Making Scotland’s Rural Environment More Sustainable

Steve Albon

Overview

Aims and Thematic Objectives

Integrative research based around Scotland’s Natural Resources

To help• determine key factors influencing function and resilience

and which link to sustainability of Scotland’s ‘quality’ brand.

• improve knowledge on hazard identification, the threat that various risks pose, and solutions to adapt and mitigate.

• develop appropriate balance of land use: agriculture/forestry, environmental services, recreation, tourism, wildlife refuge.

Addressing ‘Big’ Policy Issues

Sustainability of Rural Scotland

Protecting Biodiversity

Responding to Climate Change

Sustainable Development (SD) Guiding Principles

• Living within environmental limits

• Ensuring a healthy and just society

• Achieving a sustainable economy

• Promoting good governance • Using sound science

responsibly

Wise use of Environment

Social justice

Economic prosperity

SUSTAINABILITY

Environmental Science

Social Science

Economic Science

SUSTAINABILITY

Conceptual Frameworks for ‘SD’

Concept of resilience and adaptive cycles

(e.g. Gunderson and Holling, 2001)

Resilience: the capacity of a system to absorb perturbations and remain in a functionally similar state

Multiple stable states: a set of ‘functionally similar’ states for a system

Basins of attraction

Redrawn from Ritz et al 2003

PERTURB

RE

SP

ON

SE

TIME

RESILIENCE

RESISTANCE

Structure of Talk

• Background

• Responding to Climate Change– Conservation of soil

carbon

• Protecting Biodiversity– Species Loss– Habitat Loss

• Sustainable Rural Development– Values and attitudes

Our Approach

• Detecting change

• Understanding key drivers and mechanisms

• Stakeholder involvement

• Integrated Modelling

• Scenario analysis

• Supporting policy development

• Knowledge Exchange

1. Responding to Climate Change

Mid-Summer Day ChallengeCabinet Secretary for Finance

and Sustainable Growth John Swinney announced

“We will introduce a Scottish Climate Change Bill and consult on a mandatory long-term target to reduce our emissions by 80% by 2050”.

• equivalent to reductions of 3% each year.

• consult on proposals for targets based on average annual reductions over a 5 year period.

A Low Carbon Rural Economy?

Adaptation and mitigation challenges

• Rural - Urban connections: carbon (C) footprint of transport

• Land use change to reduce Green House Gas emissions

• Feasibility of biomass crop and renewable energy

• Practices to conserve C and/or sequester more C

Conservation of Soil Carbon

• Erosion (water and wind)• Floods and landslides• Decline soil organic matter

Loss of Soil Organic Matter

Survey in England and Wales found significant rate of loss of soil organic matter (SOM) (Bellamy et al 2005)

• Scotland no contemporary estimates of SOM but more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is being found in our lakes and rivers

Understanding Changes in DOC

• Increases seen in 80% of 160 sites in Scotland

• Trend consistent in space & time - climate driver – ToC

• But increase in rate varies within & between catchments

• Geology, Soils, Land Use?

Need Multi-disciplinary Science

Silica concentration

Nit

rate

co

nce

ntr

ati

on

Sources of flow

Latest Statistical Methods

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Date

Pro

po

rtio

n

OF GW SSF

25/4/00 26/4/00 27/4/00 28/4/00 30/4/00 1/5/00

Comparison of Proportions without Flow as a Covariate - 25/04/000

.00

.20

.40

.60

.8

Date

Pro

po

rtio

n

OF GW SSF

25/4/00 26/4/00 27/4/00 28/4/00 30/4/00 1/5/00

Comparison of Proportions with Flow as a Covariate - 25/04/00

National Soils Inventory Scotland

Is Soil Carbon Changing?

Key points:• Data captured 1978-1987• 5 km grid (2826 sites), analytical data at 10 km points (721 sites)• Objective site selection - area estimates• Scottish National Soils Archive

Monitoring Change in Soil C

To detect change

• in key soil properties e.g: carbon

• Compare sampling methods e.g: NSRI, CEH

• Test suitability of new indicators e.g: bulk density, porosity, measures of biodiversity

