Major Demographic Trends Transforming MN & The …...County highlights: Population change between 2010 and 2014 Minnesota has 87 counties ranging in size from 3,400 residents (Traverse)

+

Major Demographic Trends Transforming MN

& The Minnetonka Area

Presentation to the Minnetonka Family

Collaborative

Andi Egbert, Assistant Director,

MN State Demographic Center

January 29, 2015 | Minnetonka, MN

Website: mn.gov/demography | Twitter: @MN_StateData

+ What is the role of the

MN State Demographic Center?

Serve as a liaison to the Census Bureau and assist with the decennial census counts

Create MN population estimates and projections

Analyze, interpret and distribute data from the state, U.S. Census Bureau and other sources

Offer data and technical assistance to legislators, all levels of government, organizations and citizens across the state

Monitor trends and help MN to make data-informed decisions

+

Major trends shaping Minnesota

& Minnetonka Public Schools

4 Population Shifts

Poverty/Hardship

Aging Trends

Diversity & Migration

Population Shifts

+ The long, historic view…

population change since 1960

Douglas County in the

second growth tier –

faring better than most

of Greater Minnesota

+ QUIZ QUESTION

Where do 1 in 5 of Minnesota’s residents live?

A. The 7-county Twin Cities metro

B. Otter Tail County C. Hennepin County

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census.

+ Counties are not comparable units

for measurement!

5 largest MN counties in 2014:

1. Hennepin (1.2M residents, 22% of state)

2. Ramsey (530K, 10% of state)

3. Dakota (412K, 8% of state)

4. Anoka (343K, 6% of state)

5. Washington (249K, 5% of state)

Everywhere else (2.7M, 50% of state)

-Wright County (nearly 130,000, or 2.4% of state, 10th largest)

+ County highlights: Population

change between 2010 and 2014

Minnesota has 87 counties ranging in size from 3,400 residents (Traverse) to 1.2 million residents (Hennepin).

There are 19 counties with more than 50,000 residents and 10 counties with populations exceeding 100,000.

There are 19 counties with fewer than 10,000 residents and 4 counties with fewer than 5,000 residents.

Hennepin and Ramsey counties led all counties with population increases of about 58,000 and 21,000, respectively

16 counties added 1,000+ residents.

46 counties have lost population since 2010.

+

Focus on

the 7-

county

metro

2014 population (red=greatest)

+

Focus on

the 7-

county

metro

Population change, 2010-2014

(darkest green=greatest)

+ Top 10 cities that added the most

people since 2010

+ MPS district area communities’

changes since 2010 (rounded)

Pop Chg. Since

2010 HH Chg. Since 2010 2014 Population 2014 Households

Persons Per Household

Chanhassen 1,550 580 24,500 8,900 2.7

Deephaven 150 30 3,800 1,400 2.8

Eden Prairie 1,800 680 62,600 24,600 2.5

Excelsior 90 30 2,300 1,100 2.0

Greenwood 1 4 700 300 2.3

Hopkins 1,380 450 18,970 8,820 2.1

Minnetonka 1,410 580 51,100 22,500 2.3

Shorewood 120 40 7,400 2,700 2.8

Tonka Bay 10 20 1,500 600 2.5

Victoria 1,120 340 8,460 2,770 3.0

Woodland 40 20 480 180 2.6

Source: MN State Demographic Center. See our Estimates page: mn.gov/demography/estimates

+ Our county-level population

projections through 2045

Douglas County expected

to grow very modesty

until 2025, then hold

relatively steady in

population

Find the outlook for

your county at

mn.gov/demography/

projections

+ Enrollment gains each year since

2011 in Minnetonka district

Students of Color now represent 13% of students (school year ending 2015)

About 1/4th of students are open-enrolled from out of district 1,338

1,221

1,106

998

922

8,615

8,518

8,461

8,113

7,779

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Sc

ho

ol Y

ea

r E

nd

ing

in

Students of Color

White Students

+ Diversity in Minnetonka Public

School District (latest data)

