8 Ameri&a, L992, 'arine Reserves are Ne&essar5)ut Not uO&ient Cor 'arine Donservation,+tt-resear&+.)s&i.u&s&.e$uee)r&la)w&ontentuloa$s201201Allisonetal.E&olA199.$8 , '

:+e intensit5 o8 +uman ressure on marine s5stems +as le$ to a us+ 8or strongermarine &onservation eMorts. Re&entl5, marine reserves +ave )e&ome one+ig+l5a$vo&ate$ 8orm o8 marine &onservation, an$ t+e num)er o8 newl5 $esignate$reserves +asin&rease$ $ramati&all5. Reserves will )e essential 8or &onservationeMorts )e&ause t+e5 &anrovi$e uniue rote&tion 8or &riti&al areas, t+e5 &anrovi$e a satial es&ae 8or intensel5 e;loite$ se&ies, an$ t+e5 &an otentiall5 a&tas )uMers against some management mis&al&ulations an$ un8oreseen or unusual&on$itions. Reserve $esign an$ eMe&tiveness &an )e $ramati&all5 imrove$ )5

http://research.pbsci.ucsc.edu/eeb/rclab/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Allison-et-al.-Ecol-App-1998.pdf








)etter use o8 e;isting s&ienti=& un$erstan$ing. Reserves areinsu8=&ient rote&tionalone, +owever, )e&ause t+e5 are not isolate$ 8rom all &riti&al ima&ts.Dommunitiesresi$ing wit+in marine reserves are strongl5 in@uen&e$ )5 t+e +ig+l5 varia)le&on$itions o8 t+e water masses t+at &ontinuousl5 @ow t+roug+ t+em. :o a mu&+greater $egree t+an in terrestrial s5stems, t+e s&ales o8 8un$amental ro&esses,

su&+ as oulation relenis+ment, are o8ten mu&+ larger t+an reserves &anen&omass. Curt+er, t+e5 oMer no rote&tion 8rom some imortant t+reats, su&+ as&ontamination )5 &+emi&als. :+ere8ore, wit+out a$euate rote&tion o8 se&ies an$e&os5stems outsi$e reserves, eMe&tiveness o8reserves will )e severel5&omromise$. 3e outline &on$itions un$er w+i&+ reserves are likel5 to )e eMe&tive,rovi$e some gui$elines 8or in&reasing t+eir &onservation otential, an$ suggestsome resear&+ riorities to =ll &riti&al in8ormation gas. 3e strongl5 suortvastl5in&reasing t+e num)er an$ siHe o8 marine reservesW at t+e same time, strong &onservation eMorts outsi$e reserves must &omlement t+is eMort. :o $ate, mostreserve $esignan$ site sele&tion +ave involve$ little s&ienti=& %usti=&ation. :+e5must )egin to $o so toin&rease t+e likeli+oo$ o8 attaining &onservation o)%e&tives.

3ither *sh are too con*ned or too much free movement – turnsthe case

alumbi, eartment o8 !rganismi& an$ Evolutionar5 Biolog5 at (arvar$

niversit5, <

[te+en R., E&ologi&al o&iet5 o8 Ameri&a, 14/1<, #!#A:>!N ENE:>D,E'!RA#(>D D!NNED:>Q>:S, AN :(E

E>N !C 'AR>NE REERQE,+tt-we).stan8or$.e$ugrou#alum)imanus&rits#alum)i200?ED!A##1?.1.$8 ,'

Emiri&al stu$ies o8 reserve e;ort +ave )een limite$ to a 8ew &ases in w+i&+ 1F=s+ tagge$ wit+in reserves +ave )een &ature$ outsi$e Attwoo$ an$ Bennett1994F, 2F =s+eries 5iel$s +ave in&rease$ outsi$e o8 t+e reserve )oun$aries'&Dlana+an an$ Kaun$aArara 199/F, an$ ?F larvae o8 rote&te$ se&ies aremorea)un$ant %ust outsi$e a reserve t+an 8ar outsi$e see#alum)i 2001 8or reviewF.Be&ause t+ese emiri&alstu$ies +ave )een so $iO&ult to &on$u&t, mo$eling e88orts+ave la5e$ a strong role in $eveloing an un$erstan$ing o8 +ow marine reserves8un&tion in a regional &onte;t see Bots8or$ et al. 200?F. Set t+esemo$els generall5rel5 on several assumtions a)out t+e$egree o8 $emogra+i& e;&+ange )etweent+e reservesin a network or )etween reserves an$ t+e e;loite$+a)itatssurroun$ing t+em #alum)i 2001F. ow $isersal )etween a reserve an$ t+esurroun$ing +a)itats&an severel5 limit t+e a)ilit5 o8 a reserve toen+an&ero$u&tivit5 in t+e overall =s+er5, )e&ause e;tra eggs,larvae, or a$ults are66trae$77 insi$e t+e rote&te$area. !n t+e ot+er e;treme, in=nite movement o8a$ults8rom reserves to surroun$ing, unrote&te$ Hones severel5 re$u&es reserveeMe&tiveness, ese&iall5 w+enreserves are small an$ a$ults are ver5 migrator5.>nsu&+ &ases, in$ivi$uals are rote&te$ onl5 as long ast+e5 are insi$e reserve

http://web.stanford.edu/group/Palumbi/manuscripts/Palumbi2003ECOLAPPL13.1.pdf






)oun$aries, an$ reserves as amanagement tool 8un&tion onl5 as well astra$itional&ontrol o8 =s+ing eMort (astings an$ Bots8or$ 1999F



/NC -ntelligence )urn7arine reserves destroy survival instincts of *sh +hich ma!es

them susce#tible to further *shing

7angalorean, 1/ ;1191'91>, 6eserves Aumb Ao+n Fishes Survival

-nstincts, 7angalorean, htt#=99+++.mangalorean.com9s#ecials9s#ecialne+s.#h#Mne+sid<2'2KKOne+sty#elocal, accessed &9/891>, %:?

5$ne5, Nov 19 >ANF 'arine reserves seem to $um) $own survival instin&ts amongrote&te$ =s+es , ese&iall5 w+en it &omes to avoi$ing sear =s+ers outsi$e t+erote&te$ Hone, a&&or$ing to an Australian stu$5. Resear&+ers 8rom ARD Dentre o8

E;&ellen&e 8or Doral Ree8 tu$ies at James Dook niversit5 sai$ )ig, inno&ent =s+eswan$ering out o8 t+e reserve resent an une;e&te$ win$8all to sear =s+ersawaiting t+em. :+ere are lent5 o8 reorts o8 =s+, )ot+ a$ults an$ %uveniles,moving out o8 reserves an$ into t+e surroun$ing sea. (aving grown u in an areaw+ere t+e5 were rote&te$ 8rom +unting, we won$ere$ +ow naive t+e5 woul$ )ewit+ regar$ to avoi$ing $anger 8rom +umans, sa5s Craser Janu&+owski(artle5 o8 t+e

ARD &entre. :+e answer is- rett5 naive. E$u&ate$ =s+ normall5 turn tail an$ @ee w+ena $iver arme$ wit+ a sear gun aroa&+es wit+in =ring range o8 t+em. :+e t5i&al@ig+t $istan&e is usuall5 %ust over 8our metres , t+e %ournal E&olog5 etters reorts.(owever, in our stu$ies o8 marine reserves in t+e #+iliines, Qanuatu an$ #aua Newuinea, w+ere sear=s+ing remains a ma%or wa5 o8 +arvesting ta)le =s+, we $is&overe$ t+atreservereare$ =s+... are literall5 more &at&+a)le, it sai$. :+e team stu$ie$ =s+ a&ross t+e)oun$aries o8 marine reserves 8rom 200 metres insi$e t+e rote&te$ areas to 200 metresinto t+e =s+e$ areas, a&&or$ing to an ARD statement. :+e5 use$ un$erwater markers an$measuring taes to measure t+e ^@ig+t initiation $istan&e^ o8 =s+ targete$ lo&all5 )5 sear=s+ers. :+is in$i&ates +ow &lose a skin $iver &an aroa&+ to a large =s+ )e8ore it $e&i$es to

turn an$ @ee. :+e5 8oun$ t+at target =s+ living in =s+e$ areas were t5i&all5 mu&+warier o8 $ivers, an$ took @ig+t at $istan&es a metre or two 8art+er awa5, t+an onesliving wit+in t+e reserve . :+e5 also esta)lis+e$ t+at t+e ^naivete ra$ius^, w+ere)5more &at&+a)le =s+es sill out o8 t+e marine reserves e;ten$e$ 8or at least 1<0metres 8rom t+e )oun$ar5.



/NC Not 3noughuthors concede that marine reserves arent enough$$maor

solvency de*cit

Barr5 3. @roo! et al, Nav%ot o$+i, Dore5 J.A. Bra$s+aw, 2008Resear&+

>nstitute 8or Dlimate D+ange an$ ustaina)ilit5, &+ool o8 Eart+ an$ Environmental&ien&es, niversit5 o8 A$elai$e, A$elai$e, A <00<, Australia, eartment o8Biologi&al &ien&es, National niversit5 o8 ingaore, 14 &ien&e rive 4, ingaore11L<4?, Reu)li& o8 ingaore, out+ Australian Resear&+ an$ eveloment>nstitute, #.!. Bo; 120, (enle5 Bea&+, A <022, Australia, &+ool 8or EnvironmentalResear&+, D+arles arwin niversit5, arwin, N: 0909, Australia5nergies amonge;tin&tion $rivers un$er glo)al &+ange :ren$s in E&olog5 an$ Evolution, /240,/2414,+tt-www.s&ien&e$ire&t.&oms&ien&earti&leii01/9<?4L00019<_AK#F

:+is review s+ows t+at e;tin&tion resear&+ +as s+i8te$ su)stantiall5 over t+e last$e&a$e , 8rom stu$ies t+at 8o&usse$ rimaril5 on t+e ima&t o8 single $rivers to t+osew+i&+ +ave $emonstrate$ a ositive intera&tion s5nergies, or rein8or&ing8ee$)a&ksF o8 more t+an one t+reat via a &om)ination o8 aroa&+es. :+is viewe;li&itl5 em+asises +ow ositive 8ee$)a&ks &orro$e e&os5stem 8un&tion an$energ5 @ow 10, 11 an$ ?9. :+e imli&ation o8 t+is re&ent )o$5 o8 work is t+at onl5)5 treating e;tin&tion as a s5nergisti& ro&ess will re$i&tions o8 risk 8or mostse&ies aro;imate realit5, an$ &onservation eMorts t+ere8ore )e eMe&tive /, 9, 4<,<2 an$ <L. (owever &+allenging it is, #olicy to mitigate biodiversity loss must

acce#t the need to manage multi#le threatening #rocesses simultaneously

over longer terms. (a)itat reservation, restoring $egra$e$ lan$s&aes,maintaining or &reating &onne&tivit5, avoi$ing over+arvest, re$u&ing =re risk an$&utting &ar)on emissions have to be #lanned in unison. !t+erwise, &onservation

a&tions w+i&+ onl5 ta&kle in$ivi$ual t+reats risk )e&oming +al8measures +hich end

in failure , due to uncontrolled cascading e5ects.

6eserves cant solve – alt causes to biodiversity loss and illegal

activity

)u##er et al, niversit5 o8 uam 'arine a)orator5, /

['ark (., 'arine #ollution Bulletin, :+e t+ree s&reen $oors- Dan marine rote&te$*areas )e eMe&tive*, +tt-smma.org.l&#u)li&#u)li&ationsJamesonZ20etZ20alZ202002Z20'#B.$8 , '

:+e great ma%orit5 o8 marine rote&te$ areas '#AsF 8ail to meet t+eir managemento)%e&tives. o '#As &an )e eMe&tive&onservation tools, we re&ommen$ twoara$igm s+i8ts, t+e =rst relate$ to +ow t+e5 are lo&ate$ an$ t+e se&on$ relate$to+ow t+e5 are manage$. '#As are unlikel5 to )e eMe&tive i8 t+e5 are lo&ate$ inareas t+at are su)%e&t to numerous, an$ o8tenun&ontrolla)le, e;ternal stressors 8romatmos+eri&, terrestrial, an$ o&eani& sour&es, all o8 w+i&+ &an $egra$et+eenvironment an$ &omromise rote&tion. '#A eMe&tiveness is also limite$ )5low institutional an$ &ommunit5 &aa&it5 8ormanagement an$ inaroriate siHe

http://smma.org.lc/Public/Publications/Jameson%20et%20al%202002%20MPB.pdf






wit+ rese&t to e&ologi&al nee$s. >n arti&ular, t+e &+e&k list aroa&+ tomanagement$oes not ensure t+at ke5 t+reats are $ealt wit+, or t+at managemente;en$itures rovi$e a uanti=a)le return. 3ere&ommen$ a )usiness lanningaroa&+ to '#A management, in w+i&+ managers 8o&us on t+e via)ilit5 o8 t+emanagements5stem, i.e. t+e a)ilit5 o8 t+e '#A to rovi$e e&ologi&al goo$s an$

servi&es to its target users over t+e long term.` Elsevier &ien&e t$. All rig+tsreserve$.Ke5wor$s- marine rote&te$ area, management eMe&tiveness, &ommunit5&aa&it5, institutional &aa&it5, )usiness lanning,in$e; o8 )ioti& integrit5. :+egeneral w+o wins a )attle makes man5 &al&ulations in +is temle )e8ore t+e )attleis 8oug+t. >t is )5 attention to t+is ointt+at > &an 8oresee w+o is likel5 to win orlose.un :Hu, :+e Art o8 3ar, <00 B. D.1. :+e ? s&reen $oors- a managementerse&tive:+e la&k o8 eMe&tiveness in marine rote&te$ areas'#AsF is no m5ster5to '#A managers in t+e =el$ an$is +ig+lig+te$ )5 several aut+ors Kelle+er et al.199<WAl$er 199/W '&Dlana+an 1999F. !8 t+e 1,?0/ '#Assurve5e$ worl$wi$e )5Kelle+er et al. 199<F onl5 ?1Zo8 t+e areas t+oug+t t+e5 were a&+ievingt+eirmanagement o)%e&tives. everal eMorts are nowun$erwa5 to $etermine i8 '#Amanagement is eMe&tive(o&kings et al. 2000W E+ler et al. 2002W 'BR 2002,DD2002F.>n t+is e;er&ise o8 t+inking outsi$e t+e )o;*,we &onten$ t+at t+e &riti&aluestion t+at nee$s romt&onsi$eration, an$ mu&+ more rigorous evaluation)ot+8or e;isting an$ 8uture '#AsF, is not i8 '#As areeMe&tive )ut &an '#As )eeMe&tive.Ameri&an navalersonnel +ave long $es&ri)e$ tools or met+o$s t+at $i$notwork wit+ t+e ol$ saw as useless as a s&reen $oor ina su)marine*. nless '#Amanagers +ave &ontrol overstressors entering 8rom atmos+eri&, terrestrialan$o&eani& sour&es, t+e5 are tr5ing to manage t+e rover)ialsu)marine wit+ ?s&reen $oors. :+e5 mig+t +ave somesu&&ess on t+e terestrial si$e Dause5 2002F,)ut t+eatmos+eri& an$ o&eani& si$es are usuall5 international, aswell as larges&ale national ro)lems, an$ not easil5mitigate$.:o illustrate t+e oint we onl5 +aveto look at t+e remier&oral ree8 '#A in t+e nite$ tates X t+e Clori$a Ke5sNational'arine an&tuar5 CKN'F. Crom 199/ to1999- &oral &over +as $e&rease$ ?ZW#age 2 .D. Jameson et al. 'arine #ollution Bulletin 44 2002F 11LL11? 11L t+e average rate o8 &oral loss is 1?Z er 5ear an$ isunsustaina)leW t+e num)er o8monitoring stations w+ere $iseaseo&&urre$ in&rease$, as +as t+e num)er o8 &oralse&iesaMe&te$W an$ t+ere was signi=&ant loss o8 se&ies ri&+ness #orter etal.2002F.Dan t+e CKN' )e eMe&tive et7s )rie@5 look at t+eotent mi;ture o8stressors &oming in t+roug+ :+e ?&reen oors :a)le 1F. Dan t+e ima&ts 8romt+ese stressors )e eMe&tivel5mitigate$ G )e8ore t+e &oral ree8 &omletel5 $ies +oul$ mone5 )e sent on san&tuar5 restoration eMortsin a ollute$ environment(ow man5 more millions o8 $ollars s+oul$ nite$tates ta;a5ers sen$ onmanagement* X or s+oul$t+e5 &ut losses now (ow will t+e government e;laint+e loss o8 t+isnational treasure, an$ t+e so&ial an$ e&onomi& )ene=ts$erive$ 8romit, to t+e u)li& w+o truste$ t+em torote&t* it (ow will t+is loss aMe&t t+eotential $esignation oMuture '#As an$ t+eir use as a &onservation tool wit+int+enite$ tates an$ glo)all5 Cigure 1- Air)orne A8ri&an $ust )rown +aHeF over t+eDari))ean eaan$ western Atlanti& !&ean. ust originate$ in t+e a+ara eserto8western A8ri&a w+ere it was li8te$ an$ &arrie$ oM t+e &oast )5 strongwin$s.#revailing win$s &arr5 A8ri&an $ust into t+e CKN' rimaril5$uring June !&to)er.in&e t+e late 19/0s, $roug+ts an$ agri&ulturalra&ti&es +ave in&rease$ t+e siHe o8



ari$ lan$s in Nort+ A8ri&a an$ 8uele$t+e ro)lem 8rom riOn et al., 2002F. atelliteimage &ourtes5 o8 N!AA :+ese are all toug+ uestions t+at will ro)a)l5 +ave to)e8a&e$, not onl5 )5 t+e CKN', )ut )5 man5 '#Assome more t+an ot+ersF X$een$ing on t+eir a)ilit5 tomanage t+e t+ree s&reen $oors an$ t+eir$esignate$uroses i.e. '#As wit+ a stri&tl5 =s+eries 8o&us ma5 )eless aMe&te$ )5

un&ontrolla)le sour&es o8 stress t+angeneral )io$iversit5 t5e '#As wit+ sensitivesessileorganisms, su&+ as &orals, w+i&+ &annot leave t+e area.>n summar5, '#Asare unlikel5 to )e eMe&tive i8 t+e5are lo&ate$ in areas t+at are su)%e&t to numerous,an$o8ten un&ontrolla)le, e;ternal stressors 8rom atmos+eri&,terrestrial, an$o&eani& sour&es, all o8 w+i&+ &an $egra$et+e environment an$ &omromiserote&tion. :+ese&riti&al &al&ulations s+oul$ )e ma$e )e8ore $esignationan$erio$i&all5 reevaluate$ a8ter $esignation. :oriorit5 s+oul$ )e given to$esignating '#As inminimall5 imaire$ lo&ations t+at &an a&t as re8eren&esites 8ormonitoring an$ assessment rograms Jameson etal. 199, Jameson et al su)m.F.!t+er 'a%or !)sta&les to 'anagement u&&ess3+et+er or not an '#A &an a&+ieveits managemento)%e&tives also $een$s greatl5 on t+e level o8 &omlian&e)5 lo&alresour&e users, w+o )ear most o8 t+e &osts o8 an'#A Ru$$ et al. 2001F. :+ero)a)ilit5 o8 &omlian&ewill in&rease i8 lo&al resour&e users $erive $ire&t)ene=ts8rom t+e '#A !strom 1990F. Cor e;amle, in '#Aswit+ a =s+eries 8o&us, 8orsu&+ )ene=ts to o&&ur t+e5 muste;ort suO&ient )iomass to mitigate 8or t+e lossoOs+ing groun$s wit+in t+e '#A )oun$aries. :o $ate,man5 stu$ies +ave 8oun$su)stantial in&reases in )iomasswit+in '#As e.g. Russ an$ Al&ala 199, 199/W#oluninan$ Ro)erts 199?W Jo+nson et al. 1999W Ro)erts et al.2001F, an$ severalstu$ies +ave s+own an in&rease in&at&+eruniteMort D#EF in =s+ing groun$sa$%a&entto '#As e.g., '&Dlana+an U Kaun$aArara 199/W'&Dlana+an U 'angi2000W Ro)erts et al. 2001W Kell5 etal. 2002F. :+ese e&ologi&al stu$ies are &ite$reeate$l5 asevi$en&e 8or t+e su&&ess o8 '#As in =s+eries an$e&os5stemmanagement.>n &ontrast, larges&ale surve5s o8 '#A users,managers an$resear&+ers aint a $iMerent i&ture o8'#A su&&ess. >t is estimate$ t+at a)out ?<Zo8 Dari))ean'#As an$ onl5 101<Z o8 >n$o#a&i=& '#As aremeeting t+eir state$management o)%e&tives Al$er 199/W'&Dlana+an 1999F. 'ost '#As are aerarks* w+i&+la&k &omlian&e on t+e art o8 resour&e users an$monitoring oren8or&ement on t+e art o8 managementagen&ies. 3+5 $o su&+ a +ig+ roortion o8 '#As 8ail tomeet t+eir o)%e&tives Re&ent resear&+ oints to t+e levelo8 &ommunit5an$ institutional &aa&it5 as imortant$eterminants o8 '#A su&&ess Ru$$ et al.2001F.Dommunit5 &aa&it5 re8ers to t+e rules, ro&e$ures an$values t+at eole+ol$, w+i&+ re$isose t+em to work&olle&tivel5 8or mutual )ene=t Ru$$ 2000F.>nstitutional&aa&it5 is t+e a)ilit5 o8 government agen&ies to rovi$eu)li& goo$san$ servi&es an$ ensure t+at laws an$regulations will )e en8or&e$.:+e su&&ess o8'#As as a management tool will )egreatest w+en &ommunities &olle&tivel5 suortt+e '#Aan$ government agen&ies or in some &ases, nongovernmentalorganiHations, Jameson an$ 3illiams 2000Frovi$e t+e ne&essar5 =nan&ing,monitoring, en8or&ement,an$ te&+ni&al e;ertise to ensure t+at '#As rea&+t+eirmanagement o)%e&tives. Cor e;amle, t+e Ao >slan$reserve in t+e #+iliines,o8ten &onsi$ere$ a oster&+il$* 8or &ommunit5)ase$ '#As, +as )een su&&ess8ulinen+an&ing ree8 =s+ oulations an$ &reating tourismrevenue Russ an$ Al&ala 199/,1999F. :+e su&&ess o8 t+eAo >slan$ reserve stems 8rom t+e level o8



&ommunit5&aa&it5, w+i&+ revente$ oortunisti& oa&+ing 8romnegating '#A)ene=ts.Alternativel5, i8 &ommunit5 &aa&it5 is low e.g. in t+e:urks U Dai&os>slan$sF, illegal =s+ing is likel5 to o&&urRu$$ et al. 2001F. >8 &ommunit5 &aa&it5 is+ig+ )utinstitutional &aa&it5 is la&king su&+ as in Ci%i, Dooke etal. 2000F,&ommunities ma5 )e una)le to reventoutsi$ers 8rom oa&+ing in t+eir '#As.

>mroving '#Ainstitutional &aa&it5 is a $iO&ult task. >nstitutional&aa&it5 &an )estrengt+ene$ to some e;tent )5 in@u;eso8 8un$ing 8rom a +ig+er governmental levele.g.,in&rease$ 8e$eral assistan&e to state or territorial resour&emanagementagen&iesF. Dommunit5 &aa&it5, on t+e ot+er+an$, is a 8un&tion o8 t+e &ommunit57sso&ial an$ &ultural +istor5, an$ it ma5 )e $iO&ult to mo$i85 on time s&alesrelevantto resour&e management X t+is is ese&iall5 truein $eveloe$ nations an$ t+eirislan$ territories&oloniest+at $een$ on t+eir governments rat+er t+an t+eirown&ommunities 8or u)li& goo$s an$ servi&es.Anot+er o)sta&le to managementsu&&ess is t+e smallsiHe o8 most '#AsW onl5 1/ km2 on average'&Dlana+an 1999F.

:+e smaller t+e '#A relative to t+e+ome range o8 t+e se&ies wit+in, t+e more timet+osese&ies will sen$ outsi$e t+e '#A an$ t+ere8oreunrote&te$ Kramer an$D+aman 1999F. (owever,resour&e users are unlikel5 to suort '#As largeenoug+to eMe&tivel5 rote&t e;loite$ se&ies. >n$ee$, most'#As are $esigne$ an$lo&ate$ )ase$ on so&ioe&onomi&an$ oliti&al issues '&Dlana+an 1999F an$rarel5a&&ount 8or t+e e&olog5 o8 organisms to )e rote&te$. >n summar5, t+euse8ulness o8 aroriatel5 siHe$, wellmanage$ '#As is not in uestion. 3+atreuires &losers&rutin5 is t+e institutional an$ &ommunit5 &aa&it5ne&essar5 8oreMe&tive '#A management to o&&ur

6eserves fail – designated +ith commercial interests in mind

ressey, #ro8essor an$ #rogram lea$er 8or Donservation #lanning at James Dook

niversit5, 1<

[Bo), :+e Donservation Journal, Australia7s new marine rote&te$ areas- w+5 t+e5won7t work*, Januar5 1L, 201?, +tt-t+e&onversation.&omaustraliasnewmarinerote&te$areasw+5t+e5wontwork114/9, '

!n lan$ an$ in t+e sea, we7re losing sig+t o8 w+at nature &onservation is a)out.3e7ve )e&ome $angerousl5 8o&use$ on rote&te$ areas, )ut rarel5 &onsi$er w+att+e57re suose$ to a&+ieve. !ne result is t+at )io$iversit5 is $e&lining almostever5w+ere w+ile rote&te$ areas e;an$. 3+5 t+e aarent ara$o; Animortant reason is t+at rote&te$ areas ten$ to )e in t+e wrong la&es. !n lan$,it7s a sa8e generalisation t+at rote&te$ areas are )iase$ to resi$ual* la&es t+osewit+ least romise 8or &ommer&ial uses. >n some regions, t+is is )e&ause onl5

resi$ual lan$s&aes survive in an5t+ing like t+eir natural state. But anot+erimortant 8a&tor is oliti&al ragmatism. Ele&torates in man5 &ountries like t+e i$eao8 nature &onservation )ut are un$is&erning a)out e;a&tl5 w+at t+is means.overnments &an t+ere8ore resent resi$ual rote&te$ areas an$ t+e moree;tensive t+e )etter as real rogress 8or &onservation. :+e in&entive 8or resi$ual&onservation is to minimise =nan&ial an$ oliti&al &ost. As s5stems o8 marinerote&te$ areas e;an$, t+eir resi$ual nature is )e&oming o)vious too. !ne o8 t+eworl$7s )est e;amles o8 a resi$ual s5stem o8 marine rote&te$ areas was

http://theconversation.com/australias-new-marine-protected-areas-why-they-wont-work-11469






announ&e$ in Novem)er 2012 )5 t+e Australian overnment. 3+5 woul$ resi$ualrote&te$ areas )e a ro)lem 'ost imortantl5, t+e5 &ontri)ute little to t+e realgoals o8 nature &onservation- to avert t+reats an$ avoi$ loss o8 )io$iversit5. :+e5ten$ towar$ arts o8 %uris$i&tions t+at were $e 8a&to rote&te$ )5 remoteness an$unsuita)ilit5 8or &ommer&ial uses. 'eanw+ile, t+e ro&esses t+at t+reaten

)io$iversit5 &ontinue largel5 una)ate$ an$ $e&lines in )io$iversit5 &ontinue.e&on$, )5 giving a 8alse imression o8 &onservation rogress, resi$ual rote&te$areas use u so&ieties7 toleran&es o8 rote&tion, rogressivel5 making 8uturerote&te$ areas, ese&iall5 t+ose t+at mig+t )e eMe&tive in averting t+reats, more$iO&ult to esta)lis+. :+ir$, resi$ual rote&te$ areas la&e t+e onus o8 real&onservation on oMreserve measures. :+ese var5 greatl5 in eMe&tiveness an$ man5&an )e $ilute$, ignore$, or remove$ at oliti&al or a$ministrative w+im. :+esero)lems mean t+at measuring &onservation rogress in terms o8 t+e e;tent o8rote&te$ areas is usuall5 meaningless. Anot+er imli&ation is t+at resi$ualrote&te$ areas &an ro$u&e out&omes t+at are worse t+an neutral. B5 8ailing toavert resent or imen$ing t+reats w+ile reemting later rote&te$ areas t+at&oul$ )e more eMe&tive, t+eir &ontri)ution &an )e irretrieva)l5 negative.

6eserves fail to #rotect aquatic life – em#irics #rove

Consortium for "cean Peadershi#, /9&

['ost #rote&te$ 'arine Areas Cail :o #roerl5 uar$ Auati& i8e- tu$5*, Ce)ruar5/, 2014,+tt-o&eanlea$ers+i.orgrote&te$marineareas8ailroerl5guar$auati&li8estu$5, '

'ost #rote&te$ 'arine Areas Cail :o #roerl5 uar$ Auati& i8e- tu$5 #oste$ on :+urs$a5, Ce)ruar5 /t+, 2014 at 1-? m A $iver swimming among =s+ on t+e reatBarrier Ree8. #+otogra+- James Dook niversit5AC#ett5 >magesF Dli&k toenlargeF A $iver swimming among =s+ on t+e reat Barrier Ree8. #+otogra+-

James Dook niversit5AC#ett5 >magesF 'ost o8 t+e worl$7s rote&te$ marineareas are 8ailing to roerl5 rote&t auati& li8e, wit+ man5 s+owing 8ew $iMeren&es8rom neig+)ouring areas t+at are oenl5 =s+e$, an Australianle$ stu$5 +as 8oun$.Crom t+eguar$ian.&om )5 !liver 'ilmanF G niversit5 o8 :asmania resear&+ o8 Lmarine rote&te$ areas in 40 &ountries s+owe$ t+e )est marine arks +a$ onaverage eig+t times more large =s+ an$ 14 times more s+arks t+an =s+e$ areas.But t+e resear&+, u)lis+e$ in Nature, 8oun$ t+at <9Z o8 t+e marine arks stu$ie$

were not e&ologi&all5 $istinguis+a)le 8rom =s+e$ sites*. Resear&+ers i$enti=e$ =veke5 traits o8 a wellmanage$ marine ark G no =s+ take, well en8or&e$, esta)lis+e$8or longer t+an 10 5ears, larger t+an 100 suare km an$ isolate$ )5 $ee water orsan$. !nl5 marine arks wit+ 8our or all =ve o8 t+ese &riteria were eMe&tivel5)oosting &onservation values, t+e stu$5 8oun$. Among t+e 2/ marine areas stu$ie$in Australia, t+e onl5 la&e wit+ all =ve ke5 traits was 'i$$le Ree8, near or$ (owe>slan$. :+e si;5ear stu$5, w+i&+ utilise$ s&ientists an$ $ivers 8rom 19 &ountries,&on&lu$e$ t+at w+ile t+e num)er o8 marine rote&te$ areas was in&reasing rai$l5,



t+e )ene=ts generate$ were $iO&ult to re$i&t an$ un$er $e)ate*. '#As o8ten 8ailto rea&+ t+eir 8ull otential as a &onseuen&e o8 8a&tors su&+ as illegal +arvesting,regulations t+at legall5 allow $etrimental +arvesting, or emigration o8 animalsoutsi$e )oun$aries )e&ause o8 &ontinuous +a)itat or ina$euate siHe o8 reserve,*t+e aer states. !ur results s+ow t+at glo)al &onservation targets )ase$ on area

alone will not otimise rote&tion o8 marine )io$iversit5. 'ore em+asis is nee$e$on )etter '#A $esign, $ura)le management an$ &omlian&e to ensure t+at '#Asa&+ieve t+eir $esire$ &onservation value.* #ro8 ra+am E$gar, lea$ aut+or o8 t+ereort at t+e niversit5 o8 :asmania7s >nstitute o8 'arine an$ Antar&ti& tu$ies, sai$t+at oor ualit5 marine arks nee$e$ to )e retro=tte$* to ensure t+e5 roerl5rote&te$ un$erwater li8e. iven t+e +uge &+anges now o&&urring out o8 sig+tun$er water, an$ our oor knowle$ge o8 e;a&tl5 w+at is +aening an$ +ow )est to$eal wit+ t+e various t+reats in$ivi$uall5, t+e nee$ 8or rote&te$ areas t+atsa8eguar$ w+ole &ommunities o8 marine se&ies +as never )een greater,* +e sai$.3+at we $o know is t+at num)ers o8 man5 Australian marine se&ies +ave&ollase$ sin&e Euroean settlement, in&lu$ing some t+at +ave $isaeare$. Atresent, &oastal Honing mas are &on8using, wit+ t+e 8ew &onservation gems +i$$enamongst rote&te$ areas t+at are ineMe&tive )e&ause o8 ina$euate regulations oroor en8or&ement.* >n e&em)er, t+e Doalition government tore u managementlans $rawn u )5 a)or to &reate t+e worl$7s largest network marine arks oMAustralia7s &oast. reg (unt, t+e environment minister, sai$ t+e lans woul$ +avelo&ke$ out* re&reational =s+ers 8rom Australian waters. 3+ile t+e marine ark)oun$aries woul$ remain, new management lans woul$ )e &reate$, $isma5ingenvironmental &amaigners w+o ointe$ out t+at most non=s+ing areas were moret+an <0km 8rom oulation &entres. :+e reat Barrier Ree8 marine ark, ossi)l5t+e most 8amous marine ark in t+e worl$, is set to )e&ome t+e $uming site 8or ?m&u)i& metres o8 $re$ge$ sea)e$ a8ter a ermit 8or t+e &ontroversial $isosal wasissue$ last week.

7arine reserves fail – alt causes and current trends ma!e

reserves unsustainable

@acher, environmental %ournalist, 11

[an, an Cran&is&o Ba5 Area >n$een$ent 'e$ia Denter, N stu$5 sa5s)io$iversit5 loss unstoa)le wit+ rote&te$ areas alone*, Jul5 2, 2011,+tt-www.in$5)a5.orgnewsitems20110L21//??L.+, '

!ur stu$5 s+ows t+at t+e international &ommunit5 is 8a&e$ wit+ a &+oi&e )etweentwo at+s, r. ale sa5s. !ne otion is to &ontinue a narrow 8o&us on &reating

more rote&te$ areas wit+ little evi$en&e t+at t+e5 &urtail )io$iversit5 loss. :+atat+ will 8ail. :+e ot+er at+ reuires t+at we get serious a)out a$$ressing t+egrowt+ in siHe an$ &onsumtion rate o8 our glo)al oulation. 3+ile somegovernments an$ environmental N!s +ave us+e$ &ontroversial marinerote&te$ areas in t+e .. an$ t+roug+out t+e worl$ as t+e solution to rote&tingt+e o&ean an$ maintaining )io$iversit5 in marine e&os5stems, a nite$ Nationsstu$5 release$ on Jul5 2 sai$ &ontinue$ relian&e on a strateg5 o8 setting asi$e lan$an$ marine territories as rote&te$ areas is insuO&ient to stem glo)al

http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2011/07/28/18686337.php






)io$iversit5 loss. :+e assessment oMers a &+allenge to t+ose w+o romote ro%e&tslike Arnol$ &+warHenegger^s &ontroversial 'arine i8e #rote&tion A&t '#AF>nitiative in Dali8ornia, a rivatel5 8un$e$ rogram t+at &reates so&alle$ marinerote&te$ areas t+at 8ail to rote&t Dali8ornia marine waters 8rom oil sills an$$rilling, wave an$ win$ energ5 ro%e&ts, water ollution, +a)itat $estru&tion, militar5

testing an$ all ot+er +uman ima&ts uon t+e o&ean ot+er t+an =s+ing an$gat+ering. esite imressivel5 rai$ growt+ o8 rote&te$ lan$ an$ marine areasworl$wi$e to$a5 totalling over 100,000 in num)er an$ &overing 1L million suarekilometers o8 lan$ an$ 2 million suare kilometers o8 o&eans )io$iversit5 is instee $e&line, a&&or$ing to a &omre+ensive assessment u)lis+e$ in t+e %ournal'arine E&olog5 #rogress eries. E;e&te$ s&enarios o8 +uman oulation growt+an$ &onsumtion levels in$i&ate t+at &umulative +uman $eman$s will imose anunsustaina)le toll on t+e Eart+^s e&ologi&al resour&es an$ servi&es a&&elerating t+erate at w+i&+ )io$iversit5 is )eing loss, state$ a news release 8rom t+e nite$Nations niversit5. :+e s&ientists sa5 &urrent an$ 8uture +uman reuirements willalso e;a&er)ate t+e &+allenge o8 eMe&tivel5 imlementing rote&te$ areas w+ilesuggesting t+at eMe&tive )io$iversit5 &onservation reuires new aroa&+es t+ata$$ress un$erl5ing &auses o8 )io$iversit5 loss in&lu$ing t+e growt+ o8 )ot+ +umanoulation an$ resour&e &onsumtion. Bio$iversit5 is +umanit5^s li8esuorts5stem, $elivering ever5t+ing 8rom 8oo$, to &lean water an$ air, to re&reation an$tourism, to novel &+emi&als t+at $rive our a$van&e$ &iviliHation, sa5s lea$ aut+orDamilo 'ora o8 niversit5 o8 (awaii at 'anoa. Set t+ere is an in&reasingl5 well$o&umente$ glo)al tren$ in )io$iversit5 loss, triggere$ )5 a +ost o8 +umana&tivities. !ngoing )io$iversit5 loss an$ its &onseuen&es 8or +umanit5^s wel8areare o8 great &on&ern an$ +ave romte$ strong &alls 8or e;an$ing t+e use o8rote&te$ areas as a reme$5, sa5s 8ellow aut+or #eter C. ale, Assistant ire&tor o8t+e nite$ Nations niversit5^s Dana$ian)ase$ >nstitute 8or 3ater, Environmentan$ (ealt+. 3+ile man5 rote&te$ areas +ave +ele$ reserve some se&ies atlo&al s&ales, romotion o8 t+is strateg5 as a glo)al solution to )io$iversit5 loss, an$t+e a$vo&a&5 o8 rote&tion 8or se&i=& roortions o8 +a)itats, +ave o&&urre$wit+out a$euate assessment o8 t+eir otential eMe&tiveness in a&+ieving t+e goal.rs. 'ora an$ ale warn t+at longterm 8ailure o8 t+e rote&te$ areas strateg5&oul$ ero$e u)li& an$ oliti&al suort 8or )io$iversit5 &onservation an$ t+at t+e$isroortionate allo&ation o8 availa)le resour&es an$ +uman &aital into t+isstrateg5 re&lu$es t+e $eveloment o8 more eMe&tive aroa&+es. :+e aut+ors)ase$ t+eir stu$5 on e;isting literature an$ glo)al $ata on +uman t+reats an$)io$iversit5 loss. #rote&te$ areas are ver5 use8ul &onservation tools, )utun8ortunatel5, t+e stee &ontinuing rate o8 )io$iversit5 loss signals t+e nee$ toreassess our +eav5 relian&e on t+is strateg5, state$ r. ale. :+e =ve limitations o8relian&e on rote&te$ areas :+e stu$5 sa5s &ontinuing +eav5 relian&e on t+erote&te$ areas strateg5 +as =ve ke5 te&+ni&al an$ ra&ti&al limitations. :+e =rst o8t+ese limitations is t+at rote&te$ areas onl5 ameliorate &ertain +uman t+reats.Bio$iversit5 loss is triggere$ )5 a +ost o8 +uman stressors in&lu$ing +a)itat loss,overe;loitation, &limate &+ange, ollution an$ invasive se&ies, a&&or$ing to t+estu$5. Set rote&te$ areas are use8ul rimaril5 against overe;loitation an$ +a)itatloss. in&e t+e remaining stressors are %ust as $eleterious, )io$iversit5 &an )ee;e&te$ to &ontinue $e&lining as it +as $one until now. :+e stu$5 s+ows t+at



aro;imatel5 ?Z o8 rote&te$ areas on t+e sea an$ 9<Z o8 rote&te$ areas onlan$ are lo&ate$ in areas wit+ &ontinuing +ig+ ima&t 8rom multile +umanstressors. :+is &on&lusion )5 t+e s&ientists e&+oes one o8 t+e ke5 &riti&isms o8Dali8ornia^s 'arine i8e #rote&tion A&t '#AF >nitiative t+e marine rote&te$areas &reate$ )5 t+is wi$el5&onteste$ ro&ess $on^t &omre+ensivel5 rote&t t+e

o&ean 8rom t+e main t+reats to t+e o&ean an$ marine li8e in Dali8ornia. :+eset+reats in&lu$e massive water $iversions out o8 t+e Ba5elta Estuar5, waterollution, oil sills an$ $rilling, wave an$ win$ energ5 ro%e&ts, militar5 testing,+a)itat $estru&tion an$ all ot+er +uman ima&ts ot+er t+an sustaina)le =s+ing an$gat+ering. >roni&all5, even )e8ore t+e imosition o8 t+ese largel5 re$un$ant o&ean&losures t+at are now )eing &onteste$ )5 &oalition o8 =s+ing organiHations in &ourt,Dali8ornia marine an$ ana$romous =s+eries +a$ t+e stri&test re&reational an$&ommer&ial =s+ing regulations on t+e entire lanet. '#A a$vo&ates re8use toa&knowle$ge t+e e;isten&e o8 one o8 t+e largest marine rote&te$ areas in t+eworl$, t+e Ro&k=s+ Donservation Area, t+at en&omass t+e entire &ontinental s+el8o8 Dali8ornia 8rom t+e !regon )or$er to t+e 'e;i&an )or$erb A se&on$ limitation&ite$ in t+e stu$5 is un$er8un$ing. lo)al e;en$itures on rote&te$ areas to$a5are estimate$ at "/ )illion er 5ear an$ man5 areas are insuO&ientl5 8un$e$ 8oreMe&tive management, t+e assessment notes. EMe&tivel5 managing e;istingrote&te$ areas reuires an estimate$ "24 )illion er 5ear 8our times &urrente;en$iture. esite strong a$vo&a&5 8or rote&te$ areas, )u$get growt+ +as )eenslow an$ it seems unlikel5 t+at it will )e ossi)le to raise 8un$ing aroriate 8oreMe&tive management as well as 8or &reation o8 t+e a$$itional rote&te$ areas as isa$vo&ate$, a&&or$ing to t+e reort. Again, t+e assessment e&+oes t+e &riti&ism )5=s+ermen an$ grassroots environmentalists t+at t+ere is not suO&ient 8un$ing 8oren8or&ement o8 new marine rote&te$ areas '#AsF un$er t+e 'arine i8e #rote&tionA&t >nitiative. :+e game war$ens re8er to t+ese new '#As as marine oa&+ingareas, sin&e t+e5 will onl5 srea$ a 8or&e o8 war$ens alrea$5 una)le to eMe&tivel5monitor e;isting reserves even t+inner. >n 8a&t, Jerr5 Karnow, t+e resi$ent o8 t+eDali8ornia Cis+ an$ ame 3ar$ens Asso&iation, +as reeate$l5 aske$ t+e Dali8orniaCis+ an$ ame Dommission to not &reate new marine rote&te$ areas unlesssuO&ient 8un$ing is rovi$e$ to +ire new war$ens. :+e t+ree ot+er limitationsinointe$ )5 t+e s&ientists are- t+e e;e&te$ growt+ in rote&te$ area &overageis too slow t+e siHe an$ &onne&tivit5 o8 rote&te$ areas are ina$euate &on@i&tswit+ +uman $eveloment. (umanit5^s 8ootrint on Eart+ is ever e;an$ing ineMorts to meet )asi& nee$s like +ousing an$ 8oo$, t+e s&ientists state$. >8 it $i$rove ossi)le to la&e t+e re&ommen$e$ ?0Z o8 worl$ +a)itats un$er rote&tion,intense &on@i&ts wit+ &ometing +uman interests are inevita)le man5 eolewoul$ )e $isla&e$ an$ liveli+oo$s imaire$. Cor&ing a tra$eoM )etween +uman$eveloment an$ sustaining )io$iversit5 is unlikel5 to lea$ to a solution wit+)io$iversit5 reserve$. Don&lusion- )io$iversit5 loss un$erestimate$, eMe&tivenesso8 rote&te$ areas overestimate$. iven t+e &onsi$era)le eMort an$ wi$esrea$suort 8or t+e &reation o8 rote&te$ areas over t+e ast ?0 5ears, we weresurrise$ to =n$ so mu&+ evi$en&e 8or t+eir 8ailure to eMe&tivel5 a$$ress t+e glo)alro)lem o8 )io$iversit5 loss, r. 'ora &on&lu$es. Dlearl5, t+e )io$iversit5 lossro)lem +as )een un$erestimate$ an$ t+e a)ilit5 o8 rote&te$ areas to solve t+isro)lem overestimate$. :+e aut+ors un$erline t+e &orrelations )etween growing



worl$ oulation, natural resour&es &onsumtion an$ )io$iversit5 loss to suggestt+at )io$iversit5 loss is unlikel5 to )e stemme$ wit+out $ire&tl5 a$$ressing t+ee&ologi&al 8ootrint o8 +umanit5. Base$ uon revious resear&+, t+e stu$5 s+owst+at un$er &urrent &on$itions o8 +uman &onsumtion an$ &onservative s&enarios o8+uman oulation growt+, t+e &ummulative use o8 natural resour&es o8 +umanit5

will amount to t+e ro$u&tivit5 o8 u to 2L Eart+s )5 20<0.



/NC Congress @loc!s Q""bamas Q" +ont even get enacted$ Congress is #ushing hard

to bloc! it

Juliet 3l#erin 3riter 8or t+e 3as+ington #ost. #a&i=& =s+ing interests oose

!)ama7s lan to e;an$ marine reserve.* June ?0, 201>.+tt-www.was+ingtonost.&om)logsostoliti&sw20140/?0a&i=&=s+inginterestsooseo)amaslantoe;an$marinereserveD(F

:+e5 talk a)out t+is as i8 it7s a $one $eal, Donat+an sai$ o8 t+e =s+er5 &oun&il^sstatement. :+ere is also an eMort un$erwa5 in Dongress to $en5 !)ama t+eaut+orit5 to &reate a national marine monument un$er t+e 190/ Antiuities A&t,w+i&+ resi$ents 8rom )ot+ arties +ave invoke$ over t+e ast &entur5. ast weekRe. teve out+erlan$, a =er&e &riti& o8 t+e a$ministration^s o&ean oli&ies,intro$u&e$ a )ill t+at woul$ reuire &ongressional aroval 8or an5 new nationalmonument.



/NC Pocal Communities )urn6eserves marginaliHe local communities – no long term su##ort

for or sustainability of reserves

Christie, &+ool o8 'arine AMairs an$ (enr5 '. Ja&kson &+ool o8 >nternational

tu$ies at t+e niversit5 o8 3as+ington, >

[#atri&k, Ameri&an Cis+eries o&iet5, 'arine #rote&te$ Areas as Biologi&alu&&esses an$ o&ial Cailures in out+east Asia*,+tts-$ets.was+ington.e$usmeasites$e8ault=lesatri&k&'#As.D+ristie.ACZ20)ook.2004.$8 , '

:+e marine rote&te$ area '#AF literature to $ateis mainl5 &omrise$ o8 stu$ies&onsi$ering t+e )iologi&al signi=&an&e o8 t+is management aroa&+.:+e so&alle$sillover eMe&t,* &onne&tivit5, aroriate $imensions, an$ +a)itat reresentationaresome o8 t+e most a&tive areas o8 inuir5 e.g., Russan$ Al&ala 199/W alm et al.2000W NRD 2001W Ro)erts et al. 2001F. As +ig+lig+te$ in a re&ent essa5

)5seventeen so&ial s&ientists, '#A resear&+ an$ t+eresultant literature is generall5la&king $etaile$ a&&ounts o8 t+e so&ial imli&ations o8 '#As an$ t+ea&tivitiesasso&iate$ wit+ t+em su&+ as =s+ing, re&reational $iving, tourism, an$ resear&+D+ristie etal. 200?&F. :+is aer grew out o8 a &on8eren&e sonsore$ )5 t+eNational !&eani& an$ Atmos+eri&A$ministration N!AAF in 2002 as an attemt to=llt+is nota)le ga in '#A resear&+ an$ u)lis+e$ literature N!AA 2002F. :+ereare a 8ew nota)le e;&etions to t+is &+ara&teriHation e.g., :rist 1999Wan$ersenan$ Koester 2000W #ollna& et al. 2001F,an$ it is &lear t+at '#As, an$ rote&te$ areasin general, are )eginning to attra&t &onsi$era)le attention)5 t+ose mainl5intereste$ in t+e +uman $imensionso8 environmental management.:+e la&k o8so&ial resear&+ on '#As +as le$ toat least two un8ortunate &on$itions- an

in&omlete un$erstan$ing o8 +ow to most eMe&tivel5 utiliHe t+is oularmanagement tool an$ omissions 8rom t+e s&ienti=& literature o8 otentiall58as&inating a&&ounts o8+uman resonses to '#As D+ristie et al. 200?&W'as&ia et al.200?F. !ne e;amle o8 an omission ist+e general un$erreresentation o8 &on@i&tsurroun$ing '#A esta)lis+ment an$ imlementation in t+e'#A literature. :+isaer will $emonstrate t+at, int+e troi&s, &on@i&t o8ten stems 8romt+emarginaliHation o8 artisanal =s+eries )5 ot+er 8ormso8 resour&e utiliHation su&+ as$ive tourism. 3+ile t+is&on@i&t an$ its reortingF ma5 )e $is&on&erting tosomeenvironmentalists an$ s&ientists a$vo&ating'#As, a &are8ul &onsi$eration o8 t+ere&etivit5 oOs+ing &ommunities to '#As is 8un$amental 8or t+eirlongterm su&&essAgar$5 et al. 200?F.>8 t+e measure o8 '#A su&&ess is mainl5 )ase$on )iologi&al

metri&s, t+en it is lausi)le t+at some'#As, at least in t+e s+ort term, ma5 )e&onsi$ere$ )iologi&al su&&esses w+ile simultaneousl5 &ausingso&ial +arm su&+ as&on@i&t an$ e&onomi& an$ so&ial$islo&ation 8or $isa$vantage$ &ommunities su&+asartisanal =s+ing &ommunities near '#AsF. >n resonse, t+e marginaliHe$&ommunit5 ma5 eit+erstrongl5 resist t+e imosition o8 t+e '#A or initiall5suortt+e '#A )ut t+en lose interest. Ciel$ resear&+resente$ in t+is aer an$ ot+era&&ounts $emonstrates t+at t+is s&enario is not un&ommon an$ +as astrong$esta)iliHing eMe&t on an5 '#A :rist 1999Wan$ersen an$ Koester 2000W D+ristie et

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:sqbl9NylcyIJ:https://depts.washington.edu/smea/sites/default/files/patrickc/MPAs.Christie.AFS%2520book.2004.pdf+&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us


https://depts.washington.edu/smea/sites/default/files/patrickc/MPAs.Christie.AFS%20book.2004.pdf







al. 200?a,200?)W !ra&ion 200?F.Base$ on t+e e;erien&es o8 8our 8ailing or vulnera)le '#As, t+is stu$5 &omments on t+e imli&ations o8 ignoring so&ial&omle;ities asso&iate$ wit+'#As. >n &on&lusion, a &ase is ma$e to imroveourun$erstan$ing o8 t+e &omle; an$ mi;e$ results o8'#As t+us 8ar. :+e intent is to+el ensure t+eir )iologi&al an$ so&ial su&&ess an$ to imrove t+e likeli+oo$ t+at

t+e5 will rovi$e tangi)le )ene=ts su&+ asin&rease$ )io$iversit5 an$ imrove$=s+eries an$ tourism management.

Failure to retain local su##ort ma!es long term sustainability

im#ossible

Christie, &+ool o8 'arine AMairs an$ (enr5 '. Ja&kson &+ool o8 >nternational

tu$ies at t+e niversit5 o8 3as+ington, >

[#atri&k, Ameri&an Cis+eries o&iet5, 'arine #rote&te$ Areas as Biologi&alu&&esses an$ o&ial Cailures in out+east Asia*,+tts-$ets.was+ington.e$usmeasites$e8ault=lesatri&k&'#As.D+ristie.ACZ20)ook.2004.$8 , '

!8 t+e 8our well$o&umente$ '#As in t+e #+iliinesan$ >n$onesia t+at were&+osen, all met stan$ar$ )iologi&al &riteria o8 su&&ess more &onsistentl5 t+an stan$ar$ &riteria o8 so&ial su&&ess :a)le 1F. >n general,initiall5 su&&ess8ul managementro&esses at an alva$or >slan$, :win Ro&ks, an$ Bali&asag >slan$ '#As+ave$eteriorate$ over time wit+out &onsistent an$longterm suort o8 governmentalagen&ies an$ nongovernmental organiHations t+at initiall5 esta)lis+e$t+em. #oorl5manage$ &ontrovers5 an$ &on@i&t are $erailing t+ese '#As. >n Bunaken National#ark,man$ate$ )5 t+e >n$onesian national government an$suorte$ wit+ e;ternalai$, management an$ t+e en8or&ement o8 notake areas is ro&ee$ing )ut in amanner t+at $oes not ne&essaril5 re@e&t t+e interests o8man5 lo&al =s+ing

&ommunities. Base$ on lessons8rom t+e ot+er sites, t+is reresents an unsta)lesituation t+at likel5 reuires &orre&tive measures. :o +ig+lig+t gross similaritiesan$ $iMeren&es, one oint wasassigne$ w+enever a site eMe&tivel5 met a &riteriono8su&&ess even in t+e most lenient senseF. an alva$or- >nitial u&&ess Ero$e$)5>nterersonal Don@i&t Ea&+ '#A +as a uniue an$ interesting +istor5 t+at+else;lain t+e a)ove &+ara&teriHations. !n analva$or >slan$, initial su&&ess in&ommunit5)ase$management D+ristie an$ 3+ite 1994W D+ristie et al.1994W 3+iteet al. 1994W Katon et al. 1999F +as givenwa5 to intense interersonal &on@i&ts t+at+ave arisen)etween longstan$ing rivals wit+in t+e &ommunit5D+ristie et al.200?aF. :+e '#A management ro&ess +as )e&ome an oortunit5 t+roug+ w+i&+su&+&on@i&t, ongoing )etween ke5 &ommunit5 lea$ers 8ormore t+an 40 5ears, +as

e;an$e$. 3+ile seemingl5trivial an$ un$erreorte$F, su&+ interersonal&on@i&t&an +ave a strong $etrimental ima&t &onsi$ering t+e&ommunit5)ase$nature o8 t+e management s5stem.Esta)lis+e$ in Jul5 199, an alva$or>slan$7s12<+a notake '#A &ontinues to )e rote&te$ )5 a8ew &ommitte$ a$vo&ates8rom t+e &ommunit5 an$ asuortive lo&al ma5or. :+ere8ore, at least until1999,environmental &on$itions were imroving or sta5ing&onstant w+ile t+emanagement ro&ess )e&ome in&reasingl5 tenuous Cigure 1F. e&ies ri&+ness+asin&rease$ 8rom 12/ se&ies )elonging to 19 8amiliesin 19 to 1? se&ies










)elonging to 2 8amilies in199 D+ristie an$ 3+ite 1994W D+ristie et al.200?aF.ome 8ormer suorters &omlain t+at a$vo&atesare unwilling to s+areresonsi)ilit5 an$ are +eav5+an$e$ in t+eir met+o$s o8 en8or&ement. As a result,t+eislan$ &ommunit5, w+i&+ 8ormerl5 aeare$ to )euni=e$ )e+in$ t+e '#A D+ristie etal. 1994W Katonet al. 1999F, is now &learl5 $ivi$e$ D+ristie et al.200?aF. 3+ile

en8or&ement is an imortant ingre$ient8or su&&ess8ul rograms, it is imortant 8orlongtermsustaina)ilit5 t+at wi$e stake+ol$er suort e;ists#eluso 1992W Bre&+in etal. 2002W owe 200?F. 3it+out &onsi$era)le &on@i&tGresolution interventions,t+elikeli+oo$ t+at management will &ontinue 8or anot+er $e&a$e is unlikel5 )ase$ onre&ent interviews an$ &omarative resear&+ on $esign rin&iles 8or su&+ management s5stems !strom 1992W #ollna& et al. 2001F. :win Ro&ks- >nitial u&&esssure$ )5 >n@uentialtake+ol$er :win Ro&ks is t+e site o8 a $esta)iliHing &on@i&t)etween $ive resort owners an$ lo&al =s+ing &ommunities D+ristie et al. 200?$W!ra&ion 200?F. >n t+emost suer=&ial sense, t+is &on@i&t stems 8rom $isagreementsover w+et+er re&reational $ivingXa ra&ti&e 8ormall5 )anne$ )5 t+e '#A7sregulations )ut)roa$l5 ignore$ )5 $ive s+o ownersXs+oul$ )eallowe$ in t+e smallnotake area aro;imatel5 ?+aF. :+e interstake+ol$er &on@i&t is groun$e$ in&lass$istin&tions an$ er&etions o8 environmentalmanagement, a +enomenonaarent in ot+er #+iliine &onte;ts NaHarea et al. 199F. :+e involve$$ive s+oowners are generall5 8rom t+e &aital &it5,mu&+ more acuent t+an lo&al =s+ers,an$ oliti&all5well &onne&te$ wit+ lo&al oO&ials artl5 as a resulto8 ele&tion&amaign &ontri)utionsF. As a result, t+eseelites are a)le to wiel$ greater in@uen&eover '#Amanagement ra&ti&es an$ +ave usure$ &ontrol 8romt+e 8oun$ing&ommunit5 #eluso 1992W :rist 1999Wan$ersen an$ Koester 2000W owe 200?W!ra&ion200?F. As o8 1999, t+e resort owners ur&+ase$ t+enears+ore lan$s an$ aret+e main en8or&ers o8 t+e'#A. >n Jul5 2001, one owner was arti&ularl5 &ommitte$an$ vigilant-But w+at >7m telling t+e eole in t+is &ommunit5 is, 8or t+e ree8dwetake &are o8 it. [> sentman5 sleeless nig+ts [rote&ting t+e san&tuar5.> +ave to)ear t+e )ur$en o8 getting t+e ire o8t+ese eole. :+at7s oka5. > $on7t &are. Aslongas t+e =s+ are t+ere. 3e will +ave to )ri)e eole.> will resort to an5t+ing t+atwill revent an5 $ire&t negative ima&t [on t+e san&tuar5d#re$i&ta)l5, =s+ers,w+o initiall5 voluntaril5 rote&te$ t+e notake area over a erio$ o8 L 5earsF asarto8 t+e &ommunit5)ase$ management regime, areeit+er losing interest in t+e '#Aor are lotting +owto sto $iving insi$e t+e reserve an$ reassert t+eir in@uen&e.3+en aske$ w+5 t+e5 are losing interest, in8ormants e;resse$ a general sense o8mistrust o8 t+e$ive in$ustr5 an$ &on&ern t+at '#A management isno longer 8air.

