Economy-wide impacts of energy efficiency in Germany

CAPTURING THE MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY Roundtable on Macroeconomic Impacts 24th & 25th January 2013, Paris, France

gwsGesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbHInstitute of Economic Structures ResearchHeinrichstr. 30 °D – 49080 Osnabrück, GermanyTel.: + 49 (541) 40933-280 °Fax: + 49 (541) 40933-110Email: lehr @gws-os.com °Internet: www.gws-os.com

Ulrike Lehr, Christian Lutz

Overview

• Background on modeling energy efficiency and

renewable energy

• PANTA RHEI model

• Scenario design and results for energy efficiency

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gws 2013 GWS mbH

• Conclusions and outlook

Background – what the earlier speakers might not have already mentioned

• We know that energy efficiency is extremely important –

and progressing too slow

• Economics, economic modeling and economic thought face

challenges when trying to capture no-regret potentials,

inefficient factor use and thus energy efficiency issues

• Modeling challenges:

• How can we define efficiency potentials and efficiency

measures?

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gws 2013 GWS mbH

measures?

• How are macro-indicators affected?

• How can we capture special value chains for efficiency

technologies?

The following shows how we dealt with these challenges in a case study for Germany

Model PANTA RHEI

Macroeconomic energy and

environmental model

• Based on official statistics (SNA,

time series of IOT)

• Bottom-up (59 sectors)

• Fully interdependent

• Energy balance systematic

• Parameters econometrically

derived from historical time

series, no neoclassical general

equilibrium

• Supply and demand side features

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• Supply and demand side features

• Open for expert (bottom-up

model) information

Suitable for simulation of direct and

indirect effects

• Esp. counterbalancing effects

• Results are net after all adaption

processes

Reference:Socio-economic and economic-environmental relations of the past will continue in the future

Recent and ongoing applications

PANTA RHEI

� Energy scenarios for the German energy concept (BMWi,

2010)

� Employment impacts of renewable energy in Germany

(BMU, since 2004)

� Energy reference scenario for Germany (BMWi, 2013)

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gws 2013 GWS mbH

Economic part of the model (INFORGE)

� Medium-term labour market forcasts (Federal Labor

Agency, 2010-2014)

� Industry forecasts to support ratings of a large banking

group (since 2007)

� Socio-economic reporting (BMBF, 2009-2012)

PHANTA RHEI – Sectoral focus

� 59 Economic sectors (WZ03):

� employment, value added,

production, imports, exports

� Energy consumption sectors

(following EB systematic):

