Macro Economics

ECONOMICS

MACROECONOMICS MICROECONOMICS

What Macroeconomist Study?

Why have some countries experienced rapid growth in incomes over the past century while others stay mired in poverty?

Why do some countries have high rates inflation while others maintain stable price?

Why do all countries experience recessions and depressions – recurrent periods of falling income and rising unemployment and how government policy reduce the frequency and severity of these episodes?

Macroeconomist, the study of the economy as a whole, attempts to answer these and many related questions

Theory as Model Building

Models are simplified theories that show the key relationships among economic variables

Exogenous variables

Endogenous variables

Economic model

TUJUANMODEL: MENUNJUKKAN BAGAIMANA VARIABEL EKSOGEN MEMPENGARUHI VARIABEL ENDOGEN

Figure 1. The Working of an Economic Model

Qd = f ( P, Y) Qs = f ( P, Pm) Qs = Qd

P

Q

Demand

Supply

Market Equilibrium

Figure 1.2 The Model Supply and Demand

P2

P1

Q1 Q2Q

P

D1D2

S

S1

S2

Q2 Q1

P1

P2

Q

P

(a). A Shift in Demand

(b) A Shift in Supply

D1

Using Function to Express Relationships Among Variables

A function is a mathematical concept that show one variable depends on a set of other variables

QD = F (P, Y)

QD = 60 – 10P + 2Y

Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole - including growth in income, changes in prices and rate of unemployment. Macroeconomist attempt both to explain economic events and to devise policies to improve economic performance

To understand the economy, economist use model – theories that simplify reality in order to reveal show how exogenous variable influence endogenous variables. The art in the science of economics is in judging whether a model captures the important economic relationships for the matter at hand. Because no single model can answer all questions, macroeconomist use different model to look at different issues

A.Flows and Stocks Variables

B.Some Frequently Used Terms

(i). Output (Product), Income & Expenditure

(ii). Domestic and National

(iii). Gross and Net

(iv). Markets Price and Factor Cost

(v). Nominal and Real

NATIONAL-INCOME ACCOUNTING: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND THE PRICE LEVEL

Chapter 2 (Macroeconomics: A Modern Approach)

C. Aggregate Income, Output (Product) & Expenditure

(i). The Simplest Economy: Households & Firms

Households Firms

Factors of Production

Income (Y)

Consumers Expenditure

Goods & Services

Figure 4. Real and Money Flows in the Simplest Economy

Money flow: Continuous lines Real flow: Dash lines

(ii). Saving by Households

HOUSEHOLDS FIRMS C FIRMS K

Investment Expenditure

Consumers Expenditure

Consumers Goods


Incomes

Factors of ProductionIncomes

Capital Goods

Saving

Figure 5. Real & Money Flows in Economy with Saving & Investment

H FGoods & Services

Consumers Expenditures (C)

Incomes (Y)


InvestmentSaving

Figure 6. Real & Money Flow in an Economy with Saving & Investment Simplified

Y = C + I Y = C + S

S = I

H F

S I

Y

C

Figure 7. The Money Flows in an Economy with Saving and Investment – A More Abstract Representation

(iii). Government Expenditure and Taxes

H GOV F

T G

H GOV F RT G

(iv). The Rest of the World

IM

EX

S I

SI

Y = C + I + G Y = C + S + T

Y = C + I + G + EX - IM

I + G + EX = S + T + IM

(I-S) + (G – T) + (EX – IM) = O

D. Measuring Aggregate Income

(i). The Expenditure Approach

(ii). The Factor Income Approach

(iii). The Output Approach

MEASURING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)

GDP A MEASURE OF THE VALUE OF ALL GOODS & SERVICES NEWLY PRODUCED IN AN ECONOMY DURING A SPECIFIED PERIOD OF TIME

WHAT?

WHRE?

WHEN?

GDP VS GNP

THREE WAYS OF MEASURING GDP

1. THE PRODUCTION APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP

2. THE SPENDING APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP

3. THE INCOME APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP

MANFAAT DIKETAHUINYA GDP:

1. MENGUKUR PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

2. MENGETAHUI STRUKTUR EKONOMI

3. MEMBANDINGKAN PEREKONOMIAN ANTAR NEGARA

What Determines the Demand for Goods & Services?

