MAJOR MARKET DATA

Monday 20 March 2017 - 1

Monday 20 March 2017

4:39:50 PM

Richard Coppleson

Bell Potter Securities Ltd

ABN 25 006 390 7721

AFSL 243480

This communication has been prepared by the Institutional Sales and Trading Desk and is not the product of the Research Department. It is not, and is not intended to be a research report.

In today’s market:

Mkt today … TLS, CWN, MQG, CGF, FLT, CWN AAC

Insider (Director) Selling what 2 insiders has hold us in the past !!

Gold has actually "outperformed in 8 out of the last 9" US tightening periods

The Fed are behind the curve

MAJOR MARKET DATA


INTRA DAY CHART OF ASX 200

KIDS EXAM ANSWERS


AUSTRALIAN MARKET OVERVIEW

1. The ASX 200 came back today (in very quiet Monday trade) by -21 points or -0.36%. 2. Mkt was down -31 pts at 4pm but a buy on close in the 4.10pm "match" saw mkt add +10 points

to see it close down -20.7 points… 3. Value was pathetic at just $4 billion & block trades were hard to find. 4. Most of the day - the mkt just drifted lower with little interest with the top 10 stocks in ASX 200

accounting for -16 points (or 77%) of the 31 point fall. 5. The biggest detractors from the ASX 200 were Telstra {$4.66; -10; -2.10%}, CBA {$84.43; -34; -0.40%},

Westpac {$34.56; -9 -0.26%}, ANZ {$31.41; -17; -0.54%}, SCG {$4.19; -12; -2.78%}, Wesfarmers {$43.80; -20; -0.45%}, RIO {$62.39; -54; -0.86%} and Harvey Norman {$4.36; -39; -8.21%}.

Table shows biggest additions & detractors the ASX 200 index today:

6. The big profit downgrade today came from a stock I like & have backed for a while - so it was a real shock the see a company like Fletcher Building {$7.51; -83; -9.95%} come out with a profit downgrade. This was totally out of the blue...

7. Telstra {$4.66; -10; -2.10%} accounted for the biggest point fall on ASX 200 despite Goldman Sachs today saying that they see value in Telstra shares after significant underperformance in recent weeks. “Following a 9 per cent fall since its interim result, Telstra now trades on a fully franked yield of 6.6 per cent - amongst the highest in the market, ”Goldman Sachs’ sum of the parts valuation implies a PE multiple of 6.3 times on Telstra Mobiles or an A$880 million (20 per cent) EBITDA decline, which looks to be “overly discounted” Look its simple there are 5 stocks that the self-funded retires own by a long shot - the 4 banks & Telstra. So Matt Ross will be right for a while - Telstra is due for a classic “dead cat bounce” it could crawl its way back to $5.00 but I’m not a fan of Telstra & haven’t been for years – it’s in a terminal decline (unless they can shake themselves out of it) and yes it’ll bounce back to $5.00 – but sell it if it gets there…

8. It was a very quiet Monday, with most instos happy to play the market today from the sidelines. 9. Dividends Today AIA {$6.25; -20; -3.10%} 9.4, AYS {$1.80; -2.5; -1.37%} 4,CGC {$4.30; -5; -1.15%} 4,

CNU {$3.83; -6; -1.54%} 7.9476, LNK {$7.45; -25; -3.25%} 6, SHJ {$0.54; -3; -5.26%} 0.6, SPO {$0.73; 0; 0.00%} 1.35.

10. Dividends Tomorrow (Tues) WEB {$11.07; -21; -1.86%} 7.5. 11. Crown {$11.52; 6; 0.52%} better after we saw US Casinos better on Friday night after CS bullish on

Macau – they see March GGR is on track to accelerate to +17% (consensus 10-15%). Also Melco Intl (+8.2%) was upgraded by BNP (on Thursday) and that saw Melco in US +4% & Wynn +3.8% on Friday.


12. Hardies {$20.29; -5; -0.25%} / Boral {$6.01; -1; -0.17%} US Homebuilders weaker as we head to more housing data next week...along with KB Home and Lennar earnings.

13. Macquarie {$88.57; -33; -0.37%} Brokers weaker after 10y yield drifted back to 2.5% - also Asset Managers lagged after Morgan Stanley said global asset managers could see revenues slump as

much as -30% in 2yrs if pressure on fees and returns continues unabated. They Downgraded T Rowe (-3.6%) and Franklin Res (-3.8%).

14. Flight Centre {$28.60; -23; -0.80%} normally a stock goes up on this but FLT was down (not a good sign) - but CLSA running a story that FLT looks attractive to private equity, with cost cutting and a pullback in international expansion plans “obvious opportunities”. However, “insiders” account for 46% of the share register and are unlikely to wish to cede control. CLSA says it “looks cheap on both an absolute and relative basis.”

15. Challenger {$12.23; 11; 0.91%} stock is still one of the best long term stocks in the market & I still see them gradually moving higher over the long term - if you own it you wouldn’t even think of selling it.. Citi did a note last week upgraded their recommendation & increased earnings as “Longer dated sales and lower maturities likely key factors Upgraded to EPS, lift to Neutral - Their review of our Challenger earnings to factor in the impact of more longer dated sales, we lift our EPS FY17E: +0.1% ; FY18E: +6% FY19E: +5%. Our FY17E normalised EPS rises 0.1cps to 67.4 cps. Although we still believe Challenger is unlikely to materially beat its FY17E Life CoE guidance the improved outlook for the future suggests it is not as expensive as we previously thought. Consequently, we lift our call to Neutral with a new $11.90 target price.

16. TPG Telecom {$6.62; -7; -1.05%} reports tomorrow CS forecast is 1H17 EBITDA of $410.7mn (+11.4% vs pcp)., with forecast underlying growth of c.4% after adjusting for three less weeks of iiNet in pcp and three additional months of FAD savings in 1H17 (adds cA$10mn to EBITDA). CS forecast 1H17 NPAT of A$192.6mn (+18.7% vs pcp) & expect FY17 guidance for $820-830mn EBITDA to be reiterated (at its December AGM TPG said it was 'tracking well' to guidance). CS calculate that the total broadband market added 210k subscribers in the 6m to December (ex-FTTB) and we forecast TPG will make up 22% share of net adds in the period (slightly below its overall market share of 25%).

