Making a Fortune From Fixed Odds Financial Trading

Making A Fortune From Fixed Odds Financial Trading

Vince Stanzione

Information and strategies contained in this guide are intended as educational

information only and should not be used as a sole trading guide. International

currency, stock index or commodity prices can be highly volatile and

unpredictable. The past is not a guide to future performance and strategies that

have worked in the past may not work in the future. Fixed odds financial trading

involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The value of

any trade, and income derived from it can go down as well as up and your capital

is at risk. Although due care has been taken in preparing this document, we

disclaim liability for any inaccuracies or omissions.

Published by: First Information

Email: [email protected]

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in

any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying,

recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without the written

permission of the Publisher, except where permitted by law. For information of

the reproduction rights contact: First Success Publishing at the above address.

Copyright © 2009

By Vince Stanzione

Contents

Introduction 1• Breakingdowntheestablishment–Outwiththeold

andinwiththenew 2

Chapter 1: Getting started 3• Startingwiththebasics 3• What’sthedifferencebetweenSpreadBetting/Futures

andfixedodds? 5• OpeninganAccount 7

Chapter 2: Ways to back the market 12• Betsoffered 12• WhatcanItrade? 16• Howarebetspriced? 20

Chapter 3: Making Money with Fixed odds 29• UsingCharts 29• UsingaMovingAverage 32• MoneyManagement 41

iv|Making A Fortune From Fixed Odds Financial Trading

Chapter 4: 8 Top Tips for Fixed Odds Trading 45• YoucanmakemoneyfromUp,DownorSideways

movements 45• Learntolovevolatility 46• UseOneTouchbets 47• BalanceRiskandReward 48• Beadisciplinedtradernotarecklessgambler 48• Runtwobetstogether,tradingapair 49• Seasonality–Historydoesrepeatitselfinmanymarkets 49• CombineSpreadBetsandFixedOdds 50

Conclusion 51

About Vince Stanzione 52

Welcometo“MakingAFortuneFromFixedOddsFinancialTrading”.MynameisVinceStanzione.Forthe

past23years,Ihavebeeninvolvedinfinancialmarkets.IhaveworkedforvariousbanksandbrokersintheCityofLondon,bothinEquitiesandForeignExchange.

Forthelast18yearsIhavesuccessfullytradedmyownmoneyaswellasteachingothershowtotrade.Thishasgivenmethefreedomtoliveand“work”,ifthat’stherightword,fromanywhereintheworld,withnobossortheusualhasslethatnormalbusinessesface.

DuringmycareerIhavetradedmillionsofdollarsbothformypreviousemployersandwithmyownmoney,usingfinancialinstrumentssuchafutures,options,warrants,swaps,CFDsandintheUK,financialspreadbetting.TheaimofthisbookistogiveyouanintroductiontotradingwithBetOnMarkets.comusingFixedOddsFinancialBets.

Introduction

2|Making A Fortune From Fixed Odds Financial Trading

Inmyview,fixedoddsbettingoffersanexcellentwaytotrademarketswithsmalllimitedstakesyetwithbigpotentialgains.Today,thousandsofmenandwomenfromallovertheworlduseBetOnMarkets.comtoplacetradesoncurrencies,shares,indicesandeventhepriceofgold.

Breaking down the establishment – Out with the old and in with the newUntilthelast5to10years,itwasverydifficultforprivateclientstostarttradingastheyhadtousethesamestrategiesaslargebanksandfinancialinstitutions.ManyofthesestrategieswouldrequireyoutolodgelargedepositsandtakeriskswhichyouorIwouldnotwanttotake.Mostclientswouldbeencouragedtojustbuysharesormutualfundsandengageinbuyandholdtypestrategies.ThankstotheinternetandBetOnMarkets.com,themoneymaking“club”isnowopentoeveryone,regardlessofwheretheylive,whattheydoforalivingorhowmuchtheyearn.WithnothingmorethanaBetOnMarkets.comaccountandinternetaccess,thefinancialmarketstodayallowyoutotakeonandbeatthefinancialbigboysattheirowngame.Justthinkofhowyoucanbesittingonabeachandstillbetrading,becausemanyPDA’ssuchastheiPhoneandmobilephonesarepowerfulenoughtotradefrom.

Likeanynewsubject,atfirstitcanallseemabitstrangeanddifficult.Myaimistokeepthejargondowntoabare

minimumanduseasmanyexamplesaspossiblefrommyowntradingexperiencetohelpexplainthevariousbetsandstrategies.

Don’tworryifyoudonotunderstanditafteroneread.Iencourageyoutore-studyanduseaVirtualTradingAccounttopracticebeforeyoutradewithrealmoney.ThisgreatfeatureisofferedfreebyBetOnMarkets.com.Soastheoldsayinggoes“youcaneatanelephantifyoutakeonebiteatatime”,youtoocanlearnhowtotradeprofitablyusingfixedoddsbetsifyoutakeitstepbystep.

Starting with the basicsMostinvestorsareconditionedintomakingmoneybybuyingsomethinglowandsellingithigh.Thismaybewellandgoodinthelongtermbutastradersweneedmoreflexibility.

C h a p t e r • 1

Getting started


WithBetOnMarkets.comyoucanprofitfromamarketgoingup,downorevensideways,aconceptthatnotevenseasonedtradersunderstand.Solet’stakealookatthebasicsandthenIwillshowyouthespecificbetsoffered:

• BullLongUp Formanythisistheeasiesttounderstand.You’rebuyinglow

andsellinghigher.Youcanbetforthemarkettomoveupoverthenextfewminutes,daysorevenmonths.

• BearShortDown Thisisalittlestrangetonewcomersbutsomethingyouwill

soongrasp.ABearBetallowsyoutoprofitfromsomethinggoingdown.Soyou’resellingfirstandthenbuyingbacklater.

Inthestockmarket“shortselling”isnotrecommendedasitcarriesrisksandinfact,mostbrokerswillnotletyousellshort.HoweverwithBetOnMarkets.comyoucanaseasilyplaceaBearBetasyoucanplaceaBullBetandstillhavelimitedrisk.SoifyourviewthattheWallStreetIndexisgoingtoplummetturnsoutwrongthenyoucanwalkawaywithalossofnomorethanyourstake.

