MANAGING ARCTIC SEA ICEMANAGING ARCTIC SEA ICE

S. Pfirman1, 2; R. Newton2; B. Tremblay3, 2 C. Fowler4

1. Environmental Science Department, Barnard College, New York, NY 2. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY 3. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC3. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC4. (ret) Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Univ. Colorado at Boulder, CO

Supported by: NSF OPP ARCTIC SYSTEM SCIENCE, ONR

Outline

Sea Ice Distribution and Transport Background Sea Ice Distribution and Transport Background Potential for Sea Ice Contamination Analysis of “Alien Ice” Formation Transport and Analysis of Alien Ice Formation, Transport and

Melting Increasing Inter Sea Ice Interconnectivity Increasing Inter-Sea Ice Interconnectivity Connection Between Sea Ice and Surface Ocean

Transport?Transport? Public Opinions on the Arctic

M t O ti Management Options

The Last Arctic Sea Ice Refugeg3

A i As summer sea ice diminishes, the region north of Canada and north of Canada and Greenland is likely to retain ice for longer than other areas of the Arctic

This region, plus its ice h d h ld b shed should be

recognized and managed as a special areap

The More Aggressive Ice Melt Models …

usually project some

4

… usually project some September sea ice

through the end of the gcentury

Based on Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, GRL 2006

Consensus on Likely Location of the Last Sea Ice Refuge (Pfirman et al 2009)Last Sea Ice Refuge (Pfirman et al. 2009)

Observations Models5

Model projections also indicate future accumulation of sea ice in this region.  Shown is the September 

(2040 2049) i i j d

Fowler and Maslanik depiction of Arctic sea ice age in September 2010.  Older sea ice is usually thicker than new i d t id i d l i th mean (2040‐2049) sea ice concentration projected 

by the Community Climate System Model (version 3, CCSM3), A1B global warming scenario (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/01/arctic‐

sea‐ice‐decline‐in‐the‐21st‐century/; Holland et al., 2006).

ice due to ridging and annual ice growth.This image shows the oldest and thickest ice has collected in a narrow band along the northern flank of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.

Sea Ice ExtentS t b 2008 d F b 2009September 2008 and February 2009

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/38000/38284/arctic_min_max_map.jpg

Projected May Sea Ice Concentration

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Projected July Sea Ice Concentration

Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum

8Decade 2050 Maximum Mean MinimumKelly et al., 2010

Projected November Sea Ice Concentration

Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum

9Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum

Kelly et al., 2010

States have the right to exploit resources within their Exclusive Economic Zones EEZswithin their Exclusive Economic Zones -- EEZs

“The EEZ is defined as that portion of the seas and oceans extending up to 200 nautical miles in which coastal States have the right to explore and exploit natural explore and exploit natural resources as well as to exercise jurisdiction over marine science research and environmental

”protection.”

http://www.eohttp://www.eoearth.org/article/Exclusive_economic_zone_%28EEZ%29

Reviving Arctic oil rush, Ottawa to ti i ht i i auction rights in massive area

NATHAN VANDERKLIPPENATHAN VANDERKLIPPECALGARY— From Thursday's Globe and MailPublished Wednesday, May. 16, 2012 10:15PM EDTLast updated Thursday, May. 17, 2012 7:17AM EDT

174 comments

Ottawa has placed 905 000 hectares of the northern offshore up for bids Ottawa has placed 905,000 hectares of the northern offshore up for bids, clearing the way for energy companies to snap up exploration rights for an area half the size of Lake Ontario. The scale of the offer indicates eagerness in the oil patch to drill for new finds in Canada’s northern waters less than two pyears after such plans were put on hold following the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico and a major Arctic drilling safety review.• ExxonMobil has signed an alliance with Russian state oil firm Rosneft to

explore jointly for high-latitude oil. • Apache, Shell and BP are all working to conduct seismic testing in the

Alaskan offshore this year.

C i

P i l C i E i d

Contaminants

Potential Contaminant Entrainment and Transport by Sea Ice

Contaminant Sources

Contaminant Sources14

Meridian Fall/Winter 2008Meridian Fall/Winter, 2008

Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, 2009

Contaminant Incorporation in Sea Icep

Air Quality Processes Air Quality Processes Research Division, The

Meteorological Service of Canada

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Contamination_pathways_large.jpg

Contaminant Redistribution by Ice

PCB d L d l l l ll d A l/M 1993 PCB and Lead in large volume snow samples collected April/May, 1993 [colored dots]. Back trajectories of sea ice drift indicate drift paths of the ice floes. Forward trajectories are shown by dashed lines. Small black dots on the trajectories indicate Januarys and Junes.