:+ere is a struggle 8or owners+i overt+is '#A an$ t+e resort owners are er&eive$as +aving violate$ t+e tenets o8 &ommunit5)ase$ resour&emanagement 3+ite etal. 1994W #ollna& et al. 2001W!ra&ion 200?F. !ne &ommunit5 lea$er w+o$e$i&ate$5ears o8 voluntar5 eMort +as now $istan&e$ +erselMrom t+is work-Now,sin&e t+e resort was esta)lis+e$ t+e5 [resort owners are t+e ones w+o guar$ an$rote&tt+e san&tuar5. But > t+ink t+e5 alrea$5 took overt+e san&tuar5 an$ t+at7s t+ero)lem nowd mm,t+e5 mig+t +ear m5 interview. :+e57ll )e angr5wit+ medAske$w+5 t+is &ontrol was a ro)lem as long as t+esan&tuar5 was rote&te$, s+e relie$,it7s t+e same,)ut t+e onl5 t+ing is t+at san&tuar5 is 8or t+e &ommunit5, now t+e5[t+e resort owners are alrea$5 takingit over it.* :+is '#A management ro&ess issuMering t+e 8ate o8 its own su&&ess in one &ommunit5lea$er7s oinion- >8 t+ere7s



goo$ management, our&oastal resour&es )loom. :+at7s w+en $ivers &ame in.Resorts&ame in. But &ommunit5)ase$ management+as also vanis+e$d*Cigure 2 $isla5s$ata 8rom t+ree lo&ationsX:win Ro&ks t+e en8or&e$ '#AF, Art+ur7s Ro&kanonen8or&e$ '#A $ue to ast &on@i&tsF, an$ anear)5 non'#A ree8. >n&rease in=s+ a)un$an&e8or target se&ies 8or all sites +as )een marginall5signi=&ant sin&e

199< twowa5 anal5sis o8 varian&e[AN!QA, time, # T 0.0/<F. :+ere is asigni=&ant$iMeren&e )etween sites twowa5 AN!QA, site, #T 0.0??F, wit+ :winRo&ks )eing signi=&antl5 $i88erent 8rom non'#A sites &+eM7s test, # f 0.01F)utnot signi=&antl5 $iMerent 8rom Art+ur7s Ro&k&+eM7s test, # T 0.19<F. :win Ro&kstarget =s+a)un$an&e in 2001 was 20.9 1?4F in$ivi$uals er<00 m2. :arget =s+a)un$an&e +as remaine$ &onstant 8or t+e near)5 non'#A sites sin&e 199<. :+isisan in$i&ation t+at an5 sillover* 8rom t+e '#Asis likel5 )eing &aug+t )5 lo&al=s+ersXa &on$ition&onsistent wit+ ot+er '#As in t+e #+iliinesD+ristie et al.2002F. :+e greatest in&rease in target=s+ a)un$an&e 8or :win Ro&ks took la&e)etweensamling in 199L an$ 2001. A lausi)le &on&lusionis t+at on&e lo&al resortowners took over management an$ en8or&ement o8 t+e notake area t+erewereimme$iate )ene=&ial )iologi&al ima&ts.Crom an e;&lusivel5 )iologi&alerse&tive, &on$itions at :win Ro&ks are onl5 imroving. Crom aso&ial erse&tive,su&+ $isregar$ 8or t+e &ommunit5)ase$ regime reresents a 8ailure.:+e s&enario o8 interstake+ol$er tensions, arti&ularl5 )etween tourist )rokers an$ resour&e users,is &ommon 3est et al. 200?F. >n 8a&t, it is aarentalt+oug+ again un$erreorte$)5 some a$vo&atesF inot+er &onservationGtourism $estinations su&+ asou8rihre, tu&ia :rist 1999W an$ersen an$ Koester2000W Ro)erts et al. 2001F an$ BunakenNational #arkalm et al. 2000W D+ristie et al. 200?)W owe 200?F.ome '#Aa$vo&ates an$ s&ientists seemingl5+ave $etermine$ t+at tourism is t+e mosteMe&tive e&onomi& engine to roel t+e &onservation agen$a 8orwar$ Ni&+ols1999W :rist 1999W owe 200?F. >n su&+&ases, it aears t+at en8or&ement s5stemsare more&ommon t+an in&entive)ase$ or sel8monitoring management s5stems)ase$ on &omlian&e rat+er t+an en8or&ement #eluso 1992W Bre&+in et al. 2002F.3+ilemost woul$ argue t+at en8or&ement is ne&essar5 8or'#A su&&ess, t+e growingten$en&ies towar$ &oer&ive me&+anisms t+at are not &omati)le wit+ot+er&ooerative otions reresents a )reak 8rom t+e earl5su&&esses o8 &ommunit5)ase$ an$ &omanagement regimes in t+e #+iliines an$ elsew+ere 3+itean$avina 19LW 3+ite et al. 1994W D+ristie an$ 3+ite199LW Bre&+in et al. 2002F.Bali&asag >slan$- ost Dommunit5 Dontrol (asNegative Biologi&al >ma&ts :+einsertion o8 &entral government agen&5 &ontrolover a &ommunit5)ase$ '#A +ast+e otential toun$ermine &ommunit5 suort on Bali&asag >slan$D+ristie et al.2002F. (istori&all5, t+e #+iliine national government +a$ 8ormal &ontrol over=s+eriesresour&es. :+e assage o8 $e&entraliHation laws in t+e1990s allowe$&ommunit5)ase$ reserves to @ouris+in t+at &onte;t 3+ite et al. 2002F. (owever,t+e #+iliines National :ourism Aut+orit5 N:AF, w+i&+ isan arm o8 t+e &entralgovernment, +as eMe&tivel5 lai$&laim to t+e Bali&asag >slan$ '#A. :+e N:A )uiltaresort at t+e s+ores o8 t+e notake area an$ now &atures, along wit+ oMs+ore$ive )usinesses, t+e ma%orit5 o8 revenues generate$ )5 t+is '#A. o&al resi$entsare relegate$ to selling s+ells an$ ts+irts to visitors. 3+ile t+e N:A +as statione$an arme$ guar$ att+e '#A, +e is una)le to monitor t+e area eMe&tivel5.Cormerl5suortive &ommunit5 mem)ers are nowlikel5 oa&+ers, as mani8este$ )5 $e&lining



=s+ oulations insi$e an$ outsi$e t+e notake area D+ristie etal. 2002F.#oorl5manage$ so&ial $5nami&s +ave real &onseuen&es 8or )iologi&al resour&es. Cis+a)un$an&es o8target se&ies wit+in 8amilies su&+ as errani$ae,ut%ani$ae,et+rini$ae, an$ Darangi$aeF wit+in t+e notake area +ave $e&line$ 291Z 8rom aeak in 19/ one5ear a8ter '#A imlementationF to a low in 1999D+ristie et al.

2002F. Cis+ a)un$an&e on t+e ree8 neart+e notake area +ave also severel5 $e&line$8rom 19/1,/42 22? in$ivi$uals<00 m2F to 1999 2?0 /<in$ivi$uals<00 m2F. :+ere is no longer an5 signi=&ant$iMeren&e in =s+ a)un$an&e w+en &omaring=s+ingareas on Bali&asag wit+in 1 km o8 t+e notake areaFwit+ near)5 &ontrol sitesw+ere =s+ing is allowe$, )utwit+out near)5 '#As. Even i8 Bali&asag7s '#AwereeMe&tivel5 manage$, it is likel5 t+at isolate$ '#As will+ave a $e&lining eMe&twit+out a wi$er oli&5 o8 =s+ing eMort re$u&tion in t+e #+iliines 3+ite et al.2002F.>nitial su&&ess stories ro)a)l5 )e&ome magnets 8or in&reasingl5 $eserate=s+ers 8rom ot+er areas in t+e #+iliines. :+e Bali&asag &ase rovi$es evi$en&e o8 t+e)iologi&al &onseuen&es o8 oorl5 8un&tioning so&ial 0100200?00400<0019901991 1992 199? 199< 199L 2001Sear'ean num)er =s+<00 m:win Ro&ksArt+ur7sRo&kNon'#A '#As esta)lis+e$ 2 Cigure 2.X:arget =s+ a)un$an&e &+ange overtime mean 9<Z &on=$en&e intervalF.:wowa5 AN!QA 8or 199<G2001- time, # T0.0/<W site, # f 0.0<W time site, not signi=&ant. N j < er site. Crom D+ristie et al.200?$F.



@iodiversity Core



1NC @iodiversity Frontlineustralia has created the +orlds largest marine reserve to

solve the critical marine biodiversity – #lan not !ey and

international actors chec!

-UCN 1/ >nternational nion 8or Donservation o8 Nature, Australia &reatesworl$7s largest network o8 marine reserves,*, 121?12,+tt-www.iu&n.orga)outworkrogrammesmarine11/<9Australia&reatesworl$slargestnetworko8marinereservesF

>n Novem)er 2012 t+e Australian overnment announ&e$ t+e &reation o8 t+eworl$7s largest network o8 marine reserves. :+e government ro&laime$ 44 marinereserves a network, &overing 2.? million suare kilometres, a 8ull t+ir$ o8 Australia7so&ean territor5. :+e reserves are +ome to 4< o8 t+e worl$7s L w+ale an$ $ol+inse&ies, si; o8 t+e seven known se&ies o8 marine turtle, an$ 4,000 =s+ se&ies. :+egovernment re&eive$ suort 8rom over <00,000 Australians, w+o &ommente$

ositivel5 on t+e &reation o8 t+e network. :+e marine reserves will rote&t a$iversit5 o8 Australia7s o&ean e&os5stems, in&lu$ing ree8s an$ waters in t+e Doralea, ma%esti& seamounts oM t+e east &oast, t+e m5sterious $ee waters o8 t+eiamantina Cra&ture ]one an$ t+e waters o8 t+e reat Australian Big+t,* sai$ r.#aul in&lair, t+e (ealt+5 E&os5stems #rogramme 'anager 8or t+e AustralianDonservation Coun$ation. :+e announ&ement in&lu$es o&ean areas t+at +ar)orsome o8 t+e worl$7s ri&+est marine )io$iversit5 , an$ t+e resulting network will 8urt+er rote&t =s+ sto&ks an$ 8ragile an$ &riti&al marine environments, a&&or$ing to#ro8essor !ve (oeg+ul$)erg, t+e ire&tor o8 t+e lo)al D+ange >nstitute at t+eniversit5 o8 Yueenslan$.

Conservation fails to solve for biodiversity$#lan is insuRcient

:olden 1> A)igail, &orreson$ent 8or ail5 Beast, /2?14,

+tt-www.t+e$ail5)east.&omarti&les20140/2?reu)li&anso)amaso&eanrote&tionlanevi$en&eo8imerialresi$en&5.+tmlF

Durrentl5, a)out ? er&ent o8 t+e ..7 tuna &at&+ in t+e western an$ sout+ern#a&i=& &omes 8rom t+e area now un$er rote&tion, a&&or$ing to #ew D+arita)le

:rusts. Dongressman (astings +as &riti&iHe$ !)ama 8or &losing t+is area to tuna=s+ing , &autioning t+at t+is move will make t+e .. tuna @eet even less via)le,meaning t+at in t+e nottoo$istant 8uture all o8 Ameri&a7s tuna will )e &aug+t )58oreign vessels.* #aul alHell, a senior s&ientist wit+ t+e 3estern an$ Dentral #a&i=&Regional Cis+eries 'anagement Doun&il, e&+oe$ t+is in$ustr5&entri& aroa&+.

:+e islan$s [in t+e reserve alrea$5 +ave <0nauti&almile )oun$aries aroun$ t+emto rote&t all t+e &oral ree8 an$ s+allow water +a)itats, so t+e57re more t+ana$euatel5 rote&te$ alrea$5,* alHell tol$ :+e ail5 Beast. But 8or migrator5se&ies like tuna, +e argues, larges&ale o&ean reserves +ave little &onservationvalue, sin&e tuna siml5 swim )e5on$ t+e )oun$aries o8 t+e &lose$ areas to )e&aug+t )5 ot+er @eets. :+e reserve +as no ma%or &onservation )ene=ts, willenaliHe .. =s+ermen, an$ t+ere7s no net gain,* alHell &ontinue$. >t7s wort+noting t+at #ew D+arita)le :rusts, w+i&+ works on o&ean &onservation issues, +as

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/23/republicans-obama-s-ocean-protection-plan-evidence-of-imperial-presidency.html






&on$emne$ t+e 3estern an$ Dentral #a&i=& Regional Cis+eries 'anagement Doun&il8or its oor =s+eries ra&ti&es, w+i&+ it &laims are +astening over=s+ing in t+e#a&i=& region.

Study sho+s marine reserves alone dont solve biodiversity –

they dont address the bottom$u# #rocesses that lead tos#ecies e4tinction

Eones et al > eoMre5 #., 'ark >. '&Dormi&k, 'a5a rinivasan, an$ Janelle Q.Eagle, Resear&+ers o8 &+ool o8 'arine Biolog5 an$ Aua&ulture, Doral $e&linet+reatens =s+ )io$iversit5 in marine reserves,* 'a5 1, 2004F

:+e $ramati& &+ange in t+e a)un$an&e o8 almost all se&ies in$i&ates a +ases+i8tin ree8 =s+ &ommunit5 stru&ture in resonse to +a)itat $egra$ation an$ t+ein&reasing $ominan&e o8 a small roortion o8 t+e original se&ies ool. :+e&atastro+i& $e&line in t+e a)un$an&e o8 <0Z o8 t+e se&ies was not re$i&te$ 8rom

t+e initial snas+ot o8 t+eir e&olog5, )e&ause it aMe&te$ 8ar more t+an %ust &oral8ee$ing or

&oral$welling =s+es Cig. 1F. An anal5sis o8 =s+ settlement sites rovi$e$ t+e most likel5 e;lanation 8ort+e &ommunit5wi$e &+ange. e&ies varie$ on a &ontinuum o8 t+ose t+at onl5 ever settle$ onto live &oral su)stratato t+ose t+at never settle$ onto &oral Cig. 4F. A)out /<Z o8 =s+ se&ies settle$ onto live &oral in roortionssigni=&antl5 greater t+an e;e&te$ )e&ause o8 t+e average &overage o8 live &oral at t+ese times. Curt+ermore, t+emagnitu$e o8 &+ange in =s+ a)un$an&e was inversel5 &orrelate$ wit+ t+e roortion o8 %uveniles 8oun$ settling onlive &oral r T G0.<L, # f 0.0<F. 3it+ a 8ew e;&etions, se&ies t+at mainl5 settle into live &oral $e&line$, an$ t+oselargel5 re&ruiting to non&oral su)strata in&rease$ in a)un$an&e. Relations+i )etween t+e $ire&tion an$ magnitu$eo8 &+ange in =s+ a)un$an&e )etween 199L an$ 200?, an$ t+e roortion o8 all %uveniles o)serve$ to )e asso&iate$

wit+ live &oral at settlement. ettlement $ata were &olle&te$ in 1999 an$ 2000, w+en t+e ... Ree8 =s+&ommunities ma5 )e more &ontingent on t+eir un$erl5ing +a)itat t+an +asreviousl5 )een &onsi$ere$. !ur $ata suggests t+at t+is $een$en&e arises t+roug++a)itatlimite$ re&ruitment 1/, 21F, alt+oug+ a$ult mortalit5 t+roug+ $e&lining 8oo$ an$ s+elter ma5 also

)e imortant. :+e ima&t on se&ies in ree8 =s+ 8amilies less reliant on &oral ma5 )e &orreson$ingl5 less e;tremee.g., et+rini$ae an$ ut%ani$aeF. (owever, t+is &annot )e &on=rme$ until we know more a)out t+e settlement site

re8eren&es in t+ese grous. :+e ima&t on small se&ialiHe$ 8amilies e.g., o)ii$ae an$

Daran&ant+i$aeF ma5 )e even more $evastating. lo)al e;tin&tion ma5 )e imminent 8orsome &oral$welling go)ies wit+ restri&te$ geogra+i& ranges 22F. :+e entire &ara&ant+i$

8amil5 is &omrise$ o8 onl5 two o)ligate &oral$welling se&ies Cig. 1F, )ot+ o8 w+i&+ are now e;tremel5 rare at ourstu$5 sites. :+e magnitu$e o8 t+e $e&line in &oral &over in Kim)e Ba5 is not at5i&al o8 ot+er geogra+i& lo&ationsw+ere &oral +as also )een largel5 rela&e$ )5 tur=ng algae 1G<F. :+e ima&ts o8 &oralalgal +ases+i8ts on =s+&ommunities in ot+er regions ma5 +ave )een similar. (owever, alt+oug+ s+ortterm eMe&ts on &oral8ee$ing =s+es+ave )een note$ 2?F, t+e longterm eMe&ts on ree8 =s+ &ommunities +ave not reviousl5 )een $es&ri)e$. !urresults suggest t+at ree8s wit+out &orals will no longer suort $iverse =s+ 8aunas )ut rat+er will )e numeri&all5$ominate$ )5 a small su)set o8 se&ies re8erring algal or ru))le su)strata. Alt+oug+ t+ere is &onsi$era)leotential 8or re&over5 8rom lo&al $istur)an&e t+roug+ larval $isersal, t+e satial e;tent o8 +a)itat $evastation

aears to )e e;an$ing rat+er t+an &ontra&ting 4, <F. >8 t+is tren$ &annot )e reverse$ )5management a&tions, se&ies wit+ restri&te$ $isersal or small geogra+i& ranges

will )e t+reatene$ )5 e;tin&tion 24G2/F. Alt+oug+ t+ere is a large )o$5 o8 evi$en&e t+at in$i&ates t+atmarine reserves &an )e an eMe&tive management strateg5 8or rote&ting marine )io$iversit5 /GF, t+ere is agrowing re&ognition t+at su&+ areas &annot rote&t ree8s 8rom larges&ale ollutionor glo)al warming 4, 2LG?0F. :+us, alt+oug+ marine reserves are ne&essar5 to &ontrolt+e to$own* ima&t o8 +uman re$ation, t+e5 must )e &om)ine$ wit+management strategies t+at 8un$amentall5 a$$ress )ottomu* ro&esses t+ataear to )e a more likel5 at+ to e;tin&tion.

http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/topics/environment

http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/topics/environment



6eserves cant #romote ecosystem recovery – alt causes

6osen, &ien&e Dommuni&ation #rogram at t+e niversit5 o8 Dali8ornia anta DruH,

11

['eg+an , 'ongaBa5, Resear&+ers &+allenge i$ea t+at marine reserves romote

&oral re&over5*, Novem)er 9, 2011, +tt-news.monga)a5.&om20111109u&s&VrosenVree8s.+tml, '

Cles+5 w+orls o8 t+i&k )rown algae )lanket t+e on&evi)rant &orals in lover7s Ree8,BeliHe. A&&or$ing to a &ontroversial stu$5 u)lis+e$ August 14 in t+e %ournal DoralRee8s, a $e&a$e o8 marine reserve rote&tion +as 8aile$ to +el t+ese $amage$Dari))ean &orals re&over. (ealt+5 ree8s $een$ on +er)ivorous arrot=s+es togo))le u vast algal )looms. 3+en =s+ing ressures overw+elm t+ese seawee$graHing se&ies, toug+ &arets o8 ro5 algae &+oke new &oral growt+. Resear&+ +ass+own t+at marine reserves wit+ strong 6notake7 en8or&ementXarme$ atrols, &lear)oun$aries an$ $ail5 surveillan&eX&an rote&t +er)ivorous =s+ oulations.(owever, it7s less &lear w+et+er t+ese sa8eguar$s also +el &orals )oun&e )a&k.

Brain &orals oM t+e &oast o8 BeliHe &an grow u to / 8eet +ig+. #+oto )5- R+ett A.Butler >n 2002009, resear&+ers 8rom t+e niversit5 o8 'iami &ounte$ +er)ivorous=s+es an$ measure$ &oral growt+ at L reserve$ an$ =s+e$ sites t+roug+outlover7s Ree8. :+en, t+e5 &omare$ t+eir results to $ata &olle&te$ in 1991999.

:+e5 s+owe$ t+at t+e reserves ma$e no $iMeren&e in =s+ oulations or &oral+ealt+. 'arine s&ientist an$ lea$ aut+or Brittan5 (untington t+inks it7s imortant to&+allenge t+e assumtion t+at marine reserves invaria)l5 romote &oral re&over5.3e nee$ to $o a )etter %o) o8 un$erstan$ing w+ere reserves work an$ w+ere t+e5$on7t,* s+e tol$ monga)a5.&om. :+e 8ailures are %ust as imortant to +ear as t+esu&&ess stories.* But t+e =n$ings at lover7s Ree8 s+oul$n7t &ount as a 8ailure,&onten$s #eter 'um)5, a marine e&ologist at t+e niversit5 o8 Yueenslan$ in

Australia. 'um)5 u)lis+e$ a 2010 aer in #o !NE &on&lu$ing t+at marinereserves $o +el Dari))ean &orals re&over. Doral ree8s oM t+e &oast o8 BeliHe are+ome to t+ousan$s o8 $iMerent se&ies, su&+ as t+is urle sea anemone. #+oto )5-R+ett A. Butler >8 5ou7re going to stu$5 marine reserve ima&ts on &oral, t+en 5ounee$ a marine reserve t+at is a&tuall5 $oing somet+ing,* 'um)5 sai$ in aninterview wit+ monga)a5.&om. Be&ause t+e reserve at lover7s $i$n7t aMe&t =s+num)ers, +e7s not surrise$ t+at &orals $i$n7t re&over. (e t+inks arrot=s+ oa&+ersma5 still )e lun$ering reserves, $esite )ee8e$u en8or&ement )5 t+e BeliHeangovernment. Bot+ 'um)5 an$ (untington a&knowle$ge$ t+at $iMerent ree8environments &oul$ a&&ount 8or t+e $iMerent stu$5 out&omes- +e looke$ in t+eBa+amas, s+e in BeliHe. (owever, 'um)5 t+inks it7s mislea$ing to &on&lu$e t+at

reserves $on7t )ene=t &orals. (e sai$ environmental stressors $uring t+e stu$5,su&+ as +urri&anes an$ unusuall5 warm waters, &oul$ +ave o)s&ure$ &oral re&over5at lover7s. 'um)5 t+inks (untington7s aer mig+t sen$ a 8alse message t+atmarine reserve s&ien&e is murk5 or in&onsistent. But (untington )elieves lover7s isan i$eal la&e to $o&ument t+at reserves &an work 8or some se&ies like &on&+ an$lo)sterF w+ile not 8or ot+ers like =s+ an$ &oralsF. +e envisions a multironge$management aroa&+ to +el Dari))ean &orals &oe wit+ environmental an$+umanin@i&te$ +aHar$s. :+is mig+t mean merging tra$itional strategies wit+ more

http://news.mongabay.com/2011/1109-ucsc_rosen_reefs.html






e;erimental i$eas, su&+ as +5si&all5 translanting +ealt+5 &orals onto $amage$ree8s. Alrea$5, t+e a)sen&e o8 algaemun&+ing =s+ at lover7s +as s+i8te$ t+e)alan&e o8 &oral se&ies 8rom t+e massive )roa$&asters* t+at tower a)ove t+eo&ean @oor an$ )uil$ t+e 8ramework o8 t+e ree8 to t+e runt5 )roo$ers* t+at sroutlike un$erwater wee$s. +rim, star=s+, an$ t+ousan$s o8 ot+er sea$welling

se&ies $een$ on &olossal ree8 stru&tures 8or +ousing an$ meals. >8 we lose our)ig )uil$ers,* (untington sai$, +ow &an we e;e&t to +ave +ealt+5, stru&turall5&omle; ree8s in t+e Dari))ean*

)urn – reserves ma!e ecosystems less resilient to climate

change

Cote et al, #ro8essor o8 :roi&al 'arin E&olog5 at imon Craser niversit5, 10

[>sa)elle, imon Craser niversit5, 'arine reserves 8ail to rote&t &oral ree8s*,+tt-www.s8u.&aar&+iveamrme$iaVreleasesme$iaVreleasesVar&+ivesmarinereserves8ailtorote&t&oralree8s.+tml, August 4, 2010, '

'arine reserves not onl5 8ail to give troi&al ree8s a =g+ting &+an&e against &limate&+ange )ut ma5 also in&rease t+eir vulnera)ilit5 to it a&&or$ing to imon Craserniversit5 resear&+ers. >n a aer re&entl5 u)lis+e$ in :+e #u)li& i)rar5 o8 &ien&eBiolog5, troi&al marine )iologists >sa)elle Dt an$ Emil5 arling $isute t+e wi$el5+el$ t+eor5 t+at imosing rote&tive measures, su&+ as =s+ing )ans an$ ollution&ontrol, +els &oral ree8s &oe wit+ &limate &+ange. Dt is glo)all5 re&ogniHe$ as aioneer in using metaanal5sis mass s&ienti=& $ata anal5sisF to &reate a )ig i&tureo8 t+e 8ate o8 t+e worl$7s &oral ree8s. 'arine reserves $o not revent ma%or &oralloss asso&iate$ wit+ )lea&+ing an$ &limate &+ange,* sa5s Dt, w+o aro;imatest+e num)er o8 reserves worl$wi$e at /,000. >n man5 &ases, rote&te$ ree8s seemto )e even more vulnera)le t+an unrote&te$ ones.* Dt an$ arling )elieve t+at

marine reserves ma5 8oster t+e growt+ o8 &oral se&ies t+at are e;tremel5 sensitiveto )lea&+ing, a t5e o8 tissue loss t+at kills &orals. :+e &orals t+at o&&ur outsi$e o8reserves seem to tolerate temerature stress an$ )lea&+ing )etter, likel5 )e&auset+e5 are use$ to living in a stress8ul environment,* a$$s arling. :+is means t+atinstea$ o8 in&reasing ree8 resilien&e to &limate &+ange, marine reserves ma5a&tuall5 in&rease ree8 vulnera)ilit5 )5 rote&ting temeraturesensitive se&ies.*

lt cause – global +arming is the greatest cause of biodiversity

loss

@utler, Australian e&oso&ialist, 1<

[imon, Dlimate U Daitalism, !&eans on t+e )rink o8 e&ologi&al &ollase*, !&to)er14, 201?, +tt-&limatean$&aitalism.&om201?1014o&eans)rinke&ologi&al&ollase, '

'arine s&ientists sa5 t+e +ealt+ o8 t+e o&eans is in &risis. A 6$ea$l5 trio7 o8 emissionima&ts ma5 +ave alrea$5 initiate$ a mass e;tin&tion event, a mass $ieoM o8se&ies an$ &atastro+i& loss o8 )io$iversit5. >n late etem)er, man5 mainstreamme$ia outlets gave su)stantial &overage to t+e N7s new reort on t+e &limate

http://www.sfu.ca/archive-pamr/media_releases/media_releases_archives/marine-reserves-fail-to-protect-coral-reefs.html


http://climateandcapitalism.com/2013/10/14/oceans-brink-ecological-collapse/








&+ange &risis, w+i&+ sai$ t+e Eart+7s &limate is warming 8aster t+an at an5 oint int+e ast /< million 5ears an$ t+at +uman a&tivit5 is t+e &ause. >t was $isaointing,t+oug+ not surrising, t+at news reorts $rie$ u a8ter onl5 a 8ew $a5s. But anot+erma%or s&ienti=& stu$5, release$ a week later an$ in&lu$ing even graver warnings o8a glo)al environmental &atastro+e, was mostl5 ignore$ altoget+er. :+e marine

s&ientists t+at release$ t+e tate o8 t+e !&ean 201? reort on !&to)er ? gave t+estarkest o8 ossi)le warnings a)out t+e ima&t o8 &ar)on ollution on t+e o&eans-3e are entering an unknown territor5 o8 marine e&os5stem &+ange, an$ e;osingorganisms to intolera)le evolutionar5 ressure. :+e ne;t mass e;tin&tion event ma5+ave alrea$5 )egun. eveloe$, in$ustrialise$ +uman so&iet5 is living a)ove t+e&arr5ing &aa&it5 o8 t+e Eart+, an$ t+e imli&ations 8or t+e o&ean, an$ t+us 8or all+umans, are +uge.* Reort &oaut+or, #ro8essor Ale; Rogers o8 omervilleDollege,!;8or$, sai$ on !&to)er ?- :+e +ealt+ o8 t+e o&ean is siralling $ownwar$s 8armore rai$l5 t+an we +a$ t+oug+t. 3e are seeing greater &+ange, +aening 8aster,an$ t+e eMe&ts are more imminent t+an reviousl5 anti&iate$. :+e situation s+oul$)e o8 t+e gravest &on&ern to ever5one sin&e ever5one will )e aMe&te$ )5 &+anges int+e a)ilit5 o8 t+e o&ean to suort li8e on Eart+.* :+e o&ean is )5 8ar t+e Eart+7slargest &ar)on sink an$ +as a)sor)e$ most o8 t+e e;&ess &ar)on ollution ut intot+e atmos+ere 8rom )urning 8ossil 8uels. :+e tate o8 t+e !&ean 201? reortwarne$ t+at t+is is making $e&isive &+anges to t+e o&ean itsel8, &ausing a $ea$l5trio o8 ima&ts* G a&i$i=&ation, o&ean warming an$ $eo;5genation a 8all in o&eano;5gen levelsF. :+e reort sai$- 'ost, i8 not all, o8 t+e Eart+7s =ve ast masse;tin&tion events +ave involve$ at least one o8 t+ese t+ree main s5mtoms o8glo)al &ar)on ertur)ations [or $isrutions, all o8 w+i&+ are resent in t+e o&eanto$a5.* Cossil re&or$s in$i&ate =ve mass e;tin&tion events +ave taken la&e in t+eEart+7s +istor5. :+e )iggest o8 t+ese G t+e en$ #ermian mass e;tin&tion G wie$ outas mu&+ as 9<Z o8 marine li8e a)out 2<0 million 5ears ago. Anot+er, 8ar )etterknown mass e;tin&tion event wie$ out t+e $inosaurs a)out // million 5ears agoan$ is t+oug+t to +ave )een &ause$ )5 a +uge meteor strike. A 8urt+er )ig se&iese;tin&tion took la&e << million 5ears ago. Known as t+e #aleo&eneEo&ene t+ermalma;imum #E:'F, it was a erio$ o8 rai$ glo)al warming asso&iate$ wit+ a +ugerelease o8 green+ouse gases. :o$a57s rate o8 &ar)on release,* sai$ t+e tate o8 t+e!&ean 201?, is at least 10 times 8aster t+an t+at w+i&+ re&e$e$ t+e [#E:'.*[1!&ean a&i$i=&ation is a sign t+at t+e in&rease in D!2 is surassing t+e o&ean7s&aa&it5 to a)sor) it. :+e more a&i$ t+e o&ean )e&omes, t+e )igger t+reat it osesto marine li8e G ese&iall5 sea &reatures t+at 8orm t+eir skeletons or s+ells 8rom&al&ium &ar)onate su&+ as &rusta&eans, mollus&s, &orals an$ lankton. :+e reortre$i&ts e;tremel5 serious &onseuen&es 8or o&ean li8e* i8 t+e release o8 D!2 $oesnot 8all, in&lu$ing t+e e;tin&tion o8 some se&ies an$ $e&line in )io$iversit5overall.* A&i$i=&ation is taking la&e 8astest at +ig+er latitu$es, )ut overall t+ereort sa5s geologi&al re&or$s in$i&ate t+at t+e &urrent a&i$i=&ation is unarallele$in at least t+e last ?00 million 5ears*. !&ean warming is t+e se&on$ element in t+e$ea$l5 trio. Average o&ean temeratures +ave risen )5 0./D in t+e ast 100 5ears.As t+e o&ean gets warmer still, it will +el trigger &riti&al &limate tiing oints t+atwill warm t+e entire lanet even 8aster, +urtling it 8ar )e5on$ t+e &limate in w+i&+to$a57s li8e +as evolve$. !&ean warming will a&&elerate t+e $eat+ siral o8 olar seai&e an$ risks t+e in&rease$ venting o8 t+e green+ouse gas met+ane 8rom t+e Ar&ti&



sea)e$*, t+e reort sa5s. !ngoing o&ean warming will also wreak +avo& on marineli8e. :+e reort ro%e&ts t+e loss o8 /0Z o8 resent )io$iversit5 o8 e;loite$ marineli8e an$ inverte)rates, in&lu$ing numerous lo&al e;tin&tions.* Ea&+ $e&a$e, =s+ aree;e&te$ to migrate )etween ?0 kilometres to 1?0 kilometres towar$s t+e oles,an$ live ?.< metres $eeer un$erwater, lea$ing to a 40Z 8all in =s+ &at&+ otential

in troi&al regions. :+e reort sa5s- All t+ese &+anges will +ave massive e&onomi&an$ 8oo$ se&urit5 &onseuen&es, not least 8or t+e =s+ing in$ustr5 an$ t+ose w+o$een$ on it.* :+e &om)ine$ eMe&ts o8 a&i$i=&ation an$ o&ean warming will alsoseal t+e 8ate o8 t+e worl$7s &oral ree8s, lea$ing to t+eir terminal an$ rai$ $e&line*)5 20<0. Australia7s reat Barrier Ree8 an$ Dari))ean ea ree8s will likel5 s+i8t 8rom&oral $omination to algal $omination.* :+e reort sa5s t+e glo)al target to limit t+eaverage temerature rise to 2D, w+i&+ was a$ote$ at t+e Doen+agen N &limate&on8eren&e in 2009, is not suO&ient 8or &oral ree8s to survive. ower targets s+oul$)e urgentl5 ursue$.* eo;5genation G t+e t+ir$ &omonent o8 t+e $ea$l5 trio G isrelate$ to o&ean warming an$ to +ig+ levels o8 nutrient runoM into t+e o&ean 8romsewerage an$ agri&ulture. :+e reort sa5s overall o&ean o;5gen levels, w+i&+ +ave$e&line$ &onsistentl5 8or t+e ast =ve $e&a$es, &oul$ 8all )5 1Z to LZ )5 2100. Butt+is =gure $oes not in$i&ate t+e )ig rise in t+e num)er o8 low o;5gen $ea$ Hones,*w+i&+ +as $ou)le$ ever5 $e&a$e sin&e t+e 19/0s. 3+ereas a&i$i=&ation mostima&ts uon smaller marine li8e, $eo;5genation +its larger animals, su&+ as 'arlinan$ :una, +ar$est. :+e reort &autions t+at t+e &om)ine$ ima&t o8 t+is $ea$l5 triowill +ave &as&a$ing &onseuen&es 8or marine )iolog5, in&lu$ing altere$ 8oo$ we)s$5nami&s an$ t+e e;ansion o8 at+ogens [&ausing $isease.* >t also warns t+at ita$$s to ot+er )ig ro)lems aMe&ting t+e o&ean, su&+ as &+emi&al ollution an$over=s+ing u to L0Z o8 t+e worl$7s =s+ sto&k is over=s+e$F. 3e ma5 alrea$5+ave entere$ into an e;tin&tion erio$ an$ not 5et realise$ it. 3+at is &ertain is t+att+e &urrent &ar)on ertur)ations will +ave +uge imli&ations 8or +umans, an$ ma5well )e t+e most imortant &+allenge 8a&e$ sin&e t+e +omini$s evolve$. :+e urgentnee$ to re$u&e t+e ressure o8 all o&ean stressors, ese&iall5 D!2 emissions, is wellsignoste$.*

S#ecies ada#t and migrate

)hom#son et al 0' [>an, Dana$ian Corest ervi&e, Bren$an 'a&ke5, :+e

Australian National niversit5, :+e Cenner &+ool o8 Environment an$ o&iet5,Dollege o8 'e$i&ine, Biolog5 an$ Environment, teven '&Nult5, A Corestervi&e, Ale; 'osseler, Dana$ian Corest ervi&e, 2009, e&retariat o8 t+eDonvention on Biologi&al iversit5 Corest Resilien&e, Bio$iversit5, an$ DlimateD+ange* Donvention on Biologi&al iversit5 3

3+ile resilien&e &an )e attri)ute$ to man5 levels o8 organiHation o8 )io$iversit5, t+egeneti& &omosition o8 se&ies is t+e most 8un$amental . 'ole&ular genet i&$iversit5 wit+in a se&ies, se&ies $iversit5 wit+in a 8oreste$ &ommunit5, an$&ommunit5 ore&os5stem $iversit5 a&ross a lan$s&ae an$ )ioregion reresente;ressions o8 )iologi&al $iversit5 at $iMerent s&ales. :+e )asis o8 all e;ressions o8)iologi&al $iversit5 is t+e genot5i& variation 8oun$ in oulations. :+e in$ivi$ualst+at &omrise oulations at ea&+ level o8 e&ologi&al organiHation are su)%e&t tonatural se le&tion an$ &ontri)ute to t+e a$ative &aa&it5 or re silien&e o8 tree



se&ies an$ 8orest e&os5stems 'ull ertar&k et al. 200<F. iversit5 at ea&+ o8t+ese levels +as 8ostere$ natural an$ arti=&ialF regeneration o8 8orest e&os5stemsan$ 8a&ilitate$ t+eir a$atation to $ramati& &limate &+ange s t+at o&&urre$ $uring t+e

uaternar5 erio$ review )5- e(a5es et al. 2000FW t+is $iversit5 must )e maintaine$ in t+e 8a&e o8 anti&i ate$&+anges 8rom ant+roogeni& &limate warming. eneti& $iversit5 e.g., a$$itive geneti& varian&eF wit+in a se&ies isimortant )e&ause it is t+e )asis 8or t+e natural sele&tion o8 genot5es wit+in ou lations an$ se&ies as t+e5reson$ or a$at to en vironmental &+anges Cis+er 19?0, #itelka 19, #ease et al. 199, Burger an$ 5n&+ 199<,Bur$on an$ :+rall, 2001, Etterson 2004, Reus&+ et al. 200<, &+a)erg et al. 200F. :+e otential 8or evolutionar5&+ange +as )een $emonstrate$ in numerous long term rogrammes )ase$ on arti=&ial sele&tion Cal &oner 199F,an$ geneti& strategies 8or re8orestation in t+e resen&e o8 rai$ &limate &+ange must 8o&us on maintaining se&ies$iversit5 an$ geneti& $iversi t5 wit+in se&ies e$ig an$ KitHmiller 1992F. >n t+e 8a&e o8 rai$ environmental

&+ange, it is imortant to un$erstan$ t+at t+e geneti& $iversit5 an$ a$a tive &aa&it5 o88oreste$ e&os5stems $een$s largel5 on in situ geneti& variation wit+in ea&+oulation o8 a se&ies Bra$s+aw 1991F. #oulations e;ose$ to a rate o8 environmental &+ange e;&ee$ing

t+e rate at w+i&+ oulations &an a$at, or $iserse, ma5 )e $oome$ to e;tin&tion 5n&+ an$ an$e 199?, Burgeran$ 5n&+ 199<F. eneti& $iversit5 $eter mines t+e range o8 8un$amental e&o+5siologi&al toleran&es o8 a se&ies.>t governs interse&i=& &ometitive intera&tions, w+i&+, toget+er wit+ $isersal me&+anisms, &onstitute t+e

8un$amental $e terminants o8 otential se&ies resonses to &+ange #ease et al. 199, (alin 199LF. >n t+e ast ,lants +ave reson$e$ to $ramati& &+anges in &limate )ot+ t+roug+ a$atation an$

migration avis an$ +aw 2001F. :+e &aa&it5 8or long$istan&e migration o8 lants)5 see$ $isersal is arti&ularl5 imortant in t+e event o8 rai$ environmental&+ange. 'ost, an$ ro)a)l5 all, se&ies are &aa)le o8 long$istan&e see$ $isersal, $esite mor+ologi&al $isersal s5n$romes t+at woul$ in$i&ate mor+ologi&ala$atations rimaril5 8or s+ort$istan&e $isersal Dw5ner an$ 'a&on al$ 19/,(iggins et al. 200?F. Assessments o8 mean migration rates 8oun$ no signi=&ant$iMeren&es )e tween win$ an$ animal $iserse$ lants 3ilkinson 199L, (iggins etal. 200?F. ong$istan&e migration &an also )e strongl5 in@uen&e$ )5 +a)itatsuita)il it5 (iggins an$ Ri&+ar$son 1999F suggesting t+at rai$ migration ma5)e&ome more 8reuent an$ vis i)le wit+ rai$ &+anges in +a)itat suita)ilit5 un$ers&enarios o8 rai$ &limate &+ange. :+e $is&rean&5 )etween estimate$ an$o)serve$ migration rates $uring re&oloniHation o8 nort+ern temerate 8orests8ollowing t+e retreat o8 gla&iers &an )e a&&ounte$ 8or )5 t+e un$erestimation o8long$istan&e $iser sal rates an$ events Brunet an$ von !+eim) 199, Dlark199, Dain et al. 199, 2000F. Nevert+eless, &on&erns ersist t+at otentialmigration an$ a$ atation rates o8 man5 tree se&ies ma5 not )e a)le to kee a&ewit+ ro%e&te$ glo)al warming avis 199, (untle5 1991, 5er 199<, Dolling+am etal. 199/, 'al&olm et al. 2002F. (owever, t+ese mo$els re8er to 8un$amental ni&+esan$ generall5 ignore t+e e&ologi&al intera&tions t+at also govern se&ies $istri)utions.

lt cause – climate

)hom#son et al 0' [>an, Dana$ian Corest ervi&e, Bren$an 'a&ke5, :+e

Australian National niversit5, :+e Cenner &+ool o8 Environment an$ o&iet5,Dollege o8 'e$i&ine, Biolog5 an$ Environment, teven '&Nult5, A Corestervi&e, Ale; 'osseler, Dana$ian Corest ervi&e, 2009, e&retariat o8 t+eDonvention on Biologi&al iversit5 Corest Resilien&e, Bio$iversit5, an$ DlimateD+ange* Donvention on Biologi&al iversit5 3

uerimose$ on t+e man5 ot+er ant+roogeni& ima&ts on 8orest e&os5stemsnote$ a)ove is +uman8or&e$ glo)al &limate &+ange. Dlimate +as a ma%or in@ue n&e



on rates o8 +otos5nt+esis an$ resiration 3oo$war$ et al. 199<, Kueers et al.2004, aw et al. 200LF, an$ on ot+er 8orest ro&esses, a&ting t+roug+ temerature,ra$iation, an$ moisture regimes over me$ium an$ long time erio$s. Dlimate an$weat+er &on$itions also $ire&tl5 in@uen&e s+orterterm ro&esses in 8orests, su&+ as8reuen&5 o8 storms an$ wil$=res, +er)ivor5, an$ se&ies migration un$ersen an$

(olling 2002F. As t+e glo)al &limate &+anges, 8orest e&os5stems will &+ange)e&ause se&ies7 +5siologi&al toleran&es ma5 )e e;&ee$e$ an$ t+e rates o8)io+5si&al 8orest ro&esses will )e altere$ !lesen et al. 200L, Kellomaki et al.200, 'al+i et al. 200F. Corests &an )e use8ull5 &on&eive$

3nvironment im#acts are e4aggerated

:ordon '2 [Ri&+ar$, ro8essor o8 mineral e&onomi&s at #enns5lvania tate

niversit5, E&orealism E;ose$,* Regulation, 199<,+tt-www.&ato.orgu)sregulationregv1n?reg1n?rea$ings.+tml 3

Easter)rook^s argument is t+at alt+oug+ environmental ro)lems $eserve attention, t+eenvironmental movement +as e;aggerate$ t+e t+reats an$ ignore$ evi$en&e o8

imrovement. (is $is&ontent &auses +im to a$ot an$ in&essantl5 emlo5 t+e e%orativel5 inten$e$ an$irritatingF s+ort+an$ enviros to $es&ri)e t+e lea$ing environmental organiHations an$ t+eir a$mirers. (e rooses

an$ overusesan euall5 in8eli&itous alternative +rase, e&orealism, t+at seems to mean t+at mostenvironmental initiatives &an )e %usti=te$ )5 more mo$erate arguments . iven t+e

mass, range, an$ $e8e&ts o8 t+e )ook, an5 review o8 reasona)le lengt+ must )e sele&tive. Easter)rook^s &ritiue)egins wit+ an overview o8 environmentalism 8rom a glo)al erse&tive. (e t+en turns to a mu&+ longer almost<00 ageF surve5 o8 man5 se&i=& environmental issues. :+e overview se&tion is a s+orter, more $evastating&riti&ism, )ut it is also more se&ulative t+an t+e surve5 o8 se&i=& issues. >n essen&e, t+e overview argument is

t+at +uman ima&ts on t+e environment are minor, easil5 &orre&ta)le in@uen&es on aworl$ aMe&te$ )5 8ar more ower8ul 8or&es. :+at is a more enetrating &riti&ism t+an t5i&all5

aears in works e;ressing sketi&ism a)out environmentalism. Easter)rook notes t+at mankin$^s eMe&tson nature long re$ate in$ustrialiHation or t+e w+ite &oloniHation o8 Ameri&a, )ut

still +ave +a$ onl5 minor ima&ts. 3e are t+en remin$e$ o8 t+e vast, o8ten +ig+l5$estru&tive &+anges t+at o&&ur naturall5 an$ t+e re&uerative ower o8 naturals5stems.

http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv18n3/reg18n3-readings.html

http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv18n3/reg18n3-readings.html



/NC Aont Solve @iodiversity7arine reserves dont hel# biodiversity and even have

negative im#acts for biodiversity – their studies are Ia+ed

%ilborn >$1/$1> J6ay, 7arine biologist, *sheries scientist, and #rofessor of

aquatic and *shery science, rotecting 7arine @iodiversity +ith Ne+Conservation, )he Nature Conservancy, #ril 1/, /01>,

htt#=99blog.nature.org9science9/01>90>91/9nature$longread$#rotecting$marine$biodiversity$ne+$conservation$ray$hilborn9 accessed &9/>91>L

:+e rote&te$area aroa&+ in marine &onservation +as two ma%or $isa$vantages. :+e =rst ro)lem is eMort $isla&ement . 3+en an area is &lose$ to =s+ing, t+evessels move elsew+ere, a$$ing =s+ing ressure to some areas t+at otentiall5euals or outweig+s t+e )ene=ts seen in t+e rote&te$ areas #astoors et al. 2000F.(amilton et al. 2010F 8oun$ t+at a)un$an&e o8 target se&ies $e&line$ outsi$ereserves an$ in&rease$ insi$e reserves, 5iel$ing no net in&rease in a)un$an&e. :+ese&on$ )io$iversit5 ro)lem is a re$u&tion in t+e total sustaina)le 5iel$ o8 =s+

sto&ks w+en marine reserves are large. :+is loss will almost &ertainl5 )e ma$e u)5 some ot+er 8orm o8 8oo$ ro$u&tion wit+ negative )io$iversit5 &onseuen&es(il)orn 201?F. At t+e e;treme, i8 lost =s+ ro$u&tion is &omensate$ )5 &uttingrain8orest to grow &ros or &attle, we &an )e ver5 sure t+at t+e total )io$iversit5&onseuen&es will )e negative.



/NC da#t and 7igrateChanges in biodiversity are both inevitable and unsto##able

your im#acts are em#irically dis#roven.

Aodds /! Xonal$ J. o$$s is t+e 8ormer resi$ent o8 t+e Nort+ #a&i=& Resear&+

Boar$, '.. an$ #.E. :+e '5t+ o8 Bio$iversit5,* #u)lis+e$ in 2000, Availa)le !nlineat +tt-www.$o&sto&.&om$o&s9L4?/<?:(E'S:(!CB>!>QER>:SF

Bio$iversit5 is a &orner stone o8 t+e environmental movement. But t+ere is no roo8 t+at )io$iversit5 isimortant to t+e environment. omet+ing wit+out )asis in s&ienti=& 8a&t is &alle$ a '5t+. ets e;amine

)io$iversit5 t+roug+ out t+e +istor5 o8 t+e eart+. :+e eart+ +as )een a aroun$ 8or a)out 4 )illion 5ears. i8e $i$ not

$evelo until a)out <00 million 5ears later. :+us 8or t+e =rst <00 million 5ears )io $iversit5 wasHero. :+e lanet some+ow survive$ t+is la&k o8 )io$iversit5 . Cor t+e ne;t ? )illion 5ears, t+e

onl5 li8e on t+e lanet was mi&ro)ial an$ not $iverse. :+us, t+e =rst une;laina)le 8a&t ist+at t+e eart+ e;iste$ 8or ?.< )illion 5ears, L.<Z o8 its e;isten&e, wit+out)io$iversit5. omew+ere aroun$ <00 million 5ears ago li8e )egan to $iversi85 an$ multile &elle$ se&ies

aeare$. Be&ause t+ese se&ies were artiall5 &omose$ o8 sol$ material t+e5 le8t )etter geologi& re&or$s, an$ t+e

num)er o8 se&ies an$ genera &oul$ )e &ataloge$ an$ &ounte$. :+e num)er o8 genera on t+e lanet is a in$i&ationo8 t+e )io$iversit5 o8 t+e lanet. Cigure 1 is a lot o8 t+e num)er o8 genera on t+e lanet over t+e last <<0 million

5ears. :+e little )la&k line outsi$e o8 t+e le8t e$ge o8 t+e gra+ is 10 million 5ears. Noti&e t+e le8t en$ o8 t+is

gra+. Bio$iversit5 +as never )een +ig+er t+an it is to$a 5. Noti&e ne;t t+at at leastten times )io$iversit5 8ell rai$l5W none o8 t+ese e;treme re$u&tions in )io$iversit5were &ause$ )5 +umans. Aroun$ 2<0 million 5ears ago t+e num)er o8 genera was re$u&e < er&ent 8rom

a)out 1200 to aroun$ 200, )5 an5 $e=nition a signi=&ant re$u&tion in )io$iversit5. Now noti&e t+at a8ter t+ise;tin&tion a stee an$ rai$ rise o8 )io$iversit5. >n 8a&t, i8 5ou look &losel5 at t+e&urve, 5ou will =n$ t+at ever5 masse;tin&tion was 8ollowe$ )5 a massive in&reasein )io$iversit5. 3+5 was t+at o 5ou suose it +a$ an5t+ing to $o wit+ t+e num)er environmental ni&+es

availa)le 8or e;loitation >8 5ou $o, 5ou are rig+t. E;tin&tions are ne&essar5 8or &reation. Ea&+ time a

mass e;tin&tion o&&urs t+e worl$ is =lle$ wit+ new an$ )ettera$ate$ se&ies. :+at is t+e

wa5 evolution works, its &alle$ survival o8 t+e =ttest . :+ose se&ies t+at &oul$ not a$ate$ to

t+e &+anging worl$ &on$itions siml5 $isaeare$ an$ )etter se&ies evolve$. (ow eO&ient is t+at :+ose t+at

&oul$ a$at to &+ange &ontinue$ to t+rive. Cor e;amle, t+e &o&kroa&+ an$ t+e s+ark +ave )een aroun$

well over ?00 million 5ears. :+ere is a air to $raw to, two su&&ess8ul se&ies t+at an5 &reator woul$ )e rou$ to

ro$u&e. :o $ate t+ese &reatures +ave su&&ess8ul survive$ si; e;tin&tions, wit+out t+e ai$ o8+umans or t+e E#A. Now noti&e t+at onl5 on&e in t+e last <00 million 5ears $i$ li8e ever e;&ee$ 1<00 genera,

an$ t+at was in t+e mi$$le o8 t+e Dreta&eous #erio$ aroun$ 100 million 5ears ago, w+en t+e $inosaurs e;lo$e$ ont+e lanet. !)viousl5, )io$iversit5 +as a )a$ si$e. :+e $ire&t result o8 t+is e;losion in )io$iversit5 was t+ee;tin&tion o8 t+e $inosaurs t+at 8ollowe$ 4< million 5ears later at t+e K: )oun$ar5. >t is interesting to note, t+at at

t+e en$ o8 t+e e;tin&tion t+e num)er o8 genera +a$ returne$ to t+e 1<00 level almost e;a&tl5. #resentl5)io$iversit5 is at an all time +ig+ an$ +as again 8ar e;&ee$e$ t+e 1<00 genera level.Are we over $ue 8or anot+er e;tin&tion A &loser look at t+e K: e;tin&tion /< million 5ears ago

reveals at least t+ree t+ings. Cirst t+e 1<00 genera t+at remaine$ +a$ asse$ t+e test o8 environmental&omati)ilit5 an$ remaine$ on t+e lanet. :+is was not an a&&i$ent. e&on$, t+ese e;tin&tions 8ree$ ni&+es 8oro&&uation )5 )ettera$ate$ se&ies. :+e remaining genera now 8a&e$ an environment wit+ +un$re$s o8t+ousan$s o8 va&ant ni&+es. :+ir$, it onl5 took a)out 1< million 5ears to re=ll all o8 t+ose ni&+es an$ &omletel5rela&e$ t+e $inosaurs, wit+ new an$ )etter se&ies. >n t+is &onte;t, a )etter se&ies is )5 $e=nition one t+at ismore su&&ess8ul in $ealing wit+ a &+anging environment. 'an5 o8 t+ose genera t+at survive$ t+e K: e;tin&tion wereearl5 mammals, a more so+isti&ate$ &lass o8 li8e t+at +a$ $eveloe$ new an$ )etter wa5s o8 8a&ing t+eenvironment. :+ese genera were now 8ree to e;an$ an$ $iversi85 wit+out t+e resen&es o8 t+e li8e $ominating$inosaurs. :+us, as a $ire&t result o8 t+is mass e;tin&tion +umans are aroun$ to $is&uss t+e &onseuen&es o8&+ange. >8 t+e E#A +a$ revente$ t+e $inosaur e;tin&tion, neit+er t+e +uman ra&e, nor t+e E#A woul$ +ave e;iste$. :+e un8ortunate trut+ is t+at t+e allower8ul +uman se&ies $oes not 5et +ave t+e intelligen&e or t+e knowle$ge to





t+e re&e$ing &enturies. 3it+ massive investments in roa$s, $ams an$ ot+er e&onomi& in8rastru&ture

>nternational Corestr5 Review Qol.2F, 200/ 2<12<2 '. Dar$illo on t+e $rawing )oar$ , it is re$i&te$ t+at40Z o8 remaining 8orest in t+e AmaHon )asin will )e lost )5 20<0 oaresCil+o et al. 200/F.

>n ot+er +eavil58oreste$ &ountries, su&+ as >n$onesia an$ #aua New uinea,$e8orestation rates are also at +istori&all5 +ig+ levels CA! 200/F.

No im#act to biodiversity loss – balanced by arrival of ne+s#ecies

@iello, >9/0

[avi$, &ienti=& Ameri&an, Bio$iversit5 urvives E;tin&tions 8or Now*, Aril 20,2014, +tt-www.s&ienti=&ameri&an.&omo$&asteiso$e)io$iversit5survivese;tin&tions8ornow1, '

3e are living $uring w+at seem to )e t+e oening stages o8 t+e si;t+ masse;tin&tion in our lanet^s 4.< )illion 5ear +istor5. e&ies o8 )ir$s, =s+, mammalsan$ lants are $isaearing at see$s rarel5 e;erien&e$, t+anks in large art to

+uman a&tivities- ollution, &limate &+ange, +a)itat $estru&tion an$ ot+er $amage.But e;tin&tion aarentl5 $oes not mean less )io$iversit5Xat least not 5et. A newlook at e&os5stems 8rom t+e oles to t+e troi&s s+ows t+at losses in t+e num)er o8se&ies in an5 given la&e $o not 5et translate to large &+anges in t+e overallnum)er o8 $iMerent se&ies t+ere. :+e stu$5 is in t+e %ournal &ien&e. ['ariaornelas et al, Assem)lage :ime eries Reveal Bio$iversit5 D+ange )ut Not5stemati& oss :+e resear&+ers anal5He$ 100 surve5s t+at 8ollowe$ more t+an?<,000 $iMerent se&ies over various lengt+s o8 time. :+ese longterm stu$ies 8oun$t+at t+e num)er o8 $iMerent se&ies in, sa5, a &oral ree8 remains relativel5 &onstant.Be&ause t+e loss o8 a se&ies, eit+er lo&all5 or entirel5, is o8ten )alan&e$ )5 t+earrival o8 a new se&ies. :+e metaanal5sis s+owe$ t+at 40 er&ent o8 la&es +a$

more se&ies resent, 40 er&ent +a$ less an$ 20 er&ent were un&+ange$. >n ot+erwor$s, t+e e&os5stems o8 t+e &urrent Ant+roo&ene era are trans8orme$, )ut %ust as$iverseXso 8ar an5wa5. 3e are living in a worl$ o8 novel e&os5stems.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/biodiversity-survives-extinctions-for-now1/






/NC lt Causes

lt causes to biodiversity loss

33, 10

[Euroean Environment Agen&5, 'arine )io$iversit5- li8e in seas un$er t+reat*,+tt-www.eea.euroa.eu+ig+lig+tsmarine)io$iversit5li8einseas, '

:+e ke5 t+reats are known Court+ in t+e series o8 ^10 messages 8or 2010^, t+e EEA^sassessment +ig+lig+ts some ke5 ressures on marine e&os5stems- eutro+i&ation Xin&rease$ &on&entrations o8 &+emi&al nutrients, resulting mainl5 8rom intensiveagri&ulture on lan$, &ontinue to )e a ma%or ro)lem aMe&ting most Euroean seasWollution X alt+oug+ &on&entrations o8 +aHar$ous su)stan&es are $e&reasing, t+eirersisten&e an$ t+e large amounts alrea$5 release$ mean t+at negative eMe&ts will&ontinue 8or $e&a$esW &limate &+ange X ima&ts on marine )io$iversit5 an$e&os5stems are )e&oming more an$ more o)vious- sea sur8a&e temeratures an$

sea levels are risingW seai&e &over is $e&reasingW an$ t+e &+emi&al, +5si&al an$)iologi&al &+ara&teristi&s o8 t+e sea are &+angingW invasive alien se&ies X&om)ine$ wit+ ot+er ressures su&+ as over=s+ing, a&i$i=&ation an$ &limate&+ange, intro$u&tion o8 invasive alien se&ies &an alter entire e&os5stems.

lt cause – ocean acidi*cation

"ceana, 1/

[EMe&ts o8 !&ean A&i$i=&ation on 'arine e&ies U E&os5stems*,+tt-o&eana.orgenourwork&limateenerg5o&eana&i$i=&ationlearna&teMe&tso8o&eana&i$i=&ationonmarinese&iese&os5stems, '

'arine animals intera&t in &omle; 8oo$ we)s t+at ma5 )e $isrute$ )5 o&eana&i$i=&ation $ue to losses in ke5 se&ies t+at will +ave trou)le &reating &al&ium&ar)onate s+ells in a&i$i=e$ waters. ome se&ies o8 &al&i85ing lankton t+at aret+reatene$ )5 o&ean a&i$i=&ation 8orm t+e )ase o8 marine 8oo$ &+ains an$ areimortant sour&es o8 re5 to man5 larger organisms. :in5 swimming sea snails&alle$ teroo$s are &onsi$ere$ t+e 6otato &+is o8 t+e sea7 as t+e5 serve as a&riti&al art o8 t+e ar&ti& marine 8oo$ we), ultimatel5 8ee$ing w+ales an$ ot+er tore$ators. #teroo$ s+ells are e;e&te$ to $issolve in a&i$it5 levels re$i&te$ )5 t+een$ o8 t+is &entur5 an$ ma5 not )e a)le to survive. #oulation &ras+es or &+angesin t+e $istri)ution o8 teroo$s woul$ +ave serious imli&ations 8or some o8 t+emost a)un$ant marine e&os5stems. !t+er imortant &al&i85ing se&ies +ave )een

witnesse$ to +ave trou)les in a&i$i=e$ waters. ea ur&+ins are imortant graHersan$ &an +el to rote&t &oral ree8s 8rom en&roa&+ing algae. Soung sea ur&+ins +ave)een o)serve$ to grow slower an$ +ave t+inner, smaller, miss+aen rote&tives+ells w+en raise$ in a&i$i=e$ &on$itions, like t+ose e;e&te$ to e;ist )5 t+e 5ear2100. lower growt+ rates an$ $e8orme$ s+ells ma5 leave ur&+ins more vulnera)leto re$ators an$ $e&rease t+eir a)ilit5 to survive. Curt+ermore, un$er a&i$i=e$&on$itions t+e serm o8 some sea ur&+ins swim more slowl5, t+is re$u&es t+eir&+an&es o8 =n$ing an$ 8ertiliHing an egg, 8orming an em)r5o an$ $eveloing into

http://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/marine-biodiversity-life-in-seas

http://oceana.org/en/our-work/climate-energy/ocean-acidification/learn-act/effects-of-ocean-acidification-on-marine-species-ecosystems


http://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/marine-biodiversity-life-in-seas





sea ur&+in larvae. Brittle stars, w+i&+ are imortant )urrowers an$ re5 items 8or@at=s+, aear to )e ver5 vulnera)le to in&reasing o&ean a&i$it5 )ot+ as a$ults an$larvae, w+i&+ &oul$ result in severe oulation $e&lines in t+e 8uture. >n a&i$i=e$&on$itions, a$ult )rittle stars lose mus&le mass w+en regenerating t+eir arms an$man5 i8 not all )rittle star larvae will not survive. Even marine animals t+at $o not

&reate &al&ium &ar)onate s+ells or skeletons ma5 )e t+reatene$ )5 t+e in&reasinga&i$it5 o8 t+e o&eans. ui$ are t+e 8astest inverte)rates in t+e o&eans an$ reuire+ig+ levels o8 o;5gen 8or t+eir +ig+energ5 swimming. >n&reasingl5 a&i$i& o&eansinter8ere wit+ t+e a&i$it5 o8 a sui$^s )loo$ an$ &onseuentl5 t+e amount o8 o;5gent+at it &an &arr5. ui$ are imortant re5 8or man5 marine mammals, in&lu$ing)eake$ an$ serm w+ales. ui$ =s+eries are also t+e most lu&rative =s+er5 inDali8ornia a&&ounting 8or 2< million $ollars in revenues in 200. ome marine =s+es+ave also s+own vulnera)ilit5 to a&i$i=&ation. 3+ile a$ult =s+ ma5 )e relativel5insensitive to o&ean a&i$i=&ation, t+eir eggs an$ larvae ma5 not )e a)le to $eveloroerl5 $ue to &+anges in o&ean &+emistr5. Dlown=s+ an$ $amsel=s+ larvae +aves+own a re$u&e$ sense o8 smell in a&i$i=e$ &on$itions w+i&+ le$ to riskier swimming)e+avior. >n&rease$ levels o8 &ar)on $io;i$e +ave )een asso&i ate$ wit+ t+ese =s+)eing more a&tive, swimming 8urt+er awa5 8rom s+elter an$ not reson$ing tot+reats su&+ as re$ators. >n stu$ies, =ve to nine times more =s+ $ie$ )e&ause o8t+eir risk5 )e+avior t+an t+ose not in a&i$i=e$ &on$itions. As t+e a&i$it5 o8 t+eo&ean in&reases, t+e5 are simultaneousl5 getting warmer $ue to &limate &+ange.

