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Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1
Macro Markets Themes for 2016
Francesco Garzarelli Co-Head of Global Macro-Markets Research
and of European Economics
+44(20)7774-5078 02 March 2016 Goldman Sachs International
Investors should consider this research as only a single factor in making investment decisions. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2
A Look Back at 2015
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
US Dollar Strengthens in Trade-Weighted Terms
Trade-weighted currency indices
USD, JPY and EUR, Indexed at May-2014 = 100
Ratio of narrow money base to nominal GDP Q4-2007 = 100
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Jan-16
USD TWI
JPY TWI
EUR TWI
Index
A Look-back at 2015
‘Divergence Between, Convergence Within’
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US
Japan
Euro Area
Index
Monetary Policy Divergence Extends
Bank lending rates to companies in respective countries
Bank Lending Rates in Euro Area Converging
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EUR bn
Germany
Italy
Spain
France
Target 2 Imbalances Still High
Target2 balances in the Euro Area Banking System
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
%
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
...Reinforcing Expectations of
Protracted ‘Low-flation’
Weighted average contribution of energy prices
to headline CPI in G4 vs WTI
A Look-back at 2015
Lower Crude Oil Prices Pull CPI Inflation Down
Lower Energy Prices Is Subtracting
More Than 1% from Headline CPI...
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Weighted average contribution of energycomponent to headline CPI in G4 (LHS)
WTI (RHS)
% $/bbl
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
UST 10 Year Nominal Yield(LHS)
10 Year TIPS (RHS)
%%
Oil Price'Crash'
US 10-year nominal yield and 10-year TIPS
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5 Source: US NOAA, Bloomberg , Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
A Look-back at 2015
Four Global Unanticipated ‘Shocks’
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15
Greek Government
Bond Strip Pr ice
Price
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17
USD/CNY
FWD
GS Forecast
USD/CNY
Greece’s Confrontation with the ‘Troika’
A ‘Rational Bubble’ in German Bunds China’s FX Depreciation
10-year Bund Yield: Actual vs Model ‘Fair Value’
Greek Government Bond Strip Price
USD/CNY: Spot, Forwards and GS Forecasts
A Particularly Strong ‘El Nino’
Sep-Nov US Temperatures vs 1900-2000 Average
50.0
52.5
55.0
57.5
1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015
Temperature: Sep-Nov
Average Sep-Nov. Temperature 1900-2000
Degrees F.
-2.0
-1.8
-1.5
-1.3
-1.0
-0.8
-0.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
DEM 10-yr yield
Sudoku Misvaluation
% Std. Dev .
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6
Where Are We Now?
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7
Source: Consensus Economics, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Headline CPI Inflation
Below Target in 2016...
5.0
5.1
0.8
1.9
2.9
3.5
Emerg- GS
Emerg - CE
Adv - GS
Adv- CE
World - GS
World - CE %
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
USA UK Euro Area Japan
2016 2017 2018 2019%
Consensus Economics, GS Forecasts for World,
Advanced and Emerging Economies in 2016 GS CPI forecasts for USA, UK, Euro Area, Japan
...And in the Years Ahead
in Several Advanced Economies
2% inflation target
Where Are We Now
Inflation Outlook Still Clouded
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
We Expect a 'Managed' CNY Depreciation
GS Current Activity Indicator and GS Market Based China
Growth Risk Factor
A Bumpy Deceleration is Underway in China
USD/CNY: Spot, Forwards and GS Forecasts
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17
USD/CNY Spot
FWD
GS Forecast
USD/CNY
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China CAI
Market-based China Growth Risk Factor
%
Where Are We Now
China Slowing, Policy Easing
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2012 2013 2014 2015
EM FX Real TWI
CNY Real TWI
Index
33%
CNY Has Appreciated vs EM Peers
China Real Trade Weighted Exchange Rate
vs Other EM Majors
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research
Where Are We Now
Bonds as Stretched as in Early 2015...
