Major trends – 2013 and beyond

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Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public

Major trends – 2013 and beyondBobby DuffyMD Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute,

Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London

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Start with some predictions for 2013...

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>>

= 1/2

= 1/2

= 3/10

= 4/10

= 1/5

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61% think Britain will fall back into recession

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

Extraordinary year in 2012 – but still one big issue ....all seemed to be going well for a few years....

Representative sample of c. 1000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Ipsos MORI Issues Index

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

The economy

Cameron becomes

PMBrown becomes

PM

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What would you say is the most/other important issue facing Britain today?

Exceptional crisis – but worry about the economy is the norm...

Ipsos MORI Issues Index

1974

1985

1991

1994

2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Economy

Unemployment

Inflation/prices

7


Not a global crisis – and we’re in the unhappiest group

Base: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

R² = 0.489858158846355

Net agree country will never be the same again

Net disagree country will never be the same again

Net last five years good for country

Hungary

BelgiumFrance

GB

Sweden

SpainItaly

Brazil

Net last five years bad for country

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23

43

42

45

35

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When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same?

A new reality – where we expect our children to have a lower quality of life than us

Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Ipsos MORI

% Higher % Lower

November 2011

April 2003

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How do we feel about local?

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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runs things?

Satisfaction with local govt as high as it’s been...

Ipsos MORI

1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 20110%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

National net satisfaction

Year surveyed

Ne

t S

ati

sfa

cti

on

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Trust is up…

Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521) Ipsos MORI

2001 2003 2005 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-1110

20

30

40

50

60

70

52 5457

60 6162 64

Local Council

Per

cen

t

Trust %

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From this list, which two or three of the following do you believe have most impact on people’s everyday lives?

People recognise councils have an impact on everyday lives

Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,156 British adults 18+. Fieldwork dates: 13th - 19th November 2009

Change since 2006 ±%points

n/a

+9Media

+1Local councils

+7Business

+3Civil service

n/aEuropean Union

-8Westminster Parliament

-7Prime Minister

-2Cabinet

Scottish Parliament/Welsh Assembly

(asked in Wales/ Scotland only)

Don’t know

63%

50%

44%

23%

20%

19%

17%

5%

6%

4%

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Who do you trust most to make decisions about how services are provided in your local area?

Clear preference for local decision-making

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013

79%

11%

8%

2%

Your local council

The Coalition government

Neither

Don't know

75% of Conservative voters

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Version 1 | Public

Some love for local – because some loathing of national politics?

Click here to insert cover image

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...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?

Trust in politicians never been high...

Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn

1983 1993 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Doctors

Teachers

Civil servants

Politicians

Journalists

Ordinary man/woman in the street

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...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?

How trusted are local government professions?

Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn

1983 1993 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Doctors

Teachers

Civil servants

Politicians

Journalists

Local Councillors

Managers in Local Government

Ordinary man/woman in the street

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How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this country above the interests of their own political party?

But this is serious...

Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

10

20

30

40

%

% “almost never”

A real crisis of trust?

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And confidence in the government’s policies on public services falling…

c.1,000 British Adults Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services”

Jun-01O

ct-01N

ov-01M

ar-02M

ay-02S

ep-02D

ec-02M

ar-03Jun-03Jul-03S

ep-03D

ec-03M

ar-04Jun-04S

ep-04N

ov-04Feb-05M

ay-05S

ep-05N

ov-05M

ar-06M

ay-06S

ep-06N

ov-06M

ar-07M

ay-07S

ep-07N

ov-07M

ar-08S

ep-08Jun-09N

ov-09Jul-10O

ct-10Jan-11Jun-12

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20 22

36

-18-14

-34

-27

-13

-19

-2

-21

-28 -28

-13

-22-20-22-28

-29

-17

0

-10

-27-32

% net agree

2005 General Election (May 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

2001 General Election (Jun 01) 2010 General Election; Cameron as PM

(May 10)

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There’s also a local/national contrast in blame for cuts

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From what you know, who do you think is most to blame for the level of cuts to public services?

Who’s getting the blame for cuts now?


The previous Labour government

Banks

The state of the global economy

The Coalition government

Local Councils

31

29

18

10

5

26

23

21

21

4

January 2013March 2011

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And when you look at local services?