:+ese 8a&tors, w+en &om)ine$, ma5 &reate even more ro)lems t+an eit+er woul$&reate in$een$entl5. Cor e;amle, in&rease$ temerature &om)ine$ wit+ t+ea&i$it5 levels e;e&te$ )5 t+e en$ o8 t+is &entur5 rove$ let+al 8or one se&ies o8&ar$inal=s+ teste$ in t+e la)orator5. :+ere will likel5 )e some se&ies t+at are a)leto @ouris+ in an a&i$i=e$ o&ean, eit+er )e&ause in&rease$ &ar)on $io;i$e levels)ene=t t+em $ire&tl5 or )e&ause t+eir &ometitors are $ire&tl5 +arme$ )5 it. :+eonl5 ro)lem is t+at t+e se&ies t+at aear to )e )est suite$ to roser in +ig+&ar)on $io;i$e &on$itions, su&+ as %ell5=s+ an$ algae, are t+ose t+at we &urrentl5see as nuisan&e, or wee$5 se&ies. >n an a&i$i=e$ o&ean t+ere will )e e&ologi&alwinners an$ losers, )ut overall, marine e&os5stems ma5 &+ange 8or t+e worse. :+e5ma5 )e&ome less vi)rant an$ $iverse, $evoi$ o8 t+e animals we love an$ $een$uon an$ 8ull o8 t+ose t+at resent less value. As o&ean &+emistr5 &ontinues to&+ange, t+e man5 goo$s an$ servi&es t+e5 rovi$e &oul$ $win$le, 8or&ing millions o8 eole to =n$ new 8oo$ sour&es, new +omes an$ new sour&es o8 in&ome. A$atingto t+ese losses will take +uge resour&es 8rom t+e glo)al &ommunit5 an$ in some&ases a$atation will not )e ossi)le. A smarter 8uture is one w+ere we re$u&e&ar)on $io;i$e emissions, transition to &leaner, renewa)le sour&es o8 energ5 an$revent t+e nee$ 8or larges&ale a$atation.

lt cause – #ollution

7ustafa, Assistant #ro8essor in t+e egal #ra&ti&e eartment at t+e >nternational

>slami& niversit5 'ala5sia, and riRn, Ca&ult5 o8 Environmental tu$ies in t+e

eartment o8 Environmental 'anagement at niversiti #utra 'ala5sia, 11



['aiHatun an$ 'ariani, >nternational Journal o8 Bios&ien&e, Bio&+emistr5 an$Bioin8ormati&s, Qol. 1 No. 4, #rote&tion o8 'arine Bio$iversit5 8rom #ollution- egaltrategies in 'ala5sia*, Novem)er 2011, +tt-www.i%))).orgaers<2B10/.$8 ,'

!ver t+e 5ears, 'ala5sia7s marine environment &ontinues to 8a&e serious ressure

arti&ularl5 $ue to ollution. 'anus&rit re&eive$ Novem)er 1, 2011W revise$Novem)er ?0, 2011. 'aiHatun 'usta8a is wit+ t+e egal #ra&ti&e eartment,A+ma$ >)ra+im Kulli55a+ o8 aws, >nternational >slami& niversit5 'ala5sia, Jalanom)ak <?100 Kuala umur, 'ala5siaemail- maiHatuniium.e$u.m5F. 'arianiAriOn is wit+ t+e eartment o8 Environmental 'anagement, Ca&ult5 o8Environmental tu$ies, niversiti #utra 'ala5sia, 4?400 er$ang elangor 'ala5siaemail- marianienv.um.e$u.m5F. #ollution 8rom lan$)ase$ sour&es, mainl5 as&onseuen&es o8 ur)aniHation an$ in$ustrialiHation along t+e &oastal areas o8'ala5sia, +as )een i$enti=e$ as t+e ma%or &ontri)utors towar$s marine ollution [2.Anot+er sour&e o8 marine ollution is t+at o8 vessel)ase$. B5 virtue o8 itsgeogra+i&al lo&ation, 'ala5sia is strategi&all5 lo&ate$ at t+e &on%un&tion o8 t+e

traits o8 'ala&&a an$ t+e out+ D+ina ea, w+i&+ serve as a ma%or &ommer&ials+iing route )etween t+e >n$ian !&ean an$ t+e #a&i=& !&ean. :+e traits o8'ala&&a is most sus&eti)le to vessel)ase$ marine ollution su&+ as oil an$ greaseese&iall5 in re&ent 5ears $ue to t+e +eav5 volume o8 s+iing t+at uses it [2. >nt+e 5ear 2010 alone, more t+an L<000 vessels +ave asse$ t+roug+ t+e traits [?.

:+us, vessels $is&+arges su&+ as tank &leaning, $e)allasting, )ilging an$ )unkeringare t+e most signi=&ant a&tivities &ontri)uting to t+e oil an$ grease in t+e marinewater. 3it+ t+e e;ansion o8 worl$ tra$e, t+e traO& volume was e;e&te$ toin&rease rai$l5 w+i&+ woul$ signi=&antl5 in&rease t+e risk o8 vessels a&&i$ents an$marine ollution. B5 nature, oil is to;i& to marine li8e. >8 oil sill rea&+es t+es+oreline, it intera&ts wit+ se$iments, vegetation, an$ +a)itats o8 wil$li8e an$

+umans, &ausing erosion an$ &ontamination. !il sill &oul$ remain 8or 5ears in t+ese$iment an$ marine environment, &ausing longterm eMe&ts to t+e marine)io$iversit5. >t is imortant 8or 'ala5sia to a$$ress t+e t+reats ose$ )5 t+e lan$)ase$ an$ vessel)ase$ ollution to ensure t+e sustaina)ilit5 o8 marine )io$iversit5[4.

lt cause – #ollution

Center for @iological Aiversity, 1/

[!DEAN #A:>D #!:>!N- A !BA :RAES C!R !R !DEAN AN EA>CE*, August 2012, +tt-www.)iologi&al$iversit5.org&amaignso&eanVlasti&s,'

#lasti& never goes awa5. An$ it7s in&reasingl5 =n$ing its wa5 into our o&eans an$onto our )ea&+es. >n t+e os Angeles area alone, 10 metri& tons o8 lasti& 8ragmentsX like gro&er5 )ags, straws an$ so$a )ottles X are &arrie$ into t+e #a&i=& !&eanever5 $a5. :o$a5 )illions o8 oun$s o8 lasti& &an )e 8oun$ in swirling &onvergen&esmaking u a)out 40 er&ent o8 t+e worl$7s o&ean sur8a&es. #lasti&s ollution +as a$ire&t an$ $ea$l5 eMe&t on wil$li8e. :+ousan$s o8 sea)ir$s an$ sea turtles, seals an$ot+er marine mammals are kille$ ea&+ 5ear a8ter ingesting lasti& or getting

http://www.ijbbb.org/papers/52-B106.pdf

http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/ocean_plastics/

http://www.ijbbb.org/papers/52-B106.pdf

http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/ocean_plastics/



entangle$ in it. En$angere$ wil$li8e like (awaiian monk seals an$ #a&i=& logger+ea$sea turtles are among nearl5 ?00 se&ies t+at eat an$ get &aug+t in lasti& litter.>t7s time to get at t+e root o8 t+is o&ean &risis. :+e Denter +as etitione$ t+eEnvironmental #rote&tion Agen&5 to )egin regulating lasti&s as a ollutant un$ert+e Dlean 3ater A&t X a &ru&ial =rst ste in re$u&ing t+e amount o8 lasti& littering

t+e o&eans. 3e^ve also etitione$ to $esignate t+e Nort+western (awaiian >slan$sas a uer8un$ site. Rea$ more a)out our &amaign. 3e nee$ 5our +el to get t+eE#A to $o t+e rig+t t+ing. #lease take a&tion to$a5 )5 signing our etition X an$also, lease sign u to get our email alerts. :(E #A:>D #R!BE' 3e^resurroun$e$ )5 lasti&. :+ink a)out ever5 ie&e 5ou tou&+ in a single $a5- gro&er5)ags, 8oo$ &ontainers, &oMee &u li$s, $rink )ottles, straws 8or %ui&e )o;es X t+e listgoes on an$ on. #lasti& ma5 )e &onvenient, )ut its su&&ess &arries a stee ri&e. >nt+e =rst $e&a$e o8 t+is &entur5, we ma$e more lasti& t+an all t+e lasti& in +istor5u to t+e 5ear 2000. An$ ever5 5ear, )illions o8 oun$s o8 lasti& en$ u in t+eworl$7s o&eans. 'ost o&ean ollution starts out on lan$ an$ is &arrie$ )5 win$ an$rain to t+e sea. !n&e in t+e water, t+ere is a near&ontinuous a&&umulation o8waste. #lasti& is so $ura)le t+at t+e E#A reorts ever5 )it o8 lasti& ever ma$e stille;ists.* ue to its low $ensit5, lasti& waste is rea$il5 transorte$ long $istan&es8rom sour&e areas an$ &on&entrates in g5res, s5stems o8 rotating o&ean &urrents.

:+e Nort+ #a&i=& 5re, also known as t+e reat #a&i=& ar)age #at&+, is twi&e t+esiHe o8 :e;as an$ growingF an$ &onsists mostl5 o8 small lasti& arti&les susen$e$at, or %ust )elow, t+e sur8a&e, w+ere =s+ an$ ot+er animals mistake t+e arti&les 8or8oo$. >n t+e ar)age #at&+, lasti& outnum)ers =s+ 8oo$ like Hoolankton si; to one.

:+e ar)age #at&+ is onl5 one o8 =ve su&+ &onvergen&e Hones, w+i&+ in total &over40 er&ent o8 t+e o&ean. A (EAQS :! !N 3>>CE :+ousan$s o8 animals, 8romsmall =n&+es to great w+ite s+arks, $ie grisl5 $eat+s 8rom eating an$ getting &aug+tin lasti&- Cis+ in t+e Nort+ #a&i=& ingest 12,000 to 24,000 tons o8 lasti& ea&+ 5ear,w+i&+ &an &ause intestinal in%ur5 an$ $eat+ an$ trans8ers lasti& u t+e 8oo$ &+ainto )igger =s+ an$ marine mammals. ea turtles also mistake @oating lasti&gar)age 8or 8oo$. 3+ile lasti& )ags are t+e most &ommonl5 ingeste$ item,logger+ea$ sea turtles +ave )een 8oun$ wit+ so8t lasti&, roes, t5ro8oam, an$mono=lament lines in t+eir stoma&+s. >ngestion o8 lasti& &an lea$ to )lo&kage int+e gut, ul&eration, internal er8oration an$ $eat+W even i8 t+eir organs remaininta&t, turtles ma5 suMer 8rom 8alse sensations o8 satiation an$ slow or +altrero$u&tion. (un$re$s o8 t+ousan$s o8 sea)ir$s ingest lasti& ever5 5ear. #lasti&ingestion re$u&es t+e storage volume o8 t+e stoma&+, &ausing )ir$s to &onsumeless 8oo$ an$ ultimatel5 starve. Nearl5 all a5san al)atross &+i&ks X 9L.< er&ent X+ave lasti& ie&es in t+eir stoma&+sW t+eir arents 8ee$ t+em lasti& arti&lesmistaken 8or 8oo$. Base$ on t+e amount o8 lasti& 8oun$ in sea)ir$ stoma&+s, t+eamount o8 gar)age in our o&eans +as rai$l5 in&rease$ in t+e ast 40 5ears. 'arinemammals ingest an$ get tangle$ in lasti&. arge amounts o8 lasti& $e)ris +ave)een 8oun$ in t+e +a)itat o8 en$angere$ (awaiian monk seals, in&lu$ing in areast+at serve as u nurseries. Entanglement $eat+s are severel5 un$erminingre&over5 eMorts o8 t+is seal, w+i&+ is alrea$5 on t+e )rink o8 e;tin&tion.Entanglement in lasti& $e)ris +as also le$ to in%ur5 an$ mortalit5 in t+een$angere$ teller sea lion, wit+ a&king )an$s t+e most &ommon entanglingmaterial. >n 200 two serm w+ales were 8oun$ stran$e$ along t+e Dali8ornia &oast



wit+ large amounts o8 =s+ing net s&ras, roe an$ ot+er lasti& $e)ris in t+eirstoma&+s.

ollution, alien s#ecies, and global +arming are all alt. causes

to marine biodiversity – em#irically #roven

-mtiyaH, research fello+ T -ndian oological Survey, 11 ;@elim,119/1911, )hreats to 7arine @iodiversity, Narendra

ublishing,

htt#=99+++.academia.edu9<>/>1<K9)hreatsVtoV7arineV@iodiver

sity, accessed K9291>?

n$erstan$ing marine )io$iversit5 an$ its t+reats are ver5 imortant 8or a num)er o8reasons. !ne &oul$ argue t+at marine )io$iversit5 +as innate imortan&e, as li8e +as valueon its own. Ant+roogeni& ima&t on t+e o&eans is alrea$5 t+ere to a &onsi$era)le $egree,

ese&iall5 in t+e &oastal areas )ut in&reasingl5 in t+e oen o&ean as well. ome t+reatsare- #ollution, (a)itat estru&tion lossF, >ntro$u&tion o8 alien se&ies,

!vere;loitation, Dlimate &+ange an$ e&lining marine )io$iversit5 worl$wi$e is ama%or an$ on going environmental $ilemma. Attention to )io$iversit5 &+anges in t+eo&eans is limite$ an$ t+ese t+reats are $ue to $eveloment relate$ a&tivities along almost+al8 o8 t+e worl$7s &oasts. :+e ima&t o8 unsustaina)le $evelomental a&tivit5 +as &ause$

loss o8 +a)itat an$ massive re$u&tions in our auati& se&ies )io$iversit5. #ollution aMe&tsman5 marine organisms. Alien se&ies &an $ramati&all5 &+ange t+e stru&ture an$8un&tion o8 marine e&os5stems )5 &+anging )io$iversit5 an$ eliminating vital&omonents o8 t+e 8oo$ &+ain w+i&+ are +arm8ul to our native se&ies. >n&rementin D! 2 results in t+e $e&rease o8 ( o8 t+e o&ean, $ue to w+i&+ a&i$i=&ation&auses $estru&tion o8 &orals an$ &oral ree8s. Ke5wor$s- #ollution, Dlimate &+ange,Alien se&ies, estru&tion, !vere;loitation. >N:R!D:>!N Cor &enturies t+e o&eanwas viewe$ as a )oun$less reservoir o8 ro$u&tivit5 wit+ unlimite$ &aa&it5 to assimilate

wastes. A ro$u&tive e&os5stem is &+ara&teriHe$ )5 a +ig+ $egree o8 )iologi&al $iversit5. >not+er wor$s it &ontains a large assem)lage o8 lant an$ animal se&ies an$ ea&+ se&ies+as a well $e=ne$ role to la5. A +ig+ level se&ies $iversit5 in an e&os5stem t+ere8oreguarantees sta)ilit5 )e&ause man5 se&ies rovi$e numerous at+wa5s 8or energ5 o8 as5stem to @ow. :+e 'arine )io$iversit5 o8 t+e o&ean makes it one o8 t+e greatest resour&es8or t+e +uman se&ies. (owever, like all resour&es it must )e use$ wit+ &aution so as toremain sustaina)le. An5 $e&rease in marine )io$iversit5 will +ave t+e greatest ima&t on$eveloing &ountries risking t+eir rimar5 sour&e o8 rotein 8oo$. :+e resour&es o8 t+e sea+ave )een over+arveste$ )5 +umans t+ere)5 t+reatening marine )io$iversit5. ?

:(REA: (uman a&tivities are &ausing se&ies to $isaear at an alarming rate. >t +as)een estimate$ t+at )etween 19L< an$ 201<, se&ies e;tin&tion will o&&ur at a rate o8 1 to11 Z er $e&a$e. osses o8 t+is magnitu$e ima&t t+e entire e&os5stem, $eriving

valua)le resour&es use$ to rovi$e 8oo$, me$i&ines, an$ in$ustrial materials to +uman)eings .:+ere are some $iMeren&es regar$ing t+e severit5 o8 ea&+ t+reat. !ver=s+ing is t+egreatest t+reat to marine environments, ot+er t+reats to auati& )io$iversit5 in&lu$eur)an $eveloment an$ resour&e)ase$ in$ustries, su&+ as mining, $re$ging t+at $estro5or re$u&e natural +a)itats. Air an$ water ollution, se$imentation, an$ &limate &+angealso ose t+reats to auati& )io$iversit5. 'an5 se&ies o8 =s+es, sea turtle an$ ot+ermarine animals are kille$ an$ $is&ar$e$ )5&at&+. :+e &omosition an$ stru&ture o8 t+e8auna, @ora an$ +a)itats o8 &oastal seas +as )een &+anging at an unusual rate in t+e last8ew $e&a$es, $ue to &+anges in t+e glo)al &limate, invasive se&ies an$ $ue to in&rease in



+uman a&tivities. (owever, +umans $o ima&t t+e o&eans alrea$5 to a &onsi$era)le$egree, ese&iall5 in t+e &oastal areas )ut in&reasingl5 in t+e oen o&ean as well. Atresent eutro+i&ation is a rimaril5 a ro)lem o8 &oastal water, arti&ularl5 in s+allow,arti&ularl5 in en&lose$ area. :+ese t+reats are- >ntro$u&tion o8 alien se&ies Dlimate &+ange #ollution (a)itat estru&tion !vere;loitation

>N:R!D:>!N !C A>EN #ED>E :+e intro$u&tion o8 +arm8ul auati& organisms

to new marine environments is )elieve$ to )e one o8 t+e 8our greatest t+reats tot+e worl$7s o&eans. An alien se&ies is one t+at +as )een intentionall5 ora&&i$entall5 transorte$ an$ release$ into an environment outsi$e o8 its +istori&geogra+i&al range. u&+ se&ies are $es&ri)e$ as 6invasive7 i8 t+e5 aree&ologi&all5 an$or e&onomi&all5 +arm8ul. >nvasive se&ies &an $ramati&all5 &+anget+e stru&ture an$ 8un&tion o8 marine e&os5stems )5 &+anging )io$iversit5 an$eliminating vital &omonents o8 t+e 8oo$ &+ain. :+ese se&ies are +arm8ul tonative )io$iversit5 in a num)er o8 wa5s, 8or e;amle, as &ometitors, re$ators,arasites, or )5 srea$ing $isease. +is use water as )allast to a$%ust t+eir osition int+e water to imrove t+eir maneuvera)ilit5 an$ sta)ilit5. 'ariners t5i&all5 um waterinto )allast tanks at one ort an$ $is&+arge it w+en taking on &argo at anot+er ort.

'ariners +ave unintentionall5 translante$ lo&all5 native marine se&ies to new areas wit+t+e )allast water. :+e arrival o8 an invasive %ell5=s+like organism, 'nemiosis lei$5i , le$to a ma%or e&ologi&al regime &+ange* in t+e Bla&k ea, w+i&+ &ontri)ute$ to t+e &ollaseo8 &ommer&ial =s+eries in t+e region. 'an5 ot+er se&ies +ave )een intro$u&e$ aslanktoni& larvae in )allast water. :+ere are man5 alien se&ies- 'an5 seawee$s like re$alga Kaa+5&us striatumF, He)ra mussel reisssena ol5mor+aF, lion =s+

Auarium =s+F, Daulera ta;i8olia #!:>!N #ollutants in t+e air, water, an$ soil&an aMe&t organisms in man5 $iMerent wa5s, 8rom altering t+e rate o8 lant growt+to &+anging rero$u&tion atterns, in &ertain e;treme situations, lea$ing toe;tin&tion.* Doral ree8s &an )e $amage$ )5 a variet5 o8 ollutants t+at arero$u&e$ )5 a variet5 o8 sour&es. Be&ause algae &an otentiall5 grow so mu&+8aster t+an &oral, t+e5 &an out&omete &orals. (uman sewage, o8ten untreate$,

&an a$$ nutrients, mi&roorganisms, an$ ot+er ollutants to &oral ree8s $eletionF.Nutrients in sewage &an &ause eutro+i&ation. >n$ustrial wastes enter t+e sea as aresult o8 $eli)erate $uming in se&i=e$ lo&ation. :+ese &oul$ )e +ig+l5 to;i&,a&i$i& or alkaline in t+e 8orm o8 soli$, liui$, inert su)stan&es. 'ass mortalit5 o8 =s+or ot+er marine organism +as )een reorte$ 8rom $iMerent regions &ause$ )5 t+erelease )5 in$ustrial wastes. Earlier, )ot+ sewage an$ in$ustrial wastes use$ to )e$ume$ rig+t along t+e s+oreline. Now t+ese are release$ t+roug+ ielines, eit+ere;ose$ or un$ergroun$, some $istan&e awa5 w+ere &ir&ulation o8 water is 8asterso t+at t+ese are &arrie$ 8art+er in to $eeer water. !8 all +eav5 metals, t+osew+i&+ &ause &on&ern are mer&ur5, &a$mium, lea$ an$ arseni&. :+ese o&&ur use;tremel5 low &on&entration in t+e waters o8 t+e oen o&ean )ut ten$ to in&rease as we

&ome to &oastal waters )e&ause o8 in$ustrial material $is&+arge$ in to sea. our&es o8 oilollution are normall5, tanker $isaster, )allast water an$ )ilage was+ings, 8a&tories et&.Animals &an )e oisone$ or suMer internal $amage 8rom ingesting oil so marine animalsma5 )e&ome slee5* an$ $rown. !ne o8 t+e most revalent si$e eMe&ts o8 an oil sill is+5ot+ermia. :+is is an illness o8ten en$ure$ )5 marine &reatures w+i&+ +ave )eene;ose$ to it. !n&e t+e oil $ri8ts into t+e water, it &reates a sti&k5 su)stan&e &alle$ t+e6mousse7. :+is mousse gets stu&k siml5 to t+e 8ur or 8eat+er o8 sea animals. :+e 8ur an$8eat+ers t+at are t5i&all5 &onstru&te$ u o8 air sa&e to ai$ insulation are una)le to @5 an$$ie $ue to starvation. !il sills aMe&t marine li8e like =lter 8ee$ers )5 &on&entrating in t+e



@es+ o8 t+ese animals. Dlams, mussels, an$ o5sters ma5 ui&kl5 a&&umulate to;ins w+i&+&an kill t+e animals or )e asse$ on along t+e 8oo$ &+ain. (uman &onsumers o8ten&omlain t+at s+ell=s+ +arveste$ 8rom an area ima&t )5 an oil sill taste +eav5 an$ oil5.Animals t+at rel5 on t+ese =lter 8ee$ers 8or 8oo$ ma5 )e&ome si&k an$ $ie as a result o8&onsuming t+em. !il sill &an )e ese&iall5 +arm8ul i8 t+e5 o&&ur $uring &oral sawning)e&ause t+e oil &an kill eggs an$ serm. !QER E_#!>:A:>!N !vere;loitation &an lea$

to resour&e $eletion an$ ut a num)er o8 t+reatene$ an$ en$angere$ se&ies at risk 8ore;tin&tion. A greater variet5 o8 se&ies at a +ig+er tro+i& level is e;loite$ in t+e sea t+anon lan$- +umans e;loit over 400 se&ies as 8oo$ resour&es 8rom t+e marine environment.

:+e e;onential growt+ o8 +uman oulation e;erien&e$ in last $e&a$es +as lea$ to anovere;loitation o8 marine living resour&es to meet growing $eman$ 8or 8oo$. 3orl$wi$e,=s+ing @eets are two to t+ree times as large as nee$e$ to take resent $a5 &at&+es o8 =s+an$ ot+er marine se&ies. :+e use o8 mo$ern te&+niues to 8a&ilitate +arvesting, transortan$ storage +as a&&elerate$ t+e over e;loitation. :+us a total o8 almost 0Z o8 t+eworl$7s =s+eries are 8ull5 to overe;loite$, $elete$, or in a state o8 &ollase. Re&entl5, astu$5 s+owe$ t+at 29Z o8 =s+ an$ sea8oo$ se&ies +ave &ollase$ i.e. t+eir &at&+ +as$e&line$ )5 90ZF an$ are ro%e&te$ to &ollase wit+in )5 204, unless imme$iate a&tion istaken. 3orl$wi$e a)out 90Z o8 t+e sto&ks o8 large re$ator5 =s+ sto&ks are alrea$5

&ollase$. :arget se&ies are generall5 t+e most ima&te$ )5 over e;loitation. !ver=s+ingis 8ar t+e )iggest t+reat 8or t+e se&ies liste$ as en$angere$ or vulnera)le to e;tin&tion.!ver=s+ing is t+reatening man5 ot+er se&ies, arti&ularl5 large siHe$ =s+es su&+ as tunas,

swor$=s+, an$ s+arks. D>'A:E D(ANE lo)al warming will &ause sea level rise.As a result +ig+er temerature $e&reases t+e a)ilit5 o8 water to $issolve o;5gen.(umans, +owever, +ave )een in&reasing t+e amount o8 D! 2 in t+e atmos+ere)5 )urning enormous amount o8 8ossil 8uels. ogger+ea$ :urtle nests in Clori$a+ave alrea$5 ro$u&ing 90Z 8emales owing to +ig+ temeratures, an$ i8 warmingraises temeratures )5 an a$$itional 1 D or more, no males will )e ro$u&e$t+ere. Doral ree8s reuire arti&ular environmental &on$itions 8or growt+ an$ water temeratures 8rom 2?G29 D are otimal 8or growt+. >n&reasing temerature too

mu&+ &an &ause t+e &oral ol5s to e;el t+e Hoo;ant+ellae an$ lea$ to &oral)lea&+ing w+ere t+e Hoo;ant+ellae are e;elle$ 8rom t+e &oral )5 t+e ol5s.Doastal ower lants use seawater 8or &ooling an$ $is&+arge t+e warme$ water att+e &oast. :+is lo&all5 $istur)s t+e e&ologi&al )alan&e o8 t+e marine &ommunitiesese&iall5 i8 it is alrea$5 a low o;5gen environment gases are less solu)le in warmwaterF. 3arming is )a$ 8or olar &ommunities, t+e Ar&ti& a&ki&e +as )een gettingt+inner at a rate t+at i8 maintaine$ will result in t+e Ar&ti& )e&oming i&e8ree in a8ew $e&a$es, an$ wit+ its $isaearan&e will go olar )ears, walruses an$ man5 o8 t+e ot+er Ar&ti& se&ies. (AB>:A: E:RD:>!N oss o8 +a)itat is t+e ma%or reasonw+5 auati& )io$iversit5 is $e&lining. (a)itat $estru&tion an$ 8ragmentation is a ro&esst+at $es&ri)es t+e emergen&es o8 $is&ontinuities 8ragmentationF or t+e loss $estru&tionFo8 t+e environment in+a)ite$ )5 an organism. Aro;imatel5 20Z o8 t+e worl$7s &oral ree8s

were lost an$ an a$$itional 20Z $egra$e$ in t+e last several $e&a$es o8 t+e twentiet+&entur5, an$ aro;imatel5 ?<Z o8 mangrove area was lost $uring t+is time. 3+en ase&ies goes e;tin&t, all t+e geneti& in8ormation &arrie$ )5 in$ivi$uals o8 t+at se&ies is lost8orever, never to )e rero$u&e$ again. E;tin&tion is a terri)le waste o8 li8e an$ a loss o8otential solutions to 8uture ro)lems su&+ as ossi)le &ures to $isease an$ solutions 8orsurvival in a &+anging worl$. e&lining )io$iversit5 worl$wi$e is a ma%or an$ ongoingenvironmental $ilemma. Cor e;- Rising temeratures, rising sea levels, an$ ot+er tren$swill +ave an eMe&t on t+e worl$7s / se&ies o8 sea turtles. All over t+e worl$, $ivers &at&+t+e =s+ t+at live in an$ aroun$ &oral ree8s. But t+e $ivers want lots o8 =s+ an$ most o8



t+em are not ver5 well traine$ at =s+ &at&+ing. Anot+er wa5 t+at $ivers &at&+ &oral ree8 =s+is wit+ &5ani$e a oison. :+e $ivers our oison on t+e ree8, w+i&+ stuns t+e =s+ an$ killst+e &oral. :+is oison kills 90Z o8 t+e =s+ t+at live in t+e ree8 an$ t+e ree8 is &omletel5$estro5e$ )ot+ )5 t+e oison an$ t+en )5 )eing rie$ aart. 'angrove 8orests areroutinel5 )eing &leare$, wit+ +uge ima&ts on )io$iversit5. (ealt+5 mangrove 8orestsrovi$e a &riti&al +a)itat 8or man5 se&ies in interti$al an$ estuarine areas an$ are ke5 to a

+ealt+5 marine environment. Elevate$ water temeratures &ause )lea&+ing an$ en&ourage$isease. A &om)ination o8 melting i&e &as an$ t+ermal e;ansion o8 water in t+e o&eansmeans t+at man5 low l5ing islan$ states will )e su)merge$. 'an5 &oastal areas an$estuaries will )e @oo$e$ )5 t+e sea, w+ile an in&rease in e;treme weat+er atterns willin&rease erosion an$ @oo$ing. >t is ossi)le t+at even t+e 8un$amental atterns o8 o&ean&ir&ulation w+i&+ largel5 govern t+e eart+7s &limate will )e &+ange$, lea$ing to wi$esrea$$isrution o8 )ot+ o&ean an$ terrestrial e&os5stems. D!ND>!N (uman attentionrig+tl5 8o&uses on t+e $e&line o8 )io$iversit5 on lan$, )ut t+is s+oul$ not +aen at t+ee;ense o8 t+e o&eans attention to marine )io$iversit5 is also urgentl5 nee$e$ i8 a sta)lerelations+i )etween +umans an$ t+e sea is nee$e$. :+e o&eans +ave no owner an$ nosingle nation or international organisation is lia)le 8or t+eir +ealt+. As a &onseuen&e, t+eseas are un$er in&reasing ressure. #reserving marine )io$iversit5 8or t+e sake o8

knowle$ge itsel8 is imortant. Bio$iversit5 is $e&lining ver5 rai$l5 an$ eMorts to sto t+e$e&line must )e intensi=e$. :+ere nee$s to )e more u)li& suort in or$er to &onserve.B5 assing knowle$ge an$ are&iation o8 marine )io$iversit5 to 8uture generations &an )ea great &on&ern.



/NC %umans Survive%umans +ill survive+e can isolate ourselves from the

environment

o+ers /00/ [awren&e, #ro8essor o8 Natural &ien&es, !regon >nstitute o8

:e&+nolog5, :+e D+roni&le o8 (ig+er E$u&ation, August 9 3

'ass e;tin&tions aear to result 8rom ma%or &limati& &+anges or&atastro+es, su&+ as asteroi$ ima&ts. As 8ar as we know, none +as resulte$ 8rom t+e a&tivities o8 a se&ies,

regar$less o8 re$ator5 vora&it5, at+ogeni&it5, or an5 ot+er intera&tive attri)ute. 3e are t+e =rstse&ies wit+ t+e otential to maniulate glo)al &limates an$ to $estro5+a)itats , er+as even e&os5stems t+ere8ore setting t+e stage 8or a si;t+mass e;tin&tion. A&&or$ing to Boulter, t+is event will )e an inevita)le &onseuen&e o8 a sel8organiHe$

Eart+li8e s5stem. :+is aialike roosal mig+t a&&ount 8or man5 o8 t+e ro&esses e;+i)ite$ )5 )iologi&al evolution

)e8ore man^s te&+nologi&al intervention, )ut ... t+e rules are now $ramati&all5 $iMerent. ... 'an5 se&iesma5 vanis+, ... )ut t+at $oesn^t guarantee, un8ortunatel5, t+at we will )e among

t+e missing. 3+ile ot+er se&ies go )ang in t+e nig+t, +umanit5 willte&+nologi&all5 isolate itsel8 8urt+er 8rom t+e natural worl$ an$ willrationaliHe t+e $e&rease in )io$iversit5 in t+e same manner as we +ave $oneso 8ar. > 8ear, t+at like t+e 8a)le$ &o&kroa&+es o8 t+e atomi& age, we ma5 )e oneo8 t+e last li8e8orms to su&&um), long a8ter t+e vast tra&ts o8 )eaut5 t+at

Boulter mourns we will no longer )e+ol$ vanis+ )e8ore our $istant $es&en$ants^ e5es.



/NC 3nvironment 6esilient)he environment is resilient$ it has +ithstood ridiculous

amounts of destruction

3asterbroo! '2 [regg, istinguis+e$ Cellow, Cull)rig+t Coun$ation, A 'oment

on Eart+ . 2< 3

>N :(E AC:ER'A:( !C EQEN: D( A !QE DANA !R :(E E;;on Qal$eH oil sill,ever5 re8eren&e to t+e environment is re8a&e$ wit+ t+e a$%e&tive 8ragile. Cragile

environment +as )e&ome a wel$e$ +rase o8 t+e mo$ern le;i&on, like aging +iie or 8ugitive =nan&ier. But t+enotion o8 a 8ragile environment is ro8oun$l5 wrong. >n$ivi$ual animals, lants, an$ eole are $istressingl5 8ragile.

)he environment t+at &ontains t+em is &lose to indestructible. :+e livingenvironment o8 Eart+ +as survive$ i&e agesW )om)ar$ments o8 &osmi& ra$iationmore $ea$l5 t+an atomi& 8alloutW solar ra$iation more ower8ul t+an t+e worst&asero%e&tion 8or oHone $eletionW t+ousan$5ear erio$s o8 intense vol&anism releasingglo)al air ollution 8ar worse t+an t+at ma$e )5 an5 8a&tor5W reversals o8 t+elanet^s magneti& olesW t+e rearrangement o8 &ontinents W trans8ormation o8 lains

into mountain ranges an$ o8 seas into lainsW @u&tuations o8 o&ean &urrents an$ t+e %et streamW ?008oot va&illations in sea levels W s+ortening an$ lengt+ening o8 t+eseasons &ause$ )5 s+i8ts in t+e lanetar5 a;isW &ollisions o8 asteroi$s an$ &omets)earing 8ar more 8or&e t+an man^s nu&lear arsenalsW an$ t+e 5ears wit+out summert+at 8ollowe$ t+ese ima&ts. Bet hearts beat on, and #etals unfold still. Derethe environment fragile it +ould have e4#ired many eons before the

advent of the industrial a5ronts of the dreaming a#e. %uman assaults on the

environment , though mischievous, are #in#ric!s com#ared to forces of the

magnitude nature is accustomed to resisting .

No im#act to biodiversity loss

Sedo, enior Cellow at Resour&es 8or t+e Cuture, A D resear&+ organiHation t+atstu$ies natural resour&es, /G

[Roger, Resour&es 8or t+e Cuture, +onserving

Nat(res %iodiversity# insights 'rom

iology, ethics and economics, e$s. Qan Kooten, Bulte an$ in&lair, 2000, . 114F

As a &riti&al inut into t+e e;isten&e o8 +umans an$ o8 li8e on eart+, )io$iversit5o)viousl5 +as a ver5 +ig+ value at least to +umansF. But, as wit+ ot+er resour&euestions, in&lu$ing u)li& goo$s, )io$iversit5 is not an eit+eror uestion, )utrat+er a uestion o8 +ow mu&+.* :+us, we ma5 argue as to +ow mu&+ )io$iversit5is $esira)le or is reuire$ 8or +uman li8e t+res+ol$F an$ +ow mu&+ is $esira)leinsuran&eF an$ at w+at ri&e, %ust as so&ieties argue over t+e aroriate amount

an$ &ost o8 national $e8ense. As $is&usse$ )5 imson, t+e value o8 water is smalleven t+oug+ it is essential to +uman li8e, w+ile $iamon$s are inessential )utvalua)le to +umans. :+e reason +as to $o wit+ relative a)un$an&e an$ s&ar&it5,wit+ market value ertaining to t+e marginal unit. :+is water$iamon$ ara$o; &an)e alie$ to )io$iversit5. Alt+oug+ )iologi&al $iversit5 is essential, a single se&ies+as onl5 limite$ value, sin&e t+e glo)al s5stem will &ontinue to 8un&tion wit+out t+atse&ies. imilarl5, t+e value o8 a ie&e o8 )io$iversit5 e.g., 10 +a o8 troi&al 8orestFis small to negligi)le sin&e its &ontri)ution to t+e 8un&tioning o8 t+e glo)al



)io$iversit5 is negligi)le. :+e glo)al e&os5stem &an 8un&tion wit+ somew+at more*or somew+at less* )io$iversit5, sin&e t+ere +ave )een larger amounts in times astan$ some losses in re&ent times. :+ere8ore, in t+e a)sen&e o8 evi$en&e to in$i&atet+at small +a)itat losses t+reaten t+e 8un&tioning o8 t+e glo)al li8e suort s5stem,t+e value o8 t+ese marginal +a)itats is negligi)le. :+e value uestion* is t+at o8

+ow valua)le to t+e li8e suort 8un&tion are se&ies at t+e margin. 3+ile t+is, inrin&ile, is an emiri&al uestion, in ra&ti&e it is ro)a)l5 unknowa)le. (owever,t+us 8ar, )io$iversit5 losses aear to +ave +a$ little or no eMe&t on t+e 8un&tioningo8 t+e eart+7s li8e suort s5stem, resuma)l5 $ue to t+e resilien&5 o8 t+e s5stem,w+i&+ er+as is $ue to t+e re$un$an&5 8oun$ in t+e s5stem. :+roug+ most o8 itse;isten&e, eart+ +as +a$ 8ar less )iologi&al $iversit5. :+us, as in t+e water$iamon$ara$o;, t+e value o8 t+e marginal unit o8 )io$iversit5 aears to )e ver5 small.



/NC 34aggeration3nvironmental grou#s e4aggerate e4tinction rate.

3ntro#y 7agaHines, /

[Reviews*, +tt-entro5.)rni%+u.orgreviewssketi&al.+tml, Novem)er, e&em)er

2002

imilarl5, reenea&e &laime$ t+at <0Z o8 Eart+^s )io$iversit5 will )e lost in L<5ears, w+en t+e a&tual num)er o8 se&ies lost re$i&te$ )5 reuta)le sour&es is0.LZ over <0 5ears still too +ig+, )ut in$i&ating a 4L 8ol$ e;aggeration )5reenea&e. :+e statisti& &ommonl5 &ite$ )5 environmentalists o8 40,000 se&ies$isaearing ea&+ 5ear was siml5 i&ke$ out o8 a +at. :+is num)er is 10,000 times+ig+er t+an t+e rate o)serve$ )5 )iologists. :+e aut+or gives numerous ot+ere;amles o8 8alse an$ e;aggerate$ statements )5 reenea&e, t+e 3orl$wi$e Cun$8or Nature, 3orl$ 3at&+ >nstitute, an$ ot+er environmental a&tivist grous.

3nvironmental grou#s e4aggerate the crisis

Aartmouth 6evie+, /

[>nsi$e t+e Environmentalist E&+o D+am)er, Aril 2002,+tt-www.$artreview.&omar&+ives0000<9.+

:+e ma%or environmental organiHations +ave )ot+ e&onomi& an$ oliti&al reasons toe;aggerate t+e e;tent o8 our environmental ro)lems an$ avoi$ $isassionateanal5sis o8 t+e &osts an$ )ene=ts o8 t+e solutions t+e5 roose. :+eir 8un$raising$een$s on maintaining t+e er&etion among t+eir mem)ers+i t+at t+eenvironment is un$er siege. :o a$mit t+at an environmental issue is &omle; an$not well un$erstoo$, an$ t+at a roose$ solution &oul$ on )alan&e +ave a negativeima&t, $oes not make 8or a ver5 eMe&tive &all to arms. 'a%or environmentallegislation gets asse$ onl5 i8 a sense o8 &risis is &reate$.

http://entropy.brni-jhu.org/reviews/skeptical.html

http://entropy.brni-jhu.org/reviews/skeptical.html



/NC @iodiversity @ad)urn – biodiversity causes instability – scienti*c consensus

Naeem et al., ire&tor o8 &ien&e at Denter 8or Environmental Resear&+ an$

Donservation, #ro8essor an$ D+air o8 Dolum)ia niversit5 eartment o8 E&olog5, /

[+a+i$, eartment o8 E&olog5, Evolution an$ Environmental Biolog5, Bio$iversit5an$ e&os5stem 8un&tioning- s5nt+esis an$ erse&tives,* g. 0p

:+e earl5 view t+at ermeate$ e&olog5 until t+e 19/0s was t+at $iversit5 or&omle;it5F )egets sta)ilit5. :+is view was 8ormaliHe$ an$ t+eoriHe$ )5 eole su&+as !$um 19<?F, 'a&Art+ur 19<<F an$ Elton 19<F in t+e 19<0s. !$um 19<?F an$Elton 19<F o)serve$ t+at simle &ommunities are more easil5 uset t+an ri&+ones, i.e. t+e5 are more su)%e&t to $estru&tive oulation os&illations an$ invasions.'a&Art+ur 19<<F roose$, using a +euristi& mo$el t+at t+e more at+wa5s t+ereare 8or energ5 to rea&+ a &onsumer, t+e less severe is t+e 8ailure o8 an5 oneat+wa5. :+ese &on&lusions were )ase$ on eit+er intuitive arguments or loose

o)servations, )ut la&ke$ a strong t+eoreti&al an$ e;erimental 8oun$ation. #ro)a)l5)e&ause t+e5 reresente$ t+e &onventional wis$om 6$on7t ut all 5our eggs in one)asket7F an$ t+e revailing +iloso+i&al view o8 t+e 6)alan&e o8 nature7, t+e5)e&ame almost universall5 a&&ete$. :+is 6&onventional wis$om7 was seriousl5&+allenge$ in t+e earl5 19L0s )5 t+eorists su&+ as evins 19L0F, ar$ner an$As+)5 19L0F, an$ 'a5 19L2, 19L4F, w+o )orrowe$ t+e 8ormalism o8 $eterministi&autonomous $5nami&al s5stems 8rom Newtonian +5si&s an$ s+owe$ t+at, in t+esemo$el s5stems, t+e more &omle; t+e s5stem, t+e less likel5 it is to )e sta)le.ta)ilit5 +ere was $e=ne$ ualitativel5 )5 t+e 8a&t t+at s5stem returns to itseuili)rium or stea$5 state a8ter a ertur)ation. :+is intuitive e;lanation 8or t+is$esta)iliHing in@uen&e o8 &omle;it5 is t+at t+e more $iversi=e$ an$ t+e more

&onne&te$ a s5stem, t+e more numerous an$ t+e longer t+e at+wa5s along w+i&+a ertur)ation &an roagate wit+in t+e s5stem, lea$ing to eit+er its &ollase or itse;losion. :+is &on&lusion was 8urt+er suorte$ )5 anal5ses o8 one uantitativemeasure o8 sta)ilit5, resilien&e :a)le L.1F, in mo$el 8oo$ we)s #imm an$ awton19LLW #imm 192F. :+is t+eoreti&al work +a$ a num)er o8 limitations. >n arti&ular,it was )ase$ on ran$oml5 &onstru&te$ mo$el &ommunities. 'ore realisti& 8oo$ we)sin&ororating t+ermo$5nami& &onstraints an$ o)serve$ atters o8 intera&tionstrengt+s $o not ne&essaril5 +ave t+e same roerties eAngelis 19L<W $e Ruiter etal. 1990F. Also, t+ere +ave )een 8ew $ire&t e;erimental tests o8 t+e t+eor5, an$man5 o8 t+e natural atterns t+at agree wit+ t+eoreti&al re$i&tions &an )ee;laine$ )5 more arsimonious +5ot+eses su&+ as t+e tro+i& &as&a$e mo$el

Do+en an$ Newman 19<F. esite t+ese limitations, t+e view t+at $iversit5 an$&omle;it5 )eget insta)ilit5, not sta)ilit5, ui&kl5 )e&ame t+e new ara$igm in t+e19L0s an$ 190s )e&ause o8 t+e mat+emati&al rigour o8 t+e t+eor5.



/NC No 34tinctionNe+ s#ecies balance loss of s#ecies – studies #rove

@iello 1> avi$, Environmental Journalist, 42014, Bio$iversit5 urvives

E;tin&tions 8or Now,* &ienti=& Ameri&an,

+tt-www.s&ienti=&ameri&an.&omo$&asteiso$e)io$iversit5survivese;tin&tions8ornow1, a&&esse$ L<14F

3e are living $uring w+at seem to )e t+e oening stages o8 t+e si;t+ masse;tin&tion in our lanet^s 4.< )illion 5ear +istor5. e&ies o8 )ir$s, =s+, mammalsan$ lants are $isaearing at see$s rarel5 e;erien&e$, t+anks in large art to+uman a&tivities- ollution, &limate &+ange, +a)itat $estru&tion an$ ot+er $amage.But e;tin&tion aarentl5 $oes not mean less )io$iversit5Xat least not 5et. A newlook at e&os5stems 8rom t+e oles to t+e troi&s s+ows t+at losses in t+e num)er o8se&ies in an5 given la&e $o not 5et translate to large &+anges in t+e overallnum)er o8 $iMerent se&ies t+ere. :+e stu$5 is in t+e %ournal &ien&e. ['ariaornelas et al, Assem)lage :ime eries Reveal Bio$iversit5 D+ange )ut Not

5stemati& oss :+e resear&+ers anal5He$ 100 surve5s t+at 8ollowe$ more t+an?<,000 $iMerent se&ies over various lengt+s o8 time. :+ese longterm stu$ies 8oun$t+at t+e num)er o8 $iMerent se&ies in, sa5, a &oral ree8 remains relativel5 &onstant.Be&ause t+e loss o8 a se&ies, eit+er lo&all5 or entirel5, is o8ten )alan&e$ )5 t+earrival o8 a new se&ies.

''.'W biodiversity loss has no im#act on humanity

Sagoff $ Sr researcher, U 7aryland $ ’97 J7ar!, Senior 6esearch

Scholar T -nstitute for hiloso#hy and ublic #olicy in School

of ublic 5airs T U. 7aryland, Dilliam and 7ary Pa+ 6evie+,

-NS)-)U)3 "F @-PP "F 6-:%)S PD SB7"S-U7 A3F-N-N:)G-N:S= 6-X)3 6"36)B NA )%3 FU)U63 "F

:"X36N73N) 63:UP)-"N= 7UAAP3 "6 7UAAP3 )%6"U:%M

)G-N:S EU6-S6UA3NC3 733)S )%3 3NAN:363A S3C-3S

C), <8 Dm and 7ary P. 6ev. 8/2, 7arch, P9NL

Alt+oug+ one ma5 agree wit+ e&ologists su&+ as E+rli&+ an$ Raven t+at t+e eart+stan$s on t+e )rink o8 an eiso$e o8 massive e;tin&tion, it ma5 not 8ollow 8rom t+isgrim 8a&t t+at +uman )eings will suMer as a result. !n t+e &ontrar5, sketi&s su&+ ass&ien&e writer Dolin :u$ge +ave &+allenge$ )iologists to e;lain w+5 we nee$ moret+an a tent+ o8 t+e 10 to 100 million se&ies t+at gra&e t+e eart+. Noting t+at

&ultivate$ s5stems o8ten outro$u&e wil$ s5stems )5 1008ol$ or more, :u$ge$e&lare$ t+at t+e argument t+at +umans nee$ t+e variet5 o8 ot+er se&ies is, w+en5ou t+ink a)out it, a t+eologi&al one. n?4? :u$ge o)serve$ t+at t+e elimination o8all )ut a tin5 minorit5 o8 our 8ellow &reatures $oes not aMe&t t+e material well)eingo8 +umans one iota . n?44 :+is sketi& &+allenge$ e&ologists to list more t+an10,000 se&ies ot+er t+an unt+reatene$ mi&ro)esF t+at are essential to e&os5stemro$u&tivit5 or 8un&tioning. n?4< :+e +uman se&ies &oul$ survive %ust as well i899.9Z o8 our 8ellow &reatures went e;tin&t, rovi$e$ onl5 t+at we retaine$ t+e



aroriate 0.1Z t+at we nee$. n?4/ [\90/ :+e monumental lo)alBio$iversit5 Assessment t+e AssessmentF i$enti=e$ two ositions wit+ rese&t tore$un$an&5 o8 se&ies. At one e;treme is t+e i$ea t+at ea&+ se&ies is uniue an$imortant, su&+ t+at its removal or loss will +ave $emonstra)le &onseuen&es to t+e8un&tioning o8 t+e &ommunit5 or e&os5stem. n?4L :+e aut+ors o8 t+e Assessment,

a anel o8 eminent e&ologists, en$orse$ t+is osition, sa5ing it is unlikel5 t+at t+ereis mu&+, i8 an5, e&ologi&al re$un$an&5 in &ommunities over time s&ales o8 $e&a$esto &enturies, t+e time erio$ over w+i&+ environmental oli&5 s+oul$ oerate. n?4

:+ese eminent e&ologists re%e&te$ t+e oosing view, t+e notion t+at se&iesoverla in 8un&tion to a suO&ient $egree t+at removal or loss o8 a se&ies will )e&omensate$ )5 ot+ers, wit+ negligi)le overall &onseuen&es to t+e &ommunit5 ore&os5stem. n?49 !t+er )iologists )elieve, +owever, t+at se&ies are so 8a)ulousl5re$un$ant in t+e e&ologi&al 8un&tions t+e5 er8orm t+at t+e li8esuort s5stems an$ro&esses o8 t+e lanet an$ e&ologi&al ro&esses in general will 8un&tion er8e&tl5well wit+ 8ewer o8 t+em, &ertainl5 8ewer t+an t+e millions an$ millions we &ane;e&t to remain even i8 ever5 t+reatene$ organism )e&omes e;tin&t. n?<0 Event+e kin$ o8 sarse an$ misera)le worl$ $ei&te$ in t+e movie Bla$e Runner &oul$rovi$e a sustaina)le &onte;t 8or t+e +uman e&onom5 as long as eole 8orgott+eir aest+eti& an$ moral &ommitment to t+e glor5 an$ )eaut5 o8 t+e natural worl$.n?<1 :+e Assessment makes t+is oint. Alt+oug+ an5 e&os5stem &ontains+un$re$s to t+ousan$s o8 se&ies intera&ting among t+emselves an$ t+eir +5si&alenvironment, t+e emerging &onsensus is t+at t+e s5stem is $riven )5 a smallnum)er o8 . . . )ioti& varia)les on w+ose intera&tions t+e )alan&e o8 se&ies are, in asense, &arrie$ along. n?<2 [\90L :o make u 5our min$ on t+e uestion o8 t+e8un&tional re$un$an&5 o8 se&ies, &onsi$er an en$angere$ se&ies o8 )ir$, lant, orinse&t an$ ask +ow t+e e&os5stem woul$ 8are in its a)sen&e. :+e 8a&t t+at t+e&reature is en$angere$ suggests an answer- it is alrea$5 in lim)o as 8ar ase&os5stem ro&esses are &on&erne$. 3+at &ru&ial e&ologi&al servi&es $oes t+e)la&k&ae$ vireo, 8or e;amle, serve Are an5 o8 t+e se&ies t+reatene$ wit+e;tin&tion ne&essar5 to t+e rovision o8 an5 e&os5stem servi&e on w+i&+ +umans$een$ >8 so, w+i&+ ones are t+e5 E&os5stems an$ t+e se&ies t+at &omoset+em +ave &+ange$, $ramati&all5, &ontinuall5, an$ totall5 in virtuall5 ever5 art o8t+e nite$ tates. :+ere is little e&ologi&al similarit5, 8or e;amle, )etween NewEnglan$ to$a5 an$ t+e lan$ w+ere t+e #ilgrims $ie$. n?<? >n view o8 t+e &onstantre&on=guration o8 t+e )iota , one ma5 won$er w+5 Ameri&ans +ave not suMere$more as a result o8 e&ologi&al &atastro+es. :+e &ast o8 se&ies in nearl5 ever5environment &+anges &onstantl5lo&al e;tin&tion is &ommonla&e in nature)ut t+e&ros still grow. ome+ow, it seems, roert5 values kee going u on 'art+a^sQine5ar$ in site o8 t+e tragi& $isaearan&e o8 t+e +eat+ +en. !ne mig+t arguet+at t+e s+eer num)er an$ variet5 o8 &reatures availa)le to an5 e&os5stem )uMerst+at s5stem against stress. A&&or$ingl5, we s+oul$ )e &on&erne$ i8 t+e li)rar5 o8&reatures rea$5, willing, an$ a)le to &oloniHe e&os5stems gets too small. A$van&esin geneti& engineering ma5 well ermit us to write a large num)er o8 a$$itions tot+at li)rar5.F >n t+e nite$ tates as in man5 ot+er arts o8 t+e worl$, +owever,t+e num)er o8 se&ies +as )een in&reasing $ramati&all5 , not $e&reasing, as a resulto8 +uman a&tivit5. :+is is )e&ause t+e +or$es o8 e;oti& se&ies &oming intoe&os5stems in t+e nite$ tates 8ar e;&ee$ t+e num)er o8 se&ies t+at are



)e&oming e;tin&t. >n$ee$, intro$u&tions ma5 outnum)er e;tin&tions )5 more t+anten to one, so t+at t+e nite$ tates is )e&oming more an$ more se&iesri&+ all t+etime largel5 as a result o8 +uman a&tion. n?<4 [\90 #eter Qitousek an$&olleagues estimate t+at over 1000 nonnative lants grow in Dali8ornia aloneW in(awaii t+ere are /1W in Clori$a, 1210. n?<< >n Clori$a more t+an 1000 nonnative

inse&ts, 2? se&ies o8 mammals, an$ a)out 11 e;oti& )ir$s +ave esta)lis+e$t+emselves. n?</ An5one w+o waters a lawn or +oes a gar$en knows +ow man5wee$s $esire to grow t+ere, +ow man5 )ir$s an$ )ugs visit t+e 5ar$, an$ +ow man58ungi, &ree5&rawlies, an$ ot+er o$$ li8e 8orms s+ow 8ort+ w+en it rains. All )elongto nature, 8rom w+erever t+e5 mig+t +ail, )ut not man5 +omeowners woul$ &laimt+at t+ere are too 8ew o8 t+em. Now, not all e;oti& se&ies rovi$e e&os5stemservi&esW in$ee$, some ma5 )e $isrutive or +ave no instrumental value. n?<L :+isalso ma5 )e true, o8 &ourse, o8 native se&ies as well, ese&iall5 )e&ause all e;oti&sare native somew+ere. Dertain e;oti& se&ies, +owever, su&+ as Kentu&k5 )luegrass, esta)lis+ an area^s sense o8 i$entit5 an$ la&eW ot+ers, su&+ as t+e green&ra)s s+owing u aroun$ 'art+a^s Qine5ar$, are nuisan&es. n?< Donsi$er ananalog5 [\909 wit+ +uman migration. Ever5one knows t+at a8ter a generation ortwo, immigrants to t+is &ountr5 are +ar$ to $istinguis+ 8rom ever5one else. :+e vastma%orit5 o8 Ameri&ans $i$ not evolve +ere, as it were, 8rom +omini$sW most o8 us&ame over at one time or anot+er. :+is is true o8 man5 o8 our 8ellow se&ies aswell, an$ t+e5 ma5 =t in +ere %ust as well as we $o. >t is ossi)le to $istinguis+e;oti& se&ies 8rom native ones 8or a erio$ o8 time, %ust as we &an $istinguis+immigrants 8rom native)orn Ameri&ans, )ut as t+e &enturies roll )5, se&ies, likeeole, =t into t+e lan$s&ae or t+e so&iet5, &+anging an$ o8ten enri&+ing it. +allwe +ave a rule t+at a se&ies +a$ to &ome over on t+e 'a5@ower, as so man5 $i$,to &ount as trul5 Ameri&an #lainl5 not. 3+en, t+en, is t+e &utoM $ate >nso8ar aswe are &on&erne$ wit+ t+e a)solute num)ers o8 rivets +ol$ing e&os5stemstoget+er, e;tin&tion seems not to ose a general ro)lem )e&ause a 8ar greaternum)er o8 kin$s o8 mammals, inse&ts, =s+, lants, an$ ot+er &reatures t+rive onlan$ an$ in water in Ameri&a to$a5 t+an in relasarian times. n?<9 :+e E&ologi&alo&iet5 o8 Ameri&a +as urge$ managers to maintain )iologi&al $iversit5 as a &riti&al&omonent in strengt+ening e&os5stems against $istur)an&e. n?/0 Set as imonevin o)serve$, mu&+ o8 t+e $etail a)out se&ies &omosition will )e irrelevant interms o8 in@uen&es on e&os5stem roerties. n?/1 [\910 (e a$$e$- Cor netrimar5 ro$u&tivit5, as is likel5 to )e t+e &ase 8or an5 s5stem roert5, )io$iversit5matters onl5 u to a ointW a)ove a &ertain level, in&reasing )io$iversit5 is likel5 tomake little $iMeren&e. n?/2 3+at a)out t+e use o8 lants an$ animals inagri&ulture :+ere is no s&ar&it5 8oreseea)le . !8 an estimate$ 0,000 t5es o8lants [we know to )e e$i)le, a .. eartment o8 t+e >nterior $o&ument sa5s,onl5 a)out 1<0 are e;tensivel5 &ultivate$. n?/? A)out twent5 se&ies, not one o8w+i&+ is en$angere$, rovi$e ninet5 er&ent o8 t+e 8oo$ t+e worl$ takes 8rom lants.n?/4 An5 new 8oo$ +as to take s+el8 sa&e or market s+are 8rom one t+at is nowro$u&e$. Dororations also =n$ it $iO&ult to &reate $eman$ 8or a new ro$u&tW 8ore;amle, eole are not in&line$ to eat awaws, even t+oug+ t+e5 are $eli&ious. >tis +ar$ enoug+ to get eole to eat t+eir )ro&&oli an$ lima )eans. >t is +ar$er still to$evelo &onsumer $eman$ 8or new 8oo$s. :+is ma5 )e t+e reason t+e Kra8t



Dororation $oes not rose&t in remote la&es 8or rare an$ unusual lants an$animals to a$$ to t+e worl$^s $iet.

