Major changes in European public opinion towards the …€¦ · DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 2 INTRODUCTION Since 1973 and the birth of the Eurobarometer, the

STUDYPublic Opinion Monitoring Series

Directorate-General for Communication

EPRS | European Parliamentary Research ServiceAuthor: Jacques Nancy, Public Opinion Monitoring Unit

PE 570.421- February 2016

Major changes inEuropean publicopinion towardsthe EU since1973Desk Research2015 Edition

DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION

1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 2

1. THE EUROPEAN UNION, ITS POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS ............ 4

1. Membership of the European Union and the benefits it brings5

2. Trust in the European Union ................................................. 11

3. The image of the European Union and what it means to

Europeans ........................................................................... 12

4. Trust in the European institutions ........................................ 15

5. Knowledge of how the European institutions work .............. 21

6. Trust in national institutions ................................................ 26

II. DEMOCRACY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION ........................................ 28

1. The voice of European citizens ............................................. 30

2. A feeling of European citizenship which survives the crisis .. 34

3. An enduring attachment to the European Union ................... 35

4. The components of an EU identity ........................................ 37

III. THE ECONOMY IN THE EU .............................................................. 39

1. The European economic situation and that of the national

economy .............................................................................. 40

2. Economic projections ........................................................... 43

3. The European Union in the face of the crisis ........................ 47

4. Performance of the European economy ................................ 53

IV. THE LIVES OF EUROPEANS ............................................................ 55

CONCLUSION ......................................................................................... 59


2

INTRODUCTION

Since 1973 and the birth of the Eurobarometer, the European Union has gone through

various defining stages in its history and its institutional and political structure, affecting

a wide range of issues: the strengthening of the institutions, the first direct elections to

the European Parliament in 1979, successive enlargements, the signing of various

European Treaties, the opening of borders between Member States, referendums and the

introduction of the single currency. But the evolution of the European Union has also

taken place during various periods of economic and political difficulty. It has seen the

collapse of the Soviet bloc, international conflicts, several oil crises, periods of monetary

instability, and, since 2008, a global financial and economic crisis which has resulted in

aid plans being introduced for several Member States faced with very considerable

economic difficulties. In 2015, the European Union has still to emerge from the crisis,

even if the economy is showing encouraging signs of recovery.

The Standard Eurobarometer, a survey established in 1973 and conducted twice a year

(in spring and autumn), and the special Eurobarometers have ever since enabled

changes in European public opinion to be measured among an ever-increasing number of

Europeans as the various enlargements have taken place (from nine Member States in

1979 to 28 in 2013). TNS opinion has carried out an exploratory study for the European

Parliament's Public Opinion Monitoring Unit to analyse changes in European public

opinion over time on a number of issues. The first version of this study was carried out

in 2013, followed by an update in early 2015, which took into account the surveys

conducted in 2013 and 2014. Following the Standard Eurobarometer survey of spring

2015 and the Special 'Parlemeter' Eurobarometer survey in September 2015, the

analysis should be updated.

The following aspects were studied:

- Changes in European public opinion with regard to the European Union

and its institutions;

- Democracy in the European Union;

- The Economy of the European Union;

- The lives of Europeans;

Several indicators will be analysed in each of these areas.

This analysis will attempt to take stock of European public opinion concerning these

major themes.

Each part starts with a box highlighting the main findings based on changes in the

indicators.


3

This analysis is based on several quantitative Eurobarometer surveys conducted face-to-

face by the European Commission or European Parliament (Standard EB and Special

EB)1. It relates mainly to the Eurobarometer surveys conducted since autumn 1989

(EB32), even though in most cases the questions analysed have only been asked more

recently, sometimes only in a limited number of waves. On certain questions, the

analysis goes back to the first time the question was asked (EB0 in September 1973 in

the case of the question on membership of the EU, or EB19 in spring 1983 in the case of

the perceived benefits of membership of the European Union).

The analysis is based on the European average of the Member States which made up the

European Union at the time the survey was conducted This average is weighted to reflect

the population of each of the Member States.

The reader should take into account the fact that in today’s Europe of 28 Member States,

the six most populous countries represent 70% of the EU average

1 In the case of a Standard EB (a survey conducted twice a year, in spring and autumn), the survey is designated by its number and by the period in which it was conducted. For example, we talk about EB78, autumn 2012 when referring to Standard Eurobarometer survey 78, conducted in autumn 2012. In the case of a Special Eurobarometer, the survey is designated by the exact name of the wave in which it was conducted, as well as by the month(s) in which the field work was carried out. So, for example, we talk about EB67.1, February 2007.


4

1. THE EUROPEAN UNION, ITS POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS

Elections to the European Parliament are also a time when indicators

of support for the European Union improve: these indicators improved

significantly after the 2004 vote, for example, but the improvement was

less marked after those of 2009 and 2014.

The year 2005, which was marked by the debate over ratification of

the Constitutional Treaty was an exception as far as major

institutional moments are concerned, because opinions tended to

decline: public perception of EU membership and the image of the EU

also went down. Trust in the EU, however, remained stable.

The impact of the single currency on the main indicators of opinion

regarding the European Union is also not unambiguous:

o on the eve of the single currency being put into circulation in the

first 11 countries of the eurozone, indicators tended to improve

(trust in the EU or opinion about a country's membership).

o In spring 2002, after the introduction of the euro, the EU's image

improved and opinions on membership held firm, but trust in the EU

fell.

Overall in the period under analysis – since 1997 for trust in the EU and

spring 2000 for the image of the EU – there has been a significant fall in

these two key indicators of support for the European Union. Europeans

blame it more for the economic weaknesses and associate it less with the

founding principles, such as democracy and influence in the world. Trust in

the institutions has also been strongly shaken by the economic crisis.

However, for both indicators the latest measurements (autumn 2014 and

September 2015) show an improvement.

Trust in the EU is higher than in national institutions (governments

and parliaments), but the gap has tended to close since the

onset of the crisis.

However, despite the crisis Europeans continue to associate the EU with

positive themes:

o Benefits of membership at the highest level since 1983.

o A feeling of both national and European citizenship is also at the

highest level.


5

1. MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE BENEFITS IT BRINGS

Membership of the European Union: above all, a good thing in the eyes of

Europeans from 1973 to 2015

The opinions expressed by Europeans on their country’s membership of the European

Union2have remained largely positive throughout the whole of the period under review

(1973–2015). Similarly, ‘neutral’ opinions, i.e. deeming one’s country’s membership of

the Union to be ‘neither a good thing nor a bad thing’, have remained greater than

negative opinions (i.e. classifying membership of the EU as a ‘bad thing’).

2 In general, do you think that the fact that (OUR COUNTRY) is part of the European Union is...?


6

56%

59%60%

59%

63%

53%

55%

57%56%

53%

60%59%

58%

55%

53%

50%

53%52%

51%

54%55% 55%

58%57%

60%

62% 62%

60%

65%

58%

66% 65% 65%

11%

14% 14%

9% 9%

14%13%

14% 14%13%

10%

12% 12%

15%16%

17%

14% 14%15%

13% 13%

11% 11%12%

11%

9% 9%

11%

8%

11%

8% 8% 8%

20%

18% 18%

23%

21%

24%25%

21%

23%24%

22%21%

23%22%

23%

25%26% 26%

27%

25%24%

27%26%

24%

22%

20%

22%21%

20%

25%

21% 21%

19%

13%

9%8%

7%

9%

7%8%

7%

10%

8% 8%7%

8% 8% 8%7%

8%7%

8% 8%7%

5%

7% 7% 7%8%

7%6%

5%6%

7%

EB0Autumn1973

EB1 Spring1974

EB2Autumn1974

EB3 Spring1975

EB4Autumn1975

EB5 Spring1976

EB6Autumn1976

EB7 Spring1977

EB8Autumn1977

EB9 Spring1978

EB10Autumn1978

EB11Spring1979

EB12Autumn1979

EB13Spring1980

EB14Autumn1980

EB15Spring1981

EB16Autumn1981

EB17Spring1982

EB18Autumn1982

EB19Spring1983

EB20Autumn1983

EB21Spring1984

EB22Autumn1984

EB23Spring1985

EB24Autumn1985

EB25Spring1986

EB26Autumn1986

EB27Spring1987

EB28Autumn1987

EB29Spring1988

EB30Autumn1988

EB31Spring1989

EB32Autumn1989

Generally speaking, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY'S) membership of the European Union is ... ?

