Making sense of falling crime in Scotland

Dominic MunroScottish Government

International Policing Conference14 November 2013

Fall in recorded crime since 2006/7

• Recorded crime down 35%

• Housebreaking down 30%

• Theft of cars down 62%

• Vandalism down 55%

• Knife crime down 60%

• Homicide down 48%

What’s causing the

fall in crime?

Evidence Account

Crime Statistics

STEEP Analysis Testing

Methodology

• Findings are reasonable rather than conclusive

Social and demographicTechnologicalEconomicEnvironmentalPolicy and Practice

Heterogeneous and multi-factorial

ABCDEFG

Breach of the peace (70,075)

Other miscellaneous offences (66,773)

Common assault (60,955)

Drunkenness (5,618)

Other theft (58,704)

Shoplifting (26,449)

Housebreaking (21,515)

Fra

ud (

8,8

98)

Thef t f rom a motor v ehicle by OLP (6,159)

Thef t of a motor v ehicle (5,731)

Oth

er

cri

me

s o

f d

ish

on

es

ty (

5,2

04

)

Th

eft

by

OL

P

(3,2

39

)

Drugs (34,688)

Crimes against public justice (23,401)

Handling an offensive weapon(4,015)

Other

crimes

(335)

Vandalism (56,413)

Fire-raising (3,066)

A

C

B

D

E

G

F

Miscellaneous offencesDishonestyFire-raising, vandalism etc.Other crimesNon-sexual crimes of violenceSexual offences

Note: Excludes motor vehicle offences

A Sexual assault (3,008)

B Rape & attempted rape (1,462)

C Other sexual offences (2,689)

D Offences involving prostitution (534)

E Homicide, serious assault and attempted murder (3,734)

F Robbery (1,832)

G Other non-sexual crimes of violence (1,964)

Crimes with highest socio-economic costs

Change in crime types: 2006/07 – 2012/13

Vand

alism

etc

Oth

er th

eft

Theft

from

a m

otor

veh

icle

Theft

of a

mot

or v

ehic

le

Hou

sebr

eaki

ng

Crim

es a

gain

st p

ublic

justi

ce

Dru

gs

Han

dlin

g off

ensiv

e w

eapo

ns

Theft

by

open

ing

lock

fast

pla

ces

Serio

us a

ssau

lt &

att

empt

ed m

urde

r

Shop

liftin

g

Fire

-rai

sing

Robb

ery

Oth

er

Oth

er

Sexu

al a

ssau

lt

Frau

d

Offe

nces

ass

oc'd

with

pro

stitu

tion

Hom

icid

e

Oth

er c

rime

Rape

and

att

empt

ed ra

pe

Oth

er in

dece

ncy

-80000

-70000

-60000

-50000

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

Note: crime is at a 39 year low, even when vandalism is stripped out

Analysis of crime reduction: age

8-17 year olds - contribution to fall in cleared-up crime

TOTAL CRIME 48%TOTAL CRIME + MISC OFFENCES 60%

Violence

Sexual Offences

Dishonesty

Vandalism, fireraising, malicious conduct, etc.

Drugs/other crimes

Total Crimes

Miscellaneous

Total Crimes & Offences

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

-57

-3

-50

-58

-48

-52

-38

-45

Cleared-up youth crime: % Change from 08-09 to 12-13

Analysis of crime reduction: geography

2009 20120

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

15% 85%

Crime (SIMD definition) in 2009 and 2012: split by 15% most deprived and other 85%

STEEP Analysis

• Social and demographic• Technological• Economic• Environmental• Policy and Practice

What was actually happening to the identified crime drivers in Scotland during relevant time frames?