S#ecies e4tinction +onYt cause human e4tinction – humans and

the environment are ada#tableDoremus’ 00

J%olly, rofessor of Pa+ at UC Aavis Dashington O Pee Pa+

6evie+, Dinter 2K Dash O Pee P. 6ev. 11, le4isL

>n re&ent 5ears, t+is $is&ourse 8reuentl5 +as taken t+e 8orm o8 t+e e&ologi&al +orrorstor5. :+at too is no m5ster5. :+e e&ologi&al +orror stor5 is unuestiona)l5 anattentiongetter , ese&iall5 in t+e +an$s o8 skille$ writers [\4/ like Darson an$ t+eE+rli&+s. :+e image o8 t+e airlane eart+, its wings wo))ling as rivet a8ter rivet is&arelessl5 oe$ out, is $iO&ult to ignore. :+e ao&al5ti& $ei&tion o8 an

imen$ing &risis o8 otentiall5 $ire roortions is $esigne$ to sur t+e oliti&al&ommunit5 to ui&k a&tion . Curt+ermore, t+is stor5 suggests a goal t+at aeals toman5 nature lovers- t+at virtuall5 ever5t+ing must )e rote&te$. :o rein8or&e t+issuggestion, tellers o8 t+e e&ologi&al +orror stor5 o8ten iml5 t+at t+e relativeimortan&e o8 various rivets to t+e e&ologi&al lane &annot )e $etermine$. :+e5oMer reams o8 $ata an$ $oHens o8 ane&$otes $emonstrating t+e une;e&te$ valueo8 aarentl5 useless arts o8 nature. :+e mot+ t+at save$ Australia 8rom ri&kl5ear invasion, t+e s&ru))5 #a&i=& 5ew, an$ t+e $ownrig+t unattra&tive lee&+ areamong t+e un&+arismati& @ora an$ 8auna w+o star in t+ese ane&$otes. n211 :+emoral is o)vious- )e&ause we &annot )e sure w+i&+ rivets are +ol$ing t+e lanetoget+er, saving t+em all is t+e onl5 sensi)le &ourse. Notwit+stan$ing its

attra&tions, t+e material $is&ourse in general, an$ t+e e&ologi&al +orror stor5 inarti&ular, are not likel5 to generate oli&ies t+at will satis85 nature lovers. :+ee&ologi&al +orror stor5 imlies t+at t+ere is no reason to rote&t nature until&atastro+e looms. :+e E+rli&+s^ rivetoer a&&ount, 8or e;amle, resentsse&ies siml5 as t+e 8ungi)leF +ar$ware +ol$ing toget+er t+e e&os5stem. >8 we&oul$ )e reasona)l5 &ertain t+at a arti&ular rivet was not nee$e$ to revent a&ras+, t+e rivetoer stor5 suggests t+at we woul$ lose ver5 little )5 ulling it out.'an5 environmentalists, t+oug+, woul$ $isagree. Relu&tant to &on&e$e su&+ losses,tellers o8 t+e e&ologi&al +orror stor5 +ig+lig+t +ow &lose a &atastro+e mig+t )e, an$+ow little we know a)out w+at a&tions mig+t trigger one. But t+e ao&al5ti& visionis less &re$i)le to$a5 t+an it seeme$ in t+e 19L0s. Alt+oug+ it is &lear t+at t+e eart+is e;erien&ing a mass wave o8 e;tin&tions, t+e &omlete elimination o8 li8e on eart+seems unlikel5. i8e is remarka)l5 ro)ust. Nor is +uman e;tin&tion ro)a)le an5time soon. (omo saiens is a$ata)le to nearl5 an5 environment. Even i8 t+e worl$o8 t+e 8uture in&lu$es 8ar 8ewer se&ies, it likel5 will +ol$ eole. !ne resonse tot+is &re$i)ilit5 ro)lem tones t+e stor5 $own a )it, arguing not t+at +umans will goe;tin&t )ut t+at e&ologi&al $isrution will )ring e&onomies, an$ &onseuentl5&iviliHations, to t+eir knees. But t+is too ma5 )e overstating t+e &ase. 'ost



e&os5stem 8un&tions are er8orme$ )5 multile se&ies. :+is 8un&tional re$un$an&5means t+at a +ig+ roortion o8 se&ies &an )e lost wit+out re&iitating a &ollase .

@iodiversity is resilient$ '2W loss of s#ecies leaves 80W of

diversityDALLAS MORNING NEWS 10$/K$1997

Even t+oug+ oulations are $isaearing ui&kl5, (ug+es sai$ t+at t+e se&on$&ien&e aer is a )rig+t sot in all t+is, $es&ri)ing +ow the tree of life could

survive serious #runing. Even i8 9< er&ent o8 all se&ies are lost, 0 er&ent o8t+e un$erl5ing evolutionar5 +istor5 remains inta&t, write Nee an$ ir Ro)ert 'a5,also a )iologist at !;8or$. :+e s&ientists &ame u wit+ euations to $es&ri)e +owmu&+ evolutionar5 +istor5 woul$ remain a8ter some se&ies went e;tin&t. An$ t+e58oun$ t+at it $i$n^t reall5 matter w+et+er t+e5 kille$ oM se&ies at ran$om or in aarti&ular attern. D+oosing arti&ular se&ies to save $i$n^t reserve mu&+ more

evolutionar5 +istor5 t+an saving se&ies at ran$om, t+e resear&+ s+ows. :+e work+as imli&ations 8or &onservation )iologists, w+o struggle wit+ &+oosing w+i&+se&ies are t+e most imortant to rote&t. >t turns out t+at it reall5 $oesn^t make aw+ole lot o8 $iMeren&e, r. Nee sai$.

@iodiversity isnt !ey to ecosystems – scienti*c consensus

agrees

Calgary Heral, ugust <0, 1997

E&ologists +ave long maintaine$ t+at $iversit5 is one o8 nature^s greatest strengt+s,

)ut new resear&+ suggests t+at $iversit5 alone $oes not guarantee stronge&os5stems. >n =n$ings t+at &oul$ intensi85 t+e $e)ate over en$angere$ se&iesan$ +a)itat &onservation, t+ree new stu$ies suggest a greater a)un$an&e o8 lantan$ animal varieties $oesn^t alwa5s translate to )etter e&ologi&al +ealt+. At leasteuall5 imortant, t+e resear&+ 8oun$, are t+e t5es o8 se&ies an$ +ow t+e58un&tion toget+er. (aving a long list o8 atin names isn^t alwa5s )etter t+an as+orter list o8 atin names, sai$ tan8or$ niversit5 )iologist #eter Qitousek, &oaut+or o8 one o8 t+e stu$ies u)lis+e$ in t+e %ournal &ien&e. earate e;erimentsin Dali8ornia, 'innesota an$ we$en, 8oun$ t+at $iversit5 o8ten +a$ little )earing ont+e er8orman&e o8 e&os5stems at least as measure$ )5 t+e growt+ an$ +ealt+ o8native lants. >n 8a&t, t+e &ommunities wit+ t+e greatest )iologi&al ri&+ness were

o8ten t+e oorest w+en it &ame to ro$u&tivit5 an$ t+e &5&ling o8 nutrients. !nestu$5 &omare$ lant li8e on <0 remote islan$s in nort+ern we$en t+at are roneto 8reuent wil$=res 8rom lig+tning strikes. &ientist avi$ 3ar$le o8 an$&areResear&+ in in&oln, New ]ealan$, an$ &olleagues at t+e we$is+ niversit5 o8Agri&ultural &ien&es, 8oun$ t+at islan$s $ominate$ )5 a 8ew se&ies o8 lantsre&overe$ more ui&kl5 t+an near)5 islan$s wit+ greater )iologi&al $iversit5. imilar=n$ings were reorte$ )5 niversit5 o8 'innesota resear&+ers w+o stu$ie$savanna+ grasses, an$ )5 tan8or$^s Qitousek an$ &olleague avi$ (ooer, w+o



&on&lu$e$ t+at 8un&tional &+ara&teristi&s o8 lant se&ies were more imortant t+ant+e num)er o8 varieties in $etermining +ow e&os5stems er8orme$. Britis+ lante&ologist J.#. rime, in a &ommentar5 summariHing t+e resear&+, sai$ t+ere is as 5etno &onvin&ing evi$en&e t+at se&ies $iversit5 an$ e&os5stem 8un&tion are&onsistentl5 an$ &ausall5 relate$. >t &oul$ )e argue$, +e a$$e$, t+at t+e ti$e is

turning against t+e notion o8 +ig+ )io$iversit5 as a &ontroller o8 e&os5stem 8un&tionan$ insuran&e against e&ologi&al &ollase .

7ulti#le alt causes to biod loss

Da!ly S"ar /91290# J#g. htt#=99+++.thedailystar.net9story.#h#M

nid/<<'2L

Bio$iversit5 is $isaearing 8rom t+e natural e&os5stems o8 8orests, savanna+s,astures an$ rangelan$s, $eserts, tun$ras, rivers, lakes an$ seas .:+is is largel5 t+eresult o8 +uman a&tivit5 an$ reresents a serious t+reat to +uman $eveloment. :o

rote&t t+ese re&ious resour&es 8or +uman kin$ various environmental&onservation organisations are working worl$wi$e.

)imeframe is decades a+ay

H!$u 191'90# J#g.

htt#=99+++.hindu.com9/00890191'9stories9/008011'2&800200.h

tmL

Bio$iversit5 is )eing lost more rai$l5 now t+an at an5 time in t+e ast severalmillion 5ears, sai$ . Kannai5an, &+airman, National Bio$iversit5 Aut+orit5 o8 >n$ia

+ere on Cri$a5. >naugurating a t+ree$a5 &on8eren&e on 6Bio$iversit5, Bioresour&esan$ Biote&+nolog5 8or ustaina)le iveli+oo$ o8 Rural Dommunit57, r. Kannai5ansai$ )iologists )elieve$ t+at a)out /0,000 o8 t+e worl$7s 2.40 lak+ lant se&ies an$more verte)rates an$ inse&t se&ies &oul$ )e&ome e;tin&t wit+in t+e ne;t ?0 5earsi8 t+e same tren$ &ontinue$. :+e &urrent rate o8 e;tin&tion $eman$e$ imme$iate&on&erte$ eMorts 8or &onservation o8 )io$iversit5 8or 8uture generations, +e sai$. >t+a$ )een re&ognise$ t+at valua)le an$ ro$u&tive )iologi&al resour&es were &ru&ial8or sustaina)le e&onomi& $eveloment, +e sai$.

China is !ey to biodiversity and it +ill decrease no+

As!a %!mes '9/0907 J#g.

htt#=99+++.atimes.com9atimes9ChinaV@usiness9--/0Cb0/.htmlL

D+ina ma5 )e going all out to save t+e an$a, )ut its re&or$ on rote&ting its native@ora an$ 8auna took a )eating last week w+en t+e 3orl$ Donservation nion >DN,or >nternational nion 8or t+e Donservation o8 Nature an$ Natural Resour&esFu)lis+e$ its latest Re$ ist o8 :+reatene$ e&ies. D+ina +as one o8 t+e +ig+est



levels o8 )io$iversit5 in t+e worl$, 5et its num)er o8 se&ies is $e&lining at a8rig+tening rate. :+e wiss)ase$ >DN i&ke$ out mainlan$ D+ina, along wit+'e;i&o, BraHil



/NC Ae$34tinction@iodiversity loss is reversible $ ne+ technologies allo+ us to

have de$e4tinction so scientists can bring animals +ho are

e4tinct bac!

Shreeve 1< Jamie +reeve, E;e&utive E$itor 8or &ien&e at National eogra+i&?<201?, e&ies Revival- +oul$ 3e Bring Ba&k E;tin&t Animals* Nationaleogra+i&, +tt-news.nationalgeogra+i&.&omnews201?0?1?0?0<s&ien&eanimalse;tin&tse&iesrevival$ee;tin&tion$e)atete$;, a&&esse$ L<14F

!r at least it +as )een, until now. Cor t+e =rst time, our own se&iesXt+e one t+at+as $one so mu&+ to &on$emn t+ose ot+er L9< to o)livionXma5 )e oise$ to )ringat least some o8 t+em )a&k. >ntera&tive ma- et a &lose look at 20 en$angere$se&ies in t+e ..F :+e Yuestion o8 ee;tin&tion :+e gat+ering awareness t+at we+ave arrive$ at t+is t+res+ol$ romte$ a grou o8 s&ientists an$ &onservationists tomeet at National eogra+i& +ea$uarters in 3as+ington, .D., last 5ear to $is&uss

t+e via)ilit5 o8 t+e s&ien&e an$ t+e maturit5 o8 t+e et+i&al argument surroun$ingw+at +as &ome to )e known as $ee;tin&tion. Ne;t week an e;an$e$ grou willre&onvene at National eogra+i& +ea$uarters in a u)li& :E; &on8eren&e.

#eole were 8antasiHing a)out reviving e;tin&t 8orms o8 li8e long )e8ore (oll5woo$em)e$$e$ t+e i$ea into our &olle&tive &ons&iousness wit+ Jurassi& #ark. Dan wereall5 $o it An$ i8 we &an, w+5 s+oul$ we :+e =rst uestion woul$ seem to +ave astraig+t8orwar$, i8 +ar$l5 simle, answer. &ienti=& $evelomentsXrin&iall5a$van&es in &loning te&+nologies an$ new met+o$s o8 not onl5 rea$ing NA, )utwriting itXmake it mu&+ easier to &on&o&t a geneti& aro;imation o8 an e;tin&tse&ies, so long as NA &an )e retrieve$ 8rom a reserve$ se&imen.

&ien&e solves )io$iversit5 loss G new te&+ allows us to )ring e;tin&t animals )a&k

@rand 1< JSte+art @rand, Science +riter for National :eogra#hic, Co$founder of

the long no+ science foundation and the creator of the +hole earth catalog, <$11$1<, "#inion= )he Case for 6eviving 34tinct S#ecies, National :eogra#hic,

htt#=99ne+s.nationalgeogra#hic.com9ne+s9/01<90<91<0<11$dee4tinction$reviving$e4tinct$s#ecies$o#inion$animals$science9M

r#tregctaregVfreeVn#Or#tregcam#aign/01>0&/<Vt/Vr+Vmembershi#Vr1#VusVseV+, accessed K$2$1>L

'an5 e;tin&t se&iesX8rom t+e assenger igeon to t+e wooll5 mammot+Xmig+tnow )e re&lassi=e$ as )o$il5, )ut not geneti&all5, e;tin&t. :+e5^re $ea$, )ut t+eirNA is re&overa)le 8rom museum se&imens an$ 8ossils, even t+ose u to 200,0005ears ol$. :+anks to new $eveloments in geneti& te&+nolog5, t+at NA ma5eventuall5 )ring t+e animals )a&k to li8e. !nl5 se&ies w+ose NA is too ol$ to )ere&overe$, su&+ as $inosaurs, are t+e ones to &onsi$er totall5 e;tin&t, )o$il5 an$geneti&all5. But w+5 )ring vanis+e$ &reatures )a&k to li8e >t will )e e;ensive an$



$iO&ult. >t will take $e&a$es. >t won^t alwa5s su&&ee$. 3+5 even tr5 3+5 $o wetake enormous trou)le to rote&t en$angere$ se&ies :+e same reasons will al5to se&ies )roug+t )a&k 8rom e;tin&tion- to reserve )io$iversit5, to restore$iminis+e$ e&os5stems, to a$van&e t+e s&ien&e o8 reventing e;tin&tions, an$ toun$o +arm t+at +umans +ave &ause$ in t+e ast. Curt+ermore, t+e rose&t o8 $e

e;tin&tion is ro8oun$ news. :+at somet+ing as irreversi)le an$ =nal as e;tin&tionmig+t )e reverse$ is a stunning realiHation. :+e imagination soars. Just t+e t+oug+to8 mammot+s an$ assenger igeons alive again invokes t+e awe an$ won$er t+at$rives all &onservation at its $eeest level. :+en, t+ere^s t+e ower o8 goo$ news.

:+e >nternational nion 8or Donservation o8 Nature is a$$ing to its 8amous Re$ isto8 en$angere$ se&ies a air o8 reen ists. !ne will $es&ri)e se&ies t+at are$oing =ne as well as se&ies t+at were in trou)le an$ are now $oing )etter, t+anksto eMe&tive eMorts to +el t+em. :+e ot+er list will $es&ri)e rote&te$ wil$ lan$s int+e worl$ t+at are arti&ularl5 well manage$. Donservationists are learning t+e)ene=ts o8 )uil$ing +oe an$ )uil$ing on +oe. e&ies )roug+t )a&k 8rome;tin&tion will )e )ea&ons o8 +oe. #i&tures- E;tin&t e&ies t+at Doul$ )e Broug+tBa&k.F se8ul s&ien&e will also emerge. Dlose e;amination o8 t+e genomes o8e;tin&t se&ies &an tell us mu&+ a)out w+at ma$e t+em vulnera)le in t+e =rstla&e. 3ere t+e5 in a )ottlene&k wit+ too little geneti& varia)ilit5 (ow were t+e5$iMerent 8rom &lose relatives t+at survive$ iving se&imens will reveal evenmore. :e&+niues )eing $eveloe$ 8or $ee;tin&tion will also )e $ire&tl5 ali&a)leto living se&ies t+at are &lose to e;tin&tion. :in5 oulations &an +ave t+eir geneti&varia)ilit5 restore$. A se&ies wit+ a geneti& A&+illes^ +eel mig+t )e totall5 &ure$wit+ an a$%ustment intro$u&e$ t+roug+ &loning. Cor instan&e, t+e transmissi)le&an&er on t+e 8a&es o8 :asmanian $evils is t+oug+t to )e &ause$ )5 a single gene.

:+at gene &an )e silen&e$ in a generation o8 t+e animals release$ to t+e wil$. :+e&an&er woul$ $isaear in t+e wil$ soon a8ter, )e&ause t+e immune animals won^ttransmit it, an$ animals wit+ t+e immunit5 will outrero$u&e t+e sus&eti)le untilt+e entire oulation is immune. ome e;tin&t se&ies were imortantke5stones in t+eir region. Restoring t+em woul$ +el restore a great $eal o8e&ologi&al ri&+ness.



3nvironmental Peadershi# Core



1NC 3nvironmental Peadershi# Frontline)here is no correlation bet+een environmental leadershi# and

hegemony$military dominance trades o5 +ith environmental

issues.

Fal!ner 2 ;11$18$1>, 6obert Fal!ner is a member of theAe#artment of -nternational 6elations at the Pondon School of

3conomics, merican %egemony and the :lobal

3nvironment, +tt-onlineli)rar5.wile5.&om$oi10.1111%.14/24/.200<.00<?4.;8ullq, %6?

At a &on&etual level, stru&tural a&&ounts em+asiHing t+e role o8 +egemons +ave )een&riti&iHe$ 8or rovi$ing onl5 a artial e;lanation o8 international &ooeration at )estor 8or ignoring t+e issuese&i=& &+ara&teristi&s o8 international environmentaloliti&s. Soung 1994F +as argue$ t+at t+e uestion o8 trans8era)ilit5 or su)stituta)ilit5 o8$iMerent 8orms o8 ower limits t+e ali&a)ilit5 o8 +egemoni& t+eor5 in t+e =el$ o8environmental rote&tion. :+e nite$ tates ma5 )e t+e unrivale$ militar5suerower at t+e )eginning o8 t+e twent5=rst &entur5, )ut t+ere is little reason to)elieve t+at militar5 ower +as mu&+ relevan&e in t+e negotiations o8 denvironmental regimes* Soung 1994-1?/F. >n a similar vein, aret+ #orter an$ Janet 3els+ Brown

199/-1<F state- lo)al environmental oliti&s $o not give rise to a +egemoni& ower int+e tra$itional sense o8 a state wit+ t+e a)ilit5 to use militar5 ower to &oer&e ot+erstate s into a&&eting t+e +egemon^s osition. :+ere is no ositive &orrelation)etween $ominant militar5 ower an$ lea$ers+i on glo)al environmental issuesX

an$ t+ere ma5 )e a negative &orrelation )etween t+e two in t+at +ig+ levels o8militar5 sen$ing $ivert =nan&ial resour&es 8rom environmental issues.

"ther countries *ll$inhegemony is not necessary to #revent+ar.

reble and Friedman 10 X D+risto+er #re)le, ire&tor o8 Coreign #oli&5

tu$ies at t+e Dato >nstitute, serve$ as a &ommissione$ oO&er in t+e .. Nav5,+ol$s a #+.. in (istor5 8rom :emle niversit5, an$ Ben%amin (. Crie$man,Resear&+ Cellow in e8ense an$ (omelan$ e&urit5 tu$ies at t+e Dato >nstitute,#+.. Dan$i$ate in #oliti&al &ien&e at t+e 'assa&+usetts >nstitute o8 :e&+nolog5,2010 A .. e8ense Bu$get 3ort+5 o8 >ts Name,* $he loalist , Novem)er 1t+,Availa)le !nline at +tt-www.&ato.orgu)V$isla5.+u)Vi$T12<2, A&&esse$010L2011F

Anot+er argument 8or +ig+ militar5 sen$ing is t+at .. militar5 rima&5 un$erliesglo)al sta)ilit5. A&&or$ing to t+is t+eor5, our 8or&es an$ allian&e &ommitments $amen &on@i&t )etween

otential rivals, reventing t+em 8rom =g+ting wars t+at woul$ $isrut tra$e. :+is logi& li)erates $e8ense lanning8rom ol$8as+ione$ &onsi$erations like enemies an$ t+e )alan&e o8 ower. >t sees t+e reuirements o8 glo)al oli&ingas t+e )asis 8or t+e siHe o8 t+e .. militar5. :+at is no stan$ar$ at all, w+i&+ is w+5 +awks em)ra&e it. Boun$less

o)%e&tives %usti85 limitless &osts. :+at argument overestimates )ot+ t+e Ameri&an militar5^s&ontri)ution to international sta)ilit5 an$ t+e $anger t+at insta)ilit5 a)roa$ oses toAmeri&ans. .. 8or&e $elo5ments in Euroe an$ Asia now contribute little to

#eace , at )est making alrea$5 low o$$s o8 war among states slightly lo+er. >nertia,

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2005.00534.x/full#b41

















rat+er t+an our se&urit5 reuirements, e;lains t+e erseveran&e o8 .. militar5 allian&es. uring t+e Dol$3ar, Jaan, 3estern Euroe an$ out+ Korea grew wealt+5 enoug+ to $e8en$t+emselves. 3e s+oul$ let t+em $o so. :+ese allian&es +eig+ten our 8or&ereuirements an$ t+reaten to $rag us into wars, w+ile rovi$ing no o)vious )ene=t.3it+out our 8or&es t+ere, our allies woul$ a5 t+e &ost o8 balancing local

adversaries.

Numerous domestic factors ma!e hegemony unsustainable

education, infrastructure, health care, income inequality,

#overty, and #olitical gridloc! are the foundation of merican

#o+er

Cohen 1/X'i&+ael A. Do+en is a regular &olumnist 8or Coreign #oli&5 an$ a 8ellow

at t+e Dentur5 Coun$ation. Rotting Crom t+e >nsi$e !ut,* #u)lis+e$ !nline 8orForeign /olicy on Ce)ruar5 24, 2012, Availa)le !nline at+tt-www.8oreignoli&5.&omarti&les20120221rottingV8romVt+eVinsi$eVoutF

:+ere is, +owever, one serious ro)lem wit+ t+is anal5sis. An5 $is&ussion o8 Ameri&an nationalse&urit5 t+at 8o&uses solel5 on t+e issue o8 .. ower visvis ot+er &ountries and ignores domestic in#uts is $e&i$e$l5 in&omlete. >n Kagan^s New Reu)li& arti&le,

8or e;amle, +e +as little to sa5 a)out t+e &ountr5^s $omesti& &+allenges e;&et to o)liuel5 argue t+at to 8o&us onnation)uil$ing at +ome w+ile ignoring t+e imortan&e o8 maintaining .. ower a)roa$ woul$ )e a mistake. >n8a&t, in a re&ent C# $e)ate wit+ t+e Cinan&ial :imes^ i$eon Ra&+man on t+e issue o8 Ameri&an $e&line, Kagan$iagnoses w+at +e, an$ man5 ot+er oliti&al anal5sts, aear to )elieve is t+e &ountr5^s most serious ro)lem-enormous =s&al $e=&its $riven )5 entitlements. 3+5 is t+is )a$ >t makes it +ar$er, sa5s Kagan, 8or t+e nite$tates to &ontinue la5ing its vital role in t+e worl$ an$ will lea$ to signi=&ant &ut)a&ks in $e8ense sen$ing.

(owever, a 8o&us on .. glo)al $ominan&e or suasion t+at $oesn^t 8a&tor in t+oseelements t+at &onstitute Ameri&an ower at +ome ignores su)stantial an$worsening signs o8 $e&line . >n$ee$, )5 virtuall5 an5 measure, a &loser look at t+e stateo8 t+e nite$ tates to$a5 tells a so)ering tale o8 rai$ an$ un&+e&ke$ $e&a5 an$

$eterioration in a +ost o8 areas. 3+ile not all o8 t+em are generall5 &onsi$ere$ elementso8 national se&urit5, er+as t+e5 s+oul$ )e. et^s start wit+ education, w+i&+ almost an5

o)server woul$ agree is a !ey factor in national com#etitiveness. :+e $ata is notgoo$ . A&&or$ing to t+e most re&ent !ED reort on glo)al e$u&ation stan$ar$s, t+e nite$ tates is an

average &ountr5 in +ow it e$u&ates its &+il$ren 12t+ in rea$ing skills, 1Lt+ in s&ien&e, an$2/t+ in mat+. :+e 3orl$ E&onomi& Corum ranks t+e nite$ tates 4t+ in t+e ualit5 o8 itsmat+emati&s an$ s&ien&e e$u&ation, even t+oug+ we sen$ more mone5 er stu$ent t+an almost an5 &ountr5

in t+e worl$. Ameri&a^s +ig+ s&+ool gra$uation rate is lower to$a5 t+at it was in t+e late19/0s an$ ki$s are now less likel5 to gra$uate 8rom +ig+ s&+ool t+an t+eir arents,a&&or$ing to an anal5sis release$ last 5ear )5 t+e E$itorial #ro%e&ts in E$u&ation Resear&+ Denter. >n 8a&t, not onl5 is

t+e gra$uation rate worse t+an man5 3estern &ountries , t+e nite$ tates is now

t+e onl5 $eveloe$ &ountr5 w+ere a +ig+er er&entage o8 << to /45earol$s +ave a+ig+ s&+ool $iloma t+an 2< to ?45earol$s. 3+ile t+e nite$ tates still maintains t+e worl$^s

=nest universit5 s5stem, &ollege gra$uation rates are sliing. Among 2< to ?45earol$s, Ameri&a

trails Australia, Belgium, Dana$a, enmark, Cran&e, >relan$, >srael, Jaan, out+ Korea, u;em)ourg, New ]ealan$,Norwa5, we$en, an$ t+e nite$ King$om in its er&entage o8 &ollege gra$uates. :+is seaks, in some measure, tot+e $isarities t+at are en$emi& in t+e .. e$u&ation s5stem. >8 5ou are oor in Ameri&a, &+an&es are 5ou atten$ as&+ool t+at un$erer8orms, are taug+t )5 tea&+ers t+at are not as eMe&tive, an$ +ave test s&ores t+at lag 8ar )e+in$5our more acuent &ounterarts t+e same is true i8 5ou are )la&k or (isani& 5ou lag )e+in$ 5our w+ite

&ounterartsF. Can a country be a great global #o+er if its education system is

fundamentally unequal and is getting steadily +orseM 3+at a)out national



infrastructure anot+er ke5 element o8 national e&onomi& ower an$ glo)al &ometitiveness Cirst, t+e

nation^s )roa$)an$ enetration rates remain in t+e mi$$le o8 t+e glo)al a&k an$ t+ere is

growing $ivi$e in t+e nite$ tates )etween $igital +aves an$ +ave nots. !verall, its transortationnetworks are me$io&re &omare$ to similarl5 wealt+5 &ountries an$ a&&or$ing to t+e 3orl$ E&onomi&

Corum, the United States ran!s /<rd in the "3CA for infrastructure quality a

ranking t+at +as stea$il5 $e&line$ over t+e ast $e&a$e. Ameri&an &ommuters sen$ more time intraO& t+an 3estern Euroeans, t+e &ountr5^s train s5stem an$ +ig+see$ rail lines in general

ale ne;t to t+at o8 ot+er $eveloe$ nations, an$ even t+e num)er o8 eole kille$ on Ameri&an

+ig+wa5s is /0 er&ent +ig+er t+an t+e !ED average. #art o8 t+e ro)lem is t+at t+e amount o8 mone5 t+e ..government sen$s on in8rastru&ture +as stea$il5 $e&line$ 8or $e&a$es an$ now trails 8ar )e+in$ ot+er 3estern

nations. >n time, su&+ in8rastru&ture $isa$vantages +ave t+e otential to un$ermine t+e.. e&onom5 , +amstring ro$u&tivit5 an$ &ometitiveness , an$ ut t+e lives o8more Ameri&ans at risk an$ t+is aears to )e +aening alrea$5. Cinall5, a &loser loo! at theU.S. health care system is enoug+ to make one ill. Even a8ter t+e assage o8 !)ama^s 2010 +ealt+ &are

re8orm )ill w+i&+ ever5 Reu)li&an resi$ential &an$i$ate wants to reealF t+e nite$ tates is 8ar 8rom+aving a +ealt+ &are s5stem t+at meets t+e nee$s o8 its &itiHens. A&&or$ing to a Jul5 2011

reort )5 t+e Dommonwealt+ Cun$, t+e .. +as 8ewer +osital )e$s an$ +5si&ians, an$

sees 8ewer +osital an$ +5si&ian visits, t+an in most ot+er &ountries even t+oug+ itsen$s 8ar more on +ealt+ &are er &aita t+an an5 ot+er &ountr5 in t+e worl$. >n a$$ition, res&rition $rug

utiliHation, ri&es, an$ sen$ing all aear to )e +ig+est in t+e .., as $oes t+e sul5, utiliHation, an$ ri&e o8

$iagnosti& imaging. ong stor5 s+ort, t+e nite$ tates sen$s more 8or less on +ealt+ &aret+an rett5 mu&+ an5 ot+er $eveloe$ nation in t+e worl$. :+at mig+t also e;lain w+5 li8e

e;e&tan&5 in Ameri&a trails 8ar )e+in$ most !ED &ountries. :+e nite$ tates also +as t+e uniue$istin&tion o8 +aving one o8 t+e +ig+est rates o8 in&ome ineualit5 in t+e worl$, onar wit+ su&+ glo)al ower+ouses as Dameroon, 'a$agas&ar, Rwan$a, gan$a, an$ E&ua$or. >t+as t+e 8ourt+ worst &+il$ overt5 rate an$ trails onl5 'e;i&o an$ :urke5 in overallovert5 rate among !ED &ountries. An$ w+en it &omes to in8ant mortalit5, t+e .. rate isone o8 t+e worst in t+e $eveloing worl$. But not to 8ear, t+e nite$ tates still

maintains some a$vantages. Cor e;amle, it is one o8 t+e 8attest &ountries in t+e worl$,wit+ aro;imatel5 onet+ir$ o8 t+e &ountr5 &onsi$ere$ o)ese in&lu$ing one out o8 ever5 si;

&+il$renF. >n a$$ition, t+e nite$ tates +as, )5 8ar, t+e largest rison oulation more t+an

D+ina, >ran, an$ Du)a one o8 t+e +ig+est +omi&i$e rates in t+e worl$, an$ one o8 t+e +ig+estrates o8 $eat+ 8rom &+il$ a)use an$ negle&t. :+is stea$5 stream o8 woe is &ertainl5 $isiriting, )ut

t+e more otimisti& mig+t )e in&line$ to reson$ t+at Ameri&a +a$ +as ro)lems )e8ore an$ +as alwa5s 8oun$ a

wa5 to rig+t t+e s+i. Dertainl5, t+is is a legitimate &ounteroint. :+e ro)lem is t+at an5one looking to3as+ington to$a5 woul$ +ave a +ar$ time imagining t+at Dongress an$ t+e 3+ite(ouse will lo&k arms an5time soon an$ =; t+ese various national &rises . An$ t+is#olitical gridloc! is the biggest reason to be concerned about decline.

#er+as at no oint in re&ent Ameri&an +istor5 +as t+e &ountr5^s oliti&s )een less&aa)le o8 $ealing wit+ serious &+allenges. Dertainl5, w+en one art5 )asi&all5 re%e&ts an5 role 8or

t+e 8e$eral government in rovi$ing +ealt+ &are, imroving e$u&ational oortunit5, or strengt+ening t+e so&ialsa8et5 net, t+e &+an&es 8or &omromise aear even slimmer. As (arol$ #olla&k, a ro8essor at t+e niversit5 o8D+i&ago, sai$ to me, 3+at 8uture resi$ent, witnessing Bara&k !)ama^s $iO&ulties over +ealt+ re8orm, will make

an euivalent oliti&al investment regar$ing &limate &+ange or anot+er great national &on&ern > 8ear t+at we are+ea$e$ 8or a kin$ o8 legislative Qietnam s5n$rome in w+i&+ our lea$ers will s+5awa5 8rom t+e large t+ings t+at must )e $one. !)ama argue$ in +is re&ent tate o8 t+e nion

see&+ t+at innovation is w+at Ameri&a +as alwa5s )een a)out. >n$ee$, t+e re&ent reort o8 t+e >n8ormation :e&+nolog5 an$ >nnovation Coun$ation 8oun$ t+at t+e nite$ tates is &urrentl5 si;t+ in glo)al innovation an$

&ometitiveness. oo$ news, rig+t Not so 8ast. :+e reort also 8oun$ t+at t+e &ountr5 is $ea$ last in



imrovement in international &ometitiveness an$ innovation &aa&it5 over t+elast $e&a$e. Bottom line- dysfunction rea#s an ill re+ard. Kagan^s retort to t+is argument is

t+at on man5 )ig issues t+roug+out t+eir +istor5, Ameri&ans +ave 8oun$ a wa5 o8 a&+ieving an$ imlementing anational &onsensus. :rue, )ut t+e +iloso+i&al $ivi$e )etween t+e two arties over t+e role o8 government oMers

little reason 8or otimism t+at su&+ a new national &onsensus is in t+e oOng. :+e 8a&t is, discussions of

U.S. #o+er that only ta!e into account mericaYs global standing in

relation to other countries are not only misleading $$ theyYre largelyirrelevant. ure, Ameri&a +as a )igger an$ )etter militar5 t+an ra&ti&all5 ever5ot+er nation &om)ine$. ure, it +as a )etter glo)al image t+an Russia or D+ina or an5 ot+er otential

glo)al rival. ure, Ameri&a^s e&onom5 is )igger t+an an5 ot+er nation^s t+oug+ t+is is a $e)ata)le ointF. @utif its students arenYt being +ell educated , if huge dis#arities e4ist in

technological ado#tion, if social mobility remains stagnant, if the countryYs

health care system is #oorly functioning, and if its government isho#elessly gridloc!ed, +hat good is all the global #o+er that trans*4es

Gagan and others :+e even more urgent uestion is +ow the United States can

ho#e to maintain that #o+er if itYs built on a sha!y foundation at home.Rat+er t+an talking a)out +ow great Ameri&a is on t+e &amaign trail w+i&+ surel5 )ot+ &an$i$ates will $ot+roug+out t+e 2012 ele&tion t+e &ountr5 woul$ likel5 )e )etter oM +aving an +onest $is&ussion on t+e immense

&+allenges t+at it 8a&es at +ome. Even more +el8ul woul$ )e a re&ognition t+at e$u&ation, +ealt+&are, in8rastru&ture, an$ overall national e&onomi& &ometitiveness is as essentialto .. national se&urit5 as, 8or e;amle, t+e num)er o8 s+is in t+e .. Nav5. All t+is talka)out t+e m5t+ o8 Ameri&an $e&line mig+t make Ameri&ans 8eel )etter a)outt+emselves 8or a w+ile, )ut it is a $istra&tion 8rom t+e real an$ $e&lining elements o8 .. ower.

6atifying environment treaties !ey to global environmental

leadershi#$ alt cause the a5 cant solve

Gno4 1/$ Jo+n Kno;, (enr5 D. auerman #ro8essor o8 >nternational aw at 3ake

Corest niversit5, a$visor to t+e N (uman Rig+ts Doun&il, t+e 3orl$ Bank, an$ t+eovernment o8 t+e 'al$ives on t+e relations+i )etween &limate &+ange an$+uman rig+ts law, 2012 Re&laiming lo)al Environmental ea$ers+i,* Denter 8or#rogressive Re8orm, Januar5 20t+, Availa)le online at+tt-www.rogressivere8orm.orgD#RBlog.&8mi$BlogTCB91<?C2ABCE?DC20<?EAC1E929B, A&&esse$ L114F

Rati85ing t+ese treaties woul$n7t )e onerous or e;ensive, an$ none o8 t+e agreements woul$ reuire ma%or

&+anges to .. law or ero$e our sovereignt5. >n 8a&t, t+e 8ailure to rati85 t+e agreements +armsour national interests . :+e treaties re@e&t .. roosals an$ ositions an$ are a ro$u&t o8 negotiations

an$ )rokering )5 our ast a$ministrations. B5 8ailing to %oin t+e treaties, t+e nite$ tates isnot taking a$vantage o8 t+e )ene=ts 8or w+i&+ it negotiate $, in&lu$ing )eing a)le to

make &laims to t+e resour&eri&+ &ontinental s+el8 oM t+e .. &oast, re$u&ingmarine ollution aMe&ting .. waters, an$ ensuring .. a&&ess to 8oreign lantgene )anks. :+e 8ailure to rati85 t+e agreements also revents t+e nite$ tates8rom 8ull5 arti&iating in t+eir ongoing interretation an$ imlementation , w+i&+o8ten involve issues t+at $ire&tl5 aMe&t t+e nite$ tates.

:+e 8ailure to %oin t+e treaties also un$ermines glo)al environmental rote&tion .everal o8 t+e environmental treaties are among t+e most wi$el5 rati=e$ treaties in+istor5, strongl5 suorte$ )5 our &losest allies. >n ever5 &ase, t+e regimes t+ese

http://www.progressivereform.org/CPRBlog.cfm?idBlog=FB9153F2-ABFE-3CF2-8053EAF1ED929DB8






treaties +ave esta)lis+e$ are less su&&ess8ul wit+out .. mem)ers+i t+an t+e5&oul$ )e wit+ t+e 8ull engagement o8 t+e &ountr5 wit+ t+e largest e&onom5 an$ t+elargest environmental ima&t. >n s+ort, t+e nite$ t ates is a)$i&ating its +istori& roleas t+e lea$er in eMorts to rote&t t+e glo)al environment.Dall me a $reamer, )ut it $oesn7t nee$ to )e t+is wa5. Alt+oug+ t+is Dongress an$ t+e !)ama

a$ministration +ave )een una)le to agree on mu&+, t+e5 +ave )een a)le to &ometoget+er on some +ig+ ro=le treaties, in&lu$ing t+e New :AR: treat5 wit+ Russia an$ tra$e

agreements wit+ Dolum)ia, #anama, an$ out+ Korea. >n t+e same sirit, Dongress an$ t+e !)amaa$ministration s+oul$ reinvigorate eMorts to rati85 t+ese ten environmental treaties,so t+at t+e nite$ tates &an re&laim glo)al environmental lea$ers+i on t+eseissues. Ses, we &an.

China +ill *ll in for global environmental leadershi#

Piu 1<$ #egg5 iu, D+airerson o8 JDDDE, lea$s a &oalition to &atal5He smart gri$,

sustaina)le &ities an$ &onsumerism, an$ 8oster international &olla)oration wit+D+ina, a$visor to 'U an$ (# an$ t+e 3EC lo)al Agen$a Doun&il on ustaina)leDonsumtion, an$ a 3EC Soung lo)al ea$er, 201? D(>NA > A '!E C!R!>N REEN E#>:E 3(A: S! REAF,* Ensia, etem)er 10t+, Availa)le onlineat +tt-ensia.&omvoi&es&+inaisamo$el8orgoinggreen$esitew+at5ourea$,A&&esse$ L114F

etem)er 10, 201? X Even t+oug+ D+ina7s skies are gra5 an$ waters run re$, t+ere is &ause 8or +oet+at t+e &ountr57s long green mar&+* will +ave a )lue sk5 en$ing X t+anks to t+euniue wa5 D+ina $elo5s new &lean te&+nologies an$ ra&ti&es . in&e oening to t+e

3est, D+ina +as $eveloe$ a re=ne$ ro&ess o8 iloting at &it5 s&ale. :o$a5 t+ese lo&aliloting eMorts allow D+ina, more t+an an5 ot+er &ountr5, to ui&kl5 tr5 newenvironmental an$ sustaina)le initiatives an$ move su&&ess8ul ones towar$ wi$erimlementation. :+e +istor5 o8 t+ese eMorts $ates )a&k to 19L9 , w+en D+ina intro$u&e$

t+ree e&onomi& $eveloment Hones t+at e;erimente$ lo&all5 wit+ i$eas su&+ as lo&al ele&tions an$internationaliHation o8 &urren&ies. :+e su&&ess o8 t+ose initial t+ree Hones le$ to t+ee;ansion o8 t+e Hones to 14 &ities in 194. :o$a5 t+ere are 2<? e&onomi&$eveloment Hones a&ross t+e &ountr5. u&+ &it5level e;erimentation +as $rivenrogress a&ross D+ina, an$ is now )eing use$ 8or a )roa$ range o8 sustaina)lete&+nolog5 an$ oli&5 ilots. An$ t+is +as all taken la&e $uring a 405earur)aniHation surt. D+ina is now )uil$ing t+e euivalent o8 ever5 )uil$ing in Dana$aea&+ 5ear X or +al8 t+e new &onstru&tion worl$wi$e a)out 2 )illion suare meters annuall5F.

D+ina is t+rowing sag+etti at t+e wall , so to seak, one &it5 at a time to see w+i&+ e&omo$els work, an$ is s5stemati&all5 $oing so wit+ ever5 romising green te&+nolog5X moving 8rom ilots to $emonstrations to &ommer&ialiHation. At :E;D+D+, > soke a)out

+ow t+is is &+anging t+e &ountr5 8rom t+e 8a&tor5 o8 t+e worl$ to t+e &lean te&+la)orator5 o8 t+e worl$, an$ t+e onl5 &ountr5 a)le to e;eriment wit+ green mo$elson a gigas&ale.

3nvironmental leadershi# high no+$ "bamas Q" solves

@@C Ne+s &91K$ BBD News, 2014 E;ansion o8 marine rote&te$ Hone

&oul$ $ou)le worl$ reserves,* 'att '&rat+, June 1Lt+, Availa)le online at+tt-www.))&.&omnewss&ien&eenvironment2L900L2, A&&esse$ L114F

http://ensia.com/voices/china-is-a-model-for-going-green-despite-what-you-read/

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27890072

http://ensia.com/voices/china-is-a-model-for-going-green-despite-what-you-read/




!&ean &amaigners +ave wel&ome$ t+e new lan as an imortant ste. :+is isin&re$i)l5 signi=&ant an$ s+ows glo)al lea$ers+i 8rom t+e on t+is issue sai$ Karen

a&k 8rom t+e #ew D+arita)le :rusts. :+ere is an amaHing arra5 o8 )io$iversit5 aroun$ t+ese islan$s, t+ere are sea

mount s5stems wit+ a lot o8 $ee sea se&ies, all t5es o8 marine mammals. 'arine #rote&te$ Areas&urrentl5 make u aroun$ 2.Z o8 t+e worl$^s o&eans )ut Karen a&k sa5s t+e areas t+at+ave a 8ull )an on =s+ing, $rilling an$ ot+er a&tivities are mu&+ smaller, w+i&+in&reases t+e signi=&an&e o8 t+e move . ess t+an 1Z o8 t+e glo)al o&ean is 8ull5 rote&te$, s+e

sai$. 3+ile t+is area ma5 )e 8ar awa5 8rom an5w+ere t+e $esignation a$$s to t+eart o8 t+e o&ean t+at is rote&te$ in t+is wa5 w+i&+ is &riti&al . Donserving marine se&ies

isn^t %ust t+e reserve o8 large nations like t+e . >n re&ent $a5s t+e tin5 Reu)li& o8 Kiri)atiannoun&e$ t+at t+e #+oeni; >slan$s #rote&te$ Area, will &lose to all &ommer&ial=s+ing )5 t+e en$ o8 2014. :+is =s+ing Hone, w+i&+ is &lose to t+e newl5 e;ten$e$ '#A, is wit+in a region t+at is +ome to t+e largest remaining sto&ks o8 tuna onEart+.



/NC %eg UnsustainableAecline is inevitable – +ars, soft #o+er, defense s#ending,

China rise

:eeraerts 11 [ustaa8, ro8essor o8 international relations at t+e Qri%e

niversiteit Brussel an$ $ire&tor o8 t+e Brussels >nstitute o8 Dontemorar5 D+inatu$ies, Euroean Review, Qol. 19, No. 1, <LG/L, 2011, D+ina, t+e E, an$ t+e New'ultiolarit5,* +tt-www.vu).a&.)e)i&&ssiteassets=lesaaersD+ina,Z20t+eZ20EZ20an$Z20'ultiolarit52.$8 3

:+e stru&ture o8 t+e international s5stem is &+anging wit+ t+e evaoration o8 Ameri&a7s uniolar moment. 6 :+e$e&line o8 .. rima&5 an$ t+e su)seuent transition to a multiolar worl$ areinevita)le,7 3ang Jisi wrote in 2004. 2 'ore re&entl5 Jo+n >ken)err5 state$ t+at 6 :+e nite$ tates766uniolar moment77 will inevita)l5 en$.7 ? Not onl5 +as t+e in@uen&e o8 t+e lonel5suerower severel5 )een aMe&te$ )5 t+e e;ensive wars in >ra an$ A8g+anistanWits e&onomi& &lout too +as $e&line$ 8aster t+an ever )e8ore an$ its so8t ower isin&reasingl5 &onteste$. At t+e same time, D+ina is un$enia)l5 )e&oming a glo)al ower.

in&e t+e &autious oening u o8 D+ina7s $oor )5 eng _iaoing in 19L, +er e&onom5 +as ua$rule$ in siHe an$

some e;e&t it to $ou)le again over t+e ne;t $e&a$e. D+ina is a)out to )e&ome t+e se&on$ mostimortant single e&onom5 in t+e worl$. At t+e most re&ent 20 meeting in #itts)urg+, (u

Jintao, D+ina7s resi$ent was t+e onl5 one to arrive at t+e +ea$ o8 a ma%or e&onom5still en%o5ing strong growt+, +aving t+e lu;ur5 o8 su)stantial =nan&ial reserves. But D+ina is notonl5 growing e&onomi&all5, its militar5 &lout is also on t+e rise . 4 >n 200 D+inaevolve$ into t+e worl$7s se&on$ +ig+est militar5 sen$er. < >t is t+e onl5 &ountr5emerging )ot+ as a militar5 an$ e&onomi& rival o8 t+e an$ t+us generating a8un$amental s+i8t in t+e glo)al $istri)ution o8 ower an$ in@uen&e. u&+ ower transitions

are a re&urring +enomenon in international oliti&s an$ +ave alwa5s &onstitute$ eiso$es o8 un&ertaint5 an$+ig+er risk. :+e5 &ontain t+e see$s o8 =er&e strategi& rivalr5 )etween t+e uan$&oming state an$ t+e resi$inglea$ing ower, t+ere)5 in&reasing t+e likeli+oo$ o8 &ontention an$ &on@i&t. No won$er t+at D+ina7s se&ta&ular

e&onomi& growt+ an$ in&reasingl5 assertive $iloma&5 +ave in&ite$ ot+er ke5la5ers to on$er +ow Bei%ing willseek to manage t+is transition an$ even more +ow it will use its leverage a8terwar$s. Notwit+stan$ing t+at D+ina

still sees itsel8 artl5 as a $eveloing &ountr5, it is )e&oming more &on=$ent in its rising ower an$ status. As itse&onomi& interests a)roa$ are e;an$ing rai$l5, so will t+e ressure in&rease tosa8eguar$ t+em more roa&tivel5. National se&urit5 is no longer solel5 a matter o8$e8en$ing sovereignt5 an$ $omesti& $eveloment. >t also )e&omes ne&essar5 8or D+ina to )a&k

u its growing interests overseas wit+ a more ro)ust $iloma&5 an$ se&urit5 oli&5. :o )e sure, t+e is still t+e

most imortant single e&onom5 in t+e worl$. >t also remains t+e worl$7s largest militar5 ower. 3+ile t+e E+as $eveloe$ into an even larger e&onom5 an$ +as )e&ome t+e most imortantentit5 in terms o8 e;ternal tra$e @ows, oliti&all5 an$ militaril5 it er8orms 8ar )elowits otential an$ is no mat&+ eit+er 8or t+e or D+ina . :+e E7s 8oreign oli&5 is &on8ronte$

wit+ a &olle&tive a&tion ro)lem o8 sorts, an$ as a result is la&king in )ot strategi& vision an$ assertiveness.

Alt+oug+ still smaller t+an t+e ot+er two, D+ina +as grown into t+e worl$7s se&on$ largestnational e&onom5 an$ also t+e one t+at grows most ui&kl5 . A&&or$ing to some estimates,

D+ina will move on a ar wit+ t+e in 2020 an$ )e&ome t+e worl$7s )iggest e&onom5 in 20?0

see :a)le 1F. 'oreover D+ina is stea$il5 in&reasing its militar5 ower. >n Bei%ing7s view, e&onomi& rowess is notsu8=&ient 8or a state to )e&ome a =rst rank ower. 63+at is imortant is &omre+ensive national ower, as s+own )5t+e a)ilit5 o8 t+e oviet nion to )alan&e t+e mu&+ wealt+ier in t+e Dol$ 3ar an$ t+e &ontinuing ina)ilit5 o8 ane&onomi&all5 ower8ul Jaan to la5 a oliti&al role7. / :+is view is ver5 mu&+ in line wit+ t+e neorealist &on&etiont+at to )e &onsi$ere$ a 6ole7 a &ountr5 must amass su8=&ient ower in all o8 3altH7s &ategories o8 ower- 6siHe o8oulation an$ territor5, resour&e en$owment, e&onomi& &aa)ilit5, militar5 strengt+, oliti&al sta)ilit5 an$&ometen&e.7 L

http://www.vub.ac.be/biccs/site/assets/files/apapers/China,%20the%20EU%20and%20Multipolarity-2.pdf








/NC 3nvironmental Peadershi# %igh No+US global environmental leadershi# high no+

%ay+ard 8$ teven C. (a5war$, t+e C.K. 3e5er+aeuser Cellow at AE>, 200 :+e

nite$ tates an$ t+e Environment- aggar$ or ea$er,* AE>, Ce)ruar5 21st,

Availa)le online at +tt-www.aei.orgarti&leenerg5an$t+eenvironmentt+eunite$statesan$t+eenvironmentlaggar$orlea$er, A&&esse$ L114F

:o )orrow t+e )lunt language o8 eneration _ an$ t+e 'illennials, $oes t+e nite$ tates su&k w+enit &omes to t+e environment Dontrar5 to t+e er&etion e;resse$ in t+e eigra+sa)ove, t+e answer turns out to )e a resoun$ing NoW t+e nite$ tates remains t+eworl$^s environmental lea$er an$ is likel5 to &ontinue as su&+ . But to ara+rase t+e ol$

slogan o8 t+e roagan$ist, i8 a miser&etion is reeate$ long enoug+, it will )e&ome anuns+akea)le )elie8.Environmental imrovement in t+e nite$ tates +as )een su)stantial an$ $ramati&almost a&ross t+e )oar$, as m5 annual >n$e; o8 ea$ing Environmental >n$i&ators an$ ot+er )ooks an$

reorts like it +ave s+own 8or more t+an a $e&a$e.[? :+e &+ie8 $rivers o8 t+is imrovement are

e&onomi& growt+, &onstantl5 in&reasing resour&e eO&ien&5, innovation in ollution&ontrol te&+nolog5, an$ t+e $eeening o8 environmental values among t+eAmeri&an u)li& t+at +ave translate$ into &+ange$ )e+avior an$ &onsumerre8eren&es. overnment regulation +as la5e$ a vital role to )e sure , )ut in t+e gran$

s&+eme o8 t+ings, regulation &an )e un$erstoo$ as a lagging in$i&ator t+at o8ten a&+ieves results at nee$lessl5 +ig+

&ost. 3ere it not 8or rising acuen&e an$ te&+nologi&al innovation, regulation woul$+ave mu&+ t+e same eMe&t as King Danute &omman$ing t+e ti$es.But in a variation o8 t+e ol$ &omlaint w+at +ave 5ou $one 8or me latel5 t+ere is wi$esrea$er&etion t+at t+e nite$ tates lags )e+in$ Euroe an$ ot+er lea$ing nations onenvironmental er8orman&e. :+is er&etion is more strongl5 +el$ a)roa$ t+an +erein t+e nite$ tates.

http://www.aei.org/article/energy-and-the-environment/the-united-states-and-the-environment-laggard-or-leader/






/NC %eg @adUS %egemony causes +ar in the South China Sea$ )urns case

:laser 1> Jo+n, E$itor at Antiwar.&om. (e +as )een u)lis+e$ at :+e 3as+ington

:imes, A)an$on (egemon5 in Asia#a&i=&, !r Risk Datastro+i& 3ar,* Antiwar.&om,

Januar5 L 2014, +tt-antiwar.&om)log2014011La)an$on+egemon5inasiaa&i=&orrisk&atastro+i&warF

enn5 Ro5, a enior Cellow at t+e East3est Denter, writes at $he iplomat t+at t+e&ru; o8 t+e tensions )etween t+e .. an$ D+ina is a &ontest 8or ower in t+e Asia#a&i=& region. :+e sua))ling over &ometing sovereignt5 &laims o8 t+is or t+atislan$ &+ain in t+e East an$ out+ D+ina eas, +e writes, is eri+eral to t+e real)attle 8or regional +egemon5. A D+inese s+ere o8 in@uen&e +ere woul$ reuire t+eevi&tion o8 Ameri&an strategi& lea$ers+i, in&lu$ing .. militar5 )ases an$ allian&esin Jaan an$ out+ Korea, .. regional oli&eman* $uties, an$ most o8 t+e se&urit5&ooeration )etween Ameri&a an$ 8rien$s in t+e region t+at now o&&urs. 3as+ingtonis not rea$5 to give u t+is role, seeing a strong resen&e in t+e western #a&i=& rim

an$ t+e a)ilit5 to s+ae regional aMairs as &ru&ial to Ameri&an se&urit5. A )asi&ro)lem, t+en, is t+at Bei%ing wants a s+ere o8 in@uen&e, w+ile 3as+ington is notwilling to a&&e$e it. >7m remin$e$ o8 t+e stark &+oi&e ut 8ort+ in Noam D+omsk57s200? )ook (egemon5 or urvival. Rel5ing on oO&ial $o&uments, D+omsk5 warne$t+at it is $angerous t+at t+e $e&lare$ intention o8 t+e most ower8ul state in+istor5 [is to maintain its +egemon5 t+roug+ t+e t+reat or use o8 militar5 8or&e, t+e$imension o8 ower in w+i&+ it reigns sureme.* >n t+e oO&ial r+etori& o8 t+eNational e&urit5 trateg5, !ur 8or&es will )e strong enoug+ to $issua$e otentiala$versaries 8rom ursuing a militar5 )uil$u in +oes o8 surassing, or eualing,t+e ower o8 t+e nite$ tates. !ne wellknown international aMairs se&ialist, Jo+n>ken)err5, $es&ri)es t+e $e&laration as a gran$ strateg5 [t+at )egins wit+ a

8un$amental &ommitment to maintaining a uniolar worl$ in w+i&+ t+e nite$tates +as no eer &ometitor,* a &on$ition t+at is to )e ermanent [so t+at nostate or &oalition &oul$ ever &+allenge [t+e .. as glo)al lea$er, rote&tor, an$en8or&er.* >ken)err5 went on to sa5 t+is uest 8or ermanent +egemon5 t+reatensto leave t+e worl$ more $angerous an$ $ivi$e$ G an$ t+e nite$ tates lessse&ure.* Ameri&a7s &urrent $e8ense osture in Asia G to )a&k all o8 D+ina7sneig+)oring rivals in an attemt to &ur) D+ina7s regional am)itions G is at on&e anattemt to imlement t+is +egemoni& gran$ strateg5 an$ a t+reat to ea&e. '5)iggest 8ear is t+at a small mis+a is going to )low u into somet+ing mu&+ )igger,*sa5s EliHa)et+ D. E&onom5 o8 t+e Doun&il on Coreign Relations. >8 t+ere is a use o88or&e )etween Jaan an$ D+ina,* warns +er &olleague +eila A. mit+, t+is &oul$ )e

allout &on@i&t )etween t+ese two Asian giants. An$ as a treat5 all5 o8 Jaan, it willautomati&all5 involve t+e nite$ tates.* As >7ve written, maintaining glo)al+egemon5 $oes or$inar5 Ameri&ans little goo$. u&+ an e;&lusive +ol$ on ower int+e s+ere o8 international relations is greatl5 )ene=&ial to oliti&al elites an$ t+ewealt+5 entities to w+i&+ t+e5 are &losel5 tie$, )ut not mu&+ 8or t+e generaloulation. iven t+is, t+e uestion o8 w+et+er we re8er maintaining +egemon5 toallout &on@i&t* in t+e Asia#a&i=& is ertinent. 3e &an eit+er &ontinue to risk&atastro+i& &on@i&t )etween two o8 t+e worl$7s most ower8ul states, or, as Ro5



uts it, a&&e$e* to D+ina7s regional am)itions w+i&+, a8ter all, mirror Ameri&a7s ownregional am)itions w+en it was a rising ower.



