Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis: Challenges Ahead and Statistical Initiatives at the IMF Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis:

Macroeconomic Statistics and Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis: Challenges the Current Crisis: Challenges

Ahead and Statistical Initiatives Ahead and Statistical Initiatives at the IMFat the IMF

Alfredo M. LeoneAlfredo M. Leone

Deputy Director, Statistics DepartmentDeputy Director, Statistics Department

Meeting of the OECD Short-term Economic Meeting of the OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Expert Group (STESEG)Statistics Expert Group (STESEG)

Paris, September 10-11, 2009Paris, September 10-11, 2009

22

Two Key Issues Highlighted Two Key Issues Highlighted by the Current Crisis by the Current Crisis

The integration of economies and The integration of economies and markets, as evidenced by the financial markets, as evidenced by the financial crisis spreading worldwide.crisis spreading worldwide.

The growth of systemically important The growth of systemically important global financial institutions (SIGFIs), global financial institutions (SIGFIs), which spread across many markets which spread across many markets worldwide.worldwide.

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Key Statistical Implications Key Statistical Implications of the Current Crisis of the Current Crisis

The critical importance of relevant statistics that are The critical importance of relevant statistics that are timely, consistent, and comparable across countries.timely, consistent, and comparable across countries.

Additional statistical needs for financial stability Additional statistical needs for financial stability analysis. analysis.

The difficulty, and the importance, of sound indicators The difficulty, and the importance, of sound indicators of the degree and location of leverage or excessive of the degree and location of leverage or excessive risk-taking. risk-taking.

The need to improve the communication of official The need to improve the communication of official statistics. statistics.

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Macroeconomic Statistics: Macroeconomic Statistics: Challenges AheadChallenges Ahead

Five key areas:Five key areas: Sectoral balance sheet dataSectoral balance sheet data

Improving availability, timeliness, frequency, and Improving availability, timeliness, frequency, and coverage of sectoral assets and liabilitiescoverage of sectoral assets and liabilities

Public sectorPublic sector Accounting for government intervention in response Accounting for government intervention in response

to the crisis (including contingent liabilities)to the crisis (including contingent liabilities) Ultimate risk and credit risk transferUltimate risk and credit risk transfer

Capturing assets and liabilities of special purpose Capturing assets and liabilities of special purpose entities and off-balance sheet positionsentities and off-balance sheet positions

Housing marketsHousing markets Improving availability of housing-related data and Improving availability of housing-related data and

making data cross-country comparablemaking data cross-country comparable Macroprudential risksMacroprudential risks

Improving indicators of financial soundness, Improving indicators of financial soundness, including measures of leverage and liquidityincluding measures of leverage and liquidity

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A Balance Sheet Approach’s View of the A Balance Sheet Approach’s View of the GapsGaps

Creditor Creditor

Debtor Debtor

Central Central BankBank

General General GovernmentGovernment

Other Dep. Other Dep. CorporationsCorporations

Other Finan. Other Finan. CorporationsCorporations

Non-financial Non-financial CorporationsCorporations

Other Other ResidentsResidents

NonresidentNonresidentss

I. Central BankI. Central Bank

Total Total LiabilitiesLiabilities

Short-termShort-term

Domestic Domestic CurrCurr

Foreign Foreign CurrCurr

M-& Long-M-& Long-termterm

Domestic Domestic CurrCurr

Foreign Foreign CurrCurr

EquityEquity

SRFSRF

Central Bank Central Bank LiabilitiesLiabilities

SRFSRF


SRFSRF


SRFSRF


SRFSRF


SRFSRF


IIPIIP

CPISCPIS

II. General II. General Gov.Gov.

SRF: Central SRF: Central Bank AssetsBank Assets

SRF: ODCs SRF: ODCs AssetsAssets

SRF: OFCs SRF: OFCs AssetsAssets

IIPIIP

QEDSQEDS

III. Other Dep. III. Other Dep. Corporations Corporations (ODCs)(ODCs)


SRF: ODCs SRF: ODCs LiabilitiesLiabilities





IIP/QEDSIIP/QEDS

IV. Other IV. Other Finan. Finan. Corporations Corporations (OFCs)(OFCs)


SRF: OFCs SRF: OFCs Liab.Liab.

