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November 2014
MANAGING FOR PROFITABILITY AS GROWTH ACCELERATES IN THE AUTOMOTIVE MARKET ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS AND TECHNOLOGY ARE KEY
Growth in the automotive markets continues to accelerate, but this rapid growth also brings more diversity, complexity and risk. Gone are the days when the automotive market primarily served mature and stable economies, growing at a modest and predictable pace. Emerging markets create an unprecedented demand for vehicles resulting in exponential growth and opportunity in certain parts of the world. Yet supplier networks are likely to still be in their infancy and lessons learned from mature markets may no longer apply.
At the same time consumer preferences are disrupting even mature markets. Vehicles themselves are undergoing a digital transformation, both in terms of safety and also for personal connectivity and entertainment. All these circumstances combine to present unprecedented opportunities as well as unprecedented challenges, not only in determining the where, what and why of growth, but also how to grow profitably. The right enterprise level tools and technology are keys to managing for profitability in the quest to secure market share.
WHERE?
While the automotive industry took a serious hit with the onset of the economic crisis in 2008, globally it has recovered and is experiencing significant growth. According to IHS Automotive (May 2014), global vehicle production has increased by 25 million units since 2009 and will increase by an additional 21 million units by 2021. But this growth will not be uniform across the globe. While the mature market in North America will continue to grow modestly, and Europe (also a mature market) is expected to (finally) rebound, China alone will account for half of this growth while Japan and South Korea will decline.
Indeed China is a driving force. According to McKinsey & Company China overtook the United States as the largest single-‐country market in 2010 and will contribute 35% of profits between 2011 and 20201. Yet even with this growth, market penetration in China will still be only 15%, which signals continued opportunity. But China alone, one of several emerging economies, is a very diverse market all by itself, with different provinces in different states of “emergence.” Some are starting to plateau while others explode. The
Key Takeaways ü According to IHS
Automotive (May 2014), global vehicle production has increased by 25 million units since 2009 and will increase by an additional 21 million units by 2021.
ü China overtook the United States as the largest single-‐country market in 2010 and will contribute 35% of profits between 2011 and 2020.
ü BRIC countries represent potentially huge opportunities, but in parts of the world characterized by high concentrations of population separated by huge distances and supported by poor infrastructures.
ü Consumer preferences are disrupting even mature markets. Vehicles themselves are undergoing a digital transformation.
ü Achieving profitable growth will require a diverse set of enterprise software including ERP, supply chain management, design tools and product lifecycle management, project and program management, analytics and visualization and talent management.
Managing for Profitability As Growth Accelerates in the Automotive Market Page 2 of 10
market complexities of just this one country of 3.748 million square miles (the fourth largest land mass in the world) create enormous hurdles to overcome. But if automotive OEMs and suppliers can beat these obstacles, the opportunity is tremendous.
And don’t forget the opportunity in other emerging (BRIC) countries and the rest of the world. These others represent potentially huge opportunities, but in parts of the world characterized by high concentrations of population separated by huge distances and supported by poor infrastructures.
These huge distances have an impact. The sheer size and complexity of the vehicle manufacturing process means a lot of the manufacturing must be done locally to ensure optimal efficiency. Being in the right place at the right time is critical. This means expanding operating locations, sometimes to new and distant parts of the world.
Figure 1: Automotive Operates in a Distributed Environment
Source: Mint Jutras 2014 Enterprise Solution Study
*All survey respondents in the “large automotive” category had more than 20 locations. We use 22 as an approximation where different groupings are being averaged.
The Mint Jutras 2014 Enterprise Solution Study found distributed environments very common in the automotive market. This annual study investigates goals, challenges and status and also benchmarks performance of enterprise applications with Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) at the core. In 2014 this study captured data from 65 respondents from the automotive industry, representing companies ranging from very small to very large. The
A Diverse Market The Automotive market referenced includes:
üOriginal Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) who make the vehicles
üTier 0.5 suppliers who make items like seat or dashboard assemblies as a finished sub-‐module for directly fitting to the vehicle
üTier 1 suppliers who also supply directly to the line
üTier 2 and 3 suppliers. including suppliers of wiring looms, plastics trim, metal formed parts, engine components, etc.
In this report, Mint Jutras references data collected from 65 participants from the automotive market in its 2014 Enterprise Solution Study.
“In economics, BRIC is a grouping acronym that refers to the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are all deemed to be at a similar stage of newly advanced economic development.”
Wikipedia
Managing for Profitability As Growth Accelerates in the Automotive Market Page 3 of 10
majority (64%) operate from more than one location and the number of operating locations expands quite significantly with growth.
