Technology Forecasting

Lesson 2

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“Those who cannot remember the pastare fated to repeat it”

George Santayana

“If I have seen further, it is by standing onthe shoulders of giants”

Isaac Newton

“The question that faces the long range planner is not what we should do tomorrow, it is - what do we have to do

today to be ready for an uncertain tomorrow?”Peter Drucker

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WHAT IS TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING?

The description or prediction,

using a logic that yields relatively consistent results,

of a foreseeable technological innovation, specific scientific refinement, or likely scientific discovery,

that promises to serve some useful function,

with some indication of the most probable time of occurrence.

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USES OFTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING

Identify developments

Time scale estimation

Policy reorientation

Operational decision making

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Strategic technology planning

Forecasting technology Analyze and diagnose the environment Analyze and predict the market and customer

trend and change of trend Analyze the internal organization Sketch the vision & mission Re-design the organizational structure and

activity Execute the plan through operations

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BASIC TYPES OF TECHNIQUES

EXPLORATORYextend the past

NORMATIVEstart from the future

COMBINATIONusually necessary

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The key attributes in technology forecasting

Performance growth Complexity, efficiency, capacity, size, accuracy,

compactness Substitution possibility & speed, paradigm

shift or trajectory evolution Penetration share Diffusion rate

Allergy, deviation, enforcement, self-reinforcement

Breakthrough possibility & timing Value cluster

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Technology forecasting methods

Surveillance Scan the environment and link to the source of innovation

for quick adjustment & adoption Expert opinions

Use the Delphi method to converge the common focus/foci Trend analysis

Trace the time-series data and identify the evolutionary pattern and the driving forces

Modeling Articulate a forecasting function composed several critical

influencers Scenario analysis

Preview possible events and evolution patterns

S-curved technology evolution

time

Perfo

rmanc

e

current

Future trends

SCENARIOS