17. Crown {$11.52; 6; 0.52%} James Packer’s Crown Resorts casinos face scrutiny.. The Victorian gambling regulator is poised to begin a review of Crown Resorts’ flagship Melbourne casino as its NSW counterpart conducts “ongoing inquiries” into James Packer’s fitness to run a gambling operation in Sydney. A five-yearly review of the Melbourne casino licence will begin within 14 weeks, a spokeswoman for the Victorian Commission for Gambling and Liquor Regulation told The Australian. The review, which will examine Crown’s financial strength and its “suitability” to hold the ¬casino licence, comes at a delicate time for the Packer-controlled group, which has been rocked by the continuing detention of 14 Crown staff in China on suspicion of “gambling-related” offences. (Aust)

18. Aust Ag {$1.54; 2.5; 1.65%} after a period of underperformance, firmer today with press reports (AFR pg 9) that "Beef sales to china may come in from the cold". China's Premier Li Keqiang 4 day Australian visit this week will focus on trade talks. The beef industry is hoping this will result in relaxed import restrictions. Chinese imports of chilled beef were halted in sept 2013, before a slight relaxation in mid-2014. There will be a discussion this week between Premier Li and PM Turnbull on the issue.


INSIDER (DIRECTOR) SELLING – A FEW WORTH COMMENTING ON

RAMSAY HEALTH CARE {$65.56; 36; 0.55%}

1. This has had a remarkable smack in the face - that this stock is not used to. Ramsay reported on the

23rd March & on the day fell -3.3%(and on the day they reported was down as much as -8.8%) -never

a good sign.

2. But since then the stock has gone into “free fall” and has fallen 13 days out of 15 – from $71.74 to

now $62.68 a drop of -$9.16 or -12.7% to now its lowest level in 11 months.

3. When they reported they came out with an “in line” result but some reasons it has come back could be

4. Over the 3 weeks the stock before reporting RHC had rallied +10% into its result,

5. the stock trades on a forward PE of 26x so needs huge EPS growth to continue

6. the Healthscope result the day saw HSO’s EBITDA was +6% - above mkt & on the day saw HSO up

+5.8% and after a period in the sin bin their prospects may be improving - which could mean we have

been seeing some switching out of Ramsay that trades on 26x into the remerging HSO that trades

on 21x (at the same time that RHC has fallen -12% Healthscope has no moved)

7. CEO Chris Rex – who’s been at coy for 22 odd years announced at the result that he intended to

retire this year BUT mkt didn’t like the fact that they have no replacement in mind yet.

8. We have seen not 1 - but 2 - Directors selling & this is a ‘warning sign’.

9. Christopher Paul Rex - CEO last week sold 400,000 shares at $68.10 - worth $27.2m (still holds

806,213). These were sold On-market trade for the purposes of Mr. Rex: undertaking the orderly

diversification of his personal investment portfolio following the announcement of his intention to retire

in 2017; and satisfying his tax liability arising from shares received as part of his remuneration

10. Bruce Roger Soden CFO, Group Finance Director - sold 110,000 shares at $68.18 - worth $7.5m

(still holds) 290,791 These were sold On-market trade to satisfy tax liability arising from shares

received as part of his remuneration

11. Ok Chris Rex is retiring so that’s a good reason to sell & he did say in January “I've got millions of

things I would like to do before I die and I want to get cracking on them,”

12. On top of this we are also going to see soon the estate of the late founder Paul Ramsay sell around

$500m in Ramsay stock – which is 32% of their $4.5 billion, to partly to fund a support the

establishment of “the Ramsay Centre”

History & Quant Studies have told me what to look out for when Directors Buy & Sell

Over the years I have looked at director (or what we also call "Insiders" ) selling & director buying

Plus - there have been “Quant” studies done on this at the brokers I have worked at.

The results are that....

Director buying is a small positive,

Director selling (if reasons are ok i.e. due to building a house or funding a tax liability) a small negative

- but given most need to sell stock to fund their lifestyles it isn't a major worry most times ..

BUT

When - over the years - we have seen 2 or more Directors in the same company sell within a close

time period – it’s a “red flag event” -it has been a huge negative for the share price as its a sign to


many that if they are selling they may think the stock is at an "expensive level" or worse that maybe

things are not going so well at that company…

Most times this has seen the stock under performs for some time after.

Even if the reasons are legitimate – the market is always cautious when more than 1 director sells

stock.

In this case of Ramsay Healthcare - we are seeing the CEO leaving the company & he wants cash - fair

enough - so maybe the market will look through that?

Still for now I can’t see Ramsay outperforming in the next few months at least.

The last time we saw 2 Directors selling (and this time we really should have taken notice) was....

BELLAMAY’S {$3.82; 1; 0.26%} - LAST YEAR ON THE 28TH AUGUST 2016

1. Bellamy’s Managing Director & CEO Laura McBain sold 165,000 shares at $14.54 ,

2. Chair Rob Woolley has sold 200,000 shares at $14.60.

3. The reasons given were “Laura and Rob will be investing in personal assets and supporting private

family investments.” Laura continues to hold 1,000,376 shares, while Rob continues to hold 252,277

shares in the Company.

4. As we know a lot has gone down with Bellamy’s & the stock is now trading around $3.86.

5. That is probably one of the more extreme examples (actually the most extreme I've seen) of what can

happen when we see a number of Directors selling.

6. So in Ramsay’s case the stock has come back a long way – it’s a premium company that has one

problem in this market – it’s an expensive stock with a high PE, in a market that is still de rating

high PE stocks.

7. So the winners here have been the Healthscope holders whose stock price has remained steady

while Ramsay has been hammered -12%.

Some other Insider selling recently…

COMPUTERSHARE {$13.93; 0; 0.00%}

This stock has surged from $8.60 in August last year to $10.30 by November 2016 & now up to its

highest level ever - around $14.00 - the market loves it & maybe this is a sign that we should now be

wary of in the short term - we have seen not 1 but 2 Directors selling...

Christopher Morris Non-executive Director sold 2m shares ($2.7m).

