5
INVESTMENTS ® September 30, 2016 Market Review Equity and risk assets continued their march forward as central banks around the world continued to signal accommodation. The S&P 500® Index gained +3.9%, the Russell Midcap® Index advanced +4.5% and the MSCI EAFE (international stocks) gained 6.4% during the quarter. Fixed income markets were mixed as longer-dated interest rates increased modestly, resulting in negative price returns which were largely offset by interest income. The Barclays Intermediate Government/Credit Index gained +0.16%, while the Barclays Aggregate Index advanced +0.46% for the quarter. The robust year-to-date returns have surprised investors (including us) as the S&P 500 returned +7.8% and the Russell Midcap advanced +10.3%, while the Barclays Intermediate Gov./Credit Index gained +3.3% and the Barclays Aggregate Index advanced +5.8% for the first nine months. Even non-U.S. stocks have moved into positive territory as the MSCI EAFE Index recouped losses from earlier in the year and now shows a +1.7% gain for the year-to-date period. The third-quarter was characterized by a “risk-on” mentality with nearly all risk assets gaining in value; generally, the higher the risk the larger the return. Part of the investor conundrum appears tied to the near-zero and negative-interest rate environment that permeates much of the world today. In an environment where assets may now be liabilities (think of assets invested at a negative interest rate), investors have continued to take on more risk. Indeed, lower-rated securities have taken the place of more secure instruments, longer-duration bonds have been substituted for shorter bonds, and “income” equities have been substituted for fixed income. Following the basic economic laws of supply and demand, prices of these risk assets have increased driven by higher demand. All of which feels good now as we experience out-sized returns, but conversely also implies lower returns in the future. In fact, much of the current political rhetoric can be traced to this phenomena, as increasing asset values have disproportionately benefited the asset owners, who tend to be wealthier individuals. At the same time, real household incomes have declined for the bottom half of income earners, leading to a ripe environment for a sentiment shift away from global trade and immigration towards a more protectionist platform. While we have witnessed this first hand in the U.S., with the unexpected popularity of Donald Trump, it is also occurring world- wide as evidenced by the recent UK vote to exit the European Union (EU). Indeed, much of Europe appears to be grappling with the same issue. Populist forces recently shook Germany as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party finished behind the rightwing, anti-immigrant party in parliament – the first time since World War II. Meanwhile, several Eastern European members (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia) have laid down a series of demands to the EU Commission over immigration and the economy. Although economists may argue about who benefits from global growth, nearly all agree that, in aggregate, the world economy benefits; therefore, a continued shift toward protectionism madisonfunds.com | madisonadv.com 888.971.7135 Past performance does not predict future results. Please refer to the final two pages of this piece which contain current performance information for the fund, the risks of investing in the fund and a complete list of the fund’s individual portfolio holdings as of quarter end. Individual portfolio holdings are identified to illustrate our approach to investing the fund’s portfolio and are not intended to represent a recommendation to buy or sell any such security. Madison Diversified Income Fund Investment Strategy Letter John Brown, CFA Portfolio Manager Industry since 1983 Paul Lefurgey, CFA Head of Fixed Income Industry since 1988 Chris Nisbet, CFA Portfolio Manager Industry since 1990 Drew Justman, CFA Portfolio Manager Industry since 2001

Madison Diversified Income Fund Investment Strategy Letters3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/madison-funds/Investment... · 2016-11-21 · recommendation to buy or sell any such security

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Madison Diversified Income Fund Investment Strategy Letters3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/madison-funds/Investment... · 2016-11-21 · recommendation to buy or sell any such security

INVESTMENTS®

September 30, 2016

Market Review

Equity and risk assets continued their march forward as central banks around the world continued to signal accommodation. The S&P 500® Index gained +3.9%, the Russell Midcap® Index advanced +4.5% and the MSCI EAFE (international stocks) gained 6.4% during the quarter. Fixed income markets were mixed as longer-dated interest rates increased modestly, resulting in negative price returns which were largely offset by interest income. The Barclays Intermediate Government/Credit Index gained +0.16%, while the Barclays Aggregate Index advanced +0.46% for the quarter. The robust year-to-date returns have surprised investors (including us) as the S&P 500 returned +7.8% and the Russell Midcap advanced +10.3%, while the Barclays Intermediate Gov./Credit Index gained +3.3% and the Barclays Aggregate Index advanced +5.8% for the first nine months. Even non-U.S. stocks have moved into positive territory as the MSCI EAFE Index recouped losses from earlier in the year and now shows a +1.7% gain for the year-to-date period.