White: 87%

Asian: 7%

Hispanic: 3%

Black: 3%

American

Indian: 1%

Minnesota Report Card, MN Department of Education: http://rc.education.state.mn.us/#mySchool/orgId--10276000000__groupType--district__p--1

http://rc.education.state.mn.us/#mySchool/orgId--10276000000__groupType--district__p--1








+ Poverty in Minnetonka

Public Schools area

+ Free & Reduced Lunch enrollment

is often used as a proxy for poverty

Families receiving MFIP or SNAP, or containing

a foster child, are automatically eligible

Free lunch income eligibility guideline =

Below 130% of official poverty

Reduced lunch income eligibility guideline =

131-185% of official poverty

No “asset” test – only income-based eligibility

+ Income-eligible families for FRL in

2015-2016 school year

Household size Gross annual

earnings below

2 $29, 471

3 $37,167

4 $44,863

5 $52,559

Sources: MN Department of Education.

+ Free and reduced lunch enrolled

by grade, 2014-15, MPS

Source: MN Department of Education.

47

52

50

40

44

42

56

41

33

32

34

29

36

12

11

20

14

7

14

19

10

16

15

11

16

11

K

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Free

Reduced

+

Every

public

district in

the state

Percent enrolled in free or reduced

lunch, 2014-2015, Minnesota

Minnetonka (7%) and Orono (7%)

are the two non-charter districts with

the lowest percentage of students

enrolled in Free or Reduced Lunch

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%MATH AND SCIENCE ACADEMY

PERPICH CENTER FOR ARTS EDUCATION

MINNETONKA PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

ST. CROIX PRE PARATORY ACADEM Y

TWI N CITIE S G ERMAN IM MERSION CH TR

SWAN RIVER MONTESSORI CH ARTER SCH

VALLEY CROSSING COMM UNITY SCHOOL

GREAT RIVER SCHOOL

WACONIA PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

MINNESOTA ONLINE HIGH SCHOOL

WAYZATA PUBLI C SCHOOL DISTRICT

ASPEN ACAD EMY

NATURAL SCIENCE ACADEMY

ART AND SCIENCE ACADEMY

LIONSG ATE ACADEMY

PACT CHARTER SCH OOL

UPPER M ISSISSIPPI ACADEMY

HAWLEY PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

SARTELL-ST. STEPHEN SCHOOL D ISTRICT

BYRON PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRI CT

PAIDEI A ACADE MY CHARTER SCH OOL

STILLWATER AREA PUBLIC SCH OOL DIST.

ST PAUL CONSERVATORY PERFORMING ART

SPECTRUM HIGH SCHOOL

FARMINGTON PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRI CT

EAGLE RIDG E ACADEMY CH ARTER SCHOOL

BECKE R PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

BARNESVILLE PUBLIC SCH OOL DIST.

ELK RIVER PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

KALEIDOSCOPE CHARTER SCH OOL

WE STONKA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

SOUTH WASHINGTON COUNTY SCHOOL DIST

SEVEN HILLS PREPARATORY ACADEMY

ST. CLAIR PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

WATERTOWN-MAYER PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST.

MAPLE LAKE PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

HASTING S PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

ST. ANTHONY-NEW BRIGHTON SCHOOLS

CH ISAG O LAKES SCHOOL D ISTRICT

CANNON FALLS PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

RIDGEWAY COMMUNITY SCHOOL

AVALON SCHOOL

TRIO WOLF CREEK DISTANCE LEARNING

STEWARTVILLE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

ANNANDALE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

ROSEAU PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

ROCORI PUBLIC SCHOOL D ISTRICT

HOLDINGFORD PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

ROCKFORD PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

MAIN STREET SCHOOL PERFORM ING ARTS

BIG LAKE PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

HUTCHINSON PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

CALEDONIA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

KITT SON CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICT

JANESVILLE-WALDORF-PEMBERTON

NORTH FIELD PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

WH ITE BEAR LAKE SCHOOL DISTRICT

NEW LONDON-SPICER SCHOOL DISTRICT

NEW ULM PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

PEQUOT LAKE S PUBLIC SCHOOLS

RTR PUBLIC SCH OOLS

HOUSTON PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

WABASSO PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

NORTH BRANCH PUBLIC SCHOOLS

ST. FRANCIS PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

MILROY AREA CH ARTER SCHOOL

SPRING G ROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

RUSH CITY PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

CANNON RIVER ST EM SCHOOL

MOUNDS VIEW PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

KENYON-WANAMING O SCHOOL DISTRI CT

PARKERS PRAIRIE PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST.

