Mahindra Lifespaces - 1QFY2014 Result Update

7/27/2019 Mahindra Lifespaces - 1QFY2014 Result Update

1/11

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

(` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq)Revenue 67 104 (35.6) 102 (34.4)EBITDA 9 32 (71) 17 (45.7)

EBITDA margin (%) 13.9% 30.6% (17) 16.8% (2.9)

Adj. PAT 16 29 (46.2) 23 (32.1)Source: Company, Angel Research

For 1QFY2014, Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLIFE) posted a disappointing

set of numbers which were below consensus estimates, both on the revenue and

profitability fronts. MLIFEs standalone revenue reported a decline of 35.6% yoy

to `67cr in 1QFY2014; which was lower than the consensus estimate of`104.4cr. The standalone EBITDA declined by 71% yoy to `9cr, owing to

lower-than-expected revenue recognition and increase in staff cost during the

quarter. On the earnings front, the companys PAT decreased by 46.2% yoy

to `16cr (consensus estimate was `22.8cr). On a consolidated level, MLIFE

reported a revenue of `176.1cr and PAT of `21.8cr, suggesting a profit for its

subsidiaries at the net level. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.Sales expected to pick up in forthcoming quarters: MLIFE launched three existingproject (a) Ashvita Ph-III (Hyderabad), (b) Bloomdale IIA (Nagpur) and (c) Iris

Court Ph-IIIA (MWC Chennai) during the quarter. Further, the company sold

0.16mn sqft (new sales; real estate business) for a total transaction value of

`70cr, implying a realization of ~`4,375/sqft and has also added three newcustomers in Jaipur MWC. Going forward, we expect strong sales numbers alongwith improving realizations in the coming quarters on the back of sharp pick up inapprovals and new launches anticipated in the current financial year.Outlook and valuation: We remain positive on MLIFE given its diversifiedgeographic exposure in terms of ongoing and forthcoming real estate projects.

We expect strong sales numbers over the coming quarters, following new project

launches in Pune, Chennai and Mumbai, along with robust execution. The stock is

currently trading at P/BV of 1.3x and 1.2x our FY2014 and FY2015 estimate. We

value MLIFE on a SOTP basis and slightly adjust our NAV to `537/share, and

apply a 10% discount to our SOTP value to arrive at a target price of `483,

suggesting an 7% upside from the current levels. We recommend an Accumulaterating on the stock.Key Financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 701 738 888 1,002% chg 14.6 5.3 20.3 12.8

Net Profit 119 141 138 172% chg 10.1 18.7 (2.1) 24.2

EBITDA (%) 27.3 32.8 27.0 29.9

EPS (`) 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1P/E (x) 15.4 13.0 13.2 10.7

P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

RoE (%) 10.3 10.9 9.9 11.2

RoCE (%) 10.5 11.7 10.1 11.9

EV/Sales (x) 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.4 10.2 10.4 8.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

ACCUMULATECMP `450

Target Price `483

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Market Cap (` cr)

Net Debt (` cr) 1,173

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Avg. Daily Volume

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 51.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 3.3

FII / NRIs / OCBs 29.4

Indian Public / Others 16.3

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 3.3 17.6 9.9

MLife 15.1 36.2 (6.5)

MAHLIFE.BO

MLIFE@IN

Real Estate

1,836

0.9

472/315

2,406

10

19,805

5,908

Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Mahindra LifespacePerformance Highlights

1QFY2014 Result Update | Real Estate

July 25, 2013


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Mahindra Lifespace Developers| 1QFY2014 Result Update

July 25, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)

(` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 67 104 (35.6) 102 (34.4) 352 469 (25.0)Other operating income - - - - -Total income 67 104 (35.6) 102 (34.4) 352 469 (25.0)

Cost of project 43 58 (26.8) 62 (31.5) 211 292 (27.8)

(% of total income) 63.8 56.1 61.1 60.0 62.3

Employee Cost 7 7 13.7 6 15.1 26 21 24.0

(% of total income) 11.0 6.2 6.3 7.4 4.5

Administrative and other expenses 8 7 2.7 16 (53.2) 42 35 19.3

(% of total income) 11.3 7.1 15.8 11.8 7.4

Total Expenditure 58 72 (20.1) 85 (32.1) 278 348 (20.0)EBITDA 9 32 (70.8) 17 (45.7) 73 121 (39.6)(EBITDA %) 13.9 30.6 16.8 20.8 25.8

Interest 11 1 667.6 1 625.9 6 3 108.1

Depreciation 1 0 23.3 0 10.4 2 3 (34.0)

