Macroeconomics Chapter 81 An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model C h a p t e r 8

Macroeconomics Chapter 8 1

An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model

C h a p t e r 8


Cyclical Behavior of Real GDP—Recessions and Booms

Real GDP = trend real GDP + cyclical part of real GDP

Cyclical part of real GDP Coming from the business cycle Short-term economic fluctuations.











Conceptual Issues Assuming that these fluctuations reflect

shocks to the economy. Change in level of technology

Y= A· F( K, L) An increase in A means that the economy

is more productive. A decrease in A means that the economy

is less productive.



Uses equilibrium conditions to determine how the shocks affect real GDP, Y, and other macroeconomic variables, such as consumption, C, investment, I, and the quantity of labor input, L.

RBC model Finn Kydland & Edward Prescott

（ 2004 Nobel Laureates ）



The Model Y= A· F( K, L)

the capital stock, K, as fixed in the short run,

the labor input, L, is fixed. Changes in Y will reflect only changes

in A. When A rises, Y rises, When A falls, Y falls.



The Model The marginal product of labor and the

real wage rate An increase in the technology level, A,

raises the marginal product of labor, MPL, for given inputs of capital, K, and labor, L.







The Model Marginal product of capital, real rental

price, and the interest rate An increase in the technology level, A,

raises the marginal product of capital, MPK, for given inputs of capital, K, and labor, L







Marginal product of capital, real rental price, and the interest rate

i = R/P − δ i = MPK(evaluated at given K and L) − δ

The model predicts that an economic boom will have a relatively high interest rate, whereas a recession will have a relatively low interest rate.



Consumption, saving, and investment Aggregate household budget constraint

Given the markets for bonds, labor, and capital services clear:

C + ∆K = Y − δ K



C+ ∆K = A · F( K, L) −δ K depreciation, δK, is fixed in the short

run, An increase in A raises real GDP for

given K and L, we see that a rise in A raises overall real income.



Consumption, saving, and investment income effect ： The increase in real income motivates households to raise current consumption and future consumption. Intertemporal-substitution effect ： The increase in the interest rate tends to reduce current consumption.

The net change depends on whether the income effect is stronger or weaker than the intertemporal-substitution effect.



Consumption, saving, and investment Assume that the change in A is permanent.

the increases in real income tend also to be permanent.

The propensity to consume out of higher income would be close to one.

When the increase in A is permanent, current consumption will rise. However, as long as the intertemporal-substitution operates at all, the increase in current consumption will be less than the increase in real GDP.



Consumption, saving, and investment

Since current consumption, C, rises, but by less than the increase in real GDP, Y. Therefore, net investment, ∆K, must increase - the increase in real GDP shows up partly as more C and partly as more K.

Since net investment, ∆K, equals real saving, this result is consistent with our finding that real saving increased.


Matching the Theory with the Facts

Consumption and Investment When a variable fluctuates in the same

direction as real GDP that variable is procyclical.

A procyclical variable moves in the same direction as the business cycle—it tends to be high relative to its trend in a boom and low relative to its trend in a recession.



Consumption and Investment A variable that fluctuates in the

opposite direction from real GDP is countercyclical.

One that has little tendency to move in a particular direction during a business cycle is acyclical.



相关系数0.88



相关系数0.92



消费和投资都是顺周期变量。

实际消费的波动幅度大于实际 GDP 的波动；而投资的波动比 GDP 的大很多。



The Real Wage Rate The model predicts that the real wage

rate, w/P, will be relatively high in booms and relatively low in recessions.



相关系数0.58



The Real Rental Price The model predicts that the real rental

price of capital, R/P, will be relatively high in booms and relatively low in recessions.



相关系数0.52



The Interest Rate The model predicts that booms will

have a high interest rate, i, whereas recessions will have a low interest rate.


Temporary Changes in the Technology Level

A decrease in A due to a harvest failure or a general strike would be temporary.