SRF: OFCs SRF: OFCs LiabilitiesLiabilities

SRF: OFCs SRF: OFCs LiabLiab

SRF: OFCs SRF: OFCs LiabLiab

SRF: OFCs SRF: OFCs LiabilitiesLiabilities

IIP/QEDSIIP/QEDS

V. V. Nonfinancial Nonfinancial Corporations Corporations (NFs)(NFs)

SRF: Central SRF: Central Bank AssetBank Asset



IIPIIP

QEDSQEDS

JEDHJEDH

VI. Other VI. Other ResidentsResidents

SRF : SRF : Central Central Bank AssetsBank Assets



IIPIIP

CPISCPIS

NonresidentsNonresidents SRF: Central SRF: Central Bank AssetsBank Assets

IIP/CPISIIP/CPIS

IIPIIP

CPISCPISSRF: ODCs SRF: ODCs AssetsAssets

IIPIIP

CPISCPIS


IIP/CPISIIP/CPIS

IIPIIP

CPISCPISIIPIIP

CPISCPIS

Incomplete

Incomplete

Incomplete

Incomplete

N/A

N/A

Off-Balance N/ASheet Items

Limited country coverage






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Data GapsData Gaps Timeliness (reporting/disseminating lags)Timeliness (reporting/disseminating lags) Frequency (low periodicity of data)Frequency (low periodicity of data) CoverageCoverage

Country coverageCountry coverage Off-balance sheet positions and special purpose vehicles Off-balance sheet positions and special purpose vehicles

(ultimate risk)(ultimate risk) Shadow financial systemShadow financial system Exposures to complex structured products (credit risk Exposures to complex structured products (credit risk

transfer)transfer) Cross-border counterparty exposuresCross-border counterparty exposures Definition/coverage of government sectorDefinition/coverage of government sector Nonfinancial corporate and households sectorsNonfinancial corporate and households sectors Remaining maturity of outstanding liabilitiesRemaining maturity of outstanding liabilities Nonfinancial assets (housing-related data)Nonfinancial assets (housing-related data)

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New Initiatives (1)New Initiatives (1) Addressing data gaps:Addressing data gaps:

Establishment of the Establishment of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial StatisticsFinancial Statistics, IAG (2008), IAG (2008)

BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF (Chair), OECD, UN, WBBIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF (Chair), OECD, UN, WB Coordinate work to explore data gaps and strengthen data Coordinate work to explore data gaps and strengthen data

collectioncollection G-20 Working Group on Reinforcing International Co-G-20 Working Group on Reinforcing International Co-

operation and Promoting Integrity in Financial Marketsoperation and Promoting Integrity in Financial Markets Asked the IMF and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to Asked the IMF and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to

explore gaps and provide proposals to address them to the explore gaps and provide proposals to address them to the next meeting of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank next meeting of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (late 2009)Governors (late 2009)

IMFC (IMF Governing Body) welcomed the work of the IMF and IMFC (IMF Governing Body) welcomed the work of the IMF and FSB to provide better indicators of systemic risks and address FSB to provide better indicators of systemic risks and address data gapsdata gaps

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New Initiatives (2)New Initiatives (2) Improving communication of official statisticsImproving communication of official statistics

IAG launched common public online website IAG launched common public online website (April 2009): the (April 2009): the Principal Global IndicatorsPrincipal Global Indicators which displays for G-20 economies:which displays for G-20 economies: Predetermined tables of statisticsPredetermined tables of statistics Cross-country datasetsCross-country datasets Links to national websites of central banks, Links to national websites of central banks,

regulatory agencies, and statistical officesregulatory agencies, and statistical offices Links to the SDDS National Summary pageLinks to the SDDS National Summary page Links to websites of the IAG agenciesLinks to websites of the IAG agencies

99

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Statistical Initiatives at the IMF Statistical Initiatives at the IMF (1)(1)

Further implementation of standardized report Further implementation of standardized report forms (SRFs) to enhance the Balance Sheet forms (SRFs) to enhance the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA): Approach (BSA): Assistance to countries, including G-20 economies, in Assistance to countries, including G-20 economies, in

the adoption of SRFs, leading to inclusion of SRF-the adoption of SRFs, leading to inclusion of SRF-based monetary data for more countries in the based monetary data for more countries in the International Financial Statistics. International Financial Statistics.