IVANHOE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

EAST GRAND FORKS PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST

MURRAY COUNTY CENTRAL SCHOOL DIST.

LESTE R PRAIRIE PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST.

ANOKA-H ENNE PIN PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST.

FERG US FALLS PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

SHAKOPEE PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

LAKEVI EW SCHOOL DISTRI CT

MINNESOTA NEW COUNTRY SCH OOL

WABASH A-KELLOGG PUBLIC SCHOOL DI ST.

RED LAKE FALLS PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST.

NORTH SH ORE COMMUNITY SCHOOL

BLUESKY CHARTER SCH OOL

PAYNESVILLE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

BATTLE LAKE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

CANBY PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

CAMBRIDGE-ISANTI PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST

MOOSE LAKE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

SAUK CENTRE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

ST. LOUIS PARK PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST.

GRAND MEADOW PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

NORTH WEST PASSAGE HIGH SCHOOL

BARNUM PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

FULDA PUBLIC SCHOOL D ISTRICT

MANKATO PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

WI NONA AREA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

AFSA HI GH SCHOOL

LITCHFIELD PUBLI C SCHOOL DISTRICT

BLOOMING PRAI RIE PUBLIC SCH OOL DIST

HOPKINS PUBLIC SCHOOL D ISTRICT

MAPLE RIVER SCHOOL D IST RICT

INT ERNATIONAL FALLS SCHOOL DISTRI CT

FILLMORE CENTRAL

RED WING PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

WRIGH T TE CHNICAL CENTER

ALDE N-CONGER PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

EDEN VALLEY-WATKINS SCHOOL D IST RICT

ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

LE SUEUR-HENDERSON SCH OOL DISTRICT

MOORHEAD PUBLI C SCHOOL DISTRICT

INVER GROVE HEIGHT S SCHOOLS

SPRING LAKE PARK PUBLI C SCHOOLS

VIRG INIA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRI CT

LAKE AG ASSIZ SPECIAL ED. COOP.

MONTEVIDEO PUBLIC SCHOOL D ISTRICT

TRITON SCHOOL DI STRICT

GRAND RAPIDS PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

WARROAD PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

WE ST ST. PAUL-MENDOTA HTS.-EAGAN

LAKE PARK AUDUBON SCHOOL DI STRICT

INT ERMEDI ATE SCHOOL DISTRICT 9 17

EVELET H-G ILBERT SCH OOL DISTRICT

BRAINERD PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

MORA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRI CT

LANESBORO PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

MELROSE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

ROTHSAY PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRI CT

RED ROCK CENTRAL SCH OOL DISTRICT

HARBOR CITY INTERNATIONAL CHARTER

FRASER ACADEMY

SIBLEY EAST SCHOOL DISTRICT

OSSEO PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

LAC QUI PARLE VALLEY SCHOOL DIST.

WI LLOW RIVER PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

TRUMAN PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

GRANADA HUNTLEY-EAST CHAIN

SWANVILLE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

MESABI EAST SCH OOL DISTRICT

PINE CITY PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

HENNING PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

MILACA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

CH ISHOLM PUBLI C SCHOOL DISTRICT

WASECA PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

CROMWELL-WRIGHT PUBLIC SCH OOLS

TWI N CITIE S ACAD EMY HIGH SCHOOL

WI NDOM PUBLIC SCHOOL D ISTRICT

WE ST CONCORD PUBLIC CHARTER SCHOOL

BLUE EARTH AREA PUBLIC SCH OOL

BRAHAM PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

SOUTHWEST METRO ED UCATIONAL COOP

EDGE RTON PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRI CT

LAURA JEFFREY ACADEMY CHARTER

BIRD ISLAND-OLI VIA-LAKE LILLIAN

UNITED SOUTH CENTRAL SCHOOL DI ST.

