Mapping future snow cover in Idaho

Brandon C. Moore

University of Idaho

Outline

Model Development

Validation

Results

Future Research

Model Development

Why start from scratch? Develop in-depth understanding Complicated models

Inputs Temperature Precipitation

Outputs Snow cover SWE Snow depth Snow density Runoff

Model Development

Anderson, E.A., 1976.

Brown, R.D., B. Brasnett, and D. Robinson., 2003.

Singh and Singh.

Model Validation

Validation at “high quality” SnoTEL locations

Determined by experienced SnoTEL users

Force snow model with observed monthly temperature and precipitation

Provides baseline of quality of the model

Model Validation

Model Validation

Remote Sensing Imagery

Snow Cover Extent Snow Water Equivalent

Hydrologic model comparisons

USGS streamflow data

Model Results

Modeled April 1974 snow cover for the state of Idaho

Model Results

Modeled April 2093 snow cover for the state of Idaho

Model Results

Modeled April 2077 snow cover for the state of Idaho

Model Results Trend in the fraction of Idaho snow covered.

Model Results Elevation trend in statewide snow cover

Model Results Figure from Mote et al, 2005

Model Results

March trend in SWE (1950-1999)

Future Research

Model Validation

As outlined previously

Multiple downscaled climate scenarios

GISS-ER, IPSL-CM4, CCSM3, PCM1

Move toward finer spatial resolution

1/8th degree to 1/16th degree

Future Research Snow Cover Imagery

1990 – 2003 NOHRSC Difficulties

Multiple formats Projection Issues Spatial Resolution

2001 – present MOD10A2 8-day composite

Dataset for the Western US