� Households, 15 industries,

transport, commerce and

service

� Special vector can be added to

2011 2014 2016 2018 2020

Value added; employment; production, import, export

Sector 1

Absolute values or difference to referenceSector 2

Sector 3

≈

Sector n-1Absolute values or difference to reference

Sector n

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gws 2013 GWS mbH

� Special vector can be added to

I/O

� Done for RE

� Survey based

� Third update since 2006

� 13 sectors production of 13

technologies

0 2 4 6 8

A n t e i l a n B P W i n %

1 E r z e u g n i s s e d e r L a n d w i r t s c h a f t u n d J a g d2 F o r s t w i r t s c h a f t l i c h e E r z e u g n i s s e u n d D L3 F i s c h e u n d F i s c h e r e i e r z e u g n i s s e4 K o h l e u n d T o r f5 E r d ö l , E r d g a s , D L f ü r E r d ö l - , E r d g a s g e w i n n u n g6 U r a n - u n d T h o r i u m e r z e7 E r z e 8 S t e i n e u n d E r d e n , s o n s t i g e B e r g b a u e r z e u g n i s s e 9 N a h r u n g s - u n d F u t t e r m i t t e l1 0 G e t r ä n k e1 1 T a b a k e r z e u g n i s s e1 2 T e x t i l i e n1 3 B e k l e i d u n g1 4 L e d e r u n d L e d e r w a r e n1 5 H o l z ; H o l z - , K o r k - , F l e c h t w a r e n ( o h n e M ö b e l )1 6 H o l z s t o f f , Z e l l s t o f f , P a p i e r , K a r t o n u n d P a p p e1 7 P a p i e r - , K a r t o n - u n d P a p p e w a r e n1 8 V e r l a g s e r z e u g n i s s e1 9 D r u c k e r z e u g n i s s e , b e s p i e l t e T o n - , B i l d - u n d D a t e n t r ä g e r2 0 K o k e r e i e r z e u g n i s s e , M i n e r a l ö l e r z e u g n i s s e , S p a l t - u n d B r u t s t o f f e2 1 P h a r m a z e u t i s c h e E r z e u g n i s s e2 2 C h e m i s c h e E r z e u g n i s s e ( o . p h a r m a z e u t i s c h e E r z e u g n i s s e )2 3 G u m m i w a r e n2 4 K u n s t s t o f f w a r e n2 5 G l a s u n d G l a s w a r e n2 6 K e r a m i k , b e a r b e i t e t e S t e i n e u n d E r d e n2 7 R o h e i s e n , S t a h l , R o h r e u n d H a l b z e u g d a r a u s2 8 N E - M e t a l l e u n d H a l b z e u g d a r a u s2 9 G i e ß e r e i e r z e u g n i s s e3 0 M e t a l l e r z e u g n i s s e3 1 M a s c h i n e n3 2 B ü r o m a s c h i n e n , D a t e n v e r a r b e i t u n g s g e r ä t e u . - e i n r i c h t u n g e n3 3 G e r ä t e d e r E l e k t r i z i t ä t s e r z e u g u n g , - v e r t e i l u n g u . ä .3 4 N a c h r t e c h n . , R u n d f . - u n d F e r n s e h g e r ä t e , e l e k t r o n . B a u e l e m e n t e3 5 M e d i z i n - , m e s s - , r e g e l u n g s t e c h n . , o p t i s c h e E r z e u g n i s s e ; U h r e n3 6 K r a f t w a g e n u n d K r a f t w a g e n t e i l e3 7 S o n s t i g e F a h r z e u g e ( W a s s e r - , S c h i e n e n - , L u f t f a h r z e u g e u . a . )3 8 M ö b e l , S c h m u c k , M u s i k i n s t r u m e n t e , S p o r t g e r ä t e , S p i e l w a r e n u . ä .3 9 S e k u n d ä r r o h s t o f f e4 0 E l e k t r i z i t ä t , F e r n w ä r m e , D L d e r E l e k t r i z i t ä t s - u . F e r n w ä r m e v e r s .4 1 G a s e , D L d e r G a s v e r s o r g u n g4 2 W a s s e r u n d D L d e r W a s s e r v e r s o r g u n g4 3 V o r b . B a u s t e l l e n a r b e i t e n , H o c h - u . T i e f b a u a r b e i t e n4 4 B a u i n s t a l l a t i o n s - u n d s o n s t i g e B a u a r b e i t e n4 5 H a n d e l s l e i s t . m i t K f z ; R e p . a n K f z ; T a n k l e i s t u n g e n4 6 H a n d e l s v e r m i t t l u n g s - u n d G r o ß h a n d e l s l e i s t u n g e n4 7 E i n z e l h a n d e l s l e i s t u n g e n ; R e p a r a t u r a n G e b r a u c h s g ü t e r n4 8 B e h e r b e r g u n g s - u n d G a s t s t ä t t e n - D L4 9 E i s e n b a h n - D L5 0 S o n s t . L a n d v . l e i s t u n g e n , T r a n s p o r t l . i n R o h r f e r n l e i t u n g e n5 1 S c h i f f f a h r t s l e i s t u n g e n5 2 L u f t f a h r t l e i s t u n g e n5 3 D L b e z ü g l i c h H i l f s - u . N e b e n t ä t i g k e i t e n f ü r d e n V e r k e h r5 4 N a c h r i c h t e n ü b e r m i t t l u n g s - D L5 5 D L d e r K r e d i t i n s t i t u t e5 6 D L d e r V e r s i c h e r u n g e n ( o h n e S o z i a l v e r s i c h e r u n g )5 7 D L d e s K r e d i t - u n d V e r s i c h e r u n g s h i l f s g e w e r b e s5 8 D L d e s G r u n d s t ü c k s - u n d W o h n u n g s w e s e n s5 9 D L d e r V e r m i e t u n g b e w e g l i c h e r S a c h e n ( o . P e r s o n a l )6 0 D L d e r D a t e n v e r a r b e i t u n g u n d v o n D a t e n b a n k e n6 1 F o r s c h u n g s - u n d E n t w i c k l u n g s l e i s t u n g e n6 2 U n t e r n e h m e n s b e z o g e n e D L6 3 D L d e r ö f f e n t l i c h e n V e r w a l t u n g , V e r t e i d i g u n g6 4 D L d e r S o z i a l v e r s i c h e r u n g6 5 E r z i e h u n g s - u n d U n t e r r i c h t s - D L6 6 D L d e s G e s u n d h e i t s - , V e t e r i n ä r - u n d S o z i a l w e s e n s6 7 A b w a s s e r - , A b f a l l b e s e i t i g u n g s - u . s o n s t . E n t s o r g u n g s l e i s t u n g e n6 8 D L v o n I n t e r e s s e n v e r t r e t u n g e n , K i r c h e n u . ä .6 9 K u l t u r - , S p o r t - u n d U n t e r h a l t u n g s - D L7 0 S o n s t i g e D L 7 1 D L p r i v a t e r H a u s h a l t e

