March 2005 ACIAR Project: Bridging the gaps between SCFs and decision makers Overview of Australian Case Studies John Mullen Research Leader, Economics

March 2005March 2005ACIAR Project: Bridging the gaps between SCFs and decision makers ACIAR Project: Bridging the gaps between SCFs and decision makers

Overview of Australian Case StudiesOverview of Australian Case Studies

John Mullen

Research Leader, Economics Coordination and Evaluation

NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange

Background: Climate variabilityBackground: Climate variability

• Key issue for Australian agriculture- CV greater in Australia than other continents- Agriculture - “the most weather dependant of all human

activities” - CV responsible for 38% of the variation in the GV of Ag Prod’n - One of the main risks faced by Aust farmers

• Expected to be worse under climate change

• Implications of climate variability:– Reduced resource use efficiency on farm

– Natural resource degradation with both on and off site effects

What makes a forecast valuableWhat makes a forecast valuable

• USER FACES A CHOICE OR A DECISION

• SCF INFORMATION IS SKILFUL AND TIMELY

PROJECT OBJECTIVEPROJECT OBJECTIVE

HOW,

WHEN, &

WHERE

CAN SCF BE USED PROFITABLY


Overview of Australian Case StudiesOverview of Australian Case Studies

Western NSW Rangelands

Liverpool Plains - Northern NSW

NSW Murrumbidgee Valley

Location of Australian case studiesLocation of Australian case studies

Northern NSW

MurrumbidgeeRangelands


Western NSW RangelandsWestern NSW Rangelands

Key features:Key features:• 32.5 million ha - 42% of the land area 32.5 million ha - 42% of the land area of NSWof NSW

• 1700 graziers – av prop size 19,000 ha1700 graziers – av prop size 19,000 ha

• populated by only 52,830 people. populated by only 52,830 people.

• av rainfall of 200-400 mm with high av rainfall of 200-400 mm with high variabilityvariability

• pastoral country held under leasepastoral country held under lease

• sheep and cattle grazing with some sheep and cattle grazing with some cropping in East and Southern partscropping in East and Southern parts

• many sustainability issuesmany sustainability issues



Application of seasonal climate forecasts• Without SCF

• Pasture loss and soil erosion from maintaining stock into dry period

• Lost income opportunities from tactical management of stock numbers under favourable conditions

• With SCF

• real skill only in late winter-spring period• SOI < 0 → DRY SPRING/SUMMER• SOI < 0• what decisions occur then:

– Graziers - sale/purchase/agist decisions



Western NSW RangelandsWestern NSW Rangelands(some findings by Hacker et al)(some findings by Hacker et al)


Liverpool PlainsLiverpool Plains

Area:Area: 1.2 Million ha 1.2 Million ha Farms: 1,600Farms: 1,600 Climate:Climate: Rainfall: 604mm - 684mm Rainfall: 604mm - 684mm (60% summer rainfall)(60% summer rainfall) Highly productive agricultural Highly productive agricultural regionregionLanduses - 48% grazing, 37% Landuses - 48% grazing, 37% cropping, 14% timber reservescropping, 14% timber reserves


Cropping Cropping winter cropping (wheat, barley, chickpeas) summer cropping (sorghum, sunflowers, soybeans, maize and cotton)Grazing - 3 million beef cattle

Environmental issues:Environmental issues: Dryland salinity, erosion, water quality, vegetation management



Application of seasonal climate forecasts

• Without SCF - traditional Dryland cropping

• long fallow wheat and sorghum rotations• minimise risk of crop failure by allowing soil moisture build up• watertable and erosion problems

• With SCF – greater adoption of opp cropping

• Planting decisions based on soil moisture and SCF•higher profits, less soil erosion and reduced deep drainage• higher risk as planting on lower soil moisture but reduced through a SCF




• Forecast and rainfall associations (similar for yield)Forecast and rainfall associations (similar for yield)



• Economic value of SCFs – all forecastsEconomic value of SCFs – all forecasts



• Economic value of SCFs – all forecasts with higher Economic value of SCFs – all forecasts with higher sorghum pricesorghum price


Murrumbidgee Valley - NSWMurrumbidgee Valley - NSW

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CANBERRA

TUGGERANONG

GOOLGOWI

OXLEY

GUNBAR

RANKINS SPRINGS

BALRANALD

HAY

NARRANDERA

ARDLETHAN

LEETON

BARELLAN

YANCO

COLEAMBALLY

GRIFFITH

COOLAMONJUNEE

COOTAMUNDRA

ARIAH PARK

HARDEN

BINALONG

YASS

CONARGO

MOULAMEIN

URANAJERILDERIE

LOCKHART

WAGGA WAGGA

TARCUTTA

ADELONG

BATLOWHENTY

CULCAIRN

HOLBROOK

GUNDAGAI

TUMUTTHE ROCK

QUEANBEYAN

DENILIQUIN

FINLEY

LACHLAN RIVER

Catchment BoundaryMurray Irrigation DistrictsLowbidgee Irrigation DistrictColeambally Irrigation AreaWah Wah Irrigation DistrictBenerembah & Tabbita Irrigation DistrictsYanco & Mirrool Irrigation AreasYanko & Billabong CreeksHay to Murray RiverNarrandera to HayBurrinjuck to NarranderaDamsMajor Rivers

% Towns

0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers

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New South Wales

MurrumbidgeeCatchment

SYDNEY

CANBERRA


Irrigated agricultureIrrigated agriculture• major irrigated valley in NSW (8.4 mill ha)• broadacre ag (rice, maize, wheat) & hort crops (citrus, winegrapes)• 50% of Aust’s rice, 25% of NSW total fruit & veg• broadacre irrigation - mainly flood systems • 330,000 ha of irrigated crop and pastures

Irrigation suppliesIrrigation supplies• very reliable due to large storages in the East• historically - full irrigation allocations in 95 of 100 yrs• reforms – lower reliability due to environmental flows



Application of seasonal climate forecasts

• Without SCF• allocation system does not take into account SCFs• irrigators make decisions in October well before end of season allocations are known• reduced economic efficiency from usual under planting• environmental flows make this worse

• With SCF• better info on likely inflows to dams flows through to more reliable irrigation allocations

• benefits of SCF - better matching of production plans to irrigation water supply conditions


Documents

March 2005 ACIAR Project: Bridging the gaps between SCFs and decision makers Overview of Australian Case Studies John Mullen Research Leader, Economics