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MANPOWER PLANNING AND ORGANIZATION DESIGN
NATO CONFERENCE SERIES
Ecology II Systems Science III Human Factors IV Marine Sciences V Air-Sea Interactions VI Materials Science
II SYSTEMS SCIENCE
Volume 1 Transportation Planning for a Better Environment Edited by Peter Stringer and H. Wenzel
Volume 2 Arctic Systems Edited by P. J. Amaria, A. A. Bruneau, and P. A. Lapp
Volume 3 Environmental Assessment of Socioeconomic Systems Edited by Dietrich F. Burkhardt and William H. Ittelson
Volume 4 Earth Observation Systems for Resource Management and Environmental Control Edited by Donald J. Clough and Lawrence W. Morley
Volume 5 Applied General Systems Research: Recent Developments and Trends
Edited by George J. Klir
Volume 6 Evaluating New Telecommunications Services Edited by Martin C.J. Elton, William A. Lucas, and
David W. Conrath
Volume 7 Manpower Planning and Organization Design Edited by Donald T. Bryant and Richard J. Niehaus
MANPOWER PLANNING AND ORGANIZATION DESIGN
Edited by
Donald T. Bryant Tavistock Institute of Human Relations London
and
Richard J. Niehaus u.s. Navy Office of Civilian Personnel Washington, D. C.
Published in coordination with NATO Scientific Affairs Division by
PLENUM PRESS· NEW YORK AND LONDON
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
NATO Conference on Manpower Planning and Organization Design, Stresa, ItaIY,1977. Manpower planning. and organization design.
(NATO conference series: II, Systems science; 7) "Proceedings of the NATO Conference on Manpower Planning and Organiza
tion Design held at Stresa, Italy, June 20-24, 1977, sponsored by the NATO Special Program Panels on Human Factors and on Systems Science."
1. Manpower planning-Congresses. I. Bryant, Donald, T. II. Niehaus, Richard J. III. NATO Special Program Panel on Human Factors. IV. NATO Special Program Panel on Systems Science. V. Title. VI. Series. HF5549.5.M3N21977 658.3 784623 ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-4624-1 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-4622-7 001: 10.1007/978-1-4613-4622-7
Proceedings of the NATO Conference on Manpower Planning and Organization Design held at Stresa, Italy, June 20-24, 1977, sponsored by the NATO Special. Program Panels on Human Factors and Systems Science
© 1978 Plenum Press, New York Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1978 A Division of Plenum Publishing Corporation 227 West 17th Street, New York, N.Y. 10011
All rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher
PREFACE
This volume is the proceedings of the conference entitled "Manpower Planning and Organization Design" which was held in Stresa, Italy, 20-24 June 1977.
The Conference was sponsored by the NATO Scientific Affairs Division and organized jointly through the Special Programs Panels on Human Factors and on Systems Science. Two Conference Directors were appointed with overall responsibilities for the programme and for policy, and they were assisted in their tasks by a small advisory panel consisting of Professor A. Charnes (University of Texas), Professor W.W. Cooper (Carnegie Mellon University, now at Harvard University) and Dr. F.A. Heller (TavistQck Institute of Human Relations). Professor R. Florio of Bergamo kindly agreed to become Administrative Director and, as such, was responsible for all the local arrangements.
The Conference Directors were further assisted by "national points of contact" appointed from each of the member countries of NATO. These national representatives played a substantial part in the search for participants and in the collection and transmission of the various conference communications. Although full details of the national points of contact are included in the Appendices, special tribute must be paid to the UK point of contact, Brian Smith of the Civil Service Department. He very capably shouldered the additional burdens of maintaining continuity and resolving problems during the absence in Canada of Don Bryant in the particularly demanding two months preceding the Conference.
By the time when the selection of papers to be included in the Conference had to be made, over fifty acceptable abstracts had been received. This presented the Conference Directors with the problem of deciding which out of so many potentiall worth-
v
PREFACE
while papers should be eliminated in order to produce a manageable programme. Eventually the difficulty was resolved by including all the papers with acceptable abstracts and by allocating to one or other of two types of presentation: main plenary sessions for papers that appeared to fit in with one of the eight Conference themes; and parallel presentations of special interest topics (Paper Fair). In the event, thirty-nine papers were presented in the main plenary sessions and thirteen in the Paper Fair. In addition, two authors intending to present papers (Athanassiou of Greece and Joynt of Norway) were prevented by unavoidable circumstances from attending the Conference; their papers were however made available to participants, and consequently the Editors decided to include both of these papers in the published proceedings.
The proceedings follow the Conference programme to some extent, but it will be seen there are now ten sections instead of eight sessions and a paper fair. The order of some individual papers has been changed in order to produce a balanced publication geared towards the requirements of the general reader. The proceedings then consist of ten sections which themselves consist of three to. six papers grouped together under a particular theme. The contents pages, list all section themes, papers and authors for the entire proceedings.
