Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 26 September 2013 Craig Lewis Executive Director Clean Coalition 650-796-2353 mobile [email protected]

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 26 September 2013

Craig LewisExecutive DirectorClean Coalition650-796-2353 [email protected]

Buildings of 2030Vision driving Demonstrations, Certifications,

Standards, and Codes

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now

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Clean Coalition – Mission and Advisors

Board of AdvisorsBoard of AdvisorsJeff Anderson

Co-founder and Former ED, Clean Economy Network

Josh BeckerGeneral Partner and Co-founder, New Cycle Capital

Pat BurtCEO, Palo Alto Tech Group;

Councilman & Former Mayor, City of Palo Alto

Jeff BrothersCEO, Sol Orchard

Jeffrey ByronVice Chairman National Board of Directors, Cleantech Open; Former Commissioner, CEC

Rick DeGoliaSenior Business Advisor, InVisM, Inc.

John GeesmanFormer Commissioner, CEC

Eric GimonIndependent Energy Expert

Patricia GlazaPrincipal, Arsenal Venture Partners

Dan KammenDirector of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley; Former Chief Technical

Specialist for RE & EE, World Bank

Fred KeeleyTreasurer, Santa Cruz County, and Former Speaker

pro Tempore of the California State Assembly

Felix KramerFounder, California Cars Initiative

Amory B. LovinsChairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain

Institute

L. Hunter LovinsPresident, Natural Capitalism Solutions

Ramamoorthy RameshFounding Director, DOE SunShot Initiative

Governor Bill RitterDirector, Colorado State University’s Center for the

New Energy Economy, and Former Colorado Governor

Terry TamminenFormer Secretary of the California EPA and Special

Advisor to CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger

Jim WeldonTechnology Executive

R. James WoolseyChairman, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies; Former Director of Central

Intelligence (1993-1995)

Kurt YeagerVice Chairman, Galvin Electricity Initiative; Former

CEO, Electric Power Research Institute

MissionTo accelerate the transition to local energy systems through innovative policies and programs that deliver cost-effective renewable energy, strengthen local economies, foster environmental sustainability, and provide energy

resilience

MissionTo accelerate the transition to local energy systems through innovative policies and programs that deliver cost-effective renewable energy, strengthen local economies, foster environmental sustainability, and provide energy

resilience


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Clean Coalition Vision = Clean Local Energy


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Clean Coalition Overarching Objectives

From 2020 onward, at least 50% of all new electricity generation in the United States will be from local sources.

Locally generated electricity does not travel over high voltage transmission lines to get from the location it is generated to the area it is consumed.

From 2020 onward, at least 80% of all new electricity generation in the United States will be from renewable sources.

By 2020, policies and programs are well established for ensuring successful fulfillment of the other two objectives.

Policies reflect the full value of local renewable energy.

Programs prove the superiority of local energy systems in terms of economics, environment, and resilience.


5

Zero Net Energy is Key Vision-driver for Buildings


6

Vision drives Demos, Certs, Standards & Codes


7

Buildings of 2030 Must Fit with Cities of Future


8

Expect EV Chargers Everywhere

EVs provide the CLEAN Bridge between Energy, Buildings, Cities and Transportation


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Plan for Renewables Everywhere within D-grid

Retail DGServes Onsite

Loads

Central Generation Serves Remote Loads

Distribution Grid

Transmission Grid

Project Size

Wholesale DGServes Local Loads

Behind the Meter


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WDG is Key Market Segment with Superior Value

The most cost-effective solar is large WDG, not central station due to significant hidden T&D costs

Distribution Grid T-Grid

PV Project size and type

100kW roof

500kW roof

1 MW roof

1 MW ground

5 MW ground

50 MW ground

Required PPA Rate

16¢ 15¢ 13¢ 9-11¢ 8-10¢ 7-9¢

T&D costs 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 2-4¢

Ratepayer cost per kWh

16¢ 15¢ 13¢ 9-11¢ 8-10¢ 9-13¢

Sources: CAISO, CEC, and Clean Coalition, Nov2012; see full original analysis from Jul2011 at www.clean-coalition.org/studies

Total Ratepayer Cost of Solar

http://www.clean-coalition.org/studies


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WDG Delivers Scale & Cost-Effectiveness Fast

Solar Markets: Germany vs California (RPS + CSI + other)

Germany has deployed 12 times more solar than California in the last decade despite California’s 70% better solar resource!!!

