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CommoditiesI VAYDA BAZAARMARCH 2013, ISSUE I

For Private Circulation Only www.mangalkeshav.com

Commodity & Currency - Market P erformance

Indianmarket(MCX)

Pricein(`) Feb13 Jan13 mom%chg. Feb12 yoy%chg. ytd%chg. Dec12Gold 29,570 29,871 (1.0) 27,952 5.8 (4.2) 30,859

Silver 53,267 57,849 (7.9) 57,783 (7.8) (7.9) 57,864

Copper 418.20 440.05 (5.0) 417.70 0.1 (5.8) 443.75

Aluminum 105.40 110.50 (4.6) 112.65 (6.4) (5.7) 111.75

Nickel 895.70 979.10 (8.5) 976.60 (8.3) (4.3) 935.70

Lead 123.00 129.90 (5.3) 109.40 12.4 (4.0) 128.15

Zinc 111.05 113.95 (2.5) 103.95 6.8 (0.4) 111.45

Crudeoil 5,076 5,202 (2.4) 5,227 (2.9) 1.2 5,015

NaturalGas 191.10 178.20 7.2 128.70 48.5 3.4 184.90

Internationalmarket(COMEX/NYMEX/LME)

Pricein(US$) Feb13 Jan13 mom%chg. Feb12 yoy%chg. ytd%chg. Dec12

SpotGold 1,579.30 1,663.25 (5.0) 1,696.40 (6.9) (5.7) 1,674.95

SpotSilver 28.50 31.42 (9.3) 34.63 (17.7) (6.0) 30.32

Copper 7,816.00 8,199.75 (4.7) 8,525.00 (8.3) (1.6) 7,944.25

Aluminum 2,006.8 2,096.0 (4.3) 2,625.0 (23.6) (3.0) 2,068.0

Nickel 16,605 18,398 (9.7) 19,466 (14.7) (3.0) 17,110

Lead 2,278.3 2,430 (6.2) 2,192 3.9 (2.2) 2,329

Zinc 2,068.5 2,145.5 (3.6) 2,111.0 (2.0) (0.1) 2,071.0

Crudeoil 92.05 97.49 (5.6) 107.70 (14.5) 0.3 91.79

NaturalGas 3.49 3.34 4.4 2.62 33.1 3.7 3.36

Currencies(Spot)

in(US$) Feb13 Jan13 mom%chg. Feb12 yoy%chg. ytd%chg. Dec12

Rupee 54.35 53.21 2.1 49.01 10.9 (1.1) 55.0

Euro 1.3056 1.3576 (3.8) 1.3325 (2.0) (1.1) 1.3195

Yen 92.58 91.69 1.0 81.1 14.2 6.7 86.7

Pound 1.5162 1.5859 (4.4) 1.591 (4.7) (6.7) 1.6255*pricesource:Winquote(IN)

Asset class Performance: Equities v/ s Commodities

Equities(mom%chg.) Commodities(mom%chg.)

(Source:Winquote,MangalKeshavResearch)

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Precious Metals - Gold

Goldtrendhasturnedbearishafterpricesbreachedcrucialsupportof30366lastmonth&hasbeentradingbelowthesamefor

almost2weeksnow.

Ontheindicators:14weekRSIistradingbelow50&itsmovingaveragewhilemomentumindicatorMACD&deviationlineare

slopingdownwardswithincreasingnegativedifference bothindicatorsareshowingsignsofbearishnessinprices.

Onmovingaverage:Pricesare tradingbelowall their longtermmovingaverages (SMAs)ondailyaswellasweeklycharts,

indicatingthattrendremainsdown(100daySMA@30900,200daySMA@30800&50daySMA30450).

Fornearterm,thetrendisexpectedtoremaindowntillpricesaretradingbelow30400levels.So,SellingisadvisedonRalliesto

30000,Targeting29150&27860,withStopabove30400(onclosingbasis).

Precious Metals - Silver

AspertheweeklychartaboveofSilverfuture:PricesherearedecliningsteadilyformingLowerhighs&Lower lowsonweekly

chart,withimmediatesupportat51200.Alsoanalyzingtheabovechart, ithasbeennoticedthatabreakoutabove/below2

weekshigh/lowisseenasreversalintheshorttermtrend.