Demographics: Young Males

19811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,00019-21 16-18

Number of young males 1981-2012

Youth behaviour

2004 2006 2008 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

13 year olds 15 year olds

Hang around the street (at least weekly); 13 and 15 year olds (%)

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20128

9

10

11

12

13

Scotland England and Wales

Litres of pure alcohol sold per adult p.a.: Scotland vs England & Wales

Alcohol

19301934

19381942

19461950

19541958

19621966

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

UK Avg Alcohol consumptionScottish Crimes + offences

Lit

res

or p

ure

alco

hol p

er c

apit

a p.

a.C

rimes and offences

UK alcohol sales and Scottish crimes and offences

Alcohol

Technological

19901991

19921993

1994

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-130

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000Theft of a motor vehicle

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Relative Poverty - Scotland

All ages Children

Perc

enta

ge o

f Ind

ivid

uals

Economic

EconomicAnnual price changes: UK general (RPIX) and audio visual equipment price index

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Annual RPI change: Audio Visual Equipment RPIX

Policy & Practice: Justice

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

40

42

44

46

48

50

52Clear-up Rate: Total Crimes

Trust and Confidence in the Police (% agreed)

2009/10

2010/11

Police can be relied to be there when you need them 58% 61%

Police would treat you with respect if you had contact with them for any reason

83% 86%

Police in this area listen to concerns of local people 48% 53%

Overall, people have a lot of confidence in the police in this area 43% 47%

Homicid

e

Seri

ous assa

ult and att

empted

murd

er

Robbery

Other

violen

ce

Rap

e and att

empted

rape

Sex

ual ass

ault

Other

indecency

Houseb

reakin

g

Theft

by open

ing a lo

ckfast

place

Theft

from a

motor veh

icle

Theft

of a m

otor veh

icle

Shoplift

ing

Other

theft

Frau

d

Other

dishonest

y

Fire

-raisin

g

Van

dalism

, etc

Crim

es ag

ainst

public justi

ce

Han

dling a

n offensiv

e wea

pon

Dru

gs

All offen

ces

Common as

sault

Brea

ch of th

e pea

ce, et

c.

Other

offences

Dan

gero

us and ca

reless

driving

Drin

k/dru

g driv

ing

Unlaw

ful use

of veh

icle

All crim

es

All offen

ces

All Crim

es an

d offences

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%Custodial Sentence length: change 2002/03-2011/12

Policy and Practice: Education

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

S5 TotalS6 Total

Staying on rates at school

Policy and Practice: EducationSchool Exclusions and Court Convictions of Under 17s

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Exclusions in total

U17 court convictions

Conclusions (Discursive rather than definitive)

• So what’s been driving the fall in crime?• In large part, it’s a story of falling youth crime

Crime type Specific drivers

Vandalism reduced alcohol consumption less hanging out on streets by youths improved educational outcomes

Theft from a motor vehicle economic factors (falling resale value of stolen goods)

Theft of motor vehicle technology (immobilisers, central locking, CCTV in car parks)

Housebreaking technology (installation of basic security measures, particularly in deprived communities)

economic factors (falling resale value of stolen goods)

Violence reduced alcohol consumption policing practice

• reduced alcohol consumption

• improved educational outcomes

• increased police effectiveness (e.g. rising clear up rate)

• reduced poverty (although this impact has probably now ended)

General drivers

Crimes recorded by the police, Scotland, 2003-04 to 2012-13

Crime group 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13% change 06-07

to 12-13

Total Crimes 414,214 438,123 417,785 419,257 385,509 377,433 338,124 323,247 314,188 273,053 -35%

Group 1: Non-sexual crimes of violence 15,187 14,728 13,726 14,099 12,874 12,612 11,228 11,438 9,533 7,530 -47%

Homicide1 149 165 121 159 142 134 106 122 121 91 -43%

Attempted murder & serious assault2 7,365 7,603 7,030 7,345 6,711 6,472 5,621 5,493 4,693 3,643 -50%

Robbery 4,161 3,736 3,553 3,578 3,064 2,963 2,496 2,557 2,244 1,832 -49%

Other 3,512 3,224 3,022 3,017 2,957 3,043 3,005 3,266 2,475 1,964 -35%

Group 2: Sexual offences3,4 6,785 7,325 6,558 6,726 6,552 6,331 6,527 6,696 7,361 7,693 14%

Rape & attempted rape 1,037 1,109 1,161 1,123 1,053 963 996 1,131 1,274 1,462 30%

Sexual assault4 3,257 3,470 3,392 3,452 3,502 3,297 3,412 3,220 2,908 3,008 -13%

Offences associated with prostitution 1,249 1,458 730 779 682 765 661 576 567 534 -31%