From Pfirman, Gregor, Rigor, Koerner, Kane, unpublished.

Many Contaminants Are Particle Reactive:S I S di t E t i t L tiSea Ice Sediment Entrainment Locations

Color key: 0-20 m depth pink 20-25 m red25-35 m yellow

Pfirman and Haxby, in prep.

Sea Ice Surface Sediment ConcentrationSediment Concentration

http://www.agu.org/pubs/eos-news/supplements/2007/images/28-287_3.png

Fate of Contaminated Ice?19

Distribution of 25 km x 25 k l 25 km sea ice parcels = “floes” formed in < 50 water depth, therefore could entrain could entrain contaminated sediments

Arctic Sea Ice Conveyor

Atmospheric Deposition

Surface Melt/Ablation

Marginal Ice Zone Release

Annual Ice Growth

East Greenland, Barents Shelf

Siberian, Beaufort Shelf

Barents Shelf

Deep Arctic BasinAdapted from Pfirman et al., 1990

Future Arctic Sea Ice Conveyor?

Atmospheric Deposition

Surface Melt/Ablation

Marginal Ice Zone Release

Annual Ice Growth

East Greenland, Barents Shelf

Siberian, Beaufort Shelf

Deep Arctic Basin

e.g. Tynan and DeMaster, 1997

Annual Advection of Sea Ice Formed in <50m Water Depth, as of January 200450m Water Depth, as of January 2004

2003/42003/42002/32001/22001/2

Most 2005/6 and 2006/7 <50 m Siberian shelf ice melted in largely in place, but 2007/8 ice that was advected offshore survived summer meltingsurvived summer melting

June 2008 November 2008

“Ali I ”

A l i f i h f i

“Alien Ice”

Analysis of ice that forms in one country’s EEZ and melts elsewhere

EEZ Analysis of Ice Formation, Transport and Melting

Tracking distribution of 25 km x 25 km

sea ice parcels … “floes”Transport and Melting

Uses pattern recognition to create velocity vectors from

sea ice parcels … floes

create velocity vectors from features such as the edges of flows or visible ridges. These vectors are interpolated to a 25-km grid.g

This vector field is combined with the sea-ice concentration maps to discern when ice is formed or melted.

Each formation or melt event represents a 25 km X 25 km "pixel" or "grid point" going from open water to ice covered or vice versa. The virtual "floes" or the “ice-tracked parcels" can be translated into an area of ice formed by multiplying by 625multiplying by 625.

Alien Ice FormationBetween the 1980s and 2000s

Ice formation area > 4%# “fl ” f d > 18%# “floes” formed > 18%The "ice formation area" is the area of ice over which sea-ice forms in a year --corresponds roughly to the Seasonal Ice ZoneI l th t t l f i f d ill b h l th th i f ti In general the total area of ice formed will be much larger than the ice formation area, since ice forms repeatedly in "ice factories" and is blown out into the ice pack.

1979- 1999-19791988

19992008

Alien Ice Meltingg

Between the 1980s and 2000s: Between the 1980s and 2000s: Ice melt area > 28%# “floes” melted > 30%

1979- 1999-19791988

19992008

I S I I i i

I i i d /

Inter-Sea Ice Interconnectivity

Increasing sea ice speeds/decreasing transit times

“Positive trend in the mean speed of Arctic sea ice” P Rampal J Weiss and D Marsan JGR 2009P. Rampal, J. Weiss, and D. Marsan, JGR, 2009

Buoy data speed > from 1979–2007:uoy da a speed o 979 007:Winter +17%/decade

Summer +8.5%/decade

Trends in Arctic sea ice drift and role of wind forcing: 1992–2009Gunnar Spreen, Ron Kwok, and Dimitris MenemenlisGEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS VOL 38 2011GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, 2011

“In conclusion, the Arctic Basin sea ice drift speed increase between 1992 d 2009 i h l (10 6% ± 0 9%/d d ) h h 1992 and 2009 is much larger (10.6% ± 0.9%/decade) than the wind speed increase ( 1.5%/decade).

For many regions (e.g., Central Arctic), however, wind speed trends play a role in the observed drift speed changes In other regions play a role in the observed drift speed changes. In other regions (e.g., near coastlines), where the wind trend is negative or neutral, changes in the ice cover, e.g., a thinner, less compact and weaker ice cover, are a more likely cause for the observed ice drift speed i increase.