Other Income 24 13 76.6 14 69.2 71 52 35.6

PBT 22 43 (49.9) 29 (25.4) 136 168 (18.9)PBT (%) 32.5 41.7 28.6 38.7 35.7

Total Tax 6 14 (57.5) 6 0.5 38 47 (19.0)(% of PBT) 27.6 32.5 20.5 28.3 28.3

Reported PAT (After Min. Int. and Asso.) 16 29 (46.2) 23 (32.1) 97 120 (18.9)PAT Margins (%) 23.5 28.1 22.7 27.7 25.6

Extra ordinary exp/(inc) - - - - -Adj PAT 16 29 (46.2) 23 (32.1) 97 120 (18.9)EPS (`) 3.9 7.2 (46.2) 5.68 (32.1) 24 29 (18.9)


New launches to drive sales growth

During the quarter, the company has launched its third phase of project Ashvita

(Hyderabad) and has already sold 40% of the total units at a realisation of

~`4,100/sqft. The company has also launched (a) Bloomdale IIA in Nagpur, (b)

Iris Court Ph-IIIA in MWC Chennai and (c) its maiden luxury housing project

LArtista in Pune during the quarter. The Mumbai residential project Splendour IIand Iris Court Ph-I have been completed during the quarter. In 1QFY2014, the

company sold 0.16msf (new sales) in its real estate business for a total transaction

value of `70cr, implying a realization of ~`4,375/sqft. During the quarter, the

company has also signed three lease deeds in Jaipur MWC (two in DTA and one in

Evolve). Going forward, we expect strong sales numbers along with improving

realizations in the coming quarters on the back of sharp pick up in approvals and

new launches anticipated in the current financial year.

Out of the eight MOUs for land parcels signed during 3QFY2013, the company

has successfully acquired two more land parcels, ie one each in Boisar,

MMR- Affordable housing and Gurgaon Harayana during the quarter. Both theland parcels are for residential development with a potential of ~0.5mn sqft of

development space in Boisar and ~0.92mn sqft of development space in

Gurgaon.


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July 25, 2013 3

Exhibit 2:MLIFE: Sales Volume (Mn Sqft) & Value (`cr)

62

302

53

52

86

155

151

70

0.1

0.6

0.10.2

0.2

0.4 0.4

0.2

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Residential Sales (LHS) Area sold


Exhibit 3:MLIFE: Price Realization

5,167

4,951

4,062

3,256

4,110

3,969

3,974

4,375

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

(`

perSqft)


Lower revenue recognition hampers revenue growth

MLIFE reported a disappointing set of numbers for the quarter on the standalone

basis. MLIFEs standalone revenue reported a decline of 35.6% yoy to `67cr in

1QFY2014, which is lower than the consensus estimate of`104.4cr. This is mainly

due to (a) some project failing to reach revenue recognition and (b) slow execution

in few projects. The standalone EBITDA decreased by 71% yoy to `9cr, owing to

lower-than-expected revenue recognition and increase in staff cost during the

quarter. On the earnings front, the companys PAT decreased by 46.2% yoy to

`16cr (consensus estimate was `22.8cr). The company has sold 0.16msf (new

sales; real estate business) for a total transaction value of `70cr and has leased

three new customers in its Jaipur MWC. On a consolidated level, MLIFE reported a

revenue of`176.1cr and PAT of`21.8cr, suggesting a profit for its subsidiaries at

net level.

Exhibit 4:Revenue and Revenue growth trend

20

5

(1)

(15)

28

(11)

(60)

(27) (36)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

1QFY14

Revenue (` cr) - LHS Growth %


Exhibit 5:EBITDA and EBITDA margins

21

2830

23

30.6

18.0

14.716.8

13.9

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

1QFY14

EBIDTA (` cr) - LHS EBITDA m argin



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July 25, 2013 4

Operational Performance

Exhibit 6:Ongoing projects evaluation by city (mn Sqft)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Chennai Mumbai Pune NCR Nagpur Hyderabad


Exhibit 7:Forthcoming projects evaluation (mn Sqft)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.08.0

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Che nn ai Mum bai Pune NCR Nagpur Hyderabad Bangalore


Exhibit 8:Land bank evaluation by city (mn Sqft)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Chennai Mumbai Pune Hyderabad Nasik Bangalore


Exhibit 9:New Chennai: Project execution schedule (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Aqualily Villas IB Iris Ph I Iris Court Ph II* Iris Court Ph IIIA


Exhibit 10:Execution schedule of Mumbai projects (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Angelica Splendour


Exhibit 11:Execution schedule of NCR projects (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14Aura- IV Aura- II Aura- III Aura- V



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July 25, 2013 5

Investment arguments

In the right markets

MLIFE is a mid-market and premium housing developer. The company caters tostrong demand present in tier-1 cities and small metros, which are typically end-

user driven, as opposed to investor-led demand in super metros ie National

Capital Region (NCR) and Mumbai.