ThelargefallsinglobalstockmarketsinSeptember/October2008wereexcellentopportunitiesforthoseusingBearBets

Chapter 1: GettingStarted |5

• SidewaysRange Thisisanotherconceptwhichmaysoundalittlestrange

butcanbeveryprofitable.Again,unlessyouhaveaccesstoatradedoptionsaccountandaheftybankbalance,makingmoneyfromarangewasnearlyimpossibleuntilnow.WithBetOnMarkets.comyoucanplaceabetthatsaysineffectthatamarketwillstayinarange.Let’ssayyouexpecttheEUR/USDtostaybetween1.50(high)and1.30(low)inthenext10daysusingaRangeBet.AslongasattheendofyourbettheEUR/USDiswithinthatrangeyouwillbepaidoutinfull.

• AbreakoutBet Let’ssayamarkethasbeenconsolidating(goingsideways)for

awhileandyouwanttobetthatthemarketwillbreakout,eitherupordown.Thisispossiblewithafixedoddsbet.Sowhatyouarebackingisthatthemarketwillmakeamove,thedirectiondoesnotmatter.

What’s the difference between Spread Betting/Futures and fixed odds?Someofyoumayhaveheardoffuturestradingorfinancialspreadbetting.Youmayalsohaveheardaboutthehighrisksthatareinvolvedinthesetypesoftrading.Spreadbettingallowsyoutoprofitfromamarketgoingupordown.Themorecorrectyouarethemoreyoumake,themorewrongyouarethemoreyoulose.Mostspreadbetshaveastoploss,soifthemarketmovesacertainamountofpointsagainstyou,youwouldbestoppedout.


Thisprotectionmakessense,butwhathappenstomanytradersisthattheyhavetherighttradebuttheyarestoppedoutduetoashorttermcontramovement.Let’ssayyouthinktheGBPwillstrengthenagainsttheUSDanduseaspreadbetwithastoplossof100pointsaway.ThetradestartsoffgoinginyourfavourbutduetoanunfavourableeconomicreleasetheGBPdropsjustbelowyourstopbeforerebounding.Thismeansthatyourbetisoverandyouhavelost.Themainadvantageofafixedoddstradeoveraspreadbetwithastopisthatthepositioncannotbestoppedoutearly(apartfromaOneTouchbet),whichmeansthatitcouldgowrongbutthenreboundandfinishinprofit.Anotherdifferencebetweenafixedoddsandaspreadbetisthatyoucanstillmakeabiggainwithjustasmallmarketmovement.Taketheexampleofaone-dayDoubleUptradeongoldatBetOnMarkets.comandasimilardurationspreadbet.TheobjectiveineachcaseistowinGBP100clearprofit.Thefixedoddspositionwouldpayoutifthepricefinisheshigherthantheentrypointplusthespread.WiththemarketatUSD833andaspreadofUSD1,thismeansthatabetcostingGBP100wouldgiveGPB100inprofitaslongasgoldendedthedayanywhereaboveUSD834.Adoublebetpays100%returnlessasmallfactorwhichisthefinancialbookmakersmargin.


Anequivalentone-dayspreadbetwithastakeofGBP3perpointwouldrequireastop33pointsbelowthecurrentpricetolimitthepotentiallosstoGBP100.ThisrunstheriskofbeingstoppedoutearlyandwouldonlymakeGBP100profitifthepricefinishes33pointshigher.

FormyowntradingIusefixedodds,spreadbetting,coveredwarrants,marginedFXandoptions.Likeamechanicwithatoolboxthatusesdifferenttoolsfordifferenttasks,weastradersmustusedifferentproductstobackdifferentscenarios.InmanycasesIwillhaveafixedoddsbetandaspreadbetrunningtogether.WhatIamcertainofisthatmanynewtraderswithsmalleraccountsusingspreadbettingtotrademarketssuchastheDowJonesIndustrials,FTSE100orS&P500wouldbefarbetteroffusingafixedoddsbetthanaspreadbet.

Opening an AccountBeforewegointotheinsandouts,nowwouldbeagoodtimetoopenanaccountwithBetOnMarkets.comifyouhavenotalreadydoneso.

Theprocessisfairlysimpleandyoucannormallygetitdonewithinaround5minutes,sodon’tworry:it’snotlikegoingtoseethebankmanagerorthedentist!FromthefrontpageyouwillseeaSIGNUPbutton,youwillthenseeabuttontoselectREALorVIRTUAL,Isuggestyou


signupforboth,soyouhaveavirtualaccounttotestideasonandarealaccounttodoyourrealmoneytrading.

Herearethetop5frequentlyaskedquestionsduringaccountopening:

1. Ismymoneysafe? Intoday’sfinancialenvironmentthatisavalidquestion,solet’stake

alookatwhomwearedealingwith.BetOnMarkets.comisowned

Note:Whilst virtual accounts are good to start with, I advise moving to trade

with real money within a few weeks. I have seen many new traders

spending months with virtual accounts and never start making real

trades.


bytheRegentMarketsGroupwhichisamulti-milliondollargroupofcompanies.BetOnMarkets.comhasbeeninbusinesssince1999andhastradedover15milliontransactionswithover100,000clientsworldwide.BetOnMarkets.comhasnodebtandiscashpositive.Thecompanyhaswonvariousawards,mostrecently“BestFixedOddsFinancialProvider”in2007and2008bySharesMagazineand“BestFixedOddsFirm”in2008byInvestorChronicleFT.ThecompanyislicensedintheIsleOfManandMalta.BetOnMarkets.comdoesnotextendcredittoclients.Allbetsarepaidwithcashupfront.WhenyouaretradingusingtheBetOnMarkets.complatform,BetOnMarkets.comisthecounterparty.

2.WillmyaccountbecloseddownifImakemoney? Ihavemadeaconsiderableamountofmoneywith

BetOnMarkets.comandyouwilloftenseemynameappearinthetop10biggestwinnerslistandIhaveneverhadaproblem.WhatyouneedtounderstandisthatBetOnMarkets.comstillmakesmoneyevenifyouwin.ByusingsophisticatedhedgingtechniquesBetOnMarkets.comcanoffsetrisk.ForexampleifalotofclientsarebullishontheGermanDAXthenBetOnMarkets.comcanpurchaseDAXFuturesinthemarkettooffsetallorpartoftherisk.Clientsalsooffseteachother,sooneclientmaybettheDowJonestogoupandanotherclientmaybetdown,BetOnMarkets.comactsasthemiddlemanandmakesasmallmarginonboth.