Figure 1 segments these respondents by company size based on annual revenues:
• Small companies are those with annual revenues under $25 million. They are likely to be the tier 2 and 3 suppliers.
• Those in the lower-‐midmarket produce revenues between $25 and $250 million, and also tier 2 and 3 suppliers.
• The upper-‐midmarket is made up of companies in the range of $250 million and $1 billion in annual revenues and here might start to reach into higher tier (.5 and 1) suppliers.
• Large enterprises, those with revenues in excess of $1 billion are OEMs and the largest higher tier suppliers.
This expansion creates an interesting and challenging dynamic in the overall automotive supply chain. As the major automakers expand their reach into increasingly remote areas of the world, suppliers must follow—either building out new locations themselves, or complying with new regulations and shipping more globally, both efficiently and cost effectively. However in certain parts of the world, automakers will choose to (or be forced to) utilize local suppliers. This means either establishing a new supplier network, or adding complexity to existing supply chains, or most likely some combination of the two.
Where building out a new supplier network, particularly in emerging economies, automakers will face uncertainties in terms of quality of component products and reliability of suppliers. And it will be more important than ever to be able to connect easily with suppliers regardless of their level of technical sophistication. While interoperability has (for quite some time now) been growing in importance, suppliers in new economies will not have the same level of sophistication in either supporting systems or necessary infrastructure. So OEMs and higher tier suppliers will need to be able to adapt to the lowest common denominator, while also supporting the highest level of connectivity. Many of these new networks will be built from the ground up, accomplishing what could never have been accomplished without the Internet, leap frogging older methods of communication.
Capturing market share in these emerging companies will come at a significant cost. But not all opportunity is created equal. Enterprise level business software like ERP and surrounding applications will not quantify the market itself or tell you where the most market opportunity lies for your individual business. But these applications are essential in evaluating your ability to serve those markets profitably. ERP is necessary to:
• Manage the order processing and release management unique to the automotive industry
• Provide an accurate measure of costs
Enterprise level business software like ERP and surrounding applications will not quantify the market itself or tell you where the most market opportunity lies for your individual business. But these applications are essential in evaluating your ability to serve those markets profitably.
Managing for Profitability As Growth Accelerates in the Automotive Market Page 4 of 10
• Accurately assess demand • Determine asset utilization and help manage current capacity
ERP should also serve as a focal point of supply chain integration. Solutions that recognize and support standards such as MMOG/LE are necessary to reduce lead times and contain costs. And certainly the ability to plug into existing supplier exchanges is a big plus.
It will be equally important to augment these ERP and supply chain management applications with analytical tools that help you forecast and simulate production and sales levels, along with expected profits. It is no longer sufficient to do this at a very high macro level.
WHAT?
What products will you be bringing to market in terms of growth? If you sell only premium, high-‐end vehicles you will likely not be able to capitalize on the opportunities in emerging economies. If you concentrate of the “value-‐based” mid market, can you bring your costs down enough to compete here? Or are you limited only to the economy-‐priced end of the market? To answer the question of “What?” you need to get down to individual products by different locations. That might mean a lot of data. Your analytics need to get you to the right level of granularity with the right speed and visualization capabilities. Think big picture (i.e. pie chart, bar chart, scatter graph, etc.) because a picture (or visual representation) is worth a thousand words. But you better be able to drill down to the appropriate level of detail from that big picture.
At the same time, even in existing markets, new regulations are critical. “Compliance” by automotive standards means much more than regulatory reporting. Regulations affect product design for safety measures and environmental impact, including emissions. So the product you sell today might not lead to growth in the future. You might not even be able to continue selling current models or components designed specifically for current models. Therefore you need to get innovation right and you need to bring it to market quickly, from design to production to phase-‐out. This brings additional enterprise applications to the party for product design (computer assisted design or CAD) and full product lifecycle management (PLM).
And how do you manage the process from idea to design to production? It is highly likely that you have some sort of tools to help you manage projects, even if they just run on a desktop. But do these project management tools support the kind of collaboration between engineering and manufacturing? What about suppliers? Do they help you just manage individual projects or complete programs? Do they have the built in workflow management that insures nothing slips through the cracks in managing a multi-‐discipline, even multi-‐company kind of endeavor?
MMOG/LE
“MMOG/LE (short for Materials Management Operations Guideline / Logistics Evaluation) is a self-‐assessment tool used by auto suppliers to score their competency in materials handling and logistics. Developed by the The Automotive Industry Action Group (AIAG), this self-‐survey is designed to validate that the supplier has robust material planning and delivery processes in place to support overall business objectives. It is a required component of many automotive supplier programs, including Ford, GM, Chrysler, JLR, PSA, Volvo car and Volvo Truck.”