MLIFE, with its focus on upper-middle & middle class housing along with

affordable housing, should see strong pent-up demand over the next few quarters,

especially in light of the fact that housing loan growth has been lagging total credit

growth, which can see a possible reversion as rate cuts start to take place, which

should get reflected in mortgage rates.

Change in estimates

Considering the new launches lined up and five projects hitting the revenue

recognition threshold, we are slightly revising our FY2014 and FY2015 estimates.

We expect a revenue of `888cr and `1,002cr for FY2014 and FY2015

respectively. The EBITDAM estimate has been revised to 27.0% and 29.9% for

FY2014E and FY2015E, respectively. Due to increase in interest cost and rise in

operating expense, we are now estimating a PAT of `138cr (earlier`148cr) and

`172cr (earlier`177cr) for FY2014 and FY2015, respectively.

Exhibit 12:Revised estimates

FY2014E FY2015E(` cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Var. (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Var. (%)Revenue 888 888 0.0 1,002 1,002 -EBITDA 237 240 1.2 307 299 (2.4)

EBITDA (%) 26.6 27.0 0.4 30.6 29.9 (0.7)

PAT 148 138 (6.5) 177 172 (3.1)EPS (`) 36.3 33.9 (6.6) 43.4 42.1 (3.1)



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July 25, 2013 6

Outlook and valuation

We remain positive on MLIFE given its diversified geographic exposure in terms of

ongoing and forthcoming real estate projects. We expect strong sales numbers

over the coming quarters, following new project launches in Pune, Chennai andMumbai, along with robust execution. The stock is currently trading at P/BV of 1.3x

and 1.2x our FY2014 and FY2015 estimate. We value MLIFE on a SOTP basis and

slightly adjust our NAV to `537/share, and apply a 10% discount to our SOTP

value to arrive at a target price of`483, suggesting an 7% upside from the current

levels. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.Exhibit 13:SOTP Break-up

37930

30

71 27537

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Residential

Commercial

MWC-Jaipur

MWC

Chennai

Current

Investments


Exhibit 14:MLIFE: One Year Forward P/B and 3yr Avg.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

P/B (x) Avg P/B (3 yr)

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Angel Research

Company Background

Mahindra Lifespace Developers, a 51% owned subsidiary of the Mahindra and

Mahindra Group, is in the business of real estate development, with a focus on

residential projects and integrated infrastructure development such as business

cities, industrial parks and SEZs. MLIFE has till date developed ~7mn sqft of

residential projects in cities like Mumbai, Pune, NCR, and Chennai and is

expanding its presence to cities like Hyderabad, Nagpur and Nasik by increasing

its focus on the premium and mid-market segments. The company has also

announced its plans to enter the affordable housing segment in tier-2 cities. MLIFE

is also present in the integrated development space, with two operational projects

through its subsidiaries MWC Jaipur and MWC Chennai. These are spread overan area of ~4,200 acres with presence of SEZs and DTAs.


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July 25, 2013 7

Profit & Loss statement (consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EOperating income 418 612 701 738 888 1,002% chg 22.3 46.4 14.6 5.3 20.3 12.8Operating Expenses 253 366 427 398 515 561

Personnel 18 23 29 35 53 55

Other 34 47 53 63 80 86

Total Expenditure 305 436 510 496 648 702

EBITDA 113 176 191 242 240 299% chg 55.3 56.6 8.5 26.4 (0.9) 24.9(% of Net Sales) 27.0 28.8 27.3 32.8 27.0 29.9

Depreciation& Amortisation 7 8 9 9 9 10

EBIT 106 168 182 233 230 290% chg 38.8 58.6 8.1 28.1 (1.2) 25.7(% of Net Sales) 25.4 27.5 26.0 31.6 25.9 28.9

Interest & other charges 9 11 21 31 40 49

Other Income 22 15 27 34 41 46

(% of sales) 2.2 1.9 3.0 4.2 4.5 4.9

PBT 119 172 188 236 231 287% chg 16.4 44.7 9.3 25.5 (2.1) 24.2Tax 38.3 58.7 59.3 79.9 78.3 97.2

(% of PBT) 32.3 34.1 31.5 33.9 33.9 33.9

PAT (reported) 81 113 129 156 153 190Extraordinary (Expense)/Inc. - - - - - -Minority Interest 2 5 10 15 14 18

ADJ. PAT 78 108 119 141 138 172% chg 22.2 37.8 10.1 18.7 (2.1) 24.2(% of Net Sales) 18.8 17.7 17.0 19.1 15.6 17.2

Basic EPS (`) 19.2 26.5 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 19.2 26.5 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1% chg 19.6 37.7 10.1 18.7 (2.1) 24.2


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July 25, 2013 8

Balance Sheet (consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 41 41 41 41 41 41Preference Capital 10 - - - - -

Emp. Stock Option Outstand. 0 1 1 1 1 1

Reserves& Surplus 938 1,024 1,114 1,252 1,361 1,497

Shareholders Funds 989 1,065 1,155 1,293 1,403 1,538Minority Interest 82 83 100 86 100 118

Total Loans 421 518 505 778 788 799

Others 10 20 26 51 51 51

Total Liabilities 1,501 1,686 1,786 2,207 2,342 2,506APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 186 209 234 256 276 296

Less: Acc. Depreciation 23 31 39 47 56 66

Net Block 163 178 195 209 220 230Goodwill 29 30 29 95 95 95

Capital Work-in-Progress 13 17 8 7 7 7

Investments 148 87 175 133 133 133

Current Assets 1,394 1,706 1,852 2,414 2,656 2,941Cash 133 238 150 144 138 128

Loans & Advances 207 293 367 433 545 599

Inventory 906 936 1,049 1,631 1,725 1,935

Debtors 121 173 198 90 108 122

Other current assets 25 65 89 115 139 156

Current liabilities 245 332 473 651 770 900

Net Current Assets 1,148 1,373 1,379 1,763 1,887 2,041Mis. Exp. not written off

Total Assets 1,501 1,686 1,786 2,207 2,342 2,506


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July 25, 2013 9

Cash Flow Statement (consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 119 172 188 236 231 287

Depreciation 3 8 8 7 9 10Change in Working Capital (128) (120) (93) (390) (130) (165)

Other income (22) (15) (27) (34) (41) (46)

Direct taxes paid (38) (59) (59) (80) (78) (97)

Others

Cash Flow from Operations (67) (14) 16 (261) (8) (12)(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets 17 (27) (16) (20) (20) (20)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (40) 61 (87) 42 - -

Other income 22 15 27 34 41 46

Others

Cash Flow from Investing (0) 49 (77) 55 21 26Issue of Equity - 0 - 0 - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 89 97 (13) 273 10 11

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (13) (19) (24) (29) (29) (36)

Others (20) (9) 9 (45) - -

Cash Flow from Financing 56 70 (27) 199 (19) (25)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (12) 105 (88) (6) (6) (11)

Opening Cash balances 145 133 238 150 144 138Closing Cash balances 133 238 150 144 138 128


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July 25, 2013 10

Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 23.4 17.0 15.4 13.0 13.2 10.7

P/CEPS 21.6 15.8 14.3 12.2 12.4 10.1

P/BV 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

Dividend yield (%) (0.7) (1.0) (1.3) (1.6) (1.6) (2.0)

EV/Sales 5.1 3.5 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.5

EV/EBITDA 18.8 12.0 11.4 10.2 10.4 8.4

EV / Total Assets 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 19.2 26.5 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1

EPS (fully diluted) 19.2 26.5 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1

Cash EPS 20.8 28.5 31.4 36.7 36.2 44.5

DPS (3.2) (4.7) (5.8) (7.0) (7.1) (8.8)

Book Value 242.3 260.8 282.8 316.7 343.5 376.7

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 25.4 27.5 26.0 31.6 25.9 28.9

Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

ROIC (Post-tax) 5.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 7.1 8.4

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Leverage (x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4

Operating ROE 11.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 14.3 16.7

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 7.4 10.6 10.5 11.7 10.1 11.9

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 8.2 12.0 11.8 12.6 10.8 12.6

ROE 7.9 10.2 10.3 10.9 9.9 11.2

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5

Inventory / Sales (days) 731 550 517 662 690 667

Receivables (days) 85 88 97 71 41 42

Payables (days) 255 242 288 413 400 434

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 831 641 615 704 692 667Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.14 0.18 0.16 0.4 0.37 0.35

Net debt to EBITDA 1.2 1.1 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.8

Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 11.4 14.9 8.6 7.5 5.7 5.9


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July 25, 2013 11

Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Mahindra Lifeapaces

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Documents

Mahindra Lifespaces - 1QFY2014 Result Update