Unliketraditionalbanksandbrokers,BetOnMarkets.comisaninternetbasedplatformthatrunswithfarlowercosts.Thebusinessisbasedonhighvolumeswithsmallprofitmarginswhichisgoodnewsforusastraders.

3.DoIneedacreditcardtotrade? No,notatall.ABetOnMarkets.comaccountcanbefunded

invariouswaysthatdonotrequireyoutouseacreditordebitcard.Forthosethatdowishtouseacreditordebitcard,restassuredthatthesitehasthehighestlevelofencryptionandanti-fraudmeasuresthatprotectboththeclientandBetOnMarkets.com.

4.HowdoIgetmywinnings?

Whenabetsettlesyouneedtojustclickabuttonfromyouraccounttoclosethetradeandtakeyourwinnings.ThissumisthencreditedtoyourBetOnMarkets.comaccount.Ifyouwishtowithdrawmoney,thiscanbedoneonlineviatheCashierbutton.Fundscanthenbepaidbacktoyourcreditcardorbankaccount.


5.Currency YoucanchoosetotradeinGBP,EURorUSD.Youcan

alsoeasilytransferfundsfromonecurrencytoanotheratcompetitiverates.

Note:The way you are paid back may depend on how you funded your

account.

InthissectionIwilllookatspecificbetsofferedbyBetOnMarkets.comRemembertocheckthewebsiteoftenas

newbetsareaddedregularly.

Bets offeredThereisawidevarietyofbetsavailableatBetOnMarkets.com.Herearesomeexamples:

1.Flashtrades/short-term Theseareavailableovershortdurationsofafewminutesand

willpayoutifthemarketrises(upbet)orfalls(downbet)overthattime.Theyallowtraderstotakeadvantageofveryshort-termtrends.

ThesetypeofbetsworkwellonUSmarketssuchastheDowJones,S&P500andNASDAQ,especiallyaroundmarket

C h a p t e r • 2

Ways to back the market

Chapter 2: Waystobackthemarket |13

2. Intra-daydoubles/trendmultipliers Thosewhocanspotstrongerandmorepersistenttrendscan

capitalizebyusingthesebetstobackariseorfallinsuccessive15-minutetoone-hourperiods.

movingnewseventssuchastheFOMCinterestratemeetingannouncements.

DURATION30 seconds to 4 minutes


3.Bull/bear Theseexposurespayoutifthemarketiseitheraboveorbelow

acertainspecifiedlevelattheendofthebet,whichcouldbehours,daysorevenmonthslater.Theyaresuitablefortakingadirectionalviewofthemarketorhedginganinvestmentportfolio.

4.Expiryrange/expirymiss Chartistscanusethesetomakemoneywhenthemarket

eitherfinishesbetweenahigh(resistance)andalow(support)barrieroroutsidethisrangerespectively.


5.Onetouch/notouch AOneTouchpaysoutifthemarkethitsthespecifiedlevel

withinthechosentimeframe,whiletheNoTouchistheexactopposite.Theycanbeusedinanumberofways,includingbackingabreakoutfromsupportorresistance.

6.Barrierrangetrade/notouchrange Thesecanbeusedtomakemoneyfromrange-boundmarkets

bystipulatingthatthepricewillnothiteitherthespecifiedhigherorlowerlevelduringthelifeofthetrade.


7.Theupordowntrade Thisisapurevolatilityplay,whichpaysoutifthemarket

toucheseitherthehigherorthelowerlevelwithinthelifetimeofthetrade.Sometradersuseitwithwideboundariesaheadofanimportanteconomicannouncementinanticipationofanextrememoveineitherdirection.

What can I trade? Newmarketsarealwaysbeingaddedbutthemainmarketsare:

1.Currencies,FXorForeignExchange ForeignExchangeortheFXmarketasitisknownas,is

oneofthebiggestintheworld,notradingfloorexists.Banks,brokers,companiesandgovernmentstradebetweenthemselvesusinghi-techcomputernetworkssuchasthoseofferedbyReutersandBloomberg.


Itishardtocomprehendtheamountofmoneythattradesinaday,around$3.2trillionaday(BankforInternationalSettlements(BIS)inBasel,Switzerland).Outofthis,around10%arecompaniestradingoverseasthatneedtoconvertcurrenciessuchasimport/exportbusinesses,therestispurespeculation.Sowhatistradingcurrenciesallabout?Manyofushavetradedcurrenciesinasmallway.Ifyouhavebeenabroad,youwouldhaveboughtSwissFrancs,Euros,USDollars,etc.

Nowwhenyouarelookingtobuyacurrency,sayEuros,youarelookingforasmanyEurostoyourPound(orhomecurrency)aspossible,soyouwouldratherhave1.40tothePoundratherthan1.10,soyouarebuyingHIGH.

Whenyoucomebackwithyourun-spentEurosandyouwanttochangethembacktoPounds,youarelookingforthelowestfiguresoyouaresellingLOW.

IntheForeignExchangemarketsnoactualnoteschangehands,it’sallpapertransactions.Theactualprincipalamountofmoneyneverchangeshands,youareonlytradingonasmallpercentagechange.

WithBetOnMarkets.comyoucantradetheFXmarket24hoursadaywithverysmallstakes.


Tip:

Themaincurrenciesare:

•AUD/JPY AustralianDollar–JapaneseYen•AUD/USDAustralianDollar–USDollar•EUR/AUDEuro–AustralianDollar•EUR/CAD Euro–CanadianDollar•EUR/CHF Euro-SwissFranc•EUR/GBP Euro–BritishPound•EUR/JPY Euro–JapaneseYen•EUR/USD Euro–USDollar•GBP/AUD BritishPound–AustralianDollar•GBP/CAD BritishPound–CanadianDollar•GBP/JPY BritishPound–JapaneseYen

•GBP/USD BritishPound–USDollar

Currencies are a good place to start. They trade 24 hours a day and

because the market is so large you always have buyers and sellers.

This means that the spread (difference between the buying and

selling price) is extremely tight, which in turn means your breakeven on a

bet is low. Also there is always something going on in the currency market.

2. Indices BetOnMarkets.comoffersarangeofworldindices.Due

tocopyright,thenamesofthemarketsmaylookslightlydifferentbuttheyarebasedonthesameindex.ForexampletheWallStreetIndexistheDowJonesIndustrialAverage.