Source: Wikipedia
Managing for Profitability As Growth Accelerates in the Automotive Market Page 5 of 10
WHY?
Why are these new markets emerging? Why are there now whole new middle classes in parts of the world where previously there were only the very rich and the very poor? Because of technology. Of course that is an over-‐simplification of a very complex set of economic, technical, social, political and cultural issues, but technology has caused the world to shrink, or flatten, depending on your perspective. We communicate faster and more freely, which opens up a world of possibilities where once there were none, and technology has awakened whole populations that never knew anything beyond their own villages.
Yes, safety and environmental concerns are helping to shape features and driving product designs, but nothing is transforming vehicles and options as fast as technology. Just as business is undergoing a digital transformation, so are the vehicles themselves. We now have the concept of the connected vehicle – both from an information and entertainment perspective, and also from an Internet of Things (IoT) perspective. Just as sensors collect data on our shop floors, vehicles sense and collect data from their environments. Vehicles have been able to “tell” us when they need an oil change for almost a decade. They help us navigate through traffic. Now some automatically stop when they “sense” a pending accident and even park themselves.
This creates opportunity, not only for traditional tiered auto suppliers, but also for some suppliers that never participated in the automotive industry before. Some of this technology is introduced under the guise of safety, although much of it seems to be taking advantage of the desire for convenience and entertainment.
Who would ever have thought Bluetooth® technology would be commonplace, connecting drivers to the mobile devices that seem to be taking over many lives? At least the Bluetooth device keeps drivers’ hands on the wheel, if not their minds on their driving.
Even several years ago, the only use for a camera in a vehicle was in the hands of a passenger taking pictures or perhaps a surveillance camera in a taxi. Now rear-‐view cameras are standard features in some models, and not only in the very high-‐end vehicles. The United States will mandate them starting in model year 2018. How soon before they are ubiquitous? With new parking assistants, will the skill of parallel parking go the way of the skill of reading maps? As vehicles automatically brake when objects are detected, are poor driving habits being reinforced under the guise of safety features?
Clearly the growing market for videos and electronic games in the backseats of sport utility vehicles is a sign of the steady rise in the market for digital technology. This creates new and vast opportunities, not only for veterans of the automotive industry, but for new entrants as well.
Safety and environmental concerns are helping to shape features and driving product designs, but nothing is transforming vehicles and options as fast as technology. Just as business is undergoing a digital transformation, so are the vehicles themselves.
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These new entrants to the market will look want to look for enterprise software with the right industry-‐specific functionality and a software vendor with the right level of experience in order to come up to speed quickly. Doing business in this market is different.
HOW?
With the availability of these new technologies, consumers are demanding more: more technology, more differentiation, more features and functions. But of course they don’t want to pay more, so this only puts more pressure on making smart decisions and containing costs.
Enterprise applications like ERP have long focused on process—streamlining and automating business processes. This focus has produced good results, but it is no longer sufficient. Today growing companies, particularly those looking to capitalize on the accelerated growth of the automotive industry, will need to broaden their focus to include data, and the volume of data for decision-‐making is growing at an alarming pace. Without the proper tools to deal with this new “big data,” you will be forced to make decisions at a summary level that won’t give you the full picture. You will need to dive down to a more granular level.
Simple reporting will not be enough to determine how best to attack new markets and growth opportunities. You will need a level of analytics that provide real-‐time insights, and for this you need speed and proper visualization. When and how the data is presented will be critical to making timely and informed decisions.
Step one is ensuring profitable management of your current environment -‐ carefully collecting and managing all costs. Older solutions based on legacy infrastructure and technology won’t support this type of data-‐driven decision-‐making. Many in this situation recognize this and embark on a replacement strategy with one goal in mind: modernize their solution. While this is necessary, it is not enough to insure success.
It is also important to set business goals and measure progress. Those in the automotive industry that measure improvements and cost savings since implementing ERP produce very good results (Figures 2 and 3), but an alarming percentage (30-‐50%) simply do not measure selected improvements or reductions. Those with World Class ERP implementations measure more and produce double and triple the savings and improvements, including 59% more improvement in profits year over year, a metric that can and should be sustainable.
“Big Data”
“Big data is an all-‐encompassing term for any collection of data sets so large and complex that it becomes difficult to process using traditional data processing applications.
“The challenges include analysis, capture, curation, search, sharing, storage, transfer, visualization, and privacy violations.”