-4
-2
0
2
4
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
10-year Bund Misvaluation
+/- 1 Std. Dev
+/-1 2 Std. Dev
Cheap
Expensive
Std.Dev
German Bunds: Model Over/Undervaluation
US Treasuries: Model Over/Undervaluation
1
2
3
4
5
2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016
US 10-yr yield
Sudoku 'Fair' Value
Current Market Pricing
GS Forecast
%
US Treasuries: Actual and Model ‘Fair Value’
0
1
2
3
4
2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016
DEM 10-yr yieldSudoku 'Fair' ValueCurrent Market PricingGS Forecast
%
German Bunds: Actual and Model ‘Fair Value’
QE + forward guidance
QE + forward guidance
On current
consensus
macro forecasts,
a 2SD even on
TY10 is at 1.75% -4
-2
0
2
4
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
10-year UST Misvaluation
+/- 1 Std. Dev
+/-1 2 Std. Dev
Cheap
Expensive
Std.Dev
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 10
-0.3
0.7
1.7
2.7
3.7
4.7
t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10 t+12 t+14 t+16 t+18 t+20 t+22 t+24Months (t = Month of rate hike)
2004
1999
1993
1988
25 Feb 2016
Source: Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Expectations on the ‘Neutral Rate’ (R*)
Usually Rise as Fed Hikes
5-yr- 5-yr ‘risk neutral’ US $ rates
estimated by Adrian, Crump and Moench (2013)
Term Premium Drops 2 Quarters After the
First Hike, But From Much Higher Levels
5-yr- 5-yr ‘term premium’ on US $ rates
estimated by Adrian, Crump and Moench (2013)
Where Are We Now
Low ‘Neutral’ Rate, No Premium in Bonds
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
t-4 t-2 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10 t+12 t+14 t+16 t+18 t+20 t+22 t+24Months (t = Month of rate hike)
2004
1999
1993
1988
25 Feb 2016
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Yields in G-4 Have Co-Moved
Since Start of Year
10-Year bond yields in US, Germany, UK and Japan
But JGBs have Been in the Driving Seat
Cumulative rate shocks for yields of 10-year USTs, German
Bunds, UK Gilts and JGBs, computed using Rigobon (2003)
methodology
Where Are We Now
Japan in the Driving Seat for Rate Rally
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16
US
UK
Japan
Germany
Cumulativestandard errors
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
UK
US
Japan (RHS)
Germany (RHS)
% %
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 12
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Probability low inflation
Probability medium inflation
Probability high inflation
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
...And Sees Very High Chance of Persistent
Low-flation in the Euro area
Market Still Assigns High Probability
to Moderate Inflation in the US…
Option-implied probability distribution of 5-year inflation by strike
‘clusters’: low inflation (≤1%), medium, and high (≥3%)
Option-implied probability distribution of 5-year inflation by strike
‘clusters’: low inflation (≤1%), medium, and high (≥3%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Probability low inflation
Probability medium inflation
Probability high inflation
Where Are We Now
The Market Prices Persistent Low-flation
40%
70%
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 13
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
'Market-Implied' Pricing of Core-CPI is
too Low Relative to GS Forecasts
US core CPI (YoY), market implied pricing of core CPI
and GS forecasts
WTI, GS Forecast, Oil Forwards and market implied path
for WTI if Core-CPI has to stay at 2%
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 Feb-17 Sep-17
US Core-CPI (YoY)
GS Forecast
Market Implied Pricing of 'Core-CPI'
%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 Feb-17 Sep-17
WTI
GS Forecast
Oil Forwards
Market Price Needed for Core-CPI at 2%
$/bbl
Market Pricing Sub-20 $/bbl Oil Prices
for Core-CPI to stay at 2%
Where Are We Now
Or Discounts ‘Crash Risk’ in Oil Prices
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 14
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
..Compressing Periphery-Core Spreads
Difference between Italy-Germany 30-year government bond
spread and 5-year spread (in asset swaps)
ECB Absorbs Around Half
of Overall Gross Issuance..
Estimated ECB purchases under PSPP for 2016
as percentage of gross bond issuance
Where Are We Now
ECB Gluing EMU Bond Markets Together
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Germany France Italy Spain
ECB purchases 2016/government bond grossissuance 2016
%
median
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Italy-Germany TermStructure of Spreads
%
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 15
What to Expect Through 2016
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 16
Source: Consensus Economics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
US 2016 Real GDP Growth: GS forecast vs
kernel distribution of consensus projection
Euro area 2016 Real GDP Growth: GS forecast vs
kernel distribution of consensus projection
Distribution of US Growth Expectations
Is Fairly Symmetric Heavy Left Tail in Distribution of Euro
area Growth Forecasts
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2
Consensus 2016
GS 2016
Density
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9
Consensus 2016
GS 2016
Density
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
Europe Will Beat Its Growth Potential
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 17
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
...As Is the Case Across Most Economies
US Manufacturing and Services PMI
US Tertiary Activity Continues to Expand
In Face of an Industrial Slowdown...