SOUTH ST. PAUL PUBLIC SCHOOL D IST .

GOODH UE COUNTY EDUCATION DISTRICT

BURNSVILLE PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

GRYGLA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

FRAZEE-VERGAS PUBLIC SCH OOL DIST.

REGION 4-LAKES COUNTRY SERVICE COOP

MINNESOTA TRANSITIONS CHARTER SCH

CROSBY-I RONTON PUBLI C SCHOOL DIST.

ELLSWORTH PUBLIC SCHOOL D ISTRICT

UNDERWOOD PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRI CT

VERMI LION COUNTRY SCH OOL

BEMIDJI PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

OAK LAND VOCATIONAL COOPERATVE

WRENSHALL PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

MENAH GA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

SEBE KA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

PARK RAPIDS PUBLIC SCHOOL D IST RICT

MADELIA PUBLIC SCHOOL D IST RICT

WADENA-DEE R CREEK SCHOOL DISTRICT

NORTH ST PAUL-MAPLEWOOD OAKDALE DIS

BUTTERFI ELD PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

ALBERT LEA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

ISLE PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

WALKER-HACKENSACK-AKELEY SCHL. DIST

PELICAN RAPIDS PUBLIC SCH OOL DIST.

NASHWAUK-KEEWAT IN SCHOOL DISTRICT

BROWERVILLE PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

NEVIS PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

BERTHA-HEWITT PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST.

ATHLOS LEADERSHIP ACAD EMY

ST. JAME S PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

MN RIVER VALLEY EDUCATION D ISTRICT

STAPLES-MOTLEY SCH OOL DISTRICT

EAGLE VALLEY PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

ACADEMI C ARTS HIG H SCHOOL

GLACIAL H ILLS ELEMENTARY

CLARKFIELD CHARTER SCHOOL

EAST CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICT

RUNESTONE ARE A ED. D ISTRICT

AUSTIN PUBLIC SCHOOL DI STRICT

HINCKLEY-FI NLAYSON SCHOOL DISTRICT

CORNERSTONE MONTESSORI ELEMENTARY

CI TY ACADEMY

VERNDALE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

LONG PRAIRIE-GREY EAGLE SCHOOL DIST

REGN 6 AND 8 -SW/WC SRV COOPERATIVE

NEW CENTURY ACADEMY

NEW HEIGH TS SCHOOL, INC.

INT ERMEDI ATE SCHOOL DISTRICT 2 87

FRID LEY PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

PINE RIVER-BACKUS SCHOOL DI STRICT

RIVERS EDGE ACADEM Y

RIVER BEND EDUCATION DISTRICT

RUM RI VER SPECIAL EDUCATION COOP

SAGE ACADEMY CHARTER SCHOOL

LYND PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

STAR OF TH E NORTH ACADEM Y CHARTER S

DEER RIVER PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

WAUBUN-OGEMA-WHITE E ARTH PUBLIC SCH

LAPORTE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

DISCOVERY PUBLIC SCHOOL FARI BAULT

JENNINGS COMMUNITY LEARNING CENTER

SOUTHERN PLAI NS EDUCATI ON COOP.