SomeoftheIndicesyoucantrade:

•BelgiumIndex •DutchIndex •Euro100Index •Euro150Index •FrenchIndex •GermanIndex •HongKongIndex •IrishIndex •ItalianIndex •SpanishIndex •SwedishIndex •SwissIndex •UKIndex •USSP500Index •USTechCompositeIndex •WallStreetIndex

3.Gold BetOnMarketsoffersa24hourpriceongold,pricedinUSD.

4.UKShares AselectionofleadingUKsharesincludingBarclaysBank,

TescoandMarks&Spencer.

5.USShares AselectionofmainlyUStechnologysharesincludingIntel,

EBAYandGoogle.


How are bets priced?TheaimofthisbookisnottogointoadvancedmathematicssoIwillkeepthisisassimpleaspossible.Earlier,wementionedfinancialspreadbetting.SpreadbettingwouldliveintheFinancialFuturesfamily.

FixedoddsbetsliveintheOptionsfamilyandmanyofthepricingmodelsusedcomefromtradedoptions.

Whenafixedoddstradeexpires,thepositionwilleithersucceedandpayoutthepresetwinnings,orfailandpaynothing.SomeBetOnMarketsfixedoddsbetsmaybesoldbackbeforeexpiryjustasatradedoptionmaybeboughtorsoldbeforeexpiration.

Fixedoddsbetsareallbasedonoptionspricingmodels.Themostimportantinputsintothesecomplexformulaearethetypeofbet,predictedvolatility,timetoexpiry,andthepriceoftheunderlyingmarketcomparedwiththeboundarycondition.

Insimpleterms:thegreaterthelikelihoodofabetsucceeding,thehigherthepricethatBetOnMarketswillchargeforagivenlevelofwinnings.

Thisalsomeansthatthepotentialprofitasapercentageofthecostiscorrespondinglylower.Beforeplacingthebetyoucanpricedifferentscenariosandseetheeffectontheodds,allinrealtime.

Ifyouaskforabettobepricedandthereturnis900%youhavetowonderwhyBetOnMarketsisbeingsogenerous.Whatitmeansisthatthechanceofapayoutisveryunlikely.


Ontheotherhandifyouaskforabettobepricedwhichissopredictable,theBetOnMarketssystemmaynotgiveyouoddsortheoddsmaybejustafewpercent.

TheBetOnMarketswebsiteincludesthepurchasepriceofthebetinthewinningsfigure,sothepotentialprofitisactuallythepayoutminusthecost.Forexample,ifatradetowinGBP100costsGBP25,thepotentialprofitisactuallyGBP75,whichrepresentsapotentialgainof300%.

Oneofthesecretsofbeingaprofitabletraderisbalancingtherisksandrewards.Taketoomuchrisk(outsidechancesofapayout)andyouwillendupwithveryfewsuccessfultrades.Ifyoutaketoolittlerisk(highchancesofapayout)youwillendupwithmorewinningtradesbutwithlowerreturns.

TheoddsthatBetOnMarketsareofferingcanbeinferredfromthecostofthebetrelativetothepotentialwinnings.Forexample,abetpricedatGBP38.50towinGBP100impliesthattheprobabilityofsuccessis38.5%.Ahighercostwouldmeanagreaterchanceofsuccess,hencethelowerpotentialreturn.Thissameinformationcanalsobepresentedasfractionalodds,decimalodds,orabinaryprice.

Fractionaloddssuchas3/1meanthat,foreveryGBP1staked,GBP3inadditiontotheonebeingriskedwillbereturnedifthebetwins.

TakethepreviousexampleofatradeofGBP38.50thatwouldwinGBP100includingthereturnofthestake.Thefractionaloddsinthiscasewouldbe8/5,asmultiplyingthestakebytheoddsgivesthenetwinningsofGBP61.50.


Thesesameoddscanalsobeexpressedindecimalformat,whichinthiscasewouldbe2.60.Thisisworkedoutbyconvertingthefractiontodecimals(8/5=1.6)andaddingonetotheresult.MultiplyingthedecimaloddsandthestakethusproducesthetotalpayoutofGBP100.

Example of Pricing a Bet

Theexampleshowsaonetouchbet.

Example:• Firstly,selectthecurrencyandamountyouwishtowin,inthiscase

GBP 1000.

• Thenselectthedays,inthiscase8days.

• Thenselectthemarket,inthiscasetheUSTechCompositeIndex

alsoknownastheNASDAQComp.

• Andthensetthelevel,inthiscase1600.

• Oncedone,clickPRICETHISBET.


AsthisisaOneTouchbet,thepriceonlyhastotouch1600onceandthetradewillbepaidout.

Atthisstageyouarenotcommittedtomakethebet,soyoucanpriceabetbutyoudonothavetotakeit.Youmaywishtogobackandchangeoneormoreoftheparametersandseehowthisaffectstheodds.

ThepriceofthisbetisGBP682.95.IfIwishtoplacethisbetIwouldrequirethisamountinmyaccount.TheprofitonthebetisGBP317.05whichrepresentsa46%return.

Ofcourseifitdoesnottouchmytarget,inthiscase1600,within8daysthenmybetwillexpireat0.

Selling back a betWithBetOnMarketsitispossibletosellbackmostbetsbeforeexpiration.SoifIseeabetisnotgoingmyway,Icouldlookto

Remember:TheGBP1,000whichwouldbepaidbackifthetradewinsis

GBP682.95plusGBP317.05,itisnotGBP682.50andGBP1,000.


sellthebetandsalvagesomeofmystake.IcanalsomakeaprofitifIsellthebetbeforeithaspaidout.Ifthebethasmovedinmyfavor,itispossiblethatmysellbackpriceishigherthanmypurchaseprice.

Whilstagoodfeaturetohaveonthewhole,betsshouldberuntoexpirationtoobtainmaximumreturns.

Double BetsDoublebetsofferaverygoodreturnandareidealforbetslasting1to7days.

ADoubleUpbetisusedwhenyouthinkamarketwillgoupandaDoubleDownwhensomethingfalls.Justincaseyouarethinking“Whydon’tIplaceanUPandDOWNbetonthesamemarket,Iamboundtowin?”Noyouwillnot!Whilstthereturnis100%thepriceismodifiedslightlytoreflecttheBetOnMarketscommission,sothemarkethastomoveafewpointsbeforeoneofyourbetsmakeaprofit.