The four component of GDP:

1. Consumption (C)

2. Investment (I)

3. Government purchases (G)

4. Net Export (NX)

Y = C + I + G + (X - M)

Consumption C = C(Y-T) MPC

MPC

Consumption function

C

Y- T

The Consumption Function

0,70

1. John Maynard Keynes and the Consumption Function

2. Irving Fisher and Inter temporal Choice

3. Franco Modigliani and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis

4. Milton Friedman and the Permanent-Income Hypothesis

5. Robert Hall and the Random-Walk Hypothesis

TEORI-TEORI KONSUMSI

Investment I = I (r)

The nominal interest rate

The real interest rate

r

I

The investment Function

I = I (r)

Government Purchases

G = T a balance budget

20% of GDP

G = G T = T

Equilibrium in the Market for Goods and Services:

The Supply and Demand for the Economy Output

Y = C + I + G

C = C(Y- T)

I = I(r)

G = G

T = T

Y = F(K, L)

= Y

Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G

Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G

Equilibrium in the Financial Markets:

The Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds

Y – C – G = I

S = (Y-T-C) + (T- G) = I

Y- C(Y-T) - G = I(r)

Y- C(Y-T) - G = I(r)

S = I(r)

Real interest rate

Investment, Saving

Saving (S)

S

Desired investment, I(r)

Equilibrium r

Saving, Investment and the Interest Rate

Changes in Saving: The effects of Fiscal Policy

MONETARY THEORY AND POLICY

APAKAH TEORI MONETER?

TEORI MONETER: TEORI MENGENAI PASAR UANG

TEORI MENGENAI PERMINTAAN (MD) PENAWARAN UANG (MS)

INTI TEORI MONETER: ANALISIS TENTANG FAKTOR2 APA YG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN AKAN UANG (DEMAND FOR MONEY) DAN FAKTOR2 APA YG MEMPENGARUHI PENAWARAN UANG (SUPPLY OF MONEY)

PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN DI PASAR UANG

AKAN MENENTUKAN HARGA:

1. TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA

2. TINGKAT HARGA UMUM

KEYNES & KEYNESIANS

CLASSIC & MONETARIST

IMPLIKASI TEROTIS & KEBIJAKAN YG BERBEDA

MENGAPA PERUBAHAN KONDISI PASAR UANG YANG DICERMINKAN OLEH PERUBAHAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA ATAU TINGKAT HARGA PENTING ????

DEFINING MONEY BY ITS FUNCTIONS:

1. MEANS OF EXCHANGE (PAYMENT)

2. MEASURE OF VALUE

3. THE UNIT OF ACCOUNT

4. THE STORE OF VALUE OR STORE OF WEALTH

DEFINING MONEY BY ITS FUNCTIONS:

1. MEANS OF EXCHANGE (PAYMENT)

2. MEASURE OF VALUE

3. THE UNIT OF ACCOUNT

4. THE STORE OF VALUE OR STORE OF WEALTH

THE STORE OF VALUE OR STORE OF WEALTH:

TEORI KUANTITAS & KEYNESIANS SEPAKAT MENGENAI

KEPUTUSAN MENGENAI BERAPA BESAR UANG TUNAI YG KITA PEGANG ATAU BERAPA BESAR SALDO POS “KAS” YG KITA INGINKAN DLM NERACA KITA. MERUPAKAN KEPUTUSAN EKONOMIS YG KITA DASARKAN ATAS UNTUNG-RUGI. KEPUTUSAN TENTANG: SALDO KAS VS MEMBELI SURAT BERHARGA (BONDS OR STOCKS)

KESEIMBANGAN PASAR UANG TERJADI JIKA:

MS = MD

MS = MONEY SUPPLY

DEFINISI UANG MENURUT PENCIPTANYA:

