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Making the Most from UKCS Exploration
Simon TooleDirector – Licensing, Exploration & Development
Prospex Fair 11/12 Dec 2007
• UKCS Undiscovered Resource Potential
• Fallow Process Success
• Promote Licence Statistics
• Licensing and 25th Round
• West of Shetland Task Force
• BERR 2007 Promote CD
• DEAL Data Release
Creaming Curve Analysis
Least Mature
0
50
100
150
200
300
4-8 8-16 16-32 32-64 64-128 128-256 256-512 512-1024 1024-2048
P50 unrisked recoverable resources (MMBOE)[Only leads with >=5% Chance of Success used]
Southern North Sea / Irish Sea
Nu
mb
er o
f le
ads
250Northern North Sea
West of Shetland
Central North Sea
Ave
rag
e ch
an
ce o
f su
cces
s (%
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
18
16
Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources in the UKCS shown at different levels of Geological Risk
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 5 10 15 20
Geological Chance of Success Cutoff (%)
millio
n b
oe
upper estimate
central estimate
lower estimate
Level for BERR
estimate
Potential Undiscovered UKCS Resources
Approx 9.4 bn boe - 3.4 WOS/S - 0.8 NNS - 4.5 CNS - 0.7 SNS
WOS
SNS & EIS
0.3
3.4
Incl leads > 20% COS
Incl leads > 5% COS
CNS
NNS
0.20.7
0.80.2
1.2
4.5Basin Creaming Curves
vs Lead Database
(bn boe)
?UKCS Creaming Curvevs Lead Database 2 bn
9 bn
Incl leads > 20% COS
Incl leads > 5% COS
(bn boe)
Status of 148 released blocks still under evaluation
Activity is on the way – 43 subareas
BR wells committed
FDP in preparation
BR plan in progress
Relinquishment on the way – 52 subareas
Relinquishments are being processed,
BR Drop decision made
Currently under discussion – 53 subareas
Previously drilled but now fallow again
or proposing rescue work plan
or making rescue Drill or Drop decision
Status of other 155 Fallow Discoveries (current, but some decisions to end 2007 still changing)
Discovery too small – 19
(now just part of fallow block)
Class A – 72
(Pre-development feasibility studies, Well or new seismic AFE'd
Significant studies, Infrastructure full or none available)
Class B – 52
Under discussion (mixture of newly identified and released on website)
Fallow class BR - 12
Rescued with firm plan for activity
Traditional Vs Promote Licences - Observations from 21, 22 & 23rd Rounds
• Overall similar # licences drilled (21 Prom, 24 Trad).• Anticipated drill rate (full cycle 21st Round) – Trad 13/35
(37%), Prom 16/54 (30%).• As expected, # of Promote wells build later in licence (farm
out required, need to shoot seismic). Associated rig & new seismic time pressure.
• Quick cycling via tough Promote 2 year ‘continuation’ point – typically 40% go through based on ‘firm wells’ or ‘new seismic + contingent well’.
• Overall Promote potentially commercial success rates:
– Exploration wells ~ 30%
– Appraisal wells ~ 70%
Licensing Strategy
• Annual Rounds
• 25th Round early 2008
• Cumulative Acreage
Incl. SEA 7
• Focussed Terms
Traditional
Promote
Frontier
7
8
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
WEST OF SHETLAND TASKFORCE
http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/UKpromote/wos_task.htm
Area of high exploration activity potential
Industry/Government TaskForce addressing gas infrastructure needs
30+ companies with interests in WOS
Ca. 60 licences WOS
West of Shetland Activity
2007 Promote CD
Promote CD Opportunities
44 Leads & 5 Discoveries
Maps, Stratigraphic columns and Cross Sections
In Place and Reserve Estimates Play summaries
CD available at DTI stand
West of Britain North Sea
Unlicensed Opportunities
5 Leads: (Est Reserve Range)A - 33-51-76 mmboB - 12-19-31C - 17-26-37D - 9-14-20E - 10-16-24
1 Discovery (21/24-4):Untested 35 ft net reservoir17-27-41 mmbo
Multiple Opportunities - 21/24
One of the largest undrilledUKCS structures:
High Risk with Potential reserves of
1.4 - 2 - 2.8 billion barrels
West of Britain 214/1