26

23

21

21

4

The previous Labou...

Banks

The state of the glo...

The Coalition gover...

Local Councils

25

11

17

30

13

Most to blame for the level of cuts to public services?

Most to blame for the level of cuts to local council services?

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I am personally happy to accept less from my local council than I currently get in order to help pay off the national debt

I would be happy to pay more council tax if it helped my local council maintain current levels of service

57

64

40

34

Disagree

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements

Are people expecting more for less? Or willing to pay more for the same?


30% strongly 12% strongly

36% strongly 9% strongly

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To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements

Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT...


I haven’t really noticed any changes to the services provided by my local council

The cuts in local council services have gone too far and will lead to social unrest

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47

65

48

Disagree AgreeNorth a bit more likely to have noticed

– but largest differences by class and party support

Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% Labour

Around one in four people agree with both statements....

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19

42

28

56

How concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of cuts [to local council services] on you and your family in the next 12 months?

There is worry about the future...


21

34

32

121

Very concerned

Fairly concerned

Not very concerned

Not at all concerned

Don't know

Local council services Cuts generally

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% very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and their families

Varies as you’d expect…

Base: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI

AllAB C1 C2 D E

Up to

£19

k

£20k

- £3

5k

£35k

- £5

5k

£55k

+

1-2

ser

vices

3 se

rvice

s

4+ s

ervic

es

6155 58

6269

7772

6054 52 54

61

72

Social grade Income Public service use

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Version 1 | Public

Two other key trends…

Click here to insert cover image

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Our generational balance is changing fundamentally – four roughly equal-sized and very different generations...

Source: Eurostat

Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% pre war generation

% Generation Y

% Generation X

% Baby boomers

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Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

Support for political parties is declining – maybe not by as much as expect?...

Source: British Social Attitudes

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

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Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

...driven by rock solid generational pattern

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war Baby boomers Generation x Generation y

% ‘

yes’

Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat

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“the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”

Declining support for more welfare spending...


1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

55%

28%22%

39%

Agree total

Disagree total

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“the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”

Generations are very different...


1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

@BobbyIpsosMORI

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Lot of focus on “Nudging” behaviour change, using it in demand management, pensions, on organ donation and in letters from tax collectors…..

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“If a man sees a fly, he aims at it”

“Schhpillage was down by 80%...”

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Explosion of behavioural data ...mobile in particular

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90% smartphone ownership in 2-3 years...

Base: circa 1,000 GB adults aged 15+ per wave Source: Ipsos MORI

Any Smartphone (net)

Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul' 11 Nov' 11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 Nov '120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

20

50

12

23

913

9

17

36


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Location & URL Behavioural Data

By Location we can identify, volume, demographics, web use and web based App use

Identify the demographics by

location

Identify the volume of people by location,

where they have come from, where they go to

Web & web based app: before, during & after

they’ve been at location

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Paste co-brand logo

hereEverything Everywhere’s Customer Database

D.O.B, Postcode & gender

28 million

UK SIMS = 15 million

consumers

Demographically Profiled Phone Usage

Geo Location

Mobile WebDomainDuration on siteSession lengthPrevious/next sites visitedAmount of data uploaded/downloaded

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Location & URL Behavioural Data

Saturday 30/06: 124,000 People at Oxford Circus search on the mobile web

364 went on to Pornhub

4,509 went on to BBC

3,048 went on to Ebay 1,264 went

on to TFL

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A day in the life of XX borough...

•Where people go at different points of day•Who goes where? Profile by individual/geo-demographics

•Who never leaves?•What media do they look at, generally and about local issues?

•Can you trigger interaction when residents go to particular places/do particular things?

•Can this be linked to other data?

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In conclusion...

• There is definitely a crisis of trust in political institutions…

• …not really affecting local government – yet• Most haven’t noticed cuts yet – a real credit to public services and councils

• But fearful about the future for services, and for themselves• Criticism of local government not working for central government – but opinions likely to shift more as people notice change

• Need to understand your whole population, generational differences increasingly important...

• Huge opportunities from technology to understand behaviours and interact more

• Good luck...

Thank [email protected]

@BobbyIpsosMORI

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Major trends – 2013 and beyond