(1). MONEY BASE (RESERVE MONEY OR HIGH-POWER MONEY), (2). M1= KARTAL +GIRAL) & (3). M2 = M1 + QUASI MONEY

MS = f (Y, rKRDT, rDEPO,A).B

MS = f (Y, rKRDT, rDEPO,A).B (X1, X2,….Xn)

UANG PRIMER: MONETARY BASE (B)

(ALN-PLN) + (TP-DP) + (TB) + (AL-PL) = C + R = B = MO

AKTIVA PASIVA

AKTIVA LUAR NEGERI (ALN)

TAGIHAN PADA PEMERINTAH (TP)

TAGIHAN PADA BANK-BANK UMUM (TB)

AKTIVA LAIN (AL)

UANG KARTAL YG ADA DIMASYARAKAT (C)

CADANGAN BANK UMUM (R)

DEPOSITO PEMERINTAH (DP)

PASIVA LUAR NEGERI (PLN)

PASIVA LAIN (PL)

TABEL 1.1 NERACA KONSOLIDASI OTORITAS MONETER

FAKTOR2 YG MEMPENGARUHI UANG PRIMER

ANGKA PENGGANDA UANG: MONEY MULTIPLIER (m)

MS = mB

CP = mc B

DD = md B

M1 = m1 B

QM = mq B

M2 = m2 B

m = B/ MS

PENCIPTAAN KOMPONEN UANG BEREDAR OLEH SISTEM PERBANKAN

PENCIPTAAN KOMPONEN UANG BEREDAR OLEH SISTEM PERBANKAN

SC = TPSb + TPPb = mb.B

KETERANGAN:

mb = ANGKA PENGGANDA AKTIVA BPUG

TPSb = TAGIHAN PADA SEKTOR PEMERINTAH

TPPb = TAGIHAN PADA PERUSAHAAN &PERORANGAN

THE DEMAND FOR MONEY

THE QUANTITY THEORY 0F MONEY AND CAMRIDGE APROACH

MV = PT

MV = PY

IRVING FISHER

CAMBRIDGE APROACH

Md = 1/V.PY V = 1/k

Md = k PY

PENDAPATAN NASIONAL RIIL (Y) & k ADALAH KOSTAN

Y = GDP REAL

THE INTEREST RATE AS A DETERMINANT OF MONEY DEMAND

KEYNES (1936) INTRODUCE S THREE MOTIVESS FOR HOLDING MONEY

1. A TRANSSACTION MOTIVE (BUSSINES MOTIVE): Mt

2. A PRECAUTIONARY MOTIVE (Mp)

3. A SPECULATIVE MOTIVE (Ms)

1. A TRANSSACTION MOTIVE (BUSSINES MOTIVE): Mt

2. A PRECAUTIONARY MOTIVE (Mp)

3. A SPECULATIVE MOTIVE (Ms)

Mt + Mp = f (Y)

Ms = f (r) K = r P P = K/r

HOW THE QUANTITY OF MONEY IS CONTROLLED?

THE QUANTITY OF MONEY A VAILABLE IN AN ECONOMY IS CALLED THE MONEY SUPPLY (MS)

THE CONTROL OVER THE MONEY SUPPLY IS CALLED MONETARY POLICY

IN INDONESIA & MANY OTHER COUNTRIES, MONETARY POLICY IS DELEGATED TO INDEPENDENT INSTITUTION

CALLED THE CENTRAL BANK (BI)

UU NO.23 TAHUN 1999 & UU NO.3 TAHUN 2004

INFLATION & MONEY GROWTH

SEIGNIORAGE: THE REVENUE FROM PRINTING MONEY

INFLATION & INTEREST RATES

INTEREST RATES: NOMINAL & REAL

i = r + π

r = i - π

Fisher equation

The nominal interest rate can change for two reasons: because the real interest rate changes or because the inflation rate changes

The Quantity Theory of Money: the rate of money growth determines the rate of inflation

The Fisher equation: the real interest rate & the inflation rate together to determine the nominal interest rate

The Quantity Theory of Money & The Fisher Equation together tell us how money growth affects the nominal interest rate

