21/10/2014

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Fast-Forward to 2020: New Trends Transforming the World as We Know It

Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Society

Manoj Menon Twitter:@menon_manoj mmenon@frost.com

21/10/2014

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“If you want something new, you have to stop doing something old” - Peter Drucker

“If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got” - Albert Einstein

“Know what your customers want before they do!”

Visions & Benchmarks

• Wayne Gretzy & Roger Banister

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Journey to Visionary Innovation

12 Mega trends

+

9 Transformational Shifts

+

50 Disruptive Technologies

+

Innovation Ecosystem Drivers

5

New Mega Trends

What is a Mega Trend?

Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the

future world with their far reaching sustainable impact on business, societies, economies,

cultures and personal lives.

Urbanization

Smart is the New Green

Social Trends

Connectivity and Convergence

Bricks and Clicks

Innovating to Zero

New Business Models

Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers

Future Infrastructure Development

Health, Wellness and Well Being

Future of Mobility

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Future of Energy

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9 Transformational Shifts by 2020

1

2

3

5

4

8

7

6

Connected Living

Big Data Clouds

Smart Cities

Sharing Economy

Rise of Personal Robotics Sensorization of

Things

Resource Nexus

Circular Economy

3D Printing

Impact on Future Products and Services Measured based on highest impact on future products and services capabilities, resulting in new convergent and radical

devices

Minor Conservative Radical

Gro

wth

Att

ract

iven

ess

Hig

h

Low

9

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Connected Work

Connected Home

Connected City

#1 Connected Living Connected Living market expected to reach $731.70 billion by 2020 as the importance

of internet and digital solutions grows in the overall economy.

Internet Economy* $14.7 Trillion

Global GDP $107.2 Trillion Connected

Living Market $731.70 billion

*Average based on data reported by OECD economies and BRIC nations as a percentage of GDP.

31%

54%

15%

Internet Economy as % Global GDP, 2020

% Breakdown of Connected Living Segments, 2020

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Connected Living Market: Breakdown by Segments Connected City leads with an estimated market potential of $392.24 Billion by 2020; Smart

Governance and Education services will contribute 50% of growth in this segment

2012 Market Segments ($ Billion)

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.

Home

Work

City

2020

*Unified Communication Products and Solutions

Communication*

Enterprise Social Software

Education

Transportation

Energy

Media and entertainment

Health

Automation and control

Enterprise Mobility

Governance

Banking and Financial

2.35

2.76

26.2

3.48

48.01

36

32.2

28

21.1

0.72

26.90

8.61

5.41

73.10

20.11

145.02

118

99.7

80

76.9

10.44

94.50

Connected Home Total 29.65 111.0

Connected Work Total 74.92 228.44

Connected City Total 122 392.24

Connected Living Total 226.83 731.70

Connected Living Market: Market Size Breakdown by Segments, Global, 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Modules and component providers

Device Vendors

Network Providers

Platform providers

Systems Integrators

Three Types of Connected Living Service Providers (Bundled Solutions)

1 2 3 4 5

SIM cards, sensors, Transponders

E.g. Sendum, Gemalto

Mobile device, appliance, utility, cars

E.g. Samsung, Apple

Applications, software, enabling technologies

E.g. SAP, Oracle

Interfaces, back-end, value-added services

E.g. IBM, Accenture

Integrators:

Platform Providers and Systems Integrators

Assimilators:

Device Vendors and Utilities

Aggregators:

Network Providers

Network, M2M, Wireless, Analytics

E.g. Telefonica, AT&T,

Cisco

End User

Connected Living, Value Chain Participants and Process

Connected Living: Value Chain of Smart Solutions

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11

Connected eco-system

Product-as-a-service:

Platform-as-a-service:

Integrator

Assimilators

Aggregators

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Connected Living: Types of Service Providers

