The 7 ‘Deadly’

Sins Every GM

What NHL Teams can learn from over GM

Should Avoid

can learn from over 14,000 wins

• PowerScout research overview

Areas Covered

• The two major findings

• The 7 deadly sins

• A look at the Oilers this year

The research began in the early 80’s

Terry Appleby created and produced the critically acclaimed board game Canadian Pro Football in

1975 and National Pro Hockey (NPH) in 1985. It was in the development of NPH that Terry began

his statistical research into all aspects of hockey including player performance. Both games were

produced and sold until 1991.

Terry asked “If we want players that help our team ‘win’, why don’t we measure them that way?”

The inspiration…Edmonton Journal October 28, 1998

Mark Spector’s article inspired

Terry to shift his research to

finding out why teams win.

Once he found the winning

patterns, he began measuring patterns, he began measuring

the true value & performance

of every skater based on doing

the ‘right’ things for his position

to help his team win.

The creation of the real-time

scoring system (RTSS) in

1997, and specifically player

ice-time, allowed his research

to go to the next level.

PowerScout analyzes hockey by focusing on the proven patterns for winning.

Using our key research findings, we create analytical and

technology solutions that help hockey managers & coaches at every hockey level maximize assets and build winning teams.

� Research by retired economist Terry Appleby

� Over 30 years of statistics research into hockey

� Over 14 years studying winning NHL teams

� 20-yr member of Society of American Baseball Research

Major findings come from a multi-variable linear regression on all games since 1998:

� 14,000+ NHL games� 14,000+ NHL games

� 12,000+ player performances

� 28,000+ goalie performances

R2 = 0.84

Major Finding #1

Each position has a different

Center

17% (14)

Defensive

Left

Winger

10% (8)

Offensive

Right

Winger

10% (8)

has a different importance to

winning

Defensive

Defenceman

16% (12)

Goaltender

27% (22)

Offensive

Defenceman

20% (18)

Positions are displayed with their average

importance to winning (%), as well as their

average points contributed in the standings

on an average (0.500) team (82 points).

Major Finding #2

Each skill has a different importance at each skating position

What skills?What skills?

Evaluating Skaters

A 12 skills approach

to rating a player’s

value, performance,

and his positional

impact on winning.

Some skills are

positive, some

negative …depends

on the position.

*** = high impact on winning

** = moderate impact on winning

* = low impact on winning

Evaluating Goaltenders

Eleven stats are combined

to measure every goalie

game performance.

From this ‘superstat’, we

determine how much of determine how much of

the 2 team points for

each win is due to the

goalie’s performance, and

then the skaters on the

winning team split the

rest.

This is how Point Shares

are calculated.

• PS: actual point shares = CONTRIBUTION• Points in the standings earned by his own performance and ice-time

• MAX: maximum point shares = IMPACT

‘Point Shares’ Player Evaluation System

(skaters & goalies are compared directly using the following 4 metrics)

• Theoretical points in the standings he’d earn if he played 60min/gm for 82 games

• Compares all players directly, regardless of playing on good/bad team, and takes into account the different position importance

• PAR: point shares above replacement = PERFORMANCE• Points in the standings he’d earn over a season over a replacement player (80% of avg)

• Compares all players directly and excludes the position importance

• MVP: most valuable player = VALUE• % more points in the standings earned versus a replacement player at his position

Sin #1:

Overestimating the difference in value between

average and top-tier goalies

OROR

Key Findings:

• Goaltending position is on average worth 27% to winning

• Best goaltenders perform ~15% better over a season than an average goalie

Sin #2:

Under-estimating the value of a puck-moving dman

AND

Key Findings:

• “Bobby Orr Effect” added 3.5 wins to defence position

• Offensive defencemen as a position on average worth 20% to winning

• Defensive defencemen as a position on average worth 16% to winning

Sin #3:

Underestimating the value of passing at defence,

but overestimating the value of hitting

OROR

Key Findings:

• Passing at defence (assists) are worth 10% of winning (most important skill of all positions)

• Every 8 assists at defence = 1 point in the standings

• Toughness (hits) at defence are worth 1%....most important at center, then wing