Q u e l l e : S c h ä t z u n g e n d e s D I W B e r l i n . D IW B e r l i n

E r n e u e r b a r e E n e r g i e n

Implementation of efficiency measures

� Energy part (other institutes: Ifeu, Prognos, FhG-ISI):

• Bottom-up models for energy demand (see next slide)

• Specification of 43 (clusters of) measures

• Differences in energy volumes and prices and related

cost/investment as primary impulses

� Translation of primary impulses into the macro model

• Find the right elements in the IO data (59 industries) and

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Find the right elements in the IO data (59 industries) and

the energy balance (30 energy carriers, 68 rows)

• Consistent linkage of IO and EB

CPA 1).. 01 02 05 10 11 12 13 14 15.1 - 15.8 15.9 16 17Lfd.Nr. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Gütergruppen (Zeile 1 bis 71):1 01 Erzeugnisse der Landwirtschaft und Jagd........................................................... 7 627 190 - 11 - - - - 31 657 614 375 188 2 02 Forstwirtschaftliche Erzeugnisse und DL........................................................... 83 885 - 6 16 - - 21 - - - - 3 05 Fische und Fischereierzeugnisse........................................................................... - - 52 - - - - - 248 - - - 4 10 Kohle und Torf............................................................................................................... 35 - - 570 - - - 21 39 5 2 14 5 11 Erdöl, Erdgas, DL für Erdö l-, Erdgasgewinnung................................................ 53 - - - 420 - - 35 450 32 1 71 6 12 Uran- und Thoriumerze............................................................................................... - - - - - - - - - - - - 7 13 Erze .................................................................................................................................... - - - - - - - - - - - - 8 14 Steine und Erden, so nstige Bergbauerzeugnisse ........................................... 343 4 1 5 - - - 1 512 195 - - - 9 15.1 - 15.8 Nahrungs- und Futtermittel....................................................................................... 4 448 - - - - - - - 29 310 1 259 1 22