#2 Big Data Deluge

2012 2020

1.2 Zettabyte

100.2 Zettabyte

Database

Data Warehouse

ERPs

CRMs

Systems

Web blogs

Social Media

Audio, Video

Excel, CSV

Online

Structured Data Unstructured Data

Social Sentiment Analysis

Data Analytics Marketing

Optimization - Micromarketing

Open Innovation

Discovery and Navigation

IT Economics

Security Intelligence

Asset Management

Data Visualization

+40% / Year

Types of Data-Enabled Services

Big Data Creates New Value Propositions for Businesses

Facebook Personalized

Marketing

Big Data

Big Data is growing at 40% annually

Data Traffic per Year, Global, 2012 and 2020

Source: IBM, Cisco, Frost & Sullivan Analysis

Big Data, Sources & Types of Services, 2014

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13

26 global smart cities by 2025 90 global sustainable cities by 2025

$1.5 trillion global market 2020 20% growth in smart energy

sector to 2020

#3 Smart City

Four Smart City Roles –

integrator, network service provider, pure-play product vendor, and Managed service provider

New Business Models–

BOO, BOT, BOM, and OBM

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#4 Sensorization of Things

2000s 2014 2015 2020 2025+ 2025+ 2020 2015 2014 2000s

Eye

Facial

Voice Touch

Gesture

Gaze controlled

Games

Mobile Eye Scrolling phones

Eye Tracking Analytics in cars

Pay with Face

Face Scanners

Tactical Identification

System

Voice Search

(Google)

Speech Recognition

Personal Digital

Assistant

AMOLED Touch

Screens

Holographic Touchscreen

3D Air gesture control of

Mobile devices

Sensory Tracking Technology in

Consumers Devices

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

3D modelling on computers

Brain

Mind Controlled

Games

Mind Remotes for

TV

Mind Controlled

Cars

Gesture Gaming

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Car Sharing

e.g., Zipcar

Clothes Sharing

e.g., Rent-the-Runway

Money Sharing

e.g., Lending Club

Goods Sharing

e.g., Ziloc

Space Sharing

e.g., Airbnb

Sharing Economy Market Potential*:

$155 billion by 2020

*Calculations are based on Airbnb's study on the money value of the shared economy.

Key Commodities Shared and Market Potential Forms of Sharing and Implications

Renting

Swapping

Reusing

Distributing

Lending

Circular Economy

Crowdsourcing

eMarketplaces

Source: Frost & Sullivan

#5 Sharing Economy

Suppliers

Manufacturers

Retailers

Consumers

Landfill/Waste Management

Linear Economy

Circular Economy

Reuse/ Redistribute

Refurbish/ Remanufacture

Recycle

$700 billion in consumer goods

material savings

$1.8 trillion per annum savings in avoiding waste in

textiles

$1.5 billion in collecting

household food waste annually in

the United Kingdom

Savings in reusing/refurbishing/recycling

Source: ESA; Ellen MacArthur Foundation; Frost & Sullivan

#6 Circular Economy

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Typical 3D Printing Process

#7 3D Printing While traditional production relies on removal of the material from the solid cast or

mold, 3D printing adds the layers of the material on the existing layers.

Design

Print

Finish

Source: Frost and Sullivan

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3D printing saves on energy by 40 to 65 percent as it eliminates shipping and other logistics activities and enables users to produce objects with lesser material

Traditional Manufacturing vs 3D Printing. Global, 2014

Cost

Speed

Design

Quality

Higher Cost of manufacturing & shipping

Less innovative designs due to cost constraints

More time to build final product

Creates more waste; subtractive process will compromise on precision

Up to 70% savings due on Prototyping costs

Allows for easy yet inexpensive innovation in design

Lesser time taken due to compressed design cycles

Lighter & smaller amount of waste; Higher precision with layer-by-layer

manufacturing.

Traditional Manufacturing

3D Printing

3D Printing vs Traditional Manufacturing

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Key Attributes of 3D Printing (continued)

Crowdsourcing 1 Small Batch

Manufacturing

2

Mass Customization 4 On-demand

Production

3

A website dedicated to the sharing of user-created digital designs

A contract manufacturing firm using 3D printing technologies with capability to fulfil small

production orders with high cost-effectiveness

Helped the reverse engineering of a Ferrari 312P engine by 3D printing the sand molds for

the engine

Adidas was one of the first companies to install the Objet Connex500

3D printing system from Stratasys.

