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8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
1/23
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,537 Ontarians by Smart IVR™ from May 18, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell pho
were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on2011 Canadian Census.
EMBARGOED UNTIL: TBDPRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
ONTARIO MAY 2016
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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63% SAY DONATIONS INFLUENCED GOVERNMENT POLICY
May 28, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Ontarians support proposed refoo Ontario’s campaign financing laws - with 63% saying they believe donations have influenced provin
government policy. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 2
We’ve seen the provincial government in the headlines for all the wrong reasons lately,” said Quito Mapresident of Mainstreet Research. “The Wynne government reacted swiftly once it became apparent their fundraising practices had the potential to dominate the news cycle. Other premiers however facimilar criticism decided to do nothing at all; in British Columbia, Christy Clark stared down critics
defeated an initiative to bring in contribution limits. In Saskatchewan, Brad Wall batted away any talcampaign financing reform.”
The new reforms will make it tougher for third parties to advertise as they now face strict limits on whey can spend before and during election campaigns - these are moves Ontarians support. 68% supp
banning campaign contributions from unions and corporations (as well as establishing an individcontribution limit) and 61% approve of the limitations on third party spending before and during electi
The Liberals’ per-vote subsidy has only 43% support among Ontarians with 42% opposed, a statisticaThe per-vote subsidy has the lowest support of the campaign financing reform plan.
Overall, 69% support the campaign reform plan. 63% of Ontarians also believe campaign contributhave influenced government policy - a claim the provincial government denies.
Provincially we are seeing a closer race between the PCs and Liberals, with the NDP falling to 16%. egional numbers tell a different story however. The Liberals only lead in the City of Toronto and EastOntario. In Southwest, South Central and Northern Ontario the PCs lead by 9%, they also lead by 5% ineat-rich GTA. With redistribution underway, this would set up some very tight races in Bramp
Mississauga and Durham region,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three level
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of pu
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30-
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected]
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
3/23
If a Provincial Election were held today, whichparty would you support?
ONDPOLP PCs Green Undecided
0
5
0
5
20
25
30
35
April 9 April 28 Sept 21 Nov 1 Feb 16 May 19
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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If a Provincial Election were held today, whichparty would you support?
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Undecided
Sample
18-34
31%
29%
15%
5%
19%
301
35-49
28%
31%
15%
5%
21%
601
50-64
28%
33%
18%
4%
16%
834
65+
26%
38%
15%
3%
18%
801
Male
30%
38%
16%
5%
11%
1,201
Fema
28%
27%
16%
4%
26%
1,336
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Undecided
Sample
SW
22%
31%
18%
7%
22%
432
SC
24%
33%
24%
2%
17%
423
416
35%
30%
14%
6%
15%
451
905
30%
35%
10%
3%
22%
460
North
18%
34%
25%
3%
20%
350
East
34%
30%
16%
4%
15%
421
ON
29%
32%
16%
4%
19%
2,537
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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DECIDED & LEANING
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
April 9 April 28 Sept 21 Nov 1 Feb 16 May 19
ONDPOLP PCs Green
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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DECIDED & LEANING
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Sample
18-34
40%
36%
19%
5%
250
35-49
36%
37%
21%
6%
485
50-64
33%
38%
23%
5%
690
65+
33%
45%
18%
4%
642
Male
34%
42%
19%
5%
1,044
Fema
37%
35%
22%
5%
1,023
Liberal
PC
NDP
Green
Sample
SW
31%
39%
22%
8%
360
SC
28%
37%
31%
5%
340
416
41%
33%
19%
7%
386
905
38%
44%
15%
3%
365
North
23%
42%
32%
3%
280
East
39%
36%
20%
4%
336
ON
36%
38%
20%
5%
2,067
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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UNDECIDED VOTERS ONLY (LEANINGS)
23%
20%
17%
3%
37%
ONDPOLP PCs Green Undecided
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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Support for Campaign Election Reforms
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
18-34
32%
37%
11%
10%
9%
35-49
29%
38%
12%
10%
10%
50-64
29%
39%
9%
13%
10%
65+
35%
37%
11%
11%
6%
Male
30%
38%
11%
13%
9%
Fema
32%
38%
11%
9%
9%
Strong A
Some A
Some D
Strong D
Not Sure
SW
30%
34%
13%
13%
10%
SC
31%
41%
9%
12%
7%
416
34%
39%
11%
8%
8%
905
30%
38%
11%
11%
10%
North
33%
38%
8%
13%
8%
East
29%
40%
12%
11%
9%
ON
31%
38%
11%
11%
9%
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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Approval for Per-Vote Subsidy
10%
33%
31%
13%
13%
Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove Not Sure
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8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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Approval for Banning Corporate/Union Donatioand Lowering Individual Contribution Limits
37%
31%
7%
9%
16%
Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove Not Sure
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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Approval for Banning Corporate/Union Donatioand Lowering Individual Contribution Limits
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
18-34
37%
30%
7%
8%
17%
35-49
36%
31%
7%
11%
15%
50-64
35%
31%
8%
10%
16%
65+
42%
31%
6%
6%
15%
Male
33%
33%
9%
10%
15%
Fema
41%
29%
5%
8%
17%
Strong A
Some A
Some D
Strong D
Not Sure
SW
40%
31%
6%
7%
15%
SC
20%
39%
9%
5%
26%
416
39%
28%
8%
8%
17%
905
39%
31%
7%
12%
11%
North
36%
32%
8%
8%
17%
East
38%
29%
6%
9%
18%
ON
37%
31%
7%
9%
16%
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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Approval for Limitations on Third Party Spendin
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
18-34
29%
35%
16%
6%
14%
35-49
27%
34%
16%
6%
17%
50-64
28%
36%
15%
6%
15%
65+
29%
24%
23%
7%
17%
Male
26%
36%
19%
5%
14%
Fema
30%
30%
15%
7%
18%
Strong A
Some A
Some D
Strong D
Not Sure
SW
33%
27%
20%
7%
13%
SC
15%
32%
18%
5%
31%
416
29%
32%
18%
7%
15%
905
27%
39%
16%
5%
13%
North
38%
29%
9%
6%
17%
East
26%
33%
18%
6%
18%
ON
28%
33%
17%
6%
16%
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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63%
21%
16%
Yes No Not Sure
Approval for Limitations on Third Party Spendin
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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Yes
No
Not Sure
SW
66%
17%
16%
SC
61%
19%
19%
416
58%
27%
15%
905
62%
21%
17%
North
77%
13%
10%
East
65%
20%
15%
ON
63%
21%
16%
Approval for Limitations on Third Party Spendin
ON
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10
63% 21% 16%
63% 19% 18%
63% 23% 14%
60% 22% 18%
64% 20% 16%
62% 23% 15%
67% 18% 15%
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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SCRIPT
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support?