On the indicators:14weekRSI is tradingbelow50&alsobelow itsmovingaverage, indicating that the intermediate trend

remainsdownwhilemomentum indicatorMACD&deviation lineareslopingdownwardsbelowzerowith increasingnegative

difference both indicatorsareshowingsignsofbearishness inprices.Onmovingaverages:pricesaretradingbelowalltheir

longterm SMAs& shortterm SMAs on daily aswell asweekly charts, indicating that the intermediate trend has turned

bearish. Forthenearterm,Sellingisadvisedonralliesto5570056000,Targeting53100&51200,withStopabove56450.

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Energy - Crude oil

Crudeoilpricesarecurrentlyintheircorrectivephase&decliningsteadily,forminglowerhighs&lowerlows.Alsoanalyzingthe

chart,ithasbeennoticedthatabreakoutabove/below2weekshigh/lowisseenasreversalinshorttermtrend.

On indicators:14weekRSI istradingclose50butbelow itsmovingaverage, indicatingthatthemomentumremainssideways

whilemomentum indicatorMACD& itsdeviation linearetradingabovezero,butwithareducingpositivedifferencebetween

thetwo,showingsignsofashiftinmomentumtonegative.Onmovingaverages:Pricesaretradingbetweenalltheirlongterm

&shorttermmovingaveragesondailyaswellasweeklycharts,givingnocleardirectiontothetrend.Inthenearterm,prices

areexpectedtotradeintherangeof47005250,withsupportat4980.Sellonlyonsharprallies&addmorebelow4970.

Energy - Natural gas

AspertheweeklychartofNaturalgasfutures,priceshavebeenconsolidatinginarangeformorethan21/2month,withrange

of178196.Alsothecharttrend,itindicatesthatabreakoutabove/below2weekshigh/lowisseenasreversalinshortterm

trend.

Ontheindicators:14weekRSIistradingabove50&alsoaboveitsmovingaveragelinewhilemomentumindicatorMACD&its

deviationlinearetradingabovemidzerolinebutwithareducingnegativedifferencebetweenthetwo...(Noneoftheindicators

aregivingacleardirectiontothetrend).Onmovingaverages:pricesaretradingabovetheir10week&20weekSimpleMoving

Average(SMA),buttheshorttermSMAtradingbelowlongtermSMA,givingnocleardirectiontothepricetrend.

Inthenearterm,strongresistanceisseenat196&buyingisadvisedonlyabovethegivenlevelonaclosingbasis,fortargetsof

210225.However,onfailuretobreachabove196,priceswillcontinuetoconsolidatebetween170196levels.

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Base Metals - Copper

Copperpricesstillremainintheirconsolidationphase&areexpectedtotradeinabroadrangeof397466.5withintermediate

resistanceat455& intermediatesupportat412.Onthe Indicators:14weekRSI istradingbelow50&alsobelow itsmoving

averagewhile themomentum indicatorMACD& its deviation line are trading flat abovemidzero line,with an increasing

negativedifference(Noneoftheindicatorsaregivingcleardirectiononthepricetrend).

Onmovingaverages:Pricesarehoveringabovebelowtheir10week&20weeksimplemovingaverage(SMA)withtheshort

termSMAcurrentlyabovethelongtermSMA,givingnocleardirection.

Fornearterm,weadvisebuyingondipsto416418,Targeting435&450,withStopbelow412.

Base Metals - Nickel

AspertheweeklychartofNickelfutures,thepricestrendstillremainssidewayswithstrongsupportseenat840850 levels&

immediateresistanceat1000.

On the indicators:14weekRSI is tradingbelow50&alsobelow itsmovingaveragewhilemomentum indicatorMACD& its

deviationlinearetradingabovethemidzerolinebutwithanegativedifference(Bothindicatorsareshowingsignsofchange

inmomentumtonegative).Onmovingaverages:pricesarehoveringaroundtheir10week&20weeksimplemovingaverage

(SMA),withshorttermSMAtradingabovethelongtermSMA,givingnocleardirectiontothepricetrend.

Forthenearterm,traderscansellfuturesaround920levelsfortargetsof890&860,withveryStrictStopabove935.

(Buy&holdisadvisedonlycloseto845850withStopbelow840).