A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad Don't know

EU9 EU10

2nd

EP elections

3rd

EP elections

EU12

Single European

Act

Oil crisis

1st

EP elections

Fall of the

Berlin Wall


7

65%

68%

71%

69%

65%

60% 60%

57%

54%

58%

56%

53%

48% 48%

46%

49%

51%

54%

49%

51%

49%50%

48%

54% 53%55% 54%

48%48%

56%

54%

50%

55%

53%

57%58%

52%53% 53% 53%

49%

47%

50% 50%

54%55%

8%7% 7%

8%

10%

12% 12%13% 13% 12%

14%15% 15%

17%

15%14%

12% 12% 12% 13%

14% 14%13%

12%11% 10%

11%

15%

17%

13%

15%16%

13%

16%

15%

13%

14%15% 15% 15%

18% 18%

16%17%

14%15%

21%

19%

17% 17%

19%

23%23%

25%

28%

24% 24%

26%28% 28%

30%

28% 28%

26%27% 27% 28% 27%

29%

28% 28% 29%27%

31%

29%

28%27%

30%

28%27%

25% 25%

29%

27% 28%28%

29%

31% 31% 31%

29%28%

6%6%

5%

6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6%

9%

8%

9% 9% 9%8%

10% 9%9%

10%

7%8%

6%7%

6% 6%

3%4% 4% 4% 4%

3%4%

5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%3%

2%3%

2%

EB33Spring1990

EB34Autumn1990

EB35Spring1991

EB36Autumn1991

EB37Spring1992

EB38Autumn1992

EB39Spring1993

EB40Autumn1993

EB41Spring1994

EB42Autumn1994

EB43Spring1995

EB44Autumn1995

EB45Spring1996

EB46Autumn1996

EB47Spring1997

EB48Autumn1997

EB49Spring1998

EB50Autumn1998

EB51Spring1999

EB52Autumn1999

EB53Spring2000

EB54Autumn2000

EB55Spring2001

EB56Autumn2001

EB57Spring2002

EB58Autumn2002

EB59Spring2003

EB60Autumn2003

EB61Spring2004

EB62Autumn2004

EB63Spring2005

EB64Autumn2005

EB65Spring2006

EB66Autumn2006

EB67Spring2007

EB68Autumn2007

EB69Spring2008

EB70Autumn2008

EB71Spring2009

EB72Autumn2009

EB73Spring2010

EB75Spring2011

EB77.4June2012

EB79.5June2013

EB82.4December

2014

EB84.1September

2015



5th

EP electionsEuro

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

7th

EP elections

Schengen

Maastricht

Treaty 4th

EP elections

EU15

Mad cow

disease

- Gulf War

- Financial crisis

Effects

of the

Crisis

EU28

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

electionsGerman

unification

Stability and

Growth Pact

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant

Crisis

Greek

elections


8

The benefits of membership of the European Union: always a majority over the

period, with the highest level ever in 2015

The feeling that one’s country has benefited from being a member of the European Union3 has remained a majority sentiment throughout the period under review, from spring

1983 to September 2015. In the September 2015 survey it reached as high as 60%,

which is the highest level ever achieved since 1983. The response ‘has not benefited’

reached its highest ever level in survey EB74 in autumn 2010 (39%), whilst nevertheless

remaining at a much lower level than that of the positive responses ‘has benefited’

(50%).

3 All things considered, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY) has or has not benefited from EU membership?


9

65%

68%

71%

69%

65%

60% 60%

57%

54%

58%

56%

53%

48% 48%

46%

49%

51%

54%

49%

51%

49%50%

48%

54% 53%55% 54%

48%48%

56%

54%

50%

55%

53%

57%58%

52%53% 53% 53%

49%

47%

50% 50%

54%55%

8%7% 7%

8%

10%

12% 12%13% 13% 12%

14%15% 15%

17%

15%14%

12% 12% 12% 13%

14% 14%13%

12%11% 10%

11%

15%

17%

13%

15%16%

13%

16%

15%

13%

14%15% 15% 15%

18% 18%

16%17%

14%15%

21%

19%

17% 17%

19%

23%23%

25%

28%

24% 24%

26%28% 28%

30%

28% 28%

26%27% 27% 28% 27%

29%

28% 28% 29%27%

31%

29%

28%27%

30%

28%27%

25% 25%

29%

27% 28%28%

29%

31% 31% 31%

29%28%

6%6%

5%

6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6%

9%

8%

9% 9% 9%8%

10% 9%9%

10%

7%8%

6%7%

6% 6%

3%4% 4% 4% 4%

3%4%

5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%3%

2%3%

2%

EB33Spring1990

EB34Autumn1990

EB35Spring1991

EB36Autumn1991

EB37Spring1992

EB38Autumn1992

EB39Spring1993

EB40Autumn1993

EB41Spring1994

EB42Autumn1994

EB43Spring1995

EB44Autumn1995

EB45Spring1996

EB46Autumn1996

EB47Spring1997

EB48Autumn1997

EB49Spring1998

EB50Autumn1998

EB51Spring1999

EB52Autumn1999

EB53Spring2000

EB54Autumn2000

EB55Spring2001

EB56Autumn2001

EB57Spring2002

EB58Autumn2002

EB59Spring2003

EB60Autumn2003

EB61Spring2004

EB62Autumn2004

EB63Spring2005

EB64Autumn2005

EB65Spring2006

EB66Autumn2006

EB67Spring2007

EB68Autumn2007

EB69Spring2008

EB70Autumn2008

EB71Spring2009

EB72Autumn2009

EB73Spring2010

EB75Spring2011

EB77.4June2012

EB79.5June2013

EB82.4December

2014

EB84.1September

2015



5th

EP electionsEuro

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

7th

EP elections

Schengen

Maastricht

Treaty 4th

EP elections

EU15

Mad cow

disease

- Gulf War

- Financial crisis

Effects

of the

Crisis

EU28

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

electionsGerman

unification

Stability and

Growth Pact

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant

Crisis

Greek

elections


10

45%

42%41%

44%46%

49%

44%

46% 47% 47%45%

52% 51%50% 50%

46%47%

53%55%

52%

54% 54%

59% 58%

54%56% 56%

57%

53%

50%

52%54%

60%

34%

37% 36%35%

32% 31%29%

31%32% 32%

30%

27%26%

28% 29%

34%35% 35%

33%

36%

33% 34%

30%29%

31% 31% 31% 31%

35%

39%37% 37%

31%

21% 21%22%

21%22%

20%

27%

23%

21% 21%

25%

21%

23%22% 21%

20%18%

12% 12% 12% 12% 12%11%

13%

15%

13% 13% 12% 12%11% 11%

9% 9%

EB45 Spring

1996

EB46

Autumn

1996

EB47 Spring

1997

EB48

Autumn

1997

EB49 Spring

1998

EB50

Autumn

1998

EB51 Spring

1999

EB52

Autumn

1999

EB53 Spring

2000

EB54

Autumn

2000

EB55 Spring

2001

EB56

Autumn

2001

EB57 Spring

2002

EB58

Autumn

2002

EB59 Spring

2003

EB60

Autumn

2003

EB61 Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63 Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65 Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67 Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69 Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71 Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73 Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75 Spring

2011

EB79.5

June

2013

EB84.1

September

2015

Taking everything into consideration, would you say that (OUR COUNTRY) has on balance benefited or not from being a member of the European Union?

Benefited Not benefited Don't know

5th

EP elections

Euro

6th

EP

elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Effects

of the

Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

Mad cow

disease

Subprimes

EU27

Stability and

Growth Pact

Lisbon

Treaty

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

Greek

elections

Migrant

Crisis

The

Ukrainian

Crisis


11

2. TRUST IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Europeans’ faith in the European Union was tested between autumn 1997 and spring 2015. After having been in the majority since

autumn 2004 and the enlargement to 25 Member States, faith in the EU has gone back into the minority since EB73 in spring 2010.

However, having stabilised at its lowest level in spring and autumn 2013, and in spring 2014 (EB81), it recovered

slightly in the autumn 2014 survey (37% against 50% ‘tend not to trust’) and the spring 2015 survey (40%

against 46%), while remaining in the minority.

37% 39%

41%

53%

46%44%

41% 41%

50%

44% 45%

48%

45%

57%

48%50%

47% 47% 48%

42%43% 41% 34%

31%33%

31% 31% 31%

37%40%

41%40%

40%

32%

37% 38%

42% 42%

36%

43% 43%

39%41%

32%

36% 36%

41% 41% 40%

47%45%

47% 55%

60%

57%

60%58%

56%

50%46%

22% 21% 20%

15%17% 18% 17% 17%

14% 13% 12% 13% 14%

11%

16%14%

12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 11%9% 10% 9%

11%13% 13% 14%

EB48

Autumn

1997

EB51

Spring

1999

EB55

Spring

2001

EB56

Autumn

2001

EB57

Spring

2002

EB59

Spring

2003

EB60

Autumn

2003

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79

Spring

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

I would like to ask you a question about how much trust you have in certain institutions.For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it.

Tend to trust Tend not to trust Don't know

- The European Union

5th

EP elections

Euro 6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

EU27

Effects

of the

Crisis

7th

EP elections

8th EP

elections

EU28 Election of

Juncker

Commission

Lisbon

Treaty

SubprimesThe

Ukrainian

Crisis

Migrant

Crisis


12

3. THE IMAGE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND WHAT IT MEANS TO

EUROPEANS

The image of the European Union remains predominantly positive but has

waned over time

The image of the European Union among Europeans4 has changed since spring 2000.

Positive opinions remained clearly in the majority until autumn 2009 (EB72), before

starting to decline in spring 2010 (EB73). Since autumn 2010 (EB74), they have

remained below 42% and have been surpassed several times by neutral opinions (people

saying that they have a ‘neutral’ image). However, the share of respondents declaring a

positive image of the EU has progressed steadily since autumn 2013, increasing from

31% to 41% in spring 2015. Over the whole of the period under review, positive opinions

have exceeded negative ones, and the neutral image has been increasing since 2000.