Penelope Madagan Non-executive Director sold 183,157 shares.

MANTRA {$2.65; -5; -1.85%}

Stock has been under a lot of pressure & has fallen MTR - Bob East, the Chief Executive Officer - on

Friday a notice went out that he sold 250,000 shares at $2.81.

This is an interesting in that the stock has come back from $4.50 a year ago, to $3.50 in October to

$3.00 on the 15th Feb.

On the 9th March the stock hit its lowest level in 2 years at $2.64 & has bounced a bit since then.

Look this will not be well received by the market, when the stock is at 2 year lows & some brokers

are saying it’s cheap & a buy here & now you have the CEO selling stock – it’s just not a great look –

no matter what the reasons are.


TRANSURBAN {$11.11; -2; -0.18%}

Back on 7th March Transurban CEO Louis Charlton sold 350,000 shares at $11.02 it was an on-market

trade “to fund impending tax obligations.

Given TCL was trading at $9.60 back in November & has rallied, the CEO has simply waited & given the

stock looks toppy around $11.00 (to me anyway )this was a good level to sell at especially if we see

part 2 of the bond proxy selloff later on this year (as interest rates continue to rise globally)…

I’m with the CEO of this one - I’d be a SELLER of Transurban here around $11.00.

DIVIDENDS THIS WEEK

MAJOR DIVIDENDS PAID THIS WEEK

Source Coppo report

Contrary to popular belief -- Gold has actually "outperformed in 8 out of the

last 9" US tightening periods

According to - Mcalinden Research Partners –

Conventional wisdom continues to argue that rising rates would lead to lower gold prices.

The Federal Reserve has now raised the Fed Funds rate by a quarter of a point once in December 2015

and once again in December 2016. Per the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed

expects to raise rates three more times this year.

The price of gold, meanwhile, is up, not down, from its level just before the first hike.


Nonetheless, the prospect of rising rates is often offered as a reason why gold will not go higher

but, rather, will be hurt in the year ahead.

Indeed, conventional wisdom is that rising interest rates is going to hurt gold.

Yet, that reasoning defies the lessons of history: it is clearly not axiomatic that when rates are

hiked, gold slumps.

More often, that has not been the case.

Indeed, while perhaps counter-intuitive, the historical evidence points at times in the opposite

direction from conventional wisdom.

Since gold was freed from its fixed value in 1971, there have been 9 tightening cycles.

Gold rose during 8 of the 9.

Also, it should be remembered that during the 4 years following its 2011 peak, gold lost almost half

its value in the face of zero interest rates and the easiest monetary policy in modern history.

Conventional wisdom must have been on an extended vacation during this period.

Source MCALINDEN RESEARCH PARTNERS

Source MCALINDEN RESEARCH PARTNERS


THE FED ARE BEHIND THE CURVE - GOOD ARTICLE ON THIS

With US employment growth again surprising forecasters and the jobless rate declining to a boom-time

4.7 per cent, below "full-employment", the question is whether central banks, and the Federal

Reserve in particular, are "behind the curve", the AFR's Christopher Joye says:

In research this week, Goldman Sachs assessed this using a framework previously advocated by Fed

chair Janet Yellen. Goldman found "the Fed's current policy stance is about 1 percentage point

easier than prescribed by a Taylor rule that uses a depressed neutral rate" and about 3 percentage

points easier when adopting a more normal neutral cash rate of about 4 per cent. The latter assumption

"implies that the current policy stance represents the largest dovish policy deviation since the 1970s",

which coincided with an inflation break-out.

"The implication that current policy is somewhat 'too easy' is consistent with the fact the [US]financial

conditions index remains easier than average and is still delivering a positive growth impulse at a

time when the Fed is trying to impose deceleration," Goldmans said.

The investment bank warns"history counsels caution about falling behind"with the experience of

the mid 1960s suggesting that inflation increases much more quickly at very low unemployment

rates.

Could history repeat itself? Much hinges on policymakers' humility. Central bankers are not fond of

acknowledging errors, often rationalising ex post facto via the meme that "this time is different", which

can be exacerbated by the desire to propagate an image of infallibility. Remember the once-lionised

monetary maven Alan Greenspan?

These risks have certainly spooked interest rate investors,although the adjustment process has a

way to run. After the second biggest fall in fixed-rate (as opposed to floating-rate) bond prices in modern

history in the December quarter, the spectre of a Fed hike in March - duly delivered last week - has lifted

long-term rates further.

In Australia the 10-year government bond yield is nearing 3 per cent, significantly higher than the sub-

2% level traders—gripped by "cheap money forever" fever—priced in September 2016.

Current 10-year yields are, however, still miles below the 5.5% average since the Reserve Bank of

Australia started targeting inflation in 1993.

Some of the best interest rate traders I know, almost all of whom have never experienced a proper

inflation cycle, genuinely believe the RBA "will never hike again".

http://www.afr.com/markets/new-ellerston-macro-traders-brett-gillespie-tim-toohey-see-tipping-point-20170316-guztxc

http://www.afr.com/markets/new-ellerston-macro-traders-brett-gillespie-tim-toohey-see-tipping-point-20170316-guztxc

http://www.afr.com/markets/stocks-a-rally-on-dovish-us-fed-chair-janet-yellen-20170315-guz27i


RISES & FALLS

RISES

Syrah {$2.69; 16; 6.32%} is expected to announce a commercial off take agreement for battery-grade

graphite on its strategy day, April 4. (AFR)

Blackmores {$100.50; 181; 1.83%} has been fined $65,000 by authorities in China for misleading

advertising, prompting the company to toughen up its own internal procedures. (AFR)

NAB {$32.24; 12; 0.37%} surprised the industry with a fresh out-of-cycle hike on variable and investor

interest rates. (Aust)

FAR Limited {$0.08; 0; 0.00%} Buy (Speculative), Valuation $0.27ps – Peter Arden

Flow testing of thinner upper sands exceeds expectations Flow testing confirms potential value in thin upper

sands Successful flow testing of the SNE-5 appraisal well has been achieved ahead of schedule and

significantly below budget. SNE-5 is effectively the first of several pre-development wells into the SNE oil field in

offshore Senegal by joint venture (JV) partners - Cairn Energy, 40% and Operator; ConocoPhillips, 35% (whose

stake has been sold to Woodside Petroleum subject to resolution of the pre-emptive rights); FAR, 15%; and