20 km re-sampling, similar to EU, as before aligned to OS Grid

2. Protecting Biodiversity

Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy

• Species and Habitat – halting loss

• People – raising awareness

• Landscapes & Ecosystems – enhancing biodiversity

• Integration and Coordination – framework for inclusion in all decision making

• Knowledge – best new and existing information for stakeholders

Reversing loss of biodiversity

Species solutions need research

Priority Species for Action

Freshwater Pearl Mussel

Woolly Willow Salix lanata

Small Cow Wheat Melampyrum sylvaticum

Across Scotland area heather moor reduced by 25% since 1945

Habitat loss & Landscape change

Expansion of forestry

Mammalian herbivores can be landscape engineers

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

West Grampian, 20020

20

60

04

0 n = 969

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

South Ross, 2000

02

06

00

40 n = 2041

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

Gairloch, 1998

020

600

40

n = 2651

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

North Ross, 2001

02

06

00

40 n = 819

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

West Sutherland, 2000

02

06

00

40 n = 836

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

Midwest, 2003

02

06

00

40 n = 719

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

South Loch Tay, 1998

02

06

00

40 n = 3437

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

Northern, 1999

02

06

00

40 n = 1182

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

East Sutherland, 2000

02

06

00

40 n = 972

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

Cairngorm-Speyside, 1997

02

06

00

40 n = 2072

L L/M M M/H H

Grazing Impact Class

P

erce

ntag

e

Angus, 1999

02

06

00

40 n = 1067

How Grazing Impact Varies

and which species?

Also cattle, rabbits, mountain hare, red grouse

-0

.10

.10

.3

Me

an

Ch

an

ge

in

Pro

ba

bility

Sheep Cattle Rabbits Hares Deer Grouse-0

.10

.10

.3

Me

dia

n C

ha

ng

e in

Pro

ba

bility

Sheep Cattle Rabbits Hares Deer Grouse

M

ed

ian

pre

dic

ted

im

pact

Impact varies with species

And density

R2 = 0.2845

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Deer density km-2

Imp

act

Sco

re

Coarse grassland

R2 = 0.6891

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Deer density km-2

Im

pac

t S

core

Dwarf-shrub heath

3. Sustainable Rural Development

• What sort of landscape do we want?

• Can we mitigate unwanted change?

• How can we adapt our demands to ensure the viability of rural livelihoods?

Diversification for ‘SD’

Scientific American

Stewardship payments• Maintaining biodiversity

• Carbon conservation – in particular soil C

• Renewable power

• Sustainable timber

• Water resources – pollution and flood control

• Food security - premium

Human-Environment Interactions

Societal values

HUMAN DIMENSION

ECOLOGICAL DIMENSION

Structures Processes

Ecosystem functions

Boundary conditions

What are key threats to resource & do we understand change processes?

What do people value about a resource and the changes to it?

• Provisioning services– benefits from provision

food, fibre or fuel• Regulating services

– benefits from erosion control, water purification

• Cultural services – benefits related to

recreation

Eco

syst

em s

ervi

ces

What are relevant issues that emerge from the interaction?

Values, Attitudes and Behaviour

Beliefs/Values

AttitudesFocus Groups• Mountaineers

• Birdwatchers• Tourists

– within Scotland– outside

Scotland• Local residents• Foresters• Farmers

Human-Nature relationship

“sense of place”

Values attributed to ‘balance’ of

natureBenefits & function of biodiversity

• Emerging issues not based on expert knowledge alone, explicitly include ‘lay’ stakeholders’ perceptions

• Lay stakeholders’ understanding contingent on translation process and perception, prior knowledge and experience

• Not all ecosystem functions easily ‘translatable’ to allow lay stakeholders to make meaningful value judgements!

• General view on biodiversity management

• Specific attitude towards particular measures

Institutions and Property Rights

Feasibility of Exclusion YES NO

Riv

alr

y in

con

su

mp

tion

YES

NO

• Sheep farm• Estate quarry

• Deer population

• Crofter’s grazings

• Landscape

Private Common Pool

Club

Public

Interactions with Governance • Economic – market orientated

• Regulatory - fines

• Voluntary - cooperation

Stakeholder Involvement

• Who is currently involved?

• What interest do they represent?

• How is their involvement shaping the plan?

• How can conflicts of interest be resolved ?

• Innovative, interactive process – see this afternoon’s workshop!

Summary: Science Integral to ‘SD’

Programme 3

Environmental

Economic

Social

Analys

ing

Change

Knowledge

of Processes

Reduce Uncertainty

Stakeholder Involvement

Evalu

atin

g

Policy

Development of Indicators

Developing

Intervention

Strategies

Scenario analysis

Acknowledgements

Work Package CoordinatorsHelaina BlackIain BrownAlison HesterRupert HoughSimon LanganKeith MatthewsRobin PakemanAlan RenwickAndy Vinten

Speakers & Workshop Facilitators

Kirsty BlackstockColin CampbellBob FerrierAlison HesterWendy KenyonAlan Renwick

Graphics & LogisticsJohn BrownPat CarnegieJane LundLorraine Robertson

All the Poster authors/presenters

Staff of Main Research ProvidersProgramme 3 Advisory Board

Michael Usher, Maggie Gill and Ian Bainbridge