According the Quantity theory: an increase in the rate of money growth of 1 percent cause a 1 percent increase in the rate of inflation. According to the Fisher Equation: a 1 percent increase in the rate of inflation in turn causes a 1 percent increase in the nominal interest rate

The One-for-One relation between the inflation rate and the nominal interest rate is called the Fisher Effect

Two Real Interest Rates: Ex Ante & Ex Post

The ex ante real interest rate: Tingkat bunga riil yg diharapkan pemberi pinjaman & peminjam ketika kesepakatan dibuat

The ex post real interest rate: Tingkat bunga riil yg terealisasi secara nyata

Transmissions Mechanism Monetary PolicyIn

stru

men

ts

Operational Target

Intermediate Target

Final Target

JANGKAR NOMINAL

Inflation Targeting

SKEMA 1. KERANGKA OPERASI KEBIJAKAN MONETER

SISTEM OPERASI KEBIJAKAN MONETER

Quantity Approach: TEORI KUANTITAS: MV = PT

Interest Rate or Price Approach: TEORI Keynesians

INSTRUMEN-INSTRUMEN: LANGSUNG & TIDAK LANGSUNG

INSTRUMEN TDK LANGSUNG:

1. OPERASI PASAR TERBUKA (OPT)

2. GIRO WAJIB MINIMUM

3. TINGKAT BUNGA DISKONTO

4. INSTRUMEN PERSUASIF

SECARA UMUM: MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER MENGGAMBARKAN BAGAIMANA KEBIJAKAN MONETER OLEH BANK SENTRAL DPT MEMPENGARUHI AKTIVITAS EK & KEUANGAN HINGGA TERWUJUDNYA FINAL TARGET (INFLASI)

SECARA SPESIFIK Taylor (1995): The process through which monetary policy decision are transmitted into changes in real GDP and inflation

KEBIJAKAN MONETER ?

TUJUAN AKHIR:

INFLASI

SKEMA 2. MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER “ Black Box”

JALUR-JALUR MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETERJALUR-JALUR MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER

1. JALUR UANG (Money Channel)

2. JALUR SUKU BUNGA ( Interest rate Channel)

3. JALUR NILAI TUKAR ( Exchange Rate Channel)

4. JALUR HARGA ASET ( Asset Price Channel)

5. JALUR KREDIT (Credit Channel)

6. JALUR EKSPEKTASI ( Expectation Channel)

Inflation Targeting Framework

KARATERISTIK UTAMA: MODEL ITF DIJADIKANNYA TARGET INFLASI SEBAGAI

TUJUAN POKOK KEB. MONETER. SASARAN YG HARUS DICAPAI ADALAH INFLASI YG RENDAH &

STABIL (MASSON ET AL,1998)

OPEN ECONOMY

DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA PENGELUARAN U PERIODE TERTENTU TIDK PERLU SAMA DGN HASIL PRODUKSI BARANG & JASA

PERAN EKSPOR NETO = 60% THDP PDB

DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERTUTUP, SELURUH OUTPUT DIJUAL DI PASAR

DOMESTIK & PENGELUARAN DIBAGI MENJADI 3 KOMPONEN: C, I & G. DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA SEBAGIAN OUTPUT DI EKSPOR & DI JUAL DI PASAR DOMESTIK, PENGELUARAN DIBAGI MENJADI 4 BAGIAN:

C, I, G & EX

Y = C + I + G + EXY = C + I + G + EX

Y = C + I + G + EX - IM

Y = C + I + G + NX

NX = Y - (C + I + G )

Y – C – G = I + NX

Y – C – G = TABUNGAN NASIONAL (S)

Y – T – C = TABUNGAN PERSEORANGAN

T – G = TABUNGAN PEMERINTAH

S = I + NX

S - I = NX

PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER

IS

B

A

LM1

LM2

Y1 Y2 Y

r

r1

r2

GAMBAR: PENINGKATAN MONEY SUPPLY (MS)

INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER

IS1

LM1

Y2 Y1 Y

r

r1

r2

DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK: MS KONSTAN

IS2


IS1

LM1

Y2 Y1 Y

r

r1

r2

DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK: MS KONSTAN

IS2


IS1

LM2

Y2 Y1 Y

r

r

DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK: r KONSTAN

IS2

LM1


IS1

LM1

YY

r

r1

DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK: Y KONSTAN

IS2

LM2

r2

PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI

PASAL 7 AYAT (1) UU N0.3/2004 TENTANG BI

TUJUAN BI ADALAH MENCAPAI & MEMELIHARA KESTABILAN NILAI RUPIAH.