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Base Metals - Zinc

Zincstrendstillremainssideways,aspricescontinuetoconsolidatebetweenlongtermsupport&resistanceline(asmarkedon

thechart).However,priceshaverecentlybreachedoutfromarisingwedge, indicatingthattheintermediatetrendhasturned

bearish.Ontheindicators:14weekRSIistradingabove50,butbelowitsmovingaveragewhilethemomentumindicatorMACD

&itsdeviationlinearetradingabovethemidzerolinebutwithareducingpositivedifference(bothindicatorsareshowingsigns

ofshift inmomentumtonegative).Onmovingaverages:Pricesaretradingbetweentheir10week&20weeksimplemoving

average(SMA)withtheshorttermSMAcurrentlyabovethelongtermSMA,givingnocleardirection.InLongterm,weexpect

thecurrentconsolidationphase tocontinue&expectprices to trade in the rangeof96120.Forverynear term,weadvise

Sellingbelow110.8&thenonriseto113,targeting106.5107&below106downtill98100,withStopabove114.5.Base Metals - Lead

Analyzing theweekly chart aboveof Lead futures,prices are slowlymoving into consolidationphase.Also theoverall chart

pattern indicatesthatabreachabove/below2weekhigh/lowisseenassignofchangeinshorttermtrend.Onthe indicators:

14weekRSIistradingabove50,butbelowitsmovingaverage&isalsoseentakingsupportonthetrendline(asmarkedonthe

chart)whilemomentumindicatorMACD&itsdeviationlinearetradingabovemidzeroline,withanegativedifferencebetween

thetwo(Both indicatorsareshowingcontrastingsignals&givingnocleardirection).Onmovingaverages:Pricesaretrading

below their 10week&20week simplemoving average (SMA), but the shortterm SMA trading above the longterm SMA,

indicatingthatthemomentumremainspositive.Longterm:weexpectthecurrentconsolidationphasetocontinue&expect

pricestotradeinthebroadrangeof105136. Forthenearterm,supportisseenat121.5levels&sellingisadvisedonlyifthe

givenlevelisbreachedtillthenpricesareexpectedtoconsolidate&canagainmovehighertowards130136levels.

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Base Metals - Aluminum

Analyzing theweekly chartofAluminum futuresprices are currently in their correctivephaseonweekly chart&has also

breachedbelowits2weeklowindicatingthattheshorttermtrendremainsdown.

Onthe indicators:14weekRSI istradingbelow50, itsmovingaverage&hasalsobreached itssupport linefromabovewhile

momentum indicatorMACD& itsdeviationlineistradingabovethemidzeroline,butwithanegativedifferencebetweenthe

two(bothindicatorsareshowingsignsoffurthercorrectioninprices).Onmovingaverages:priceshavebeenhoveringabove&

below their10week&20week simplemovingaverage (SMA),butwith shortterm SMA tradingabove the longtermSMA,

indicatethattheoveralltrendremainsup.Forthenearterm,Sellingisadvisedaround108109levelsforTargetsof105&102,

withStrictStopabove110.5(Pricetrendisexpectedtoturnpositiveonlyabove112).Buy&holdonlyatSupportof101102.

Currency - USD-I NR

SpotUSDINRhasrecoveredsharplythisweek,butthetrendstillremainscorrectivetillratesaretradingbelowthedownward

slopingtrend line(asmarkedinred,onthechart).Alsoanalyzingthecharttrend, ithasbeennoticedthatabreakoutabove/

below2weekshigh/lowisseenasreversalintheshorttermtrend.

Onthe indicators:14weekRSI istradingclose50&alsocloseto itsmovingaveragewhilemomentum indicatorMACD& its

deviationlinearetradingjustabovemidzeroline,butareveryflat(bothindicatorsareshowingsignsofaconsolidation,withno

cleardirection to the trend).Onmovingaverages:USDINR ratesare tradingabove their10week&20weeksimplemoving

average(SMA),buttheshorttermSMAistradingbelowlongtermSMA,givingnocleardirection.

Forthenearterm,USDINRholdsstrongresistanceat55.2&weadvisesellingUSDINRonriseto54.855,fortargetsof53&

51,withverystrictstopabove55.25.

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