The third-quarter was characterized by a “risk-on” mentality with nearly all risk assets gaining in value; generally, the higher the risk the larger the return. Part of the investor conundrum appears tied to the near-zero and negative-interest rate environment that permeates much of the world today. In an environment where assets may now be liabilities (think of assets invested at a negative interest rate), investors have continued to take on more risk. Indeed, lower-rated securities have taken the place of more secure instruments, longer-duration bonds have been substituted for shorter bonds, and “income” equities have been substituted for fixed income. Following the basic economic laws of supply and demand, prices of these risk assets have increased driven by higher demand. All of which feels good now as we experience out-sized returns, but conversely also implies lower returns in the future.

In fact, much of the current political rhetoric can be traced to this phenomena, as increasing asset values have disproportionately benefited the asset owners, who tend to be wealthier individuals. At the same time, real household incomes have declined for the bottom half of income earners, leading to a ripe environment for a sentiment shift away from global trade and immigration towards a more protectionist platform. While we have witnessed this first hand in the U.S., with the unexpected popularity of Donald Trump, it is also occurring world-wide as evidenced by the recent UK vote to exit the European Union (EU). Indeed, much of Europe appears to be grappling with the same issue. Populist forces recently shook Germany as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party finished behind the rightwing, anti-immigrant party in parliament – the first time since World War II. Meanwhile, several Eastern European members (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia) have laid down a series of demands to the EU Commission over immigration and the economy.

Although economists may argue about who benefits from global growth, nearly all agree that, in aggregate, the world economy benefits; therefore, a continued shift toward protectionism

madisonfunds.com | madisonadv.com888.971.7135

Past performance does not predict future results. Please refer to the final two pages of this piece which contain current performance information for the fund, the risks of investing in the fund and a complete list of the fund’s individual portfolio holdings as of quarter end. Individual portfolio holdings are identified to illustrate our approach to investing the fund’s portfolio and are not intended to represent a recommendation to buy or sell any such security.

Madison Diversified Income Fund Investment Strategy Letter

John Brown, CFAPortfolio ManagerIndustry since 1983

Paul Lefurgey, CFAHead of Fixed Income

Industry since 1988

Chris Nisbet, CFAPortfolio ManagerIndustry since 1990

Drew Justman, CFAPortfolio ManagerIndustry since 2001

Page 2: Madison Diversified Income Fund Investment Strategy Letters3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/madison-funds/Investment... · 2016-11-21 · recommendation to buy or sell any such security

likely signals headwinds for global economic growth. Additionally, concerns remain about the soundness of the European banks which continue to be much more highly leveraged than in the U.S. and where peripheral countries (Italy, Spain, and Portugal) have been slow to recognize losses. In fact, some estimate that in Italy (the fourth largest economy in Europe), up to 17% of bank loans will not be repaid. Indeed, at quarter-end, European bank stocks continued to fall led by concern at Germany’s largest bank ($1.9 trillion in assets), Deutsche Bank.

Performance Review

The Madison Diversified Income Fund (Class A) returned 1.20% for the third quarter of 2016 compared to the 2.13% return of its Custom Blended Benchmark. For the year-to-date, the fund returned 7.49%, outperforming the Custom Blended Benchmark return of 6.99%.

For the third quarter, the equity portion of the Madison Diversified Income Fund provided positive returns, but underperformed the S&P 500. Sector allocation and stock selection negatively impacted results in the period. For sector allocation, an underweight position in Technology, which was the best performing sector in the S&P 500, hurt relative performance. In terms of stock selection, there were unfavorable results in Financials, Energy, and Industrials, partially offset with positive selections within Consumer Staples. Within Financials, property and casualty company Travelers (TRV) was the most detractive stock in the portfolio. Although there are concerns that insurance pricing is slowing down, we believe TRV continues to execute well and returns cash to shareholders. Other notable underperforming stocks were fast food restaurant McDonald’s (MCD) in Consumer Discretionary and coffee and pet food manufacturer J.M. Smucker (SJM) within Consumer Staples. On the positive side, analog semiconductor firm Linear Technology (LLTC) was the most additive stock in the portfolio as it reached a deal to be acquired by rival Analog Devices (ADI). The fund sold LLTC after the deal was announced. Other notable outperforming stocks included jewelry manufacturer Tiffany and Co. (TIF) in Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staple companies Nestle (NSRGY) and Procter & Gamble (PG). The fund continues to hold all stocks mentioned above except for LLTC.

