Major Projects Conference 2012 - dlgrma.qld.gov.au · Major Projects Conference 2012 Peter...
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Major Projects Conference 2012 Peter Boettcher Chief Executive 22 November 2012
Major Projects Conference 2012 - dlgrma.qld.gov.au · Major Projects Conference 2012 Peter Boettcher Chief Executive . 22 November 2012 . This presentation provides an overview of
This presentation provides an overview of the demand / supply balance for water in the Bowen, Surat and Galilee Basins. SunWater has recently (October) completed an assessment of water demand from the Bowen and Surat Basins by way of an EOI process and discussions with individual companies. Demand figures for the Galilee Basin are drawn from our existing knowledge Base compiled through discussions with various proponents in the Galilee over recent years.
BOWEN
Bowen Basin - Forecast Demand
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Demands for from existing and new mines in the Bowen Basin has shifted considerably in recent months. This shift has seen the demand for additional supplies drift by around 3 years, although the long term forecast remains very strong with some 40,000ML of new supply required by around 2020. As with all demand forecasts these are subject to change in response to market conditions, making the job of planning to meet these demands challenging.
Burdekin Falls Dam • Spare Capacity ~ 50,000ML HP
Burdekin to Moranbah Pipeline (1) • No Spare capacity • Active Market (short term)
Eungella Dam & Pipeline • Spare Capacity 5,300 ML/pa • Upgrade needed for pipeline
Fairbairn Dam and Nogoa Mackenzie • No spare Water allocation • Active Market
Bowen Basin – Existing Supplies
Burdekin Falls Dam
Fairbairn Dam
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The Bowen Basin currently draws supply from 3 major supply systems being Burdekin Falls Dam & Gorge Weir Eungella Dam & Bowen River Weir Fairbairn Dam & Downstream Weirs Both Burdekin & Eungella have spare capacity available to meet new demands.
Bowen Basin – New Supply Options
Connors River Dam & Pipeline • Capacity 373,000 ML • Annual Yield 50,000 ML • 133 km pipeline to Moranbah • Approvals Existing • Cost ~ $1.4billion • Time to deliver 3 yrs from FC
Burdekin - Moranbah Pipeline (2 & 3) • 218 km Pipeline to Moranbah • Capacity of 23,0000 ML/pa • Existing Easement • Cost ~ $700million (each) • Time to deliver 2 yrs from FC
Artist impression Connors River Dam
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New supply Options for the Bowen Basin include Connors River Dam & Pipeline (circa $1.4b) or Double Duplication of the BMP pipeline (circa $700m each)
Bowen Basin – Supply v Demand
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Bowen Basin – Supply v Demand
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TRADING
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Utilisation of existing unused (but contracted) capacity is an option for the short term
Bowen Basin – Supply v Demand
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Trading cannot meet the anticipated demand for more than just a few years.
Bowen Basin – Supply v Demand
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TRADING BMP 2
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The first duplication of the BMP will satisfy part of the forecast demand, leaving around 25,000ML of spare HP allocation left in the BFD. The shortfall in supply remains significant, but it is uncertain whether this demand will actually eventuate.
Bowen Basin – Supply v Demand
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TRADING BMP 2
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BMP 3
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Assuming the forecast becomes fact, then it will be necessary to duplicate the BMP pipeline for a second time. Not sure if this is a trifurcation ?? In any event, costs for this 3rd pipeline will be much higher as upgrades will be needed at the Gorge weir pump station site to accommodate. Following the second duplication the spare capacity in BFD is effectively reduced to Nil.
Bowen Basin – Supply v Demand
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TRADING
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There is of course an alternative to putting more straws into the Burdekin.
Bowen Basin – Supply v Demand
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CONNORS RIVER DAM
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Connors River Dam would yield sufficient to satisfy the full Bowen Basin Demand, leaving existing Burdekin allocations available for other Basins. However, as we know the challenges of dam development, even those with all the relevant environment and other regulatory approvals are reasonably well understood. The infrastructure is essentially non-scalable, meaning there will always be an element of build it and hope they come ! This is not an easy business case for any organisation, public or private.