Youcouldhavetwo(ormore)doublebetsrunningatthesametimeondifferentmarkets.ForexampleaDoubleUponGoldandaDoubleUponEUR/USD.

AstheEurostrengthensagainsttheUSD,GoldnormallygoesupasGoldispricedinUSDandthatmakesitcheaperforthoseholdingEURtobuyGold.

Warning:It is not possible to sell back Double bets before expiration.


So let’s look at an example on Gold

TheGBP1000ishowmuchIwishtowin.IcanchangethisfromGBP10toGBP25,000.

Ithenselect“falls”(down),theotheroptionbeing“rises”(up),andtheIpressPRICETHISBET.

ThepriceisGBP500somyreturnis100%.ThecurrentspotpriceisGBP817.81,howeverthepricewhichisbeingoffered(below)isGBP816.99.

ThismeansthatIwillneedGoldtodropatleast0.82forthebettopayout.Comparethistootherformsoftrading:it’sanexcellent100%returnforaverysmallmove.


So, just to be clearThisisaDoubleDownbet.Itwillsettleatthecloseoftradingonthegivenexpirydateandwillpaydoublethestakeifthemarketpriceisloweratexpirythanatpurchasetime.

Nowfortheoppositebet:

ThisisaDoubleUpbet.Itwillsettleatthecloseoftradingonthegivenexpirydateandwillpaydoublethestakeifthemarketpriceishigheratexpirythanatpurchasetime.


Short term BetsYoumaywishtotradeinshorterintervalsthan1day.IntraDaybetsarebasedonasimilarconceptastheDoublesexceptthatyoucanbetbetween10minuteintervalsorhours.Forexample:

IwishtowinGBP100iftheEUR/USDislower(Icanswitchthistohigher)andIcanthenselectthetimes;inthiscase18h00and19h00.

Thereturnonthisbetis90%.

Thesebetsareidealfortradingaroundnewsitemssuchastheannouncementsofinterestratesandunemploymentfigures.

FlashBetsFlashbetsareuniquetoBetOnMarkets.comandoffershorttermprofitopportunitieslastingfrom30secondsto4minutes.Flashbetsarenotavailableonallmarkets;theyarecurrentlyofferedmainlyoncurrencies.


InthisexampleIwishtowinGBP100iftheGBP/JPY(UKPoundagainstJapaneseYen)fallsoverthenext1minute.Thereturnis99%.

Thisoffersanotherexcellentprofitopportunityforaveryshorttermbetwithstrictlylimitedrisk.Remember,thestakeofGBP50.18ismymaximumexposure.

Asmentionedearlier,Fixedoddsallowyoutoprofitfrommarketsmovingup,downorevensideways.Youcanalso

backyourviewfrom1minuteto365days.

InthissectionIwillcoversomeverysimpletradingsystemswhichcanbeusedtoprofitfromusingfixedoddsbetswithBetOnMarkets.com

UsingChartsOneofthemaintoolsIusearepricecharts.Chartsofferavisualrepresentationofwherethepriceofamarkethasbeeninthepast.BetOnMarketsoffersexcellentfreechartsonallthemarketstheytrade.Additionalchartsandnewscanbefoundfreeonvariousinternetsites.

Therearevarioustypesofchartsbuttokeepitsimple,Iwillconcentrateononewellknownformatcalledcandlestickcharts.

C h a p t e r • 3

Making Money with Fixed odds


Iwillnotgointothedetailsofthevariouspatterns.Iwilljustconcentrateonthebasics.

Candlestickchartsaresaidtohavebeendevelopedinthe18thcenturybythelegendaryJapanesericetraderHommaMunehisa.ThechartsgaveHommaandothersanoverviewofopen,high,low,andclosemarketpricesoveracertainperiod.Thismethodofchartingpricesprovedtobeparticularlyinteresting,duetotheabilitytodisplayfivedatapointsinsteadofone.ThemethodwaspickedupbyCharlesDowincirca1900andremainsincommonusebytoday’sfinancialmarkettraders.

High

Uppershadow

Lower Shadow

RealBody

Open Open

Close Close

Low

CandlesticklayoutCandlesticksareusuallycomposedofthebody(blackorwhite),andanupperandalowershadow(wick).Thewickillustrates

Thebasiccandlestick

Chapter 3: MakingMoneywithFixedodds |31

thehighestandlowesttradedpricesofastockduringthetimeintervalrepresented.Thebodyillustratestheopeningandclosingtrades.Ifthestockclosedhigherthanitopened,thebodyiswhite,withtheopeningpriceatthebottomofthebodyandtheclosingpriceatthetop.Ifthestockclosedlowerthanitopened,thebodyisblack,withtheopeningpriceatthetopandtheclosingpriceatthebottom.Acandlestickneednothaveeitherabodyorawick.

Examplechart

Thisisadailychart,soeachcandlerepresentsoneday.Otherchartscanbeselectedrangingfrom1minuteto1month.

Thegreencandlerepresentsanupdayandtheyellowcandleadownday.


UsingaMovingAverageThisonetoolhasmade(andsaved)memoremoneythananyother.It’shardtotracetheorigins,however,oneofthepioneerswasRichardDonchianwhowasagreatpioneerofsystematictradinginthe1950’sand60’s.Thesystemshecreatedover40yearsagoarestillcommonintoday’stradingworldandarethebasisformanyofthecomplexsystemsusedbytheworld’sbesttraders.

Thedictionaryquotesanaverageas“thequotientofanysumdividedbythenumberofitsterms”soifyouwereworkingouta10daymovingaverageofthefollowingnumbers:10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,youwouldaddthemtogetheranddividethemby10,sotheaveragewouldbe55.

Nowwhentomorrow’spricecomesin,let’ssay105,youremovetheoldestnumberand105isadded,sotheaverageis64.5.

Everychartingsoftwarepackagecarriesmovingaveragesasitisthegrandfatheroftrading.Youwillalsofinditonthevariouschartsoninternetsites.Youdon’tneedtoworryaboutworkingitout.

Therearefivepopulartypesofmovingaverages:• simple(alsoreferredtoasarithmetic)• exponential• triangular• variable• weighted

Movingaveragescanbecalculatedonanydataseriesincludingasecurity’sopen,high,low,close,volume,oranotherindicator.