10 15.9 Getränke........................................................................................................................... 1 - - - - - - - 178 1 556 - - 11 16 Tabakerzeugnisse........................................................................................................ - - - - - - - - - - 38 - 12 17 Textilien............................................................................................................................. 25 2 50 - - - - - 24 3 1 3 213 13 18 Bekleidung....................................................................................................................... 5 8 - 3 - - - 1 9 1 - 1 14 19 Leder und Lederwaren................................................................................................. 21 1 - 5 1 - - 7 - - - 2 15 20 Holz; Ho lz-, Ko rk-, Flechtwaren (ohne M öbel).................................................. 100 7 1 28 1 - - 21 139 77 17 12 16 21.1 Holzstoff, Zellstoff, Papier, Karton und Pappe................................................ 17 1 - 5 - - - 20 157 23 14 40 17 21.2 Papier-, Karto n- und Pappewaren.......................................................................... 19 3 - 7 9 - - 115 1 985 270 139 157 18 22.1 Verlagserzeugnisse...................................................................................................... 10 5 - 3 - - - 5 55 14 9 8 19 22.2 - 22.3 Druckerzeugnisse, bespielte To n-, B ild- und Datenträger............................ 31 6 1 12 1 - - 17 160 51 6 75 20 23 Kokereierzeugnisse, M ineralö lerzeugnisse, Spalt- und Brutstoffe.......... 1 173 53 9 27 - - - 133 567 125 6 50 21 24.4 Pharmazeutische Erzeugnisse................................................................................ 480 - - - - - - - 23 19 - - 22 24 (ohne 24.4) Chemische Erzeugnisse (ohne pharmazeutische Erzeugnisse)................ 2 768 40 2 75 7 - - 72 1 284 334 18 2 538 23 25.1 Gummiwaren................................................................................................................... 126 5 - 64 - - - 11 71 13 1 13 24 25.2 Kunststoffwaren............................................................................................................ 102 6 - 36 1 - - 5 1 493 587 17 114 25 26.1 Glas und Glaswaren..................................................................................................... 181 - - 24 - - - 2 374 348 - - 26 26.2 - 26.8 Keramik, bearbeitete Steine und Erden................................................................ 240 23 - 36 - - - 15 - - - 182 27 27.1. - 27.3 Roheisen, Stahl, Rohre und Halbzeug daraus................................................... 36 4 - 173 79 - - 49 59 6 - - 28 27.4 NE-M etalle und Halbzeug daraus........................................................................... 4 - - 23 1 - - 3 31 4 2 - 29 27.5 Gießereierzeugnisse.................................................................................................... 45 - - 13 - - - 2 - 5 - - 30 28 M etallerzeugnisse........................................................................................................ 386 43 5 464 95 - - 108 751 300 2 39 31 29 M aschinen....................................................................................................................... 1 017 87 2 868 148 - - 160 953 144 21 238 32 30 Büromaschinen, Datenverarbeitungsgeräte und -einrichtungen............... 4 - - 2 1 - - 10 55 16 1 5 33 31 Geräte der Elektrizitätserzeugung, -verteilung u.Ä........................................... 54 7 - 36 21 - - 18 50 6 2 12 34 32 Nachrtechn., Rundf.- und Fernsehgeräte, elektron. Bauelemente............ - - - - - - - - - - - - 35 33 M edizin-, mess-, regelungstechn., optische Erzeugnisse; Uhren............... 4 - - - 1 - - 12 71 17 - 1 36 34 Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteile.............................................................................. 207 4 - 26 - - - 19 69 26 - - 37 35 Sonstige Fahrzeuge (Wasser-, Schienen-, Luftfahrzeuge u.a.)................... - - - - - - - - - - - - 38 36 M öbel, Schmuck, M usikinstrumente, Sportgeräte, Spielwaren u.Ä......... 1 - - - - - - 2 1 1 - 1 39 37 Sekundärro hstoffe....................................................................................................... - - - - - - - - - - - 19 40 40.1, 40.3 Elektrizität, Fernwärme, DL der Elektrizitäts- u. Fernwärmeversorgung. 625 5 5 425 52 - - 345 1 743 254 29 461 41 40.2 Gase, DL der Gasversorgung.................................................................................. 57 - - 17 - - - 36 436 111 5 85 42 41 Wasser und DL der Wasserversorgung............................................................... 327 1 1 31 - - - 35 343 112 4 34 43 45.1 - 45.2 Vorb. Baustellenarbeiten, Hoch- und Tiefbauarbeiten................................... 113 18 2 65 6 - - 27 127 38 1 22 44 45.3 - 45.5 Bauinstallatio ns- und sonstige Bauarbeiten..................................................... 124 14 3 76 1 - - 14 200 63 4 38 45 50 Handelsleist. mit Kfz; Rep. an Kfz; Tankleistungen.......................................... 431 17 2 7 1 - - 55 246 41 3 15 46 51 Handelsvermittlungs- und Großhandelsleistungen........................................ 2 473 111 21 223 35 - - 118 8 041 676 52 509 47 52 Einzelhandelsleistungen; Reparatur an Gebrauchsgütern............................ 93 9 5 30 - - - 12 1 481 85 6 95 48 55 Beherbergungs- und Gaststätten-DL................................................................... 2 2 1 14 5 - - 1 28 6 1 9 49 60.1 Eisenbahn-DL................................................................................................................. 2 4 - 1 92 - - 51 1 1 - 1

1.1 Input-Output-Tabelle 2007 zu Herstellungspreis en Inländische Produktion und Importe Mill. EUR

Erzg. v.Pro dukten

derLand-

wirtschaftund Jagd

Lfd.Nr.

CPA 1)

Gew. v.Uran-und

Thorium-erzen

Input der Pro duktionsbereiche2)

Erzg. v.Produkten

derFischerei

undFischzucht

Gew. v.KohleundTo rf

Input der Produktionsbereiche2)

H.v.Nahrungs-

undFutter-mitteln

H.v.Tabak-waren

Erzg. v.Pro-

duktender

Forst-wirtschaft

Gew. v.Erdö l,

Erdgas,Erbring.diesbez.

DL

H.v.Getränken

Gew. v.Erzen

H.v.Textilien

Gew. v.Steinen und

Erden,sonstigen

Bergbauer-zeugn.

