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Main-streaming climate variability and change Main-streaming climate variability and change in flood managementin flood management
Avinash TyagiDirector, Climate and Water
World Meteorological Organization
4th International Symposium on Flood Defence4th International Symposium on Flood DefenceToronto, 8th May 2008Toronto, 8th May 2008
New IPCC FindingsNew IPCC Findings
• Confirms impacts we are already witnessing
• Impacts dependent upon both climate change and adaptive capacity
• Emphasizes the importance of adaptation
• Recommends a portfolio approach
Manifested through….Manifested through….
Precipitation form, timing and quantity
Sea level rise
Air temperature
Settling on floodplains has enormous advantages
www.gaestehaus-loreley.de
SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
and at the same time poses great risks
changes in the averages/ trends
Climate change will intensify the Climate change will intensify the hydrologic cycle…hydrologic cycle…
changes in variability (magnitude, severity, duration)
HazardsHazards
– Floods– Droughts– Flow regime changes
Floods and DroughtsFloods and Droughts
““A warmer climate, with its increased climate A warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both floods and variability, will increase the risk of both floods and droughtsdroughts” IPCC AR4, 2007” IPCC AR4, 2007
• Difficulties in creating scenarios of changes in rainfall as applied to « flood-producing » events
• Influence of geology
• Anthropogenic changes may be more pronounced
• Droughts have many definitions and the risks have climatic and non-climatic factors influencing it
• Critically dependant on water management practices
Flood damages are increasing…Flood damages are increasing…
Challenges of Flood ManagementChallenges of Flood Management
Population increasePopulation increase
Securing livelihoodsSecuring livelihoods
Absolute safety from Absolute safety from flooding is a mythflooding is a myth
Challenges of Flood ManagementChallenges of Flood Management
Climate variability and changeClimate variability and change
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Changes in decision Changes in decision making processesmaking processes
Ecosystem ConservationEcosystem Conservation
AdaptationsAdaptations
• Future vulnerability depends on development pathways,
• Extensive adaptation is required to reduce vulnerability,
• Adaptations will be necessary to address impacts,
• A portfolio of adaptation options have to be studied.
Inte
grat
ed f
lood
man
agem
ent
Water Resources Management and Water Resources Management and Flood ManagementFlood Management
IWRM
OC
EA
NO
CE
AN
RIVER SYSTEM
WATER QUALITY CONTROL
REGIONAL RETENTIONDETENTION
WASTE WATER
WATER SUPPLY
RETENTION
URBANISED LAND SURFACE
SEWERAGE TREATMENT
PLANT
SOIL
GROUND WATER
PIPE orOPEN DRAIN
Urban Flood Hydrologic CycleUrban Flood Hydrologic CycleUrban Flood Hydrologic CycleUrban Flood Hydrologic Cycle
SEWER
DETENTION
RAIN
EVAPORATION
EVAPORATION
Urban floodsUrban floods
• integrated land use planning to achieve multiple uses for urban land,
• capture and storage of roof runoff in order to reduce demands on the potable water supply,
• ponding of stormwater runoff for use in non-potable water supply,
• use of infiltration facilities to reduce direct storm runoff and increase low flows in rivers.
Integrated Flood ManagementIntegrated Flood ManagementPRINCIPLESPRINCIPLES
Risk ManagementRisk Management
Water Cycle as a wholeWater Cycle as a whole
Multi-hazard approachMulti-hazard approach
River basin as a planning unitRiver basin as a planning unitInter-disciplinaryInter-disciplinary
Stakeholders participationStakeholders participation
Integrated Flood Management: Integrated Flood Management: ObjectivesObjectives
–Sustainable development: balancing development
needs and flood risks
–Maximising benefits: ensure livelihood security and
poverty alleviation thereby reducing vulnerability
–Minimising loss of life
–Environmental preservation
supported with appropriate– Legislation and regulations;
– Institutional structures for proper coordination and appropriate linkages;
– Economic instruments;
– Enabling participatory processes; and
– Information management and exchange mechanisms.
Requirements of IFMRequirements of IFM
Clear and objective policies with a multidisciplinary approach
Difficulties in AdaptationsDifficulties in Adaptations
• Lack of basic information
• Insufficient monitoring and observation systems
• Settlements in vulnerable areas
• Appropriate political, technological and institutional framework
• Lack of capacity
• Low income
SOURCE: IPCC Working Group II Report, 2007
Mission of APFMMission of APFM
“ to support countries in the integrated management of floods
within the overall framework of integrated water resources management.”
Flood Management Policy SeriesFlood Management Policy Series
• Instrumental in bridging disciplinary gaps for IFM
• Expert-group based
• Peer-reviewed
• Specific target groups– Policy Makers
– Flood Managers
– Experts in respective special fields
• Target group adapted language and format
Data Communication Forecast DecisionSupport Notification Coordination Actions
Hydrological Observations
Data transmission Flood Forecasting
DecisionsAppropriateIndividuals
&Groups
Preparedness,Response and
Decisions
Evacuation andRescue operations
a Critical Chain of Events and Actions
Flood forecasting, warning and Flood forecasting, warning and response system response system
Flood risk assessment
adaptive management ……..adaptive management ……..
Flood Proofing and Building Codes
Flood RegulationsBasin Flood Planning
Conclusions…Conclusions…
Use resilient policies: Integrated Flood Management
Beginning today based on imperfect climate information is far better than no action at all.
Use today’s available science to discuss possible future scenarios that factor the possibility that the future MAY NOT look like the past.
““Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.”but with the future of present decisions.”
Peter Drucker Peter Drucker