)errorism Core



1NC Frontline – Pong

1. )he containers are the focus of the attac!s$$ a5 canYt solve

further ins#ection

/.ort 3conomy is im#ossibly resilient$$$ multi#le +arrantsE$war$ E. eamer an$ D+risto+er :+orn)erg, #rote&ting t+e Nation7s eaorts-Balan&ing e&urit5 an$ DostE$war$ E. eamer is t+e D+aun&e5 J. 'e$)err5 #ro8essor o8 'anagement, ro8essor o8 e&onomi&s,

an$ ro8essor o8 statisti&s at DA, an$ $ire&tor o8 t+e DA An$erson Core&ast. A8ter serving as assistant an$ asso&iate ro8essor at (arvar$, +e %oine$DA in 19L< an$ serve$ as &+air o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment 8rom 19? to 19L. >n 1990, +e move$ to t+e An$erson ra$uate &+ool o8 'anagement.(e re&eive$ a B.A. in mat+emati&s 8rom #rin&eton niversit5 an$ an '.A. in mat+emati&s an$ a #+.. in e&onomi&s 8rom t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e +asu)lis+e$ 8our )ooks an$ more t+an 100 arti&les. (is resear&+ aers in e&onometri&s +ave )een &olle&te$ in tur$5 E&onometri&s, u)lis+e$ in t+eE$war$ Elgar eries o8 E&onomists o8 t+e 20t+ Dentur5. (is resear&+ in international e&onomi&s an$ e&onometri& met+o$olog5 +as )een $is&usse$ in New(oriHons in E&onomi& :+oug+t- Araisals o8 ea$ing E&onomists. (e is a 8ellow o8 t+e Ameri&an A&a$em5 o8 Arts an$ &ien&es an$ a 8ellow o8 t+eE&onometri& o&iet5. (e is also a resear&+ asso&iate o8 t+e National Bureau o8 E&onomi& Resear&+ an$ &urrentl5 is on t+e a$visor5 )oar$ o8 t+e Bureau o8E&onomi& Anal5sis o8 t+e .. Dommer&e eartmentD+risto+er :+orn)erg is a senior e&onomist wit+ t+e DA An$erson Core&ast an$ aut+ors t+eAn$erson Core&ast 8or Dali8ornia as well as 8or t+e os Angeles an$ East Ba5 regions. (e se&ialiHes in international an$ la)or e&onomi&s. (e +as )eeninvolve$ in a num)er o8 se&ial stu$ies measuring t+e eMe&t o8 imortant events on t+e e&onom5, in&lu$ing t+e Nort+ Ameri&an Cree :ra$e Agreement,t+e Dali8ornia ower &risis, an$ t+e etem)er 11 terrorist atta&ks. (e re&eive$ +is B.. in )usiness a$ministration 8rom t+e tate niversit52L0 o8 New Sork at BuMalo an$ +is #+.. in )usiness e&onomi&s 8rom t+e An$erson &+ool. (e was reviousl5 on t+e 8a&ult5 o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment at Dlemson

niversit5. DA An$erson Core&ast, #orts, :ra$e, an$ :errorism- Balan&ing t+e Datastro+i& an$ t+e

D+roni&, g ?1, +tt-www.i&.org&ontentu)sreortRV/0/J(R.$8AK#F

Alt+oug+ t+e nite$ tates is &onsi$era)l5 more tra$e$een$ent to$a5 t+an inearlier erio$s, t+is otential vulnera)ilit5 is oMset )5 a num)er o8 8a&tors. "ne is

the shift from shi# to aircraft for delivery of many high$value, time$

sensitive goods, #articularly on the e4#ort side. e&on$, &ountermeasures toa terrorist strike, su&+ as in&rease$ inse&tions o8 &ontainers, ma5 )e more onerous8or imorts &oming 8rom un&ertain orts t+an 8or e;orts a&kage$ in t+e nite$tates. An$ alt+oug+ a wi$esrea$ la)or a&tion woul$ sto most maritime tra$e&omletel5, a terrorist strike woul$ onl5 slow tra$e rat+er t+an sto it. Dhen

added together, these factors mean that the disru#tion to the Io+ ofgoods as a result of a current terrorist attac! could be roughly similar in

siHe to the e5ect of a maor #ort stri!e in the 1'&0s.?4 :+ere8ore, we 8eelt+at t+ese +istori& la)or a&tions &orreson$ &losel5 enoug+ to t+e kin$ o8 ort$isrution t+at a terrorist atta&k mig+t )ring to tell us a lot a)out t+e ro)a)le eMe&ton t+e national e&onom5 o8 a terrorist atta&k on t+e orts. 3e will s+ow +ow t+esela)or a&tions are visi)le in t+e imort $ata an$ e;ort $ata o8 t+e erio$. >n all&ases, t+ere was a small in&rease in imort volume )e8ore t+ese a&tions, a $ro involume $uring t+e a&tion, an$ a large surge in imort volume a8ter t+e $isute wassettle$. @ecause of the siHe of that #ostdisru#tion volume surge, theoverall loss of trade during a labor action +as very small and in some

cases none4istent. )rade +as #ost#oned but not lost. Nor are t+e a$verseeMe&ts o8 la)or a&tions evi$ent in ot+er $ata t+at we +ave e;amine$, in&lu$ing $atareorting ro$u&tion an$ emlo5ment. "ur results sho+ quite conclusively

that the e5ect of these #ast stri!es on the greater economy +as

negligible. :+is is testimon5 artl5 to t+e great resilien&e o8 a mo$ern e&onom5.Short interru#tions to su##ly chains can be mitigated fully by dra+ingdo+n inventories, es#ecially if they +ere built u# in antici#ation of the

event. 3+en inventories are $elete$ an$ $eliver5 essential, &argo &an )e s+i8te$



to air or lan$ t+roug+ a neig+)oring e&onom5. Some+hat longer interru#tionscan be com#ensated for through a tem#orary shift to domestic su##liers

an es#ecially easy alternative if su##ly chains have built$in redundancies

that allo+ the needed Ie4ibility. ome &onsumers at t+e en$ o8 t+e sul5&+ain ma5 +ave to wait a w+ile or a5 +ig+er ri&es. :+e saleXan$ ro=tsXma5 )e

ostone$, )ut t+e5 are not revente$. !ur results $o not sa5 t+at no )usiness was +urt )5 ort la)or a&tions or t+at ro=ts were nota$versel5 aMe&te$ )5 t+e in&rease in transa&tion &osts. ome in$ustries, some=rms, an$ some regions were surel5 a$versel5 aMe&te$. Nor $o we &laim t+at aterrorist atta&k on t+e orts an$ t+e resultant $isrution to t+e sul5 &+ain woul$not +arm an5 region or &oman5X&ertainl5 some =rms an$ regions woul$ )eaMe&te$. (owever, as is o8ten t+e &ase in a mo$ern &omle; e&onom5, w+en onein$ustr5 or area suMers as a result o8 some e&onomi& $istur)an&e, anot+er rosersas a result o8 an oMsetting s+i8t in $eman$- )here are +inners and losers. !urmain oint +ere is t+at t+ese ast $isrutions were insuO&ient to &ause an5noti&ea)le &+ange in t+e aggregate @ow o8 t+e e&onom5- Eit+er t+e losses were

small &omare$ wit+ t+e overall e&onom5 or t+e5 were largel5 oMset )5 gainselsew+ere. 3e )elieve t+at t+e same woul$ )e likel5 a8ter a terrorist atta&k on aort- >ts eMe&ts are not likel5 to s+ow u ot+er t+an in imorts an$ e;orts.

<.3con is resilient$$$ an attac! +ould only cause short term

shoc!s

E$war$ E. eamer an$ D+risto+er :+orn)erg, #rote&ting t+e Nation7s eaorts-Balan&ing e&urit5 an$ DostE$war$ E. eamer is t+e D+aun&e5 J. 'e$)err5 #ro8essor o8 'anagement, ro8essor o8 e&onomi&s,


niversit5. DA An$erson Core&ast, #orts, :ra$e, an$ :errorism- Balan&ing t+e Datastro+i& an$ t+eD+roni&, g ?1, +tt-www.i&.org&ontentu)sreortRV/0/J(R.$8AK#F

>t is easy, ho+ever, to overestimate these secondary e5ects. 3e +ave to )e&are8ul a)out $istinguis+ing )etween events t+at &ause )usiness to )e $ela5e$ an$t+ose t+at &ause )usiness to )e &an&elle$. Qer5 s+ortrun $isrutions to tra$eXw+et+er )5 severe weat+er, traO& ro)lems at t+e ort, or a small terrorist atta&kX+ave almost no net eMe&t on t+e e&onom5, sin&e t+e $isrutions &ause$ are littlemore t+an w+at +aens $uring t+e normal, ran$om, $a5to$a5 li8e o8 &ommer&e.Small delays have no measurable e5ect, and *rms very often have e4cess



ca#acity in order to deal +ith une4#ected Iuctuations in demand. An$alt+oug+ &onsumers mig+t sto @5ing as a result o8 an in&i$ent, t+e5 ma5 instea$)egin to )u5 more &ars wit+ t+e mone5 t+e5 $i$ not sen$ on air travel. Posses in

one #lace may be o5set by gains else+here. !nl5 sustaine$ s+o&ks to t+ee&onom5 will +ave an5 ermanent eMe&t on t+e e&onom5, an$ +ere we must )e

&are8ul to re&ogniHe t+at t+e e&onom5 is &omose$ o8 &ons&ious agents w+o willa$%ust lans an$ use resour&es in $iMerent?L wa5s to mitigate $amages. 3e mustnot un$erestimate t+e resilien&e o8 a 8reeenterrise e&onom5

>.'911 #roves that shoc!s to trade dont cause a recession$$

multi#le +arrants


an$ ro8essor o8 statisti&s at DA, an$ $ire&tor o8 t+e DA An$erson Core&ast. A8ter serving as assistant an$ asso&iate ro8essor at (arvar$, +e %oine$DA in 19L< an$ serve$ as &+air o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment 8rom 19? to 19L. >n 1990, +e move$ to t+e An$erson ra$uate &+ool o8 'anagement.(e re&eive$ a B.A. in mat+emati&s 8rom #rin&eton niversit5 an$ an '.A. in mat+emati&s an$ a #+.. in e&onomi&s 8rom t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e +asu)lis+e$ 8our )ooks an$ more t+an 100 arti&les. (is resear&+ aers in e&onometri&s +ave )een &olle&te$ in tur$5 E&onometri&s, u)lis+e$ in t+e

E$war$ Elgar eries o8 E&onomists o8 t+e 20t+ Dentur5. (is resear&+ in international e&onomi&s an$ e&onometri& met+o$olog5 +as )een $is&usse$ in New(oriHons in E&onomi& :+oug+t- Araisals o8 ea$ing E&onomists. (e is a 8ellow o8 t+e Ameri&an A&a$em5 o8 Arts an$ &ien&es an$ a 8ellow o8 t+eE&onometri& o&iet5. (e is also a resear&+ asso&iate o8 t+e National Bureau o8 E&onomi& Resear&+ an$ &urrentl5 is on t+e a$visor5 )oar$ o8 t+e Bureau o8E&onomi& Anal5sis o8 t+e .. Dommer&e eartmentD+risto+er :+orn)erg is a senior e&onomist wit+ t+e DA An$erson Core&ast an$ aut+ors t+eAn$erson Core&ast 8or Dali8ornia as well as 8or t+e os Angeles an$ East Ba5 regions. (e se&ialiHes in international an$ la)or e&onomi&s. (e +as )eeninvolve$ in a num)er o8 se&ial stu$ies measuring t+e eMe&t o8 imortant events on t+e e&onom5, in&lu$ing t+e Nort+ Ameri&an Cree :ra$e Agreement,t+e Dali8ornia ower &risis, an$ t+e etem)er 11 terrorist atta&ks. (e re&eive$ +is B.. in )usiness a$ministration 8rom t+e tate niversit52L0 o8 New Sork at BuMalo an$ +is #+.. in )usiness e&onomi&s 8rom t+e An$erson &+ool. (e was reviousl5 on t+e 8a&ult5 o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment at Dlemson


etem)er 11 i$ Not Dause t+e 2001 Re&ession :+ere is a strong ten$en&5 to)lame too man5 se&on$ar5 eMe&ts on $isasters. A goo$ e;amle o8 t+is

+enomenon is 8oun$ in t+e etem)er 11 atta&ks on New Sork an$ 3as+ington,.D. >n t+e $a5s a8ter t+e atta&ks, t+e r+etori& regar$ing t+e otential eMe&t on t+enational e&onom5 was )ot+ loud and +rong. :+e t+eor5 roose$ )5 man5anal5sts an$ %ournalists was t+at s5&+ologi&all5 8ragile &onsumers in t+e nite$tates woul$ suMer a &risis an$ sto sen$ing, $riving t+e e&onom5 into a $eeerre&ession. uort 8or t+is t+eor5 &ame 8rom t+e =rst ul8 3ar, w+i&+ suose$l5&ause$ a similar &onsumer &risis o8 &on=$en&e t+at in turn $rove us into a re&essionin 1990. Cor e;amle, t+e 3all treet Journal reorte$ on etem)er 1?, 2001- #asts+o&ks to Ameri&a7s sense o8 se&urit5, su&+ as t+e !kla+oma Dit5 )om)ing or t+eul8 3ar, +ave romte$ &onsumers to ull )a&k temoraril5 on ma%or ur&+asesan$ ot+er $is&retionar5 sen$ing,* sai$ Ri&+ar$ Durtin, $ire&tor o8 surve5s o8

&onsumers at t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e e;e&ts a similar rea&tion now, w+i&+&oul$ mean a roug+ time in t+e ne;t several weeks 8or t+e e&onom5, w+i&+ wasalrea$5 struggling wit+ rising %o)less rates an$ +ig+ &onsumer $e)t )ur$ens. 3ewere teetering on t+e e$ge, an$ t+is mig+t well us+ us over,* sai$ 'r. Durtin. )his

hy#othesis ignores the facts and com#letely overstates the #sychologicalfragility of merican consumers. )he 1''0 recession +as not caused by

the *rst :ulf Dar at all. Resi$ential investment an$ e;en$itures on &onsumer$ura)les t5i&all5 are lea$ing in$i&ators o8 t+e e&onom5. 3+en sen$ing on t+ese



items )egins to 8all as a er&entage o8 gross $omesti& ro$u&t #F, t+is is astrong in$i&ation o8 an un$erl5ing weakness in t+e e&onom5 t+at will &reate are&ession. E;en$itures in t+ese two se&tors +a$ $roe$ 8rom 14 er&ent o8 # to)elow 12 er&ent o8 # in t+e t+ree 5ears re&e$ing t+e 1990 $ownturnXandbefore the :ulf +ar. :+ere +as never )een su&+ a $ro t+at $i$ not eventuall5

lea$ to a re&ession, wit+ one e;&etionXin 19/L, w+en t+e e&onom5 was wo))ling,aearing to )e on t+e verge o8? re&ession, t+e s+ar in&rease in sen$ing 8or t+eQietnam 3ar roelle$ t+e e&onom5 8orwar$. )his +as ust the reverse of +hat7r. Curtin suggested. imilarl5, t+e .. e&onom5 $i$ not slow $own a8ter t+eetem)er 11 atta&ksW in$ee$, t+e e&onom5 was in t+e mi$st o8 a&&elerating itswa5 out o8 t+e 2001 )usinessle$ $ownturn t+at +a$ )egun in t+e mi$$le o8 2000.An$ alt+oug+ &onsumer &on=$en&e 8ell s+arl5 a8ter t+e atta&ks, &onsumersen$ing in t+e 8ourt+ uarter grew at an unre&e$ente$ L er&ent seasonall5a$%uste$ annual rate AARF, one o8 t+e s+arest in&reases seen in t+e ast $e&a$eCigure 2.2F. nemlo5ment $i$ rise s+arl5 a8ter t+e event, )ut t+is seeme$ to )erimaril5 an a&&eleration o8 t+e emlo5ment loss t+at woul$ +ave )een e;e&te$given t+e weak e&onomi& &limate. :+is was ese&iall5 true )e&ause labor mar!ets

+ere still overheated from the tech$fueled economic boom of the latenineties. Retail sales $i$ $ro s+arl5 in etem)er 2001 )ut also re)oun$e$s+arl5 in !&to)er an$ returne$ to tren$ in Novem)erX)usiness Cigure 2.2Xrowt+in Real # an$ Donsumer en$ing, 2000G2002?9 $ela5e$, not )usiness&an&elle$. >n$ee$, it is +ar$ to =n$ an5 evi$en&e o8 an eMe&t o8 t+e etem)er 11atta&ks on t+e aggregate e&onom5, wit+ t+e e;&etion o8 t+at on t+e air travelin$ustr5. Even in t+at &ase, t+e in$ustr5 was in $ee trou)le )e8ore+an$, wit+ ro=tmargins $iing into t+e re$ in t+e )eginning o8 2000Xlong )e8ore t+e atta&ks.3ven then, it must be remembered that total consumer s#ending +ent u#,

so the dollars that +ere not s#ent on air travel +ent to some other #art ofthe economy

2.ort econ is incredible resilient$$an attac! +ould not be able

to destroy the #orts ability to o#erateE$war$ E. eamer an$ D+risto+er :+orn)erg, #rote&ting t+e Nation7s eaorts-Balan&ing e&urit5 an$ DostE$war$ E. eamer is t+e D+aun&e5 J. 'e$)err5 #ro8essor o8 'anagement, ro8essor o8 e&onomi&s,

an$ ro8essor o8 statisti&s at DA, an$ $ire&tor o8 t+e DA An$erson Core&ast. A8ter serving as assistant an$ asso&iate ro8essor at (arvar$, +e %oine$DA in 19L< an$ serve$ as &+air o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment 8rom 19? to 19L. >n 1990, +e move$ to t+e An$erson ra$uate &+ool o8 'anagement.(e re&eive$ a B.A. in mat+emati&s 8rom #rin&eton niversit5 an$ an '.A. in mat+emati&s an$ a #+.. in e&onomi&s 8rom t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e +asu)lis+e$ 8our )ooks an$ more t+an 100 arti&les. (is resear&+ aers in e&onometri&s +ave )een &olle&te$ in tur$5 E&onometri&s, u)lis+e$ in t+eE$war$ Elgar eries o8 E&onomists o8 t+e 20t+ Dentur5. (is resear&+ in international e&onomi&s an$ e&onometri& met+o$olog5 +as )een $is&usse$ in New(oriHons in E&onomi& :+oug+t- Araisals o8 ea$ing E&onomists. (e is a 8ellow o8 t+e Ameri&an A&a$em5 o8 Arts an$ &ien&es an$ a 8ellow o8 t+eE&onometri& o&iet5. (e is also a resear&+ asso&iate o8 t+e National Bureau o8 E&onomi& Resear&+ an$ &urrentl5 is on t+e a$visor5 )oar$ o8 t+e Bureau o8E&onomi& Anal5sis o8 t+e .. Dommer&e eartmentD+risto+er :+orn)erg is a senior e&onomist wit+ t+e DA An$erson Core&ast an$ aut+ors t+e

An$erson Core&ast 8or Dali8ornia as well as 8or t+e os Angeles an$ East Ba5 regions. (e se&ialiHes in international an$ la)or e&onomi&s. (e +as )eeninvolve$ in a num)er o8 se&ial stu$ies measuring t+e eMe&t o8 imortant events on t+e e&onom5, in&lu$ing t+e Nort+ Ameri&an Cree :ra$e Agreement,t+e Dali8ornia ower &risis, an$ t+e etem)er 11 terrorist atta&ks. (e re&eive$ +is B.. in )usiness a$ministration 8rom t+e tate niversit52L0 o8 New Sork at BuMalo an$ +is #+.. in )usiness e&onomi&s 8rom t+e An$erson &+ool. (e was reviousl5 on t+e 8a&ult5 o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment at Dlemson




A &ursor5 look woul$ seem to orten$ a $ramati&, $angerous s&enario, )ut a &loserlook at t+e 8a&ts suggests ot+erwise. Crom an inutoutut erse&tive, a wi$evariet5 o8 +oles woul$ )e ui&kl5 &reate$ in t+e @ow o8 ro$u&tion t+at woul$ seemto lea$ to a ver5 s+ar $ownturn in e&onomi& a&tivit5. @ut our economy is not amechanical systemZ it is an organic self$healing system, mu&+ like t+at o8 a

+uman )eing- arge in%uries take time to +eal, )ut 8or t+e most art t+e5 $oeventuall5 +eal. :o &ontinue t+e analog5, a ort atta&k is onl5 a &ut on t+e armXui&kl5 +eale$ wit+ little noti&ea)le eMe&t on t+e $a5to$a5 8un&tioning o8 t+eerson. Alt+oug+ t+e orts o8 os Angeles an$ ong Bea&+ &ertainl5 reresent arimar5 in8rastru&ture target in t+e nite$ tates, a &omlete s+ut$own o8 t+e ortsis +ig+l5 unlikel5 as a $ire&t result o8 some +5si&al atta&k. )here are t+oreasons for this= the sheer #hysical scale of the facilities and the large

amount of e4cess #hysical ca#acity as oose$ to +uman &aital &aa&it5F&urrentl5 in la&e. As s+own in t+e ort ma on . ;;iii, t+e two 8a&ilities take uaro;imatel5 12 suare miles o8 sa&e in a si;)58ourmile area. :+e &omle; is)roken into a num)er o8 searate 5ar$s, ea&+ &omletel5 &ontrolle$ )5 a num)er o8in$een$ent, &ometing ma%or s+iing lines, ea&+ o8 w+i&+ +ave su)stantialinvestment in t+e +5si&al &ranes an$ euiment on t+eir roert5. ome o8 t+ese5ar$s are on :erminal >slan$, &onne&te$ to t+e mainlan$ )5 t+ree roa$ )ri$ges an$ arailroa$W ot+ers are on t+e mainlan$ itsel8. :+ere are multile a&&ess oints into t+earea as t+e ma s+ows, in&lu$ing two +ig+wa5s. Even i8 t+ese roa$s were s+ut$own, it woul$ )e relativel5 simle to &onstru&t a temorar5 )ri$ge to t+e islan$,an$ alt+oug+ it mig+t +ave some imli&ations 8or t+e movement o8 s+is, no 5ar$woul$ )e eMe&tivel5 isolate$.? Donventional weaons woul$ )e a)le to $amage, at)est, onl5 a small ortion o8 t+e &omle;, an$ woul$ )e una)le to isolate asu)stantial ortion o8 t+e ort given t+e multile a&&ess routes into an$ out o8 t+earea. Even a so$called dirty bomb could cover only one or t+o squaremiles of area +ith radioactivity. iven t+e lo&ation on t+e water, win$s woul$ui&kl5 )low most o8 t+e ra$ioa&tive materials awa5, leaving even most o8 t+einitiall5 aMe&te$ area ui&kl5 reusa)le. :+e onl5 known weaon t+at &oul$ take outan area o8 t+is siHe 8or an e;ten$e$ erio$ o8 time woul$ )e a nu&lear weaon. >tseems more likel5 t+at t+e :emorar5 )ri$ges are use$ in man5 &ir&umstan&essurroun$ing $isasters, &onstru&tion, an$ militar5 a&tion. Cor e;amle, t+e Baile5Bri$ge Doman5 www. )aile5)ri$ge.&omF ro$u&es )ri$ges t+at &an )e set u in$a5s 8or use in &onstru&tion Hones. :+is &oman5 )egan )5 rovi$ing ontoon)ri$ges in 3orl$ 3ar >> t+at &oul$ &arr5 tanks t+at &ommonl5 weig+ ?0 to ?< tons.

:+e .. Arm5 +as a se&ial grou, t+e 299t+ Engineer Doman5 'ultiRole Bri$geDoman5F, w+i&+ se&ialiHes in )uil$ing ontoon )ri$ges. :+e 299t+ )uilt one overt+e Eu+rates River in 200? $uring t+e >ra &on@i&t. :+is @oat )ri$ge was 1<meters long.4< target o8 su&+ a +orri=& $evi&e woul$ )e a $ensel5 oulate$ area,not a ort. iven t+at it is unlikel5 8or t+e entire ort &omle; to )e &lose$ 8or ane;ten$e$ erio$ as a result o8 an atta&k, t+e ne;t uestion is w+at woul$ +aen i8an atta&k instea$ $estro5e$ onl5 a ortion o8 t+e ort 8a&ilities. n$er t+is s&enario,t+e eMe&t on tra$e an$ an5 se&on$ar5 eMe&ts woul$ $een$ on t+e a)ilit5 o8 t+e8un&tioning ortions o8 t+e ort to i&k u t+e sla&k. Alt+oug+ t+e stories o8&ongestion at t+e ort an$ ongoing lans 8or e;ansion seem to iml5 t+at t+e ortsare running &lose to or at &aa&it5, they are not actually near ca#acityat



least not from a #hysical #ers#ective. 'ost o8 t+e 5ear, t+e various 8a&ilitiesrun onl5 one s+i8t er $a5. uring erio$s o8 in&rease$ tra$e a&tivit5, t+e5 ma5 runtwo or, in t+e most $eserate o8 &ir&umstan&es, t+ree. 'ultile s+i8ts, +owever, arever5 unusual )e&ause o8 t+e in&rease$ la)or &osts an$ work restri&tions o8 la)oragreements. @ut if the man#o+er +ere available, each yard in the facility

could li!ely move at least t+ice as much merchandise through if it ran />hours a day. >n$ee$, t+is oint +as )een ma$e &learer t+an ever in re&ent mont+sas lo&al oO&ials +ave move$ $e&isivel5 to re$u&e mi$$a5 &ongestion aroun$ t+eorts )5 &+arging a 8ee to &omanies t+at want to move goo$s an$ ro$u&ts intoan$ out o8 t+e orts $uring normal )usiness +ours. >t is un$erstoo$ t+at t+e ortin8rastru&ture is largel5 un$eruse$ $uring most o8 t+e $a5, an$ t+at e&onomi&in&entives are nee$e$ to use it more eO&ientl5. >8 a ortion o8 t+e &omle; were&lose$ as a result o8 $amage to its transortation in8rastru&ture, it woul$ )erelativel5 simle to trans8er t+e s+iing into ot+er 8a&ilities. 3e assume t+at in t+eevent o8 a national emergen&5, &ometing s+iing &omanies woul$ s+are8a&ilities.

&. terror attac! +ould not a5ect the entirety of the #ort

economy$$ other sectors #ic! u# the #aceE$war$ E. eamer an$ D+risto+er :+orn)erg, #rote&ting t+e Nation7s eaorts-Balan&ing e&urit5 an$ DostE$war$ E. eamer is t+e D+aun&e5 J. 'e$)err5 #ro8essor o8 'anagement, ro8essor o8 e&onomi&s,



Curt+ermore, t+e la)or stoages o8 earlier eras +a$ a $ual eMe&t on t+e e&onom5)e&ause t+e5 stoe$ )ot+ e;orts an$ imorts. For the terrorist scenario +e

lay out, +e feel that such an attac! +ould a5ect im#orts far more than

e4#orts, reducing the overall siHe of the shoc! to the economy. :+e s+i8t int+e &omosition o8 tra$e woul$ also attenuate t+e eMe&t on t+e e&onom5. Non

etroleum in$ustrial sulies ma$e u ?/ er&ent o8 all goo$s imorts in 19/L,w+ereas &onsumer an$ ot+er ro$u&ts ma$e u onl5 22 er&ent. B5 &omarison,in$ustrial sulies make u onl5 1< er&ent o8 imorts now, w+ereas &onsumer an$ot+er goo$s make u ?1 er&ent. >8 a &riti&al &omonent o8 a manu8a&turing line8ails to arrive, t+at mig+t &ause wi$esrea$ $isrution, but the lac! of yetanother lam# made in China on Dal$7art shelves +ould not. >n$ee$, su&+$istur)an&e to t+e atterns o8 tra$e @ows &oul$ &reate a$$itional &onsumtion$eman$ 8or ro$u&ts ma$e +ereXtemoraril5 imroving t+e %o) markets in



manu8a&turing. A$$itionall5, $omesti& ro$u&tion o8 goo$s is now a smallerroortion o8 #, iml5ing t+at a $istur)an&e to sul5 &+ains into t+e goo$sse&tors woul$ +ave a smaller overall eMe&t on t+e e&onom5. >n t+e si;ties, t+ero$u&tion o8 goo$s ma$e u nearl5 +al8 o8 t+e e&onom5. :o$a5, it is 8ar less t+an at+ir$, as servi&es +ave )een t+e rimar5 growt+ ortion o8 t+e e&onom5. Cinall5,

&ommuni&ation an$ in8ormations+aring is 8ar easier t+an it was ?0 5ears ago,making it easier 8or =rms to =n$ alternative suliers or alternative routes 8orro$u&ts in t+e event o8 some $istur)an&e to t+eir sul5 &+ain. )he result is that*rms are more nimble and more ca#able of eRciently handling #roblems

+ith their su##ly chains, not less. !t+er eO&ien&ies in&lu$e s+orter ro$u&tionruns an$ an in&rease in =rms in t+e sulier )usiness t+at now tout t+eir a)ilit5 torovi$e se&ial nee$s in s+ort or$er. As 8or our %ustintime e&onom5, alt+oug+ it istrue t+at t+e inventor5tosales ratio +as 8allen 8rom 1./9 to 1.?/ 8or manu8a&turingin$ustries in t+e ast 40 5ears, it +as a&tuall5 in&rease$ 8or t+e w+olesale an$ retailtra$e se&tors :a)le 2.?F. ll these factors indicate that although #ast #ort

shutdo+ns may not be the #erfect e4am#le of the e5ect of a terrorist

attac! on our #orts today, they should be very informative. 3e mig+t&onsi$er t+is a low estimate 8or t+e otential 8or $istur)an&e to t+e aggregatee&onom5, )ut it is &ertainl5 a soli$ estimate

K.No im#act to economic decline – #refer ne+ data

aniel AreHner 1>, >R ro8 at :u8ts, :+e 5stem 3orke$- lo)al E&onomi&

overnan&e $uring t+e reat Re&ession, 3orl$ #oliti&s, Qolume //. Num)er 1, Januar5 2014, . 12?1/4

:+e =nal signi=&ant out&ome a$$resses a $og t+at +asn^t )arke$- t+e eMe&t o8 t+ereat Re&ession on &ross)or$er &on@i&t an$ violen&e. uring t+e initial stages o8t+e &risis, multile anal5sts asserte$ t+at t+e =nan&ial &risis woul$ lea$ states toin&rease t+eir use o8 8or&e as a tool 8or sta5ing in ower.42 :+e5 voi&e$ genuine&on&ern t+at t+e glo)al e&onomi& $ownturn woul$ lea$ to an in&rease in &on@i&tXw+et+er t+roug+ greater internal reression, $iversionar5 wars, arms ra&es, or arat&+eting u o8 great ower &on@i&t. Qiolen&e in t+e 'i$$le East, )or$er $isutes int+e out+ D+ina ea, an$ even t+e $isrutions o8 t+e !&&u5 movement 8uele$imressions o8 a surge in glo)al u)li& $isor$er. )he aggregate data suggestother+ise, +owever. :+e >nstitute 8or E&onomi&s an$ #ea&e +as &on&lu$e$ t+att+e average level o8 ea&e8ulness in 2012 is aro;imatel5 t+e same as it was in

200L.4? >nterstate violen&e in arti&ular +as $e&line$ sin&e t+e start o8 t+e=nan&ial &risis, as +ave militar5 e;en$itures in most samle$ &ountries. !t+erstu$ies &on=rm t+at t+e reat Re&ession +as not triggere$ an5 in&rease in violent&on@i&t, as otta :+emner an$ #eter 3allensteen &on&lu$e- [:+e attern is one o8relative sta)ilit5 w+en we &onsi$er t+e tren$ 8or t+e ast =ve 5ears.44 :+e se&ular$e&line in violen&e t+at starte$ wit+ t+e en$ o8 t+e Dol$ 3ar +as not )een reverse$.Rogers Bru)aker o)serves t+at t+e &risis +as not to $ate generate$ t+e surge inrote&tionist nationalism or et+ni& e;&lusion t+at mig+t +ave )een e;e&te$.4?



8.No terrorismno lin!ages, e4#erts, your evidence is

alarmism, data,

Jo+n 7ueller oliti&al s&ientist at !+io tate an$ &oaut+or o8 :error, e&urit5, an$

'one5- Balan&ing t+e Risks, Bene=ts, an$ Dosts o8 (omelan$ e&urit5 (as t+et+reat 8rom terrorism )een e;aggerate$* :+e Dommentator 19814+tt-www.t+e&ommentator.&omarti&le4<L9+asVt+eVt+reatV8romVterrorismV)eenVe;aggerate$

:wo 5ears a8ter t+e rai$ on !sama )in a$en7s +i$eawa5, terrorism alarmists remain in eak 8orm

e;laining t+at alt+oug+ alYae$a +as )een weakene$ it still manages to resent a gravet+reat.

Qarious well+one$ te&+niues are alie$ to suort t+is &ontention. !ne is to es5 an$ assess various

linkages* or &onne&tions* o8 ties* or t+rea$s* )etween an$ among a range o8 $isarate terrorists or

terrorist grous, most o8 w+i&+ aear rat+er gossamer an$ o8 onl5 limite$ &onseuen&eon &loser e;amination.

Anot+er is to e4aggerate the im#ortance and e5ectiveness o8 t+e aOliate$grous* linke$ to alYae$a &entral. >n arti&ular, alarmists oint to t+e alYae$a aOliate in &+aoti& Semen,

ominousl5 +ailing it as t+e $ea$liest* an$ t+e most aggressive* o8 t+ese an$ a ma%or t+reat.*

Set its &+ie8 eMorts at international terrorism +ave failed abysmally- an un$erwear)om) an$ laser rinter )om)s on &argo lanes. 3it+ t+at tra&k re&or$, t+e grou ma5 ose a

ro)lem or &on&ern, )ut it scarcely #resents a maor threat outsi$e o8 war Hones.

'ore generall5, al$[aeda is its o+n +orst enemy,* as Ro)ert renier, a 8ormer to D>A

&ounterterrorism oO&ial, notes. 3+ere t+e5 +ave su&&ee$e$ initiall5, t+e5 ver5 ui&kl5$is&re$it t+emselves.*

An5 terrorist t+reat wit+in t+e $eveloe$ worl$ seems even less imressive. :+e Boston

terrorists o8 201? were t+e =rst in t+e nite$ tates sin&e 911 in w+i&+ >slamist terrorists a&tuall5 were a)leto assem)le an$ $etonate )om)s al)eit very #rimitive ones. But e;&et 8or t+at, t+e5$o not seem to +ave )een more &ometent t+an most o8 t+eir re$e&essors.

AmaHingl5, t+e5 aarentl5 t+oug+t t+e5 &oul$ some+ow get awa5 wit+ t+eir $ee$ even

t+oug+ t+e5 &+ose to set t+eir )om)s oM at t+e most+otogra+e$ sot on t+e lanet at t+e time. 'oreover, t+e5+a$ no &o+erent lan o8 es&ae an$, as &ommonl5 8oun$, no a)ilit5 to e;lain +ow killing a8ew ran$om eole woul$ a$van&e t+eir &ause.

3+ile t+e s&oe o8 t+e trage$5 in Boston s+oul$ not )e minimiHe$, it s+oul$ also )e note$ t+at i8 t+e terrorists7aim was to kill a large num)er o8 eole, t+eir bombs failed miserably. As re&ent &ases

in Dolora$o an$ Donne&ti&ut sa$l5 $emonstrate, 8ar more 8atalities +ave )een in@i&te$ )5 gunmen.

Be8ore Boston, some 1/ eole +a$ )een kille$ )5 >slamist terrorists in t+e nite$ tates in t+e

5ears sin&e 2001, an$ all o8 t+ese were mur$ere$ )5 eole w+o were essentiall5 a&ting alone. B5 &ontrast, in t+e19K0s, organiHe$ terrorists in@i&te$ +un$re$s o8 atta&ks, mostl5 )om)ings, in t+e nite$ tates, killing

L2.

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/4579/has_t




As &on&ern a)out organiHe$ atta&ks +as $iminis+e$, 8ear o8 lone wol8* atta&ks +as grown in re&ent 5ears, an$ oneoO&ial assessment &onten$s t+at lone oMen$ers &urrentl5 resent t+e greatest t+reat.*

:+is is a reasona)le o)servation, )ut t+ose &on&erne$ s+oul$ kee in min$ t+at, as anal5st 'a; A)ra+ms +as

note$, w+ile lone wolves ma5 )e $iO&ult to oli&e, t+e5 +ave &arrie$ out onl5 two o8 t+e 1,900most $ea$l5 terrorist atta&ks over t+e last 8our $e&a$es.

:+e ke5 uestion, at least outsi$e o8 war Hones, is not, are we sa8er* )ut +ow sa8e are we*

At &urrent rates, an Ameri&an7s &+an&e o8 )e&oming a vi&tim o8 terror ism in t+e .., evenwit+ 911 in t+e &al&ulation, is a)out 1 in <.2 million #er year. >n &omarison, t+at same

Ameri&an stan$s a 1 in 22,000 5earl5 &+an&e o8 )e&oming a +omi&i$e vi&tim, a 1 in ,000 &+an&e o8 eris+ing in anauto a&&i$ent, an$ a 1 in <00 &+an&e o8 $5ing 8rom &an&er.

:+ese &al&ulations are )ase$, o8 &ourse, on historical data. (owever, alarmists w+o woul$

re%e&t su&+ +istor5 nee$ to e;lain w+5 t+e5 t+ink terrorists will su$$enl5 )e&omevastl5 more &ometent in t+e 8uture.

But no one seems to )e making t+at argument. >n$ee$, notes one reorter, .. oO&ials now sa5 t+at alYae$a+as )e&ome less ca#able of a large attac! li!e '911. But s+e also sa5s t+at t+e5 ma$e t+is

$is&losure onl5 on &on$ition o8 anon5mit5 out o8 8ear t+at u)li&l5 i$enti85ing t+emselves &oul$ make t+em atarget* o8 terrorists.

>n &ontrast, one terrorism se&ialist, #eter Bergen, +as o)serve$ in +eroi& 8ull attri)ution mo$e t+at, :+elast terror atta&k in t+e 3estF was seven years ago in on$on,* t+at t+ere havent

been any maor attac!s in the U.S.,* an$ t+at t+e5 are re&ruiting no+oers an$$ea$en$ers.*

'.No desire, no mar!et, and loc!s chec!.'ueller, #oliti&al &ien&e at !+io tate, 11 [Jo+n, #ro8essor o8 #oliti&al &ien&e at!+io tate, :+e :rut+ A)out AlYae$a, August 2, 2011,+tt-www.8oreignaMairs.&omarti&les/012%o+nmuellert+etrut+a)outalae$a

ageTs+ow

Thus far terrorist groups seem to have exhibited only limited desire and even less progressin going atomic. This may be because, after brief exploration of the possible routes, they, unlike

generations of alarmists on the issue, have discovered that the tremendous effort required is

scarcely likely to be successful. It is highly improbable that a would-be atomic terroristwould be given or sold a bomb by a generous like-minded nuclear state because the donor could

not control its use and because the ultimate source of the weapon might be discovered. Although there

has been great worry about terrorists illicitly stealing or purchasing a nuclear weapon, it seems likely

that neither loose nukes! nor a market in illicit nuclear materials exists . "oreover,

finished bombs have been outfitted with an array of locks and safety devices. There could

be dangers in the chaos that would emerge if a nuclear state were utterly to fail, collapsing in full disarray.#owever, even under those conditions, nuclear weapons would likely remain under heavyguard by people who know that a purloined bomb would most likely end up going off in their own

territory, would still have locks, and could probably be followed and hunted down by an alarmed

international community. The most plausible route for terrorists would be to manufacture the device

themselves from purloined materials. This task requires that a considerable series of difficulthurdles be conquered in sequence, including the effective recruitment of people who at once have great

technical skills and will remain completely devoted to the cause. In addition, a host of corrupted co-

conspirators, many of them foreign, must remain utterly reliable, international and local security services



must be kept perpetually in the dark, and no curious outsider must get consequential wind of the pro$ect

over the months or even years it takes to pull off. In addition, the financial costs of the operation

could easily become monumental. "oreover, the difficulties are likely to increase becauseof enhanced protective and policing efforts by self-interested governments and because

any foiled attempt would expose flaws in the defense system, holes the defenders would then

plug. The evidence of al-%aeda&s desire to go atomic , and about its progress in accomplishing

this exceedingly difficult task, is remarkably skimpy, if not completely negligible. The scariest stuff'a

decade&s worth of loose nuke rumor'seems to have no substance whatever. (or the most part, terrorists

seem to be heeding the advice found in an al-%aeda laptop sei)ed in *akistan+ "ake use of that which is

available ... rather than waste valuable time becoming despondent over that which is not within your

reach.! In part because of current policies'but also because of a wealth of other technical andorgani)ational difficulties'the atomic terrorists& task is already monumental, and their likelihood of

success is vanishingly small. fforts to further enhance this monumentality, if cost-effective and

accompanied with only tolerable side effects, are generally desirable.



1NC Frontline – Short1. )he containers are the focus of the attac!s$$ a5 canYt solve

further ins#ection

/.ort 3conomy is im#ossibly resilient$$$ multi#le +arrants




Alt+oug+ t+e nite$ tates is &onsi$era)l5 more tra$e$een$ent to$a5 t+an inearlier erio$s, t+is otential vulnera)ilit5 is oMset )5 a num)er o8 8a&tors. "ne isthe shift from shi# to aircraft for delivery of many high$value, time$

sensitive goods, #articularly on the e4#ort side. e&on$, &ountermeasures toa terrorist strike, su&+ as in&rease$ inse&tions o8 &ontainers, ma5 )e more onerous8or imorts &oming 8rom un&ertain orts t+an 8or e;orts a&kage$ in t+e nite$tates. An$ alt+oug+ a wi$esrea$ la)or a&tion woul$ sto most maritime tra$e&omletel5, a terrorist strike woul$ onl5 slow tra$e rat+er t+an sto it. Dhenadded together, these factors mean that the disru#tion to the Io+ of

goods as a result of a current terrorist attac! could be roughly similar insiHe to the e5ect of a maor #ort stri!e in the 1'&0s.?4 :+ere8ore, we 8eelt+at t+ese +istori& la)or a&tions &orreson$ &losel5 enoug+ to t+e kin$ o8 ort$isrution t+at a terrorist atta&k mig+t )ring to tell us a lot a)out t+e ro)a)le eMe&ton t+e national e&onom5 o8 a terrorist atta&k on t+e orts. 3e will s+ow +ow t+esela)or a&tions are visi)le in t+e imort $ata an$ e;ort $ata o8 t+e erio$. >n all&ases, t+ere was a small in&rease in imort volume )e8ore t+ese a&tions, a $ro involume $uring t+e a&tion, an$ a large surge in imort volume a8ter t+e $isute wassettle$. @ecause of the siHe of that #ostdisru#tion volume surge, theoverall loss of trade during a labor action +as very small and in some

cases none4istent. )rade +as #ost#oned but not lost. Nor are t+e a$verse

eMe&ts o8 la)or a&tions evi$ent in ot+er $ata t+at we +ave e;amine$, in&lu$ing $atareorting ro$u&tion an$ emlo5ment. "ur results sho+ quite conclusivelythat the e5ect of these #ast stri!es on the greater economy +as

negligible. :+is is testimon5 artl5 to t+e great resilien&e o8 a mo$ern e&onom5.Short interru#tions to su##ly chains can be mitigated fully by dra+ingdo+n inventories, es#ecially if they +ere built u# in antici#ation of the

event. 3+en inventories are $elete$ an$ $eliver5 essential, &argo &an )e s+i8te$to air or lan$ t+roug+ a neig+)oring e&onom5. Some+hat longer interru#tions



can be com#ensated for through a tem#orary shift to domestic su##liersan es#ecially easy alternative if su##ly chains have built$in redundancies

that allo+ the needed Ie4ibility. ome &onsumers at t+e en$ o8 t+e sul5&+ain ma5 +ave to wait a w+ile or a5 +ig+er ri&es. :+e saleXan$ ro=tsXma5 )eostone$, )ut t+e5 are not revente$. !ur results $

o not sa5 t+at no )usiness was +urt )5 ort la)or a&tions or t+at ro=ts were nota$versel5 aMe&te$ )5 t+e in&rease in transa&tion &osts. ome in$ustries, some=rms, an$ some regions were surel5 a$versel5 aMe&te$. Nor $o we &laim t+at aterrorist atta&k on t+e orts an$ t+e resultant $isrution to t+e sul5 &+ain woul$not +arm an5 region or &oman5X&ertainl5 some =rms an$ regions woul$ )eaMe&te$. (owever, as is o8ten t+e &ase in a mo$ern &omle; e&onom5, w+en onein$ustr5 or area suMers as a result o8 some e&onomi& $istur)an&e, anot+er rosersas a result o8 an oMsetting s+i8t in $eman$- )here are +inners and losers. !urmain oint +ere is t+at t+ese ast $isrutions were insuO&ient to &ause an5noti&ea)le &+ange in t+e aggregate @ow o8 t+e e&onom5- Eit+er t+e losses weresmall &omare$ wit+ t+e overall e&onom5 or t+e5 were largel5 oMset )5 gains

elsew+ere. 3e )elieve t+at t+e same woul$ )e likel5 a8ter a terrorist atta&k on aort- >ts eMe&ts are not likel5 to s+ow u ot+er t+an in imorts an$ e;orts.

<.No im#act to economic decline – #refer ne+ data

aniel AreHner 1>, >R ro8 at :u8ts, :+e 5stem 3orke$- lo)al E&onomi&

overnan&e $uring t+e reat Re&ession, 3orl$ #oliti&s, Qolume //. Num)er 1, Januar5 2014, . 12?1/4

:+e =nal signi=&ant out&ome a$$resses a $og t+at +asn^t )arke$- t+e eMe&t o8 t+ereat Re&ession on &ross)or$er &on@i&t an$ violen&e. uring t+e initial stages o8t+e &risis, multile anal5sts asserte$ t+at t+e =nan&ial &risis woul$ lea$ states toin&rease t+eir use o8 8or&e as a tool 8or sta5ing in ower.42 :+e5 voi&e$ genuine&on&ern t+at t+e glo)al e&onomi& $ownturn woul$ lea$ to an in&rease in &on@i&tXw+et+er t+roug+ greater internal reression, $iversionar5 wars, arms ra&es, or arat&+eting u o8 great ower &on@i&t. Qiolen&e in t+e 'i$$le East, )or$er $isutes int+e out+ D+ina ea, an$ even t+e $isrutions o8 t+e !&&u5 movement 8uele$imressions o8 a surge in glo)al u)li& $isor$er. )he aggregate data suggest

other+ise, +owever. :+e >nstitute 8or E&onomi&s an$ #ea&e +as &on&lu$e$ t+att+e average level o8 ea&e8ulness in 2012 is aro;imatel5 t+e same as it was in

200L.4? >nterstate violen&e in arti&ular +as $e&line$ sin&e t+e start o8 t+e=nan&ial &risis, as +ave militar5 e;en$itures in most samle$ &ountries. !t+erstu$ies &on=rm t+at t+e reat Re&ession +as not triggere$ an5 in&rease in violent&on@i&t, as otta :+emner an$ #eter 3allensteen &on&lu$e- [:+e attern is one o8relative sta)ilit5 w+en we &onsi$er t+e tren$ 8or t+e ast =ve 5ears.44 :+e se&ular$e&line in violen&e t+at starte$ wit+ t+e en$ o8 t+e Dol$ 3ar +as not )een reverse$.Rogers Bru)aker o)serves t+at t+e &risis +as not to $ate generate$ t+e surge inrote&tionist nationalism or et+ni& e;&lusion t+at mig+t +ave )een e;e&te$.4?



>.No terrorismno lin!ages, e4#erts, your evidence is

alarmism, data,

Jo+n 7ueller oliti&al s&ientist at !+io tate an$ &oaut+or o8 :error, e&urit5, an$

'one5- Balan&ing t+e Risks, Bene=ts, an$ Dosts o8 (omelan$ e&urit5 (as t+et+reat 8rom terrorism )een e;aggerate$* :+e Dommentator 19814+tt-www.t+e&ommentator.&omarti&le4<L9+asVt+eVt+reatV8romVterrorismV)eenVe;aggerate$

:wo 5ears a8ter t+e rai$ on !sama )in a$en7s +i$eawa5, terrorism alarmists remain in eak 8orm

e;laining t+at alt+oug+ alYae$a +as )een weakene$ it still manages to resent a gravet+reat.

Qarious well+one$ te&+niues are alie$ to suort t+is &ontention. !ne is to es5 an$ assess various

linkages* or &onne&tions* o8 ties* or t+rea$s* )etween an$ among a range o8 $isarate terrorists or

terrorist grous, most o8 w+i&+ aear rat+er gossamer an$ o8 onl5 limite$ &onseuen&eon &loser e;amination.

Anot+er is to e4aggerate the im#ortance and e5ectiveness o8 t+e aOliate$grous* linke$ to alYae$a &entral. >n arti&ular, alarmists oint to t+e alYae$a aOliate in &+aoti& Semen,

ominousl5 +ailing it as t+e $ea$liest* an$ t+e most aggressive* o8 t+ese an$ a ma%or t+reat.*

Set its &+ie8 eMorts at international terrorism +ave failed abysmally- an un$erwear)om) an$ laser rinter )om)s on &argo lanes. 3it+ t+at tra&k re&or$, t+e grou ma5 ose a

ro)lem or &on&ern, )ut it scarcely #resents a maor threat outsi$e o8 war Hones.

'ore generall5, al$[aeda is its o+n +orst enemy,* as Ro)ert renier, a 8ormer to D>A

&ounterterrorism oO&ial, notes. 3+ere t+e5 +ave su&&ee$e$ initiall5, t+e5 ver5 ui&kl5$is&re$it t+emselves.*

An5 terrorist t+reat wit+in t+e $eveloe$ worl$ seems even less imressive. :+e Boston

terrorists o8 201? were t+e =rst in t+e nite$ tates sin&e 911 in w+i&+ >slamist terrorists a&tuall5 were a)leto assem)le an$ $etonate )om)s al)eit very #rimitive ones. But e;&et 8or t+at, t+e5$o not seem to +ave )een more &ometent t+an most o8 t+eir re$e&essors.

AmaHingl5, t+e5 aarentl5 t+oug+t t+e5 &oul$ some+ow get awa5 wit+ t+eir $ee$ even

t+oug+ t+e5 &+ose to set t+eir )om)s oM at t+e most+otogra+e$ sot on t+e lanet at t+e time. 'oreover, t+e5+a$ no &o+erent lan o8 es&ae an$, as &ommonl5 8oun$, no a)ilit5 to e;lain +ow killing a8ew ran$om eole woul$ a$van&e t+eir &ause.

3+ile t+e s&oe o8 t+e trage$5 in Boston s+oul$ not )e minimiHe$, it s+oul$ also )e note$ t+at i8 t+e terrorists7aim was to kill a large num)er o8 eole, t+eir bombs failed miserably. As re&ent &ases

in Dolora$o an$ Donne&ti&ut sa$l5 $emonstrate, 8ar more 8atalities +ave )een in@i&te$ )5 gunmen.

Be8ore Boston, some 1/ eole +a$ )een kille$ )5 >slamist terrorists in t+e nite$ tates in t+e

5ears sin&e 2001, an$ all o8 t+ese were mur$ere$ )5 eole w+o were essentiall5 a&ting alone. B5 &ontrast, in t+e19K0s, organiHe$ terrorists in@i&te$ +un$re$s o8 atta&ks, mostl5 )om)ings, in t+e nite$ tates, killing

L2.





As &on&ern a)out organiHe$ atta&ks +as $iminis+e$, 8ear o8 lone wol8* atta&ks +as grown in re&ent 5ears, an$ oneoO&ial assessment &onten$s t+at lone oMen$ers &urrentl5 resent t+e greatest t+reat.*

:+is is a reasona)le o)servation, )ut t+ose &on&erne$ s+oul$ kee in min$ t+at, as anal5st 'a; A)ra+ms +as

note$, w+ile lone wolves ma5 )e $iO&ult to oli&e, t+e5 +ave &arrie$ out onl5 two o8 t+e 1,900most $ea$l5 terrorist atta&ks over t+e last 8our $e&a$es.

:+e ke5 uestion, at least outsi$e o8 war Hones, is not, are we sa8er* )ut +ow sa8e are we*

At &urrent rates, an Ameri&an7s &+an&e o8 )e&oming a vi&tim o8 terror ism in t+e .., evenwit+ 911 in t+e &al&ulation, is a)out 1 in <.2 million #er year. >n &omarison, t+at same

Ameri&an stan$s a 1 in 22,000 5earl5 &+an&e o8 )e&oming a +omi&i$e vi&tim, a 1 in ,000 &+an&e o8 eris+ing in anauto a&&i$ent, an$ a 1 in <00 &+an&e o8 $5ing 8rom &an&er.

:+ese &al&ulations are )ase$, o8 &ourse, on historical data. (owever, alarmists w+o woul$

re%e&t su&+ +istor5 nee$ to e;lain w+5 t+e5 t+ink terrorists will su$$enl5 )e&omevastl5 more &ometent in t+e 8uture.

But no one seems to )e making t+at argument. >n$ee$, notes one reorter, .. oO&ials now sa5 t+at alYae$a+as )e&ome less ca#able of a large attac! li!e '911. But s+e also sa5s t+at t+e5 ma$e t+is

$is&losure onl5 on &on$ition o8 anon5mit5 out o8 8ear t+at u)li&l5 i$enti85ing t+emselves &oul$ make t+em atarget* o8 terrorists.

>n &ontrast, one terrorism se&ialist, #eter Bergen, +as o)serve$ in +eroi& 8ull attri)ution mo$e t+at, :+elast terror atta&k in t+e 3estF was seven years ago in on$on,* t+at t+ere havent

been any maor attac!s in the U.S.,* an$ t+at t+e5 are re&ruiting no+oers an$$ea$en$ers.*



no nu!e terror e4tsNo desire, no mar!et, and loc!s chec!.'ueller, #oliti&al &ien&e at !+io tate, 11 [Jo+n, #ro8essor o8 #oliti&al &ien&e at!+io tate, :+e :rut+ A)out AlYae$a, August 2, 2011,+tt-www.8oreignaMairs.&omarti&les/012%o+nmuellert+etrut+a)outalae$aageTs+ow

Thus far terrorist groups seem to have exhibited only limited desire and even less progress

in going atomic. This may be because, after brief exploration of the possible routes, they, unlike

generations of alarmists on the issue, have discovered that the tremendous effort required isscarcely likely to be successful. It is highly improbable that a would-be atomic terrorist

would be given or sold a bomb by a generous like-minded nuclear state because the donor could

not control its use and because the ultimate source of the weapon might be discovered. Although there

has been great worry about terrorists illicitly stealing or purchasing a nuclear weapon, it seems likely

that neither loose nukes! nor a market in illicit nuclear materials exists . "oreover,

finished bombs have been outfitted with an array of locks and safety devices. There could be dangers in the chaos that would emerge if a nuclear state were utterly to fail, collapsing in full disarray.