The fixed income portion of the Madison Diversified Income fund continued to perform well during the third quarter of 2016. For the quarter the fixed income allocation of the fund outperformed the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate, Government and Mortgage Index, bringing outperformance to 53 basis points year-to-date. The fund’s conservative duration posture, relative credit overweight, and mortgage underweight all impacted performance positively. The fund’s credit positioning was aided by an overweight to BBB rated credits and further aided by a small exposure to BB issuers. Furthermore, the fund’s relative underweight to financial issues was additive as financials underperformed late in the quarter when several European banks caused renewed sector concerns. The portfolio’s conservative duration positioning, mostly through underweighting Treasury issues, contributed to performance as rates across the yield curve moved higher post-Brexit.

Outlook

While there continues to be no shortage of issues overseas, economic data in the U.S. point toward growth (albeit modest growth). Wages are accelerating, employment is growing, housing continues to strengthen and credit is expanding. Additionally, the central banks continue to signal an accommodative stance, with the Fed ratcheting down its previous targeted interest rate projections and the Bank of Japan declaring a zero-interest rate for its

madisonfunds.com | madisonadv.com888.971.7135

Page 3: Madison Diversified Income Fund Investment Strategy Letters3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/madison-funds/Investment... · 2016-11-21 · recommendation to buy or sell any such security

madisonfunds.com | madisonadv.com888.971.7135

John Brown Drew JustmanChris NisbetPaul Lefurgey

Russell Investment Group is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Russell Investment Group.

Bonds are subject to certain risks including interest-rate risk, credit risk and inflation risk. As interestrates rise, the prices of bonds fall. Long-term bonds are more exposed to interest-rate risk thanshort-term bonds.

Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that the firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions included in the report constitute the authors’ judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

Madison Funds are distributed by MFD Distributor, LLC. Madison Asset Management, LLC.©October 7, 2016

10-year bond – the first time a central bank has declared a target on a long-term bond. Perhaps the biggest concern remains elevated asset valuations in an uncertain, slow-growth environment. Coupled with increasing populism around the world, we believe the capital markets will continue to be characterized by elevated volatility and more moderate returns. Given this backdrop, we remain cautious and believe that investors will be served well by focusing on lower-risk, higher-quality companies along with shorter duration, higher-quality bonds which should provide a margin of safety as volatile markets persist.

Page 4: Madison Diversified Income Fund Investment Strategy Letters3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/madison-funds/Investment... · 2016-11-21 · recommendation to buy or sell any such security

1 Growth of $10,000 for the years indicated is calculated at NAV and assumes all dividends and capital gain distributions were reinvested. It does not take into account sales charges (see Note 2 below) or the effect of taxes. 2 Average annual total returns and calendar year returns assume all distributions are reinvested and reflect applicable fees and expenses. Class A share returns without sales charge would be lower if sales charge were included. Class A share returns with sales charge reflect the deduction of the maximum applicable sales charge of 5.75%. Class B shares have no up-front sales charge. If redeemed within six years, however, B shares are subject to a maximum contingent deferred sales charge of 4.5%. Class C shares do not have an up-front sales charge. They do, however, carry a 1% contingent deferred sales charge on shares redeemed within 12 months of purchase. Index returns reflect broad measures of market performance compared to the fund and reflect no deduction for sales charges, account fees, expenses or taxes. You cannot invest directly in an index.3 Expense ratios are based on the fund’s most recent prospectus.Custom Blended Index consists of 50% Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Corp. Govt. & Mtg. Index and 50% S&P 500® Index.Performance data shown represents past performance. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that fund shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Past performance does not guarantee future results and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Visit madisonfunds.com or call 800.877.6089 to obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end.