4 In general, is your image of the EU very positive, quite positive, neutral, quite negative or very negative?


13

43%42%

49% 49%47%

44%

43%

50%

47%

44%

50%

46%

52%

49%

48%

45% 45%

48%

42%

38%

40%

31% 31% 30%

41%

31% 35%

39% 41%

31%33%

31%32%

32% 32% 32%

33%

32%34%

32%34%

31%

34%

35%

36% 36%35%

37%

40%

38%

41%

39% 39%

34%

39%38%

37%

38%

19%18%

13% 14%

17%18%

21%

16%

18%

20%

16%

18%

15%

14%15%

17%16%

15%

19% 20% 21%

26%

28%29%

24%

28%25%

22%

19%

7% 8% 7%5% 5% 5% 4%

2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1%2% 2% 2% 2%

EB53

Spring

2000

EB55

Spring

2001

EB57

Spring

2002

EB58

Autumn

2002

EB59

Spring

2003

EB60

Autumn

2003

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

In general, does the EU conjure up for you a very positive, fairly positive, neutral, fairly negative or very negative image?

Total 'Positive' Neutral Total 'Negative' Don't know

Euro6th

EP elections

EU25

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

8th EP

elections

EU28

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

EU27

Subprimes

Election of

Juncker

Commission

Lisbon

Treaty

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Migrant

Crisis


14

What the European Union means: a trio of positive dimensions heads people's thinking

Throughout the survey period (from spring 2002 (EB57) to autumn 2014 (EB82)), 'freedom to travel, study and work anywhere in

the EU' was the principle which Europeans most commonly associated with the European Union. Next came the euro, with the exception

of the survey conducted in June 2013 (EB79.5), when it was briefly overtaken by peace. Peace occupied third place in most of the

surveys analysed. The concepts most frequently associated with the EU are therefore positive.

However, fourth and fifth positions are occupied by negative concepts: bureaucracy and wasting money. These have been gradually

increasing since 2002.

(TICK AS MANY CHOICES AS APPLY)

50%

53%52%

50% 50%52%

49%

44%42%

46% 45% 45% 45%

41% 41%42% 43% 43% 44%

50% 49%

49%44%

37%

38% 39% 39%

35% 34% 33%

37%40% 40%

38%37% 37% 35%

26%

32%

35%

39%

35%

32% 36% 32%33%

33%

26% 27%25%

28%

24%

24% 22%

21%

24%

26%

29%

25%

29%27%

19%

22%21%

23%21%

21%

18% 17%19%

20% 21% 21%21%

23%

23% 23%21%

24% 24%

26%23%

19%23% 22%

24% 22%

20%

19% 19% 20% 21% 23%

25%24%

28%27% 27%

23%

27%

25%

25%

22%

EB57

Spring 2002

EB62

Autumn 2004

EB63

Spring 2005

EB64

Autumn 2005

EB65

Spring 2006

EB67

Spring 2007

EB69

Spring 2008

EB70

Autumn 2008

EB71

Spring 2009

EB72

Autumn 2009

EB73

Spring 2010

EB74

Autumn 2010

EB75

Spring 2011

EB76

Autumn 2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring 2015

What does the European Union mean to you personally?

Freedom to travel, study and work anywhere in the EU Euro Peace Bureaucracy Waste of money

Effects of

the Crisis

EU28 8th EP

elections

Euro

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

FailureBolkestein

Directive

EU27

Subprimes

7th EP

elections

Lisbon

Treaty

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Migrant

Crisis

Election of

Juncker

Commission


15

4. TRUST IN THE EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS

The European institutions have suffered a gradual erosion of trust, closely

linked to the onset of the international economic crisis.

Europeans’ faith in the European institutions fell significantly between autumn 2004

(EB62)5 and autumn 2015 (EB82). Whilst people generally trusted most of the

institutions, this pattern started to reverse starting in autumn 2011 (EB76).

Broadly positive in autumn 2004 (57% in EB62 of autumn 2004), there was a

gradual reduction in the level of faith in the European Parliament until it fell

behind starting in autumn 2011 (in EB76, 41% trusted the EP as opposed to 45% who

did not). It should be noted that the round of surveys conducted in autumn 2011 showed

up a sharp decline in all the indicators. Trust in the EP briefly held the upper hand in the

June 2013 (48% as against 43%) and spring 2015 (43% as against 41%) surveys. In

the most recent survey (September 2015), 'trust' is again below 'no trust' (40% as

against 45%).

5 For each of the following European institutions, please state if you trust them or not.


16

54%

57%

52% 51% 52% 52%

56% 55%

52% 51%48%

50%48% 48%

45%

41%40%

44%

48%

39%

37%

42%

43%

40%

29%

26%

31%34%

30%32%

28% 27% 27%

31%

36%33%

37% 37%

38%

45% 46% 45%

43%

48% 48%

43%

41%

45%

17% 16%18%

16%

19%16% 16%

18%21%

18%16% 17%

15% 15%17%

14% 14%11%

9%

13%15% 15% 16% 15%

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

EB84.1

September

2015

For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it.- The European Parliament -


Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections8th EP

elections

EU27

Subprimes

EU28

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Election of

Juncker

Commission

6th

EP elections

EU25

Lisbon

Treaty

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Greek

elections

Migrant

Crisis


17

There was a similar trend for faith in the European Commission. The level of trust in this institution steadily fell until it lagged behind

starting in autumn 2011 (43% for 'no trust' in EB76, with 36% for 'trust'). After that, mistrust was dominant until the spring 2014 survey

(38% as against 42%). The last spring 2015 survey (EB83) showed trust and mistrust as being equal (40% for each).

48%

52%

46% 46% 47% 48%

52%50%

47% 47%44%

46% 45% 44%

40%

36%

36%40%

43% 35%32% 38%

40%

29%27%

31%33%

29%31%

27%26% 27%

30%

34%32%

36%

36% 37%

43%46%

44%44%

47% 46%

42%40%

23%21%

23%21%

24%21%

21%

24%26%

23%22% 22%

19% 20%23%

21%18%

16%13%

18%

22%20% 20%

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it.

- The European Commission -


Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU27

Subprimes

EU28

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

8th EP

elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

6th

EP elections

EU25

Lisbon

Treaty

The

Ukrainian

Crisis Migrant

Crisis


18

Faith in the Council of the European Union also diminished and became the lesser-

held view starting in autumn 2011 (EB76). However, people's faith showed an upturn

after autumn 2012, reaching 42% the last time this was recorded, in June 2013 (the

same figure as for mistrust). The proportion of no replies is high but has been steadily

falling since autumn 2011 (16% in EB79.5, June 2013).

40%

45%

42%40%

43% 42%

47%44%

43% 42% 41%39% 40%

36%

32% 32%

36%

42%

31%29% 29%

30%

27%

29%

26%25% 26%

29%31%

34%

34%

35%

41%

44%43% 42%

29%

26%

29%

30%

28%

27%

31% 31%

28%27% 26%

29%27%

24%

21%

16%

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it

- The Council of the European Union -


EU27

Subprimes

EU28

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Lisbon

Treaty

7th

EP elections

Effects of

the Crisis


19

Faith in the European Central Bank has followed the same pattern. This is the institution with the highest level of mistrust, although

this has been in steady decline since autumn 2013 (EB80).

46%

50%47%

44%

49%46%

53%

47%50%

48%

44%

44%

41%

43%

40%

36%35%

37% 38%

34%

31%

34% 35%

27%25%

27%

28%25%

27%

25%

24% 24%

30%

33%

33%

39%37% 38%

46%

49% 49%51%

49% 48%46% 45%

27%26%

26%

28%

26%

26%

22%

29%

26%

22% 23% 23%

20% 20%22%

18%16%

14%

11%

17%

21% 20% 20%

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it.- The European Central Bank-


Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU27

Subprimes

EU28

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

8th EP

elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

6th

EP elections

EU25

Lisbon

Treaty

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Migrant

Crisis


20

The Court of Justice of the European Union stands out from the other institutions:

'trust' has remained comfortably ahead throughout the period in question (from autumn

2004 (EB62) to June 2013 (EB79.5)). However, mistrust made great strides starting in

spring 2010 (EB73), reaching 36% in spring 2012 (EB77). It has since fallen back slightly

but is over 30%.

52%

57%

52%

48%52% 51% 50% 50%

46%49%

57%

24%21%

23%25%

23%

25%21%

28% 36%34%

32%24%22%

24%27%

25%

24%

29%

22%

18% 17%

11%

EB61

Spring 2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB73

Spring

2010

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it.

- The Court of Justice of the European Union-


EU28EU27

Subprimes

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Lisbon

Treaty

7th

EP elections

Effects of

the Crisis


21

5. KNOWLEDGE OF HOW THE EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS WORK

A majority of Europeans seem to know about some of the main workings of the

EU.

When asked a 'true/false' quiz question6 on their knowledge of how the European

institutions work, Europeans showed that they are quite well informed, with most

choosing the correct answer to the questions posed.

Knowledge of the principle of the election of Members of the European

Parliament by direct universal suffrage in every Member State has been

dominant since autumn 2002 (EB58). It has shown an increase at every European

election. The rise was particularly marked before the most recent elections, in May 2014

(71%, an increase of 17 percentage points), after which there was a fall to 59% at the

time of the last survey, in September 2015.