Global PMIs: Manufacturing and Services
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
The Services Sector Will Carry the Day
48
50
52
54
56
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Global Manufacturing PMI
Global Services PMI
Index48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US Manufacturing PMI
US Services PMI
Index
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 18
US Government Sector Expected to
Add to US Growth in 2016-18
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
From the ‘End of Austerity’ (2014-15)’ to
A Synchronous Fiscal Expansion
Contribution of US Government Consumption and Capex
to US Real GDP Growth
Estimates of contribution of fiscal policy
annual real GDP growth in selected countries
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
The Fiscal Stance Will Turn More Expansionary
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Contribution of US GovernmentSpending to Real GDP Growth
%
GS Forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
USA Euro Area Japan China
2015
2016
bp
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 19
Source: Japan Ministry of Finance, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
ECB and BoJ Alleviate ‘Debt Overhang’
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Mar-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Jul-13 May-14 Mar-15 Jan-16 Nov-16
Average Maturity of JGBs in BoJs Balance Sheet (LHS)
Forecast Average Maturity of JGBs in BoJs BalanceSheet (LHS)
Average Maturity of JGB's at Issuance (RHS)
years years
4
10
16
22
28
34
40
46
52
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP (LHS)
GS projections assuming QQE runs at 80trn Yen/year (RHS)
BoJ Holding of JGB's as % of Total (RHS)
% %
GS Forecast
BoJ on Course to Hold Almost Half of Japan’s
Public Debt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Germany France Italy Spain
2017 (LHS)
2016 (LHS)
2015 (LHS)
Average Maturity of ECB Purchases (RHS)
Average Maturity of Stock Outstanding (RHS)
ECB purchases in year X as a % of
stock of bonds in end of year X
years
BoJ QQE Has Afforded Debt Maturity Extension
Outstanding stock of government bonds, ECB purchases and
respective average maturities
ECB QE Alleviates the Public Debt ‘Overhang’
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
yr<2 2≤yr<3 3≤yr<4 4≤yr<5 5≤yr<6 6≤yr<7 7≤yr<8 8≤yr<10 10≤yr<1515≤yr<30
33% of Eligible Stock
Debt with Yield Above Deposit Rate
Debt with Yield Below Deposit Rate
Eur Bn
..But Aggravates Bund ‘Scarcity’ Concerns..
Amount of German government bonds eligible for PSPP under current
programme parameters
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
00 01 03 04 06 07 09 10 12 13 15 16
Global Oil Imbalance
WTI Price (RHS)
kbd $/bbl
Source: IEA, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research
WTI Ranging Between US$ 40-50
In the ‘New Oil Order’
Contribution of Energy to Variance of
Headline CPI Variance Set to Decline
Variance of Headline US CPI and Energy Component
(weighted) Global Balance of Oil Demand-Supply and WTI Prices,
Historical and GS Forecasts
The market imbalance estimates are based on IEA data and GS
forecasts, as the WTI price projections.
Decline in the
variance of
headline inflation
attributable to
energy...
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Variance of EnergyComponent
Variance ofHeadline Inflation
bps
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
Oil Prices will be ‘Lower for Longer’
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 21
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
Central Banks Will Continue Reflating
“There are adverse global developments [making it difficult to reach] our
objective. Is this a good reason to give up? No, it's not a good reason to
give up. How do you give up? Either accepting a lower objective, which
we don't do; or saying that this objective will be reached in a certain very
large number of years, and we don't do that either. We don't give up”.
Mario Draghi, ECB President,
January 2016
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 22
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
We See US ‘Domestic’ Inflation Accelerating...