The ice drift trend is strongest in the second half of the observed period (27% ± 2%/decade during 2000–2009; increases to 46% ± 5%/decade after 2004) concurrent with a strong reduction in sea ± 5%/decade after 2004), concurrent with a strong reduction in sea ice extent and thickness.

The Arctic Basinwide wind trend during that time period is at most 5% ± 1%/ decade, however, reaches up to 20%/decade in the Central ± %/ , , p %/Arctic.”

Export of Export of Alien Ice from Russia

Export of Alien Ice Alien Ice from Canada

Export of Ali I f Alien Ice from Alaska

Annual average ice flux for each 5-year periodfor each 5 year period

Marked Decrease in Transit Time f R i t C dfrom Russia to Canada

S f O T

C i B S I d S f

Surface Ocean Transport

Connection Between Sea Ice and Surface Ocean Transport?

Ice Transports River-Influenced Pl kt It S fPlankton on Its Surface

How does the underHow does the under-ice ocean move relative to ice?

www.ice-diving.com/ reports/report.php?uid=30020Pfirman et al., 1997

Arctic Freshwater is Largely Governed by River Runoff

Schlosser et al.

Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH)HCH f h id l d i id d i h 20 h HCH was one of the most widely used pesticides during the 20th century

Production and use phased out during the 1990s Production and use phased-out during the 1990s

Li YF, Macdonald RW, Ma JM, Hung H, VenkateshS. Sci Total Environ. 2004 25;324(1-3):115-39.

The alpha HCH burden in the Arctic Ocean The alpha-HCH burden in the Arctic Ocean started to accumulate in the early 1940s and reached the highest value of 6670 t in 1982, 1 year before China banned the use of technical HCH

Since then the burden of alpha-HCH in Arctic waters has decreased quickly by an average annual rate of approximately 270 ty(-1) during the 1990s, decreasing from 4220 t in 1990 to 1550 t in 2000.

The complete elimination of alpha-HCH from Arctic waters would require another two decadesArctic waters would require another two decades.

The “Freshwater Switchyard”P S hl W M S thi J M St l R F i d i h B N t E M t H L C F lP. Schlosser, W.M. Smethie, Jr., M. Steele, R. Friedrich, B. Newton, E. Motz, H. Lee, C. Fowler

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:yBz-k60HON-iVM:http://psc.apl.washington.edu/switchyard/Images/sy-map.gif

Switchyard section and survey

2011 Switchyard UW stations

2011 Switchyard LDEO section

P. Schlosser, W.M. Smethie, Jr., M. Steele, R. Friedrich, B. Newton, E. Motz, H. Lee, C. Fowler

Mean residence times: < 10 years in top 50 m y p

2008 2009

P. Schlosser, W.M. Smethie, Jr., M. Steele, R. Friedrich, B. Newton, E. Motz, H. Lee, C. Fowler

Origin of Switchyard Freshwater

P. Schlosser, W.M. Smethie, Jr., M. Steele, R. Friedrich, B. Newton, E. Motz, H. Lee, C. Fowler

P bli O i i

A i t l 9 000

Public Opinions

Approximately 9,000 randomly sampled interviews conducted in nine separate conducted in nine separate population in November 2010

Korea seeks bigger role in Arctic

2012-05-15 22:59

Energy-hungry emerging economy eyes resources reserves, shipping lanes, permanent status at Arctic Council

Korea is stepping up its foray into the Arctic as melting ice caps are opening up a treasure Korea is stepping up its foray into the Arctic as melting ice caps are opening up a treasure trove of untapped resources, new sea routes and potential for scientific discovery.

Despite its late entry and lack of major energy corporations, Korea can harness its edge in shipbuilding and engineering in one of the world’s last uncharted frontiers, experts say.

Korea is hoping to boost its presence in the far north by becoming a permanent observer to the Arctic Council an intergovernmental forum designed to address Arctic issues to the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum designed to address Arctic issues. Norway and Finland have already rallied behind Korea, according to government and diplomatic sources.

M O iManagement Options

WWF/Coca Cola “Arctic Home” Campaign

Potential Mechanisms (from WWF Canada)

Oceans Act MPASArctic Home Campaign57

National Marine Conservation Areas and Reserves

National Marine Conservation Areas and “With the leadership of Reserves

National Wildlife Areas

SARA’s Critical Habitat

With the leadership of local people in Canada and Greenland, WWF

ill k t d l SARAs Critical Habitat

Fisheries closures/Habitat protection under the Fisheries Act

E l i ll d Bi l i ll Si ifi t A

will work to develop a plan for this area of ice high in the Arctic, to

Ecologically and Biologically Significant Areas Identification

Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems/Sensitive Benthic Areas protection

offer a future to the polar bear and meet the needs of Inuit ” Benthic Areas protection

Marine World Heritage Sites

RAMSAR sites

needs of Inuit.