Source: Wikipedia
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Figure 2: Improvements Measured Since Implementing ERP
Source: Mint Jutras 2014 Enterprise Solution Study
*Improvement in profits is measured over the past two fiscal years
Figure 3: Cost Savings Measured Since Implementing ERP
Source: Mint Jutras 2014 Enterprise Solution Study
While measurement of your current environment is step one, don’t forget that in this growing market, you are likely to step out beyond your current location(s). As you expand your presence into new parts of the world, you will also want to standardize on processes and master data and therefore on enterprise applications. World Class manufacturers are clearly further along in implementing and enforcing standards (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Corporate Standards for ERP
Source: Mint Jutras 2014 Enterprise Solution Study
“World Class” Mint Jutras defines “World Class” in terms of the performance of ERP implementations.
Survey responses are used to measure cost savings and other improvements since implementing ERP, progress made in achieving goals and selected metrics of current performance, metrics that can apply universally to any business.
The top 15% in performance is categorized as “World Class.” World Class shown in Figures 2, 3 and 4 is based on all manufacturing respondents.
Managing for Profitability As Growth Accelerates in the Automotive Market Page 8 of 10
Cloud-‐based solutions can have a significant impact on speed of startup as well as implementation and enforcement of corporate standards. Mint Jutras has been tracking preferences for different deployment options for years now. Figure 5 shows those in the automotive industry have a clear preference for solutions delivered as software as a service (SaaS).
Figure 5: Which deployment options would you consider today?
Source: Mint Jutras 2014 Enterprise Solution Study
Participants were allowed to select as many deployment options as they wanted
For purposes here, we need to distinguish between “cloud” and “SaaS”.
• Cloud refers to access to computing, software, storage of data over a network (generally the Internet.) You may have purchased a license for the software and installed it on your own computers or those owned and managed by another company, but your access is through the Internet and therefore through the “cloud,” whether private or public.
• SaaS is exactly what is implied by what the acronym stands for: Software as a Service. Software is delivered only as a service. It is not delivered on a CD or other media to be loaded on your own (or another’s) computer. It is accessed over the Internet and is generally paid for on a subscription basis. It does not reside on your computers at all.
Using these definitions, we can confidently say all SaaS is cloud computing, but not all cloud computing is SaaS. While a hosted solution, or even one deployed on your own premises might be accessible through the cloud, you know for sure that a SaaS-‐based solution definitely is. Implementing a corporate standard, deployed as SaaS, can help enforce standards while bringing new sites up quickly and consistently, even in very remote parts of the world where not only automotive manufacturing experience but also IT talent and expertise might be rare.
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DON’T FORGET THE PEOPLE: TALENT MANAGEMENT And, therefore, in your expansion, don’t forget the people. Profitable growth requires new talent. You not only will need to staff new locations, but technology-‐driven innovation may also require new skill sets. Manufacturing has traditionally viewed labor simply as a cost to be managed, and the automotive industry is no exception. But as production facilities become more automated, we have new profiles of workers. Human capital management, including recruiting and talent management, takes on a higher priority. The category of Human Capital Management (HCM) as enterprise software is not necessarily new, but it is often ignored. Look for new and better support for recruiting, learning and performance management, along with the traditional aspects of human resource management.
SUMMARY
Growth in the automotive market continues to accelerate, moving beyond mature markets into emerging economies and new parts of the world. These new markets are often categorized by high concentrations of population, separated by enormous distances and poor technical and logistical infrastructures, adding new and challenging market complexities. At the same time markets and automotive products themselves are being disrupted by digital transformation. All these factors combine to present unprecedented opportunities, but with those opportunities come unprecedented challenges.
Sustainable and profitable growth can be achieved, but only with the careful analysis of the opportunities and well-‐managed execution of strategies, supported by the right enterprise tools and technology. ERP is table stakes today, but ERP must support the unique requirements of the automotive industry. And ERP alone is not enough. You will also need to:
• Manage an increasingly complex supply chain, and perhaps connect into supplier exchanges
• Manage from idea to production with modern computer assisted design (CAD) tools and product lifecycle management
• Elevate project from the desktop and possibly add program management
• Effectively recruit, manage and retain talent with the appropriate support from talent management applications.
• Expand your focus from “process” to also include “data” with powerful analytics and visualization
The right enterprise level tools and technology can make all the difference in your quest to secure your share of this burgeoning market. Put these solutions in the cloud and you might grab that share even faster.
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1 Bigger, Better, Broader: A perspective on China’s auto market in 2020, McKinsey & Company, November 2012
About the author: Cindy Jutras is a widely recognized expert in analyzing the impact of enterprise applications on business performance. Utilizing close to 40 years of corporate experience and specific expertise in manufacturing, supply chain, customer service and business performance management, Cindy has spent the past 9 years benchmarking the performance of software solutions in the context of the business benefits of technology. In 2011 Cindy founded Mint Jutras LLC (www.mintjutras.com), specializing in analyzing and communicating the business value enterprise applications bring to the enterprise.