6 For each of the following statements about the EU, please state if you think they are true or false.


22

43%

50%

58%

50% 50%52%

48%45%

49%

53%

59%57% 56%

58%

52% 52%

57%54%

71%

62% 62%59%

36%

21%

24%

30% 30% 29%31%

35%

31%

23%

23%26% 27% 28%

30% 30% 31%29%

15%

22% 21%

26%

21%

29%

18%20% 20% 19%

21% 20% 21%

24%

18% 17% 17%14%

18% 18%

12%

17%

14%

16% 17% 15%

EB58

Autumn

2002

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB71.1

Jan. - Feb.

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82.4

December

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

EB84.1

September

2015

For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false.- The members of the European Parliament are directly elected by the citizens of each Member State-

True (correct answer) False (wrong answer) Don't know

6th

EP elections

EU25EU27

SubprimesEffects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

8th EP

elections

Bolkestein

Directive

Constitution

Failure

Election of

Juncker

Commission

Lisbon Treaty

The

Ukrainian

Crisis Migrant

Crisis

Greek

elections


23

The majority of Europeans know that the Member States do not all have the

same number of MEPs. After rising between January-February 2009 (EB71.1) and

January-February 2010 (EB73.1) (an increase of 8 points, from 48% to 56%),

Europeans' level of knowledge about the number of MEPs from each Member State has

continued to rise steadily.

20% 20% 21%

23% 23%

20%18%

48%

56% 55% 56%58% 58% 59%

32%

24% 24%

21%

19%

22% 23%

EB71.1

Jan. - Feb.

2009

EB73.1

Jan. - Feb.

2010

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB82.4

December

2014

EB84.1

September 2015

For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false.

- Each Member State has the same number of Members of the European Parliament -

True (wrong answer) False (correct answer) Don't know

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

8th EP

elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Greek elections

Migrant Crisis


24

In terms of the principle of joint agreement between the European Parliament

and the Member States regarding determining the budget of the EU, here again

there is a prevalence of correct responses throughout the period in which the

question was asked, although there was no increase.

60%

54% 54%

59%61%

57% 56%

10%12%

18%16%

18%15%

17%

30%

34%

28%25%

21%

28% 27%

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB71.1

Jan. - Feb.

2009

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB82.4

December

2014

EB84.1

September 2015

For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false.

- The EU's budget is determined jointly by the European Parliament and the Member States-


Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

8th EP

elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

Lisbon

Treaty

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Greek elections

Migrant Crisis


25

Broadly speaking, a majority of people are aware of the principle of agreement

between the European Parliament and the Member States on European

directives and regulations: this awareness crept up from January-February 2009

(EB71.1) to autumn 2011 (59%), and has remained at around 60% since.

54%

59%61% 62%

60% 60%

16%

19%

17%19%

17%

19%

31%

22% 22%

19%

23%21%

EB71.1

Jan. - Feb.

2009

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB82.4

December

2014

EB84.1

September 2015


For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false.- At the EU level, European laws (directives and regulations) have to be agreed jointly by the European Parliament

and the Member States -

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

8th EP

elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

Greek elections

Migrant Crisis


26

6. TRUST IN NATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

A large majority of Europeans do not trust their national government, and trust fell overall between 2004 and 2015. Having

reached its lowest level in autumn 2013 (23% in EB80), this trust in the national government has improved slightly since, reaching 31%

in the autumn 2015 survey.

30%34%

31% 31%35%

30% 31%

41%

34% 32% 34%38%

32%29% 29% 28%

32%

24%28% 27% 25% 23%

27% 29% 31%

61% 60%64% 62%

59%62% 62%

53%59%

62% 61%56%

63% 65% 66% 67%63%

70%67% 68%

71% 72%68%

65% 63%

9%6% 5% 7% 6% 8% 7% 6% 7% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6%

Spring 2

004

Autu

mn 2

004

Spring 2

005

Autu

mn 2

005

Spring 2

006

Autu

mn 2

006

Nov.-

Dec. 2006

Spring 2

007

Autu

mn 2

007

Spring 2

008

Autu

mn 2

008

Jan.-

Feb.

2009

Spring 2

009

Autu

mn 2

009

Spring 2

010

Autu

mn 2

010

Spring 2

011

Autu

mn 2

011

Spring 2

012

Autu

mn 2

012

Spring 2

013

Autu

mn 2

013

Spring 2

014

Autu

mn 2

014

Spring 2

015

EB61 EB62 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB66.3 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71.1 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83

For each of the following media and institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it.The (NATIONALITY) Government - % EU


Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

7th

EP elections

Effects of

the Crisis

EU28

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

6th

EP elections

EU25

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant

Crisis


27

Similarly, only a minority of Europeans trust their national Parliament. This trust in the national Parliament follows the same

trends as trust in the national government: it fell slightly overall between 2004 and 2015, reaching its lowest level in autumn 2013 (25%

in EB80). It has, however, rallied recently, to 31% in spring 2015. In each of the surveys analysed, trust in the national

Parliament very slightly exceeded trust in the national Government. However, trust in national institutions is lower than

trust in the European Union, even though the gap has tended to reduce since the start of the economic crisis.

35%38%

35% 35%38%

33%

31%

43%

35% 34% 34% 36%32% 30% 31% 31% 33%

27% 28% 28% 26% 25%28% 30% 31%

54% 55% 57% 56% 54%58%

61%

50%56% 58% 58%

55%61% 63% 62% 62% 60%

66% 66% 66% 68% 69%65%

62% 62%

11%7% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7%

Spring 2

004

Autu

mn 2

004

Spring 2

005

Autu

mn 2

005

Spring 2

006

Autu

mn 2

006

Nov.-

Dec. 2006

Spring 2

007

Autu

mn 2

007

Spring 2

008

Autu

mn 2

008

Jan.-

Feb.

2009

Spring 2

009

Autu

mn 2

009

Spring 2

010

Autu

mn 2

010

Spring 2

011

Autu

mn 2

011

Spring 2

012

Autu

mn 2

012

Spring 2

013

Autu

mn 2

013

Spring 2

014

Autu

mn 2

014

Spring 2

015

EB61 EB62 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB66.3 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71.1 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83

For each of the following media and institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it.

The (NATIONALITY) Parliament - % EU


Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

7th

EP elections

Effects of

the Crisis

EU28

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The

Ukrainian

Crisis

6th

EP

elections

EU25

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant

Crisis


28

II. DEMOCRACY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

THE MAIN FINDINGS

In 2002, one European in five believed that their opinion mattered

in the EU. In 2015, it was nearly two in five.

Over the same period, the proportion of those believing that their

opinion did not matter fell from almost seven in ten in 2002 to

fewer than six in ten in 2015.

In most of the surveys analysed, the majority of European citizens

believe that their opinion matters in their country, a percentage

that has considerably increased since 2008. A little more than six

out of ten Europeans believe that their country’s opinion matters in

the EU, but the number of people who think the opposite has increased

since 2002.

The share of people feeling they are European citizens remained

stable at above 50 per cent, without being affected by the European

Union’s own issues and fluctuations in the economic and political climate.

There were no significant changes in this indicator between 1992 and 2015.

National identity was at its highest levels in the mid-1990s, on the eve of

the introduction of the euro, and again in spring 2010 in the midst of the

debt crisis engulfing several Member States. Feelings of European

citizenship increased following the adoption of the euro and even in the

midst of the economic crisis, in particular in 2012, and reached its highest

point in 2015.

Feelings of belonging to the European Union split public opinion in

two over the period under review: It increased during the slightly

contentious debate on the ratification of the Constitutional Treaty, which

appeared to have had the effect of making the European Union a more

tangible reality in the eyes of Europeans. The 2007 enlargement also had a

positive effect on this feeling. It then dropped off, as a result of the

financial and debt crisis in the Member States, which also affected all the

other indicators, before bouncing back and exceeding 50 per cent in 2015.


29

Nevertheless, a clear majority of Europeans share the feeling that

what unites them in the EU is more important than what divides

them. They also identify as forcefully as ever, in spite of the crisis, several

European Union identity markers, and in particular democratic values and

the euro, which prove to be the principal elements constituting European

identity.

The feeling of European citizenship remains strong in spite of the

turmoil experienced by the European Union in recent years.


30

1. THE VOICE OF EUROPEAN CITIZENS

Europeans have the increasingly strong conviction that their voice counts in

their own country

Tested between spring 2008 (EB69) and the end of 2015 (EB84.1), more than half of

Europeans believed that their opinion mattered in their own country7 with two

exceptions: autumn 2008 (48% ‘do not agree’, against 46% ‘agree’) and autumn 2013

(50% against 47%), when a small majority of Europeans believed that their opinion

mattered in their own countries.

7 To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - My opinion matters in (OUR COUNTRY) -

48%

46%

51%

56%

52% 52% 51% 50%

58%

47%

55%58% 57%

63%

45%

48%

43%

38%

43%45% 46% 47%

40%

50%

42%39% 38%

35%

7%6% 6% 6% 5%

3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3%5%

2%

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB76.4

December

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82.4

December

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

EB84.1

September

2015

Please tell me for each statement, whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree. - My voice counts in (OUR COUNTRY)-

Tend to agree Tend to disagree Don't know

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP

elections

EU28

8th EP

elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Greek

elections

Migrant

Crisis


31

The majority of Europeans believe that their opinion does not matter in the EU.