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Year of Commercial Impact: Key Application Sectors

Co

mm

erci

aliz

ed

(20

12

-20

14

) T

o b

e C

om

mer

cial

ized

(2

01

5-2

01

6)

On

go

ing

R&

D

Bey

on

d 2

02

0)

Hobby (arts and crafts)

Jewellery

Household printing

Printing small to medium medical prosthetics

Prototypes for automotive industry (for example, instrument panels)

Retail prototypes

Rapid prototyping for large industrial applications

Components for aerospace (for example, air ducts, hinges, jet engine parts, wing spares, spare parts) and defence research and development Printing chocolate

Printing food

Printing toys

Printing bicycles

Clothing and apparel in fashion industry

3D printed furniture

Building construction

Industrial tools manufacturing

Life sciences R&D

3D printed complex metal systems

3D printed energy harvesters for power stations

Large aircraft parts

3D printed semiconductors/ICs

Smart prosthetics

Artificial ears

3D printed organs

3D

PR

INT

ING

TE

CH

NO

LO

GY

RE

AD

INE

SS

Digital and memory equipment

Digital and memory equipment and rechargeable batteries

3D printed consumer electronics

Consumer Applications

Medical, Automotive, Retail Applications

Industrial Applications

20

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Signs of Shortage

Technologies/ New Discoveries

Future Availability of Resources

+30% demand by 2030

• Smart water • Wastewater

treatment • Water desalination

Water desalination could cover close to 5% of the estimated gap in the supply of freshwater.

+40% demand by 2030

• Smart grid • Energy harvesting • Shale gas

Shale gas will contribute 46% of the total US gas supply - 2035.

+50% demand by 2030

• Genetically modified food (golden rice)

• Synthetic meat • Smart farming

Golden rice could deliver 15 to 20% of the global daily nutrition requirements by 2030.

Water Energy Food

Source: FAO; IEA; IFPRI; WHO; Frost & Sullivan

#8 Resource Nexus

2004 2013

ASIMO = $150,000 LUNA = $1,000

Commercialization of Robotics Steep fall in personal robot ownership prices from $150,000 to $1,000

• Non-commercial • Not for sale • Available only on a lending basis

• Commercial • Currently available on an auction basis • Expected to retail between $1,000 and

$3,000

Robotics for elderly care: assisted living

Robots as teaching assistants

Robots for household care

Robots as nannies

Robots for companionship

Robots as personal assistants

Robots at Home (Personal Robot Applications)

2010

$1.29 billion

2020

$17.39 billion

Personal Robots Market: Global, 2010 and 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan

#9—Rise of the Robots

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Deutsche Bahn Launches Mobility Integration Services

23

Integrated

booking Alternative

routing

Real-time information

of integrated means of

transport

Cross- & upsell-products

(Hotel, luggage service…) Social

travelling Current Services

Current Partners

Long-distance transport Flight Car Coach Rental car CarSharing Bicycle Taxi

Local public transportation

+ partners + partners

via

Philips Hue

Smart Technology Connectivity & Interoperability

Go-to-Market Strategy

Crowdsource Platform Play

Adding automation and intelligence to

hardware

Find the interoperable

controlling device – phone / TV

Launch service as a mobile app /

software

Open up APIs

Example – Philips Hue

Source: AT&T, Verizon and Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Smart lighting – wirelessly

controlled lighting Controlled through a

Wi-Fi enabled Smartphone and an

Smart App

Available exclusively in

Apple retail stores and App stores

Second version 1.1 launched with more

features such as Geofencing

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50 Disruptive Technologies

25

Top 50 Technologies - Selection Methodology

Global Tracking of

500+ Technologies

Across 9 Technology

Clusters

Step 1

IP Activity

Funding

Market Potential

Megatrend Impact

Global Adoption Potential

Industry/ Application Impact

Step 2 Selection of assessment criteria Weights assigned to each criteria based on

relative importance Scoring and ranking of each technology on each

criteria to determine ‘Intensity of Impact’