Particularly Sensitive Sea Areas

Special Areas under MARPOL

Managing the Arctic’s Sea Ice RefugiaPfirman, S. L.; Lovecraft, A.L., Tremblay, B.; Newton, R.; Fowler, C.M t l K wl d t A ti A il 2012Montreal: Knowledge to Action, April 2012

58

Consensus on general refuge location Within Canadian and Within Canadian and

Greenland National EEZs But size and exact location

• Resource management would require basin-scale monitoring and planning

will shift from year to year

“Ice shed” source region

p g• Annual review of scientific

data could be translated into h h ld f i i i hi encompasses central Arctic

and perhaps Siberian Shelf seas – international

thresholds of activity within different regions to manage both summer refuge regions Shelf seas – international

aspectas well as their ice sheds

World Heritage Sites

936 sites including 45 marine

Sites59

936 sites, including 45 marine, such as the Galápagos Islands and the Great Barrier Reef

UNESCO World Heritage sites have been fairly successful at preserving cultural and 

hy i al lo atio of i o ta e Sites must be of "outstanding universal value" e.g. "contains the most important and significant natural habitats for in-situ

conservation of biological diversity, including those containing threatened

physical locations of importance.  But, while the sea ice is of vital cultural and physical importance to many peoples icespecies of outstanding universal value from the point of view of science or

conservation"

Property of the state on whose territory the site is located, but

physical  importance to many peoples, ice refugia do not have static locations. 

Property of the state on whose territory the site is located, but preservation is in the interest of the international community

Marine Protected Areas The IUCN  Marine Protected Areas 

designation is a more promising co cept butconcept, but it remains to be seen if it can permitcan permit flexibility in management to provide pfor annual changes in sea ice over decades. 

An adaptive governance system including monitoring and multi-level policy implementationmulti-level policy implementation

Lovecraft and Meek Proposal (ICASS 2011) Designed to account for the special properties of sea ice (e.g.

creating uniform legal categories tied to ice rather than either land or sea) so that the system can continue to provide diverse services in a holistic fashion rather than piecemeal in isolated locations.

Two kinds of sea ice service protections: 1. a continuous refuge governing a singular “ice shed” that may remain as the

minimum 2. a discontinuous set of protected spaces would fluctuate given sea ice conditions

on an annual basis

In both cases accurate and timely sea ice data would have to be:a) available and delivered to institutions governing sea iceb) used to create annual legally binding policy plans related to species, activities,

d and resource usec) agreed upon and enforced internationally

Conclusions

From the 1980s to 2000s: Alien EEZ ice formation rate > 18%

(primarily in the Pacific Sector)

/ Melt/deposition area influenced by alien ice >30% (primarily in the Pacific Sector)

More sea ice that formed over shelves melts completely over deep waters of the central Arctic Basinwaters of the central Arctic Basin Releasing freshwater, sediments,

contaminants

I t i h i d Inter-sea ice exchange increased

Conclusions, continued,

As the total amount of space in the Arctic that As the total amount of space in the Arctic that can preserve a diversity of sea ice system services shrinks the use of that space will services shrinks, the use of that space will become crowded with potentially competing interestsinterests An adaptive governance system of monitoring and

multi-level policy implementation – regional, national, p y p g , ,international -- focused on the sea ice services tied to marine and coastal areas will be required

Lovecraft and Meek Proposal (ICASS 2011)

E lidExtra slides

Origin of Switchyard freshwater

Only a small amount of “Russian” ice k it t th C di EEZmakes its way to the Canadian EEZ

Seasonal Ice Zone (SIZ)I C t ti M h A tIce Concentration, March – August

1988 2007

23 April 2009—McGill Newton, Schlosser, Spieler

Periodic extensive lti / l f melting/release from

alien EEZ ice exported i t d t f th into deeper waters of the Pacific sector

Sea ice Melt (discrete melt events)

Impact of Summer Change in Sea Ice Di ib i

CCSM3 – Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, 2006

Distribution

Marginal ice zone situated over deep basin, literally …literally … 

“Off the Shelf”

http://www.grida.no/graphics/arctic/arcticrelief.jpg

The Arctic Strikes BackW A i /C ld C i

75Warm Arctic/Cold Continent …

Jim Overland, NOAA

Pfirman, Haxby, Eicken, Jeffries, Bauch, GRL, 2004

Pfirman et al., 2004