Petrosen, 10%. SNE-5 achieved a series of flow tests of the thinner, upper reservoir sands, which were in line

with or exceeded pre-drill expectations and a previously untested reservoir section was found to be much better

than expected. The SNE-5 results are supportive of the ultimate potential for the SNE field to contain over

1Bbbls of recoverable oil as a greater extent of productive reservoirs such as the upper sands and deeper shelf

edge carbonates is successfully demonstrated. Aptian carbonate target being tested ahead of SNE-6

Following the success of the SNE-5 well and in particular the extremely timely and cost-efficient drilling of the

well, the JV has decided to drill the VR-1 well now before drilling the planned SNE-6 well. The VR-1 well will be

an appraisal well for the SNE reservoirs in the western part of the field and it will also evaluate the deeper Aptian

exploration targets in limestone. Through the highly efficient drilling of the SNE-5 well, the JV believes the cost of

the VR-1 well can be drilled at minimal additional cost to the original drilling campaign budget. The effective

outcome achieved by the drill ship Stena DrillMAX in the SNE-5 well augers well for the remaining two wells in

the current program. The drill ship has moved to the VR-1 well location, which is about 5km to the west of the

SNE-1 discovery, and will drill the SNE-6 well after that. Oil prices back at US$50 on hints output discipline

waning Production cuts by major OPEC members, particularly Saudi Arabia, and an apparent reduction in non-

OPEC output and some increase in demand had seen oil prices (Brent) stabilising around US$55/bbl for the past

three months to early March, however, global oil prices have fallen quite sharply over the past week to around

US$50. The sudden fall in the oil price is seen as a response to signs that Saudi Arabia may have eased up on

its hefty production cutback, but this will become clearer with more data. Meanwhile drilling and production

activity in North America continues to recover. The USA rig count is at a 17-month high as the US shale oil

industry finds ways to remain viable at lower oil prices, making it likely that US oil production will continue to rise.

Investment thesis – Valuation $0.27/sh (unchanged). The latest results from the flow and pressure testing of

the SNE-5 well in offshore Senegal confirm our very positive view of the large SNE oil field. We note signs of

portfolio changes that indicate the market generally does not seem willing to recognise the global scale and

major significance of the two large oil discoveries by the JV in offshore Senegal but the continued high success

rate there is a strong pointer to the quality of the major new oil province. We have retained our equity diluted

valuation of $0.27 per share and Speculative Buy recommendation.

Disclosure: Bell Potter Securities acted as Lead Manager for the $60m placement in April 2016 and

received fees for that service.

https://www.bellpotter.com.au/onlineresearch/fileGet.aspx?guid=4466397F-ED84-400F-A493-2E95C6397058


Pioneer Credit {$2.11; 3; 1.44%} (Initiation) Buy, TP $2.50 – Lafitani Sotiriou

An emerging gem Transfer of coverage, reinstating Buy recommendation We reinstate our Buy

recommendation on Pioneer Credit (PNC) following an internal transfer of coverage. Given our firm’s last report

was around mid-2016, we are treating it as a re-initiation of coverage, providing a full analysis. PNC is an

Australian financial services provider, specialising in the acquisition and servicing of unsecured retail debt

portfolios, with a preference for credit card and personal loans. More recently the company is expanding its

product and services by targeting its active customer base, which can be overlooked by the wider market. We

believe PNC has carved out a profitable part of the market with a differentiated strategy and with innovative

ways to grow the earnings base. We recommend Buying PNC with a reinstated Price Target of $2.50 per share.

Growth in book provides upside to earnings estimates We reinstate our earnings estimates with a healthy 7-

10% pa EPS growth range expected over the medium-term. We believe there is upside risk to these estimates

given the increased Purchased Debt Portfolio (PDP) investment occurring in FY17, and given the success the

company has had in collecting from all parts of the book (less than a year to over three years). With a recently

secured $100m syndicated loan facility with Westpac and Bankwest (December 2016), the company is in a

stronger position to reach its growth potential. Guidance for FY17 underlying NPATPNC has guided for FY17

underlying NPAT to be $10.5m, which compares to our $10.8m estimate. Our final year dividend payment

estimate is for 6.3cps, versus a total of 10.52cps estimate for FY17 – representing a 5.1% dividend yield. We

value PNC using a blended Free Cash Flow Yield valuation methodology including a spot and NPV calculation,

both of which assume a steady state of investment.

Disclosure: Bell Potter Securities acted as Lead Manager in PNC's $5.8m capital raising in April 2016 and

received fees for that service.

FALLS

1. BHP {$24.88; 4; 0.16%} Former Westpac chief executive Gail Kelly has emerged as a surprise

contender for BHP Chair. (Aust)

2. RIO {$62.39; -54; -0.86%} After meeting with Trump administration officials, Jean-Sebastien Jacques is

upbeat on US infrastructure policies. (Aust)

3. Santos {$3.69; -4; -1.07%} has warned that there could be job losses and industrial closures if its

$3.6bn Narrabri coal-seam gas project does not go ahead. (Aust)

4. Suncorp {$13.26; -8; -0.60%} will decide as early as next month whether to push ahead with an

auction of their life insurance operations. (AFR)

5. Macquarie {$88.57; -33; -0.37%} agrees to buy Cargill petroleum-trading unit.

6. Orocbre {$2.88; -2; -0.69%} sells projects from Argentine unit to Advantage Lithium for shares,

warrant.