‘Year of Impact ‘

score

‘Intensity of

Impact’ score

A

B

Step 3

Su

b-C

on

stru

cts

Top-50 Technologies

Innovation Index

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Global Top 50

Technologies

Nanomedicine Biosimilars Cancer Immunotherapy Synthetic Biology Stem Cell Therapeutics Metabolomics

Big Wind Power Floating LNG Hydraulic Fracturing Heat Pumps Li-based Batteries

Solid Waste Upcycling Desalination Advanced Filtration Air Filtration Smart Metering

Wearable Electronics Wireless Charging

Printed/Flexible Electronics Smart Haptics & Touch

OLED Displays Nanoelectronics

Polymer Chameleons Self-healing Materials Biochemicals Superhydrophobic Coatings Antimicrobial Coatings Carbon Fibers Lightweight Composites

Quantified Self Touchless Sensing Energy Harvesting

Sensor Fusion M2M Communications

3D Printing Atomic Layer Deposition Multi-Material Joining Technologies Composites Manufacturing

Digital Tomosynthesis BioNEMS/Nanofluidics

Health Informatics Neuromodulation Techniques

Augmented Reality XaaS Platform Dark Data Cognitive Analytics

Information & Communication Technology

Health & Wellness

Sustainable Energy

Clean & Green Environment

Microelectronics

Materials & Coatings

Sensors & Controls

Medical Devices & Imaging Technology

Advanced Manufacturing & Automation

Context-Aware Computing Predictive Data Analysis

Neuromorphic Computing Virtual Reality

Waves of Innovation Leveraging Points of Convergence

3D Printing

Carbon Fibres

Sensor Fusion

New paradigm in Industry 4.0

paving the way for new players with disruptive

potential

Predictive Data

Analysis

Lightweight frames for aerospace,

defence, automotive

Controlled 3D printing

for predictive

maintenance

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Next Gen Connected Care Continuous and Personalized Healthcare

Context-Aware Computing

Quantified-Self

Cloud Storage

Patient Monitoring Center

Predictive Data Analysis

Connected

Healthcare

Augmented Reality for Plant Monitoring Enabling Higher Efficiency and Productivity

Industry 5.0?

Augmented Reality

M2M Communication Sensor Fusion

Predictive Analytics

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Innovation Kaleidoscope

Social Trends

Innovating to Zero

Health, Wellness,

& Well-Being

Innovation Ecosystem

Drivers

Transformational Shifts

Mega Trends

Technology Clusters

Medical Devices & Imaging Technology

Big Data

Fast-Forward to 2020: New Trends Transforming the World as We Know It

Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Society

Manoj Menon Twitter:@menon_manoj mmenon@frost.com

21/10/2014

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The 10 Key Industries of the Future

Market Potential* by 2020 ($ Billion)

Gro

wth

Po

ten

tial

** (

20

12–2

02

0)

Market Potential* by 2020 ($ Billion)

Gro

wth

Po

ten

tial

** (

20

12–2

02

0)

Top Mature Industries by 2020 Top Emerging Industries by 2020

*Relative score assigned for potential annual turnover (revenue/shipment/units/capacity) of the industry in 2020 **Growth competitiveness measured by qualitative factors such as new patents, innovation cycle, and cross-sector spillovers.

Oil and Gas

Pharma and Healthcare

Chemical, Materials, and

Food

ICT

Automobile

Metals and Mining

Energy And

Power

Aerospace and Defense

Engineering and Construction

Electronics

Virtual Commerce Big Data

3D Printing

Cloud Computing

Cyber Security

Personal Robotics

Wellness Industry

Urban Logistics

Alternative Energy

Waste Management

Source: Bloomberg; Frost & Sullivan