Less than half of Europeans consulted between the beginning of 2002 (EB56.3

January-February 2002) and September 2015 (EB84.1) believed that their opinion

mattered in the European Union;8 at no point in the period did this proportion

exceed 50%. As a trend, this feeling has gained traction since 2002, rising from 21% in

EB56.3 in 2002 to 39% in September 2015 (EB84.1). This conviction spiked in

surveys taken in the wake of European elections: in 2004 (+9 points, to 39% in

EB62), in 2009 (+8, to 38% in EB71), and in 2014 (+13 to 42% in EB81).9

8 To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - My opinion matters in the EU - 9 Survey EB61 in spring 2004 was conducted prior to the European elections of 2004. Surveys EB71 in spring 2009, and EB81 in spring 2014 were conducted on the day after the European elections.


32

21%

30%

39% 38%

34%

36%34% 35%

30% 31%30%

38%

34% 33%

30%

26%

31% 31%

39%

29%

42%41%

42%

39%

68%

55%

52%53%

59%

54%

57%55%

61%

57%

61%

53%55%

57%

62%

65%63%

64%

57%

66%

52%53%

50%

56%

11%

15%

10% 9%7%

10%9%

10%9%

12%

9% 9%11%

10%8% 9%

6%5% 4%

5%6% 6%

8%

5%

EB56.3

Jan. -

Fév. 2002

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82.4

December

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

EB84.1

September

2015

Please tell me for each statement, whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree.- My voice counts in the EU -


Euro

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

8th EP

elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

Lisbon

Treaty

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Greek

elections

Migrant

Crisis


33

More than six out of ten Europeans believe that their country’s opinion matters

in the EU

Considerably less than half of Europeans consulted between early 2002

(EB56.3) and September 2015 (EB84.1) believed that their country's opinion

mattered in the European Union.10 Despite minor fluctuations, this proportion

remained at or above 60% at all times. However, the proportion of people who do not

agree with this opinion is trending upwards, from 20% in EB56.3 in January-February

2002, to 34% in September 2015 (EB84.1).

10 To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - (OUR COUNTRY’S) opinion matters in the EU -

63% 63%

68%66%

61% 61% 60% 61% 62%65%

62% 61%

20%

26%24% 26%

31%29%

31% 30% 29%31%

34% 34%

17%11%

8% 8% 8%10% 9% 9% 9%

4% 4% 5%

EB56.3

Jan. - Feb.

2002

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB77.4

June

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB84.1

September

2015

Please tell me for each statement, whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree.

- (OUR COUNTRY)'s voice counts in the European Union -


Euro

6th

EP elections

EU25

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Lisbon Treaty

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

Migrant

Crisis

Greek

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis


34

2. A FEELING OF EUROPEAN CITIZENSHIP WHICH SURVIVES THE CRISIS

In most of the surveys analysed, the majority of Europeans say that they see themselves as national and European (in

proportions of between 40% and 50%), except in the most recent survey, which saw the proportion seeing themselves as European rise

to 52%. A significant proportion of people see themselves solely as national, a view held by the majority between autumn 1996

and spring 1998, in autumn 1999 and in spring 2010.

38%40%

33%

37%

46%45% 44%

45%

41%38% 38% 38%

40% 40%41% 41% 41%

43%

46%

39% 38% 38% 39%

42%

38%

48%45% 46% 45%

40% 40%41%

43%

42%

45%

49%

44%

48% 49%

44%47% 46% 47% 48%

44%

41%

46%49% 49%

47% 47%

52%

7% 7%10% 9%

6% 6% 6% 7% 6%8% 7% 6% 7% 7%

8%7%

6% 7% 7% 8% 7%8%

6%7% 7%

5% 6%

4%4%

7%6% 5%

5% 5% 4%4%

4% 4% 3% 4% 3%4%3% 4% 3%

2%

4% 3…4% 3… 3%

3% 2%2%

4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4%2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%

3%

2% 2%1%

2% 3%

4%4%

1%

EB37

Spring

1992

EB40

Autumn

1993

EB42

Autumn

1994

EB43

Spring

1995

EB46

Autumn

1996

EB47

Spring

1997

EB49

Spring

1998

EB50

Autumn

1998

EB52

Autumn

1999

EB53

Spring

2000

EB54

Autumn

2000

EB56

Autumn

2001

EB57

Spring

2002

EB58

Autumn

2002

EB59

Spring

2003

EB60

Autumn

2003

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB67.1

February

2007

EB73

Spring

2010

EB76.4

December

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78.2

Nov.-Dec.

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB83

Spring

2015

Do you see yourself as …?

(NATIONALITY) only (NATIONALITY) and European European and (NATIONALITY) European only Don't know

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

EU28

5th

EP elections

4th

EP elections

EU15

Maastricht

Treaty

Mad cow

disease

Bolkestein

Directive

Euro

7th EP

electionsStability and

Growth Pact

Lisbon

Treaty

Subprimes

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

Migrant

Crisis

The Ukrainian

Crisis


35

3. AN ENDURING ATTACHMENT TO THE EUROPEAN UNION

The attachment of Europeans to their country at around 90% remains very strong and

stable over time (around 90% between EB56.3 in January-February 2002 and EB84.1 in

September 2015).

89% 89% 90% 91% 91%93%

91% 91% 91% 91% 90%

10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 7%9% 9% 9% 9% 10%

1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

EB56.3

Jan. - Feb.

2002

EB58

Autumn

2002

EB65

Spring

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB73.3

March

2010

EB77

Spring

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB84.1

September

2015

People may feel different levels of attachment to their village, town or city, to their region, to their country or to the European Union. Please tell me how attached you feel to…

- (OUR COUNTRY) -

Total 'Attached' Total 'Not attached' Don't know

EU28

EuroBolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

Constitution

Failure

7th

EP elections

8th EP

elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon Treaty

Migrant

Crisis

Greek

elections


36

Europeans are clearly more divided when it comes to their attachment to the European

Union: after being in the majority between EB65 in spring 2006 and EB73.3 in March

2010, it once again dipped below 50% between EB77 in spring 2012 to autumn 2014.

This attachment then bounced back, returning to being a majority opinion in September

2015 (EB84.1).

40%

45%

50%53%

49%53%

46%48%

46% 45%

51%56%

52%

47%44% 48% 45%

52% 50% 52% 52%

47%

5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%

EB56.3Jan. - Feb.

2002

EB58Autumn2002

EB65Spring2006

EB67Spring2007

EB68Autumn2007

EB73.3March2010

EB77Spring2012

EB79.5June2013

EB80Autumn2013

EB82Autumn2014

EB84.1September 2015

Please tell me how attached you feel to… - The European Union -

Total 'Attached' Total 'Not attached' Don't know

EU28

EuroBolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

7th

EP elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

The Ukrainian

Crisis

8th EP

elections

Lisbon

Treaty

Greek

elections

Migrant

Crisis


37

4. THE COMPONENTS OF AN EU IDENTITY

Identity markers which persist despite the crisis

'The values of democracy and freedom' were identified by respondents as the

main element underpinning the EU's identity in their eyes11 (47% in EB84.1 of

September 2015). The euro came in second place (39% in September 2015). This was

followed by culture (30%) and history (27%). Other considerations are cited by less than

a fifth of Europeans.

(MAXIMUM 3 POSSIBLE RESPONSES)

11 European identity can be composed of several elements. In your opinion, which of the following are the most important elements that go to make up the European identity? (MAXIMUM 3 POSSIBLE RESPONSES)

37%

45%

40%

47%49%

40%43%

42%

40%39%

22%

27%

26%

28%30%

24%26%

27%

24% 27%

17% 19%

23%

18%

23%20%

21%

20% 19%

12%13%

10%

13% 13%

15%15%

7%5% 5% 5% 5%

Autumn 2008 June 2012 June 2013 Nov.-Dec. 2014 Sept. 2015

EB70 EB77.4 EB79.5 EB82.4 EB84.1

The European identity can be composed of several elements. In your opinion, which of the following are the most important elements that go to make up the European identity?

(MAX. 3 ANSWERS) - % EU

The values of democracy and freedom The single currency, the euro Culture

History Geography The successes of the European economy

The EU motto: "Unity in diversity" The European flag The European anthem

Effects of

the Crisis

EU28

Election of

Juncker

Commission

Migrant

Crisis

Greek

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

7th

EP elections

8th EP

elections


38

Some three quarters of Europeans agree with the following statement regarding the

building of Europe: ‘what unites the citizens of the various countries is more

important than what divides them’. This has been the case on each occasion when

the question was asked, in autumn 2008 (EB70), autumn 2009 (EB72), June 2013

(EB79.5) and September 2015 (EB84.1).