#owever, even under those conditions, nuclear weapons would likely remain under heavy

guard by people who know that a purloined bomb would most likely end up going off in their own

territory, would still have locks, and could probably be followed and hunted down by an alarmed

international community. The most plausible route for terrorists would be to manufacture the device

themselves from purloined materials. This task requires that a considerable series of difficult

hurdles be conquered in sequence, including the effective recruitment of people who at once have great

technical skills and will remain completely devoted to the cause. In addition, a host of corrupted co-conspirators, many of them foreign, must remain utterly reliable, international and local security services

must be kept perpetually in the dark, and no curious outsider must get consequential wind of the pro$ect

over the months or even years it takes to pull off. In addition, the financial costs of the operation

could easily become monumental. "oreover, the difficulties are likely to increase becauseof enhanced protective and policing efforts by self-interested governments and because

any foiled attempt would expose flaws in the defense system, holes the defenders would then

plug. The evidence of al-%aeda&s desire to go atomic , and about its progress in accomplishing

this exceedingly difficult task, is remarkably skimpy, if not completely negligible. The scariest stuff'a

decade&s worth of loose nuke rumor'seems to have no substance whatever. (or the most part, terrorists

seem to be heeding the advice found in an al-%aeda laptop sei)ed in *akistan+ "ake use of that which is

available ... rather than waste valuable time becoming despondent over that which is not within your reach.! In part because of current policies'but also because of a wealth of other technical and

organi)ational difficulties'the atomic terrorists& task is already monumental, and their likelihood of

success is vanishingly small. fforts to further enhance this monumentality, if cost-effective and

accompanied with only tolerable side effects, are generally desirable.



e4ts$#ort econ resilientort 3con is resilient$$$ an attac! +ould only cause short term

shoc!sE$war$ E. eamer an$ D+risto+er :+orn)erg, #rote&ting t+e Nation7s eaorts-

Balan&ing e&urit5 an$ DostE$war$ E. eamer is t+e D+aun&e5 J. 'e$)err5 #ro8essor o8 'anagement, ro8essor o8 e&onomi&s,an$ ro8essor o8 statisti&s at DA, an$ $ire&tor o8 t+e DA An$erson Core&ast. A8ter serving as assistant an$ asso&iate ro8essor at (arvar$, +e %oine$DA in 19L< an$ serve$ as &+air o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment 8rom 19? to 19L. >n 1990, +e move$ to t+e An$erson ra$uate &+ool o8 'anagement.(e re&eive$ a B.A. in mat+emati&s 8rom #rin&eton niversit5 an$ an '.A. in mat+emati&s an$ a #+.. in e&onomi&s 8rom t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e +asu)lis+e$ 8our )ooks an$ more t+an 100 arti&les. (is resear&+ aers in e&onometri&s +ave )een &olle&te$ in tur$5 E&onometri&s, u)lis+e$ in t+eE$war$ Elgar eries o8 E&onomists o8 t+e 20t+ Dentur5. (is resear&+ in international e&onomi&s an$ e&onometri& met+o$olog5 +as )een $is&usse$ in New(oriHons in E&onomi& :+oug+t- Araisals o8 ea$ing E&onomists. (e is a 8ellow o8 t+e Ameri&an A&a$em5 o8 Arts an$ &ien&es an$ a 8ellow o8 t+eE&onometri& o&iet5. (e is also a resear&+ asso&iate o8 t+e National Bureau o8 E&onomi& Resear&+ an$ &urrentl5 is on t+e a$visor5 )oar$ o8 t+e Bureau o8E&onomi& Anal5sis o8 t+e .. Dommer&e eartmentD+risto+er :+orn)erg is a senior e&onomist wit+ t+e DA An$erson Core&ast an$ aut+ors t+eAn$erson Core&ast 8or Dali8ornia as well as 8or t+e os Angeles an$ East Ba5 regions. (e se&ialiHes in international an$ la)or e&onomi&s. (e +as )eeninvolve$ in a num)er o8 se&ial stu$ies measuring t+e eMe&t o8 imortant events on t+e e&onom5, in&lu$ing t+e Nort+ Ameri&an Cree :ra$e Agreement,t+e Dali8ornia ower &risis, an$ t+e etem)er 11 terrorist atta&ks. (e re&eive$ +is B.. in )usiness a$ministration 8rom t+e tate niversit52L0 o8 New Sork at BuMalo an$ +is #+.. in )usiness e&onomi&s 8rom t+e An$erson &+ool. (e was reviousl5 on t+e 8a&ult5 o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment at Dlemson


>t is easy, ho+ever, to overestimate these secondary e5ects. 3e +ave to )e&are8ul a)out $istinguis+ing )etween events t+at &ause )usiness to )e $ela5e$ an$t+ose t+at &ause )usiness to )e &an&elle$. Qer5 s+ortrun $isrutions to tra$eXw+et+er )5 severe weat+er, traO& ro)lems at t+e ort, or a small terrorist atta&kX+ave almost no net eMe&t on t+e e&onom5, sin&e t+e $isrutions &ause$ are littlemore t+an w+at +aens $uring t+e normal, ran$om, $a5to$a5 li8e o8 &ommer&e.Small delays have no measurable e5ect, and *rms very often have e4cess

ca#acity in order to deal +ith une4#ected Iuctuations in demand. An$alt+oug+ &onsumers mig+t sto @5ing as a result o8 an in&i$ent, t+e5 ma5 instea$)egin to )u5 more &ars wit+ t+e mone5 t+e5 $i$ not sen$ on air travel. Posses inone #lace may be o5set by gains else+here. !nl5 sustaine$ s+o&ks to t+e

e&onom5 will +ave an5 ermanent eMe&t on t+e e&onom5, an$ +ere we must )e&are8ul to re&ogniHe t+at t+e e&onom5 is &omose$ o8 &ons&ious agents w+o willa$%ust lans an$ use resour&es in $iMerent?L wa5s to mitigate $amages. 3e mustnot un$erestimate t+e resilien&e o8 a 8reeenterrise e&onom5

'911 #roves that shoc!s to trade dont cause a recession$$

multi#le +arrants


an$ ro8essor o8 statisti&s at DA, an$ $ire&tor o8 t+e DA An$erson Core&ast. A8ter serving as assistant an$ asso&iate ro8essor at (arvar$, +e %oine$

DA in 19L< an$ serve$ as &+air o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment 8rom 19? to 19L. >n 1990, +e move$ to t+e An$erson ra$uate &+ool o8 'anagement.(e re&eive$ a B.A. in mat+emati&s 8rom #rin&eton niversit5 an$ an '.A. in mat+emati&s an$ a #+.. in e&onomi&s 8rom t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e +asu)lis+e$ 8our )ooks an$ more t+an 100 arti&les. (is resear&+ aers in e&onometri&s +ave )een &olle&te$ in tur$5 E&onometri&s, u)lis+e$ in t+eE$war$ Elgar eries o8 E&onomists o8 t+e 20t+ Dentur5. (is resear&+ in international e&onomi&s an$ e&onometri& met+o$olog5 +as )een $is&usse$ in New(oriHons in E&onomi& :+oug+t- Araisals o8 ea$ing E&onomists. (e is a 8ellow o8 t+e Ameri&an A&a$em5 o8 Arts an$ &ien&es an$ a 8ellow o8 t+eE&onometri& o&iet5. (e is also a resear&+ asso&iate o8 t+e National Bureau o8 E&onomi& Resear&+ an$ &urrentl5 is on t+e a$visor5 )oar$ o8 t+e Bureau o8E&onomi& Anal5sis o8 t+e .. Dommer&e eartmentD+risto+er :+orn)erg is a senior e&onomist wit+ t+e DA An$erson Core&ast an$ aut+ors t+eAn$erson Core&ast 8or Dali8ornia as well as 8or t+e os Angeles an$ East Ba5 regions. (e se&ialiHes in international an$ la)or e&onomi&s. (e +as )eeninvolve$ in a num)er o8 se&ial stu$ies measuring t+e eMe&t o8 imortant events on t+e e&onom5, in&lu$ing t+e Nort+ Ameri&an Cree :ra$e Agreement,t+e Dali8ornia ower &risis, an$ t+e etem)er 11 terrorist atta&ks. (e re&eive$ +is B.. in )usiness a$ministration 8rom t+e tate niversit52L0 o8 New Sork at BuMalo an$ +is #+.. in )usiness e&onomi&s 8rom t+e An$erson &+ool. (e was reviousl5 on t+e 8a&ult5 o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment at Dlemson




etem)er 11 i$ Not Dause t+e 2001 Re&ession :+ere is a strong ten$en&5 to)lame too man5 se&on$ar5 eMe&ts on $isasters. A goo$ e;amle o8 t+is+enomenon is 8oun$ in t+e etem)er 11 atta&ks on New Sork an$ 3as+ington,.D. >n t+e $a5s a8ter t+e atta&ks, t+e r+etori& regar$ing t+e otential eMe&t on t+e

national e&onom5 was )ot+ loud and +rong. :+e t+eor5 roose$ )5 man5anal5sts an$ %ournalists was t+at s5&+ologi&all5 8ragile &onsumers in t+e nite$tates woul$ suMer a &risis an$ sto sen$ing, $riving t+e e&onom5 into a $eeerre&ession. uort 8or t+is t+eor5 &ame 8rom t+e =rst ul8 3ar, w+i&+ suose$l5&ause$ a similar &onsumer &risis o8 &on=$en&e t+at in turn $rove us into a re&essionin 1990. Cor e;amle, t+e 3all treet Journal reorte$ on etem)er 1?, 2001- #asts+o&ks to Ameri&a7s sense o8 se&urit5, su&+ as t+e !kla+oma Dit5 )om)ing or t+eul8 3ar, +ave romte$ &onsumers to ull )a&k temoraril5 on ma%or ur&+asesan$ ot+er $is&retionar5 sen$ing,* sai$ Ri&+ar$ Durtin, $ire&tor o8 surve5s o8&onsumers at t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e e;e&ts a similar rea&tion now, w+i&+&oul$ mean a roug+ time in t+e ne;t several weeks 8or t+e e&onom5, w+i&+ was

alrea$5 struggling wit+ rising %o)less rates an$ +ig+ &onsumer $e)t )ur$ens. 3ewere teetering on t+e e$ge, an$ t+is mig+t well us+ us over,* sai$ 'r. Durtin. )his

hy#othesis ignores the facts and com#letely overstates the #sychological

fragility of merican consumers. )he 1''0 recession +as not caused by

the *rst :ulf Dar at all. Resi$ential investment an$ e;en$itures on &onsumer$ura)les t5i&all5 are lea$ing in$i&ators o8 t+e e&onom5. 3+en sen$ing on t+eseitems )egins to 8all as a er&entage o8 gross $omesti& ro$u&t #F, t+is is astrong in$i&ation o8 an un$erl5ing weakness in t+e e&onom5 t+at will &reate are&ession. E;en$itures in t+ese two se&tors +a$ $roe$ 8rom 14 er&ent o8 # to)elow 12 er&ent o8 # in t+e t+ree 5ears re&e$ing t+e 1990 $ownturnXand

before the :ulf +ar. :+ere +as never )een su&+ a $ro t+at $i$ not eventuall5

lea$ to a re&ession, wit+ one e;&etionXin 19/L, w+en t+e e&onom5 was wo))ling,aearing to )e on t+e verge o8? re&ession, t+e s+ar in&rease in sen$ing 8or t+eQietnam 3ar roelle$ t+e e&onom5 8orwar$. )his +as ust the reverse of +hat

7r. Curtin suggested. imilarl5, t+e .. e&onom5 $i$ not slow $own a8ter t+eetem)er 11 atta&ksW in$ee$, t+e e&onom5 was in t+e mi$st o8 a&&elerating itswa5 out o8 t+e 2001 )usinessle$ $ownturn t+at +a$ )egun in t+e mi$$le o8 2000.An$ alt+oug+ &onsumer &on=$en&e 8ell s+arl5 a8ter t+e atta&ks, &onsumersen$ing in t+e 8ourt+ uarter grew at an unre&e$ente$ L er&ent seasonall5a$%uste$ annual rate AARF, one o8 t+e s+arest in&reases seen in t+e ast $e&a$eCigure 2.2F. nemlo5ment $i$ rise s+arl5 a8ter t+e event, )ut t+is seeme$ to )erimaril5 an a&&eleration o8 t+e emlo5ment loss t+at woul$ +ave )een e;e&te$

given t+e weak e&onomi& &limate. :+is was ese&iall5 true )e&ause labor mar!ets+ere still overheated from the tech$fueled economic boom of the latenineties. Retail sales $i$ $ro s+arl5 in etem)er 2001 )ut also re)oun$e$s+arl5 in !&to)er an$ returne$ to tren$ in Novem)erX)usiness Cigure 2.2Xrowt+in Real # an$ Donsumer en$ing, 2000G2002?9 $ela5e$, not )usiness&an&elle$. >n$ee$, it is +ar$ to =n$ an5 evi$en&e o8 an eMe&t o8 t+e etem)er 11atta&ks on t+e aggregate e&onom5, wit+ t+e e;&etion o8 t+at on t+e air travelin$ustr5. Even in t+at &ase, t+e in$ustr5 was in $ee trou)le )e8ore+an$, wit+ ro=t



margins $iing into t+e re$ in t+e )eginning o8 2000Xlong )e8ore t+e atta&ks.3ven then, it must be remembered that total consumer s#ending +ent u#,

so the dollars that +ere not s#ent on air travel +ent to some other #art of

the economy

ort econ is incredible resilient$$an attac! +ould not be able to

destroy the #orts ability to o#erateE$war$ E. eamer an$ D+risto+er :+orn)erg, #rote&ting t+e Nation7s eaorts-Balan&ing e&urit5 an$ DostE$war$ E. eamer is t+e D+aun&e5 J. 'e$)err5 #ro8essor o8 'anagement, ro8essor o8 e&onomi&s,

an$ ro8essor o8 statisti&s at DA, an$ $ire&tor o8 t+e DA An$erson Core&ast. A8ter serving as assistant an$ asso&iate ro8essor at (arvar$, +e %oine$DA in 19L< an$ serve$ as &+air o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment 8rom 19? to 19L. >n 1990, +e move$ to t+e An$erson ra$uate &+ool o8 'anagement.(e re&eive$ a B.A. in mat+emati&s 8rom #rin&eton niversit5 an$ an '.A. in mat+emati&s an$ a #+.. in e&onomi&s 8rom t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e +asu)lis+e$ 8our )ooks an$ more t+an 100 arti&les. (is resear&+ aers in e&onometri&s +ave )een &olle&te$ in tur$5 E&onometri&s, u)lis+e$ in t+eE$war$ Elgar eries o8 E&onomists o8 t+e 20t+ Dentur5. (is resear&+ in international e&onomi&s an$ e&onometri& met+o$olog5 +as )een $is&usse$ in New(oriHons in E&onomi& :+oug+t- Araisals o8 ea$ing E&onomists. (e is a 8ellow o8 t+e Ameri&an A&a$em5 o8 Arts an$ &ien&es an$ a 8ellow o8 t+eE&onometri& o&iet5. (e is also a resear&+ asso&iate o8 t+e National Bureau o8 E&onomi& Resear&+ an$ &urrentl5 is on t+e a$visor5 )oar$ o8 t+e Bureau o8E&onomi& Anal5sis o8 t+e .. Dommer&e eartmentD+risto+er :+orn)erg is a senior e&onomist wit+ t+e DA An$erson Core&ast an$ aut+ors t+eAn$erson Core&ast 8or Dali8ornia as well as 8or t+e os Angeles an$ East Ba5 regions. (e se&ialiHes in international an$ la)or e&onomi&s. (e +as )eeninvolve$ in a num)er o8 se&ial stu$ies measuring t+e eMe&t o8 imortant events on t+e e&onom5, in&lu$ing t+e Nort+ Ameri&an Cree :ra$e Agreement,t+e Dali8ornia ower &risis, an$ t+e etem)er 11 terrorist atta&ks. (e re&eive$ +is B.. in )usiness a$ministration 8rom t+e tate niversit52L0 o8 New

Sork at BuMalo an$ +is #+.. in )usiness e&onomi&s 8rom t+e An$erson &+ool. (e was reviousl5 on t+e 8a&ult5 o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment at Dlemsonniversit5. DA An$erson Core&ast, #orts, :ra$e, an$ :errorism- Balan&ing t+e Datastro+i& an$ t+eD+roni&, g ?1, +tt-www.i&.org&ontentu)sreortRV/0/J(R.$8AK#F

A &ursor5 look woul$ seem to orten$ a $ramati&, $angerous s&enario, )ut a &loserlook at t+e 8a&ts suggests ot+erwise. Crom an inutoutut erse&tive, a wi$evariet5 o8 +oles woul$ )e ui&kl5 &reate$ in t+e @ow o8 ro$u&tion t+at woul$ seemto lea$ to a ver5 s+ar $ownturn in e&onomi& a&tivit5. @ut our economy is not a

mechanical systemZ it is an organic self$healing system, mu&+ like t+at o8 a+uman )eing- arge in%uries take time to +eal, )ut 8or t+e most art t+e5 $o

eventuall5 +eal. :o &ontinue t+e analog5, a ort atta&k is onl5 a &ut on t+e armXui&kl5 +eale$ wit+ little noti&ea)le eMe&t on t+e $a5to$a5 8un&tioning o8 t+eerson. Alt+oug+ t+e orts o8 os Angeles an$ ong Bea&+ &ertainl5 reresent arimar5 in8rastru&ture target in t+e nite$ tates, a &omlete s+ut$own o8 t+e ortsis +ig+l5 unlikel5 as a $ire&t result o8 some +5si&al atta&k. )here are t+o

reasons for this= the sheer #hysical scale of the facilities and the largeamount of e4cess #hysical ca#acity as oose$ to +uman &aital &aa&it5F&urrentl5 in la&e. As s+own in t+e ort ma on . ;;iii, t+e two 8a&ilities take uaro;imatel5 12 suare miles o8 sa&e in a si;)58ourmile area. :+e &omle; is)roken into a num)er o8 searate 5ar$s, ea&+ &omletel5 &ontrolle$ )5 a num)er o8in$een$ent, &ometing ma%or s+iing lines, ea&+ o8 w+i&+ +ave su)stantial

investment in t+e +5si&al &ranes an$ euiment on t+eir roert5. ome o8 t+ese5ar$s are on :erminal >slan$, &onne&te$ to t+e mainlan$ )5 t+ree roa$ )ri$ges an$ arailroa$W ot+ers are on t+e mainlan$ itsel8. :+ere are multile a&&ess oints into t+earea as t+e ma s+ows, in&lu$ing two +ig+wa5s. Even i8 t+ese roa$s were s+ut$own, it woul$ )e relativel5 simle to &onstru&t a temorar5 )ri$ge to t+e islan$,an$ alt+oug+ it mig+t +ave some imli&ations 8or t+e movement o8 s+is, no 5ar$woul$ )e eMe&tivel5 isolate$.? Donventional weaons woul$ )e a)le to $amage, at)est, onl5 a small ortion o8 t+e &omle;, an$ woul$ )e una)le to isolate a



su)stantial ortion o8 t+e ort given t+e multile a&&ess routes into an$ out o8 t+earea. Even a so$called dirty bomb could cover only one or t+o square

miles of area +ith radioactivity. iven t+e lo&ation on t+e water, win$s woul$ui&kl5 )low most o8 t+e ra$ioa&tive materials awa5, leaving even most o8 t+einitiall5 aMe&te$ area ui&kl5 reusa)le. :+e onl5 known weaon t+at &oul$ take out

an area o8 t+is siHe 8or an e;ten$e$ erio$ o8 time woul$ )e a nu&lear weaon. >tseems more likel5 t+at t+e :emorar5 )ri$ges are use$ in man5 &ir&umstan&essurroun$ing $isasters, &onstru&tion, an$ militar5 a&tion. Cor e;amle, t+e Baile5Bri$ge Doman5 www. )aile5)ri$ge.&omF ro$u&es )ri$ges t+at &an )e set u in$a5s 8or use in &onstru&tion Hones. :+is &oman5 )egan )5 rovi$ing ontoon)ri$ges in 3orl$ 3ar >> t+at &oul$ &arr5 tanks t+at &ommonl5 weig+ ?0 to ?< tons.

:+e .. Arm5 +as a se&ial grou, t+e 299t+ Engineer Doman5 'ultiRole Bri$geDoman5F, w+i&+ se&ialiHes in )uil$ing ontoon )ri$ges. :+e 299t+ )uilt one overt+e Eu+rates River in 200? $uring t+e >ra &on@i&t. :+is @oat )ri$ge was 1<meters long.4< target o8 su&+ a +orri=& $evi&e woul$ )e a $ensel5 oulate$ area,not a ort. iven t+at it is unlikel5 8or t+e entire ort &omle; to )e &lose$ 8or ane;ten$e$ erio$ as a result o8 an atta&k, t+e ne;t uestion is w+at woul$ +aen i8an atta&k instea$ $estro5e$ onl5 a ortion o8 t+e ort 8a&ilities. n$er t+is s&enario,t+e eMe&t on tra$e an$ an5 se&on$ar5 eMe&ts woul$ $een$ on t+e a)ilit5 o8 t+e8un&tioning ortions o8 t+e ort to i&k u t+e sla&k. Alt+oug+ t+e stories o8&ongestion at t+e ort an$ ongoing lans 8or e;ansion seem to iml5 t+at t+e ortsare running &lose to or at &aa&it5, they are not actually near ca#acityat

least not from a #hysical #ers#ective. 'ost o8 t+e 5ear, t+e various 8a&ilitiesrun onl5 one s+i8t er $a5. uring erio$s o8 in&rease$ tra$e a&tivit5, t+e5 ma5 runtwo or, in t+e most $eserate o8 &ir&umstan&es, t+ree. 'ultile s+i8ts, +owever, arever5 unusual )e&ause o8 t+e in&rease$ la)or &osts an$ work restri&tions o8 la)oragreements. @ut if the man#o+er +ere available, each yard in the facilitycould li!ely move at least t+ice as much merchandise through if it ran />

hours a day. >n$ee$, t+is oint +as )een ma$e &learer t+an ever in re&ent mont+sas lo&al oO&ials +ave move$ $e&isivel5 to re$u&e mi$$a5 &ongestion aroun$ t+eorts )5 &+arging a 8ee to &omanies t+at want to move goo$s an$ ro$u&ts intoan$ out o8 t+e orts $uring normal )usiness +ours. >t is un$erstoo$ t+at t+e ortin8rastru&ture is largel5 un$eruse$ $uring most o8 t+e $a5, an$ t+at e&onomi&in&entives are nee$e$ to use it more eO&ientl5. >8 a ortion o8 t+e &omle; were&lose$ as a result o8 $amage to its transortation in8rastru&ture, it woul$ )erelativel5 simle to trans8er t+e s+iing into ot+er 8a&ilities. 3e assume t+at in t+eevent o8 a national emergen&5, &ometing s+iing &omanies woul$ s+are8a&ilities.

terror attac! +ould not a5ect the entirety of the #ort

economy$$ other sectors #ic! u# the #aceE$war$ E. eamer an$ D+risto+er :+orn)erg, #rote&ting t+e Nation7s eaorts-Balan&ing e&urit5 an$ DostE$war$ E. eamer is t+e D+aun&e5 J. 'e$)err5 #ro8essor o8 'anagement, ro8essor o8 e&onomi&s,

an$ ro8essor o8 statisti&s at DA, an$ $ire&tor o8 t+e DA An$erson Core&ast. A8ter serving as assistant an$ asso&iate ro8essor at (arvar$, +e %oine$DA in 19L< an$ serve$ as &+air o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment 8rom 19? to 19L. >n 1990, +e move$ to t+e An$erson ra$uate &+ool o8 'anagement.(e re&eive$ a B.A. in mat+emati&s 8rom #rin&eton niversit5 an$ an '.A. in mat+emati&s an$ a #+.. in e&onomi&s 8rom t+e niversit5 o8 'i&+igan. (e +asu)lis+e$ 8our )ooks an$ more t+an 100 arti&les. (is resear&+ aers in e&onometri&s +ave )een &olle&te$ in tur$5 E&onometri&s, u)lis+e$ in t+e



E$war$ Elgar eries o8 E&onomists o8 t+e 20t+ Dentur5. (is resear&+ in international e&onomi&s an$ e&onometri& met+o$olog5 +as )een $is&usse$ in New(oriHons in E&onomi& :+oug+t- Araisals o8 ea$ing E&onomists. (e is a 8ellow o8 t+e Ameri&an A&a$em5 o8 Arts an$ &ien&es an$ a 8ellow o8 t+eE&onometri& o&iet5. (e is also a resear&+ asso&iate o8 t+e National Bureau o8 E&onomi& Resear&+ an$ &urrentl5 is on t+e a$visor5 )oar$ o8 t+e Bureau o8E&onomi& Anal5sis o8 t+e .. Dommer&e eartmentD+risto+er :+orn)erg is a senior e&onomist wit+ t+e DA An$erson Core&ast an$ aut+ors t+eAn$erson Core&ast 8or Dali8ornia as well as 8or t+e os Angeles an$ East Ba5 regions. (e se&ialiHes in international an$ la)or e&onomi&s. (e +as )eeninvolve$ in a num)er o8 se&ial stu$ies measuring t+e eMe&t o8 imortant events on t+e e&onom5, in&lu$ing t+e Nort+ Ameri&an Cree :ra$e Agreement,t+e Dali8ornia ower &risis, an$ t+e etem)er 11 terrorist atta&ks. (e re&eive$ +is B.. in )usiness a$ministration 8rom t+e tate niversit52L0 o8 New Sork at BuMalo an$ +is #+.. in )usiness e&onomi&s 8rom t+e An$erson &+ool. (e was reviousl5 on t+e 8a&ult5 o8 t+e E&onomi&s eartment at Dlemson

niversit5. DA An$erson Core&ast, #orts, :ra$e, an$ :errorism- Balan&ing t+e Datastro+i& an$ t+e

D+roni&, g ?1, +tt-www.i&.org&ontentu)sreortRV/0/J(R.$8AK#F

Curt+ermore, t+e la)or stoages o8 earlier eras +a$ a $ual eMe&t on t+e e&onom5)e&ause t+e5 stoe$ )ot+ e;orts an$ imorts. For the terrorist scenario +e

lay out, +e feel that such an attac! +ould a5ect im#orts far more than

e4#orts, reducing the overall siHe of the shoc! to the economy. :+e s+i8t int+e &omosition o8 tra$e woul$ also attenuate t+e eMe&t on t+e e&onom5. Nonetroleum in$ustrial sulies ma$e u ?/ er&ent o8 all goo$s imorts in 19/L,w+ereas &onsumer an$ ot+er ro$u&ts ma$e u onl5 22 er&ent. B5 &omarison,in$ustrial sulies make u onl5 1< er&ent o8 imorts now, w+ereas &onsumer an$

ot+er goo$s make u ?1 er&ent. >8 a &riti&al &omonent o8 a manu8a&turing line8ails to arrive, t+at mig+t &ause wi$esrea$ $isrution, but the lac! of yetanother lam# made in China on Dal$7art shelves +ould not. >n$ee$, su&+$istur)an&e to t+e atterns o8 tra$e @ows &oul$ &reate a$$itional &onsumtion$eman$ 8or ro$u&ts ma$e +ereXtemoraril5 imroving t+e %o) markets inmanu8a&turing. A$$itionall5, $omesti& ro$u&tion o8 goo$s is now a smallerroortion o8 #, iml5ing t+at a $istur)an&e to sul5 &+ains into t+e goo$sse&tors woul$ +ave a smaller overall eMe&t on t+e e&onom5. >n t+e si;ties, t+ero$u&tion o8 goo$s ma$e u nearl5 +al8 o8 t+e e&onom5. :o$a5, it is 8ar less t+an at+ir$, as servi&es +ave )een t+e rimar5 growt+ ortion o8 t+e e&onom5. Cinall5,&ommuni&ation an$ in8ormations+aring is 8ar easier t+an it was ?0 5ears ago,

making it easier 8or =rms to =n$ alternative suliers or alternative routes 8orro$u&ts in t+e event o8 some $istur)an&e to t+eir sul5 &+ain. )he result is that

*rms are more nimble and more ca#able of eRciently handling #roblems

+ith their su##ly chains, not less. !t+er eO&ien&ies in&lu$e s+orter ro$u&tionruns an$ an in&rease in =rms in t+e sulier )usiness t+at now tout t+eir a)ilit5 torovi$e se&ial nee$s in s+ort or$er. As 8or our %ustintime e&onom5, alt+oug+ it istrue t+at t+e inventor5tosales ratio +as 8allen 8rom 1./9 to 1.?/ 8or manu8a&turingin$ustries in t+e ast 40 5ears, it +as a&tuall5 in&rease$ 8or t+e w+olesale an$ retailtra$e se&tors :a)le 2.?F. ll these factors indicate that although #ast #ort

shutdo+ns may not be the #erfect e4am#le of the e5ect of a terrorist

attac! on our #orts today, they should be very informative. 3e mig+t

&onsi$er t+is a low estimate 8or t+e otential 8or $istur)an&e to t+e aggregatee&onom5, )ut it is &ertainl5 a soli$ estimate.



Bes Dar Core



1NC Bes Dar"bsolete doesnt mean im#ossiblethe fact that maor +ars

are not in the best interests of states is not a reason that +ars

+ont ha##en. 7iscalculation and irrationality are inevitable.

:reat #o+er +ar is #ossible and comes *rst – their evidencecant account for irrational actors, em#irical deterrence Ia+s,

or aggressive nationalism

:osnell and "rHetti 1/ [Ra&+ael, ieutenant Domman$er Nav5, ra$uate

egree in >nternational e&urit5 at eorgetown niversit5, an$ 'i&+ael, e&on$ieutenant 'arine Dors, 'aster7s egree 8rom eorgetown niversit57sE$mun$ A. 3als+ &+ool o8 Coreign ervi&e, #ro&ee$ings 'agaHine, Aril 2012, Qol.1?41,?10, Now (ear :+is G >s reat#ower 3ar till #ossi)le,*+tt-www.usni.orgmagaHinesro&ee$ings201204now+eargreatowerwarstillossi)le 3

:+e Denter 8or Naval Anal5ses re&entl5 u)lis+e$ ran$ trateg5- Dontemorar5Donten$ing Anal5st Qiews an$ >mli&ations 8or t+e .. Nav5, a surve5 o8 otential.. strategies )eing $e)ate$ in t+e a&a$emi& an$ $e8ense &ommunities. :+e stu$5i$enti=es 8our &ometing lines o8 strategi& t+oug+t- maintaining Ameri&an+egemon5, sele&tive engagement, oMs+ore )alan&ing, an$ integrating &olle&tiveinternational eMorts. :wo a$$itional otionsXisolationism an$ worl$ governmentXare note$ an$ $isregar$e$ as not via)le. n$er t+is list o8 strategi& otions a s+ar $ivision is

aarent, $i&tate$ )5 t+e uestion, >s greatower war o)solete * :+is 8un$amental uestionmust )e answere$ )e8ore an5 logi&al strategi& $e&isions &an )e ma$e. -f great$

#o+er +ar is #ossible, then the de facto e4istential threat to U.S.interests, latent in the international system, must be addressed before all

others. :+ere are enormous imli&ations 8or weaon ro&urement, oerational$o&trine, an$ 8or&e levels $riven )5 t+is single issue. lo)al strategists oint toe&onomi& glo)aliHation an$ t+e roli8eration o8 nu&lear weaons as mo$ernguarantors o8 ea&e among ma%or owers. (owever, we &onten$ t+at these very

rational hedges against violence can still be shattered by decidedly

irrational and reactionary forces . :+us, t+e ossi)ilit5 o8 greatower war)etween D+ina an$ t+e nite$ tates cannot be ruled out. E&onomi&inter$een$en&e oMers )ene=ts )e5on$ t+e s+eer trans8er o8 &aital an$ goo$sXt+ere &an )e no $ou)t o8 t+at. (owever, history renders globaliHationsdeterrent e5ects at least some+hat questionable. u)stantial e&onomi&inter$een$en&e e;iste$ t+roug+out Euroe rior to 3orl$ 3ar >, an$ Jaan was

+ugel5 $een$ent on Ameri&an oil imorts in t+e 5ears lea$ing u to 3orl$ 3ar >> . >twas t+is $een$en&e t+at ma$e t+e . oil em)argo intolera)le, ultimatel5motivating t+e Jaanese to atta&k #earl (ar)or. !n t+e ot+er +an$, t+e e;istentialt+reat o8 nu&lear weaons +as &ertainl5 resulte$ in a universal $esire kee#an$ora7s Bo; =rml5 s+ut. 3+ile we &on&e$e t+e remarka)le a)ilit5 o8 weaons o8mass $estru&tion to $amen t+e os&illations o8 greatower relations, it is unclear

that the nuclear restraint against total +ar ever ta!es limited +ar o5 the

table as a strategic o#tion. 'ore 8un$amentall5, t+oug+, t+e arguments 8or a nu&lear

http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-04/now-hear-great-power-war-still-possible






)ase$ state o8 ea&e* are &onstraine$ )5 t+e limits o8 rationalit5. 6ationalbounds do not a##ly to the e#hemeralyet e4tremely #o+erful +aves of

bellicose nationalism that can s+ee# u# an entire nation. National ri$e isem)e$$e$ in t+e D+inese NAXan$ rig+tl5 so. >n &ertain segments o8 so&iet5,+owever, t+e sentiment mani8ests itsel8 wit+ a arti&ular 8ervor, an$ some elements

o8 t+e #eole7s i)eration Arm5 #AF eitomiHe t+is Heal. Alarmingl5, t+eDommunist #art5 lea$ers+i aears in&reasingl5 una)le to a&t as a &+e&k on t+emilitar5. Bot+ 'ao ]e$ong an$ eng _iaoing +a$ iron&la$ &ontrol over t+e #A,+aving earne$ unuestiona)le &re$i)ilit5 $uring t+e ong 'ar&+. Neit+er enerale&retar5 o8 t+e Dommunist #art5 (u Jintao nor Cirst e&retar5 _i Jining &an &laim asimilar raort wit+ t+e #A. Neit+er ossesses a &omara)le level o8 &ontrol. An5surge o8 aggressive nationalism , eit+er in t+e #A or among t+e greater masses,&oul$ &on&eiva)l5 &omel &ontemorar5 art5 lea$ers+i towar$ a )elli&osit5 it$oes not $esire . (ow mig+t t+is +aen :+e two most likel5 s&enarios $eal wit+D+inese &ore interests* in t+e #a&i=&- sovereignt5 in t+e out+ D+ina ea an$

:aiwan. :+e out+ D+ina ea is no stranger to &on@i&t. >ts lo&ation an$ material romise +ave le$ to a +ost o8

&on@i&ting territorial &laims an$ )roug+t t+e D+inese an$ Qietnamese to arme$ &on@i&t over t+e ratl5 >slan$s in

t+e late 190s. A8ter a erio$ o8 relative &alm, tensions +ave on&e again )egun to @are. Ameri&an &ommitment to8ree$om o8 t+e seas in t+e region, e;emli=e$ )5 e&retar5 o8 tate (illar5 Dlinton7s Jul5 2010 see&+ in (anoi,Qietnam, rovi$es amle oortunit5 8or a inoAmeri&an )utting o8 +ea$s. imilarl5, t+e Reu)li& o8 D+ina remainsa erenniall5 sore issue 8or t+e D+ineseW t+e 8uror over t+e sale o8 Ameri&an C1/s rovi$es an amle lat8orm 8or8uture, moreolariHing intera&tions over :aiwan. 3ar )etween D+ina an$ t+e nite$ tates is unlikel5. E&onomi&

inter$een$en&e an$ nu&lear weaons are ower8ul, ersuasive $eterrents against it. (owever, inoAmeri&an$ealings, arti&ularl5 in :aiwan or t+e out+ D+ina ea, rovi$e instan&es in w+i&+t+e ow$er keg o8 D+inese nationalism &oul$ e;lo$e, e5ectively forcing #artyleadershi# into a series of irrational but irreversible actions . As su&+, the

#ossibility of great$#o+er +ar, unlimited or other+ise, cannot be ruled

out. U.S. #olicyma!ers must #lan accordingly.

)urn – their argument increases the ris! of +ar – failure to ta!esecurity threats seriously causes destabiliHation, uncertainty,

and conIict.

Aoran '' X D+arles C. oran, An$rew 3. 'ellon #ro8essor o8 >nternational

Relations at Jo+ns (okins niversit5^s #aul (. NitHe &+ool o8 A$van&e$>nternational tu$ies A>F, 1999 :+e tru&tural :ur)ulan&e o8 >nternationalAMairs,* (rvival, Qolume 41, Num)er 2, ummer, . 14149F

!ne o8 t+e &+ara&teristi&s o8 8uture ma%or wars is t+at t+e5 will not ne&essaril5 looke;a&tl5 like revious wars. Dertainl5 t+e results +ave to )e t+e same in terms o8$evastation an$ loss o8 li8eW ot+erwise t+e5 &annot )e &alle$ ^wars^. But ma%or war in

8a&t ma5 not last ver5 long. >t ma5 +aen ver5 ui&kl5, an$, alt+oug+ it ma5 )ever5 intense, it ma5 not involve as man5 o8 t+e ma%or owers G t+oug+ it ro)a)l5woul$ involve some o8 t+em.

3+at is 8rig+tening a)out t+is ossi)ilit5, +owever, is t+at, as nu&lear weaonsroli8erate, ma%or wars ma5 take la&e in areas w+ere t+e5 woul$ not reviousl5+ave )een e;e&te$- t+e 'i$$le East 8or e;amle. :+ese new nu&lear owers willossess relativel5 small nu&lear 8or&es 8or some time. :+e5 will still not +ave$eterrent 8or&es aroa&+ing se&on$strike &aa)ilities . :+e oulations an$ states



in t+e region are relativel5 &on&entrate$, an$ t+ere is a +istor5 o8 surrise atta&k .'u&+ o8 t+e roli8eration is âire$^ )etween rivals, an$ it is ver5 $iO&ult 8or ot+erstates to &ontrol t+is $5nami&, eit+er in terms o8 t+e ossi)le out)reak o8 war or interms o8 t+e roli8eration ro&ess itsel8.

:+e &on&lusion, t+en, is t+at t+e ro)a)ilit5 o8 ma%or war $e&lines 8or some states,

)ut in&reases 8or ot+ers . An$ it is ver5 $iO&ult to argue t+at it +as $isaeare$ inan5 signi=&ant or relia)le or +oe8ul sense. 'oreover, a ro)lem wit+ arguing aosition t+at mig+t )e $es&ri)e$ as utoian is t+at su&+ arguments +ave oli&5imli&ations . >t is worr5ing t+at as a t+esis a)out t+e o)soles&en&e o8 ma%or war)e&omes more &omelling to more eole, in&lu$ing resuma)l5 governments, t+eten$en&5 will )e to 8orget a)out t+e un$erl5ing ro)lem, w+i&+ is not war er se,)ut se&urit5. An$ )5 negle&ting t+e un$er l5ing ro)lem o8 se&urit5, t+e ro)a)ilit5o8 war erversel5 in&reases- as governments 8ail to rovi$e t+e kin$ o8 $e8en&e an$se&urit5 ne&essar5 to maintain $eterren&e, one oens u t+e ossi)ilit5 o8 new&+allenges . >n t+is regar$ it is wort+ re&alling one o8 DlauswitH^s most imortantinsig+ts- A &onueror is alwa5s a lover o8 ea&e. (e woul$ like to make +is entr5

into our state unoose$. :+at is t+e un$erl5ing $ilemma w+en one argues t+at ama%or war is not likel5 to o&&ur an$, as a &onseuen&e, one nee$ not ne&essaril5 )eso &on&erne$ a)out rovi$ing t+e $e8en&es t+at un$erlie se&urit5 itsel8. (istor5 [en$age 14 s+ows t+at surrise t+reats emerge an$ rai$ $esta)ilising eMorts arema$e to tr5 to rovi$e t+at missing $e8en&e, an$ all o8 t+is &ontri)utes to t+e siralo8 un&ertaint5 t+at lea$s in t+e en$ to war.

35ective decision$ma!ing is !ey – even if their argument is

true, evaluating our im#act is vital to #revent conIict.

Gagan '' X onal$ Kagan, (ill+ouse #ro8essor o8 (istor5 an$ Dlassi&s at Sale

niversit5, 1999 (istor5 >s Cull !8 urrises,* (rvival, Qolume 41, Num)er 2,

ummer, . 140F

> agree t+at t+e resent moment in +istor5 rovi$es a )etter &+an&e t+an ever 8ora&+ieving a long erio$ o8 ea&e, t+at t+e $eterrent oMere$ )5 nu&lear weaonsworks towar$s t+at en$, an$ t+at t+e growt+ o8 tra$e, $emo&ra&5 an$ e&onomi&inter$een$en&e assists t+at rose&t. > $o not, +owever, )elieve t+at war iso)solete G not 5et, an5wa5. Nor $o > )elieve t+at t+e resent situation is uniue in+istor5 an5 more t+an an5 moment is. As alwa5s, t+e &+an&es 8or ea&e in t+e8uture $een$ on t+e $e&isions an$ t+e a&tions taken )5 eole an$ t+ese, asalwa5s, rovi$e no guarantee against war G even ^ma%or^ war as 'i&+ael'an$el)aum +as $e=ne$ it.

"verarching #redictions about the future of internationalrelations are usually +rong – the un#redictable nature of +ar

means that you should err on the side of caution.


niversit5, 1999 (istor5 >s Cull !8 urrises,* (rvival, Qolume 41, Num)er 2,ummer, . 142F



But > woul$ go 8urt+er an$ woul$ want to sa5 even t+at ver5 imortant &on&ession isnot suO&ient, )e&ause t+e one great trut+ o8 +istor5 is t+at t+ere is alwa5s one

other #ossibility )esi$es all t+e ones t+at 5ou imagine, no matter +ow &lever 5ouare . 3+at usuall5 +aens in +istor5 is in t+e &ategor5 &alle$ ^none o8 t+e a)ove^. >8one e;amines t+e re$i&tions ma$e in t+e area o8 international relations over t+e

&enturies, most o8 t+e time, most o8 t+e eole get it +rong G even t+e mostlearne$, e;erien&e$ an$ intelligent eole. 3it+out going into a long $issertationon &+aos t+eor5, it suO&es t+at it +as generall5 +aene$ t+at wars )reak out inla&es w+ere t+e5 were never imagined an$ o8ten 8or reasons t+at were not to

be antici#ated.

Eust because states act rationally doesnt mean theyll ma!e

good decisions – im#erfect information and intentional

misinformation #oison the decision$ma!ing #rocess.

7earsheimer '' X Jo+n J. 'ears+eimer, 3+itne5 (. +ear$son Cellow at t+e

Doun&il on Coreign Relations an$ R. 3en$ell (arrison istinguis+e$ ervi&e

#ro8essor o8 #oliti&al &ien&e at t+e niversit5 o8 D+i&ago, 1999 >s 'a%or 3ar!)solete,* reat e)ate eries )etween #ro8essor 'i&+ael 'an$el)aum an$#ro8essor Jo+n J. 'ears+eimer, #resi$er- 'r. Caree$ ]akaria, Doun&il on CoreignRelations, Ce)ruar5 2<t+, Availa)le !nline via Dolum)ia >nternational AMairs !nline at+tt-www.&iaonet.org&on8&8r10, A&&esse$ 0?21200F

:+e w+ole su)%e&t o8 rationalit5 is a 8as&inating su)%e&t. > want to em+asiHe +eret+at w+en > sa5 states )e+ave rationall5, t+at $oesn7t mean t+at t+e5 &an7t t+en goout an$ make moves t+at ro$u&e &atastro+es. :+e 8a&t o8 t+e matter is t+atstates )e+aving rationall5 o8tentimes mis&al&ulate an$ en$ u s+ooting t+emselvesin t+e 8oot. !ne ver5 imortant ase&t o8 international oliti&s is t+e 8a&t t+at w+enstates make $e&isions, not onl5 are t+e5 making t+ose $e&isions )ase$ on imer8e&tin8ormation, )ut in man5 &ases t+e5 are $ealing wit+ ot+er states t+at are going to&onsi$era)le lengt+s to 8ool t+em , to &on8use t+em, to rovi$e t+em wit+in8ormation t+at is in&orre&t misin8ormation. Be&ause 5ou7re working wit+ imer8e&tin8ormation an$ )e&ause 5ou7re o8tentimes )eing &on8use$ )5 t+e a$versar5, 5ouo8ten times goo8 in a )ig wa5 . > woul$ make t+e argument %ust to +ig+lig+t t+atw+en (itler $e&i$e$ to inva$e t+e oviet nion in June 1941 , alt+oug+ it 8ortunatel5en$e$ u wit+ +im s+ooting +imsel8 in a )unker in Berlin in Aril 194<, w+en +ewent into t+e oviet nion, in m5 oinion, it was t+e result o8 a relativel5 rational$e&isionmaking ro&ess. :+e5 %ust mis&al&ulate$W t+e5 %ust guesse$ wrong .



/NC Dar ossible)he #robability of maor +ar is not Hero – future +ars +ill be

more savage.

Aoran '' X D+arles C. oran, An$rew 3. 'ellon #ro8essor o8 >nternational

Relations at Jo+ns (okins niversit5^s #aul (. NitHe &+ool o8 A$van&e$>nternational tu$ies A>F, 1999 :+e tru&tural :ur)ulan&e o8 >nternationalAMairs,* (rvival, Qolume 41, Num)er 2, ummer, . 14/14LF

:+e =rst reason 8or $ou)ting t+e realit5 o8 t+is revolution &on&erns t+e trage$5 o8+istor5. #us+ing t+e anal5sis )a&k to )e8ore w+at is sometimes $es&ri)e$ as t+eorigin o8 t+e mo$ern state s5stem, t+ere are at least =ve ma%or wars to &onsi$er,)eginning wit+ t+e :+irt5 Sear^s 3ar, t+en t+e wars o8 ouis _>Q, t+e Naoleoni&3ars an$ t+e twentiet+ &entur5^s two worl$ wars. :+e trage$5 is t+at =ve o8 t+eseerio$s in 8a&t tolerate$ wars t+at were trul5 massive. :+e :+irt5 Sear^s 3ar was notonl5 long )ut enormousl5 $estru&tive. >n t+e erman rin&ialities, 8or e;amle, itentaile$ t+e $eat+ o8 at least one o8 ever5 t+ree in+a)itants. #arts o8 Bo+emia $i$not re&over t+eir relative ositions in terms o8 e&onomi& $eveloment until t+etwentiet+ &entur5.

:+e origins o8 t+ese wars were &learl5 in t+e &+anging stru&ture o8 t+eir rese&tiveinternational s5stems. :+ese were erio$s w+en t+e ti$es o8 +istor5, t+e relativeower tra%e&tories o8 states in t+e s5stem, &+ange$ in a rai$ an$ unre$i&ta)lewa5. overnments &oul$ not ea&e8ull5 a$%ust to t+is rai$ [en$ age 14/stru&tural &+ange. :+e en$ o8 t+e Dol$ 3ar is t+e =rst time t+at a trul5 ea&e8ultrans8ormation o8 t+e s5stem +as ever o&&urre$ . !ne t+ing is &ertain- t+e un$erl5ingtrans8ormation o8 t+e stru&ture o8 t+e international s5stem will &ontinue. :+ere will)e ot+er %un&tures %ust as stress8ul 8or t+e international s5stem as t+ose in t+e ast.

o, an5 &ase 8or t+e o)soles&en&e o8 ma%or war must )e 8oun$ in t+e novelt5 o8 t+eresonse to t+is trans8ormation, an$ in &omelling evi$en&e t+at t+e wa5 o8reson$ing +as &+ange$ ermanentl5.

'i&+ael 'an$el)aum is rig+t to i$enti85 two interrelate$ tren$s o8 war8are. !n t+eone si$e t+ere is a &lear re$u&tion in t+e ro)a)ilit5 o8 ma%or war, largel5 )e&auset+e &osts +ave in&rease$ to su&+ a $egreeW on t+e ot+er si$e t+ere is a &lear,enormous in&rease in t+e $estru&tive otential o8 ma%or war. But 'an$el)aum is less&onvin&ing in +is interretation o8 w+at t+is means. Be&ause even t+oug+ t+ere +as)een a $e&line in t+e ro)a)ilit5 o8 war, in&lu$ing, er+as, ma%or war, t+ero)a)ilit5 is still ver5 mu&+ greater than Hero . Set, t+e onl5 wa5 5ou &oul$ reall5argue 8or t+e o)soles&en&e o8 ma%or war woul$ )e to sa5 t+at t+e ro)a)ilit5 isvirtuall5 Hero.

'ankin$ ma5 +ave likewise learne$ to manage some kin$s o8 8or&e more ru$entl5.Among mature $emo&rati& states, t+e in&i$en&e o8 war +as surel5 $e&rease$. But att+e same time, war8are )etween $emo&ra&ies an$ non$emo&ra&ies +as not$e&rease$ at all . :+e magnitu$e o8 su&+ wars ma5 a&tuall5 +ave in&rease$ sin&e, 8orreasons o8 mass mo)ilisation an$ i$eolog5, $emo&ra&ies ten$ to =g+t wars ^to en$all war^ G t+at is to sa5, savagel5.



Bes Dar, 6ecent ConIicts ma!e it inevitable

Galets!y, 1>, J ntole, corres#ondent for 7aritime 34ecutive, &9/191>,

htt#=99+++.maritime$e4ecutive.com9article9First$Dar$Das$-m#ossible$)hen$-nevitable$/01>$0&$/KF

3+5 $oes t+e assassination o8 Ar&+$uke CranH Cer$inan$ X t+e event t+at lit t+e 8use o8 3orl$ 3ar!ne 100 5ears ago atur$a5 still resonate so ower8ull5 Qirtuall5 no)o$5 )elieves 3orl$ 3ar :+ree

will )e triggere$ )5 re&ent t+e militar5 &on@i&ts in kraine, >ra or t+e D+ina seas, 5et man5 8a&tors

to$a5 mirror t+ose t+at le$ to t+e &atastro+e in ara%evo on June 2, 1914. :+e a&e o8 glo)aliHation

was almost as $ramati& an$ &on8using in 1914 as it is to$a5. Cear o8 ran$om terrorism was also

wi$esrea$. :+e )la&k+atte$ anar&+ist &lut&+ing a =HHing )om) was a &artoon &li&+ t+en %ust as t+e

>slami& %i+a$ist is to$a5 . Set t+e &ru&ial arallel ma5 )e t+e com#lacent certainty thateconomic interde#endence and #ros#erity had made +ar inconceivable, at

least in Euroe. A 1910 )estselling )ook, :+e reat >llusion, use$ e&onomi& arguments to $emonstrate

t+at territorial &onuest +a$ )e&ome unro=ta)le, an$ t+ere8ore glo)al &aitalism +a$ remove$ t+e

risk o8 ma%or wars. :+is view, )roa$l5 analogous to t+e mo$ern 8a&toi$ t+at t+ere +as never )een a war

)etween two &ountries wit+ a 'a&onal$7s outlet, )e&ame so well esta)lis+e$ t+at, less t+an a 5ear

)e8ore t+e reat 3ar )roke out, t+e E&onomist reassure$ its rea$ers wit+ an e$itorial title$ 3ar

Be&omes >mossi)le in DiviliHe$ 3orl$.* :+e ower8ul )on$s o8 &ommer&ial interest )etween

ourselves an$ erman5,* t+e E&onomist insiste$, +ave )een immensel5 strengt+ene$ in re&ent 5ears

d removing erman5 8rom t+e list o8 our ossi)le 8oes.* :+e real reat >llusion,* o8 &ourse, turne$ out

to )e t+e i$ea t+at e&onomi& sel8interest ma$e wars o)solete. Set a variant o8 t+is naPve materialism

+as returne$. >t un$erlies, 8or e;amle, t+e 3estern 8oreign oli&5 t+at resents e&onomi& san&tions on

Russia or >ran as a su)stitute 8or oliti&al &omromise or militar5 intervention . :+e trut+, as t+e worl$

$is&overe$ in 1914 an$ is re$is&overing to$a5 in kraine, t+e 'i$$le East an$ t+e D+ina seas, is t+at

e&onomi& interests are swet asi$e on&e t+e genie o8 nationalist or religious militarism is release$.

Russia +as in ast &on@i&ts wit+stoo$ e&onomi& losses unimagina)le to oliti&ians an$ $ilomats in t+e

3estern worl$, an$ t+e same is true o8 >ran an$ D+ina. :+us t+e .. strateg5 o8 es&alating e&onomi&

&osts* &annot )e e;e&te$ to a&+ieve ma%or geooliti&al o)%e&tives, su&+ as reserving kraine7s)or$ers or Jaan7s unin+a)ite$ islan$s. 3ither territory must be o#en to renegotiationor the Dest must be #re#ared to *ght to #rotect the sanctity of borders ,

w+i&+ s+ows t+e reall5 unsettling arallels wit+ t+e worl$ o8 1914. :+oug+ +istorians &ontinue to

$e)ate 3orl$ 3ar !ne7s ro;imate &auses, two ke5 $esta)iliHing 8eatures o8 earl5 20t+&entur5

geooliti&s &reate$ t+e ne&essar5 &on$itions 8or t+e su$$en siral into all&onsuming &on@i&t- t+e rise

an$ 8all o8 great owers, an$ t+e overHealous o)servan&e o8 mutual$e8ense treaties. :+ese 8eatures

are now returning to $esta)iliHe geooliti&s a &entur5 later.

Nuclear #roliferation ma!es +ar #ossible – other countriesdont care about 7A

Freedberg 1< 5$ne5 J. Cree$)erg Jr., t+e $eut5 e$itor 8or Breaking e8ense

an$ won awar$s 8rom t+e asso&iation o8 'ilitar5 Reorters U E$itors, No ongernt+inka)le- +oul$ Rea$5 Cor 6imite$7 Nu&lear 3ar* Breaking e8ense, <?0201?, +tt-)reaking$e8ense.&om201?0<nolongerunt+inka)les+oul$usrea$58orlimite$nu&learwar2, a&&esse$ L114F

http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/First-War-Was-Impossible-Then-Inevitable-2014-06-27






Cor more t+an /0 5ears, most Ameri&ans +ave t+oug+t o8 nu&lear weaons as an allornot+ing game. :+e onl5 wa5 to win is not to la5 at all, we )elieve$, )e&ause an5use o8 nukes will lea$ to Armage$$on. :+at ma5 no longer )e t+e game ouroosition is la5ing. As nu&lear weaons roli8erate to la&es t+at mig+t not s+areour relu&tan&e to use t+em in small num)ers, +owever, t+e militar5 ma5 8a&e a

se&on$ nu&lear age* o8 retail Armage$$on 8or w+i&+ it is utterl5 unreare$.

!utsi$e t+e , )ot+ esta)lis+e$ an$ emerging nu&lear owers in&reasingl5 seenu&lear weaons as weaons t+at &an )e use$ in a &ontrolle$, limite$, an$strategi&all5 use8ul 8as+ion, sai$ Barr5 3atts, an anal5st wit+ t+e Denter 8ortrategi& an$ Bu$getar5 Assessments, argua)l5 t+e #entagon7s 8avorite t+inktank.

:+e Dol$ 3ar =re)reaks* )etween &onventional an$ nu&lear &on@i&t are )reaking$own, +e wrote in a re&ent reort. Russia +as not onl5 $eveloe$ new, relativel5low5iel$ ta&ti&al nukes )ut also routinel5 wargame$ t+eir use to sto )ot+ NA:!an$ D+inese &onventional 8or&es s+oul$ t+e5 overrun 'os&ow7s 8ee)le ostovietmilitar5, 3atts sai$ t+is morning at t+e +ea$uarters o8 t+e Air Cor&e Asso&iation.#akistan is likewise $eveloing ta&ti&al nukes to sto >n$ia7s mu&+ larger militar5.>ran seeks nu&lear weaons not onl5 to oMset >srael7s )ut to $eter an$, in t+e lastresort, 8en$ oM an Ameri&an attemt to er8orm regime &+ange* in :e+ran t+e wa5we $i$ in Bag+$a$. :+e Air Cor&e an$ Nav5 &on&et o8 Airea Battle* in t+e3estern #a&i=& &oul$ entail strikes on t+e D+inese mainlan$ t+at mig+t rovoke anu&lear resonse. >t7s re&isel5 )e&ause &onventional ower is so overw+elmingt+at t+e temtation to turn to nu&lear weaons to re$ress t+e )alan&e is soirresisti)le. :en 5ears ago, t+e >rais si$estee$ Ameri&an $ominan&e in t+e mi$$leo8 t+e se&trum o8 &on@i&t G regular war8are wit+ tanks, lanes, an$ re&isiongui$e$ nonnu&lear weaons G )5 going low an$ waging guerrilla war8are, 8or w+i&+t+e rove$ ain8ull5 unreare$. >n t+e 8uture, nu&lear roli8eration means morean$ more &ountries will +ave t+e otion to si$este &onventional ower )5 going+ig+ an$ staging a limite$* nu&lear atta&k, 8or w+i&+ we aren7t reall5 reare$eit+er. >n$ee$, some &ountries, nota)l5 a nu&lear >ran wit+ its terrorist ro;ies an$Nort+ Korea wit+ its &riminal ties an$ se&ial oerations 8or&es, &oul$ out@ankAmeri&a7s &onventional militar5 8rom )ot+ si$es at on&e.



/NC Bes Dar in SCS6a#idly increasing tension in the South China Sea echo the

:ulf of )on!in #rior to the Xietnam Dar. Naval tensions high

amongst ne+ Chinese naval develo#ments.

3uta+, &9/2+tt-www.wallstreet$ail5.&om20140/2<&+inaoilrigs :+e newest )ull5 on t+e )lo&k D+ina*D+risto+er Eutaw, e$itorin&+ie8 8or oliti&s 8or t+e 3all treet ail5 wit+ 5ears o8 e;erien&e inreorting an5t+ing oliti&alF

atel5, t+e news +as )een o)sesse$ wit+ two toi&s- >ra an$ t+e Russiakraine =as&o.

>n 8a&t, we7re even guilt5 o8 it +ere, too. But in t+e mi$st o8 t+is me$ia )arrage, anot+er imortant

stor5 %ust a)out slie$ t+roug+ t+e &ra&ksd even t+oug+ it +as imli&ations %ust as ower8ul as t+e stories

getting more air time. Sou see, w+ile >> +as )een &onuering >ra an$ 'os&ow +as )een

)ull5ing Kiev, D+ina +as )een uietl5 @e;ing its mus&le in t+e out+ D+ina ea. e&i=&all5, t+e D+inese +ave )een

moving oil rigs into $isute$ territories an$ $rilling 8or oild all w+ile ignoring t+e

rotests o8 t+e surroun$ing nations. An$ &onsi$ering t+at a minor skirmis+ in t+e

ul8 o8 :onkin laun&+e$ t+e Qietnam 3ar, &oul$ D+ina7s aggression ossi)l5 sark a

new 3orl$ 3ar Neig+)oring &ountries su&+ as Qietnam an$ t+e #+iliines +ave

&ite$ a 2002 a&&or$ )etween t+e Asso&iation o8 out+east Asian Nations AEANF

an$ D+ina t+at &reate$ a non)in$ing &o$e o8 &on$u&t, in or$er to &onsoli$ate an$ $evelo t+e 8rien$s+i an$ &ooeration

e;isting )etween t+eir eole an$ governments wit+ t+e view to romoting a 21st &entur5oriente$ artners+i o8 goo$ neig+)ors

an$ mutual trust.* But D+ina7s aggressive moves $ire&tl5 violate t+e sirit o8 t+at &o$e, even i8

it was non)in$ing. >n 8a&t, t+e D+inese announ&e$ last Cri$a5 t+at t+e5 woul$ )e moving a

se&on$ rig near Qietnam7s &oastline, even t+oug+ t+e two &ountries +ave 5et to

resolve a $isute over t+e =rst rig t+at D+ina move$ into territor5 t+at Qietnam &alls

its own. :+e $isute +as sarke$ $ea$l5 riots in Qietnam G wit+ rotestors targetingD+inese 8a&tories G an$ +as also &reate$ immense 8ri&tion )etween t+e D+inese an$

Qietnamese navies. (owever, wit+ D+ina7s &lear militar5 an$ e&onomi& a$vantage, it7s $ou)t8ul t+at Qietnam &oul$ 8or&e

D+ina to move its rig. 'eanw+ile, most anal5sts )elieve t+at D+ina7s aim is not %ust Qietnam7s

territor5, )ut in 8a&t t+e ma%orit5 o8 t+e out+ D+ina ea, a resour&eri&+ area t+at $he Ne 3or

$imes &alls a vital waterwa5 8or international &ommer&e.* >n re&ent 5ears, D+ina +as )een )olstering its nav5

in +oes o8 )e&oming a maritime suer ower, an$ t+e &ountr5 now +as t+ree @eets, a &lass o8 nu&lear

su)marines, an$ one air&ra8t &arrier. >n lig+t o8 t+at in8ormation, t+e timing o8 D+ina7s

aggressive e;ansion in t+e region is ro)a)l5 not a &oin&i$en&e. Between its

new8oun$ e&onomi& roserit5 an$ its )u$$ing militar5, D+ina sees an oortunit5

to outmus&le t+e mu&+ smaller &ountries t+at also s+are a )or$er along t+e out+D+ina ea . .. e8ense e&retar5, D+u&k (agel, sai$ t+at D+ina +as &alle$ t+e out+ D+ina ea 6a sea o8 ea&e,

8rien$s+i an$ &ooeration,7 an$ t+at7s w+at it s+oul$ )e. But in re&ent mont+s, D+ina +as un$ertaken $esta)iliHing, unilateral

a&tions asserting its &laims in t+e out+ D+ina ea.* >n 8a&t, t+e &ountr5 +as )een +ar$ at work moving san$ an$ ro&k

into t+e ratl5 ar&+ielago G anot+er &onteste$ region in t+e waterwa5 G to &reate small islan$s on t+e s+oals t+at

&oul$ suort militar5 installations an$ surveillan&e euiment. :+at +as &ause$ se&ulation

t+at D+ina ma5, in 8a&t, want to 8or&e t+e .. nav5 out o8 t+e out+ #a&i=&, a region it +as

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/06/25/china-oil-rigs/

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/06/25/china-oil-rigs/



$ominate$ sin&e 3orl$ 3ar >>. At t+is oint, it7s +ar$ to tell w+at D+ina7s en$ goal is. Cor t+e moment, it7s )us5 ositioning oil rigs

an$ sear&+ing 8or valua)le resour&es. But t+e $eveloments in t+e out+ D+ina ea are $u)ious, at )est, an$ !)ama must

)e wat&+8ul going 8orwar$ .



/NC ) Aemocracy solves +ar)he march of democracy is not inevitable – history #roves.


niversit5, 1999 (istor5 >s Cull !8 urrises,* (rvival, Qolume 41, Num)er 2,

ummer, . 142F :+e same unre$i&ta)ilit5 alies to ot+er asso&iate$ +istori&al tren$s- $emo&ra&5,8or e;amle. 3+en it was invente$ in ree&e aroun$ <00BD, $emo&ra&5 reall5looke$ like t+e 8uture. At+enian ower )e&ame great an$ At+ens )e&ame anattra&tive mo$el. An$ a num)er o8 reek states G &ertainl5 not t+e ma%orit5, )ut agreat man5 G )e&ame $emo&ra&ies. >8 one live$, sa5, in 4<0 or even in 440BD, onemig+t ver5 well +ave ma$e w+at woul$ +ave )een an intelligent re$i&tion- t+at$emo&ra&5 was t+e roa$ o8 t+e 8uture.

:+en t+e At+enians lost t+e #eloonnesian 3ar, an$ $emo&ra&5 stoe$. :+at wast+e en$ o8 $emo&ra&5 until t+e Ameri&an Revolution. >t is wort+w+ile remem)ering,

t+ere8ore, t+at great +istori&al reversals &an +aen. > $on^t argue t+at a&omara)le reversal will +aen, an$ it woul$ )e a trage$5 i8 it $i$, )ut we +ave to)e alert to t+e ossi)ilit5. Rig+t now $emo&rati& s5stems +ave a great $eal o8aeal, artl5 on t+eir own merits, )ut artl5 )e&ause t+e5 seem to )e winning. An$winning s5stems look great. But i8 5ou &onsi$er Euroe in 1940, an$ ask 5oursel8w+at eole t+oug+t t+e 8uture was in t+ose $a5s, t+e answer ro)a)l5 woul$ not+ave )een $emo&ra&5. :+en t+e ermans lost t+e war, an$ t+e 8uture looke$$iMerent.



Counter#lans



ustralia C



1NC C)e4t= )he Common+ealth of ustralia should \-NS36) PN

)3Q)].

ustralia most reliable for oceans

Figgis, #. U Goss R. E$sF. 201/F. Donserving Australia7s 'arine Environment-Ke5 ire&tions tatement. Australian Dommittee 8or >DN, 5$ne5DonservingAustralia7s 'arine EnvironmentW +tt-a&iu&n.org.auw&ontentuloa$s201?0'arineVtatementV3e).$8

Australia is a uniue &ontinent surroun$e$ )5 a vast o&ean territor5 &ontaining)iologi&all5 $iverse e&os5stems reliant on marine ro&esses an$ intera&tions wit+t+e &oastal environment. Australia7s marine %uris$i&tion is t+e t+ir$ largest on t+islanet, wit+ our o&ean territor5 larger t+an t+e siHe o8 our lan$ . Domle; s5stems o8&urrents an$ $iverse un$erwater seas&aes stret&+ 8rom t+e nort+7s warm troi&alwaters to t+e &ool waters in t+e sout+ in@uen&e$ )5 t+e out+ern !&ean. 3e +ave t+e

largest single &oral ree8 s5stem an$ t+e t+ir$ largest mangrove area, wit+ over +al8 o8 t+e worl$7s mangrove

se&ies an$ more t+an +al8 o8 t+e worl$7s seagrass se&ies. out+ern Australian marine s5stems are&+ara&terise$ )5 +ig+ levels o8 $iversit5 an$ ver5 +ig+ en$emism most se&ies in

t+e region are 8oun$ now+ere else on t+e lanet. :+ese s5stems in turn suort 8urt+er

outstan$ing marine se&ies )io$iversit5 in&lu$ing 4000 =s+ se&ies 20Z o8 t+e worl$7s total si; o8 t+e worl$7s

seven marine turtles an$ 4< o8 t+e known se&ies o8 w+ales, $ol+ins an$ oroises. Australians an$ t+emarine environment Australians +ave a se&ial )on$ wit+ t+eir marineenvironment. 'an5 Australian >n$igenous &ommunities +ave ro8oun$ relian&e on an$ resonsi)ilit5 8or t+eir

ea Dountr5 w+i&+ rovi$es siritual, &ultural, so&ial an$ liveli+oo$ )ene=ts to &ommunities. 3it+ more t+an<Z o8 t+e Australian oulation living wit+in <0 kilometers o8 a &oastline 6t+e )ea&+7 is trul5 a uniting i&on o8most Australians. Bea&+es, )a5s, estuaries rovi$es sa&es 8or re&reation, rela;ation an$ &onne&tions wit+ naturewit+ strong &ultural, so&ial an$ +eritage )ene=ts. 'arine wil$li8e is in&reasingl5 a sour&e o8 8as&ination an$ a ke5tourism resour&e as eole revel in t+e )eaut5 o8 &oral ree8s an$ in t+e sig+t o8 w+ales, $ol+ins, s+arks an$

turtles. As a result, t+e marine environment is intrinsi& to t+e +ealt+ an$ well)eing o8 all Australians. As Australia7s oulation grows, it will )e&ome in&reasingl5 reliant ont+e li8esuort servi&es an$ asso&iate$ +ealt+ an$ well)eing )ene=ts sulie$ )5our marine environment.