7. BHP {$24.88; 4; 0.16%} Said to sell May NW Shelf oil to Hanwha Total.

8. Myer {$1.10; -3.5; -3.08%} was upgraded to outperform at Macquarie, PT $1.21.

9. Scentre Group {$4.19; -12; -2.78%} Seeks to sell $500m, 10-yr debt.

10. Woodside {$31.37; -17; -0.54%} Said to sell NW Shelf condensate for May to Mitsui.

https://www.bellpotter.com.au/onlineresearch/fileGet.aspx?guid=5D0C3A9C-933D-46A2-A686-81D6A7DD0305


US prison population by type of crime

Source Economist

BANKS

ANZ {$31.41; -17; -0.54%}, CBA {$84.43; -34; -0.40%}, CYBG PL&C {$4.26; -2; -0.47%}, NAB {$32.24; 12;

0.37%}, Westpac {$34.56; -9 -0.26%}, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank {$11.65; -6; -0.51%}, Bank of Queensland

{$11.76; -7; -0.59%}

FINANCIAL SERVICES / MARKET RELATED STOCKS

Macquarie Bank {$88.57; -33; -0.37%}, QBE {$12.91; -14; -1.07%}, IAG {$6.01; -6; -0.99%}, Suncorp {$13.26;

-8; -0.60%}, Austbrokers {$11.56; -25; -2.12%}, Computershare {$13.93; 0; 0.00%}, ASX {$49.95; -65; -

1.28%}, Cabcharge {$3.93; 3; 0.77%}, Flexigroup {$2.33; -2; -0.85%}, IRESS {$11.43; -18; -1.55%}

FUND MANAGERS / BROKERS

Challenger {$12.23; 11; 0.91%}, BT Investment {$9.85; 1; 0.10%}, Hendersons {$3.72; -5; -1.33%}, Platinum

Asset {$5.02; -4; -0.79%}, Bell Financial {$0.66; 0; 0.00%}, K2 Asset Mgt {$0.38; 2; 5.56%}, AMP {$5.01; -4;

-0.79%}, Perpetual {$52.09; -39; -0.74%}, IOOF {$8.27; -6; -0.72%}, Magellan {$23.70; -9; -0.38%}


INSURERS

AMP {$5.01; -4; -0.79%}, IAG {$6.01; -6; -0.99%}, Medibank {$2.88; 2; 0.70%}, NIB Holdings {$5.72; 15;

2.69%}, QBE {$12.91; -14; -1.07%}, Suncorp {$13.26; -8; -0.60%}, Austbrokers {$11.56; -25; -2.12%},

Steadfast {$2.45; -1; -0.41%}, Tower {$1.20; 0; 0.00%}

RETAILERS

Harvey Norman {$4.36; -39; -8.21%}, JB Hi-Fi {$23.99; -70; -2.84%}, Myer {$1.10; -3.5; -3.08%}, Metcash

{$2.23; -3; -1.33%}, Adairs {$1.14; 0.5; 0.44%}, Automotive Holdings {$4.03; -1; -0.25%}, Burson {$5.69; 0;

0.00%}, Breville {$10.14; -4; -0.39%}, Oroton Group {$1.50; -0.5; -0.33%}, Pacific Brands {$1.05; 0; 0.00%},

Premier Investments {$13.72; 0; 0.00%}, RCG Corp {$1.05; -0.5; -0.48%}, Super Retail {$10.34; -36; -3.36%},

Speciality Fashion {$0.57; -2; -3.42%}, The Reject Shop {$8.05; -12; -1.47%}, Thorn Group {$1.67; 2;

1.21%}, Godfreys {$0.73; 1; 1.39%}, Wesfarmers {$43.80; -20; -0.45%}, Woolworths {$25.84; -3; -0.12%},

Webjet {$11.07; -21; -1.86%}, Kathmandu {$1.78; -2.5; -1.39%}, Billabong {$1.24; 0.5; 0.40%}, Fantastic

Furniture {$3.50; 0; 0.00%}

HEALTHCARE

Ansell {$22.94; 2; 0.09%}, Australian Pharmaceutical {$2.03; 0; 0.00%}, Cochlear {$130.91; -115; -0.87%},

CSL {$125.06; 172; 1.39%}, Capital Health {$0.15; 0; 0.00%}, Healthscope {$2.22; -1; -0.45%}, Invocare

{$14.15; -2; -0.14%}, Mesoblast {$2.12; 0; 0.00%}, Mayne Pharma {$1.26; -1.5; -1.18%}, Primary Healthcare

{$3.41; 12; 3.65%}, Ramsay Healthcare {$65.56; 36; 0.55%}, Resmed {$9.25; -3; -0.32%}, Sonic Healthcare

{$21.35; 16; 0.76%}, Sigma {$1.23; 0; 0.00%}, Sirtex Medical {$17.52; 23; 1.33%}, Virtus Health {$5.69; 14;

2.52%}, Fisher & Paykel Health {$8.81; -6; -0.68}

MEDIA

APN News & Media {$2.64; -1; -0.38%}, APN Outdoor {$5.60; 2; 0.36%}, Carsales {$11.24; 5; 0.45%}, Fairfax

{$1.02; -0.5; -0.49%}, iCar Asia {$0.27; -1.5; -5.26}, Newscorp {$16.74; -19; -1.12%}, Nine Entertainment

{$1.12; 0.5; 0.45%}, REA Group {$57.58; -32; -0.55%}, Seek {$14.96; 22; 1.49%}, Seven West Media {$0.68; -

1; -1.45%}, Sky Network TV {$3.23; 1; 0.31%}, Southern Cross Media {$1.30; 0; 0.00%}, Trade Me {$4.77; -4;

-0.83%}, Ten Network {$0.60; -2; -3.23%}

TELCOS

Telstra {$4.66; -10; -2.10%}, Hutchison {$0.08; 0; 0.00%}, Nextdc {$3.99; 3; 0.76%}, Spark NZ {$3.11; -4; -

1.27%}, Chorus {$3.83; -6; -1.54%}, TPG Telecom {$6.62; -7; -1.05%}, Macquarie Telecom {$13.28, 3, 0.23%}

TRANSPORT

Brambles {$9.14; 10; 1.11%}, Recall {$8.33; 0; 0.00%}, Aurzion {$5.31; -9; -1.67%}, Qantas {$3.81; 2; 0.53%},

Qube {42.45; -1; -0.41%}, Virgin {40.19; -0.5; -2.56%}, Alliance Aviation {$0.71; -0.5; -0.70%}, MMA Offshore

{$0.23; 1; 4.65%}, Sydney Airport {$6.44; 6; 0.94%}, Auckland Airport {$6.25; -20; -3.10%}, Air NZ {$2.08; -1;