Myfavouriteisnosurprise,it’stheSimpleMovingAverage.Whilesomehavetriedtobecleverbychangingthecalculations,sticktosimple.

Insoftwareorontheinternet,itisoftenabbreviatedto(SMA).

IfthepriceisbelowitsMovingaverage,thenit’sseenasbeingweak;ifit’sabove,it’sstrong.Thechoiceofdaysyouselectwhenusingamovingaveragemakesadifferencetotheresults.Ifyouuseashorttermmovingaverage(Icallshorttermanythinglessthan10days)youwillgetalotofsignals.Ifyouusealongtermmovingaverage,yoursignalswilllag.

Somegoodmovingaveragestostartwitharethe20dayand50daymovingaverages.

ThisisachartoftheUSD/JPYwitha50daySimpleMovingAverage.Whenthepricebreaksbelowthis,ittriggersasellsignal.Some


tradersalsoallowsomeleeway.Theywaitfor3or4daysaftertheMAbreaksbeforemakingthetrade.

Ifthepricemovesabove,youwouldbelookingtoplacebullishbetsandifitbreaksbelow,youwouldplacebearishbets.

Movingaveragesdohavetheirlimitations,however,theycanbeagoodplacetostartinyourquesttobuildawinningsystem.Usingatechnicalsystemalsotakestheemotionsoutofyourtradingdecisions;ratherthanbasingyourtradesonwhatyouthinkshouldhappen,yourtradesarebasedonwhatisactuallyhappeningwiththeprice.

Amovingaveragecanalsostopyoufrommakingstupidmistakessuchasbettingagainstatrend.Ifwerefertothecharts,wecanclearlyseethattheUSDisweakeningagainsttheJPYanditwouldbefoolishtotradeagainstthistrend.

Support and Resistance• Supportlevelsoccurwhentheconsensusisthattheprice

willnotmovelower.Itisthepointwherebuyersoutnumbersellers.

• Resistancelevelsoccurwhentheconsensusisthatthepricewillnotmovehigher.Itisthepointwheresellersoutnumberbuyers.

• Thepenetrationofasupportorresistancelevelindicatesachangeininvestorexpectationsandashiftinthesupply/demandlines.


Tip:

HereweseetheEUR/GBPstayingwithinarangeof0.6679and6880.Thislastedforaround5monthsandwasanidealtimetotradeusingaBarrierRangebet.

NothingstaysinarangeforeverandtowardstheendofAugustweseethepricebreakoutoftherange.Thebreakmeansthatinvestor’sexpectationshavechanged.

When a market breakouts of a range the previous resistance

(top) now becomes support (floor)

Shares,IndicesandcurrenciescanremaininarangeforlongperiodsoftimeandbouncebetweenSupport(bottom)andResistance(top).Thesetypesofsituationsareidealforbarrierrangebets.


ExampleofaBarrierRangeandanExpiryRangeBetIt’simportanttounderstandthedifferencesbetweenthesebets.

BarrierRangeisahigherrisk,buthigherrewardbet.WhatwearesayinghereisthatthemarketwillstaywithintherangeatALLtimesduringthebet.So,ifthemarketjusttouchesthehigherorlowertarget,thenyourbetwillcloseoutatatotalloss.

ThisexampleisontheWallStreetIndex(DowJones)for9dayswitharangeof7900to8900whichisalarge1000pointrangeandispayingagoodreturnof83%.Noticethatitstates“never”.

AsaferoptionwouldbeanEXPIRYRANGE.

Asyoucansee,ithasexactlythesamedetailsbutthe“never”hasgone.Thereturnhascomedownto14%,causesohastherisk.


Withthisbet,itdoesnotmatterifWallStreetgoesbelow7900orabove8900,aslongasattheendofthebet,WallStreetislowerthan8900andhigherthan7900.

TechnicalIndicatorsTheBetOnMarkets.comchartingsoftwareoffersaround27differentindicators.Whilsttechnicalindicatorscanoffersomevalue,Iwouldwarnagainstovercomplicatingmattersandtryingtousetoomanyindicators.

ThisexampleshowsalistoftheindicatorswhichcanbeaddedtochartsatBetOnMarkets.com.

Twoofthewellknowindicatorsinclude:


MACD - Moving Average Convergence DivergenceMACDisanoscillatorthatiscalculatedbytakingthedifferencebetweentwoexponentialmovingaverages.Youcansetthetimeperiodsfortheseyourself.Asignallineisalsoplottedtohelpwiththeinterpretation.

Traditionally,whentheMACDisbelowtheorigin,themarketisconsideredtobeoversoldandwhenit’sabovetheorigin,themarketisconsideredtobeoverbought.AMACDbelowtheorigin(i.e.themarketisoversold)crossingabovethesignalgraphisgenerallybelievedtobeasignaltobuy.

AMACDabovetheorigin(i.e.themarketisoverbought)crossingbelowthesignalgraphisgenerallyconsideredtobeasignaltosell.Thefurtherfromtheorigin,thestrongerthesignal.Typicalsettingsare9,12and26days.

AnexampleoftheEUR/GBPwiththeMACD:


Relative Strength Index (RSI) TheRSIindicatormeasuresashare’sperformanceagainstitself.Itisoftenusedtoidentifybuyopportunitiesinmarketdipsandsellopportunitiesinmarketrallies.ThevalueoftheRSIisalwaysanumberbetween0and100.

Alownumberindicatesamoreoversoldmarket(30),whileahighvalueindicatesamoreoverboughtmarket(70).Thehigherandlowerhorizontallinesonthegraphareat30and70-thelevelsatwhichmarketsareoftenregardedasoversoldoroverbought.

How to trade the RSI with fixed oddsAsyoucanseefromthechart,Gold’sRSIdoesnotstaybelow30orabove70verylong.


WhentheRSIisbelow30,looktobuyBullbets,whentheRSIisabove70,looktobuyBearbets.

UsingPriceChannels-DochianChannels

BetOnMarkets’chartsallowyoutoaddpricechannels.DonchianChannelsplotthehighesthighandthelowestlowoverthepreviousperiod.InthisexampleIamshowingaDonchianChannelwithaperiodof20days.

Theaimhereistotradewithtrendingmarkets.Ifyouseeabreakofthe20daylow,thenyouwouldbelookingtobetwithBear/Downbets.Ifthepricebreaksthe20dayhighyouwouldbelookingtobetwithBull/Upbets.