The original session themes for the Conference itself are listed below, together with the session chairmen:
Session Theme Chairmen
I Organization Design and Career Management RC Sorenson(US) Models.
2 Practical Experiences with Manpower J Picard(France) Planning Systems.
3 Interactive Computer-assisted Manpower NO Heyer (US) Management.
4 Organization Design in Workforce Planning.G Mensch (West Germany)
5 Planning for Equal Employment Opportu- ffi~ Cooper (US) nities.
6 Manpower Planning as a General WW Cooper (US) Organizational System.
7 Macro-Implications of Micro Manpower G Alpay (Turkey) Planning.
8 Aspects of Organizational Systems. GD Kaye (US) 9 Behavioral and Management Science Methods. W. Price(Canada)
(Paper Fair) (Co-ordinator)
PREFACE vn
The Conference Directors would like to express their graditude to these session chairmen and the paper fair co-ordinator for their efforts in ensuring that the events were smoothly organized.
Thanks are also due to a number of other people who helped to make the meeting a success: in particular to the staff and management of the hotel group in Stresa, and of the Palazzo dei Congressi where the Conference was held; and to the Mayor and City of Stresa for their generous contribution to the entertainment provided by the folk dancers at the Gala Dinner. Social events are often important ingredients that go into the making of a successful conference, and we were indeed fortunate in having the Spouses' Programme directed by Mrs. Mary Regina Niehaus.
Secretarial services were provided by Mrs. Ruth Combs of the U.S. Navy Office of Civilian Personnel and by Mrs. Jean Goodes of the Travistock Institute. Mrs. Ursula Granville of the Tavistock Institute was responsible for much of the administrative as well as of the secretarial arrangements in the U.K. David Sholtz of the U.S. Navy Office of Civilian Personnel gave considerable help to the Conference Directors in the U.S., together with Kathy Lewis of Columbia University who also proved to be not only an exceptional 'behind the scenes' organizer in the pre-planning and planning phases of the Conference, but also a competent problem-solver 'on-the-spot' during the Conference week itself.
Fianlly, we would be remiss if we did not acknowledge the role of the NATO Scientific Affairs Division in taking the initiative in launching this Conference. We owe a special debt to Dr. B.A. Bayraktar who provided much valuable counsel and advice during the early stages of the Conference preparations.
Don Bryant
Richard J. Niehaus
CONTENTS
Introductory Statement. • • • • D. Bryant and R. J. Niehaus
SECTION 1: Organization Design and Career Management
Models for Organization Design and Staffing E. S. Bres, F. Leader, B. E. Moore and D. Sholtz
Manpower Planning for the Managerial Workforce: A Quantitative and Qualitative Approach
C. Plougonven
The Creation of a System of Personnel Management Forecasting: Technology or Sociology? •
P. Miret
A Methodological Review of the Treatment of Individual Goals in Some Recent German System Approaches Towards Manpower Planning
J. Gohl and H. J. Oppelland
An Optimal Retirement Policy for Individuals D. Sadowski
SECTION 2: Conversational Computer-Assisted Manpower Management • • • • •
Conversational Manpower Planning Models in a Telecommunications Environment
R. J. Niehaus
MANPLAN: A Flexible C~mputer Package for Practical
1
13
15
31
45
57
73
83
85
Manpower Planning • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• 103 J. Nash and A. Goddard
ix
x
Bargaining Assignment and Officer Rotation Models in the U.S. Navy •••••
T. I. Eubanks and G. L. Thompson
Developing a Research-Based System for Manpower Management and Career Progression in the U. S. Army Officer Corps ••••••
B. H. Cory, F. F. Medland and J. E. Uhlaner
A Computer Assisted Manpower Planning Model • • R. C. Dudding and W. G. Piskor
SECTION 3: Organization Design in Workforce Planning
An Action Research Approach to Organisation Design D. Bryant and B. Painter
CONTENTS
119
131
145
155
157
Organization Design in the Smaller Enterprise • • • • • • •• 173 B. Barry
The Place of Value Orientation of Members in Organizational Design • • • • •
M. Gurkaynak and K. Sayba~ili
Manpower Planning on the Halifax Waterfront: A Case Study with Implications for Industrial Relations ••••• • •
J. A. Dougall
. . . , . . . .