ST. PAUL PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

TEAM ACADEMY

BROOKLYN CENTER SCHOOL DISTRICT

PILLAGE R AREA CHARTER SCHOOL

RIVERWAY LEARNI NG COMMUNITY CH TR

PRAIRIE SEEDS ACADE MY

MAHNOMEN PUBLIC SCHOOL D ISTRICT

NET T LAKE PUBLIC SCH OOL DISTRICT

VOYAGEURS EXPEDITIONARY

NORTH ERN LIGH TS COMM UNITY SCHOOL

HOPE COMMUNITY ACADEMY

EAST RANG E ACADEMY OF TECH-SCIENCE

METRO SCH OOLS CH ARTER

KELLI HER PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

RED LAKE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT

MINNEAPOLIS COLLEGE PREPARATORY

LEARNING FOR LEADERSHIP CHARTER

AUGSBURG FAI RVIEW ACAD EMY

LOVEWORKS ACAD EMY FOR ARTS

VENTURE ACADEM Y

DUG SI ACADEMY

GLOBAL ACADEMY

FACE TO FACE ACADEMY

BEST ACADEMY

WE ST SIDE SUM MIT CHARTER SCHOOL

MASTERY SCHOOL

MINNESOTA MATH AND SCIENCE ACADEMY

AURORA CHARTER SCH OOL

HIAWATH A ACAD EMIES

ROCHESTER STEM ACADEM Y

EXCELL ACADEMY CHARTER

HENNEPI N ELEM ENTARY SCHOOL

HIG HER G ROUND ACAD EMY

TWI N CITIE S INTERNATIONAL ELEM SCH

URBAN ACADEMY CH ARTER SCHOOL

WOOD SON INSTI TUTE FOR EXCELLENCE CH

STEP ACADEM Y CHARTER SCH OOL

ST. PAUL CITY SCH OOL

PARTNERSHIP ACADEMY , I NC.

UBAH MEDICAL ACADEMY CHARTER SCHOOL

LINCOLN INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL

Source: MN Department of Education.

+ Free and reduced enrollment in

nearby districts, 2014-15

SELECT NEARBY DISTRICTS FRL students FRL % of total

ST. PAUL PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 26,906 73%

RICHFIELD PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 2,853 66%

MINNEAPOLIS PUBLIC SCHOOL DIST. 22,721 64%

INVER GROVE HEIGHTS SCHOOLS 1,486 39%

HOPKINS PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 2,545 37%

ROSEMOUNT-APPLE VALLEY-EAGAN 6,311 23%

EDEN PRAIRIE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 1,872 21%

WAYZATA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 1,324 12%

EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 690 8%

MINNETONKA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 712 7% Source: MN Department of Education.

+ Understanding official poverty

(<100% poverty)

Official poverty guidelines for 2013:

2 parents, 2 children = $23,624

1 parent, 2 children = $18,769

Link to all poverty thresholds by family composition: https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/threshld/

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 American Community Survey.

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/threshld/

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/threshld/

+ Poverty rates of 5- to 17-year-olds

by school district boundaries, 2014

Minnetonka: 3.8%

St. Louis Park: 11.5%

Hopkins: 10.3%

Edina: 3.6%

Eden Prairie: 7.3%

Eastern Carver Co.: 4.9%

Westonka: 6.5%

Orono: 5.2%

Wayzata: 5.8%

Minneapolis: 29.0%

About 8,800 kids; about 330 in “official” poverty

in MPS boundaries

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates (SAIPE): http://www.census.gov/did/www/saipe/data/index.html

+ School-Age Poverty Trend, 1999-

2014 for MPS, MN and US

Poverty peaked at 5.9% in 2010 in MPS

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates (SAIPE): http://www.census.gov/did/www/saipe/data/index.html

+ Child poverty across Minnesota

Even deep

into

economic

recovery,

child poverty

all too

common in

MN

+ Aging trends

+ QUIZ QUESTION:

Which places are the “oldest”? The median age of Minnesota is 37.

The median age of _________ is 39. The median age of _________ is 45. The median age of _________ is 33. The median age of _________ is 38. The median age of _________ is 43. The median age of _________ is 45. The median age of _________ is 46. The median age of _________ is 50.. The median age of _________ is 37.. The median age of _________ is 52..

Chanhassen

Eden Prairie

Deephaven

Excelsior

Shorewood

Minnetonka

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 -2014 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates

Tonka Bay

Hopkins

Victoria

Woodland

+

9,284

11,085

12,488

10,189

7,190

19,018

20,593

27,723

13,454

10,133

10,971

8,653

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 34 years

35 to 44 years

45 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 74 years

75+

Age distribution of 10 communities

associated with MPS

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey.