Sources: CPUC, CEC, SEIA and German equivalents.

Cum

ulat

ive

MW

2002 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

CaliforniaGermany


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German Solar Pricing Translates to 5 cents/kWh

Project Size Euros/kWh USD/kWh California Effective Rate $/kWh

Under 10 kW 0.145 0.1903 0.0762

10 kW to 40 kW 0.138 0.1805 0.0722

40.1 kW to 1 MW 0.123 0.161 0.0644

1.1 MW to 10 MW 0.101 0.1317 0.0527

Conversion rate for Euros to Dollars is €1:$1.309California’s effective rate is reduced 40% due to tax incentives and then an additional 33% due to the superior solar resource

Source: http://www.wind-works.org/cms/index.php?id=92, 10 September 2013

Replicating German scale and efficiencies would yield rooftop solar at only between 5 and 7 cents/kWh to California ratepayers


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German Solar Capacity is Small WDG (Rooftops)

up to 10 kW 10 to 30 kW 30 to 100 kW 100 kW to 1 MW over 1 MW -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

German Solar PV Capacity Installed in 2010

MW

Source: Paul Gipe, March 2011

Germany’s solar deployments are almost entirely sub-2 MW projects on built-environments and interconnected to the distribution grid (not behind-the-meter)

22.5%

26%

23.25%

9.25%

19%


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US has Far Better Solar Resource than Germany


15

Deployment Volume Drives Learning Curves

Si learning curve

Solar pricing is reduced by 20% for every doubling of deployed volume

New technology learning curve

Efficiency innovation


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DG+IG Initiative = Proving Feasibility of High DG

Work with five utilities across the US to deploy a DG+IG demonstration project at each by yearend-2015

Prove viability of Distributed Generation (DG) providing at least 25% of total electric energy consumed within a single substation grid areaIntegrate Intelligent Grid (IG) solutions to ensure that grid reliability is maintained or improved from original level

IG solutions include diversity and Energy Storage for sure, and potentially, advanced inverters, forecasting & curtailment, and/or Demand Response


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Benefits of DG+IG

Power Quality, Reliability & Resilience benefitsIncreased customer satisfactionImproved equipment longevitySustained vital services in otherwise complete blackout scenariosAvoided transmission & central generation vulnerabilities

Economic benefitsSignificant private-sector investmentSubstantial local job creationFixed electricity prices for 20+ yearsLocalized energy spendingAvoided inefficiencies of central generation & transmission

Environmental benefitsAvoiding dirty power generation, including nasty peaker plants that are often sited in underserved communitiesUtilizing built-environments and disturbed lands for generation projectsPreserving pristine environments from transmission lines and other infrastructure


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Hunters Point = DG+IG Showcase

• BVHP has a long history of environmental degradation.

• Houses one third of San Francisco’s hazardous waste sites.

• Was downwind from California's dirtiest peaker power plant until community activism forced its closure in 2010.

• 20% of BVHP children suffer from asthma, and other chronic illnesses, 4x CA average

• BVHP has one of the highest poverty rates in San Francisco, with 30% of families earning less that $10,000 per year, and a median household income of $29,640 annually, as compared to $65,000 for white San Franciscans and a $55,221 average citywide.

• An overwhelming 72% of the African Americans in BVHP have incomes below the federal poverty level.

Sources: Hunters Point Family and Grid Alternatives.