2016201520142013201220112010200920082007

$17,284

$10,000

The Value of Long-Term Investing

Sep 30, 2016

Madison DiversifiedIncome Fund

Gro

wth

of $

10,0

001

Clas

s Y

Shar

es

John Brown,CFA Portfolio Manager Industry since 1983

Paul Lefurgey CFA Head of Fixed Income Industry since 1988

Experienced Management

Drew Justman, CFA Portfolio Manager Industry since 2001

Chris Nisbet, CFA Portfolio Manager Industry since 1990

Fund Features

• High total return by combining income and capital appreciation

• Focus on dividend paying stocks at attractive prices

• Active management of credit risk, sector allocation and yield curve position

• Target: 60% stocks and 40% bonds

Class Ticker Inception Date Exp. Ratio3

A MBLAX 12/29/97 1.10%

B MBLNX 12/29/97 1.85%

C MBLCX 7/31/12 1.85%

Distribution Frequency

Monthly

madisonfunds.com

Risk Measure (10-year) Class A

Standard Deviation 6.8%

Downside Capture 87.1%

Upside Capture 87.6%

Average Annual Total Returns2 (%)Three Months YTD 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 yr Since Inception

Class A without sales charge 1.20 7.49 11.93 6.31 8.75 5.62 5.57

with sales charge -4.63 1.33 5.51 4.23 7.47 5.00 5.24

Class B without sales charge 1.00 6.93 11.10 5.49 7.94 5.00 5.24

with sales charge -3.50 2.43 6.60 4.43 7.64 5.00 5.24

Class C without sales charge 1.01 6.86 11.03 5.49 - - 6.46

with sales charge 0.01 5.86 10.03 5.49 - - 6.46Custom Blended Index (50 Fixed 50 Equity) 2.13 6.99 10.47 7.78 9.76 6.38 -

BofAML Corp/Govt & Mtg. Index 0.42 5.92 5.31 4.17 3.15 4.87 -

S&P 500® Index 3.85 7.84 15.43 11.16 16.37 7.24 -

Calendar Year Returns2 (%) with Downside Performance Highlighted

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Class A -14.55 11.08 12.01 7.37 7.61 15.39 6.78 -0.16

Custom Blended Index -17.53 15.98 11.24 5.30 10.24 13.90 10.05 1.23

Distribution History Class A - Per Share

Year Total Yr-End Nav

2015 $0.57 $14.31

2014 $0.24 $14.92

2013 $0.13 $14.20

2012 $0.16 $12.52

2011 $0.20 $11.88

2010 $0.24 $11.34

Page 5: Madison Diversified Income Fund Investment Strategy Letters3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/madison-funds/Investment... · 2016-11-21 · recommendation to buy or sell any such security