Youcanselectotherperiodssuchas10,50oreven100.


MoneyManagementWhilstmostnewtradersstartwithgoodintentions,justaspeoplemakingNewYearresolutions,mostendupbreakingthemfairlyquickly.

MoneyManagementdoesnothavetobecomplicated;insimpletermsitmeansthatwehavetodecidetheamountofmoneywewishtoriskonagiventrade.

“ Risk too much and a few bad trades will make you lose your trading bank.”

“ Risk too little and it’s going to be a long time before you see any decent profits.”

Summary:

My course, Making Money From Financial Trading covers much

more on this subject. This introduction is to get you thinking

about using a technical trading system rather than just relying

on news, fundamentals, or even worse, trading on hunches.

Most people trade on emotions or what they read in the newspapers or

see on a business channel; that’s not the way to make money. Having a

systematic way to enter and exit a market may sound a bit boring but

that’s the idea; you need to take away the human emotions from your

trading decisions.


Thegoodnewsisthatfixedoddsbettinghasstrictlylimitedrisk,soifyouriskGBP50,thenthat’sthemostyoucaneverloseonthetrade.

Whilsttheultimatechoiceofriskandrewardisyourdecision,foraccountsoflessthan10,000(dependingonyourhomecurrencyUSD,EUR,GBP)Iwouldgoforaround3%maximumriskpertrade.Foraccountsabovethat,Irecommend2%.

IfyouraccountisUSD3,000orbelow,thengofor4%.

Solet’ssayyouraccounthasUSD5,000,thenyoucanplaceUSD150pertrade.Astheaccountgoesupordown,thebetsizewillvaryaccordingly.

“ The Power of compounding – How to turn small bets in to big profits.”

A Grain of Rice

The daughter of the Chinese Emperor was ill, and he promised

riches beyond compare to whoever could cure her. A young

peasant named Pong Lo entered the palace. With his wit and

bravery he restored the Princess’ health and won her heart. As a reward,

Pong Lo asked for her hand in marriage. The emperor refused and

asked the peasant to think of anything else he would like.


After several moments of thought, Pong Lo asked a grain of rice. “A grain

of rice! That’s nonsense! Ask me for fine silks, the grandest room in the

place, a stable full of wild stallions - they shall be yours!”

“A grain of rice will do” said Pong Lo, “But if his Majesty insists, he may

double the amount every day for a hundred days.”

So on the first day a grain of rice was delivered to Pong Lo. On the

second, 2 grains of rice were delivered, on the third day 4 grains, and

on the fourth day 8 grains. On the fifth day 16 grains, on the sixth day

32 grains, on the seventh day 64 grains, on the eighth day 128 grains.

By the twelfth day the grains of rice numbered 2,048. By the

twentieth day 524,288 grains were delivered. And by the thirtieth day

536,870,912 grains - requiring 40 servants to carry them to Pong Lo.

In desperation the Emperor did the only honourable thing he could do,

and consented to the marriage. Out of consideration for the Emperor’s

feelings, no rice was served at the wedding banquet!

(Retold from a grain of Rice by Helena Pittman)

IthinkthatthisisagreatstoryandIhopeyouunderstandtherelevancetofinancialbettingandinvesting.

Withfixedoddsbettingwecanincreaseorreduceourriskasourbankgoesupordown.Usingthesamegrainofriceprinciple,amodestaccountcangrowveryquickly.


Remember:

ManyofmyBetOnMarketstradeslastaround7days,sothecapitalandprofitscanberolledoverfromonebettoanother.

Ifyoucouldjustachieve1%returnadayonyourcapital,takingthatthereareapproximately250tradingdaysayear,yourreturnwouldbe250%ayear,but

yourcompoundedreturnswouldbemuchhigher.

• YoucanmakemoneyfromUp,DownorSidewaysmovements

Withfixedoddsyoucanmakemoneyfrommarketsmovingup,movingdownorstayinginasidewaysrange,aconceptthatevenprofessionaltradersfindhardtograsp.Evenafterthebigfallsinthemarketsin2008,mosttradersstillwanttobuylowandsellhigh.

Rememberthatmarketsfallfasterthantheyrisesodownbetscanmakequickprofits.Withfixedoddsyoucanbackcurrencies,sharesandindicestofall,allwithlimitedriskandthemostyoucanloseisyourstakewhichcanbeaslowasGBP10.

SidewaysmarketscanbebackedusingBarrierRangebets.UntilBetOnMarkets.comintroducedtheseitwasverycomplicatedtomakemoneyfromrangeboundmarketsandyouwouldhavehadtouseoptionsstrategiessuchassellingoptions.Nowyoucandoitwithasimplebetandwithstrictlylimitedrisk.

C h a p t e r • 4

8 Top Tips for Fixed Odds Trading


Tip:

Youwouldbesurprisedhowoftenacurrency,shareorindexactuallystaysinarange–untilrecentlyyoucouldnotprofitfromranges.

• LearntolovevolatilityWithBetOnMarkets.comyoucanplacean‘UporDown’betwhichbasicallymeans:“Idon’tknowwhatthemarketisgoingtodobutIthinkit’sgoingtomove.”

Aslongasthemarketmovesupordownandbreaksaboveorbelowyourpredictedbarrier,youwillbepaidout.Thisbetisidealafteramarkethasbeengoingsidewaysinanarrowrangeforawhileastheoddsofabreakoutbecomemoreprobable.Thosethatfollowchartscanlookforcontractingtriangleformations.Asthepricesqueezes,youknowthatatsomestageitwillbreakout,normallywithabigmove.With‘UporDown’betyoudon’thavetopredictthedirectionofthebreakoutaslongasitdoesbreakoutwithinyourpredeterminedtime.

Buy a bit of extra time. We all want our bets to payout as quickly

as possible and for the highest payout, but I suggest taking a

slightly lower payout and buying a few extra days of time. So let’s

say your offer is 40% for the NASDAQ touching 1550 in 14 days, try going

for 18 days. The extra few days have saved me on many of my trades.

Chapter 4: 8 Top Tips for Fixed Odds Trading |47

Tip:

• UseOneTouchbetsMarketstendtobelikelightning;theylookforthepathofleastresistance.Whenamarketbreaksabovearesistance(ceiling)level,youtendtofindthatthemarketcarriesoninthesamedirectionforatleastafewmoredays.Theotherwayaround,whenamarketbreaksbelowasupport(floor)level,themarketcarriesonfallinguntilitsnextsupport.