SURAT
Surat Basin Forecast Demand
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Surat Basin Demands are fairly well defined, but are heavily reliant on other infrastructure proceeding; Surat Basin Rail Wiggins Island Coal Terminal Hopefully throughout the day we will hear more about these developments.
Dawson Valley Weirs • No Spare capacity • Limited Market
Water Harvesting • Limited Volumes
Surat Basin – Existing Supplies
Glebe Weir
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Existing supply options for the Surat are severely limited with no spare capacity in the Dawson system.
Surat Basin – New Supply Options
Woleebee Creek to Glebe Weir Pipeline • BU of CSG Water • 120km pipeline • Capacity 100ML/day • Cost ~$430m • Ready first half 2014 Upgrade Weirs (Glebe / Orange ck) • Additional Capacity 12,400 ML • Yield of 10,500 ML/pa • Cost ~$65m • Time to deliver ~2yrs from FC
Artist impression Nathan Dam
Nathan Dam & Pipeline • Capacity 880,000 ML • Yield of 66,000 ML/pa • EIS in Progress • Cost ~$630m (dam only) • Time to deliver ~3yrs from FC
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New supply options are more promising with a combination of Beneficial Use of Treated CSG water Upgrades to existing weirs, and ultimately Nathan Dam
Surat Basin Supply v Demand
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Surat Basin Supply v Demand
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CSG Water Profile
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The first water solutions is to make best use of the water resources produced by the gas industry. SunWater is working with QGC and others to develop a pipeline and beneficial use scheme that will make water available for industry, but also agriculture.
Surat Basin Supply v Demand
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CSG Water Profile
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CSG Water does not meet all the demand, and its volumes and duration into the future is uncertain This makes a CSG water solution effectively unbankable for the coal sector on a stand alone basis. It needs to be supported y a longer term strategy to ensure future supply security.
Surat Basin Supply v Demand
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CSG Water Profile
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DAWSON WEIRS
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Upgrades to the Dawson Valley weirs provides a sound plan for the future provided that CSG water continues as forecast, and The forecast demand does not eventuate
Surat Basin Supply v Demand
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The long term strategy therefore needs to include a large secure surface water solution
Surat Basin Supply v Demand
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CSG Wate Profile
NATHAN DAM
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This is where Nathan dam fits in to the overall supply strategy.
GALILEE
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The Galilee is more problematic. There is no existing infrastructure of any scale, and untested local water supply options.
Galilee Basin – Forecast Demand
• Northern Galilee – 23,000 ML/pa
• Southern Galilee – 25,000 ML/pa
• Timing subject to project commencement dates and all other enabling infrastructure yet to be confirmed.
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Total anticipated water demand in the Galilee is expected to reach around 50,000ML Although the timeframe is uncertain.
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In the North the solution is seemingly straight forward. A pipeline from the Burdekin Falls Dam is s sensible solution, provided this water hasn’t already bee taken by the more advanced Bowen Basin.
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For the central & Southern Galilee, the Moranbah to Alpha pipeline is a possibility. Although, absent Connors River Dam this is also competing with the Bowen Basin for water from the Burdekin.
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A second option for the Southern Galilee is to draw water from Fairbairn Dam. This strategy essentially relies on securing water through the market (buying MP allocation from farmers) and then converting those allocations to High priority allocations to provide the necessary security of supply. At a 3:1 conversion ratio this would require some 75,000ML to be acquired on market. This strategy could be combined with the development of local supplies, but again these are untested an would need significant DD to make them bankable.
Galilee Basin – Supply Options
• Pipelines (rely on existing source infrastructure) – BFD to Northern Galilee
• 190km, 23,000ML/pa, ~$550 million • Competing with Bowen Basin from BFD
– Moranbah to Alpha • 265km, 25,000ML/pa, ~$680 million • Competing with Bowen Basin from BFD
– Fairbairn to Alpha • 230km, 25,000ML/pa, ~$600 million • Difficult to access this volume in market (3:1 ratio) • Could combine with local supply options
Key Points
• Significant demand forecast for all 3 basins, however timing of demand is shifting out.
• Competition between coal basins for existing supplies which cannot satisfy all.
• New supply options are available to meet forecast demands
• Uncertainty over demand timing impacts on sequencing and cost of new supply alternatives