-0.48%}, Macquarie Atlas Road {$4.48; -4; -0.81%}, Transurban {$11.11; -2; -0.18%}


TRAVEL & TOURISM

Qantas {$3.81; 2; 0.53%}, Sydney Airport {$6.44; 6; 0.94%}, Auckland Airport {$6.25; -20; -3.10%}, Air NZ

{$2.08; -1; -0.48%}, Virgin {40.19; -0.5; -2.56%}, Webjet {$11.07; -21; -1.86%}, Ardent Leisure {$1.63; -0.5; -

0.31%}, Event Hospitality {$12.37; 6; 0.49%}, Corporate Travel Management {$19.38; -9; --0.46%}, Cover-

More {$1.94; 1; 0.52%}, Flight Centre {$28.60; -23; -0.80%}, Sea Link Travel {$4.29; -10; -2.28%}, Mantra

{$2.65; -5; -1.85%}

BUILDING MATERIALS

Adelaide Brighton {$5.61; 1; 0.18%}, Boral {$6.01; -1; -0.17%}, CSR {$4.47; -4; -0.89%}, Hardies {$20.29; -5;

-0.25%}, GWA {$2.76; 2; 0.73%}, Reece {$41.49; -15; -0.36%}, Fletcher Building {$7.51; -83; -9.95%}, Nuplex

Industries {$5.25; 0; 0.00%}, Brickworks {$13.77; -6; -0.43%}

VEHICLES

AP Eagers {$9.11; -23; -2.46%}, Automotive Group {$4.03; -1; -0.25%}, ARB Corp {$14.67; -27; -1.81%},

McMillan Shakespeare {$12.81; 0; 0.00%}, Smartgroup {$6.50; -12; -1.81%}, SG Fleet {$3.29; -4; -1.20%},

Eclipx {$3.90; 5; 1.30%}

BUSINESS SERVICES

Aconex {$3.71; 5; 1.37%}, MYOB {$3.62; -1; -0.28%}, McMillan Shakespeare {$12.81; 0; 0.00%}, SG Fleet

{$3.29; -4; -1.20%}, Spotless Group {$0.73; 0; 0.00%}, Broadspectrum {$1.49; 0; 0.00%}

FOOD & BEVERAGES

Coke-Cola Amatil {$10.29; 1; 0.10%}, Collins Foods {$5.96; -8; -1.32%}, Domino's Pizza {$55.34; -103; -

1.83%}, Fonterra {$5.66; -5; -0.88%}, Graincorp {$8.86; -13; -1.45%}, Select Harvest {$5.65; 7; 1.25%},

Treasury Wines {$12.23; 7; 0.58%}

ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION

ALQ {$6.09; -1; -0.16%}, Boart Longyear {$0.09; -0.1; -1.10%}, CIMIC Group {$36.34; -23; -0.63%}, Downer

EDI {$7.42; -4; -0.54%}, GWA {$2.76; 2; 0.73%}, Lend Lease {$15.48; -11; -0.71%}, Monadelphous {$12.82; -

4; -0.31%}, Programmed Maintenance Services {$1.88; 0.5; 0.27%}, McMillan Shakespeare {$12.81; 0;

0.00%}, NRW Holdings {$0.76; -1.5; -1.95%}, SVW {$10.25; -14; -1.35%}, Broadspectrum {$1.49; 0; 0.00%},

SAI Global {$4.74; 0; 0.00%}, United Group {$3.71; 0; 0.00%}, Worley {$10.40; 1; 0.10%}

REITS

Abacus Property {$3.14; -3; -0.95%}, BWP Trust {$2.78; 0; 0.00%}, Charter Hall Group {$5.42; -5; -0.91%},

Cromwell Property {$0.97; 0; 0.00%}, Charter Hall Retail {$4.22; -2; -0.47%}, Dexus {$9.50; -12; -1.25%},

Vicinity Centres {$2.75; -3; -1.08%}, Goodman Group {$7.66; -9; -1.16%}, GPT {$5.00; -1; -0.20%}, Lend

Lease {$15.48; -11; -0.71%}, IOF {$4.69; -2; -0.42%}, Mirvac {$2.17; 1; 0.46%}, Peet {$1.11; 0; 0.00%}, SCA

Property {$2.19; -3; -1.35%}, Scentre Group {$4.19; -12; -2.78%}, Stockland {$4.51; -3; -0.66%}, Westfield

{$8.57; -9; -1.04%}


STEEL

Arrium {$0.02; 0; 0.00%}, Bluescope {$13.00; -7; -0.54%}, Sims {$12.75; -11; -0.86%}

PAPER & PACKAGING

Amcor {$14.57; 7; 0.48%}, Orora {$2.95; 0; 0.00%}, Pact Group {$6.78; -6; -0.88%}

UTILITIES

AGL {$25.35; -15; -0.59%}, APA Group {$8.77; 1; 0.11%}, AusNet Services {$1.68; 1; 0.60%}, DUET Group

{$2.70; -3; -1.10%}, Origin {$6.61; -5; -0.75%}, Spark Infrastructure {$2.31; -1; -0.43%}

INFRASTRUCTURE

APA {$8.77; 1; 0.11%}, SKI {$2.31; -1; -0.43%}, Transurban {$11.11; -2; -0.18%}

CHEMICALS

Dulux {$6.56; -7; -1.06%}, Incitec Pivot {$3.82; 2; 0.53%}, Orica {$17.76; -26; -1.44%}

IT, SOFTWARE SERVICES

Aconex {$3.71; 5; 1.37%}, Computershare {$13.93; 0; 0.00%}, Isentia {$1.57; -2; -1.26%}, MYOB {$3.62; -1;

-0.28%}, Melbourne IT {$2.18; 2; 0.93%}, SMS {$1.64; 0; 0.00%}, Technology One {$5.02; -2; -0.40%}

AGRICULTURAL

Capilano Honey {$14.63; 1; 0.07%}, Graincorp {$8.86; -13; -1.45%}, Ridley Corp {$1.29; 1; 0.78%}, Tassal

Group {$4.39; -1; -0.23%}, Fonterra {$5.66; -5; -0.88%}, Incitec Pivot {$3.82; 2; 0.53%}, Nufarm {$9.35; 6;