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen WynneThe Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
The NDP led by Andrea HorwathThe Green Party led by Mike Schreiner
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen WynneThe Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
The NDP led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party led by Mike SchreinerUndecided
Recently the provincial government announced changes to election campaign financing laws. The n
rules would lower the donation limits for individuals and ban donations from unions and corporatioAt the same time, a per-vote subsidy would be introduced of $2.26 per vote that would decline ovetime and third party groups would face limits on what they could spend before and during electiocampaigns. Do you approve or disapprove of these changes to election campaign financing rules?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly DisapproveNot Sure
Part of the province’s plan is to introduce a per-vote subsidy of $2.26 to political parties which woueventually be lowered to $1.70 per vote. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed per-vote
subsidy?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly DisapproveNot Sure
Part of the province’s plan is to ban corporate and union donations. At the same time, the donation li
for individuals would be lowered to $7,750. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed ban oncorporate and union donations and a lower donation limit for individuals?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat ApproveSomewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove
Not Sure
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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Part of the province’s plan is to limit the amount of money third party groups can spend before anduring elections. Under the new plan third parties will be allowed to spend $100,000 during an elect
and $600,000 before a scheduled election campaign. Do you approve or disapprove of theselimitations on third party groups?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat ApproveSomewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Many of the changes the province has brought forward to election laws came after criticism of largcorporate and union donations to the provincial Liberal party. The government has claimed donatio
had no impact on government policy. Do you think donations had an impact on provincial policy or n
YesNo
Not Sure
SCRIPT
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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GTAAjax
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillBrampton Centre
Brampton EastBrampton NorthBrampton SouthBrampton West
DurhamKing—Vaughan
Markham—Stouffville
Markham—ThornhillMarkham—UnionvilleMississauga Centre
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Mississauga—Erin MillsMississauga—Lakeshore
Mississauga—MaltonMississauga—Streetsville
OshawaPickering—Uxbridge
Richmond Hill
Thornhill
Vaughan—WoodbridgeWhitby
Barrie—Innisfil
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteDufferin—Caledon
Newmarket—AuroraSimcoe North
York—Simcoe
EASTBay of Quinte
CarletonGlengarry—Prescott—Russell
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockHastings—Lennox and Addington
Kanata—CarletonKingston and the Islands
Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonLeeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lak
Nepean
Northumberland—Peterborough SouthOrléansOttawa CentreOttawa South
Ottawa West—NepeanOttawa—Vanier
Peterborough—KawarthaRenfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
NORTH
Algoma—Manitoulin—KapuskasingHuron—Bruce
KenoraNickel Belt
Nipissing—TimiskamingParry Sound—Muskoka
Sault Ste. Marie
SudburyThunder Bay—Rainy River
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthTimmins—James Bay
SOUTH-CENTRAL
Brantford—BrantBurlington
Flamborough—GlanbrookHaldimand—Norfolk
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekHamilton Mountain
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
MiltonNiagara CentreNiagara Falls
Niagara WestOakvilleOakville North—Burlington
Simcoe—Grey
St. Catharines
RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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SOUTH-WESTBruce—Grey—Owen Sound
CambridgeChatham-Kent—Leamington
Elgin—Middlesex—LondonEssex
GuelphKitchener Centre
Kitchener South—HespelerKitchener—Conestoga
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
London North CentreLondon WestLondon—Fanshawe
Oxford
Perth—WellingtonSarnia—Lambton
WaterlooWellington—Halton Hills
Windsor WestWindsor—Tecumseh
TORONTO (416)Beaches—East York
DavenportDon Valley East
Don Valley NorthDon Valley West
Eglinton—LawrenceEtobicoke Centre
Etobicoke NorthEtobicoke—Lakeshore
Humber River—Black Creek
Parkdale—High ParkScarborough CentreScarborough North
Scarborough Southwest
Scarborough—AgincourtScarborough—GuildwoodScarborough—Rouge Park
Spadina—Fort York
Toronto CentreToronto—DanforthToronto—St. Paul's
University—Rosedale
WillowdaleYork Centre
York South—Weston
RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
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WHITBY
Most Accurate Pollster of the
Whitby by election.
SASKATCHEWAN
Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewan’s
general election, top results within MoE.
MANITOBA
Most Active Pollster of Manitoba’s gener
election, top results within MoE.
CALGARY GREENWAY
Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary
Greenway by election.
8/15/2019 Mainstreet - Ontario May 2016
23/23
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h
been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major
government in the 2015 federal election.
CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca
@MainStResearch
fb.com/mainstresearch