KESTABILAN NILAI RUPIAH BISA DILIHAT DARI SISI INTERNAL YAITU INFLASI & SISI EKSTERNAL YAITU STABLITAS NILAI TUKAR

INFLATION TARGETING

FREE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE

EXCHANGE RATE PASS TRHOUGH: PENJUMLAHAN DIRECT & INDIRECT PASS-THROUGH EFFECT

JALUR TRANSMISI INFLASI YG BERASAL DARI FAKTOR EKSTERNAL ADA 2, YAITU: Direct Pass-Through Effect & Indirect Pass-Through Effect

Direct Pass-Through Effect: JALUR TRANSMIS “DAMPAK LANGSUNG” NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI MELALUI BARANG-BARANG IMPOR (IMPORTED INFLATION): DAMPAK MELALUI IMPOR BARANG KONSUMSI DINAMAKAN First Direct Pass-Through Effect, SEDANGKAN DAMPAK MELALUI IMPOR BAHAN BAKU & BARANG MODAL DINAMAKAN: Second Direct Pass-Through Effect

Indirect Pass-Through Effect: TRANSMISI TIDAK LANGSUNG PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI ADALAH MELALUI DEMAN FULL, DIMANA KENAIKAN HARGA LUAR NEGERI ATAU KENAIKAN MATA UANG ASING TERHADAP RUPIAH MENGAKIBATKAN PENINGKATAN PENGHASILAN PRODUSEN EKSPORTIR DOMESTIK SEHINGGA PERMINTAAN MEREKA AKAN BARANG & JASA DI DLM NEGERI IKUT MENINGKAT YANG PADA AKHIRNYA MENDORONG KENAIKAN HARGA2 DI DLM NEGERI.

DI NEGARA MAJU/INDUSTRI, DAMPAK DEPRESIASI NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERMINTAAN DLM NEGERI ADALAH POSITIF, UNTUK KASUS NEGARA BERKEMBANG TERMASUK INDONESIA HAL INI TDK TERJADI ????

EKSPEKTASI INFLASI DAN NILAI TUKAR

EKSPEKTASI BERKAITAN DGN POLA PERILAKU PASAR DLM MENERIMA SUATU INFORMASI. JENIS INFORMASI YG MEREKA TERIMA AKAN BERVARIASI (ASYMETRIC INFORMATION) & POLA PERILAKU MEREKAPUN BERBEDA-BEDA DLM MERESPON SUATU JENIS INFORMASI YANG SAMA, BAHKAN TERKADANG AKAN TERDAPAT PERILAKU IRASIONAL DLM MERESPON SUATU INFORMASI. EKSPEKTASI INI TERDAPAT DI PASAR BARANG, PASAR UANG & PASAR TENAGA KERJA, DIMANA MASING-MASING MEMPUNYAI SALING KETERKAITAN & MEMPUNYAI DAMPAK TERHADAP PERKEMBANGAN HARGA-HARGA (INFLASI).

EKSPEKTASI MASYARAKAT TERHADAP PERKEMBANGAN HARGA-HARGA (INFLASI) DIYAKINI TERBENTUK DARI: backward looking expectation & forward looking expectation

Backward Looking Expectation MENGASUMSIKAN BAHWA INFLASI YG TERJADI PD PERIODE SEBELUMNYA AKAN TERJADI PD SAAT INI & MASA MENDATANG

Forward Looking Expectation MENGGUNAKAN INFORMASI MENGENAI KEJADIAN YG AKAN TERJADI PD PERIODE MENDATANG SEBAGAI VARIABEL YG BERPENGARUH PD SAAT INI.

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Macro Economics