Other 1,242 1,288 1,275 1,372 1,315 1,306 1,458 1,769 2,612 2,689 96%

Group 3: Crimes of dishonesty 211,004 210,365 187,798 183,760 166,718 167,812 153,256 155,870 154,337 135,899 -26%

Housebreaking5 36,432 34,959 31,319 30,580 25,443 25,496 23,774 25,017 24,222 21,515 -30%

Theft by opening a lockfast place (OLP) 7,405 7,849 8,263 7,422 6,378 6,952 5,074 4,059 3,529 3,239 -56%

Theft from a motor vehicle by OLP 26,839 20,403 16,453 16,060 15,217 13,649 10,173 9,495 8,988 6,159 -62%

Theft of a motor vehicle 17,604 15,633 14,041 15,000 12,105 11,551 9,304 8,716 7,060 5,731 -62%

Shoplifting 27,948 28,534 28,247 28,750 29,186 32,048 30,332 29,660 29,758 26,449 -8%

Other theft 72,488 77,586 72,128 70,241 64,645 64,384 61,008 64,680 66,681 58,704 -16%

Fraud 15,277 18,307 11,074 9,332 8,409 8,316 8,283 8,983 8,892 8,898 -5%

Other 7,011 7,094 6,273 6,375 5,335 5,416 5,308 5,260 5,207 5,204 -18%

Group 4: Fire-raising, vandalism etc. 103,732 128,566 127,889 129,734 118,025 109,430 93,443 82,020 75,201 59,479 -54%

Fire-raising 4,163 4,698 4,856 4,976 4,635 4,651 4,244 3,966 3,755 3,066 -38%

Vandalism etc. 99,569 123,868 123,033 124,758 113,390 104,779 89,199 78,054 71,446 56,413 -55%

Group 5: Other crimes 77,506 77,139 81,814 84,938 81,340 81,248 73,670 67,223 67,756 62,452 -26%

Crimes against public justice 25,756 25,616 27,668 32,052 31,353 29,493 26,885 26,294 26,635 23,401 -27%

Handling an offensive weapon 9,278 9,545 9,628 10,110 8,989 8,980 7,042 6,283 5,631 4,015 -60%

Drugs 42,275 41,823 44,247 42,422 40,746 42,509 39,408 34,347 35,157 34,688 -18%

Other 197 155 271 354 252 266 335 299 333 348 -2%

Offence group 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13% change 06-07 to

12-13

Total offences1 615,836 638,538 599,858 605,467 570,171 558,122 561,709 528,335 542,315 543,768 -10% Group 6: Miscellaneous offences 180,963 214,302 219,491 232,373 224,256 226,821 230,971 209,967 210,401 203,421 -12%

Common assault2 57,355 73,711 72,281 78,167 73,523 74,130 72,212 70,786 69,253 60,955 -22%

Breach of the peace etc.3 77,883 89,920 89,615 93,387 90,301 91,198 85,239 68,555 71,058 70,075 -25% Drunkenness 7,534 7,234 6,984 6,664 6,702 6,045 5,722 5,765 5,744 5,618 -16% Other 38,191 43,437 50,611 54,155 53,730 55,448 67,798 64,861 64,346 66,773 23%

Group 7: Motor vehicle offences1 434,873 424,236 380,367 373,094 345,915 331,301 330,738 318,368 331,914 340,347 -9% Dangerous and careless driving 12,036 13,062 12,956 13,601 12,964 11,519 11,073 9,839 9,853 10,530 -23% Driving under the influence 11,571 11,061 11,257 11,704 10,697 9,800 8,504 7,563 7,445 6,433 -45% Speeding 199,213 210,120 167,724 162,929 137,206 117,256 113,523 114,129 125,221 128,936 -21% Unlawful use of vehicle 99,526 76,676 75,120 73,058 73,655 68,554 63,259 53,769 53,877 53,142 -27% Vehicle defect offences 37,194 27,022 23,932 21,170 22,328 25,603 26,666 21,921 24,094 24,289 15%

Other1 75,333 86,295 89,378 90,632 89,065 98,569 107,713 111,147 111,424 117,017 29%