Higher Trend in US Service Inflation US Inflation Increase Led by ‘Core’
0
1
2
3
4
2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2014 2015
Infla tion (yoy)
16%-tile
Trend
84%-tile
%
US CPI Inflation: contribution by component
and GS projections vs market US service inflation trend estimated
using Stock-Watson (2007) procedure
-2.5
-1.0
0.5
2.0
3.5
5.0
Jan-10 Feb-11 Mar-12 Apr-13 May-14 Jun-15 Jul-16 Aug-17 Sep-18
Non energy industrial goods
Energy
Food
Services
Headline
GS CPI Forecast
Market Pricing Implied from Inflation Swaps
%
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 23
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Price Effects on Market Inflation:
Strong, But Transient
VAR estimate of the impact of a 10% crude oil price ‘shock’
on US 10-year breakeven inflation
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
...Setting the Fed’s ‘Flight Path’
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Impact on Breakeven Inflation in bps (LHS)
Trajectory of Breakeven Inflation (RHS)
bp
Breakeven Inflation Level (set at 1.6% on shock impact)
Following a 10% decline in oil price
%
The Market Prices that the Fed
Will Struggle to Meet Its Inflation Target
US 10-year Inflation Swaps: actual and
estimates of ‘fair value’ based on GS iSwap model
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 15yr 20yr
%
+/- 2 Std dev
+/- 1 Std dev
Current US Inflation Swap
Fair
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 24
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
The Jury Is Still Out in the Euroarea and Japan
Euro area Service Inflation Stable at Low Levels Euro Inflation Below ECB Target
0
1
2
3
2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2014 2015
Inflation (yoy)
16%-tile
Trend
84%-tile
%%
Euro-Area Service Inflation trend estimated
using Stock-Watson (2007) procedure
Euro Area CPI Inflation: contribution by component
and GS projections vs market
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan-10 Feb-11 Mar-12 Apr-13 May-14 Jun-15 Jul-16 Aug-17 Sep-18
Non-energy industria l goods
Energy
Food
Services
Headline
GS CPI Forecast
Market Pricing Implied from Inflation Swaps
%
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Jan-10 Feb-11 Mar-12 Apr-13 May-14 Jun-15 Jul-16 Aug-17 Sep-18
Non energy industrial goodsEnergyFoodServicesHICP (sum of components)GS CPI ForecastMarket Pricing Implied by Inflation Swaps
%
...And Improving Very Slowly in Japan
Japan CPI Inflation: contribution by component
and GS projections vs market
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2014 2015
Infla tion (yoy)
16%-tile
Trend
84%-tile
%
Around Zero in Japan
Japan Service Inflation trend estimated
using Stock-Watson (2007) procedure
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 25
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
EM Rebalancing Is Underway
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EM FX vs USD (rolling 2-year return)
Average Valuation signal (FEER/GSDEER)
Overvaluation/depreciation
Note: v aluations are quarterly , and are adjusted f or 2-y ear-ahead (consensus) inf lation dif f erential; CE-4 currencies v aluations/dy namics are measured against the EUR; please see the main paper f or the v aluations relativ e to the
latest spot
Historical EM FX performance vs. “ex ante” valuation signals
EM FX Has Entered Undervalued Territory
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CLP ZAR PEN IDR BRL TWD MXN COP RUB NGN
Oil
Precious meta ls
Base meta ls
Bulk commodities
Commodity exposure (% net exports of GDP)
Greater exposure to oil prices
Greater exposure to metals/bulks
Precious metals: Gold, Silver; Base Metals: Aluminium,
Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Lead; Bulk Commodities: Iron Ore, Coal
Differential Impact of Commodity Price
Slide on Exporters
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 26
A Projected 10% Decline in Foreign Official
Sector Ownership of US Treasuries
Source: Federal Reserve Board, US Department of Treasury, IMF COFER, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Trend in Net Foreign Purchases of USTs
Negative to the Tune of US$200bn
Foreign official sector holding of US Treasury bills and
bonds as a share of total stock of Treasuries outstanding
Trend component (estimated through a HP filter) of monthly net
purchases of US Treasuries by the foreign official sector
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016
Foreign Official sector holding of US Treasuries
as a share of stock outstanding
Pro jections based on past 12-month trend flows
%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015
HPF-trend component of monthly
net purchases of US treasuries byforeign officia l sector
USD billions Peak in March 2011
What Will Drive Macro Markets in 2016
A Further Decline in EM FX Reserves
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 27
Disclaimer
I, Francesco Garzarelli, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal view, which have not been influenced by considerations of
the firm’s business or client relationships.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division.
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Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 28
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