22%27%

22%25%

50%

48%

50%47%

14%13%

15% 16%

3%3% 5% 5%

11% 9% 8% 7%

EB70

Autumn 2008

EB72

Autumn 2009

EB79.5

June 2013

EB84.1

September 2015

Don't know Totally disagree Tend to disagree Tend to agree Totally agree

Can you tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement:- What brings the citizens of the different EU Member States together is more important than what separates them. -

Total 'Disagree': 16%

Total 'Agree': 75%Total 'Agree': 72%

Total 'Disagree': 17%Total 'Disagree': 20%

Total 'Agree': 72%

Total 'Disagree': 21%

Total 'Agree': 72%


39

III. THE ECONOMY IN THE EU

THE MAIN FINDINGS

The economic crisis has had a major impact on how Europeans

perceive the economic situation in their countries and in the EU:

Both are currently perceived as bad, although this perception has

improved in recent surveys.

While prior to the crisis Europeans perceived their national economies to

be in worse shape than the EU economy, this has been reversed due to

the debt crisis. The EU therefore no longer seems to be a reassuring

point of reference in the crisis.

In terms of short-term expectations, the most recent survey from

spring 2015 (EB83) brings the first signs of optimism regarding the

various aspects that were examined (national and European

economic situation, national employment situation). Over the whole

period under review, the predominant sentiment was that things would

not change.

Other signs of tension: Although European public opinion remains

largely in favour of coordinated responses to deal with the crisis, an

increasing proportion of Europeans would like to see individual measures

taken.

Today, the proportion of Europeans who want to wait until all the

Member States are ready before stepping up the development of a

common European policy is significantly higher than the proportion

who want to do it without waiting until the other Member States are

ready.

Nonetheless, the fact that Europeans continue to view the EU as the

most credible actor to act effectively in response to the crisis is an

encouraging sign.

The keys to strengthening economic performance are training

and innovation, but the crisis has brought other issues to

light, such as reducing public debts, and has undermined

investment strategies.

Europeans' expectations of the EU are mainly focused on the

economy: they would like the European budget to be allocated, first and

foremost, to social affairs, employment and economic growth.


40

1. THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SITUATION AND THAT OF THE NATIONAL

ECONOMY

Judgments about the European economy and about the national economy

veered wildly towards negative in 2008, after the onset of the economic crisis.

The judgments of Europeans about the economic situation of the European Union12,

which were positive and on an upward trend from November 2004 (EB62.1) until autumn

2007 (EB68) became negative from autumn 2008 (EB70). They reached their lowest

level in autumn 2011 (EB76), right in the midst of the debt crisis (18%). Since then,

they have grown almost continuously, reaching 37% in spring 2015 (EB83). Over the

same period, negative judgments have fallen from 77% in autumn 2011 to 51% in spring

2015.

12 How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? Situation in (OUR COUNTRY'S) economy/Situation in the European economy/Employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY).

49% 50%53%

58% 58%

33%

24%

30%

22%

26%30%

18% 19% 19%21%

28%31% 30%

37%37% 36%

31%28% 27%

58%

68%

62%

70%

63%61%

77%75% 75%

72%

65%

56%59%

51%

13% 14% 15% 15% 15%

9% 9% 9% 8%10% 9%

5% 6% 6% 7% 7%

13%11% 12%

EB62.1

Nov.

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79

Spring

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

How would you judge the current situation in each of the following?- The situation of the European economy -

Total 'Good' Total 'Bad' Don't know

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant

Crisis


41

The judgments of Europeans about the situation of the economy in their country follow

the same trend: increase from 2004 to 2007, then rapid deterioration in 2008.

The main difference in the perception of the European economy was that the judgments

were negative in 2004 and remained negative throughout the period under review, with

the exception of spring 2007 (52% of the total ‘good’ against 44% in EB67). Since 2009,

these judgments have gradually improved, rising from 21% in spring 2009 (EB72) to

38% in spring 2015 (EB83).

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

EU28

35% 36%

41%46%

52%

48%

29%

21%23% 22%

28%31%

28% 27% 27% 26%

31%34% 34%

38%

62% 61%

56%

50%

44%

49%

69%

78%75% 77%

70%68%

71% 71% 72% 72%68%

63% 63%59%

4% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1%3% 3% 3%

EB62.1

November

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79

Spring

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

How would you judge the current situation in each of the following?- The situation of the (NATIONALITY) economy -


Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant

Crisis


42

The assessment of the employment situation at national level has seen a similar

change over the period, with negative judgments a clear majority, an improvement in

2007 and a significant deterioration in autumn 2008 and spring 2009. Since then,

judgments have improved slightly, whilst still remaining broadly negative.

22% 20%24%

27%

36%

28%

13%15%

19%24%

20% 21%20% 19%

21%23% 24%

28%

76% 77%74%

70%

62%

69%

85%83%

79%74%

78% 77%79% 80%

77%74% 73%

69%

3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3%

EB62.1

Nov.

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79

Spring

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

How would you judge the current situation in each of the following?- The employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY) -


Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

CrisisLisbon

Treaty

Migrant Crisis


43

2. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

Economic projections as a whole are fairly gloomy: fewer than one third are

optimistic, whichever indicator is analysed.

Projections about the national economic situation for the coming 12 months13

are dominated by pessimism, which wins out over optimism across virtually the whole

of the period analysed (from autumn 2004 (EB62) to spring 2015 (EB83)).

A key development occurred in spring 2015, and for only the third time: optimism once

again started to predominate (26% thought that the coming 12 months would be

'better', while 21% thought they would be 'worse').

Over and above these two aspects, it is the response ‘no change’ which takes a clear

lead.

13 What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same when it comes to...? Situation in the economy (NATIONALITY)/Situation in the European economy/Employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY).


44

18%19% 19%

21%20%

28%

24%

16%15%

25%

28%

24% 24% 23%

16%19%

17%

21% 21%

24%

22%

26%

43%

37%

39%

35% 35%

27%

26%

46%

51%

34%31%

36%

31%28%

44%

37%

40%

36%

30%

23%

28%

21%

33%

38%

37%

38%40%

38%

44%

33%

29%

36% 37%

35%

41%44%

36%

40%

39%

40%

45%47%

45%

48%

6% 6% 5% 5% 5%7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5%

4% 4% 4% 3% 4%6% 5% 5%

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

What are your expectations for the next twelve months:Will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to…? - The economic situation in (OUR COUNTRY) -

Better Worse Same Don't know

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

EU28

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

7th

EP elections

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant Crisis


45

The projections for employment at national level have also, for the most part, remained pessimistic across a large part of

the period under review (the surveys in spring 2007 (EB67), autumn 2007 (EB68) and spring 2015 (EB83) being the only exceptions).

17%18%

20%21%

23%

31%

26%

21%

13%

20%22% 22% 23%

24%

15%18%

16%

20% 20%24%

21%

26%

47%

42%40%

38%

34%

27% 25%

39%

53%

44%

40%38%

35% 30%

46%

40%

45%

42%

35%

26%

30%

23%

31%

34% 35%

36%

38%

35%

43%

34% 29%32%

34%

35%

38%41%

35%

38%

36% 35%

41%

44% 44%46%

6% 6% 5% 6% 5%7%

6% 6%5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4%

6% 5% 5%

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77.4

June

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to...?

- The Employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY) -


Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

EU28

7th

EP elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon

TreatyMigrant Crisis


46

In the case of the projections for the European economy, the pessimists mostly prevail over the optimists. However, across the

whole of the period (from autumn 2006 (EB66) to spring 2015 (EB83)), the response ‘no change’ is in the majority in most of the surveys

analysed.

28%

25%

18%

16%

24%

30%

22% 21% 21%

16% 17% 16%

21% 21%

24%

20%

24%

16%

13%

26%

41%

28%

21%

32%

27%25%

44%

39% 39%

34%

27%

18%

24%

19%

38%

46%

38%

31%

38% 38%

35%

40%42%

31% 35% 37%

38%

43% 42% 42%44%

18%17%

12%

10% 11% 11%12% 12%

9% 9% 8%7%

9%16%

14% 13%

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to...? - The economic situation in the EU -


Subprimes

EU27

Effects of the

Crisis

EU28

7th

EP elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant Crisis


47

3. THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE FACE OF THE CRISIS

In spite of serious concerns relating to the economic difficulties, Europeans

continue to favour joint action by means of coordinated measures to individual

measures.

The proportion of Europeans who believe that they would be better protected

against the financial and economic crisis if their country adopted measures

individually rose between the start of 2009 and June 201314: it moved gradually

from 26% to 41%. Over the same period, the proportion of those advocating measures

taken in a coordinated manner with other EU countries went from 61% to 50%: they

remain in the majority, however.

14 As a citizen, do you feel that you would be better protected against the current crisis if...? (OUR COUNTRY) adopted measures and applied them individually/(OUR COUNTRY) adopted measures and applied them in a coordinated manner with other EU countries/ Don't know.

26%

33%

36%

29%

38%

41%

61%

52%

56%

62%

55%

50%

13%15%

8%9%

7%9%

EB71.1

Jan. - Feb.

2009

EB74.1

Sep.

2010

EB75.2

April

2011

EB76.1

Sep.

2011

EB77.2

Mar.

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

As a citizen would you say that you would be better protected in the face of the current crisis if…?

(OUR COUNTRY) adopted measures and applied them individually

(OUR COUNTRY) adopted measures and applied them in a coordinated way with the other EU countries

Don't know

EU28

7th

EP elections

Effects of

the Crisis


48

The European Union remains the player best placed to take effective action in

response to the crisis

The European Union heads the field of players seemingly best placed to take

effective action against the effects of the crisis, closely followed by national

governments. Other players such as the G20, the IMF and the United States were cited

less often.

12%

19% 19%20% 20% 20%

21%

20% 20%22%

19%

21%22%

26%

23%22%

23% 23% 23%22%

24%

16%

12%

7% 6% 7%5%

7%

8%

8% 8% 8%

20%

18%14%

16%

14%

16%

14%

14% 14%

12%13%

14%

11%

14%15%

15%

14%

15%

13%13% 13%

13%

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

In your opinion, which of the following is best able to take effective actions against the effects of the financial and economic crisis?

The (NATIONALITY) Government The European Union

The United States The G20

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)

EU287th

EP elections

Effects of

the Crisis

The

Ukrainian

crisis

8th

EP elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission


49

High but differing expectations of the European Union

When asked where they would like to see the European Union’s budget

allocated to as a priority15, Europeans cited a range of areas, reflecting high

but differing expectations of the EU. Two economic matters head the list: social

affairs and employment (50% in June 2013 – i.e. +14 points since the first time this

question was asked, in autumn 2008, in the EB70), and economic growth (48%, +10

points). These are followed by education and training (43%, +13 points), and public

health (41%, +9 points). Other considerations are cited by less than a quarter of

Europeans.

15 And on which of the following would you like the EU budget to be spent? Firstly? And then? (YOU MAY SELECT UP TO 4 AREAS)


50

(PLEASE SELECT A MAXIMUM OF 4 AREAS)

9%

3%

1%

3%

4%

7%

5%

7%

12%

13%

17%

23%

14%

22%

19%

32%

30%

38%

36%

3%

1%

1%

3%

4%

5%

5%

6%

12%

14%

14%

22%

19%

22%

20%

36%

39%

40%

42%

2%

2%

1%

3%

5%

5%

6%

7%

12%

14%

15%

17%

18%

18%

22%

41%

43%

48%

50%

Don't know

None (SPONTANEOUS)

Other (SPONTANEOUS)

Administrative and personnel costs, buildings

Culture and media

Assistance to EU neighbours, and to candidate countries (if

necessary: explain that candidate countries are countries thatare officially candidates for accessing the EU)

Transport

Development and humanitarian aid to countries outside the EU

Immigration issues

Regional investment

Defence and security

Climate change and environmental protection

Agriculture and rural development

Energy issues

Scientific research

Public health

Education and training

Economic growth

Social affairs and employment

And on which of the following would you like EU budget to be spent? Firstly? And then?

EB79.5 June 2013 EB75 Spring 2011 EB70 Autumn 2008


51

A growing majority do not feel that the euro has limited the impact of the crisis

Although Europeans see the European Union as a credible player when it comes to

addressing the financial and economic crisis, they do not feel that the single

currency has played a part in limiting the impact of the crisis16. A majority of

Europeans have since early 2009 (EB71.1) disagreed with the view that the euro has

mitigated the adverse effects of the crisis. This figure has grown overall, passing the

50% mark in spring 2011 (EB75).

Yet in the eyes of the same Europeans, as is shown on page 15, the euro is the second

most important thing in terms of what the EU represents for them personally. The euro is

also one of the most important factors in European identity, coming in second place after

democratic values (page 38).

16 Could you tell me to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: overall the euro has mitigated the negative effects of the crisis

39%41%

37%39%

37%

34%

38%

44%45%

49% 48%51%

54%51%

17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%

11%

EB71.1

Jan. - Feb.

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76.1

September

2011

EB79.5

June

2013

Could you tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with the following statement: Overall the euro has mitigated the negative effects of the crisis.

Total 'Agree' Total 'Disagree' Don't know

EU28

7th

EP elections

Effects of

the Crisis


52

Europeans divided on the pace of integration

The view that Europe should wait until all Member States are ready before

stepping up the development of common European policies in key areas has

gained ground since this question was first asked in spring 2007 (EB67.2): it has

become the majority view, rising from 37% in spring 2007 to 48% in September 2015

(EB84.1).

47% 47%45%

43%

47%

39%

41%

37%

40%42%

46%

43%

49%48%

16%13% 13%

11% 10%12% 11%

EB67

Spring

2007

EB76.4

December

2011

EB78.2

Nov.-Dec.

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB81.1

January

2014

EB82.4

Dec.

2014

EB84.1

September

2015

When it comes to EU’s activities, some Member States are ready to set up common

European policy in certain important areas. Do you think that they should…?

Do so without waiting for the other EU Member States

Wait for all the EU Member States to be ready to do it

Don't know

Subprimes

EU27

7th EP

elections

Effects of

the Crisis

EU28

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Election of

Juncker

Commission

Lisbon

Treaty

Greek

elections

Migrant

Crisis


53

4. PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY

Strengthening the European Union's economic performance

Europeans have been asked, since autumn 2004, to state what initiatives they

consider would strengthen the economic performance of the EU17: during the

period under review (autumn 2004 to June 2013)18, they consistently placed

‘improving education and professional training’ at the top of their list. 60%

respondents cited this item in the period up until the start of the economic crisis in 2008.

From 2009 onwards – i.e. from the start of the crisis, but also with the addition of new

items – it is cited less often, while remaining top of the list by some way.

Between 2004 and 2009, the second-placed initiative for improving the economic

performance of the European Union was investing in research and innovation. From

the EB72 in autumn 2009, around a year after the start of the crisis, it remains a key

priority in the eyes of Europeans, even though it is cited less often. Reducing public

deficits and debt, which was added at the time the crisis became a debt crisis, in

the EB72 of spring 2010, has grown in importance and took over in second place from

autumn 2010.

Making it easier to start a business is also perceived as a priority lever for improving

the performance of the European economy: it occupies third place in most of the surveys

reviewed.

17 Which three initiatives could most improve the performance of the European economy? (YOU MAY SELECT UP TO 3 INITIATIVES) 18 N.B. New items were gradually added to this field in 2009 and 2010, which altered the order of priority of the responses. It would nevertheless seem worthwhile considering those changes, which reflect the economic crisis, while factoring in the usual methodological precautions arising from the changes to the list of initiatives given to respondents.


54

(PLEASE SELECT A MAXIMUM OF 3 INITIATIVES)

Most cited answer 2nd most cited answer 3rd most cited answer

Improve education and

professional trainingInvest in research and innovation

Make it easier to set up a

business

63% 49% 43%




business

60% 49% 46%




business

58% 43% 42%




business

62% 47% 43%




business

65% 47% 43%




business

52% 40% 34%


professional training


businessInvest in research and innovation

42% 33% 28%


professional trainingReduce public deficits and debt


business

47% 35% 33%




business

48% 34% 34%




business

46% 38% 35%




business

46% 39% 33%




business

47% 32% 32%

EB66

Autumn 2006

EB79.5

June 2013

Which three initiatives could most improve the performance of the European economy?

EB62.1

Nov. 2004

EB63

Spring 2005

EB64

Autumn 2005

EB65

Spring 2006

EB72

Autumn 2009

EB73

Spring 2010

EB74

Autumn 2010

EB75

Spring 2011

EB77

Spring 2012

EB78

Autumn 2012


55

IV. THE LIVES OF EUROPEANS

THE MAIN FINDINGS

Europeans’ expectations concerning their personal lives are

dominated by the feeling that things will remain the same over in the

year to come. More respondents viewed the future positively than

negatively in most of the surveys reviewed. The crisis had a clear impact

on their expectations.

In their replies concerning 'life in general', fewer respondents were

optimistic and more became pessimistic: this trend began in autumn 2007

and took off again in autumn 2011. However, since autumn 2011,

there has been an increase in positive expectations among the

European public.

The same is true in the case of the personal job situation of

respondents to surveys between 1998 and 2015.

The area worst affected by the events of recent years has been the

financial situation of households, with pessimism concerning the

coming months being greater than optimism as early as spring 2008, and

markedly so as from autumn 2011. It was not until spring 2014 that

optimism overtook pessimism again (EB81).


56

Personal outlooks have been consistent over time

Throughout the period autumn 1995 to autumn 2014, a clear majority of Europeans felt their ‘life in general’ was going to

remain the ‘same’ over the next 12 months (with percentages ranging from 49% to 59% over the period as a whole)19. Optimism

has always won out over pessimism, although the gap between the two shrank significantly with the start of the economic crisis (from a

27-point gap in the EB54 in autumn 2000, to a 1-point gap in the EB76 in autumn 2011). However, since autumn 2013 (EB80), the gap

has again started to widen (20 points in the EB83 survey in spring 2015).

19 What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same when it comes to...? Your life in general / The financial situation of your household / Your personal job situation

33%31%

34% 33% 33% 34% 33% 34% 33% 32%35% 34% 35% 35% 34%

37%

30%32%

24%

27%26%

24%26% 26%

21%23% 22% 22%

25%27% 28% 29%

13%16%

12%10%

7% 7%8%

11%12%

15%13% 11%

13% 12% 12%11%

13%16% 22%

14%15%

18%15%

14% 20%

17%

19%19%

15%

10% 11%9%

51% 51% 50%52%

56% 55%54%

51% 51% 50% 50%51%

49%51% 51%

49%

54%

49%51%

56% 56%55% 56% 57% 56% 56% 56% 57% 57%

59% 58% 59%

3% 3%5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3%

EB44

Autumn

1995

EB46

Autumn

1996

EB48

Autumn

1997

EB50

Autumn

1998

EB52

Autumn

1999

EB54

Autumn

2000

EB56

Autumn

2001

EB58

Autumn

2002

EB60

Autumn

2003

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB 71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to…?- Your life in general -


Euro

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

Mad cow

disease 5th

EP elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Stability and

Growth Pact Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant

Crisis


57

The findings are quite similar, but even more consistent, when Europeans are asked more specifically about their career

prospects: an absolute majority of Europeans, varying very little between 1998 and 2015, think that things will stay the

same in the coming year. Over the whole of the period under review, the proportion of Europeans who think that their personal job

situation will improve is consistently higher than the proportion expecting it to deteriorate. That gap decreases with the start of the crisis,

but not as much as for ‘life in general’.

22%24% 25%

23% 23%21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23%

22%20%

18% 19% 19% 18% 19% 19%16% 16% 17% 17% 18%

20% 20%22%

7%5% 6% 6%

9%

10% 10% 9% 9% 9%

8% 8%

10%

10% 10%9%

13%

12% 12% 12%

13%

7% 8% 8%

62% 61% 61% 62% 61% 60% 60% 60% 61% 60% 61%60% 60% 61% 61%

58% 59% 59% 60% 60% 60% 59% 60% 59% 59%61% 60% 60% 60%

8% 9% 9% 9% 8%10%

9% 8% 8%

9%

8% 8%

9% 9%

9%

12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12%

12%8%

13% 12%10%

EB50

Autumn

1998

EB52

Autumn

1999

EB54

Autumn

2000

EB56

Autumn

2001

EB58

Autumn

2002

EB60

Autumn

2003

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB661

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB 77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to…?- Your personal job situation -


Euro6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

5th

EP elections

Subprimes

EU27EU28

Bolkestein

Directive

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon

Treaty

Migrant

Crisis


58

The same general trends emerge when Europeans are asked how they expect the financial situation of their household to

change: a majority expect their situation to remain the same in the coming year (between 50% and 60% over the period 1998 to 2012

as a whole).

26% 27% 27%25% 24%

23% 22%24% 24%

25% 25% 24%

27%25%

22%

18%

21% 21%

19%

20% 20%

17% 18%

18%19% 19%

21%22%

23%14%

10% 11% 11%

16%

20%21% 21%

18%19% 19% 19%

16%

19%

25%27%

18%19%

20%

19%17%

24%

21%23% 24%

19% 14% 14%

11%

56%58% 58% 59%

55%53% 54%

52%

55%53% 54% 55% 54% 53%

50%52%

58% 57% 58% 58%60%

56%58%

56% 55%

59%

62% 61%63%

5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5%3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%

EB50

Autumn

1998

EB52

Autumn

1999

EB54

Autumn

2000

EB56

Autumn

2001

EB58

Autumn

2002

EB60

Autumn

2003

EB61

Spring

2004

EB62

Autumn

2004

EB63

Spring

2005

EB64

Autumn

2005

EB65

Spring

2006

EB66

Autumn

2006

EB67

Spring

2007

EB68

Autumn

2007

EB69

Spring

2008

EB70

Autumn

2008

EB71

Spring

2009

EB72

Autumn

2009

EB73

Spring

2010

EB74

Autumn

2010

EB75

Spring

2011

EB76

Autumn

2011

EB77

Spring

2012

EB78

Autumn

2012

EB79.5

June

2013

EB80

Autumn

2013

EB81

Spring

2014

EB82

Autumn

2014

EB83

Spring

2015

What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to…?- The financial situation of your household -


Euro

6th

EP elections

EU25

Constitution

Failure

Bolkestein

Directive

Subprimes

EU27

Effects of

the Crisis

7th

EP elections

EU28

5th

EP elections

Election of

Juncker

Commission

8th EP

elections

The Ukrainian

Crisis

Lisbon

Treaty Migrant

Crisis


59

CONCLUSION

The main findings to emerge from this review were as follows:

1/ A number of trends can be detected from an assessment of the changes in

European public opinion over the period of more than forty years from 1973 to

2014:

- Since 1973, the feeling that membership of the EU is a good thing has been

shared by a clear majority of Europeans.

- Moreover, since 1983 and reaching a peak in 2015, a majority of respondents

have felt their country has benefited from membership of the EU.

- Despite some fluctuations, economic circumstances and political changes have

had little impact on the feeling of attachment to the European Union.

2/ However, the major institutional and political developments affecting the EU

and in particular successive enlargements and the eight European elections held since

1979 have frequently brought about changes in opinion:

- Enlargements have often proved to be occasions on which views on the EU have

improved after an initial hardening of opinion. This is particularly true in the case

of feelings about membership of the EU, as well as confidence in the EU and the

image of the EU.

- In the case of European elections, this swing is less clear. However, in the

aftermath of European elections, one sees an increase in the feeling among

European citizens that '[their] vote counts in the EU'. There was a particularly

sharp increase in that feeling after the elections in May 2014.

3/ Throughout the period under review, economic circumstances have had a

determining effect on swings in European public opinion. Economic crises have

triggered a serious worsening of opinions about the European Union, especially when

those crises are likely to impact directly on the lives of European citizens. This is

especially true of the 2008 economic crisis, which produced significant changes in the

indicators reflecting support for the European Union:

- There was a significant deterioration of the EU's image between autumn

2011 and autumn 2013, when the economic crisis became a Member State

public debt crisis; since autumn 2013, there has been a gradual increase in the

number of respondents having a positive image of the EU.

- confidence in the European Union and its institutions deteriorated from

spring 2010: confidence in the EU reached a low point in spring 2012, spring

2013, autumn 2013 and spring 2014, before recovering in autumn 2014 and in

spring 2015, while remaining the minority opinion.

- The crisis also had an adverse impact on the feeling among European citizens that

their voices were not taken into account in the European Union.


60

Unsurprisingly, the assessment indicators for the economic situation have

also deteriorated, sometimes spectacularly, since the start of the crisis. Since

autumn 2008, the economic situation in Europe has been judged increasingly

‘bad’ by Europeans, and this reached a low-point in autumn 2011. Since then,

however, the number of respondents viewing the economic situation positively

has started to increase.

- There has also been an impact on outlook indicators: between 2009 and 2011,

the proportion of Europeans feeling that the national and European economic

situations would improve over the next 12 months fell, before recovering again as

from 2011.

- However, an absolute majority of Europeans has continued to believe that their

life, their personal job situation and the financial situation of their

household would remain stable over the coming 12 months.

- The changeover to the euro does not seem to have had a major impact on

European public opinion: all that happened was national sentiments peaked

very slightly immediately before the launch of the single currency (in 2002).

- On the other hand, a majority of Europeans feel that the euro has not

mitigated the negative effects of the crisis. Nevertheless, it remains a key

factor in European identity and an important symbol of what the EU means to

Europeans.

4/ The economic crisis has understandably had repercussions on Europeans' opinions,

especially when it comes to indicators of support for the EU, but there are several

positive considerations:

- Even though some indicators show support for the EU to have hardened during

the crisis, a clear majority of Europeans still feel that there is more that unites

the citizens of the Member States than divides them: this was the case each

time this question was asked, in 2008, 2009, 2013 and 2015.

- Europeans believe that they would be better protected against the crisis if

their country took coordinated measures with the other Member States,

rather than individual measures. However, this feeling decreased between

September 2011 and June 2013, despite remaining the majority feeling.

- Between 2009 and 2015, the EU was always considered by Europeans to be

the player best placed to take effective action against the effects of the

financial and economic crisis.

This desk research focusses on the major shifts in Europeanpublic opinion towards the European Union since 1973, whenEurobarometer was created by Jacques-René Rabier. The resultsare presented in a timeline and illustrate the evolution ofcitizens' opinion in the key phases of the Union's institutional,political, economic and social development. This is the secondedition of the 2014 Desk Research, updated with results of the2015 Parlemeter.

The main findings on the evolution of public opinion in the last 40years from 1973 to 2014 show that it has gone up and down,notably in response to financial, economic and social crises. Themajor institutional and political staging-posts in the EU'sdevelopment have generally improved the perception of the EU.This is particularly true of enlargements and elections to theEuropean Parliament.

This analysis shows the overriding influence of the economic andsocial context on public opinion. This is very well illustrated bythe financial and economic crisis which began in 2008, promptinga sharp decline in indicators of support for the EU. However,even in this context of crisis, results show that Europeans remaincommitted to Europe when it comes to basic EU values.

PE 570 421ISBN 978-92-823-8596-8doi:10.2861/003001QA-04-16-026-EN-N

This is a publication of the Public Opinion Monitoring UnitDirectorate-General for Communication, European Parliament

The content of this document is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinionsexpressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the EuropeanParliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work.

Documents

Major changes in European public opinion towards the …€¦ · DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 2 INTRODUCTION Since 1973 and the birth of the Eurobarometer, the