0.65%}, Aust Ag {$1.54; 2.5; 1.65%}, Elders {$4.57; 11; 2.47%}, Webster {$1.45; -3.5; -2.36%}

BABY FORMULA + STOCKS LEVERAGED TO CHINESE CONSUMERS

A2 Milk {$2.46; 3; 1.23%}, Blackmores {$100.50; 181; 1.83%}, Bellamay’s {$3.82; 1; 0.26%}, Bega Cheese

{$6.25; -3; -0.48%}, BWX {$4.60; 5; 1.10%}, Treasury Wines {$12.23; 7; 0.58%}, Traditional Therapy {$0.47;

1.5; 3.30%}, Vitaco {$2.21; 0; 0.00%}

CONSUMER PRODUCTS

AHY {$1.63; 1.5; 0.93%}, ARB {$14.67; -27; -1.81%}, Coke-Cola Amatil {$10.29; 1; 0.10%}, GUD {$11.19; -18;

-1.58%}, PFL {$1.43; 0; 0.00%}, Treasury Wines {$12.23; 7; 0.58%}


DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS

ASX {$49.95; -65; -1.28%}, Challenger {$12.23; 11; 0.91%}, Computershare {$13.93; 0; 0.00%}, Flexigroup

{$2.33; -2; -0.85%}, Hendersons {$3.72; -5; -1.33%}, IRESS {$11.43; -18; -1.55%}, IOOF {$8.27; -6; -0.72%},

Macquarie Bank {$88.57; -33; -0.37%}, Perpetual {$52.09; -39; -0.74%}

RESOURCES

RESOURCES

IRON ORE COMPANIES: BHP {$24.88; 4; 0.16%}, S32 {$2.78; -2; -0.71%}, RIO {$62.39; -54; -0.86%}, Mt

Gibson {$0.44; -2.5; -5.43%}, Fortescue {$6.70; 0; 0.00%}, Atlas Iron {$0.03; -0.3; -8.82%}

OTHERS: Alumina {$1.83; -1.5; -0.82%}, Iluka {$7.10; 13; 1.87%}, OZ Minerals {$8.43; -4; -0.47%}, ERA

{$0.72; -1; -1.37%}, Aquarius Platinum {$0.25; 0; 0.00%}, Aditya Birla {$0.43; 0; 0.00%}, Sandfire Resources

{$6.72; -12; -1.75%}, Independence Group {$3.78; 2; 0.53%}, Western Areas {$2.44; 4; 1.67%}, Base

Resources {$0.30; 1; 3.45%}, Lynas {$0.09; 0.1; 1.12%}, Mineral Deposits {$0.43; 0.5; 1.19%}, Alkane

{$0.27; 0.5; 1.92%}

ENERGY STOCKS

Caltex {$28.40; 9; 0.32%}, Origin {$6.61; -5; -0.75%}, Oil Search {$6.92; 2; 0.29%}, Santos {$3.69; -4; -

1.07%}, Worley Parsons {$10.40; 1; 0.10%}, Woodside {$31.37; -17; -0.54%}, AWE {$0.50; 1; 2.04%}, Beach

Energy {$0.75; 0; 0.00%}, New Hope Corp {$1.75; -2.5; -1.41%}, Senex Energy {$0.34; 0; 0.00%},

Whitehaven Coal {$2.80; 4; 1.45%}

MINING SERVICES

Bradken {$3.24; -1; -0.31%}, Monadelphous {$12.82; -4; -0.31%}, United Group {$3.71; 0; 0.00%}, Orica

{$17.76; -26; -1.44%}, Downer {$7.42; -4; -0.54%}, Worley {$10.40; 1; 0.10%}, Imdex {$0.68; 2; 3.05%}, Seven

Group Holdings {$10.25; -14; -1.35%}, Emeco {$0.08; 0.3; 4.17%}, Sedgman {$0.95; 0; 0.00%}, Ausenco

{$0.40; 0; 0.00%}, Matrix Composites & Engineering {$0.48; -3; -5.88%}, NRW Holdings {$0.76; -1.5; -1.95%}

COAL STOCKS

Whitehaven Coal {2.80; 4; 1.45%}, Terracoml {$0.03; 0; 0.00}

GOLD

Newcrest {$22.16; -4; -0.18%}, Kingsgate {$0.27; 0; 0.00%}, St Barbara {$2.48; -5; -1.98%}, Resolute {$1.43;

-1; -0.69%}, Alacer {$2.71; -6; -2.17%}, Evolution Mining {$2.18; -7; -3.11%}, Northern Star {$4.17; -1; -

0.24%}, Teranga Gold {$0.83; -5; -5.68%}, Regis Resources {$3.27; 1; 0.31%}, Perseus {$0.34; -1.5; -4.23%},

OceanaGold {$3.98; -2; -0.50%}, Medusa Mining {$0.38; 1; 2.70%}


URANIUM STOCKS

ERA {$0.72; -1; -1.37%}, Paladin {$0.11; 0; 0.00%}, Deep Yellow {$0.32; 2; 6.67%}, Leigh Creek Energy

{$0.20; 1; 5.26%}

LITHIUM / GRAPHITE STOCKS

Galaxy {$0.52; -1; -1.89%}, Orocobre {$2.88; -2; -0.69%}, Pilbara Minerals {$0.48; -2.5; -5.00%}, Magnis

{$0.55; -3.5; -6.03%}, Syrah {$2.69; 16; 6.32%}

TOP 20 STOCK MOVES TODAY


ASX 200 MOVERS TODAY


HIGHS & LOWS TODAY HIGHS

All Time Highs NHF

2 Year Highs CWP

LOWS

All Time Lows SPO, PWH

6 Year Lows SKT

2 Year Lows RCG, CZZ

SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDER CHANGES

BIGGEST BLOCKS THROUGH MARKET TODAY


MOST SHORTED STOCKS – MOVES IN LAST 5 DAYS


BELL POTTER RESEARCH

Adacel Technologies (ADA) Buy, TP$3.25 – Chris Savage

Worth a fresh look

Share price fall appears overdone.The Adacel share price has fallen by >30% over the past several months

and the key driver of this fall appears to have been a relatively weak 1HFY17 result which was driven by a fall in

Systems sales relative to the pcp. The outlook now, however, is for a rebound in Systems sales and a relatively

strong 2HFY17 result which, according to the company’s guidance, will help drive growth in pre-tax profit of 10%

or more for the full year. The large fall in the share price does not, therefore, seem consistent with the year-on-

year double digit profit growth the company expects to achieve in FY17 though we do recognise that the volatility

in Systems sales is of some concern. But we also highlight that Systems sales are now only between 35-40% of

total sales and the remaining 60-65% is Services revenue which is recurring and is expected to grow.

Looks attractive on FY17 PE ratio of c.18x.The fall in the share price has reduced the FY17 PE ratio from

c.25x to c.18x based on our forecasts which are modestly ahead of the guidance. In our view this is an attractive

PE ratio for a global software company with a leading market position and a relatively high level of recurring

revenue. We also note there are some potential catalysts over the next few months including contract wins (e.g.

French Territories and US Navy) and a reiteration of the guidance. Note we do not believe the French Territories

and/or US Navy contracts are necessary to achieve the guidance though winning one or both would make it

easier to achieve and potentially exceed.

Investment view: Maintain BUY, PT $3.25.We maintain our BUY recommendation and $3.25 price target on

Adacel. There is no change in our earnings forecasts and, as mentioned, our FY17 forecasts are modestly

ahead of the guidance (we forecast 15% growth in pre-tax profit versus the guidance of >10% growth). With no

change in our forecasts there is no change in our price target which we only updated a few weeks ago at the

release of the 1HFY17 result. Our PT is a 43% premium to the current share price which well supports a BUY.

Pantoro Limited (PNR) Buy (Speculative), Valuation$0.29ps – David Coates

Depth extensions point to mine life extensions

First phase drilling hits the spot

PNR has reported the results of the first phase of broad spaced reconnaissance drilling below the Rowdies and

Wagtail open pits at its Halls Creek Project in the Kimberley region of WA. The pits are currently being mined to

a depth of 65m and are located just 1.5km south of the Nicolsons processing plant. The 7-hole drill program was

designed to test for depth extensions along ~800m of the known strike length of the deposits and all holes

returned mineralised intersections. Of these around half returned underground mineable grades and widths,

some with multiple intersections. We view this as an excellent first pass result. Significant intersections include:

3.6m @ 7.67g/t Au from 133m, 2.6m @ 6.46g/t Au from 138m, 1.2m @ 5.11g/t Au from 127m, 1.4m @ 7.18g/t

Au from 146m and 3.4m @ 4.36g/t Au from 169m.

Results demonstrate prospectivity and Resource upside

These first pass drilling results are a success on a number of fronts. Firstly, they strengthen the potential for the

open-pit Reserves to more than double in depth extent, with these latest intersections at 110-150m below

https://www.bellpotter.com.au/onlineresearch/fileGet.aspx?guid=C90ADB45-5F9D-46B4-BA5F-40B125FBDB38

https://www.bellpotter.com.au/onlineresearch/fileGet.aspx?guid=0016FB3E-4786-4EFD-A355-99BC3312928F


surface. Second, the intersections are comparable in grade to initial drilling results from the Nicolsons

underground mine, just 1.5km to the north. Thirdly, the results help validate the geological model which

interprets the Archer Fault as the key structural control and demonstrate its prospectivity. Finally it shows

mineralisation remains open at depth and along strike.

Investment thesis – Buy (Spec.), Valuation $0.29 (unch.)

Our investment thesis for PNR remains predicated on a strong management team, demonstrated capital

efficiency and a strong growth outlook for both production and mine life. These latest exploration results point to

high potential for Resource and Reserve expansion and thus mine life extensions. At this stage we do not make

any changes to our operating assumptions but we increase our exploration valuation. While there are no

changes to earnings and our overall NPV-based valuation of $0.29/sh, we take the opportunity to reiterate our

Buy (Speculative) recommendation.

Macro

Fixed Interest Weekly – Damien Williamson, Barry Ziegler

Protection from rate increases with floating rate hybrids

The US Fed increasing interest rates for the second time in three months highlights a return a more normal

upward sloping yield curve. Despite the latest increase, the US Federal Funds Rate remains historically low at a

range of 0.75-1.00%. Expectations remain for a further two 0.25% rate increases over 2017.

With an increase in the Official Cash Rate being the next likely movement by the Reserve Bank of Australia,

greater capital price protection is provided by floating rates securities that dominate issuance in the ASX listed

debt and hybrid market.

An uplift in interest rates generally results in a decline in capital prices of fixed rate bonds. This has been evident

over the past 6 months, with yields on global Government bonds seeing a material increase off their historic

lows. This increase has essentially resulted in a normalisation of global bond yields to levels prevailing at the

end of 2015.

Weekly trading idea: Buy NABPE on listing

With the new NAB Subordinated Notes 2 (NABPE) breaking the 3.5 year drought of ASX listed subordinated

debt issuance, we expect to see support for this security from the pending pipeline of $6.7bn of debt

redemptions between Mar - Sep 2017. The listing on Tuesday 21 March falls one day before the scheduled

redemption of the $250m TAHHB (22 March) and 10 days before scheduled redemption of CNGHA (31 March),

in which we expect ~$400m will be returned to investors.

While it is common to see subdued trading of hybrids for the first 1-2 weeks post listing, we view any initial

selling pressure will be short lived, with redemption funds looking for a new home.

As a floating rate security paying income at a margin of 2.20% above 3 month bank bill, the quarterly income

reset on NABPE provides protection against future rate rises.

Bell Potter Coverage & Valuations – Tim Piper

Daily Coverage & Valuations

https://www.bellpotter.com.au/onlineresearch/fileGet.aspx?guid=C36543EA-5886-4E01-BA0C-8665BD8A6338

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The information in The Coppo Report is of a general nature only and has been prepared without taking into

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regard to your own relevant circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. We cannot

guarantee the performance or return on investments and those acting on this information do so at their own risk.

This report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security and we are not soliciting any action based on

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We believe this information is correct at the time of its compilation however no warranty is made as to its

accuracy, reliability or completeness. Bell Potter has no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this

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