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MANAGING THE
INCREASE IN SEN Gareth Cheal & Lyn Frith
Swindon Borough Council
About Swindon
About Swindon
560,000 within 30 minutes
2.8m … 1 hour
7.1m … 90 minutes
18.8m … 2 hours
Connectivity
Swindon Growth Areas
SEND Context
• Commissioned research into a proportional high level of
provision and a high level of EHCPs, which recommended
further detailed analysis of SEND growth and demand.
SEND Strategic Board
Building capacity
Joint Commissioning and
place planning
Workforce development
Participation and Engagement
Co-production
Raising awareness
Partner engagement
Information and advice
Quality and Performance
EHCP Sub-group
Local Offer Sub-group
Personal Budget Sub-group
Mediation and Dispute resolution
Innovation
SEND Transport
What our data tells us
Proportion of SEN Pupils out of all
pupils at the end of each Key Stage
(2012/13)
Swindon England South West
Early years/Foundation 9% 12% 11%
Key Stage 1 19% 20% 20%
Key Stage 2 20% 23% 23%
Key Stage 4 28% 21% 20%
The proportion of children and young people with a statutory plan continues to rise compared to a national trend that has remained steady. At 3.8% in 2015 the proportion of statutory plans was well above the England average and all statistical neighbours.
The proportion of children and young people
identified as having SEND IS:
• Below national and regional benchmarks at
the end of the Early Years Foundation
Stage and Key Stage 2
• Broadly in line with national and regional
benchmarks at the end of Key Stage 1
• Significantly above national and regional
benchmarks at the end of Key Stage 4
What our data tells us
Compared to national benchmarks:
• Identification of children and young people
with behaviour, emotional or social difficulties
(now SEMH) is relatively high;
• Identification of children and young people
with speech, language and communication
needs (SLCN) and specific learning difficulties
(SPLD) is relatively low.
There was a rapid and significant increase in the diagnosis of children and young people with ASD in 2014 such that the proportion of the school population with ASD is now above the national average. This significant rise is reported to be due to a shift in responsibility for diagnosis from CAMHs to Community Paediatrics and the resultant clearing of previous backlogs
Our Strategy and Approach The SEN reforms challenge professionals to change how they work, to build a different relationship with children and families and give them more choice and control over decisions that are made about them. With a rapidly growing population we need to ensure the quality and sufficiency of high quality provision for all children and young people with SEND.
Joint commissioning and place planning
• Involve young people and parents in strategic commissioning;
• Strengthen the strategic overview and commissioning for SEND
• Undertake the JSNA
• Develop a SEND joint commissioning strategy
• Develop accurate management information systems to inform strategic planning
Building capacity:
• Build capacity across the system, particularly in mainstream schools
• Develop the workforce so that being outcomes focused and person-centred is at the
heart of their practice.
• Maintain termly SEND Forum events
• Establish SENCO network across the borough and SENCO champions to lead on
the change programme
• Liaise with wider workforce/providers, incl. schools, early years, post-16, children’s
and adults social care, health etc. to map development needs
• Ensure alignment between work to implement the requirements of the SEND
Reforms and Care Act
Building Capacity
SEND Forecasting
• What we do:
• Cohort survival model for secondary phase and
benchmarking with SEND colleagues (primary special,
Advisory teachers, SENAT. Aim to improve transition
planning through process.
• Specialist provision based model (range and cost)
• Based on current provision and expected growth.
• The model allows for assumptions to be made
about potential future provision and updates the
target range and expected budget for the next 10
years.
SEND Forecasting
Category School Average cost
per place (£) Current
Linear
2026 trend
2026 at differnce
between EHCP
and current
provision
2026 at
differnce
between
EHCP and
new provision
2026 @
2.8% of
overall
provision
Secondary & post 16
Special
Uplands
25,512
3,520,656
3,919,266
3,804,871
3,773,076
3,814,368
Crowdys
18,876
3,359,928
3,740,340
3,631,168
3,600,824
3,640,232
St Lukes
23,661
1,821,897
2,028,173
1,968,975
1,952,521
1,973,890
Primary Special
Brimble
21,742
1,674,134
1,939,498
1,863,343
1,842,176
1,869,666
Chalet
20,336
1,159,152
1,342,887
1,290,158
1,275,503
1,294,536
Nyland
24,156
1,014,552
1,175,367
1,129,216
1,116,388
1,133,047
Crowdys
22,459
-
-
-
-
-
SRP Secondary
HI
-
-
-
-
-
-
PD
21,137
401,603
447,073
434,024
430,397
435,107
SLCN
-
-
-
-
-
-
ASC
26,240
1,312,000
1,460,545
1,417,915
1,406,066
1,421,454
Complex
-
-
-
-
-
-
SpLD
18,562
556,860
619,908
601,814
596,785
603,316
SMEH
-
-
-
-
-
-
SRP Primary
HI
40,478
445,258
515,835
495,581
489,951
497,262
PD
23,570
424,260
491,509
472,209
466,845
473,812
SLCN
21,093
316,395
366,546
352,154
348,153
353,349
ASC
25,909
233,181
270,142
259,535
256,587
260,416
Complex
21,865
655,950
759,924
730,085
721,791
732,562
SpLD
-
-
-
-
-
-
SMEH
12,459
199,344
230,942
221,874
219,353
222,627
Primary, Secondary &
post 16
54,622
3,386,564
3,799,676
3,681,120
3,648,168
3,690,963
Total
19,213
20,481,734
23,107,630
22,354,041
22,144,585
22,416,605
Creating Places
• Since 2010 Swindon has created 240 additional special
school places at a cost of £6.65m (TCF, Maintenance,
s106 and corporate resources).
• Creative solutions identified eg. “class @”, expanding
special schools to 4 to 19.
• 2x Special Free Schools and 1 AP Free School
applications in wave 11.
Money
Estimated settlement 2016/17 £m Estimated Expenditure 2016/17 £m
Actions for the future to manage growth
•Manage growth within the existing
revenue pot.
•Re-designation of existing provision to
allow for growth.
•Role of mainstream schools.
•Changing the culture in Swindon.
Questions?