Standard Deviation measures dispersion from an average, which, for a mutual fund, depicts how widely the returns varied over a certain period of time. Higher deviation represents higher volatility. Downside Capture Ratio measures a fund’s performance in down markets relative to its benchmark. It is calculated by taking the security’s downside capture return and dividing it by the benchmark’s downside capture return over the time period. Upside Capture Ratio measures a fund’s performance in up markets relative to its benchmark. It is calculated by taking the security’s upside capture return and dividing it by the benchmark’s upside capture return over the time pe-riod. TTM P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): measures how expensive a stock is. It is calculated by the weighted average of a stock’s current price divided by the company’s trailing 12-month (TTM) earnings per share of the stocks in a fund’s portfolio. P/B (Price-to-Book Ratio): measures a company’s stock price in relation to its book value (the total amount raised if its assets were liquidated and paid back all its liabilities). EPS Growth: the annual rate at which a company’s earnings are expected to grow. ROE (Return on Equity): a profitability ratio that measures the amount of net income returned as a percentage of shareholders equity. Active Share: the percentage of a portfolio that differs from its benchmark index. Active Share can range from 0% for an index fund that perfectly mirrors its benchmark to 100% for a portfolio with no overlap with an index. Dividend Yield: the portfolio’s weighted average of the underlying fund holdings (as of 12/31/2013) and not the yield of the fund. Effective Dura-tion provides a measure of a fund’s interest-rate sensitivity. The longer a fund’s duration, the more sensitive the fund is to shifts in interest rates. Average Maturity is com-puted by weighting the maturity of each security in the portfolio by the market value of the security, then averaging these weighted figures. SEC 30-day Yield represents net investment income earned by a fund over a 30-day period, expressed as an annual percentage rate based on the fund’s share price at the end of the 30-day period. It is calculated based on the standardized formula set forth by the SEC. It is designed to standardize the yield calculation so that all mutual fund companies with the same or similar portfolios use a uniform method to obtain yield figures. 30-day Effective Yield is a hypothetical figure that estimates what the yield would be if an investor continued to reinvest dividends at the current 30-day yield for one year. Calculated by annualizing dividends paid during the last 30 days of the period. It assumes that income earned from the fund’s investments is reinvested and compounded. Portfolio Turnover: a measure of the trading activity in an investment portfolio—how often securities are bought and sold by a portfolio. It is calculated at the fund level and represents the entire fiscal year ending 10/31/2015. Wtd. Avg. Market Cap measures the size of the companies in which the fund invests. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the number of a company’s shares outstanding by its price per share.An investment in the fund is subject to risk and there can be no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The risks associated with an investment in the fund can increase during times of significant market volatility. The principal risks of investing in the fund include: equity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, non-in-vestment grade security risk, option risk, capital gain realization risks to taxpaying shareholders, and foreign security and emerging market risk. Mutual funds that invest in bonds are subject to certain risks including interest rate risk, credit risk, and inflation risk. As interest rates rise, the prices of bonds fall. Long-term bonds are more exposed to interest-rate risk than short-term bonds. Unlike bonds, bond funds have ongoing fees and expenses. More detailed information regarding these risks can be found in the fund’s prospectus.For more complete information about Madison Funds®, including charges and expenses, obtain a prospectus from your financial adviser, by calling 800.877.6089 or by visiting madisonfunds.com and clicking on prospectus and reports to view or download a copy. Before investing in the funds, consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. The prospectus contains this and other information about funds and should be read carefully before investing.

Madison Funds are distributed by MFD Distributor, LLC and may be purchased directly from the fund or through your investment professional. Portfolio data is as of the date of this piece unless otherwise noted and holdings are subject to change. Not FDIC Insured | No Financial Institution Guarantee | May Lose Value

MF-MBLAX-093016madisonfunds.com

Total Net Assets

$157.1 Million

Portfolio Turnover

25%

Total Number of Holdings

232

Equity Characteristics

TTM P/E 19.7x

P/B 3.0x

3yr EPS Growth 5.5%

ROE 22.0%

Active Share 73.3%

Wtd. Avg. Market Cap $143.7

Fixed Characteristics (years)

Effective Duration 4.9

Avg. Maturity 7.8

Yields Class A

30-day SEC Yield 1.30

30-day Effective Yield 1.37

Sector allocation is rounded to the nearest 0.1%.

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cash/OtherTelecom UtilitiesMaterialsInformation Technology

IndustrialsHealth CareFinancialsEnergyConsumer Staples

Consumer Discretionary

S&P 500® Index

12.59.9

7.3

12.814.7

16.3

9.7

21.2

2.9 2.6 3.3

Diversified Income Fund

6.58.3

5.53.0 3.0 3.2

15.815.115.4

7.8

Real Estate

3.1

JOHNSON + JOHNSON 2.3TRAVELERS COS INC/THE 2.3CISCO SYSTEMS INC 2.1PFIZER INC 1.9EXXON MOBIL CORP 1.9MICROSOFT CORP 1.8VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 1.7GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 1.6UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP 1.6SCHLUMBERGER LTD 1.5

Sector Allocation (%)

Top Ten Holdings (%) Portfolio Mix (%)

Shareholder Services Madison Funds Post Office Box 8390 Boston, MA 02266-8390 800.877.6089

Consultant and Advisor Services550 Science DriveMadison, WI 53711 888.971.7135

Stocks 53.6U.S. Treasuries 9.8Corporate Bonds 14.2Mortgage Backed Securities 11.7Cash and Short Term Securities 4.5Asset Backed Securities 2.3Municipal Bonds 3.9