Verwendung

Aufko mmen

Energiebilanz der Bundesrepublik Zeile Steinkohlen Braunkohlen Mineralöle Deutschland 2008T Joule

Kohle Briketts Koks Andere Kohle Briketts Andere Hart- Erdöl Otto-Stein- Braun- braun- (roh) kraft

kohlen- kohlen- kohle stoffeprodukte produkte

Gewinnung im Inland 1 521 002 - - - 1 576 414 - - - 131 119 -Einfuhr 2 1 200 499 785 124 570 38 436 - 1 172 1 114 459 4 515 225 70 829Bestandsentnahmen 3 - - - - - 352 234 - - 18 790Energieaufkommen im Inland 4 1 721 502 785 124 570 38 436 1 576 414 1 524 1 348 459 4 646 344 89 619Ausfuhr 5 15 603 - 4 785 45 985 147 6 887 17 457 - 5 797 250 437Hochseebunkerungen 6 - - - - - - - - - -Bestandsaufstockungen 7 17 438 - 1 318 - 909 - - - 28 828 -PRIMÄRENERGIEVERBRAUCH IM INLAND 8 1 688 461 785 118 468 - 7 549 1 575 359 - 5 363 - 16 109 459 4 611 719 - 160 818Kokereien 9 300 466 - - - 5 886 - - - - -Stein- und Braunkohlenbrikettfabriken 10 - - - - 118 861 - - - - -Wärmekraftwerke der allg. Versorgung 11 997 295 - - - 1 378 633 117 10 497 33 - -Industriewärmekraftwerke (nur für Strom) 12 85 827 - - - 20 867 2 156 3 938 - - -Kernkraftwerke 13 - - - - - - - - - -Wasser-, Windkraft-, Photovoltaik- u.a. Anlagen 14 - - - - - - - - - -Heizkraftwerke der allg. Versorgung 15 106 195 - - - 34 164 371 3 982 410 - -Fernheizwerke 16 19 575 - 229 - 2 299 20 1 270 16 - -Hochöfen 17 - - 171 405 - - - - - - -Raffinerien 18 - - - - - - - - 4 611 719 117 859Sonstige Energieerzeuger 19 - - - 7 755 - - - - - -Umwandlungseinsatz insgesamt 20 1 509 357 - 171 634 7 755 1 560 710 2 664 19 687 459 4 611 719 117 859Kokereien 21 - - 236 248 9 386 - - 5 308 - - -Stein- und Braunkohlenbrikettfabriken 22 - - - - - 32 005 89 449 - - -Wärmekraftwerke der allg. Versorgung 23 - - - - - - - - - -Industriewärmekraftwerke (nur für Strom) 24 - - - - - - - - - -Kernkraftwerke 25 - - - - - - - - - -Wasser-, Windkraft-, Photovoltaik- u.a. Anlagen 26 - - - - - - - - - -Heizkraftwerke der allg. Versorgung 27 - - - - - - - - - -Fernheizwerke 28 - - - - - - - - - -Hochöfen 29 - - - - - - - - - -Raffinerien 30 - - - - - - - - - 1 000 552Sonstige Energieerzeuger 31 - - - 7 106 - - - - - 147 166Umwandlungsausstoß insgesamt 32 - - 236 248 16 492 - 32 005 94 757 - - 1 147 718Kokereien 33 - - - - - - - - - -Steinkohlenzechen, -brikettfabriken 34 30 - - - - - - - - -Braunkohlengruben, -brikettfabriken 35 - - - - 8 979 147 414 - - -Kraftwerke 36 - - - - - - - - - -Erdöl- und Erdgasgewinnung 37 - - - - - - - - - -Raffinerien 38 - - - - - - - - - -

13 bill. € Savings compared to reference by 2020 PJ

Sum (% of final energy consumption in the sector) 212 (8.1%)

Motors 101

The Efficiency scenario - example: industry

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101

Optimal pneumatic systems 15

Optimal pump systems 17

Optimal vent systems 14

Optimal cooling systems 3

Optimal other systems 45

Efficient lighting 13

Efficient vapor 24

Efficient drying 29

Efficient industrial ovens 40

Efficient caloric value heat (natural gas) 5

Additional potential from specific technologies 1)ca. 150

1) Fraunhofer ISI (2001) and Prognos (2007); Source: ifeu/ISI/Prognos/GWS 2009

Technological Potential

• Potential for energy saving with market best products

Economic (no-regret potential)