/NC Solvencyustralia !ey to international coo#eration

Figgis, #. U Goss R. E$sF. 201/F. Donserving Australia7s 'arine Environment-

Ke5 ire&tions tatement. Australian Dommittee 8or >DN, 5$ne5Donserving

Australia7s 'arine EnvironmentW +tt-a&iu&n.org.auw&ontentuloa$s201?0'arineVtatementV3e).$8

:+e Australian government +as re&ognise$ t+e imortan&e o8 engaging in marine&onservation at t+e regional an$ international level. :o t+is en$ it suortsinternational &onventions su&+ as t+e Donvention on Biologi&al iversit5, t+eDonvention on t+e Donservation o8 'igrator5 e&ies o8 3il$ Animals an$ t+eDonvention 8or t+e Donservation o8 Antar&ti& 'arine iving Resour&es an$ makesreresentation at &on8eren&es su&+ as t+e re&ent 2012 nite$ NationsDon8eren&e on ustaina)le eveloment Rio20F. :+is suort e;ten$s to

international marine &olla)orations via regional agreements, rograms an$summits in&lu$ing- t+e nite$ Nations Environment #rogram, t+e 3orl$ Banklo)al #artners+i 8or !&eans, t+e Doral :riangle >nitiative, t+e East Asia ummit,an$ t+e e&retariat o8 t+e #a&i=& Regional Environment #rogram #a&i=&!&eans&ae rogram.

3m#irics #rove$ ustralia solves 7s better


Ke5 ire&tions tatement. Australian Dommittee 8or >DN, 5$ne5DonservingAustralia7s 'arine EnvironmentW +tt-a&iu&n.org.auw

&ontentuloa$s201?0'arineVtatementV3e).$8

Australia7s marine environment is in relativel5 goo$ &on$ition &omare$ wit+ man5ot+er nations. !ne o8 our aims as a nation s+oul$ )e to maintain t+is state an$ ensure t+at t+e $eterioration seen in t+e Australia7s lan$ an$ 8res+water s5stems

sin&e Euroean settlement is not reeate$ in our o&eans. Avoi$ing $eterioration o8 our marine environment is asigni=&ant &+allenge in lig+t o8 t+e s+i8ts in natural s5stems &ause$ )5 +umanin$u&e$ &limate &+ange. :o 8a&e t+is &+allenge, it is essential t+at t+e tra%e&tor5 o8&onservation is 8orwar$ towar$s in&rease$ rote&tion, e&ologi&all5 sustaina)leuse o8 resour&es an$ mu&+ )etter management o8 t+reatening ro&esses. No s&ienti=&

assessment woul$ suort regression. 3e s+oul$ also move )e5on$ an5 notion o8 Australia7s marine

environment as siml5 rote&ting $is&rete areas w+ile t+e larger marineenvironment is le8t unrote&te$. :+is will not )e suO&ient 8or its long term&onservation. Rat+er, our vision s+oul$ )e all en&omassing &onservation an$e&ologi&all5 sustaina)le use a&ross t+e entire Australian marine environment. Cort+is vision to )e met, Australia nee$s to re@e&t t+e &+allenges an$ a&tions outline$ in t+is

tatement wit+in t+e nation7s oli&5, lanning an$ $e&isionmaking ro&esse$a&ross all %uris$i&tions an$ ort8olios.



ustralia is !ey to leading environmental ocean #olicies


Ke5 ire&tions tatement. Australian Dommittee 8or >DN, 5$ne5DonservingAustralia7s 'arine EnvironmentW +tt-a&iu&n.org.auw&ontentuloa$s201?0'arineVtatementV3e).$8

Be5on$ our territorial waters an$ EE] Australia +as ma$e international &ommitments an$&ontri)utions to marine &onservation t+roug+ signing on to international&onventions, engaging in international marine oli&5 t+roug+ &on8eren&es su&+ as Rio20 an$ t+e

Donvention on Biologi&al iversit5 DBF as well as &olla)orating in regional agreements, rograms an$ summits su&+ as t+e Doral

:riangle >nitiative. :+e Australian overnment also uses su&+ international oli&ies togui$e its national marine agen$a, nota)l5 wit+ t+e re&ent esta)lis+ment o8 t+eNR'#A. Australia7s lea$ers+i in marine &onservation must &ontinue to gui$e)estra&ti&e marine oli&5. :+is is vitall5 imortant to t+e glo)al eMorts to restoret+e eart+7s largest e&os5stem )ut also ver5 imortant to our regional oli&ies. 'ost o8 Australia7s near neig+)ours

are nations reliant on t+eir marine)ase$ liveli+oo$s. :+e 8ollowing are se&i=& international riorit5 a&tions t+at s+oul$ )e taken

)5 t+e Australian overnment- suort t+e lo)al !&ean Dommission in 8ormulating eMe&tive glo)al marine &onservation

measures. en+an&e t+e sustaina)ilit5 o8 &ommer&ial =s+eries )5- o &ontri)uting to agreater glo)al &ommitment to re$u&e =s+er5 &aa&ities wit+in t+e o&eans to avoi$over=s+ing. o taking a stronger an$ )roa$er aroa&+ to a$$ress issues o8 illegal,unreorte$ an$ unregulate$ >F =s+ing in&lu$ing international &olla)oration t+roug+ relevant

&onventions an$ agreements. rote&t t+e (ig+ eas )5 reaOrming t+e &ommitment toesta)lis+ an imlementing agreement 8or t+e nite$ Nations Donvention on t+e aw o8 t+e ea

as a me&+anism 8or +ig+ seas governan&e in areas )e5on$ national %uris$i&tion su&+ as esta)lis+ing +ig+ seas '#As an$in&reasing &omlian&e o8 Regional Cis+eries 'anagement !rganisations ND, 2012F. meet t+e &+allenge o8 $eesea mining)5- o suorting t+e esta)lis+ment o8 a glo)al moratorium t+at )ans $eesea mining &onsistent wit+ t+e re&autionar5aroa&+ in t+e a)sen&e o8 a &urrent un$erstan$ing o8 t+e environmental imli&ations o8 su&+ mining. o suorting in&rease$riorit5 )eing given to maing )io$iversit5 values rior to e;loration o8 t+e sea)e$. o in&reasing &ommuni&ation wit+ t+e>nternational ea)e$ Aut+orit5. em)ra&e an$ en&ourage a )roa$er a$otion o8 t+e e&os5stem)ase$ marine management

aroa&+ o8 t+e Antar&ti& :reat5 5stem as a me&+anism to s+i8t awa5 8rom se&tor)ase$ management. :+is aroa&+reuires s&ien&e)ase$ er8orman&e stan$ar$s 8or rote&tion o8 e&ologi&al s5stemsan$ 8or monitoring. 8ormall5 integrate )lue &ar)on an$ &oastal e&os5stems intogui$elines o8 t+e Doastal Resilien&e #rogram 8or AusA> in relation to &limate&+ange a$atation an$ mitigation. en+an&e integrate$ )ioregional marine lanning )5- o working to

imrove integrate$ )ioregional marine lanning wit+ our international neig+)ors in&lu$ing >n$onesia, :imor este an$ #aua Newuinea to a$$ress trans)oun$ar5 issues in s+are$ s+allow waters t+at &ontain near ristine, troi&al e&os5stems. o a&&essing

an$ using Australia7s lea$ing marine s&ien&e e;ertise an$ t+e e;ertise an$interests o8 ke5 marine stake+ol$ers, to in8orm eMe&tive an$ +olisti& internationalmarine oli&5 $eveloment an$ lanning.



) ermserm fails= ustralia is !ey to leading environmental ocean

#olicies$ urisdiction !ey


Ke5 ire&tions tatement. Australian Dommittee 8or >DN, 5$ne5DonservingAustralia7s 'arine EnvironmentW +tt-a&iu&n.org.auw&ontentuloa$s201?0'arineVtatementV3e).$8

Be5on$ our territorial waters an$ EE] Australia +as ma$e international &ommitments an$&ontri)utions to marine &onservation t+roug+ signing on to international&onventions, engaging in international marine oli&5 t+roug+ &on8eren&es su&+ as Rio20 an$ t+e

Donvention on Biologi&al iversit5 DBF as well as &olla)orating in regional agreements, rograms an$ summits su&+ as t+e Doral

:riangle >nitiative. :+e Australian overnment also uses su&+ international oli&ies togui$e its national marine agen$a, nota)l5 wit+ t+e re&ent esta)lis+ment o8 t+e

NR'#A.

Australia7s lea$ers+i in marine &onservation must &ontinue to gui$e)estra&ti&e marine oli&5. :+is is vitall5 imortant to t+e glo)al eMorts to restoret+e eart+7s largest e&os5stem )ut also ver5 imortant to our regional oli&ies. 'ost o8 Australia7s near neig+)ours

are nations reliant on t+eir marine)ase$ liveli+oo$s. :+e 8ollowing are se&i=& international riorit5 a&tions t+at s+oul$ )e taken)5 t+e Australian overnment- suort t+e lo)al !&ean Dommission in 8ormulating eMe&tive glo)al marine &onservation

measures. en+an&e t+e sustaina)ilit5 o8 &ommer&ial =s+eries )5- o &ontri)uting to agreater glo)al &ommitment to re$u&e =s+er5 &aa&ities wit+in t+e o&eans to avoi$over=s+ing. o taking a stronger an$ )roa$er aroa&+ to a$$ress issues o8 illegal,unreorte$ an$ unregulate$ >F =s+ing in&lu$ing international &olla)oration t+roug+ relevant

&onventions an$ agreements. rote&t t+e (ig+ eas )5 reaOrming t+e &ommitment toesta)lis+ an imlementing agreement 8or t+e nite$ Nations Donvention on t+e aw o8 t+e ea

as a me&+anism 8or +ig+ seas governan&e in areas )e5on$ national %uris$i&tion su&+ as esta)lis+ing +ig+ seas '#As an$in&reasing &omlian&e o8 Regional Cis+eries 'anagement !rganisations ND, 2012F. meet t+e &+allenge o8 $eesea mining

)5- o suorting t+e esta)lis+ment o8 a glo)al moratorium t+at )ans $eesea mining &onsistent wit+ t+e re&autionar5aroa&+ in t+e a)sen&e o8 a &urrent un$erstan$ing o8 t+e environmental imli&ations o8 su&+ mining. o suorting in&rease$riorit5 )eing given to maing )io$iversit5 values rior to e;loration o8 t+e sea)e$. o in&reasing &ommuni&ation wit+ t+e>nternational ea)e$ Aut+orit5. em)ra&e an$ en&ourage a )roa$er a$otion o8 t+e e&os5stem)ase$ marine management

aroa&+ o8 t+e Antar&ti& :reat5 5stem as a me&+anism to s+i8t awa5 8rom se&tor)ase$ management. :+is aroa&+reuires s&ien&e)ase$ er8orman&e stan$ar$s 8or rote&tion o8 e&ologi&al s5stemsan$ 8or monitoring. 8ormall5 integrate )lue &ar)on an$ &oastal e&os5stems intogui$elines o8 t+e Doastal Resilien&e #rogram 8or AusA> in relation to &limate&+ange a$atation an$ mitigation. en+an&e integrate$ )ioregional marine lanning )5- o working to

imrove integrate$ )ioregional marine lanning wit+ our international neig+)ors in&lu$ing >n$onesia, :imor este an$ #aua Newuinea to a$$ress trans)oun$ar5 issues in s+are$ s+allow waters t+at &ontain near ristine, troi&al e&os5stems. o a&&essing

an$ using Australia7s lea$ing marine s&ien&e e;ertise an$ t+e e;ertise an$interests o8 ke5 marine stake+ol$ers, to in8orm eMe&tive an$ +olisti& international

marine oli&5 $eveloment an$ lanning.

erm Fails= ustralian hots#ots are !ey, U.S does not have the

urisdiction to im#lement reserves



erm fails= ustralian leadershi# !ey to international

coo#eration. U.S is not a#art of already determined

committees



China C





Solvency CardChina solves – they have the enforcement, government

frame+or!, and e4#erience to establish 7arine reserves

Aang, rofessor at Schulich School of Pa+, 1> [Qu (ai, 21/14,

'arine #rote&te$ Areas Network in t+e out+ D+ina ea, i)rar5 o8 Dongress,+tt-)ooks.google.&om)ooksi$Ti122AgAAYBAJUgT#A1//UlgT#A1//U$T&+inamarinereservesUsour&eT)lUotsTB!CE_#V'vUsigTEQ9CQgve<#35%?rnKEvV?s5KU+lTenUsaT_UeiTo#?/VV4_'sYV4(ggUve$T0D0Y/AEwDAqvToneageUT&+inaZ20marineZ20reservesU8T8alse, a&&esse$ L<14

:+e tan$ar$s on DategoriHing 'arine Nature Reserves, a$ote$ )5 t+e tate!&eani& A$ministration in 199, $e=ne )asi& rin&iles 8or &lassi85ing marine naturereserves in D+ina.* A&&or$ing to t+ese tan$ar$s, marine nature reserves are&lassi=e$ a&&or$ing to 8un&tional &ategories or imortan&e level. 'arine naturereserves &an also )e $ivi$e$ into national, rovin&ial, re8e&tural an$ &ount5levels, $een$ing on, inter alla. 3+et+er an area +as an international, national, orlo&al signi=&an&e7 A s5stem o8 oint attri)ution was also set u to $etermine w+i&+level a marine nature reserve woul$ )elong to. Besi$es, se&i=& t5es o8 marinenature reserves &oul$ )e a$ote$ )5 $iMerent government aut+orities wit+in t+eirs&oe o8 aut+orit5 , su&+ as t+e nature reserve 8or t+e rote&tion o8 auati& animalsan$ lants,?9 nature reserves 8or t+e rote&tion o8 8orests an$ otentiall5 naturereserves 8or t+e rote&tion o8 &oastal wetlan$s un$er t+e $eveloing wetlan$srote&tion regulations. e&ial 'arine Reserves are regulate$ )5 t+e 'easures 8ort+e A$ministration o8 e&ial 'arine Reserves, a$ote$ )5 t+e tate !&eani&A$ministration in 2010. Base$ on t+e geogra+i&al lo&ation, resour&es,environmental &on$itions, t+e status o8 e;loitation o8 marine resour&es an$ so&io

e&onomi& $eveloment nee$s, t+e se&ial marine reserve &an )e &lassi=e$ as amarine se&ial geogra+i&al &on$itions reserve, marine e&ologi&al reserve,national ark, natural monument, +a)itat, se&ies management area, rote&te$lan$s&aeseas&ae, manage$ resour&e area an$ ot+er t5es o8 areas. e&ialmarine reserves are also $esignate$ at national an$ lo&al levels. nlike marinereserves w+i&+ use a Hone)ase$ aroa&+ 8or e;loitation management, marinese&ial reserves use an a&tivit5)ase$ aroa&+. Dertain a&tivities are ro+i)ite$insi$e a marine se&ial reserve , namel5 +unting, mining, )ir$ egg i&kingW &uttingo8 mangroves, $re$ging in &oral ree8 areasW =s+ing using ele&tri&it5W $ire&t $is&+arges o8 ollutants into t+e seaW unaut+oriHe$ a&uisition, ro&essing an$ market ing o8 wil$li8e an$ mineral ro$u&tsW removing, $e8a&ing an$ $amaging t+e areas7

8a&ilities. !t+er a&tivities, su&+ as e&ologi&al aua&ulture, arti=&ial )ree$ing o8marine se&ies, e&otourism, leisure =s+ing, s&ienti=& e;eriments, e$u&ation an$u)li& awareness, are allowe$ un$er stri&t &on$itions. :+e &on$itions to )erese&te$ in&lu$e t+e &ontrol o8 t+e tourist @ow an$ t+e use o8 +ealt+5 8armingte&+niues 8or aua&ulture. :+e violation o8 t+e 'easures is su)%e&t to ana$ministrative line t+at goes 8rom 10,000 to 10,000,000 Remin)i 5uan an$ t+eo)ligation to reair t+e $amage &ause$ . At t+e &entral level, t+e tate !&eani&A$ministration is in &+arge o8 t+e overall suervision an$ management o8 se&ial





Nor+ay C



1NC )e4t)e4t= )he Gingdom of Nor+ay should \-NS36) PN )3Q)].



Solvency CardsNor+ay can do the #lan already enforcing marine reservesire&torate o8 Cis+eries, 9, 2?9, +tt-www.=skeri$ir.noenglis+=s+eriesmarinerote&te$areasF

:+e Norwegian =s+eries management regime is aiming at ma;imiHing t+e long term sustaina)le 5iel$o8 t+e living marine resour&es an$ at t+e same time rote&ting )io$iversit5 an$ t+e 8un&tioning o8e&os5stems. :o a&+ieve t+is goal a &omre+ensive set o8 management measures +as )een $eveloe$

over t+e last several $e&a$es, in&lu$ing a &omle; variety of 7s as $e=ne$ )5 >DN. :+emanagement regime an$ its a&&oman5ing measures are $5nami& an$ $eveloing. ome o8 t+e area

)ase$ measures ma5 originall5 +ave )een intro$u&e$ 8or ot+er reasons t+an #rotecting

biodiversity, i.e. rote&tion o8 small s&ale stati& gear =s+eries 8rom t+e &ometition o8 large s&ale

trawlers. till, su&+ an area +as in 8a&t en%o5e$, ma5)e 8or $e&a$es, a +ig+er rote&tion t+an itssurroun$ings. Area )ase$ management measures +ave so 8ar )een intro$u&e$ to Norwegian =s+eriesmanagement. #ursuant to t+is A&t t+e 'inistr5 o8 Cis+eries an$ Doastal AMairs +as lai$ $own $etaile$rovisions in t+e regulations relating to seawater =s+eries. :+e regulation is 8reuentl5 u$ate$, an$atta&+e$ to it are mas s+owing a su)stantial num)er o8, )ut )5 8ar not all, marine areas rote&te$ )5Norwegian =s+eries legislation. in&e 2004 e;tensive management measures +ave gra$uall5 )eenintro$u&e$ to re)uil$ t+e sto&k o8 Norwegian &oastal &o$. Doastal &o$ an$ ar&ti& &o$ mi; on t+e =s+inggroun$s in 8%or$s an$ &oastal waters. A &ore element o8 t+e management lan is to us+ t+e @eet=s+ing 8or &o$ out 8rom t+e &oastW t+e larger t+e vessel t+e 8urt+er out it +as to move. etaile$rovisions e;&lu$ing se&i=& @eet grous an$ gears 8rom areas insi$e 8%or$s 8%or$ linesF, t+e )aseline,4 or / nm rese&tivel5, are lai$ $ownin t+e annual Regulation o8 t+e &o$, +a$$o&k an$ sait+e =s+eriesnort+ o8 /2o N.

rograms already in #lace, Nor+ay already +or!ingArti& Doun&il, 11, 4<11, +tt-www.ar&ti&&oun&il.orgin$e;.+enar&ti&&ontaminantsa&tion

rograma&aF

:+e Ar&ti& Dontaminants A&tion #rogram ADA#F is one of the si4 Dor!ing :rou#s o8 t+e

Ar&ti& Doun&il w+i&+ was 8ormall5 given working grou status at t+e Ar&ti& Doun&il 'inisterial 'eetingin alek+ar$, Russia in !&to)er 200/. #rior to t+at, ADA# +a$ oerate$ as a steering &ommittee &alle$t+e Ar&ti& Doun&il A&tion #lan to Eliminate #ollution in t+e Ar&ti& wit+ a man$ate to in&rease eMorts tolimit an$ re$u&e emissions o8 ollutants into t+e environment an$ romote international &ooeration.

:+e goal o8 ADA# &ontinues to )e to re$u&e emissions o8 ollutants into t+e environment in or$er to

re$u&e t+e i$enti=e$ ollution risks. ADA# also en&ourages national a&tions 8or Ar&ti& tate

governments to take reme$ial an$ reventive a&tions relating to &ontaminants an$ ot+er releases o8

ollutants. ADA# a&ts as a strengt+ening an$ suorting me&+anism to en&ourage national a&tions tore$u&e emissions an$ ot+er releases o8 ollutants. :+e Donservation o8 Ar&ti& Clora an$ Cauna DACCF ist+e )io$iversit5 working grou o8 t+e Ar&ti& Doun&il, an$ its man$ate is to a$$ress t+e &onservation o8Ar&ti& )io$iversit5, an$ to &ommuni&ate its =n$ings to t+e governments an$ resi$ents o8 t+e Ar&ti&,+eling to romote ra&ti&es w+i&+ ensure t+e sustaina)ilit5 o8 t+e Ar&ti&7s living resour&es.DACC7sro%e&ts rovi$e $ata 8or in8orme$ $e&ision making in resolving t+e &+allenges w+i&+ are now arising in

tr5ing to )ot+ &onserve t+e natural environment an$ ermit regional growt+. :+is work is )ase$ uon&ooeration )etween all Ar&ti& &ountries, in$igenous organiHations, international &onventions, an$organiHations.

http://www.caff.is/

http://www.caff.is/



Nor+ay ta!ing *rst ste#s to create 7 double of "bamasAntar&ti& an$ out+ern !&ean Doalition, 1? , L101?, +tt-www.aso&.orgnewsan$u)li&ationsu)li&ationswillnorwa5rote&tt+eantar&ti&o&eanF

Norwa5 %oins 2? &ountries an$ t+e E in a vote t+at s+oul$ see t+e &reation o8 t+eworl$7s largest marine reserve, an$ $ou)ling o8 t+e rote&tion o8 eart+7s o&eans,

an$ t+e rote&tion o8 large areas o8 t+e sout+ern o&ean surroun$ing antar&ti&a,+ome to enguins, seals, sea )ir$s, or&as an$ uniue se&ies o8 =s+. :+e&ommission 8or t+e &onservation o8 Antar&ti& marine living resour&es &&amlrF will+ol$ a se&ial meeting in Bremer+aven, erman5 on Jul5 1<t+ an$ 1/t+ to &onsi$er

%ust two t+ings- roosals to $esignate large marine rote&te$ areas in t+e Ross eaan$ along east Antar&ti&a7s &oast. Norwa5 will &+air t+e meeting, )ut is sen$ing nosenior oO&ialsW else Berit Eikelan$, w+o re&entl5 took over $elegation lea$ers+i8rom Karsten Klesvik, will aarentl5 not atten$. An$ norwa57s osition on w+et+erit will suort t+e &onsensus reuire$ to su&&ess8ull5 esta)lis+ t+e reserves is&urrentl5 un&lear. A ositive $e&ision in Bremer+aven woul$ turn 1./ million km2 o8t+e ristine ross sea an$ 1.9 million km2 o8 east Antar&ti&a7s waters into marine

rote&te$ areas, &lose$ to &ommer&ial =s+ing an$ ot+er in$ustries. n &ountries are&ommitte$ to rote&ting 10 er&ent o8 t+e worl$^s o&eans )5 2020, 5et we +avea&+ieve$ %ust 1Z. :+e Bremer+aven vote is t+e 8astest route to 10 er&ent.

Nor+ay already #rotecting 1KW of its "ceantate o8 Environment Norwa5, 1? 411?, +tt-www.environment.no:oi&sBiologi&al

$iversit5#rote&te$areasF

:+e $egra$ation an$ 8ragmentation o8 +a)itats is t+e greatest t+reat to )io$iversit5 in Norwa5. B5

esta)lis+ing national arks an$ ot+er rote&te$ areas, we &an sa8eguar$ t+reatene$ an$ vulnera)le

+a)itats an$ areas o8 international, national or regional imortan&e. :+e Donvention on Biologi&al

iversit5 is t+e glo)al agreement on t+e &onservation an$ sustaina)le use o8 )iologi&al $iversit5. At t+e

Nago5a summit in 2010, t+e worl$7s &ountries agree$ on new goals G t+e Ai&+i targets G to )e

a&+ieve$ )5 2020. :+ese in&lu$e ensuring t+e eMe&tive &onservation o8 e&ologi&all5 reresentative

areas &overing at least 1L er &ent o8 terrestrial an$ inlan$ water areas an$ 10 er &ent o8 &oastal an$

marine areas. Almost 1L er &ent o8 mainlan$ Norwa5 is now rote&te$ un$er t+e Nature iversit5 A&t .

A large roortion o8 t+is &onsists o8 mountainous areas. A num)er o8 ot+er +a)itat t5es, su&+ as

t+ose in &oastal an$ marine +a)itats, are not 5et a$euatel5 reresente$. Doastal waters wit+in t+e

)aseline aroun$ mainlan$ Norwa5 &over an area o8 90 000 km2, )ut onl5 a)out 2 900 km2 o8 t+is is

rote&te$. Norwa5 +as an international resonsi)ilit5 to sa8eguar$ a reresentative sele&tion o8 8%or$

an$ &oastal areas o8 t5es t+at are +ar$l5 8oun$ an5w+ere else in t+e worl$. !ne o8 t+e national arks

in&lu$es skerries oM t+e &oast, )ut 8%or$s are ver5 oorl5 reresente$. >n a$$ition, Norwa5 +as

$esignate$ t+e islan$ o8 Jan 'a5en nort+east o8 >&elan$ as a nature reserve. :+e reserve in&lu$es a

marine area o8 aro;imatel5 4 ?1< km2 aroun$ t+e islan$. A mu&+ +ig+er roortion o8 val)ar$ t+ano8 mainlan$ Norwa5 is rote&te$, in&lu$ing large marine areas. National arks an$ nature reserves are

rote&te$ un$er t+e 2002 val)ar$ Environmental #rote&tion A&t. Altoget+er, t+e5 &over /< er &ent o8

t+e area o8 t+e islan$s an$ a)out L er &ent o8 t+e territorial waters out to t+e 12nauti&almile

territorial limit. Dontinue$ 8ragmentation an$ $eveloment o8 areas o8 natural +a)itat will +ave a

negative ima&t on )iologi&al $iversit5. :+ere is a risk t+at imortant +a)itat t5es will $isaear

altoget+er. Cuture generations ma5 +ave more restri&te$ oortunities 8or sustaina)le use o8 )iologi&al

$iversit5 an$ 8or e;erien&ing Norwa57s natural ri&+es t+an we $o to$a5.

http://www.cbd.int/intro/






United Gingdom C^^Note^^

:+is is ro)a)l5 )est run in &on%un&tion wit+ a )asi& oliti&s $isa$. :+e i$ea +ere ist+at +aving t+e nite$ King$om $o t+e lan in t+e #it&airn >slan$s not onl5 solves

8or massive )io$iversit5 in an in&reasingl5 t+reate$ region, )ut, more imortantl5,$oesn7t link to t+e massive oliti&al struggles seen )5 !)ama a8ter +is allo&ation o8water aroun$ (awaii 8or a 'arine #rote&te$ Area. !)ama use$ an e;e&utive or$erto allo&ate t+is lan$, lea$ing to massive oliti&al in=g+ting w+i&+ is &omletel5avoi$e$ i8 t+e lan is asse$.

Sou aren7t going to win t+at t+e #it&airn >slan$s are more e&ologi&all5 )io$iverset+an (awaii, )e&ause, like, t+at7s totall5 not true. (owever, i8 5ou &an win t+at itavoi$s tearing oliti&s to s+re$s an$ +urting !)ama7s oliti&al &aital, t+en 5ou&an ver5 easil5 win wit+ t+is D#.



1NC Shell

)e4t= )he United Gingdom of :reat @ritain and Northern -reland

should designate its 34clusive 3conomic one around the

itcairn -slands as a No )a!e 7arine 6eserve and increasemarine #rotection around its territories in the aci*c "cean.

)he UGs territory in the aci*c "cean is incredibly biodiverse

and rich in unique life. rotecting the areas around the -slands

is critical.

@@C, Ean 12 /01>

+tt-www.))&.&omnewsukoliti&s2<L<1<?L K 6not rote&ting7 Bio$iversit5 in overseas

territories*F

:+e E nvironmental A u$it D ommittee sai$ t+e K was resonsi)le 8or en$angere$se&ies an$ signi=&ant +a)itats in 14 lo&ations , in&lu$ing Bermu$a, Anguilla i)raltaran$ t+e Calklan$ >slan$s. But t+ese +a$ not )een 8ull5 assesse$ an$ &atalogue$, an$ t+e K^s aroa&+ was )ase$

on vague asirations. 3il$li8e grous sa5 t+e government must signi=&antl5 raisesen$ing in t+em . A&&or$ing to t+e &ommittee, t+e 14 overseas territories 8or w+i&+t+e K is resonsi)le &ontain vast tra&ts o8 o&ean, t+ousan$s o8 &oral atolls, troi&al8orests an$ a olar wil$erness si; times t+e siHe o8 t+e K. :+e5 &ontain at least

<1L glo)all5 t+reatene$ se&ies as well as un$istur)e$ +a)itats o8 internationalsigni=&an&e. But t+e '#s warn t+at t+ese are at risk o8 imme$iate an$ signi=&antt+reats 8rom invasive se&ies, un$erregulate$ $eveloment an$ &limate &+ange. 3e )elieve t+e governmentmust +ee$ t+is warning now an$ take t+e a&tion ne&essar5 to rote&t t+e territoriesûniue wil$li8e* r. :im towe R#B Alt+oug+ t+e K +a$ su)&ontra&te$ environmental management to t+e aut+orities in

t+e in+a)ite$ territories, t+e &ommittee sai$ t+is &annot $evolve awa5 t+e K^s ultimate resonsi)ilit5 un$er international law. >t

is &alling on ministers to work wit+ lo&al oO&ials on t+e islan$s &on&erne$ to romote sustaina)le tourism an$ lanning regimes.

:+e natural environment in t+e overseas territories is in&re$i)l5 $iverse, )ut it is&urrentl5 un$errote&te$, Joan 3alle5, t+e a)our '# w+o &+airs t+e )o$5, sai$. :+e K government $oesn^t even

know re&isel5 w+at it is resonsi)le 8or, )e&ause it +as 8aile$ a&&uratel5 to assess an$ &atalogue t+ose se&ies an$ +a)itats. -n#articular, she said, the UG must bac! the 20 inhabitants of the itcairn

-slands in their e5orts to establish a fully marine$#rotected area aroundthe islands . +e a$$e$- uring our inuir5, t+e K government e;resse$ vague asirations to ̂ &+eris+^ t+e environment

in t+e overseas territories, )ut it was unwilling to a&knowle$ge or to a$$ress its resonsi)ilities un$er nite$ Nations treaties.

Alt+oug+ it is reare$ to e;er&ise +ar$ an$ so8t ower in relation to =nan&ial matters in t+e territories, t+e K government is

aarentl5 not reare$ to e;er&ise t+ose owers to rote&t )io$iversit5 an$ to romote environmental sustaina)ilit5. :+e 14

territories AnguillaW Bermu$aW Britis+ Antar&ti& :erritor5W Britis+ >n$ian !&ean :erritor5W Da5man >slan$sW t+e overeign Base Areas

o8 Akrotiri an$ +ekelia in D5rusW Calklan$ >slan$sW i)raltarW 'ontserratW #it&airn, (en$erson, u&ie an$ !eno >slan$s known as

#it&airn >slan$sFW t (elena, As&ension an$ :ristan $a Dun+aW out+ eorgia an$ t+e out+ an$wi&+ >slan$sW :urks an$ Dai&os

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-25751537

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-25751537



>slan$sW an$ Britis+ Qirgin >slan$s +ave a &om)ine$ oulation o8 a)out 2<0,000. :+e Ro5al o&iet5 8or t+e #rote&tion o8 Bir$s +as

estimate$ t+e K nee$s to sen$ 1/m a 5ear over =ve 5ears to rote&t t+e wil$li8e o8 t+e territories, against t+e 1.<m it sent last

5ear. 3e )elieve t+e government must +ee$ t+is warning now an$ take t+e a&tionne&essar5 to rote&t t+e territories^ uniue wil$li8e an$ la5 its art in &ur)ing t+e&urrent glo)al e;tin&tion &risis, sai$ its international $ire&tor, r :im towe. :+e K &on&lu$es international

treaties on t+e territories^ )e+al8 an$ is ultimatel5 resonsi)le i8 t+e5 violate a treat5 o)ligation. :+e K is a signator5 to t+e NDonvention on Biologi&al iversit5, w+i&+ sets out t+e a&tions t+at &ountries must take to rote&t se&ies an$ e&os5stems.

)he UG overseas territories in the itcairn -slands are some of

the most biodiverse regions in the aci*c. 6esidents are

committed to #rotection but the #arliament must be

convinced.

CNN, 1/

+tt-www.&nn.&om20121204worl$asiait&airnmarine)ount5

#rote&ting #it&airn^s marine )ount5*F

:+e #it&airn >slan$s mig+t onl5 +ave << +uman in+a)itants, )ut t+e waters

surroun$ing t+em are teeming wit+ marine li8e . A new stu$5 )5 t+e #ewEnvironment rou in artners+i wit+ t+eNational eogra+i& o&iet5 +as reveale$ t+e glorious

e;tent o8 t+e )io$iversit5 in t+is remote &orner o8 t+e out+ #a&i=&. A team o8 s&ientists le$

)5 marine e&ologist Enri& ala &omlete$ more t+an 4<0 $ives at 9L lo&ations earlier t+is 5ear as well as lowering &ameras $own to

$et+s o8 1,/00 meters in a 8urt+er 1L sots. Along wit+ more t+an 2<0 se&ies o8 =s+, L0 se&ies o8 &oral an$ more t+an /0 varieties o8 algae were o)serve$ aroun$ t+e 8our islan$s

#it&airn, (en$erson, !eno an$ u&ieF t+at make u t+e Britis+ !verseas :erritor5. :o $ate, nearl5 1,2<0 marine se&ies in&lu$ing sea)ir$sF +ave )een 8oun$ in t+e

area , )ut s&ientists )elieve man5 more remain un$is&overe$ . nless we &+ange ourrelations+i wit+ t+e sea, we will inevita)l5 )ear witness to its &ollase. iven its uniue an$ ristine

environment, t+e e;e$ition reort re&ommen$s turning t+e E;&lusive E&onomi&]one EE] F an area e;ten$ing 200 nauti&al miles 8rom a territor5^s &oast aroun$

#it&airn into a notake marine reserve . :+ere are onl5 a +an$8ul o8 EE]s o8 t+eworl$ t+at remain ristine o&&u5ing less t+an <Z o8 t+e o&ean, t+e reort sa5s.

:+ese la&es allow us to know w+at t+e o&ean was like )e8ore +eav5 +umanima&ts ... an$ most imortant, to set roer &onservation an$ management goals

8or our o&eans. +oul$ t+e K government )a&k t+e lan, t+e reserve woul$ )e&ome t+e largest

of its !ind in the +orld , &overing an area o8 more t+an 00,000 suare kilometers

?00,000 suare milesF, a&&or$ing to t+e #ew Environment rou. :+e roosals +ave re&eive$ t+e

enthusiastic bac!ing o8 t+e #it&airn islan$ers, w+ose tin5 oulation in&lu$es a $ire&t $es&en$ant o8 Clet&+er

D+ristian lea$er o8 t+e mutineers on (' Bount5 w+o settle$ on t+e islan$ in 1L90.A National eogra+i& $o&umentar5 a)out t+e

e;e$ition #it&airn- :+e Real Bount5 Reveale$ re&entl5 remiere$ at t+e +ea$uarters o8 t+e K^s Ro5al o&iet5 in on$on.

eaking at t+e event, #ew Environment rou managing $ire&tor, Jos+ Rei&+ert sai$ t+at until re&entl5 it was wi$el5 )elieve$ t+at

t+e o&eans were too vast an$ a)un$ant to )e ima&te$ )5 +umans. 3e now know t+is is not true. nless we &+ange our

relations+i wit+ t+e sea, we will inevita)l5 )ear witness to its &ollase, Rei&+ert sai$.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/04/world/asia/pitcairn-marine-bounty/

http://www.pewenvironment.org/campaigns/global-ocean-legacy/id/8589941025


http://www.nationalgeographic.com/

http://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/explorers/bios/enric-sala/


http://www.fao.org/docrep/s5280T/s5280t0p.htm


http://library.puc.edu/pitcairn/pitcairn/history.shtml



http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/11/27/pitcairn-the-real-bounty-revealed/


http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/04/world/asia/pitcairn-marine-bounty/



http://www.nationalgeographic.com/








^^Note^^ :+e 8ollowing &ar$ is awesome i8 t+e5 +ave a )io$iversit5warming a$vantage. >t)asi&all5 sa5s t+at rote&ting t+e #it&airn >slan$s is a &riti&al rereuisite torote&ting t+e rest o8 t+e worl$ )e&ause it rovi$es uniue insig+t into ristineo&ean. :+e argument is ma$e t+at t+e #it&airn >slan$s are like a :ime 'a&+ine*allowing us to go )a&k an$ see w+at unmoleste$ ree8 +a)itats look like. :+is, 5ou&an argue, is a)solutel5 &riti&al )e&ause 5ou &annot rote&t wit+ t+e intent o8restoring a marine environment or 8or t+at matter an5 environmentF i8 5ou $on7tknow to w+at state 5ou inten$ to return it.

)he itcairn -slands are critical to our understanding of the

ocean. )hey #rovide valuable insight into future #rotection.

Friedlander et al, 1>

+tt-www.losone.orgarti&lein8oZ?A$oiZ2C10.1?L1Z2C%ournal.one.0100142 :+e Real Bount5-'arine Bio$iversit5 in t+e #it&airn >slan$s* Crie$lan$er A', Daselle JE, Ballesteros E, Brown EK, :ur&+ikA, et al. Crie$lan$er works at t+e universit5 o8 (awaii wit+ t+e $eartments o8 Doral Ree8 Dommunit5E&olog5, Cis+eries &ien&e, 'arine Donservation Biolog5, an$ :ra$itional 'arine Resour&e se an$'anagement

Be&ause o8 t+e nearl5 ristine an$ uniue nature o8 most marine e&os5stems o8 t+e #it&airn >slan$s, its EE] +as a uniueglo)al value t+at is irrela&ea)le. :+ere are onl5 a +an$8ul o8 areas in t+e EE]s o8t+e worl$ t+at remain ristine, o&&u5ing ro)a)l5 less t+an <Z o8 t+e o&ean [?. :+ese la&es allowus to envision w+at t+e o&ean was like )e8ore +eav5 +uman ima&ts, to un$erstan$w+at we +ave lost in ot+er la&es )e&ause o8 +uman ima&ts, an$ most imortantl5,to set roer &onservation an$ management goals 8or our o&eans [2?G[24. #it&airn islan$s

an$ t+e surroun$ing EE] are &urrentl5 )eing &onsi$ere$ 8or rote&tion in w+at woul$ )e t+e largest marine reserve in t+e worl$,&ontaining aro;imatel5 ?/,000 km2. >n etem)er 2012, t+e #it&airn &ommunit5 unanimousl5 agree$ to suort t+e &reation o8 a

marine reserve, an$ in Januar5 201? a %oint roosal was su)mitte$ to t+e K overnment 8or &onsi$eration. >8 rote&tiono8 t+is area ro&ee$s, s&ienti=& resear&+ an$ monitoring will )e esta)lis+e$. :+isstu$5, as t+e =rst to uantitativel5 assess t+e &ommunit5 stru&ture o8 t+e organismsin+a)iting t+e &oral ree8s on t+e #it&airn islan$s, will rovi$e a valua)le )aseline )5w+i&+ 8uture &+anges in e&os5stem &omonents &an )e measure$.

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0100142

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0100142



/NC UG Gey-mmediate #rotection is necessary in the region. itcairn

-slands are !ey to biodiversity and only the UG can solve.

@@C, Eune /& /01>

+tt-www.))&.&omnewss&ien&eenvironment20220?1 ^>mme$iate rote&tion^ nee$e$ 8or#it&airn^s marine )ount5* 'att '&rat+ is t+e environment &orreson$ent 8or BBD news, +avingreorte$ on numerous environmental issues. (e &ites a surve5 $one )5 r. Enri& ala, w+o is aNational eogra+i& e;lorerinresi$en&e a&tivel5 engage$ in e;loration, resear&+, an$&ommuni&ations to a$van&e o&ean &onservationF

Resear&+ers sa5 t+at imme$iate rote&tion is reuire$ 8or t+e waters aroun$ t+e remote#it&airn >slan$s in t+e #a&i=&, +ome to one o8 t+e worl$^s rarest an$ most valua)le&olle&tions o8 marine se&ies. :+e waters +ave uniue glo)al value t+at isirrela&ea)le sa5s t+e reort, 8rom an international team o8 s&ientists. :+e5^ve &arrie$ out t+e =rst un$erwater surve5s o8

t+e $ee an$ s+allow waters aroun$ t+e islan$s, )est known 8or t+eir &onne&tion to t+e mutin5 on t+e Ro5al Nav5 s+i, Bount5, in

t+e 1t+ &entur5. ome o8 t+e mutineers settle$ on #it&airn an$ aroun$ <0 o8 t+eir $es&en$ents still live t+ere, governe$ as a Britis+

overseas territor5. #eole know a)out t+e mutin5 on t+e Bount5 )ut t+e true )ount5 o8 t+e#it&airn^s is un$erwater* r Enri& ala, National eogra+i& o&iet5. :+e 8our islan$s in t+e grou lie

+al8wa5 )etween New ]ealan$ an$ out+ Ameri&a. :+e5 are sai$ to )e 8urt+er 8rom a &ontinent t+anan5 ot+er in+a)ite$ islan$. :+e e;tremel5 remote lo&ation +as revente$ riors&ienti=& e;loration o8 t+e unsullie$ waters. >t is a treasure trove o8 marinese&ies , r Enri& ala tol$ BBD News. #eole know a)out t+e mutin5 on t+e Bount5 )ut t+e true )ount5 o8

t+e #it&airn^s is un$erwater. :+e s&ientists 8oun$ +ealt+5 &oral ree8s an$ an a)un$an&e o8=s+, aroun$ +al8 o8 t+em not 8oun$ an5w+ere else in t+e worl$. A ke5 in$i&ator o8t+e water^s goo$ state were t+e num)er o8 to re$ators like s+arks t+at t+e s&ientists

re&or$e$. :+e5 a&&ounte$ 8or over +al8 o8 t+e )iomass at u&ie Atoll, one o8 t+e least$istur)e$ lo&ations. #er+as t+e most signi=&ant $is&over5 was $own to t+e urit5

o8 t+e water . :+e s&ientists 8oun$ a t5e o8 &oralline algae living $eeer t+anan5w+ere else on eart+. >t lives at ?2m t+at^s more t+an 100m $eeer t+an t+e revious re&or$, )e&ause o8 t+e

&larit5 o8 t+e water, sai$ r ala. >t also allows &oral ree8s to grow to $et+s t+at arein&re$i)le elsew+ere, we 8oun$ well $eveloe$ ree8s )etween L< an$ 100m )elowt+e sur8a&e. :+e remoteness o8 t+e islan$s +as )een &riti&al in reserving t+ewaters )ut t+e s&ientists saw some evi$en&e o8 t+e en&roa&+ment o8 illegal s+ark=s+ing, &arrie$ out )5 8oreign @eets. )hey argue that #lans to turn the islandsinto one of the +orldYs biggest marine reserves should go ahead as soonas is #racticable . :+e islan$ers +ave vote$ in 8avour o8 t+is aroa&+ an$ a lan +as )een su)mitte$ to t+e K

government to &reate a ?/,000 s km rote&te$ Hone aroun$ t+e islan$s. :+e lan is still )eing &onsi$ere$ )5t+e K , )ut it +as )een )ooste$ in re&ent weeks wit+ t+e announ&ement t+at t+e

nite$ tates is to $e&lare a +uge reserve aroun$ t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arineNational 'onument. :+e s&ientists sa5 t+e time is rig+t 8or t+e #it&airns to 8ollow suit. :+ese islan$s arelike a time ma&+ine, t+at allow us to get )a&k +un$re$s o8 5ears to see w+at we+ave lost , sai$ r ala. But we &an also to $etermine w+at we want 8or t+e8uture.


http://www.royalnavalmuseum.org/info_sheets_bounty.htm


http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21588420-south-pacific-about-get-worlds-biggest-national-park-pitcairns-bounty


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27890072














No Pin! J:eneric AisadsL

K will ass, %ust nee$s romting. Dounterlan is

oular amongst islan$ natives, relative tounoular rote&tion aroun$ imme$iate Kterritor5.!r

Counter#lan is a better investment, e4#ected to boost

revenues from tourism at minimal cost.!r

Aoesnt lin! to the *shing industry A,

already scarce *shing in the region outside of illegal *shing, *shing only accounts for <0! a

year.

3conomist, 1<

+tt-www.e&onomist.&omnewsasia21<420sout+a&i=&a)outgetworl$s)iggestnationalarkit&airns)ount5 #it&airn7s )ount5* F

!N AN, nature reserves are ten a enn5. A)out onesi;t+ o8 t+e eart+7s lan$

sur8a&e is rote&te$ in one wa5 or anot+er. Reserves at sea are mu&+ s&ar&er,&overing, at most, ?Z. But a roosal to $esignate t+e E;&lusive E&onomi& ]onearoun$ t+e #it&airn islan$s in t+e out+ #a&i=& as a marine rote&te$ area '#AF ma5 +elre$ress t+e )alan&e. :+e Britis+ $een$en&5 o8 #it&airn oulation, /<F is +ome to $es&en$ants o8 t+e Bount5

mutineers. :+e i$ea o8 a reserve, romote$ )5 t+e Ameri&an)ase$ #ew D+arita)le :rusts, is to )an =s+ingin ?0,000 suare km ?20,000 suare milesF o8 sea aroun$ #it&airn. :+e imme$iate&ost to #it&airn7s e&onom5 woul$ )e trivial- some "?0,000 in li&ense 8ees 8or tuna=s+ing 8orgone ea&+ 5ear. >n return t+e worl$7s smallest $emo&ra&5 woul$ not onl5en%o5 t+e ku$os o8 +aving t+e worl$7s )iggest '#A, )ut also +oe to $raw tourists.

:+e reat Barrier Ree8 is re&kone$ to )ring in a)out "4 )illion 8or Australia ea&+5ear. (oes are +ig+ t+at t+e Britis+ government will en$orse t+e i$ea. #it&airn relies on

annual Britis+ su)si$ies euivalent to <0,000 "1,000F er in+a)itant. An$ t+e '#A lan is )roa$l5 wel&ome$)5 islan$ers. imon Soung, #it&airn7s $eut5 ma5or, sa5s it +as alwa5s )een a sea8aring nation, rote&tive o8 its marine

environment*. >8 Britain ena&te$ legislation 8or t+e reserve, it woul$ not 8a&e lo&aloosition as it $i$ w+en it $esignate$ a reserve aroun$ t+e D+agos ar&+ielago int+e >n$ian !&ean in 2010. o&als +a$ )een 8or&e$ out in t+e late 19/0s an$ earl5 19L0s to make wa5 8or an Ameri&an

)aseW t+e reserve was seen as anot+er wa5 to sto t+em ever returning. :+e #it&airn islan$s &oul$ s&ar&el5 )emore remote, wit+ New ]ealan$ 4,00km ?,000 milesF to t+e west an$ E&ua$or /,000km to t+e east. Argua)l5, t+isisolation revents over=s+ing. :+e worst over=s+ing takes la&e in w+at #eter Jones,








a geogra+er, &alls metroolitan seas* near larger oulations. >t is, +e sa5s,oliti&all5 easier to $esignate an '#A in a remote area t+an w+ere =s+eries are+eavil5 use$. Britain7s struggle to &reate signi=&ant '#As aroun$ its own &oastun$erlines t+e oint.

\\>NER: DAR AS>N !Q>N C!R #>:DA>RN KES :! !BA #R!:ED:>!N,

A!3 C!R BE::ER #R!:ED:>!N. 'EAN N! >NK :! 3AR'>NB>!>QER>:S!\\



A2- Reserves Better

#lan in&re$i)l5 unoular, means oliti&al

in=g+ting an$ massive +its to lo&al e&onomies.3il#erin, Eune 1K /01>

J+tt-www.was+ingtonost.&omoliti&so)amawillroosevaste;ansiono8a&i=&o&eanmarinesan&tuar520140/1/8/99L280&/11e?)8L/44La<$8/4118Vstor5.+tml !)ama rooses vaste;ansion o8 #a&i=& !&ean san&tuaries 8or marine li8e Juliet Eilerin %oine$ :+e 3as+ington #ost ast+e (ouse o8 Reresentatives reorter, w+ere s+e &overe$ t+e imea&+ment o8 Bill Dlinton, lo))5ing,legislation, an$ 8our national &ongressional &amaigns. in&e Aril o8 2004 s+e +as &overe$ t+eenvironment 8or t+e national $esk, reorting on s&ien&e, oli&5 an$ oliti&s in areas in&lu$ing &limate&+ange, o&eans, an$ air ualit5.

#resi$ent !)ama announ&e$ :ues$a5 +is intent to make a )roa$ swat+ o8 t+e&entral #a&i=& !&ean oMlimits to =s+ing, energ5 e;loration an$ ot+er a&tivities. :+e

roosal, slate$ to go into eMe&t later t+is 5ear a8ter a &omment erio$, &oul$ &reate t+e worl$7s largest marine san&tuar5 an$$ou)le t+e area o8 o&ean glo)all5 t+at is 8ull5 rote&te$. >7m going to use m5 aut+orit5 to rote&t some o8 our nation7s mostre&ious marine lan$s&aes,* !)ama sai$ in a vi$eo to arti&iants at a tate eartment &on8eren&e, a$$ing t+at w+ile t+e o&eanis )eing $egra$e$, 3e &annot aMor$ to let t+at +aen. :+at7s w+5 t+e nite$ tates is lea$ing t+e =g+t to rote&t our o&eans.*

:+e announ&ement X =rst reorte$ earlier :ues$a5 )5 :+e 3as+ington #ost X isart o8 a )roa$er us+ on maritime issues )5 an a$ministration t+at +as generall58avore$ ot+er environmental riorities. :+e o&eans eMort, le$ )5 e&retar5 o8 tate

Jo+n C. Kerr5 an$ 3+ite (ouse &ounselor Jo+n . #o$esta, is likel5 to sark a newoliti&al )attle wit+ Reu)li&ans over t+e s&oe o8 !)ama7s e;e&utive owers. :+e

resi$ent will also $ire&t 8e$eral agen&ies to $evelo a &omre+ensive rogram aime$ at &om)ating sea8oo$ 8rau$ an$ t+e glo)al)la&kmarket =s+ tra$e. >n a$$ition, t+e a$ministration =naliHe$ a rule last week allowing t+e u)li& to nominate new marine

san&tuaries oM .. &oasts an$ in t+e reat akes. !)ama +as use$ +is e;e&utive aut+orit5 11 timesto sa8eguar$ areas on lan$, )ut s&ientists an$ a&tivists +ave )een ressing +im to

$o t+e same 8or untou&+e$ un$erwater regions. #resi$ent eorge 3. Bus+ +ol$s t+e re&or$ 8or &reating

.. marine monuments, $e&laring 8our $uring +is se&on$ term, in&lu$ing t+e one t+at !)ama lans to e;an$. n$er t+e roosal,a&&or$ing to two in$een$ent anal5ses, t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arine National 'onument woul$ )e e;an$e$ 8rom almostL,000 suare miles to nearl5 L2,000 suare miles X all o8 it a$%a&ent to seven islan$s an$ atolls &ontrolle$ )5 t+e nite$ tates.

:+e $esignation woul$ in&lu$e waters u to 200 nauti&al miles oMs+ore 8rom t+e territories. >t7s t+e &losest t+ing >7ve seen to t+eristine o&ean,* sai$ Enri& ala, a National eogra+i& e;lorerinresi$en&e w+o +as resear&+e$ t+e area7s ree8s an$ atolls sin&e200<. !)ama +as 8a&e$ &riti&ism 8rom a variet5 o8 grous X in&lu$ing &attle ran&+ers, law en8or&ement oO&ers an$ A:Q ent+usiasts

X over +is e;ansion o8 rote&tions 8or 8e$eral lan$s . :+e o&ean area un$er &onsi$eration, )5

&ontrast, en&omasses unin+a)ite$ islan$s in a remote region wit+ sarse e&onomi& a&tivit5. Even so, t+e $esignation ise;e&te$ to 8a&e o)%e&tions 8rom t+e .. tuna @eet t+at oerates in t+e region. Cis+&aug+t in t+e area a&&ount 8or u to ? er&ent o8 t+e annual .. tuna &at&+ in t+ewestern an$ &entral #a&i=&, a&&or$ing to t+e #ew D+arita)le :rusts. 3+en Bus+&reate$ t+e monument in 2009, +e e;emte$ sort =s+ing to a$$ress in$ustr5

oosition. 'ike eonar$, o&ean resour&e oli&5 $ire&tor 8or t+e Ameri&anort=s+ing Asso&iation, sai$ re&reational =s+ing ent+usiasts woul$ us+ to ensuret+eir e;isting e;emtion sta5s in la&e i8 t+e rote&te$ area is e;an$e$. 3e)elieve in almost all instan&es 5ou &an still +ave marine &onservation an$ marinerote&tion, an$ still allow 8or sustaina)le re&reational =s+ing a&tivities to takela&e,* eonar$ sai$, a$$ing t+ere7s almost no sort=s+ing a&tivit5 in t+e area )e&ause it7s a +e&k o8 a trek out t+ere. !ur

&on&ern is o)viousl5 wit+ t+e re&e$ent t+is mig+t set.*

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-will-propose-vast-expansion-of-pacific-ocean-marine-sanctuary/2014/06/16/f8689972-f0c6-11e3-bf76-447a5df6411f_story.html






\\\i8 t+e5 are using m5 2AD )lo&ks t+is also +as t+e a$$e$ )ene=t o8 )eing 8romone o8 t+eir aut+ors, w+i&+ is ni&eF\\\

)heir o+n #lan says that ma!ing these areasNo$)a!e 7arine 6eserves is critical to their

solvency. 3ither they concede that theydont ban all *shing in the region, in +hich

case they cannot access their solvency, orthey dont allo+ *shing in +hich case they

lin! hard to J*shing industry, #oliticsL



/= erm#oliti&s an$ t+e =s+ing $isa$s serve to answer t+e erm





olitics A



1NC Pin! 6ecent "bama Q" solves the a5 but its massively un#o#ular

+ith the :" and *shing grou#s – continued debate in

Congress sets a #recedent +hich triggers the lin! – this

evidence assumes their uniqueness tric! :olden &$/< [A)igail, t+e ail5 Beast, /2?14, Reu)li&ans- !)ama7s !&ean

#rote&tion #lan Evi$en&e o8 6>merial #resi$en&57,*+tt-www.t+e$ail5)east.&omarti&les20140/2?reu)li&anso)amaso&eanrote&tionlanevi$en&eo8imerialresi$en&5.+tml 3

#resi$ent !)ama announ&e$ last week t+at +e lans to a$$ massive amounts o8territor5 to t+e Remote #a&i=& >slan$s National 'arine 'onument , a tra&t o8 o&ean

surroun$ing seven +ar$torea&+ islan$s an$ atolls in t+e sout+&entral #a&i=& !&ean. !)ama7s $e&ision wille;an$ t+e original reserve , &reate$ )5 eorge 3. Bus+ in t+e last $a5s o8 +isresi$en&5, )5 almost =ve times its original siHe. :+e e;an$e$ national monument

will uintule t+e num)er o8 seamounts , or un$erwater mountains, un$er 8e$eralrote&tion, an$ &lose almost L0,000 suare miles o8 o&ean to tuna =s+ing. "bamas decision has been hailed for its conservation im#act by scientists

an$ even )5 t+e New Sork :imes e$itorial )oar$. aret+ 3illiams, a resear&+er at &ris w+ostu$ies t+e &oral ree8s wit+in t+e reserve, +aile$ t+e e;an$e$ national monumentas rote&ting some of the most intact natural areas left on the #lanet. >t7s

almost imossi)le to =n$ anot+er e;amle o8 t+at, 8orests in&lu$e$,* 3illiams tol$ :+e ail5 Beast. :+ere are

alwa5s e;amles o8 $egra$ation, )ut t+ere are ver5 8ew e;amles o8 e&os5stems le8t t+at are t+at ristine.* Butlent5 o8 eole aren7t +a5 wit+ !)ama7s $e&ision, an$ t+e ne;t 8ew mont+sXinw+i&+ t+e e;a&t $etails o8 t+e e;ansion will )e u 8or reviewXma5 )e &ontentiousones. :+ese are t+e grous t+at +ave most at stake in oosing t+e e;an$e$Remote #a&i=& >slan$s reserve- 1. Reu)li&an lawmakers !)ama7s use o8 ane;e&utive or$er to esta)lis+ t+e reserve e;ansion angere$ Reu)li&ans ingovernment, w+o viewe$ it as an attemt to test t+e limits o8 3+ite (ouseaut+orit5. Dongressman o& (astings R3as+.F, t+e &+airman o8 t+e (ouse NaturalResour&es Dommittee, was ui&k to $enoun&e !)ama as an >merial #resi$ent*w+o is intent on taking unilateral a&tion, )e+in$ &lose$ $oors, to imose newregulations an$ la5ers o8 restri&tive re$tae.* B5 (astings7 stan$ar$s, anot+er &an$i$ate 8or an

imerial resi$en&5* woul$ )e eorge 3. Bus+, w+o &reate$ 8our marine national monuments $uring +is time inoO&e. B5 (astings7 stan$ar$s, t+en, anot+er &an$i$ate 8or an imerial resi$en&5* woul$ )e eorge 3. Bus+, w+o&reate$ 8our marine national monuments $uring +is time in oO&e, totaling some ?00,000 suare miles o8 rote&te$

o&ean. 2. :+e &ommer&ial =s+ing in$ustr5. Durrentl5, a)out ? er&ent o8 t+e ..7 tuna&at&+ in t+e western an$ sout+ern #a&i=& &omes 8rom t+e area now un$errote&tion , a&&or$ing to #ew D+arita)le :rusts. Dongressman (astings +as &riti&iHe$!)ama 8or &losing t+is area to tuna =s+ing, &autioning t+at t+is move will make t+e.. tuna @eet even less via)le , meaning t+at in t+e nottoo$istant 8uture all o8Ameri&a7s tuna will )e &aug+t )5 8oreign vessels.* #aul alHell, a senior s&ientistwit+ t+e 3estern an$ Dentral #a&i=& Regional Cis+eries 'anagement Doun&il,e&+oe$ t+is in$ustr5&entri& aroa&+. :+e islan$s [in t+e reserve alrea$5 +ave<0nauti&almile )oun$aries aroun$ t+em to rote&t all t+e &oral ree8 an$ s+allowwater +a)itats, so t+e57re more t+an a$euatel5 rote&te$ alrea$5,* alHell tol$ :+e ail5



Beast. But 8or migrator5 se&ies like tuna, +e argues, larges&ale o&ean reserves +avelittle &onservation value, sin&e tuna siml5 swim )e5on$ t+e )oun$aries o8 t+e&lose$ areas to )e &aug+t )5 ot+er @eets. :+e reserve +as no ma%or &onservation)ene=ts, will enaliHe .. =s+ermen , an$ t+ere7s no net gain,* alHell &ontinue$. >t7s

wort+ noting t+at #ew D+arita)le :rusts, w+i&+ works on o&ean &onservation issues, +as &on$emne$ t+e 3esternan$ Dentral #a&i=& Regional Cis+eries 'anagement Doun&il 8or its oor =s+eries ra&ti&es, w+i&+ it &laims are

+astening over=s+ing in t+e #a&i=& region. ?. Re&reational =s+ers. A8ter Bus+ =rst esta)lis+e$t+e Remote #a&i=& >slan$s reserve in 2009, t+e Ameri&an ort=s+ing Asso&iationsu&&ess8ull5 etitione$ 8or a re&reational =s+ing e;emtion wit+in t+e reserve. Nowt+e grou, w+i&+ reresents manu8a&turers o8 =s+ing ta&kle rat+er t+an sort=s+ermen t+emselves, lans to us+ 8or t+e e;emtion to al5 t+roug+out t+ee;an$e$ area . 3e )elieve in almost all instan&es 5ou &an still +ave marine &onservation an$ make sure t+at

5our =s+eries resour&es are in goo$, +ealt+5 &on$ition, an$ still allow some re&reational =s+ing to take la&e,*

'ike eonar$, a sokeserson 8or t+e AA, tol$ :+e ail5 Beast. :+e grou7s insisten&e ona re&reational =s+ing e;emtion is mostl5 a&a$emi&, sin&e t+e areas wit+in t+ee;an$e$ reserve are so remote as to )e unrea&+a)le to sort =s+ermen. 3illiams,w+o +as travele$ to t+e reserve reeate$l5 8or +is resear&+, sai$ t+at +e +as never

seen a re&reational =s+ing )oat t+ere. But eonar$ &laims t+at t+e reserve couldset a #recedent for the federal government closing more high$use areas tos#ort *shing . >t seems to )e a gro+ing trend t+at , w+en 5ou a$$ it unationall5, &an )e one o8 t+ose $eat+)5at+ousan$&uts issues, w+ere you

continue to close o5 areas one by one,* +e tol$ t+e Beast. Dumulativel5 t+at &an+ave a ma%or ima&t, 8rom a national stan$oint, 8or t+e entiret5 o8 t+e re&reational=s+ing an$ )oating in$ustr5.* !8 &ourse, marine reserves won7t kee =s+ermen 8romen%o5ing rote&te$ natural sa&esX%ust 8rom using t+e e;ensive =s+ing ta&kle t+att+e AA7s mem)ers sell.



Fishing -ndustry A



1NCU.S. *sheries are recovering no+#lumer 14 Bra$, enior E$itor at Qo;, (ow t+e stoe$ its =s+eries 8rom&ollasing,* <2014, +tt-www.vo;.&om2014<<//9120+owt+eusstoe$its=s+eries8rom&ollasingD(F

3e +ear a lot o8 grim stories a)out over=s+ing an$ t+e $e&line o8 =s+eries aroun$ t+e worl$. Blue=n tuna isvanis+ing. D+ilean sea )ass is $win$ling. #rett5 soon, it sometimes seems like, all t+at^ll )e le8t is t+e %ell5=s+. o

it^s wort+ +ig+lig+ting a &ountr5 t+at +as a&tuall5 $one a lot to &urtail over=s+ingan$ re)uil$ its =s+eries in t+e ast $e&a$e X t+e nite$ tates. Ba&k in t+e 190s an$ ^90s, man5

=s+eries in t+e were in serious trou)le. Cis+ oulations were $roing s+arl5. ome o8 New Englan$^s )estknown groun$=s+ sto&ks X in&lu$ing @oun$er, &o$, an$ +a$$o&k X +a$ &ollase$, &osting t+e region^s &oastal

&ommunities +un$re$s o8 millions o8 $ollars. But t+e i&ture +as imrove$ &onsi$era)l5 in t+e last$e&a$e, t+anks in art to stri&ter =s+ing regulations. ast week, t+e National !&eani& an$ Atmos+eri&

A$ministration N!AAF release$ its annual =s+eries u$ate 8or 201? X an$ t+e news was

en&ouraging. Ses, rogress +as )een uneven. A)out one=8t+ o8 assesse$ sto&ks are still over=s+e$. But

ont+e w+ole, =s+eries are stea$il5 re&overing.

)he #lan hurts a large #ortion of the *shing industry

Juliet Elerin 14 3riter 8or t+e 3as+ington #ost. #a&i=& =s+ing interests oose!)ama7s lan to e;an$ marine reserve.* June ?0, 2014.+tt-www.was+ingtonost.&om)logsostoliti&sw20140/?0a&i=&=s+inginterestsooseo)amaslantoe;an$marinereserveD(F

3+en #resi$ent !)ama announ&e$ two weeks ago +e inten$e$ to e;an$ 8e$eral rote&tions aroun$ seven islan$san$ atolls in t+e &entral #a&i=& !&ean, man5 environmentalists +aile$ t+e move as an imortant ste 8or

&onservation. But t+e main grou overseeing =s+ing oerators in (awaii an$ t+ree .. territories

in t+e region $e&lare$ 'on$a5 it ooses t+e roosal, on t+e groun$s t+at it woul$ +urt t+e.. =s+ing in$ustr5. :+e 3estern #a&i=& Regional Cis+er5 'anagement Doun&il&omose$ o8 =s+ing

in$ustr5 reresentatives as well as some state an$ 8e$eral oO&ials+els esta)lis+ =s+ing oli&5 8or )ot+&ommer&ial an$ re&reational oerators in (awaii as well as t+e territories o8 Ameri&an amoa an$ uam, an$ t+e

Dommonwealt+ o8 t+e Nort+ern 'ariana >slan$s. >n a statement release$ 'on$a5 a8ternoon, mem)ers o8 t+e

uasigovernmental agen&5 sai$ t+e5 woul$ oose an5 a$$itional limits on &ommer&ial =s+ing in t+e area.

#resi$ent eorge 3. Bus+ use$ +is e;e&utive aut+orit5 to esta)lis+ t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arine National'onument, w+i&+ now en&omasses almost L,000 suare miles, in 2009. !)ama is now &ontemlating wi$ening

t+ose )oun$aries to &over nearl5 L2,000 suare miles o8 8e$eral waters, w+i&+ woul$ )e oMlimits to =s+ing,energ5 e;loration an$ ot+er a&tivities. Rig+t now t+e $esignation e;ten$s <0 miles out 8rom s+oreW it &oul$ )ee;ten$e$ as 8ar out as 200 miles 8rom s+ore aroun$ ea&+ o8 t+e .. territories. :+e statement, w+i&+ was arove$

)5 t+e &oun&il^s e;e&utive &ommittee, argues t+is )roa$ e;ansion woul$ $erive Ameri&an=s+ing oerators o8 an imortant resour&e. .. =s+ermen, in&lu$ing t+ose in t+e #a&i=&,

alrea$5 a)i$e )5 t+e stri&test =s+ing regulations in t+e worl$, an$ t+is lan 8urt+erin+i)its t+eir e&onomi& survival, t+e5 wrote, a$$ing it woul$ 5iel$ 8ew, i8 an5, e&ologi&al )ene=ts 8rom

t+e restri&tions.



Strong *shing industry !ey to the global economy

5&k an$ umalia 10 An$rew, Cis+eries E&onomist at t+e niversit5 o8 Britis+Dolom)ia an$ Ras+i$, #ro8essor an$ ire&tor o8 t+e Cis+eries E&onomi&s Resear&+nit at BD Cis+eries Dentre. 'arine Cis+eries an$ t+e 3orl$ E&onom5.* 2010.+tt-we)&a&+e.googleuser&ontent.&omsear&+T&a&+e-:4/R8'o('J-www.ewtrusts.orguloa$e$CileswwwewtrustsorgNews#ressVReleases#rote&tingVo&eanVli8e#ewZ2<20!Z2<203orl$Z2<20E&onom5Z2<20C>NA.$8U&$T19U+lTenU&tT&lnkUglTusU&lientTsa8ariD(F

!DEAN D>ENDE ER>E :+e total e&onomi& ima&t o8 =s+eries is nearl5 t+ree times largert+an t+e lan$e$ value. #eole in &oastal &ountries $een$ on +ealt+5 =s+eries 8ort+eir liveli+oo$s. ross revenue glo)all5 8rom marine =s+eries +as )een estimate$ $uring t+e last $e&a$e

at"0 )illion to "< )illion\ annuall5. :+is estimate, +owever, re@e&ts onl5 t+e lan$e$, or market, value o8 t+e =s+as t+e5 =rst leave t+e )oat, an$ it un$erestimates t+e 8ull e&onomi& ima&t o8 =s+eries. A more a&&urate a&&ounting

o8 t+e value o8 t+e =s+ing in$ustr5 to t+e glo)al e&onom5 woul$ in&ororate t+e in$ire&t eMe&ts on relate$in$ustries t+at $een$ on wellmanage$ =s+eries. An$rew 5&k an$ +is &oaut+or, Ras+i$ umaila, o8 t+e niversit5o8 Britis+ Dolum)ia, estimate$ t+e total glo)al e&onomi& a&tivit5 suorte$ )5 marine =s+eries i.e., non

aua&ulture, o&ean =s+eriesF. :+e5 8oun$ t+at )5 &onsi$ering t+e e&onomi& ima&ts o8 =s+erieson ot+er se&tors su&+ as )oat manu8a&turing or &anning in$ustries, t+e total glo)alvalue is aro;imatel5 "240 )illion annuall5, as &al&ulate$ 8rom 200? $ataXnearl5 t+ree times t+e

lan$e$ value. :+e aut+ors &on&lu$e$ t+at &onsi$ering onl5 t+e $ire&t value o8 =s+eriesun$erestimates t+e true e&onomi& ima&t o8 marine =s+eries worl$wi$e . :+is #ew !&ean

&ien&e eries reort is a summar5 o8 t+e s&ientists7 =n$ings.

:lobal economic decline ris!s nuclear +ar.

7erlini 11

[Desare 'erlini, nonresi$ent senior 8ellow at t+e Denter on t+e nite$ tates an$ Euroe an$ &+airman o8 t+e Boar$o8 :rustees o8 t+e >talian >nstitute 8or >nternational AMairs >A>F in Rome. (e serve$ as >A> resi$ent 8rom 19L9 to2001. ntil 2009, +e also o&&uie$ t+e osition o8 e;e&utive vi&e &+airman o8 t+e Doun&il 8or t+e nite$ tates an$>tal5, w+i&+ +e &o8oun$e$ in 19?. (is areas o8 e;ertise in&lu$e transatlanti& relations, Euroean integration an$nu&lear nonroli8eration, wit+ arti&ular 8o&us on nu&lear s&ien&e an$ te&+nolog5. A #oste&ular 3orl$ !>-10.10000?9/??.2011.<L101< Arti&le Reuests- !r$er Rerints - Reuest #ermissions #u)lis+e$ in- %ournalurvival, Qolume <?, >ssue 2 Aril 2011 , ages 11L 1?0 #u)li&ation Creuen&5- / issues er 5ear ownloa$ #Cownloa$ #C ?<L KBF Qiew Relate$ Arti&les :o &ite t+is Arti&le- 'erlini, Desare ̂ A #oste&ular 3orl$^,urvival, <?-2, 11L G 1?0

:wo neatl5 oose$ s&enarios 8or t+e 8uture o8 t+e worl$ or$er illustrate t+e range o8

ossi)ilities, al)eit at t+e risk o8 oversimli=&ation. :+e =rst s&enario entails t+e remature &rum)ling o8 t+e ost3est+alian

s5stem. !ne or more o8 t+e a&ute tensions aarent to$a5 evolves into an oen an$

tra$itional &on@i&t )etween states, er+as even involving t+e use o8 nu&lear weaons. :+e &risis mig+t )e triggere$ )5 a &ollase o8 t+e glo)al e&onomi& an$ =nan&ials5stem, t+e vulnera)ilit5 o8 w+i&+ we +ave %ust e;erien&e$, an$ t+e rose&t o8 a se&on$ reat

eression, wit+ &onseuen&es 8or ea&e an$ $emo&ra&5 similar to t+ose o8 t+e =rst . 3+atever t+e

trigger, t+e unlimite$ e;er&ise o8 national sovereignt5, e;&lusive sel8interest an$ re%e&tion o8outsi$e inter8eren&e woul$ likel5 )e amli=e$, emt5ing, er+as entirel5, t+e +al88ull glass o8



multilateralism, in&lu$ing t+e N an$ t+e Euroean nion. 'an5 o8 t+e more likel5 &on@i&ts, su&+ as )etween >srael an$ >ran or>n$ia an$ #akistan, +ave otential religious $imensions. +ort o8 war, tensions su&+ as t+ose relate$ to immigration mig+t )e&omeun)eara)le. Camiliar issues o8 &ree$ an$ i$entit5 &oul$ )e e;a&er)ate$. !ne wa5 or anot+er, t+e se&ular rational aroa&+ woul$ )esi$estee$ )5 a return to t+eo&rati& a)solutes, &ometing or &onverging wit+ se&ular a)solutes su&+ as un)ri$le$ nationalism.



/NC UniquenessFish s#ecies once decimated by over*shing are no+ rebuilding$

current management solves

%and+er! 1< [2214, Brian (an$werk is a regular &ontri)utor 8or

National eogra+i&, !n&e e&imate$ .. Cis+ to&ks En%o5 BigBoun&e Ba&k,* +tt-news.nationalgeogra+i&.&omnews201?0?1?0?2/=s+

sto&ksre)oun$=s+eriesmanagement, (R

:wot+ir$s o8 t+e &losel5 monitore$ . . =s+ se&ies on&e $evastate$ )5over=s+ing +ave )oun&e$ )a&k in a )ig wa5 t+anks to management lansinstitute$ 10 to 1< 5ears ago, a new stu$5 sa5s. An$ =s+ aren^t t+e onl5 ones&ele)rating. Re&overing oulations &an mean more revenue an$ %o)s 8orsome =s+ermenX)ut un8ortunatel5 su&&ess +asn^t )een universal. Aut+ors o8 anew Natural Resour&es e8ense Doun&il reort sai$ t+e results rove t+at&riti&all5 over=s+e$ se&ies &an )e re)uilt, even 8rom ver5 low levels, w+en

'ot+er Nature is given a &+an&e to re&over. :+at^s goo$ news in a worl$ w+ereramant over=s+ing is a &riti&al &on&ern. :+is $emonstrates t+at w+en wetra&e t+e +istori& ar&+ o8 t+ese =s+eries in w+i&+ re)uil$ing reuirements wereut in la&e 1< 5ears ago, we see real ositive news. 3e see oulations t+atwere $elete$ or in $e&line turne$ aroun$ an$ re)uilt or well on t+eir wa5 tore)uil$ing, sai$ rin&ial aut+or Bra$ ewell. >t^s not 100 er&ent. >t^s twot+ir$s, so it^s not un)ri$le$ goo$ news )ut it $oes s+ow t+e eMe&tiveness o8 alaw t+at +as +a$ its s+are o8 &ontrovers5, +e a$$e$. :+e stu$5 use$ in$et+sto&k assessments an$ ot+er $ata 8rom N!AA^s National 'arine Cis+erieservi&e to &+art t+e rogress o8 sto&ks manage$ un$er t+e 'agnusontevensCis+er5 Donservation an$ 'anagement A&t. :+at law was revame$ )5

Dongress in 199/, in an attemt to a$$ress lunging =s+ oulations aroun$Ameri&a^s &oastlines, man$ating t+at sto&ks )e re)uilt wit+in a $e&a$e somewere grante$ e;&etionsF. :+e NRD reort &+arts rogress 8or t+e 44 sto&kst+at +ave suO&ient oulation an$ &at&+ $ata un$er t+e a&t an$ 8oun$ nearl5twot+ir$s, some 2 sto&ks, +ave now )een $esignate$ as 8ull5 re)uilt or as+aving ma$e signi=&ant rogress towar$ sustaina)le oulations. :+e stu$5$oesn^t in&lu$e se&ies not manage$ un$er 'agnusontevens, t+ose 8orw+i&+ re&ent sto&k assessments aren^t availa)le, or t+ose =s+e$internationall5.

Pa+ enforcement is causing de#leted stoc!s to recover in the

status quo.Dines 1< [?1<1?, 'i&+ael 3ines +as a gra$uate $egree in

%ournalism 8rom Dolum)ia niversit5 an$ is a New Sork :imesstaMwriter )ase$ in Be%ing, Cis+ #oulations in t+e nite$ tatesRe)oun$,* +tt-www.n5times.&om201?0?1/s&ien&eeart+=s+oulationsin

usre)oun$sin&e199/&at&+limitslaw.+tml, (R

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/03/130326-fish-stocks-rebound-fisheries-management/


http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-overfishing/

http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/files/rebuilding-fisheries-report.pdf


http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/bsewell/report_federal_law_is_recoveri.html

http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/


http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/01/23/the-bottom-line-historic-anniversary-for-fishing-in-americas-oceans/


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/16/science/earth/fish-populations-in-us-rebound-since-1996-catch-limits-law.html









http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/bsewell/report_federal_law_is_recoveri.html









'an5 &ommer&ial =s+ing sto&ks oM t+e nite$ tates &oast t+at were $elete$)5 $e&a$es o8 over=s+ing are returning to a)un$an&e, t+anks largel5 to a 199/law t+at eMe&tivel5 or$ere$ limits on &at&+es until t+e =s+ oulations +a$re)oun$e$, a newl5 release$ anal5sis o8 8e$eral $ata on =s+ oulationsstates. :+e anal5sis, )5 t+e Natural Resour&es e8ense Doun&il, &on&lu$es t+at

21 o8 44 se&ies t+at it stu$ie$ +ave met re)uil$ing targets an$ L ot+ers +avema$e signi=&ant rogress, in&reasing t+eir oulations )5 at least 2< er&ent.i;teen +ave ma$e less or no rogress, t+e reort state$, in&lu$ing 10 se&iesoM t+e New Englan$ &oast, most o8 t+em oular )ottom$welling =s+ like &o$ an$ @oun$er. >n +al8 o8 t+ose &ases, t+e =s+ oulations +a$ grown )5 moret+an 2< er&ent )ut were still )eing over=s+e$. All +ave )een manage$ un$ert+e 199/ law, t+e 'agnusontevens Cis+er5 Donservation an$ 'anagementA&t, w+i&+ sets a 105ear target 8or re)uil$ing ea&+ se&ies. Bra$ ewell, alaw5er 8or t+e resour&es grou an$ t+e main aut+or o8 t+e anal5sis, sai$ t+euti&k in =s+ oulations was ese&iall5 imressive in lig+t o8 w+at +e &alle$ a$ismal re&or$ in most ot+er arts o8 t+e worl$. 3+en 5ou look at t+eoulation tra%e&tories o8 $oHens an$ $oHens o8 sto&ks, 5ou see 79/ as a realwaters+e$,* +e sai$. Sou see t+is &ause an$ eMe&t )etween imlementing t+elaw an$ t+e uwar$ oulation tra%e&tor5.*

http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/rebuilding-fisheries.asp

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/cod_fish/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier

http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/magact/


http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/rebuilding-fisheries.asp

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/cod_fish/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier





/NC ) Catch SharesCatch shares dont solve the industry$ if anything they hurt it

C 2014 aving ea8oo$, N!AA Cis+eries Releases Cis+eries E&onomi&s o8 t+e

.. 2012 an$ tatus o8 t+e to&ks 201? Reorts.* Aril 29, 2014.+tt-www.savingsea8oo$.org=s+ingin$ustr5alertsnoaa=s+eriesreleases=s+eriese&onomi&so8t+eu.s.2012an$statuso8t+esto&ks201?re2.+tmlD(F

3A(>N:!N aving ea8oo$F Aril 29, 2014 :o$a5, N!AA Cis+eries release$ t+e 2012 e$ition o8 its annuale&onomi& reort on t+e state o8 .. =s+eries, Cis+eries E&onomi&s o8 t+e .. 2012, alongsi$e t+e 201? e$ition o8its annual tatus o8 t+e to&ks. A&&or$ing to N!AA, t+e two reorts s+ow strong e&onomi& gains 8rom =s+ing,

&ontinue$ imrovement in =s+ sto&ks. (owever, as man5 in New Englan$ alrea$5 know, growt+ an$imrovement +aven^t )een 8elt ever5w+ere. tri&t &at&+ limits an$ se&tor management

+ave &ontri)ute$ to a $e&line in t+e region^s working water8ronts. N!AA^s e&onomi& reort states,

:+e ke5 er8orman&e in$i&ators o8 [t+e Nort+east 'ultise&ies e&tors or Dat&+ +are rogram

s+ow t+at sin&e imlementation 8rom 2010 t+roug+ 2011, total revenue, uota an$ lan$ings o8 groun$=s+

$e&rease$ w+ile total revenue er a&tive vessel an$ total revenue er tri in&rease$.





(awaiians 2 were tol$ t+e5 &oul$ &ontinue tra$itional =s+ing t+ere. (owever, on&et+e monument was esta)lis+e$, =s+ermen were ro+i)ite$ 8rom )ringing t+eir &at&++ome to t+eir 8amilies an$ &ommunit5, as was &ustomar5. 3+en t+e 'arianas

:ren&+ 'arine 'onument was &reate$, romises su&+ as millions o8 $ollars inrevenue, a visitors7 &enter an$ &omanagement romise$ )5 t+e #ew Environment

rou an$ James Donnaug+ton 8rom t+e 3+ite (ouse7s Doun&il on EnvironmentalYualit5 were le8t un=lle$. :+e &ommer&ial =s+ing in$ustr5 oerating in t+e EE] aroun$ t+e #a&i=& >slan$s is alrea$5 stri&tl5 regulate$ )5 8e$eral an$international measures ranging 8rom restri&tions on gear t5es to allowa)lelo&ations. !nl5 two =s+ sto&ks are over=s+e$. :+e =rst is t+e groun$ seamountsto&k at (an&o&k eamount, w+i&+ was $elete$ )5 8oreign =s+ing rior toesta)lis+ment o8 t+e EE] an$ w+i&+ is un$er a moratorium. :+e se&on$over=s+e$ sto&k was announ&e$ %ust t+is 5ear, t+e 3est Dentral Nort+ #a&i=&strie$ marlin, w+i&+ is +ig+l5 migrator5 an$ su)%e&t to international =s+er5management. ikewise, t+ere is onl5 one sto&k e;erien&ing over=s+in g in watersaroun$ t+e #a&i=& >slan$s, t+e )ige5e tuna, w+i&+ is also +ig+l5 migrator5 an$su)%e&t to international management measures. :+e over=s+e$* $esignationrelates to t+e status o8 t+e sto&k. !ver=s+ing in$i&ates t+at a =s+er5 un$er itse;isting &at&+ an$ eMort is unsustaina)le over t+e longterm, an$ &oul$ lea$ to anover=s+e$ sto&k. iven t+e +ig+l5 migrator5 nature o8 t+e sto&ks an$ internationalnature o8 t+ese =s+eries an$ t+e management o8 t+em, 8urt+er re$u&tions on =s+ing oortunities in waters are unne&essar5 an$ will onl5 &ause +arm to ournation. :+e e;isting #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arine National 'onument en&omassesLL,020 suare miles 199,<00 km2F o8 waters aroun$ Kingman Ree8, #alm5raAtoll, (owlan$ >slan$, Baker >slan$, Jarvis >slan$, Jo+nston Atoll an$ 3ake >slan$.

:+ese are t+e waters lo&ate$ 0<0 nauti&al miles nmF 8rom s+ore. At (owlan$>slan$, Baker >slan$, Jarvis >slan$, #alm5ra Atoll, an$ Kingman Ree8 t+e terrestrialareas, ree8s an$ waters out to 12 nauti&al miles 22 kmW 14 miF ra$iusF are 8urt+errote&te$ as art o8 t+e National 3il$li8e Re8uge 5stem. Doral ree8s, nears+ore+a)itats an$ $eewater re&ious &orals are well rote&te$ t+roug+ t+ese$esignations. Dommer&ial =s+ing is )anne$, an$ re&reational =s+ing is allowe$ onl5at #alm5ra, oerate$ )5 t+e National 3il$li8e Re8uge in artners+i wit+ :+e NatureDonservan&5. Dommer&ial =s+ing )5 =s+ermen is t+e onl5 e;isting a&tivit5 t+atwoul$ )e aMe&te$ )5 t+e monument e;ansion. Coreign =s+ing vessels $o notoerate in t+e EE] aroun$ t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s nor 8or t+at matter in waters aroun$ an5 ot+er #a&i=& >slan$, in&lu$ing Ameri&an amoa, t+eDommonwealt+ o8 t+e Nort+ern 'ariana >slan$s D'N>F, uam an$ (awaii. Coreign=s+ing in t+ese waters woul$ reuire a #a&i=& >nsular Areas Cis+ing Agreement#>ACAF. in&e t+e &reation o8 t+e EE] in 19L/, no su&+ agreement +as )eenma$e. =s+ermen in t+e #a&i=& >slan$s +ave to o)serve notake areas in t+emonuments an$ a$$itional =s+ing areas &lose$ $ue to $esignate$ National 'arinean&tuar5 e;ansions, su&+ as Aunuu in Ameri&an amoa. :+e5 also +ave to&onten$ wit+ m5ria$ militar5 Hones in&lu$ing #earl < (ar)or an$ Barking an$s in(awaii, t+e nort+ern twot+ir$s o8 t+e islan$ o8 uam lus its sout+ern )anks, an$t+e waters aroun$ t+e islan$s o8 :inian an$ Carallon $e 'e$inilla, an$ aroun$reositioning vessel sites oM aian in t+e DN'>. #agan is )eing roose$ asanot+er militariHe$ &lose$ area. :+ese &lose$ areas, along wit+ state an$ territorial



marine rote&te$ areas an$ reserves, as well as =s+ing areas ina&&essi)le $ue to&urrents an$ in&lement weat+er islan$s t5i&all5 +ave &alm waters on one si$e an$roug+ waters on t+e ot+erF +ave resulte$ in =s+ermen )eing 8or&e$ into more$angerous waters an$ in&rease$ in%uries an$ $rownings o8 Ameri&an =s+ermen. B5&omarison, 8e$erall5 restri&te$ =s+ing Hones $eveloe$ t+roug+ a u)li& ro&ess

take into a&&ount sa8et5atsea an$ ot+er national stan$ar$s o8 t+e 'agnusontevens Cis+er5 Donservation an$ 'anagement A&t 'AF. 3it+ t+e 8our marinemonuments in la&e, t+e #a&i=& >slan$s a&&ount 8or 90 er&ent o8 t+e nation7smarine rote&te$ areas in siHe o8 area rote&te$ an$ 9< er&ent o8 t+e nation7smarine rote&te$ areas t+at $o not allow &ommer&ial =s+ing. >8 t+e #a&i=& Remote>slan$s 'onument were to )e e;an$e$ to t+e 200mile EE], /L er&ent o8 t+e EE] in t+e #a&i=& >slan$s woul$ )e &lose$ to &ommer&ial =s+ermen. >'#AD: !CE_#AN>!N iven t+ese 8a&tors, t+e e;ansion o8 t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arineNational 'onument will negativel5 ima&t t+e =s+ing e&onom5 )5 oversteing&urrentl5 manage$ sustaina)le management regimes, re$u&ing =s+eries&ometitiveness, an$ 5iel$ing 8ew, i8 an5, e&ologi&al )ene=ts 8rom t+e restri&tions.u&&ess8ul Cis+ing Regulations isregar$e$ &ommer&ial =s+eries oerating in waters aroun$ t+e #a&i=& >slan$s are alrea$5 well regulate$ an$ monitore$ toensure &onservation an$ management o8 =s+ sto&ks, +a)itat an$ t+e e&os5stem.Cis+ermen oerating in t+e waters aroun$ t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s in&lu$e longline vessels targeting )ige5e an$ 5ellow=n tuna 8or t+e 8res+ =s+ marketswit+ =s+ ket on i&e an$ not ut in 8reeHersF an$ urse seine vessels targetingski%a&k 8or tuna &anneries, su&+ as t+ose t+at make u t+e rimar5 e&onom5 o8Ameri&an amoa. :+ese =s+ing oerations are )ase$ in (awaii, Ameri&an amoaan$ Dali8ornia an$ are manage$ 8e$erall5 t+roug+ t+e 'A, among ot+er 8e$eralregulations. :+e5 also a)i$e )5 t+e international &onservation an$ managementmeasures o8 t+e 3estern an$ Dentral #a&i=& Cis+eries Dommission 3D#CDF an$ t+e>nterAmeri&an :roi&al :una Dommission, )ot+ o8 w+i&+ t+e nite$ tates is a treat5mem)er. :+ese vessels a$+ere to numerous regulations in&lu$ing, )ut notlimite$ to, annual &at&+ uotas, vessel monitoring s5stems, o)server &overage i.e.,o)servers la&e$ on)oar$ to monitor &at&+es an$ &omlian&e wit+ regulations,in&lu$ing otential rote&te$ se&ies intera&tionsF, rote&te$ se&ies works+os,man$ator5 rote&te$ se&ies release gear, restri&te$ vessel siHe o8 101 8eet 8orlongline vessels, an$ restri&te$ @eet siHe (awaii longline @eet &ae$ at 1/4 wit+a&tual siHe at a)out 140 vesselsF. >n t+e 3+ite (ouse7s ress release, t+e #resi$entro&laime$ t+e +ealt+ o8 our o&ean is un$er t+reat on multile 8ronts, 8romover=s+ing to &ar)on ollution.* E;an$ing t+e 'onument an$ restri&ting =s+ermen 8rom waters will not mitigate t+ese t+reats. =s+eries alrea$5oerate un$er annual &at&+ an$ eMort limits an$ numerous ot+er 8e$eral an$international regulations. Jo+n #o$esta, $es&ri)e$ )5 t+e 3as+ington #ost as t+eman )e+in$ #resi$ent !)ama7s new environmental us+* tol$ &on8erees at t+eDaitol (ill !&ean 3eek in 3as+ington, D on June 10, Be&ause o8 [t+e 'A['agnusontevens A&t re8ormsdwe +ave largel5 en$e$ over=s+ing in 8e$erall5manage$ waters an$ we7re re)uil$ing =s+ sto&ks at unre&e$ente$ rates in mu&+ o8 our &ountr5d> want to em+asiHe w+at a tremen$ous a&&omlis+ment t+at is d* vessels are +ig+l5 monitore$, stri&tl5 regulate$ an$ en8or&e$ )5 t+e Regional Cis+er5'anagement Doun&ils, National 'arine Cis+eries ervi&e an$ Doast uar$



DF. :+e waters aroun$ t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arine 'onument are euall5imortant to =s+ermen an$ to t+e nation. As note$ in t+e u)li&ation o8 t+eD7s #rote&ting Ameri&a7s Cis+eries, 3it+ its great $istan&e 8rom t+e mainlan$, itis eas5 to ignore issues t+at are se&i=& to t+e region.* 'an5 Ameri&ans areunaware t+at (onolulu &onsistentl5 ranks wit+in t+e to ten &ommer&ial =s+ing

orts in t+e )5 value lan$e$vi. :+e #resi$ent also a&knowle$ge$ t+at =s+eries management is en$ing over=s+ing an$ re)uil$ing =s+ sto&ks. imiting =s+ermen 8rom t+eir nation7s waters an$ $isregar$ing t+e se&ta&ular su&&ess o8man5 management measures alrea$5 )eing imlemente$ $oes not )est serve =s+ermen.

)he #lan hurts US *shers – gives greater advantage to foreign

*shers

D Council, &9<0

[3estern #a&i=& Regional Cis+er5 'anagement Doun&il, !)ama A$ministration7s#roose$ #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arine National 'onument E;ansion Betra5s

Cis+ermen, #la&es n8air Bur$en on #a&i=& >slan$s*, June ?0, 2014,+tt-www.w&oun&il.orgw&ontentuloa$s20140/C>NA3#RC'DRea&tionto#roose$#R>'N'.$8 , '

Cis+eries ose Coreign Dometitive A$vantage >n its ress release, t+e 3+ite(ouse a&knowle$ges t+at Ameri&ans all over t+e &ountr5 $een$ on t+e o&ean 8or8oo$, %o)s an$ re&reation,* )ut seaks little o8 t+e 8oreign tra$e $imensions o8 t+isissue. A)out 90 er&ent o8 t+e sea8oo$ &onsume$ in t+e nite$ tates is imorte$8rom 8oreign &ountries an$ results in a nearl5 "11 )illion sea8oo$ tra$e $e=&it.Banning =s+ermen 8rom nearl5 a million suare miles o8 waters will onl5e;a&er)ate t+is situation , keeing Ameri&ans 8rom $omesti&all5 ro$u&e$ sea8oo$

an$ %o)s. :+e urseseine @eet is &urrentl5 8a&ing re&or$ li&ense 8ees un$er t+eout+ #a&i=& :una :reat5, w+i&+ is negotiate$ )5 t+e eartment o8 tate. :+ismeans t+at t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s oMer nee$e$, a&&essi)le =s+ing areas,ese&iall5 8or seiners t+at oerate out o8 Ameri&an amoa an$ re$ominatel5 int+e &entral #a&i=&. Ameri&an amoa7s limite$ e&onom5 is +ig+l5 $een$ent on t+etuna ro&essing in$ustr5, an$ an5 negative ima&ts to t+e tuna vessels t+atoerate out o8 Ameri&an amoa will likewise +ave a negative ima&t on t+eAmeri&an amoa e&onom5. :+e EE] aroun$ #alm5ra outsi$e o8 <0 nm is =s+e$)5 t+e (awaiian longline @eet. >t is an imortant area 8or (awaiian =s+ing vesselstargeting )ige5e tuna wit+out &ometition 8rom 8oreign @eets. As mu&+ as 12er&ent o8 t+e annual (awaiian longline &at&+ +as )een ro$u&e$ out o8 t+e EE]

aroun$ #alm5ra, a&&or$ing to t+e National 'arine Cis+eries ervi&e. :+ere issigni=&ant =s+ing eMort )5 t+e (awaiian longline @eet aroun$ Jo+nston as well.Bige5e tuna sto&ks in t+e 3estern an$ Dentral #a&i=& !&ean are re$i&te$ to s+i8teastwar$ as a result o8 &limate &+ange ima&tsvii. longline =s+ermen will )euna)le to a&&ess )ige5e sto&ks in t+e euatorial #a&i=& Remote >slan$s waters i8t+ese are &omletel5 &lose$ to =s+ing. >t imoses a $isa$vantage relative to ot+er#a&i=& >slan$ nations t+at will kee t+eir EE]s oen to =s+ing. Be&ause =s+ingvessels are euie$ wit+ vessel monitoring s5stems Q'sF an$ &losel5 monitore$



)5 t+e National 'arine Cis+eries ervi&e an$ nite$ tates Doast uar$, amonument e;ansion woul$ ro+i)it t+eir entr5 into waters w+ile 8oreignvessels, w+i&+ are not reuire$ to +ave Q' on t+e +ig+ seas, &oul$ illegall5 oeratein our waters. 3it+out t+e resen&e o8 =s+ing vessels to a&t as sentinels, illegal8oreign =s+ing is likel5 to in&reaseviii. u&+ a s&enario is a )etra5al to =s+ermen

in t+e #a&i=& >slan$s. (awaiian longline =s+ermen will not )e allowe$ to =s+ t+e EE] aroun$ t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s. (owever, 8oreign an$ $omesti& urseseine vessels &an =s+ t+ese waters in$ire&tl5 )5 $elo5ing =s+ aggregation $evi&esCAF, w+i&+ are not reuire$ to )e marke$. D+arles a;)oe&k, D+air o8 t+e&ienti=& an$ tatisti&al Dommittee t+at a$vises t+e 3estern #a&i=& RegionalCis+eries 'anagement Doun&il 3#RC'DF, notes t+at su&+ 8oreign =s+ermen &an$elo5 CA on t+e +ig+ seas a$%a&ent to t+e #R>A EE]s, wit+ t+e intention t+att+ese CA will $ri8t t+roug+ t+e #R>A EE]s a&&umulating =s+ as t+e5 go, to )e=s+e$ in t+e +ig+ seas on t+e ot+er si$e.

)he #lan devastates the *shing industry des#ite decreasingtrends of over*shing

D Council, &9<0

[3estern #a&i=& Regional Cis+er5 'anagement Doun&il, #ress Release G !)amaA$ministration7s #roose$ #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arine National 'onumentE;ansion Betra5s Cis+ermen, #la&es n8air Bur$en on #a&i=& >slan$s*, June?0, 2014, +tt-www.w&oun&il.orgaut+orw&oun&il, '

:+e voting mem)ers o8 t+e 3estern #a&i=& Regional Cis+er5 'anagement Doun&il3#RC'DF 8rom t+e tate o8 (awaii, :erritories o8 Ameri&an amoa an$ uam an$t+e Dommonwealt+ o8 t+e Nort+ern 'ariana >slan$s +ave anal5He$ t+e !)amaA$ministration7s newl5 announ&e$ lan to e;an$ t+e #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arineNational 'onument. :+e5 +ave $etermine$ t+at it woul$ rovi$e no a$$e$&onservation )ene=t to marine resour&es, )ut will e&onomi&all5 +arm t+e area7s=s+ermen an$ t+ose reliant on #a&i=& marine resour&es. Noting t+at t+e #resi$ent+imsel8 +as $e&lare$ t+at t+e nite$ tates +as largel5 en$e$ over=s+ing in8e$erall5 manage$ waters,* t+e Doun&il mem)ers are urging t+e A$ministration to&ontinue allowing =s+ermen into t+ese areas. A&&or$ing to t+e 3#RC'D, t+eA$ministration 8aile$ to &onsult t+e 3#RC'D a)out t+e true e&onomi& an$environmental ima&ts o8 its lan to e;an$ t+e 'onument. :+e 3#RC'D alsore&ommen$s mo$i=&ations to t+e Antiuities A&t to revent similar su&+ unilateral$e&larations in t+e 8uture, w+i&+ overri$e e;isting =s+eries management statutes,

su&+ as t+e 'agnusonteven Cis+er5 Donservation an$ 'anagement A&t. :+e June1L announ&ement, ma$e at t+e !ur !&eans Don8eren&e +oste$ at t+e tateeartment, woul$ enlarge t+e &urrent #a&i=& Remote >slan$s 'arine National'onumentXesta)lis+e$ )5 #resi$ent Bus+ in 2009Xto en&omass t+e 8ull 200nauti&almile E;&lusive E&onomi& ]one o8 seven #a&i=& >slan$ #ossessions.(owever, t+e Doun&il &ounters in its reort t+at t+is e;ansion will ultimatel5 )eineMe&tive in rea&+ing t+e !)ama A$ministration7s state$ goal o8 &om)attingt+reats to t+e o&ean7s +ealt+, like over=s+ing an$ o&ean a&i$i=&ation &ause$ )5

http://www.wpcouncil.org/author/wpcouncil/

http://www.wpcouncil.org/author/wpcouncil/





3e^re going to +ave to review +ow we $o our )usiness, +ow we go 8orwar$, +esai$. >t^s not a goo$ $a5 8or us, > &an^t +i$e 8rom t+at. 3e^re going to lose a&&essto a ver5 )enign =s+er5 t+at we &an sul5 lo&al 8res+ ro$u&t to t+e &ommunit5.:+at^s going to )e taken awa5 not %ust 8rom us, it^s going to )e taken awa5 8romt+e &ommunit5. ean ogan 8rom t+e Australian 'arine Allian&e sai$ t+e lan

woul$ +urt &ommer&ial =s+ers. >t^s )asi&all5 sa5ing to Australians 5ou &annot )etruste$ to )e goo$ &usto$ians o8 t+e environment, +e sai$. #ro8essional rawn=s+ing grous sa5s t+e marine ark reserves will +ave a severe ima&t on t+erawn in$ustr5 in nort+ern Australia. Austral Cis+eries general manager An$5#ren$ergast sa5s t+e marine reserves, arti&ularl5 in t+e ul8 o8 Darentaria, wille;&lu$e t+em 8rom t+eir most imortant =s+ing groun$s 8or :iger an$ Bananarawns. (e sa5s t+e $e&ision &oul$ eMe&tivel5 wie out Australia^s 8reerange rawn=s+ing in$ustr5. :+ere is a tiing oint, +e sai$. >8 we &an^t get a&&ess to t+eseareas, t+at &oul$ eMe&tivel5 ut us out o8 )usiness in time. :+e AmateurCis+erman^s Asso&iation o8 t+e Nort+ern :erritor5 sa5s t+e ark network will aMe&t&ommer&ial =s+eries more t+an re&reational anglers.

)he #lan hurts US *shers +hile ma!ing US +aters moresusce#tible to foreign *shers

%a+aii Free ress, &91K

[Re (astings- !)ama^s !&ean ]oning 3ill +ut own :una Cis+er5*, June 1L,2014, +tt-www.+awaii8reeress.&omArti&les'ainta)i$</>129Re(astings!)amas!&ean]oning3ill+utown:unaCis+er5.as; , '

3A(>N:!N, .D., June 1L, 2014 (ouse Natural Resour&es Dommittee D+airmano& (astings 3A04F release$ t+e 8ollowing statement regar$ing #resi$ent!)ama7s announ&ement o8 overrea&+ing E;e&utive a&tion to unilaterall5 lo&ku

+uge ortions o8 t+e #a&i=& !&ean- Cor 5ears t+e !)ama A$ministration +ast+reatene$ to imose o&ean Honing to s+ut $own our o&eans, an$ to$a5 t+e#resi$ent is making goo$ on t+at t+reat. :+is is 5et anot+er e;amle o8 +ow an>merial #resi$ent is intent on taking unilateral a&tion, )e+in$ &lose$ $oors, toimose new regulations an$ la5ers o8 restri&tive re$tae. !&eans, like our 8e$erallan$s, are inten$e$ to )e multileuse an$ oen 8or a wi$e range o8 e&onomi&a&tivities t+at in&lu$es =s+ing, re&reation, &onservation, an$ energ5 ro$u&tion. >taears t+is A$ministration will use w+atever aut+orities G real or ma$eu G to&lose our o&ean an$ &oastal areas wit+ )latant $isregar$ 8or ossi)le e&onomi&&onseuen&es. :+is A$ministration is &reating an unworka)le at&+work o8management regimes t+at will +urt our e&onom5 an$ 8urt+er strain our en8or&ement

&aa)ilities. :+e tate eartment %ust &omlete$ negotiating several s&ien&e)ase$ international =s+er5 management agreements in t+e #a&i=& an$ is workingon &+anges to an e;isting international agreement to allow .. tuna )oats to +avea&&ess to waters in t+e out+ #a&i=&. :+is announ&ement un$er&uts all o8 t+at workan$ will likel5 make t+e .. tuna @eet even less via)le, meaning in t+e nottoo$istant 8uture all o8 Ameri&a7s tuna will )e &aug+t )5 8oreign vessels.* ink- #rinta)le#C o8 t+is o&ument \ \ \ \ \ &ientist- !)ama #lan +as no &onservation )ene=tot+er t+an to enaliHe =s+ermen (NN- E;an$ing t+e marine reserve out

http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/ArticlesMain/tabid/56/ID/12898/Rep-Hastings-Obamas-Ocean-Zoning-Will-Shut-Down-Tuna-Fishery.aspx






3estern woul$ mean in&lu$ing areas aroun$ t+e $eeest oint o8 t+e o&ean, t+e'arianas :ren&+, near t+e islan$ o8 uam. But it woul$ also us+ into areas w+ere(awaii^s long liners an$ ot+er .. =s+ermen =s+ near Jo+nston atoll, #alm5ra >slan$as well as Jarvis an$ (ollan$. >t +as no &onservation )ene=t ot+er t+an toenaliHe.., =s+ermen,* sai$ #aul alHelle, senior s&ientist 8or t+e 3estern #a&i=&

Regional Cis+er5 'anagement Doun&il. &ientists o8 t+e &oun&il met in (onolulu :ues$a5. >t was a relu$e to ne;t week^s 8ull &oun&il meeting w+i&+ will in&lu$emem)ers 8rom uam an$ amoa. >t is e;e&te$ to take a strong osition against t+emarine reserve lan. 'em)ers argue t+at e;an$ing t+e no=s+ing Hone is notonl5 )a$ 8or )usinesss, )ut will not +el tuna an$ s+arks t+at migrate. :+ere arealrea$5 <0 nauti&almile &losures aroun$ t+ose areas. >t7s &alle$ art o8 t+e marinenational monument. :+e5 are alrea$5 rote&ting t+e &oral ree8s, all t+e near s+ore=s+, re&ious &orals, &oral ree8 =s+ an$ s+arks us+ing out to t+e 200 nauti&almiles. >t will +ave no ma%or &onservation )ene=t, sai$ alHelle. :+e &oun&il )elievest+e move &oul$ also leave mu&+ o8 t+e rote&te$ areas oen to =s+ing 8rom 8oreign=s+ers w+o are alrea$5 )anne$ 8rom .. waters. Cewer .. =s+ermen in t+e area,means 8ewer e5es on t+e water. :+e5 &an let t+e government know t+e5 +ave seen)oats making en&roa&+ments an$ i8 5ou take t+ose awa5 w+at7s to sto 8oreigners8rom =s+ing, sai$ alHelle. :+e &on&ern is 8or t+e areas aroun$ t+e nation o8Kiri)as, w+i&+ ermits Euroean =s+ers to troll in t+eir waters. > suse&t t+ere will)e a great temtation to %ust o into our area, )e&ause t+e5 know t+e5 will )e no=s+ing vessels )e t+ere to see t+em i8 t+e5 $o t+at, sai$ alHelle. :+e roosal&oul$ go into eMe&t as soon as t+is 5ear a8ter a &omment erio$, w+i&+ +as t+e ..=s+ers worrie$. alHell sai$ t+e move s+ows t+e oliti&al vunera)ilit5 o8 t+e region,wit+ onl5 t+e (awaii &ongressional $elegation an$ two nonvoting $elegates to&ongress reresenting uam an$ amoa.



/NC 3conomy -9PCis+ing in$ustr5 ke5 to t+e glo)al e&onom5

7SC 8$ 'arine tewar$s+i Doun&il, 200 :+e ea8oo$ E&onom5,* Jul5 2/t+,

Availa)le online at +tt-www.ms&.org+ealt+5o&eanst+eo&eansto$a5t+esea8oo$e&onom5, A&&esse$ L<14F

'illions o8 eole work in t+e sea8oo$ in$ustr5, &ontri)uting to lo&al, regional an$glo)al tra$e on a massive s&ale an$ maintaining liveli+oo$s, earnings an$emlo5ment. >t^s not %ust a)out =s+ing. ea8oo$relate$ %o)s in&lu$e ro&essing, a&king,transort, retail an$ restaurants. :+roug+ t+ese $iverse )usinesses, t+e sea8oo$e&onom5 generates =nan&ial se&urit5 8or in$ivi$uals an$ a valua)le sour&e o8 #. :+e value o8 t+e glo)al sea8oo$ in$ustr5 :+e e;ort value o8 worl$ tra$e in =s+ was "/?)illion in 200?, an$ is more t+an t+e &om)ine$ value o8 net e;orts o8 ri&e, &oMee,sugar an$ tea our&e- nite$ Nations Coo$ an$ Agri&ulture !rganiHation A)out 200 million liveli+oo$s$een$ $ire&tl5 or in$ire&tl5 on t+e =s+ing in$ustr5 our&e- nite$ Nations Environment #rogram

(al8 o8 t+e sea8oo$ tra$e$ worl$wi$e &omes 8rom $eveloing &ountries our&e- nite$ Nations Environment

#rogram Cis+ e;orts are a valua)le sour&e o8 8oreign e;&+ange 8or man5 $eveloing&ountries. lo)all5, $eveloing &ountries are net e;orters o8 =s+er5 ro$u&ts .our&e- nite$ Nations Coo$ an$ Agri&ulture !rganiHation

7oney in the *shing industry has a multi#lier e5ect

Scott >$ oren D. &ott, #resi$ent o8 oren D. &ott U Asso&iates, >n&., an

e&onomi& &onsulting =rm, revious eartment D+air o8 E&onomi&s at , 2004:(E ED!N!'>D >'#AD: !C REDREA:>!NA A:3A:ER C>(>N !N :(E!>>ANA ED!N!'S,* :+e Doastal Donservation Asso&iation o8 ouisiana, Aril2004, Availa)le online at

+tt-www.lorens&ottasso&iates.&omReorts>ma&to8altwaterCis+ing.$8 ,A&&esse$ L<14F

>n e&tion >>> we will e;amine t+e in$ire&t or multilier eMe&ts o8 t+e sen$ing t+at saltwater anglers um into t+e

ouisiana e&onom5. :o estimate t+e e&onomi& ima&t o8 saltwater =s+ing, t+ink o8 t+e tate

e&onom5 as a large e&onomi& on$. >nto t+is on$ a ro&k will )e $roe$ la)ele$

re&reational saltwater =s+ing*. :+is ro&k alone will make uite a slas+ , )e&ause o8 allt+e sen$ing )5 t+ese anglers, w+i&+ will )e $o&umente$ in e&tion >>. (owever, w+en t+at ro&k+its t+e on$, it sen$s out riles to t+e e$ge o8 t+e on$. :+is is t+e so&alle$multilier eMe&t*. :+is o&&urs )e&ause w+en anglers sen$ mone5 on, sa5 ro$s an$reels, at a sorting goo$s store, emlo5ees an$ owners o8 t+at store re&eivea$$itional, new in&ome. :+e5 will t+en sen$ t+is new mone5 at restaurants, &ar

$ealers+is, $eartment stores, gro&er5 stores, et&., &reating new in&omes at t+oseesta)lis+ments w+i&+ will &ause anot+er roun$ o8 new sen$ing, et&., et&. :+is ist+e so&alle$ multilier eMe&t o8 t+e angler7s sen$ing .

Cis+ing in$ustr5 ke5 to t+e e&onom5

University of @ritish Columbia 10$ niversit5 o8 Britis+ Dolum)ia, 2010lo)al =s+eries resear&+ =n$s romise an$ eril- 3+ile in$ustr5 &ontri)utes "240B

http://www.msc.org/healthy-oceans/the-oceans-today/the-seafood-economy


http://www.lorenscottassociates.com/Reports/ImpactofSaltwaterFishing.pdf



http://www.lorenscottassociates.com/Reports/ImpactofSaltwaterFishing.pdf





t+e e&onom5 ma5 )e un$erstate$ w+en &onsi$ering onl5 t+e $ire&t values o)taine$t+roug+ t+e usual met+o$ o8 national a&&ounts. :+e amount normall5 &ite$ w+en&onsi$ering t+e total ro$u&tion o8 t+e =s+eries se&tor re8erre$ to as ân$e$ Qalue^Xumaila

et al. 200LW 3illmann -t al. 2009F is t+e value o8 =s+ w+en t+e5 &+ange +an$s 8or t+e =rstlime a8ter leaving t+e )oat. :+is is t+e $ire&t e&onomi& value o8 =s+eries se&tor outut an$ is &onsi$ere$

us t+e starting oint 8or total e&onomi& ima&t in inutoutut anal5sis.

>t is onl5 in rare o&&asions t+at t+e value &+ain 8or =s+ en$s imme$iatel5 a8terlan$ing su&+ as in t+e &ase o8 su)sisten&e =s+ing, w+ere =s+ is usuall5 &aug+t 8or own

&onsumtion. Rat+er, =s+ are sol$ to markets w+ere t+e5 are again resol$ to &onsumersor an interme$iar5 will ur&+ase larger uantities 8or ro&essingW t+ese ro$u&ts willlater make t+eir wa5 to t+e $inner ta)le. Ea&+ time a =s+ &+anges +an$s, it is&om)ine$ wit+ ot+er goo$s, )e it tin 8or &anning or t+e management servi&es o8 someone involve$ in

retail $istri)ution. At ea&+ link in t+is value &+ain, a ortion o8 t+e value o8 outut 8rom ea&+se&tor &an )e tra&e$ )a&k to &ature =s+eries, wit+ t+is s+are $e&reasing t+e8urt+er $own t+e &+ain it goes. >n t+is wa5, we &an 8ollow a =s+ t+roug+ t+e &+ain o8ro$u&tion to reveal t+at a great $eal o8 e&onomi& a&tivit5 is suorte$ )5 rature=s+eries. u&+ e&onomi& ima&ts are re8erre$ to as t+e ^$ownstream eMe&ts ̂ o8

=s+eries an$ &an o&&ur in man5 se&tors ranging 8rom agri&ulture an$ 8orestr5t+roug+ to manu8a&turing an$ =nan&ial servi&es.

Fishing industry has a huge economic im#act

Ayc! and Sumaila 10$ An$rew J. 5&k, >n$een$ent resear&+er o8

e&onometri&s, )e+aviour e&onomi&s, an$ =s+eriesW . Ras+i$ umaila, #ro8essor o8!&ean U Cis+eries E&onomi&s, t+e niversit5 o8 Britis+ Dolum)ia, 2010 E&onomi&ima&t o8 o&ean =s+ oulations in t+e glo)al =s+er5,* Journal o8 Bioe&onomi&s,August 19t+, Availa)le online at +tt-$ownloa$.sringer.&omstati&$824?art

Z2<?A10.100LZ2<2Cs10101090?.$8aut+//T1404L</10?V4)<2ee22/)eL4&/29/8$e&<8a/L/9Ue;tT.$8 , A&&esse$ L<14F

>nutGoutut anal5sis is not a new &on&et in e&onomi&s an$ its use tra&es )a&k to t+e ver5 )eginnings o8uantitative e&onomi& met+o$s. (owever, t+e use o8 t+is te&+niue 8or t+e marine &ature =s+eries se&tor as

roose$ )5 t+is stu$5 is t+e =rst o8 its kin$. >t is aarent 8rom our anal5sis t+at w+en one a&&ounts 8ort+e total o8 $ire&t, in$ire&t an$ in$u&e$ e&onomi& a&tivit5, t+e 8ull ima&t o8 t+isse&tor is mu&+ greater t+an t+e value o8 &at&+ lan$e$ at t+e ort.3e use$ a glo)al $ata)ase o8 e&onomi& @ows to &onsi$er t+e $ire&t, in$ire&t, an$in$u&e$ eMe&t o8 &+anges in $eman$ 8or t+e outut 8rom marine &ature =s+eries aswell as its eMe&t on +ouse+ol$ in&ome. :+e results suggest t+at alt+oug+ t+e lan$e$ value

o8 glo)al =s+eries is large, &onsi$ering t+is value as t+e &ontri)ution o8 marine&ature =s+eries to worl$ outut un$erestimates t+e 8ull ima&t o8 t+is se&tor to t+eworl$ e&onom5 )5 a 8a&tor o8 a)out t+ree. Donsi$ering $ire&t, in$ire&t an$ in$u&e$ eMe&ts in t+e

=s+eries se&tor, we 8oun$ t+e total e&onomi& ima&t to )e a)out " 240 )illion er 5ear.Curt+ermore, t+e &ature =s+eries se&tor is estimate$ to ro$u&e more t+an " /?)illion er annum in +ouse+ol$ in&ome w+en $ire&t, in$ire&t an$ in$u&e$ eMe&ts are&onsi$ere$.

http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/243/art%253A10.1007%252Fs10818-010-9088-3.pdf?auth66=1404756103_848b52ee226be74c6296fdec5fa67869&ext=.pdf








Fishing is a critical industry for the US economy

Congressional S#ortsmens Foundation, <

['AR>NE #R!:ED:E AREA X A :+reat to Re&reational Cis+ing*,

+tt-a$vo&a&5.s+imano.&omu)lis+&ontenta$vo&a&5enusin$e;governmentVaM airsmarineVrote&te$Vareas.$ownloa$.#ar?0ars5s0002$ownloa$Cile.+tmlAZ20:+reatZ20toZ20Re&reationalZ20Cis+ing.$8 , '

:+e E&onomi& >mortan&e o8 Re&reational Cis+ing :+e +uge e&onomi& ima&t o8re&reational =s+ing in t+e is 8elt in ever5 state. Ameri&a7s nearl5 40 millionanglers sen$ over "4< )illion er 5ear on =s+ing euiment , transortation,lo$ging an$ ot+er e;enses asso&iate$ wit+ t+eir sort G t+at7s ten times t+eamount o8 all &ommer&ial sea8oo$ lan$ings. 3it+ a total annual e&onomi& ima&to8 "12< )illion , re&reational =s+ing suorts over one million %o)s an$ generates"?4 )illion in wages an$ "1/ )illion in ta; revenues ea&+ 5ear. :+e Ameri&an mo$el

o8 =s+eries an$ wil$li8eF management is 8un$e$ t+roug+ =s+ing li&ense sales an$e;&ise ta;es on =s+ing euiment an$ motor)oat 8uel. Nearl5 "900million o8anglers7 an$ )oaters7 $ollars are rovi$e$ to t+e states ea&+ 5ear 8or lo&al&onservation an$ re&reation. :+is imortant s5stem must )e rote&te$ to ensure t+e8un$ing 8or =s+eries &onservation is maintaine$. >ts ver5 su&&ess $een$s on anglerarti&iation an$ interest t+e oortunit5 to go =s+ing. Dlosing areas tore&reational =s+ing +urts )ot+ t+e lo&al an$ national e&onomies an$ &riles=s+eries management.

Cis+ing in$ustr5 ke5 to t+e glo)al e&onom5 an$ +ealt+

)he :uardian 10$ :+e uar$ian, 2010 aving glo)al =s+ sto&ks woul$ &ost20 million %o)s, sa5s N,* E$ #ilkington, 'a5 1Lt+, Availa)le online at+tt-www.t+eguar$ian.&omenvironment2010ma51Lsaving=s+sto&ks&ost%o)s,A&&esse$ L<14F

At stake is not %ust t+e )io$iversit5 o8 t+e o&eans, )ut a su)stantial &+unk o8 t+eglo)al e&onom5 an$ t+e liveli+oo$s t+at $een$ on it . :+e N estimates t+ere are a)out?< million eole $ire&tl5 emlo5e$ in =s+ing, w+i&+ translates to a)out 120 millionin&lu$ing t+eir +ouse+ol$s an$ <00 million G or a)out Z o8 glo)al oulation G taking intoa&&ount in$ire&t )usinesses su&+ as a&kaging, 8reeHing an$ transort.>t is also a +uge +ealt+ issue, as =s+ rovi$es t+e main sour&e o8 animal rotein 8or1 )illion o8 t+e worl$^s oorest eole .

http://advocacy.shimano.com/publish/content/advocacy/en/us/index/government_affairs/marine_protected_areas.download.-Par30parsys-0002-downloadFile.html/A%20Threat%20to%20Recreational%20Fishing.pdf



http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/may/17/saving-fish-stocks-cost-jobs




http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/may/17/saving-fish-stocks-cost-jobs



/NC Food Security -9PFishing industry vital to food security#aul5 an$ wartH 0 3il8 wartH, #+ Dan$i$ate at t+e niversit5 o8 Britis+Dolum)ia, an$ aniel #aul5, #ro8essor at t+e niversit5 o8 Britis+ Dolum)ia Cis+eriesDenter, 3+o7s Eating All t+e Cis+ :+e Coo$ e&urit5 Rationale 8or DullingDeta&eans,* /2?0+tt-www.ewtrusts.orguloa$e$CileswwwewtrustsorgReorts#rote&tingVo&ean

Vli8e$anielVaul5VaerViw&V200V$8V$o&.$8,

Alt+oug+ &ountries an$ $een$ent territories o8 t+e out+ #a&i=& +ave ver5 small oulations, t+eir EE]s

reresent a +uge area o8 t+e #a&i=& !&ean. Not surrisingl5, t+e issue o8 =s+eries are o8 vital 8oo$se&urit5 an$ e&onomi& interest 8or t+e &ountries in t+e region, ese&iall5 8or t+ose wit+limite$ lan$)ase$ resour&es. >n 2000, t+e EE]s o8 t+e out+ #a&i=& islan$ states5iel$e$ 42/,000 tonnes o8 =s+, over 200,000 tonnes o8 w+i&+ were ski%a&ks$estine$ 8or non$omesti& &onsumtion. !ur anal5sis s+ows t+at t+e $omesti& market a&&ounts 8or

less t+an <Z o8 =s+ &aug+t in t+e region. Jaan, wit+ its renowne$ taste 8or sas+imigra$e tuna, &onsume$ ?0Z o8t+e &at&+ 8rom t+e region w+ile E a&&ounte$ 8or 4Z. >t s+oul$ )e note$, +owever, t+at t+e large ortion o8 t+e&at&+ $estine$ 8or 6ot+er7 markets is )ase$ on &at&+es )5 $istant water @eets 8rom :aiwan an$ out+ Korea, aswell as e;orts o8 tuna 8or &anning to regional ro&essing )ases, 8or e;amle in :+ailan$, an$ is most likel5

$estine$ 8or markets in Jaan, E an$ Nort+ Ameri&a Cigure <F. >n$ee$, t+e region an$ its surroun$ing+ig+ seas rovi$e a)out <0 to L0 er&ent o8 t+e worl$7s tuna 8or &anning. >n terms o8

volume an$ value, t+e =s+eries in t+e out+ #a&i=& are $ominate$ )5 t+e in$ustrial tuna =s+eries, even i8 takinga&&ount o8 t+e 8a&t t+at small s&ale =s+eries &at&+es are strongl5 un$erestimate$ in oO&ial &at&+ statisti&s ]elleret al 200La 200L)F (owever t+e vast ma%orit5 o8 =s+ &aug+t in t+e region are )5 $istant water vessels 8rom

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Marine Reserves Neg