Note: Sums the entire populations

by age in the following 10

communities: Chanhassen,

Deephaven, Eden Prairie,

Excelsior, Greenwood,

Minnetonka, Shorewood, Tonka

Bay, Victoria & Woodland. Does

not remove populations outside

the district boundaries.

+ The nation in 1900

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95



5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95



5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95



Younger Boomers

Generation X

Millennials

Silent Generation

Older Baby Boomers

G.I. / Greatest Generation

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95


Digitals

+ What Minnesota looks like…

this year

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center

250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2015

Female

Male

65 years

+ What the Twin Cities 7-county

metro looks like… this year


150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Under 5 5 to 9

10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84

85+

Population by age and sex 7-county Twin Cities metro, 2015

Female

Male

+

150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Under 5 5 to 9


85+


Female

Male

What the Twin Cities 7-county

metro will look like… in 10 years


+

150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Under 5 5 to 9


85+


Female

Male




+

150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Under 5 5 to 9


85+


Female

Male




+ How many additional “older adults”

will we gain during this decade?

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center

85 55

71 67 47

91

- - - - -

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)

+ This decade and next: Unprecedented

increases in MN’s 65+ population

85 55

71 67 47

91

285

335

97 66 56

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

+ QUIZ QUESTION:

What event is predicted to happen in 2020 that has never before happened in the history of our state?

A. The Vikings will win the Super Bowl B. MN will have more immigrants than

U.S.-born residents C. MN will have more 65+ residents

than school-age children, 5-17

+ For the first time in MN history:

More 65+ than school-age by 2020

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

60

65+

5-17

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections

+ By 2030, more than 1 in 5 Minnesotans

will be 65+, including all Baby Boomers

13%

21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

% age 85+

% age 75-84

% age 65-74

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections

+ An “older Minnesota” is here to

stay, not a near-term challenge

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

20

27

20

29

20

31

20

33

20

35

20

37

20

39

20

41

20

43

20

45

20

47

20

49

20

51

20

53

20

55

20

57

20

59

20

61

20

63

20

65

65+

85+

Sources: Minnesota's total population, age and sex projections from 2015-2070, Minnesota State Demographic Center, August 2015. http://mn.gov/demography/projections

+ Aging:

Assets of our older population

Minnesota’s older adults are healthier, living

longer, and working longer than prior generations

Life expectancy for Minnesotans age 65 now is 20.1 more

years (15.6 years in good health)

Minnesota’s Boomers and

older adults volunteer in

record numbers, strengthening

our communities in countless ways

Opportunities to mentor in

business and educational settings

Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013. Current Population Survey, Volunteering Supplement.

+ Challenges related to our aging

population

Will we have or create sufficient infrastructure for more transportation, caregiving, health care, and social support needs, as health challenges and disabilities increase, especially when children live far away?

Will we be able to finance needed services, especially long-term care? Private and public medical expenses will increase considerably.

Will we have the workers to form a strong, skilled, highly productive labor force as the Boomers retire — for economic growth, tax revenues for needed services, and maintaining a high quality of life in MN?

Workforce

Considerations

+ Change in MN age groups

between 2015 and 2030 (percent)

13%

6%

-4%

49%

0-17

18-24

25-64

65+

+ Change in MN age groups

between 2015 and 2030 (people)

167,000

31,000

-103,000

389,000

0-17

18-24

25-64

65+

+ Total 25- to 64-year-olds in MN will

dip by about 100,000 individuals

2

0

1

7

2

0

4

0

Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections

+ Ratio of jobs to job seekers is now

nearly 1:1

Source: Job Vacancy Survey, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development. http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/job-vacancy/findings-jvs.jsp

+ Projected job growth and

projected labor force growth

Jobs

Workers

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

2,800,000

3,000,000

3,200,000

Source: DEED Employment Outlook and Minnesota State Demographic Center Labor force projections