Sin #4:

Underestimating the value of aggressive shooting

from centers, while overestimating passing

OROR

Key Findings:

• Shots from centers are worth 3.6% to winning, goals worth 3.2%, assists <1%

• Every 23 shots at center yields 1 point in the standings

Sin #5:

Underestimating the value of speed on the wing,

and overestimating the value of experience

OROR

Key Findings:

• Speed at wing contributes 2% to winning (offensive defencemen is 3%)

• Production decline with experience at wing likely due to ‘punishment’ at that position

• Defencemen get 15% better each yr with experience, center get 5% (up to 400 games)

Sin #6:

Overestimating the effectiveness of building a

team's attack through the wing position

OROR

Key Findings:

• Winger on average only contribute 10% to winning due to sub-optimal angle for shots to

the net, and confined mobility by the boards = LESS IMPACTFUL POSITION

• Shooting accuracy is critical at wing as it is 3% of winning

Sin #7:

Overestimating the value of the power play, and underestimating the penalty-kill

Key Findings:

• Even-strength is on average 54% of winning, Penalty kill is 36% and Power play is 10%

• Penalties by players are a negative skill (discipline) with importance of 1.6% to ‘winning’

Top Oiler MVPs this year

Rank Player Pos MVP PS PAR MAX GP G A Pts

1 EBERLE RW 5.8% 5.4 5.8 36 78 34 42 76

2 HALL LW 3.4% 3.8 5.4 31 61 27 26 53

3 NUGENT-HOPKINS C 1.8% 3.6 4 29 62 18 34 52

4 HORCOFF C 1.0% 3.3 1.6 19 81 13 21 34

League Rank: Eberle 25th, Hall 92nd, RNH 156th

RNH tied with Henrique and Read for top rookie MVP, Landeskog 4th

4 HORCOFF C 1.0% 3.3 1.6 19 81 13 21 34

5 PETRY D 0.9% 4.8 3.2 28 73 2 23 25

6 GAGNER C 0.5% 2.6 1.2 18 75 18 29 47

7 SMYTH LW 0.2% 1.7 0.6 10 82 19 27 46

8 WHITNEY D 0.1% 4.3 6.3 36 51 3 17 20

Top League MVPs this year

Rank Player Pos Team MVP PS GP G A Pts

1 STAMKOS C TB 14.5% 13.5 82 60 37 97

2 CAMPBELL D FLA 12.1% 14 82 4 49 53

3 KARLSSON D OTT 10.5% 12.6 81 19 59 78

4 WIDEMAN D WAS 10.1% 12.7 82 11 35 464 WIDEMAN D WAS 10.1% 12.7 82 11 35 46

5 MALKIN C PIT 9.6% 11.8 75 50 59 109

6 SUTER D NSH 9.4% 13.3 79 7 39 46

7 BOYLE D SJ 8.1% 10.9 81 9 39 48

8 CHARA D BOS 7.9% 11.5 79 12 40 52

9 KOVALCHUK LW NJ 7.8% 8.4 77 37 46 83

10 STAAL C CAR 7.7% 8.1 82 24 46 70

Tom Gilbert TradeMaker Analysis(results based on different position/skills importance)

Jim Matheson, Edmonton

Journal - Apr21, 2012

“Tom Gilbert went from being

a top 4 D-men here to No. 1

dog in Minnesota, playing 27

minutes on average in his 20

games there after the trade games there after the trade

deadline deal (Feb27) for Nick

Schultz.”

“Gilbert’s the reason they

didn’t get a draft lottery

pick,” said a source close to

the Wild. “He was incredibly

good. They won some games

down the stretch because of

him.” The Wild will pick

seventh in June.

Remember this Oiler game?February 2, 2012 Sam Gagner’s 8-point game

Real-time

Shot Momentum

Real-Time

Game Dominance

Real-time Momentum/Dominance

also showcased on

Thank youIf you have any questions:

Marc ApplebyMarc Appleby

CEO

marc@powerscouthockey.com

www.powerscouthockey.com