• Potential for energy saving with products with payback

periods within the lifespan of the product

• Much longer payback periods compared to usual

calculations in companies

Limits and boundaries (1/2)

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calculations in companies

Technological potential

Payback period 4 -8 years

No-regret

Limits and boundaries (2/2)

� Scenario analysis: comparison of an efficiency scenario

with reference

� “Ambitious Efficiency” scenario

• No–regret measures

• Cost-effective over the lifetime of equipment

• Additional investment (no crowding out)

• Based on detailed bottom-up studies

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� depreciation, annual allowances and savings reductions

to finance the investment fully included

� Energy savings fully accounted for in the model

Investment until 2030 in

billion Euro

Total 301

Private households 120

Tertiary sector 54

Industry 8

Transport 120

Ifeu et al. (2011, p. 22).

Final energy demand in different scenarios

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Additional investment and energy costs for reference

and „ambitious efficiency“

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Economic impacts

Absolute values Percentage differenceEfficiency- Ref 2011 2014 2016 2018 2020 2011 2014 2016 2018 2020

GDP components

GDP 6,4 8,8 12,8 15,2 17,8 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7

Private consumption 2,0 4,7 6,6 8,5 10,6 0,2 0,4 0,5 0,7 0,8

Gov't consumption 0,1 -0,1 0,0 -0,1 -0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Investment 3,6 3,6 4,2 4,7 5,7 1,4 1,3 1,5 1,7 1,9

Buildings 3,0 3,1 5,1 5,2 5,1 1,4 1,4 2,4 2,5 2,5

Exports 0,1 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Imports 2,4 2,7 3,3 3,5 3,9 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3

Difference in bil. Euro

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Imports 2,4 2,7 3,3 3,5 3,9 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3

Prices

Private consumption -0,04 -0,10 -0,14 -0,18 -0,22 -0,04 -0,08 -0,12 -0,15 -0,18

Production -0,05 -0,06 -0,07 -0,07 -0,07 -0,05 -0,05 -0,06 -0,06 -0,06

Imports -0,07 -0,16 -0,23 -0,30 -0,39 -0,07 -0,16 -0,22 -0,29 -0,36

Labor market

Employment 67 79 110 120 128 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3

Difference in percentage points

Absolute difference

Macroeconomic results (ambitious efficiency against

reference)

� Higher GDP and more jobs (+127.000 in 2030)

• Additional investment yields additional production and

therefore additional employment,

• Energy is replaced by capital,

• Imports (e.g. crude oil, gas) are replaced by domestic value

added,

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added,

• Construction, trade and services are more labor intensive

than the energy industry (industry structure matters),

• Energy efficiency improves economic productivity and thus

competitiveness on fast growing markets,

• Rebound effects are small

2010 2015 2020 Rebound

FEC 108 418 693

Private households [PJ] 25 115 219 13%

Tertiary sector [PJ] 8 32 59 13%

Industry [PJ] 19 123 197 11%

Transport [PJ] 57 148 219 27%

Energy savings, emissions and rebound

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Transport [PJ] 57 148 219 27%

TPES [PJ] 162 629 1.027

Electricity production [PJ] 39 151 245

CO2-Emissions [Mio. t] 13,9 49,8 76,6

Oil [TJ] 67 189 287

Natural gas [TJ] 26 165 321

Import savings [Bill. €] 0,8 3,2 6,2

Source: Own Calcuations by GWSmbH

4. Conclusions

Implementation of “no-regret” energy efficiency measures

will yield a double dividend of less emissions / energy use and

more jobs:

• Positive macroeconomic net impacts

• Additional potential for exports

• How to overcome barriers for efficiency improvement?

Important for results:

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Important for results:

• Interdependent modeling of economy and energy,

based on observed behavior

• Specification of efficiency measures (based on expert

judgment or bottom-up model)

• Existence of no-regret options contradicts assumptions of

microeconomic optimization and (ideal) general equilibrium

Thank you for your attention!

Contact:Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) mbHInstitute of Economic Structures ResearchHeinrichstrasse 3049080 Osnabrück

gws

49080 OsnabrückGermany

Dr. Ulrike LehrTel. +49 541 40933 280lehr@gws-os.com

References

� More on PANTA RHEI:http://www.gws-

os.com/discussionpapers/documentation/PantaRhei_19thInforumConferencePublication.pdf

� More on the development / extension of I/O vector:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512003928

� More on efficiency:

18

gws 2013 GWS mbH

More on efficiency:http://www.gws-os.com/discussionpapers/gws-paper11-2.pdf