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Comparison of New Construction & Retrofit

Hunters Point Substation serves Major Redevelopment Area & Continuing Urban Neighborhoods (30% & 70% of projected load respectively)


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Scope of Complete Hunters Point DG+IG Project

Coordinating collaborative partners

Providing redevelopment plans (SF Agencies)

Providing full set of Distribution Grid (D-grid) details and loads (PG&E)

Identifying prospective sites for Distributed Generation (DG)

Establishing Modeling Platform

Simulating existing D-grid scenario and DG+IG iterations for opitimized recommendations

Defining Intelligent Grid (IG) performance requirements

Identifying prospective sites for IG Solutions

Assessing DG+IG benefits in terms of economics, environment, and grid efficiency, reliability & resilience

Designing interconnection and procurement processes and procedures to stage for DG+IG deployments


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Replacing SONGS with DG+IG

Huntington Beach 290 MVars

(minus line losses = 261 MVars)

vs

570 MW of local solar with advanced inverters, oversized by 10% set at 0.9 Power Factor = 261 MVArs

Local solar configured with advanced inverters alone can replace SONGS


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PV Potential of Top 25 Roofs in LA is Over 75 MW

RankPotential Size (kW)

Address Description

1 6,987 300 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage2 6,296 3880 N MISSION RD Warehousing, Distribution, Storage3 4,797 400 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage4 4,524 20525 NORDHOFF ST Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts5 4,402 2501 S ALAMEDA ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage6 3,771 4544 COLORADO BLVD Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts7 3,629 1800 N MAIN ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage8 3,597 5500 CANOGA AVE Heavy Manufacturing9 3,596 20333 NORMANDIE AVE Food Processing Plants10 3,366 8500 BALBOA BLVD Heavy Manufacturing11 3,351 6600 TOPANGA CANYON BLVD Shopping Centers (Regional)12 3,313 401 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage13 3,052 9301 TAMPA AVE Shopping Centers (Regional)14 2,806 11428 SHERMAN WAY Warehousing, Distribution, Storage15 2,703 3820 UNION PACIFIC AVE Heavy Manufacturing16 2,693 1601 E OLYMPIC BLVD Warehousing, Distribution, Storage17 2,673 9120 MASON AVE Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts18 2,672 12745 ARROYO ST Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts19 2,431 5525 W IMPERIAL HWY Heavy Manufacturing20 2,430 8201 WOODLEY AVE Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts21 2,404 8900 DE SOTO AVE Heavy Manufacturing22 2,201 3410 N SAN FERNANDO RD Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts23 2,171 12820 PIERCE ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage24 2,149 4024 RADFORD AVE Motion Picture, Radio & Television25 2,126 3020 E WASHINGTON BLVD Heavy Manufacturing

100+ GW of Built-Environment Solar Potential in California vs 60 GW of Peak Load


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Back-Up Slides

Back-Up Slides


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Renewables are Reliable

CountryPercent of electrical

generation in 2007 from non-hydro renewables

2007 SAIDI – outage duration (minutes)

2007 SAIFI – outage frequency (number of

outage events)

Denmark 29.4% 23 0.5

Germany 12% 24 0.5

United States 2.8% 240 1.5

Sources: Galvin Electricity Initiative, Electric Reliability: Problems, Progress and Policy Solutions, February 2011U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, 2011


25

DG+IG Keeps Power in Balance

DR, ES shifts load

DR, ES shifts load

ES, Auto-DR, curtail for steep

ramp


26

Replace SONGS – Energy Storage Potential

Targets proposed by CPUC include 745 MW storage in Southern California


27

DG+IG Projects Begin with Grid Modeling & Simulation


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DG+IG Policy Innovations Required

Integrate Grid PlanningTransparent and public T&D planning processes Proactively evaluate DG+IG alternatives to new transmission investmentsNecessary to meet goals re: renewables, EVs, costs, local job creation, resilience

Implement Full Cost & Value AccountingInvestments should reflect the full spectrum of rate impacts, economic growth, health, safety, and environmental sustainabilityPrevent bias against DG+IG (e.g. hidden transmission costs)

Monetize DG+IG Grid Services Establishing markets that compensate at full value of grid services is fundamental to optimizing value for ratepayers

Prioritize DG+IG Development in High Value LocationsIdentify preferred locations on the grid based on transparent cost & value criteriaSet “Local Portfolio Standard” targets

Update Technical Standards: Update national technical standards (IEEE/ UL) to allow DG+IG to provide grid services to the fullest potential

Documents

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 26 September 2013 Craig Lewis Executive Director Clean Coalition 650-796-2353 mobile [email protected]