To allow for these cases, we now assume that the change in A is temporary.


Temporary Changes in the Technology Level If A increases temporarily, real GDP, A · F

(K, L), still rises for fixed values of K and L.

The marginal product of capital, MPK, and the interest rate, i, also rise as before.

The intertemporal-substitution effect from the higher i still motivates households to reduce current consumption, C, and raise current real saving.


Temporary Changes in the Technology Level

The model therefore predicts that economic boom would feature high real GDP and investment. Consumption would rise by a small amount.

A recession would have low real GDP and investment. Consumption would decline by a modest amount.


Variations in Labor Input

Labor Supply More labor supplied means less leisure

time for the family. Assume that households also like more

leisure time. As with consumption and saving, the

choice of Ls involves substitution and income effects.



tc ,

max ,1

. .t

t t tl

t t t

u u c l

s t c w l

wlLS



C

1-L

？

？



The substitution effect for leisure and consumption

A higher real wage rate, w/P, raises the quantity of labor supplied, Ls



Income effects on labor supply A higher w/P means higher real wage

income, (w/P)· Ls Household spends the extra income on

consumption and leisure time. A higher w/P leads to a smaller quantity

of labor supplied, Ls.



Income effects on labor supply Resolve the ambiguity by considering

whether the income effect is strong or weak

C1 + C2/(1+i1) + C3/[( 1+i1)·(1+i2) ] + · · ·

= (1 + i0)·(B0/P+K0) +

(w/P)1·Ls1+(w/P)2·Ls

2/(1+i1) +

(w/P)3·Ls3 /[(1+i1)·(1+i2)]+ · · ·



Income effects on labor supply A permanent increase in real wage

rates results in a large income effect. If the change in year 1’s real wage rate,

(w/P)1, is temporary, the income effect is small.

The income effect will be weaker than the substitution effect.



Intertemporal-substitution effects on labor supply

C1 + C2/(1+i1) + C3/[( 1+i1)·(1+i2) ] + · · ·

= ( 1 + i0)·(B0/P+K0) +

(w/P)1·Ls1+(w/P)2·Ls

2/(1+i1) +

(w/P)3·Ls3 /[(1+i1)·(1+i2)]

+ · · ·



Intertemporal-substitution effects on labor supply. If i1 rises, a unit of year2’s real wage

income, (w/P)2·Ls2, becomes less valuable

as a present value compared to a unit of year1’s real wage income, (w/P)1·Ls

1.

The household would increase Ls1 and

decrease Ls2 as the interest rate

increases.



用数字说话：劳动供给的跨期替代效应的实证

Alogoskoufis(1987b)

Mulligan (1995) 的两个“自然实验”





The cyclical behavior of labor input: theory Increase in A will lead to:

The real wage rate increases Labor inputs increase.



Fluctuations in Labor Input Measures of labor input are procyclical:

they move in the same direction as real GDP during booms and recessions.

Employment Total hours worked



相关系数0.81



相关系数0.88



The cyclical behavior of labor productivity Measures of labor productivity,

Y/L, is real GDP per worker, Real GDP per worker-hour.

Labor productivity turns out to be procyclical in both cases.


Extra ： labor supply model

For simplicity: the household has only one member and he lives only for one period and has no initial wealth.

FOC:

ttt

tttl

lwcts

blbcut

..

01lnlnmax,c t

cwllbcL 1lnln

01

c

01

wl

b



Intuition: In one period, the income and substitution

effects of a change in the wage offset each other.

bl

1

1*



212211

2211

1

1

1

1

1lnln1

11lnln

cr

clwr

lw

lbclbcL

01)1(

10

1

21

rcc

01

1

)1)(1(0

1 22

11

wrl

bw

l

b

Two periods:

FOC:



1

2

1 2

2 1

1,

1

1 1

1 1

c

c r

l w

l r w

Intuition: intertemporal substitution in labor supply

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Macroeconomics Chapter 81 An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model C h a p t e r 8