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Manion Lecture 2011

Supporting Slides

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1. Export market growth

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

0 1 2 3 4 5

1992

/201

0=10

0

Year

US (1992-97)

Euro-area (2010-15)*

GDP growthin key export markets

*IMF forecastfor euro-area

Source: IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook

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2. Fiscal and Financial Sector Vulnerabilities

Source: ECB, Eurostat, US Fed and HMT calculations

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-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% o

GD

P

Year

Canada 1989 onwards

UK 2007/8 onwards

Netborrowing

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% o

f GD

P

Year

Canada 1989 onwards

UK 2007/08 onwards

Netdebt

Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada)

3. Borrowing and debt

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-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% o

GD

P

Year

Canada 1989 onwards

UK 2007/08 onwards

Structuralnetborrowing

Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada)

4. Structural borrowing

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5. Bond yield spreads

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11

Basi

s po

ints

10-year yield spread to Bunds

Spain Portugal Italy UK France Ireland Greece

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6. Comparison of consolidations

Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada)

30

35

40

45

50

55

198919901991199219931994199519961997

% o

f GD

P

Public spending Receipts

Canadianpublicspending and receipts

30

35

40

45

50

55

% o

f GD

P

Public spending Receipts

UK publicspending and receipts

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7. Changes to Public Sector Employment*

Sources: OBR Economic & Fiscal Outlook March 2011. ONS Public Sector Employment Statistics Q4 2010. Employment Statistics for the Federal Public Service 1996 to 1997, TBCS. Statistics Canada (www.statcan.gc.uk)

85

90

95

100

0 1 2 3 4 5

19

94

/20

10

= 1

00

Year

Canadian Public Sector (1994 to 1999)

UK Public Sector* (2010 to 2015)

* UK Public sector excluding Public corporations (General Government).

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8. Civil Service Engagement: 2010 Civil Service People Survey

Source: Civil Service People Survey 2010

The Civil Service’s employee engagement framework views engagement as the emotional contribution staff provide to their organisation. We measure engagement using five questions:

I am proud when I tell others I work for [my organisation]

I would recommend [my organisation] as a great place to work

I feel a strong personal attachment to [my organisation]

[My organisation] inspires me to do the best in my job

[My organisation] motivates me to help it achieve its objectives

Civil Service benchmark 2010: 56%

Civil Service benchmark 2009: 58%

9. Drivers of Engagement