Matrix Organization in an Industrializing Society: Case Studies from Brazil •• • • • • •
J. R. Hemsley, R. Sbragia and E. Vasconcellos
Importance of Individual Differences in Intervention and Design for Improving Quality of Working Life • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
M. Boisvert and R. Theriault
SECTION 4: Descriptive Models of Organizations
The Integration of Human Resources Planning into the Budgetary Cycle of the Canadian Federal Public Service • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
R. C. Dudding and R. L. Marsh
Possibilities for Career Management in a Subordinate Organisation
G. D. Kaye
187
197
209
223
241
243
259
CONTENTS xi
Organisational Dichotomies: The Dilemma of Management • • •• 271 R. Pemble
Planning for Manpower Needs and Organization Development • • • • • • •
G. A1pay
SECTION 5: Mathematical Methods for Manpower Systems
A Normative Model for Manpower Planning Under Risk •••••••••
A. Martel and W. L. Price
283
289
291
Interactive Design of a Manpower System • • • • • • • • • •• 307 R. C. Grino1d
Efficient Computation and Long Range Optimization Applications Using a Two-Characteristic Markov-Type Manpower Flow Model • • • •
K. T. Marshall
Two Linear Programming Models of a Large German Federal Department • •• • • • •
G. Uebe, M. J. Beckmann, J. Fischer and E. Marwitz
Manpower Planning Under Stochastic Turnover Behavior K. Uyar and C. K. Uyar
Forecasting and Recruitment in Graded Manpower Systems • • • •
J. A. E. E. van Nunen and J. Wessels
SECTION 6: Planning for Equal Employment Opportunities
Equal Employment Opportunity Planning and Staffing Models • • • • • • • •
A. Charnes, W. W. Cooper, K. A. Lewis and R. J. Niehaus
Planning Manpower Utilization in a Bi-Cu1tura1 Environment
J. E. Mayhood, C. A. U. Cotton and W. L. Price
On the Racial Composition of Workers Available to an Organization • • • • • • • • •
S. Haber
319
331
341
353
365
367
383
395
xii
SECTION 7: Economic and Demographic Implications of Manpower Planning • • • • • •
Intertempora1 Eco-Demographic Interactions and Their Manpower Planning Implications
A. P. Schinnar
Personnel Transfer in the Public/Private
CONTENTS
409
411
Research and Development (R&D) Sector • • • • • •• 427 G. Mensch
The Demand for Qualified Manpower: Some Implications for Macroeconomic Planning • • • • •• 433
R. Pearson
Some Economic-Demographic Interactions Affecting Female Manpower Supply: The Greek Experience 445
S. K. Athanassiou
Institutional Considerations for Macro Manpower Planning in Less Developed Countries
B. J. Bhatt and V. Mahajan
Manpower Planning for Industrial Projects in Libya ••
M. M. Aswed and M. H. E1wany
Engineering Education and Manpower Needs of Developing Countries ••••••
M. A. K. Malik
SECTION 8: Practical Experiences with Manpower Planning
461
475
485
Systems • • • • . • • . • • • . • • . • 497
Organizational/Systems Opportunities in the Operational Use of a Personnel Planning Model • •• 499
J. Silverman
Manpower Planning as a Basis for Current Changes in Periods of Engagement in the Canadian Forces
1. P. Sherlock
Local Government Manpower Planning: Theory in Practice P. E. Judkins, J. A. Dawson, P. L. Davies, N. J. Sutcliffe, D. A. Surgey and C. A. Rowswell
513
529
CONTENTS
Re-Eva1uating Company Manpower Planning in the Light of Some Practical Experiences •
R. J. Casson
An Integrated Assignment and Training Control System of the Army (IVAS) • • • • •
P. Bauhardt
On the Application of Analytical Models in Personnel Planning in the Bundeswehr
G. A. Zolzer
xiii
545
561
573
Selecting the Most Appropriate Manpower Model • • • • • • •• 587 J. Draper and J. R. Merchant
SECTION 9: Issues in Selection, Performance and Occupational Choice •••..•.•••. • . . . • .• 603
The Identification of Management Potential: A Contingency Approach •• • • •
V. Stanic
An Objective Approach to the Development of Job Classification Schemes
V. Du1ewicz and G. Keenay
The Characteristics of Naval Personnel and Personnel Performance
S. A. Horowitz and A. Sherman
Implications of a Country Work Force's Perceptions of Occupations on Work Force Mix and Macro Manpower Plans • • • • • • • • •
A. K. Jain, V. Mahajan and B. T. Ratchford
Contingency Analysis: With an Emphasis on Organization Satisfaction • • •
P. Joynt
SECTION 10: Quantitative Methods and Studies for Manpower
605
621
637
653
667
Planning .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 681
An Interactive Manpower Planning and Scheduling System for a Health Facility •• • •
E. N. West 683
xiv
The Cost-Effectiveness of Various Fringe Benefits to U. S. Navy Personnel
R. C. Morey and A. P. La1chandani
VACATE: A Model for Personnel Inventory Planning Under Changing Management Policy
P. H. Sto1off and S. J. Ba1ut
An Initial Investigation into the Suitability of Absenteeism Rates as Measures of Performance
F. Dansereau, Jr., J. A. A1utto and S. Markham
An Evaluation of Navy Unrestricted Line Officer Accession Programs •••••••••
S. D. Kleinman
CONTENTS
691
707
721
733
An Industry Framework for Company Manpower Planning • • • •• 749 A. Moss
Appendix I: National Points of Contact . . . 767
Appendix II: List of Participants 769
Index • • • • • • 779