More comprehensive coverage of depository More comprehensive coverage of depository institutions than is currently the case. institutions than is currently the case.

Improving reporting data for other financial Improving reporting data for other financial corporations (OFCs), a sector widely held responsible corporations (OFCs), a sector widely held responsible for a leading role in many countries in the current for a leading role in many countries in the current financial crisis. financial crisis.

At the moment, the number of countries reporting At the moment, the number of countries reporting data on OFCs is relatively small, about 30 out of 115 data on OFCs is relatively small, about 30 out of 115 SRF-reporting countries. SRF-reporting countries.

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Regular compilation and dissemination of Financial Regular compilation and dissemination of Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), a complement to the Soundness Indicators (FSIs), a complement to the BSA in enhancing vulnerability and financial BSA in enhancing vulnerability and financial stability analysisstability analysis http://fsi.imf.org/http://fsi.imf.org/ FSIs include indicators of the health of entire FSIs include indicators of the health of entire

sectors of financial institutions, but also of the sectors of financial institutions, but also of the counterpart corporate and household sectors, counterpart corporate and household sectors, and of relevant markets. and of relevant markets.

FSIs, conceived as a new area of statistics—FSIs, conceived as a new area of statistics—macroprudential statistics—aims to fill the gap macroprudential statistics—aims to fill the gap between macroeconomic statistics and micro-between macroeconomic statistics and micro-prudential data. prudential data.

http://fsi.imf.org/

1212


Development of a conceptual framework for the Development of a conceptual framework for the compilation and presentation of debt securities compilation and presentation of debt securities (issuance and holdings) with the BIS, ECB, and (issuance and holdings) with the BIS, ECB, and the WB (Working Group on Securities Databases)the WB (Working Group on Securities Databases) http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/wgsd/index.http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/wgsd/index.

htmhtm Preparation of a Preparation of a Handbook on Securities Handbook on Securities

StatisticsStatistics In part one of the In part one of the HandbookHandbook, the conceptual , the conceptual

framework covers position and flow statistics framework covers position and flow statistics on debt securities issues. on debt securities issues.

Part two, in preparation, will focus on debt Part two, in preparation, will focus on debt securities holdings.securities holdings.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/wgsd/index.htm

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/wgsd/index.htm

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Promotion of high-frequency (quarterly) Promotion of high-frequency (quarterly) general government sector data on a general government sector data on a harmonized basisharmonized basis

Increasing levels of deficits and debts as a result Increasing levels of deficits and debts as a result of the crisis are generating increasing interest in of the crisis are generating increasing interest in fiscal data over the next years. fiscal data over the next years.

STA will also continue working to raise STA will also continue working to raise awareness for data quality in GFS to ensure awareness for data quality in GFS to ensure proper definitions and facilitate country proper definitions and facilitate country comparability. comparability.

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Development of Development of Public Sector Debt GuidePublic Sector Debt Guide for the for the collection and dissemination of public sector debt collection and dissemination of public sector debt statistics.statistics.

Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS) project:Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS) project:

Proceed with a survey to improve the quality of Proceed with a survey to improve the quality of Foreign Direct Investment data at global and Foreign Direct Investment data at global and bilateral levels.bilateral levels.

Establish a comprehensive database of direct Establish a comprehensive database of direct investment positions (as of the end of 2009), investment positions (as of the end of 2009), disaggregated by instrument (equity and debt) and disaggregated by instrument (equity and debt) and by counterpart economy of the immediate investor.by counterpart economy of the immediate investor.

More than 130 economies have already expressed More than 130 economies have already expressed an interest in participating in the survey. an interest in participating in the survey.

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Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

History has demonstrated that crises create new History has demonstrated that crises create new demands for financial and economic datademands for financial and economic data this crisis is no differentthis crisis is no different

Work is needed along two main two tracks:Work is needed along two main two tracks: making data more accessible and timely; andmaking data more accessible and timely; and addressing new data needs arising from the addressing new data needs arising from the

crisis. crisis. International co-operation and coordination is International co-operation and coordination is

key to achieve success. key to achieve success.

Documents

Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis: Challenges Ahead and Statistical Initiatives at the IMF Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis: