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Macroecology & uneven distributions of wealth. Ken Locey. http://tchester.org/srp/plants/communities/figures/global_biodiversity_by_area.gif. 183,913,348 records of birds in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. Macroecology. …study of ecological relationships - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Macroecology & uneven distributions of wealth
Ken Locey
http://tchester.org/srp/plants/communities/figures/global_biodiversity_by_area.gif
183,913,348 records of birds in theGlobal Biodiversity Information Facility database
Abundance: ni/N
Distribution: f(k;λ) = λke-λ/k!
Diversity: H’ = -Σpi*ln(pi)
…study of ecological relationshipsthat involves characterizing and explaining statistical patterns of…
Macroecology
Land birds
Landmammals
Geographic range patternsN
orth
-Sou
th (k
m)
East-West (km) 100 1,000 10,000
Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE)Ecological phenomenon ∝ M3/4e-E/kt
Temp. corrected max. rate of whole organism biomass production
Slope = 0.76R2 = 0.99
1 3 6 10 14 19 33 38 69 93150
0123456789
10
Species Abundance Distribution
Abundance Class
freq
uenc
y(frequency distribution)
http://encyclopediaurantia.org/images/ROM11.JPG
DATA
Computing
GISMath & Stats
Metabolic rate ∝ M3/4e-E/kt
Information:
Tools
COLLABORATION & SHARING
Code
dev
elop
men
t Sharing
Source networks
GISProgrammingPublished ResearchData managementMath & StatsCollaboration
Undergraduate &Graduate research
Skills
Jobs
Grad School
Center for Macroecology, Evolution, & Climate www.macroecology.ca
macroecology.ku.dk
whitelab.weecology.org
Species Abundance Distribution
Abundance Class
freq
uenc
y(frequency distribution)
1 3 6 10 14 19 33 38 69 93150
0123456789
10
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 361
10
100
Species Abundance Distribution
Rank in Abundance
Abun
danc
e(Rank-abundance distribution)
Wheat Production (tons)
tons62.9 104588178.7
Poverty in Rural America, 2008
Percent in Poverty54.5 - 25 25 - 20 20 – 14.3 14.2 – 12.2 12.1 - 10 10 – 3.1
Distributions of Wealth (DOW)Supreme importance attaches to one economic problem, that of the distribution of wealth. Is there a natural law according to which the wealth of society is divided? – John Bates Clark
Wealth: sources of human welfare which are material, transferable, and limited in quantity.
Total quantity (Q)Community abundanceGlobal Oil ConsumptionGDP, GNP
Number of entities (N)SpeciesNationsEconomic classes
Distributions of Wealth (DOW)
If Q = 10 and N = 3, then:8 unordered ways to sum Npositive integers to obtain Q 8+1+1 7+2+1 6+3+1 6+2+2 5+4+1 5+3+2 4+4+2 4+3+3
Distributions of Wealth (DOW)
Do we observe the average of possible DOWs?
The feasible set(all possible shapes of the DOW)
16,958 shapes forQ = 50 & N = 10
Rank
Wea
lth
Combinatorial Explosion
Q N Size of feasible set
50 10 16,928
500 10 2.013 × 1012
5000 10 1.531 × 1021
Heat mapping the feasible set(or a random sample)
ln(w
ealth
)
Rank
Q=1,000N=80
Heat mapping the feasible set(or a random sample)
ln(a
bund
ance
)
Rank in abundance
ca. 4.02x1029 possible shapes for N=1000 & S=80
Q = Total community abundance (i.e. number of individuals)
N = Species richness (i.e. number of species)
Ecological DOWs(species-abundance distributions)
Obs
erve
d w
ealth
100 101 102
Predicted wealth
102
101
100
R2 per site
OBSERVED: [1, 2, 10, 12, 20, 30, 40, 60, 110]PREDICTED: [1, 2, 11, 11, 22, 28, 43, 50, 117]
R2 = 0.99
Obs
erve
d ab
unda
nce
100 101 102
Predicted abundance
102
101
100
R2 per siteR2 = 0.99R2 = 0.89R2 = 0.80R2 = 0.75
Obs
erve
d ab
unda
nce
100 101 102
Predicted abundance
102
101
100
R2 per siteR2 = 0.99R2 = 0.89R2 = 0.80R2 = 0.75
R2 per site
0.0 1.0
Obs
erve
d ab
unda
nce
100 101 102
Predicted abundance
102
101
100
R2 per site0.0 1.0
R2 = 0.93
Food & Agriculture Organization of the UN
US Dept of Energy, Energy Information Admin.
0.83 0.91 0.93
Predicted supply
Obs
erve
d su
pply
Food supply among nations(1960-2010)
grams/capita/day * 0.1tons * 0.0001grams/capita/day
0.69 0.77 0.91
Predicted pop. size
Obs
erve
d po
p. si
zePopulation sizes among nations
(1960-2009, millions of people)
0.88 0.92 0.92
Predicted
Obs
erve
d
Oil use among nations(1980-2009, barrels per day * 0.01)
Predicted home runs
Obs
erve
d ho
me
runs
0.93 0.88 0.90
0.91 0.91 0.89
0.94 0.93
(2002-2010)http://mlb.mlb.com
Are DOWs similar to the average of possible shapes? …very often
Do Q and N constrain the DOW more than ever realized? …Yup
Is the feasible set good for more than predictions? …Absolutely
Is combinatorial explosion a pain in the *expletive*? …Not for long…?
Funding
• USU College of Science– Willard L. Eccles Fellowship
• NSF CAREER award to Ethan White
• Research grant from Amazon Web Services
Acknowledgments• Individuals, agencies, organizations responsible for the collection
and management of the:– Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Count, Forest Inventory and Analysis,
Mammal Community Database, North American Butterfly Association, Argonne National Laboratory’s MG-RAST metagenomic server
• Colleagues & Collaborators– USU: Ethan White, Xiao Xiao, Dan McGlinn– Berkeley Harte Lab: Justin Kitzes– SESYNC: Bill Burnside
• UCO college of Math and Science
The feasible set as a framework
Understanding
Comparing
Inequality
Perc
entil
e of
the
feas
ible
set
Gini’s coefficient of inequality
The feasible set(all possible values of species evenness)Sp
ecie
s eve
nnes
s
Species richness, S
Total abundance, N = 60
Combinatorial Explosion
Q N Size of feasible set
1000 10 886,745,696,653,253
1000 100 302,194,941,264,401,427,042,462,944,147
1000 900 190,569,292
Feasible sets are dominatedby hollow-curves
Evar
Prob
abili
ty d
ensit
y fu
nctio
nN = 50, S = 205,507 macrostates
N = 50, S = 1016,928 macrostates
Q=50, N=20
Q=50, N=10
Evenness(Smith & Wilson, 1996)
MTE prediction: species richness decreases with temperature (S ∝ Ae-Ea/kT )
Computer Science Student:Biology student:
Chemistry Studentmodels based on chemical kinetics/activation energy
microbe data,reasons why MTEshould (not) workfor microbes
model developmentdata scraping & management
Temperature-richness predictions of MTE do not hold for diverse microbe communities as tested using several models of chemical kinetics. This may be explained by microbial dormancy and dispersal.
+Conclusion(?)
Body mass (g)
Land birds Land mammals
Body-size distributions
Num
ber o
f spe
cies continental
regional
patch