March Con Case1

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    Although North Korea and Iran are stunningly similar nations, strong sponsorship of MiddleEastern insurgencies by Iran and its probability to act irrationally while armed with nuclear

    weapons make Iran a far graver national security threat than North Korea. It is because of thisthat my partner and I negate the resolution

    Resolved: North Korea poses a more serious threat to United States national security than Iran.

    Contention 1. Iran supports terrorism.The most crucial threats to United States national security today are the wars in Iraq and

    Afghanistan. The Council on Foreign Relations reports, And according to declassifiedintelligence reports released by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point in October 2008,

    Iranian support to militants in Iraq has included paramilitary training, weapons, and equipment.Similar meddling is believed to be ongoing in Afghanistan. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    Admiral Mike Mullen, speaking with journalists in March 2010 in Kabul, said Iranwas supplying weapons to fighters in southern Afghanistan. (Full citation: State Sponsors: Iran,

    Greg Bruno, Council on Foreign Relations, 10/07/10). Iran is purposely undermining UnitedStates military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, which is the single most important area the U.S.

    currently has military operations underway. Iranian weapons and training helping the insurgentsin Iraq and Afghanistan put a heightened threat on the lives of American military, as well as

    foreign militaries in the area. As Iran is currently negatively impacting United States nationalsecurity in the U.S. most sensitive military zones, it must be considered a more serious threat

    than North Korea.

    Contention 2. Irans nuclear threat is compounded by its irrationality.According to The Heritage Foundation Iran Working Group, In addition, there are legitimate

    questions about whether Ahmadinejad, who reportedly harbors apocalyptic religious beliefsregarding the return of the Mahdi, or others in the Iranian regime like him would have the same

    cost-benefit calculus about a nuclear war that other leaders would have. Moreover, Tehran couldpass nuclear weapons on to terrorist surrogates in hopes of escaping retaliation for a nuclear

    surprise attack launched by an unknown attacker. (Full citation:Irans Nuclear Threat: The DayAfter, The Heritage Foundation Iran Working Group, 06/04/09). Ahmadinejad has notoriously

    stated his desire to wipe Israel off the map in the past, and full-scale nuclear capabilities in Irancould promise such a scenario. An unstable world leader with nuclear capabilities is to be taken

    seriously, especially as Ahmadinejad has resisted diplomatic efforts to reign in Irans nuclearprogram and harbors enough animosity toward both the United States and Israel that the nation

    poses a very serious national security threat. As mentioned earlier, Iran has no qualms withaiding terrorists, and a terrorist organization with nuclear weapons is not a threat the United

    States ever wants to deal with. This is a very real scenario that a fully nuclear Iran could cause,which makes it a much more serious national security threat than North Korea, despite North

    Koreas own purported nuclear capabilities.

    Contention 3. North Korea is not capable of posing a serious threat to the United States.North Korea, while aggressive, does not possess the means to threaten the United States in any

    sort of meaningful way. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, NorthKorea lacks the industrial capacity to build large numbers of long-ranged missiles. They will not

    be able to build so many weapons as to become a strategic factor in the region. (Full citation:North Korea Poses No Real Threat to the World, Douglas H. Paal, The Carnegie Endowment for

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    International Peace, 05/25/09). Long-range missiles are an extremely important factor indetermining a potential national security threat. North Korea does not have the capacity to build

    enough of them to become a strategic threat, which renders Iran far more dangerous. NorthKorea can be deterred far more easily. According to the Cato Institute, Granted, no sensible

    person wants the weird hermit kingdom to have nuclear weapons or missile systems. But the

    United States has thousands of nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them with pinpointaccuracy. We have deterred other strange and ruthless regimes in the past, most notably theSoviet Union under Josef Stalin and China under Mao Tse-tung. Both countries had far more

    nuclear weapons and missiles than North Korea ever can hope to build. (Full citation:ANuisance, Not a Threat, Ted Galen Carpenter, The Cato Institute, 07/10/06). The United States

    has deterred far more dangerous nations than North Korea, which lacks the resources to seriouslythreaten United States national security.

    We urge a con ballot for the following three reasons: 1. Iran supports terrorism, 2. Irans nuclear

    threat is compounded by its irrationality, and 3. North Korea is not capable of posing a seriousthreat to the United States. An armed North Korea may be scary, but an armed Iran is far more

    dangerous. Thank you.