+ Opportunities to impact labor

force’s quality and size

Grow your own (train, retrain, and retain your own)

Attract new workers (domestic, int’l migration)

Better alignment of preparation (& retooling)

Pull (or keep) additional folks in the labor force: Older workers

People with disabilities

Parents, especially mothers

Discouraged workers

People with less education/skills that align poorly with available jobs

Migration & Diversity

See our “Minnesota on the Move” special report on migration –

http://mn.gov/admin/images/mn-on-the-move-migration-report-msdc-

jan2015.pdf

http://mn.gov/admin/images/mn-on-the-move-migration-report-msdc-jan2015.pdf
















+ Populations of Color now total

1 million in MN, 19% of the population

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

14

Populations of color in Minnesota

Black/Af. American

American Indian

Asian

Two or more

races/Other race

Hispanic/Latino

+ Populations of Color are driving

growth in MN & US (shown since 2010)

Source: MNCompass.org presentation of data from U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2014 Population Estimates

+120,000, or 13.4%

+33,000, or 0.8%

+ 2000-2010: Populations of Color led

growth in state

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 decennial census. Vizualized by MN State Demographic Center. Online at http://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/viz-co-pop-race-ethnicity-change-2000-2010.jsp

White, non-Hispanic population: Growth in only 37 of 87 counties

statewide (2000-2010)

+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 decennial census. Vizualized by MN State Demographic Center. Online at http://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/viz-co-pop-race-ethnicity-change-2000-2010.jsp

Populations of Color (non-White): Growth in all but 2 counties statewide

(2000-2010)

+ MN today by race/ethnicity (Hispanics

removed from all other race groups)

82% White

6% Black

5% Hispanic

5% Asian

2% Multiracial

1% American Indian

Source: U.S. Census via mncompass.org

+

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+

White (non-

Hispanic)

Of Color

Minnesota’s population by

age and race groups

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 population estimates

+ An increasing share of Minnesota’s

babies are children of Color

+ By late 1800s, German, Norwegian and

Swedish immigrants began to arrive in

MN in great numbers

Foreign-born by country of birth, MN, 1870-2011

Source: MNCompass tabulations of IPUMS version of U.S. Census Bureau decennial censuses and 2009-2011 American Community Survey

19

00

20

00

+

69,100

25,700

23,900

19,900

15,700

15,300

13,600

13,200

12,600

11,900

10,800

7,400

6,400

6,300

6,100

6,000

Mexico

Laos

India

Somalia

Vietnam

Thailand

Korea

China

Liberia

Ethiopia

Canada

El Salvador

Kenya

Philippines

Germany

Ecuador

MN foreign-born population: Largest

groups by country of birth, 2009-2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

2009-2011 American Community Survey

*

* Hmong represented

*

+ Percent of MN young people who

are “children of immigrants”

Under age 20, it’s 1 in 6

Under age 5, it’s 1 in 5

“Children of immigrants” are

foreign-born themselves, or have

one or two foreign-born parents Source: mncompass.org

+ Immigrant presence reflected in

home languages in MPS

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014; Minnesota Department of Education

144

100

65

26

19

18

17

16

14

14

13

13

12

Spanish

Chinese, Mandarin

Russian

Somali

Arabic

Bosnian

Bengali

Korean

Dutch

Farsi

French

Khmer, Cambodian

Vietnamese

Students by Primary Home Language,

Minnetonka Public Schools, 2014-2015

+

+ Domestic net migration, by state,

since 2010 census

+ Total net migration, by state, since

2010 census

+ Net migration will become the

major driver of our state’s growth

Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.

