View
213
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Magna India Fund – the Magna India Fund – the investment opportunityinvestment opportunity
KC ReddyKC Reddy
MannheimFebruary 2006
2Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
IntroductionIntroduction
KC Reddy – the ManagerKC Reddy – the Manager
Kommera Chakradhar (KC) Reddy – CFA
Previously with Thames River - UK
Credit Agricole – Hong Kong
Peregrine - India
MBA, Indian Institute of Management (associated with MIT’s Sloan School)
10 years experience investing in India10 years experience investing in India
3Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
IntroductionIntroduction
KC Reddy - historic track recordKC Reddy - historic track record
1997* 1998 1999 2000**
The Himalaya Fund
-13.50% -11.06% 110.98% 21.34%
MSCI India Index
-12.35% -22.89% 84.67% 17.59%
Source: JP Morgan Fleming country fund research
* End Oct 1997 - end Dec 1997
** End Dec 1999 – end March 2000
4Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
Magna Umbrella Fund plc
Magna Greater China
€ 30.5m
Magna Russia
€ 61.7m
Magna Eastern
European€ 399.1m
Magna Latin
America€ 45.0m
Magna Global Emerging Markets€ 212.7m
Magna Turkey€ 69.8m
Comprehensive emerging markets offering
Source: Charlemagne Capital – end December 2005
Magna India
€ 21.1m
Introduction Introduction
The Magna fund rangeThe Magna fund range
Magna EMEA
€ 36.3m
5Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
IndiaIndia
Convincing macroeconomic case
Diversified market: bottom-up opportunities
Our process aims to find these
Positive outlookPositive outlook
Broad market opportunitiesBroad market opportunities
6Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
IndiaIndiaMacroeconomic summaryMacroeconomic summary
Year to March 2004 2005e 2006e
Real GDP growth % 8.6 6.9 7.1
Inflation 5.5 6.5 3.9
General govt. debt (% GDP)
65.9 57.3 55.1
Foreign debt (% GDP) 20.4 19.1 18.0
Central Bank net FX reserves ($bn)
102.0 130.6 138.1
Source: CSFB – Sept 2005
Improving economic fundamentals
7Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
UPA election win in 2004: Manmohan Singh (Prime Minister) and P. Chidambaram (Finance Minister) both widely respected reformers
Liberalisation of key areas (telecommunications, construction, infrastructure…)
Improved relations with Pakistan
IndiaIndia
Reform-minded administrationReform-minded administration
Improved political outlook
8Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
55%
57%
59%
61%
63%
65%
67%
69%
71%
73%
75%
Newly industrialised countries (Korea, Taiwan, HK, Singapore) South East Asia (Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia) China India
Working age population (% overall population)
IndiaIndia
Young population, vibrant economyYoung population, vibrant economy
Source: UBS – Nov 2005 Favourable demographic & income trendsFavourable demographic & income trends
India
Favourable demographics: 75% of population under 40
Middle income and higher to rise from 18% of total to 41% 1995-2007
9Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
IndiaIndia
The last great underleveraged economyThe last great underleveraged economy
Source: Citigroup – Nov 2005
A credit boom waiting to happenA credit boom waiting to happen
7%
17%
34%
53%
75%80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
India Thailand Malaysia Taiwan US Korea
Consumer Loans Outstanding/GDP (%)
10Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
IndiaIndia
Over 5,000 listed companies
No industry group exceeds 20% of market cap
Massive improvement in corporate balance sheets
A stock picker’s paradiseA stock picker’s paradise
FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06e
Net debt to equity (%)
42.2 40.7 34.6 26.4 14.8 1.9
Source: Citigroup – Nov 2005
Broad market, good fundamentalsBroad market, good fundamentals
11Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
The Market
Charlemagne Capital UniverseSelected opportunity set
Company visitsSpecial situations
Liquidity test
PortfolioFocused
Low volatilityBased on client objectives
IN OUT
IN OUT
Aiming for superior risk-adjusted returns
IndiaIndiaThe investment processThe investment process
12Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
Disciplined bottom-up research
Valuation (relative & absolute)
Price target
Management
Top line growth
Bottom line growth
Cash flow
Balance sheet
Shareholder / governance focus
Track record and strategy
Market leadership
Innovative products
Cost management
Consistent growth
Sufficient internally generated CF
Access to finance
Solvency risk
IndiaIndia
Qualitative screen checklistQualitative screen checklist
13Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
* MSCI India Index
Source: Charlemagne Capital / MSCI – 30 Dec 05
Large loads = active managementLarge loads = active management
Stock name Model weighting Index weighting* Load
Infosys Technologies 0.00% 13.80% -13.80%
Satyam Computers 9.69% 3.80% +5.89%
Tata Motors 7.86% 2.78% +5.08%
Tanla Solutions 5.00% 0.00% +5.00%
Housing Dev. Finance 0.00% 4.75% -4.75%
IndiaIndia
Magna India Fund: our top ideasMagna India Fund: our top ideas
14Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
* MSCI India Index
Source: Charlemagne Capital / MSCI – 30 December 2005
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Energy Materials Industrials Consumer HealthCare
Financials Technology Others
Fund Wgt Index Wgt
Sector Allocation 30 December 2005
IndiaIndia
e.g. property
Large loads = active managementLarge loads = active management
Magna India Fund: active managementMagna India Fund: active management
15Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
IndiaIndia
SummarySummary
India – a market for stock pickers
Our process seeks these opportunities
Magna India Fund – our best ideas
Good outlook for this changing marketGood outlook for this changing market
16Charlemagne CapitalSpecialists in Emerging Markets
The DisclaimerThe Disclaimer
This document is issued by Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”). Magna Umbrella Fund plc is an open ended investment company authorised by the Financial Regulator as a UCITS, recognised by the FSA under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for marketing to persons in the UK, registered for public distribution in Germany and Luxembourg, authorised for public distribution in Austria, registered by the Autoriteit Financiële Markten in The Netherlands and authorised for public offering and solicitation in and from Switzerland by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission (the Fund is not subject to supervisions by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission or other Swiss public authority). This document must not be relied on for the purposes of making any investment decisions. Before investing in any fund(s) recipients who are not professional investors should contact their independent financial adviser and should read all documents relating to the particular fund(s) such as any report and accounts and offering memorandum/prospectus, which specifies the particular risks associated with the fund(s), together with any specific restrictions applying and the basis of dealing. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. The information in this document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other advice and is not a recommendation or an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy shares in the fund(s), which may only be made on the basis of the fund’s prospectus/ offering memorandum which can be obtained from the address below. An investor in the United Kingdom who enters into an investment agreement to acquire an interest in the fund will not have the right to cancel the agreement under any cancellation rules made by the FSA. Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited reasonably believes that the information contained herein is accurate as at the date of publication but no warranty or guarantee (express or implied) is given as to accuracy or completeness. The information and any opinions expressed herein may change at any time. This document and shares in the fund shall not be distributed, offered or sold in any jurisdiction in which such distribution, offer or sale would be unlawful and until the requirements of such jurisdiction have been satisfied. The purchase of shares in the fund constitutes a high risk investment and investors may lose a substantial portion or even all of the money they invest in the fund.
Issued by Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited - Authorised and Regulated by the FSA.
Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited
39 St. James‘s Street
London SW1A 1JD
United Kingdom
Tel: + 44 (0)20 7518 2100
Fax: + 44 (0)20 7518 2198/9
www.charlemagnecapital.com