UsingaOneTouchbet,traderscanbacktheseevents.Rememberthatyou’resayingthatthemarketjustneedstotouchthegivenlevel,andthatwouldbeenoughtopayout.

Solet’susearecentGoldexample.GoldstartedtobuildupmomentumandbrokethroughtheUSD830/ozlevel.LookingatthechartIcouldseeUSD850wasthenextpotentialtarget,soIplacedaONETOUCHbetthatGoldwouldtouchUSD850withinthenext14days.GoldwentontohitUSD870withinafewdays,sothebetpaidout.Ofcourse,ifGoldwouldnothavetouchedUSD850duringthese14days,thenmybetwouldhaveexpiredworthlessly.

IfIseethebetgoingagainstmeandtimeisrunningout,Icansellthebetbackandlooktosalvagesomeofthestake.

Markets have a tendency to move to round numbers both

on the upside and downside. You often see this happen in

currencies, indices and individual shares. Look for possible

moves to next levels, especially on falling markets. Just look at the way the

Dow Jones fell from 9,000 to 8,000 in a matter of days back in October 08.


Tip:

• Balance Risk and RewardEveryonelikesthebigpayouts;however,youhavetorememberthereisareasonwhyyou’rebeingoffereda300%return;that’sbecausethereisafairlyslimchancethatthebetwillpayout.Ontheoppositeend,a1%returnishardlygoingtomakeyourichandshouldthebetgowrong,youwouldlosealargestake.

Thesimpleansweristolookforabalanceandmixandmatchtrades.InmyowntradingIamlookingforreturnsbetween40%to100%.

Look to tweak your bets. Before you accept the bet you will be

shown the odds and asked to confirm whether you’re happy or

not. You can adjust the levels and dates and see how this affects

your payout.

• Be a disciplined trader not a reckless gambler

Afteragoodrun,manybecomeoverconfidentandstarttakingstupidrisks.Afterapoorrun,manytrytoplaycatchupandwanttomaketheirlossesbackfast;bothactionsaretheeasiestwaytoloseyourtradingcapital.ManybookshavebeenwrittenonMoneyManagementwithcomplicatedformulas.Thekeyshouldbethatnotonetradeshouldevercauseyousomuch

Chapter 4: 8 Top Tips for Fixed Odds Trading |49

damagefinanciallyoremotionally.IrrespectiveofhowsureyouarethattheXYZisgoingtorocket,onlyapercentageofyourtradingbankshouldberisked.

• Runtwobetstogether,tradingapairAnotherstrategyistotradetwodifferentmarketsthathaveanegativecorrelation.Forexample,GoldandtheUSD.GoldispricedinUSDsoifthedollarweakensthenGoldtendstorise.Goldisalsousedasahedgeagainstfallingcurrencyvalues,soyoucouldlooktohaveaBearbetontheUSD/EURandaBullBetonGold.

TheJapaneseYen(JPY)andtheUSstockmarketsareanotherpairthatcanbetraded.YoumayhaveheardoftheCarryTrade,wheretheJPYissold,asmoneyisborrowedinJPY,andthentheJPYareconvertedandinvestedinhigheryieldingcurrenciessuchastheNewZealandDollar.

IfyoulookattheEUR/JPYandsaytheS&P500youwillseethatastheEUR/JPYweakens(somoneyisflowingbacktotheJPYwhichisthefundingcurrency)asdoestheS&P500.IfyouseeafundingcurrencystrengthensuchastheJPY,itmeanstradersaretakinglessrisk,whichisnotgoodforequitymarkets.

• Seasonality–Historydoesrepeatitselfinmanymarkets

Mytradingstyleusestechnicalanalysiswithseasonality.Mostknowwhattechnicalanalysisis.Seasonalityhowever,isnot


aswellknown.Seasonalityinvolvestheusageofthecalendarandpastresultstoforecastthelikelihoodofthesameeventhappeningagain.Forexample,GoldtendstobestronginSeptemberwhereasstockmarketstendtobeweak.PeriodsaroundmarketholidayssuchasChristmas,Thanksgiving,IndependenceDayandthefirstfewdaysofthemonthtendtobestronger.Thewellknownsaying,“SellinMayandgoaway,”whilstnotperfect,hasworkedasagoodbasetoatradingsystemwhichIusedtomakelargeprofitsin2008.Youwillalsofindseasonalityincommoditiesandsomecurrencies.WatchtheJPYstrengthenaroundMarch,aslargeJapanesecompaniesclosetheirfinancialbooksandtendtoputYenbackontheirbalancesheet.

• CombineSpreadBetsandFixedOddsLet’ssayyouhaveacoreviewthattheFTSE100isgoingdownandyouhaveplacedaspreadbettobackthisidea.AfteraweekorsotheFTSE100startsgoinguporsideways.Youcouldofcoursecloseyourspreadbet,oryoucouldleaveitopenandlooktoplaceafixedoddsbettorunalongsideit;maybeabarrierrange,sowhilstthemarketisgoingsidewaysyourspreadbetwillnotbemakingmoney,butatleastyourfixedoddswillmakeaprofit.

Areyoumissingout?

FixedOddsfinancialbettingisnowover10yearsoldandhascomealongway,offeringbothsmallandnotsosmallclientsawaytobackmarketsinuniqueways.IhavepersonallyusedBetOnMarkets.comsince1999andhavetradedagoodfewmillionpoundsworthofbetsduringthelastfewyears.Icanassureyouthatit’saserioustradingvehiclethatcancomplimentbothspreadbettingandotherformsofinvestinganditspopularitywillcontinuetogrow.Youcanopenafixedoddsaccountwithinminutesandstarttradingwithaslittleas£25.

Regardlessofwhatthefinancialmarketsaredoing,thereareplentyofopportunitiesforyoutoprofitusingBetOnMarkets’fixedoddsbetswithstrictlylimitedrisk.

MayIwishyoueverysuccessasaprofessionalfixedoddsfinancialtrader.

Conclusion

About Vince Stanzione

VinceStanzionehasbeentradingmarketsforover23years.Henowtradeshisownaccountsaswellasteachingothers

andistheauthorof“MakingMoneyfromFinancialTrading.”Formoreinformationgotowww.fintrader.net

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Making a Fortune From Fixed Odds Financial Trading