Net migration

Natural change

(births-deaths)

+ Minnesotans not as fond of making

babies as they were in the past

All data in the report refer to the annual average during years 2010 to 2014. Report is available off our homepage at mn.gov/demography or direct at http://bit.ly/1OKVT5l

http://bit.ly/1OKVT5l

http://bit.ly/1OKVT5l

Cultural Group Percent People

White 82.1% 4,417,700

African-American 4.0% 216,700

Mexican 3.4% 184,100

Hmong 1.2% 66,600

Somali 0.9% 46,300

Asian Indian 0.8% 42,800

Ojibwe 0.6% 33,500

Vietnamese 0.6% 29,800

Chinese 0.5% 29,400

Korean 0.4% 22,500

Ethiopian 0.3% 17,000

Filipino 0.3% 14,100

Liberian 0.3% 14,000

Puerto Rican 0.2% 12,500

Lao 0.2% 12,100

Russian 0.2% 9,900

Dakota 0.1% 6,100

Not in above group 3.9% 207,200

All Minnesotans 100% 5,382,400

Cultural

Groups,

by Size

+ Hmong, African-American, Somali

& Mexican Minnesotans Are Young

31

30

21

24

20

23

41

37

Ojibwe

Asian Indian

Hmong

African-American

Somali

Mexican

White

All Minnesotans

Median Age of Minnesotans,

2010-2014 average

Source: IPUMS microdata version of U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 -2014 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates. Tabulated by the MN State Demographic Center and appearing in the January 2016 report “The Economic Status of Minnesotans: A Chartbook With Data For 17 Cultural Groups,” available at mn.gov/demography

+ MN: Largest growth among Asian,

Black and Hispanic groups by 2030

60,300

223,300

264,900 258,200

84,300 63,800

358,900

419,500

491,700

128,000

American

Indian

Asian Black Hispanic Two or More

Races

2010

2030

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

+ Which MN kids are leaving high school

in 4 years with a diploma? (2014 data)

81% of all public high school students

51% of American Indian students

82% of Asian students

63% of Hispanic students (2009: 43%) + 15 pts

60% of Black students (2009: 43%) + 14 pts

86% of White students

Two fastest growing

demographic groups in MN

Sources: MN Dept. of Education

MPS has a 93% grad rate with 5% continuing

+ White working-age losses, but growth

in all other groups since 2010

1,000

22,000 26,000

15,000 8,000

-35,000

Change in MN population 15-64, 2010-2014

+ Alignment of training/education to

labor force needs is crucial

Data outcomes for all fields of study are on DEED’s website at under Graduate Employment Outcomes tool: http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/graduate-employment-outcomes/

If wage and employment rates are the outcome of interaction between supply and demand, they tells which fields of study are in demand and which are not

These data allow students/parents/school staff to steer into areas with better opportunities

Source: Steve Hine, Research Director, Labor Market Information Office, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/graduate-employment-outcomes/







+ Take-away thoughts for those

contemplating these trends

All areas of the state will feel the effects of an aging population. Health care and

long-term care will become cost-drivers of public budgets. How will we balance

this with other public needs?

However, older adults transitioning out the workforce will positively shape our

communities with volunteerism, mentoring and advancing their own solutions to

the challenges of aging.

As Baby Boomers retire, a tightening labor force will create new opportunities for

workers, but will place strain on employers. The search for skilled hands and

minds will intensify (here and across much of the globe). Fewer workers relative to

older adults puts a premium on developing, retaining, and attracting skilled

workers and business leaders — to fuel continued economic growth.

Minnesota’s communities, workplaces, and markets for business will grow more

diverse in the decades to come. The success of populations of Color is essential

for our state’s overall success—and present disparities are large.

+ And Finally…

Community leaders will need

to be brave, creative,

collaborative, and adaptive in

responding to these

demographic changes.

You are part of the solution!

+ Links to Census data, MPS area

communities, averaged 2010-2014

Social characteristics:

http://1.usa.gov/1PayxCG

Economic characteristics:

http://1.usa.gov/1nIJJAb

Demographic characteristics:

http://1.usa.gov/1QUbOQ9

Housing characteristics:

http://1.usa.gov/1Q80I5d









+

mn.gov/demography

@MN_StateData

Andi Egbert [email protected]

Documents

Major Demographic Trends Transforming MN & The …...County highlights: Population change between 2010 and 2014 Minnesota has 87 counties ranging in size from 3,400 residents (Traverse)